MARK BELLING’S 2019 PICKS

OVERVIEW

The scratch of certain race favorite leaves this year’s Derby completely wide open. That, and the likelihood of a wet track, make the race very hard to predict this year. I WANT TO STRESS RIGHT NOW THAT I DO NOT HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THE RACE. If the track is indeed wet there is a chance frontrunners will do well throughout the day and their chances should be moved up in your assessment.

My format this year is a little different. Rather than list every horse, I will list my prediction followed by an analysis and then some additional information. The projected odds may also be off quite a bit from the actual wagering as bettors scramble to figure things out with the absence of Omaha Beach.

PREDICTION

HORSE PROGRAM ODDS #5 5-1 #16 9-2 #7 8-1 #19 SPINOFF 30-1 #2 TAX 20-1 #13 CODE OF HONOR 12-1 #20 30-1 #17 ROADSTER 5-1 #11 HAIKAL 30-1 #8 8-1 #21 BODEXPRESS 30-1 #1 15-1 #6 VEKOMA 15-1 #18 LONG RANGE TODDY 30-1

ANALYSIS

The above horses are the ones I give at least some shot to win and they are listed in order of preference.

Bob Baffert has trained two Triple Crown winners in the last four years and is the most successful Kentucky Derby trainer in modern times. He trains my top two choices. I slightly prefer Improbable over Game Winner for two reasons: Improbable’s Irad Ortiz is the best rider in America (in my opinion) and Game Winner will likely get a very wide trip because his rider knows he hates running directly behind other horses. Improbable ran a great second to Omaha Beach three weeks ago in the despite not responding well to wearing blinkers for the first time. They’re taken back off for this race. The horse has enough tactical speed to be close to the pace and always finishes well. He is bred to run well on a wet track.

Game Winner has never been worse than second in his career and was last year’s two-year-old champion. He figures to actually improve off his narrow loss last race to stablemate Roadster. Roadster is also trained by Baffert but he is bred for shorter races than this.

Maximum Security is the hardest horse in the race to assess. He has won all four of his career stars and romped in the five weeks ago. But his trainer and owner debuted him in a maiden claiming race in which he could have been taken by another owner for a very cheap price. There has to be a physical problem somewhere. That said, trainer Jason Servis is winning races at an astonishing rate and has attracted suspicions. His horses all have slow workouts and it is hard to assess their current condition. The horse might win and might finish last. He’s that hard of a read.

Spinoff is a live longshot from excellent trainer . The horse is lightly raced and bred to run long races like the Derby. Tax is very game and never quits. Code of Honor and Country House will both come from way back and have chances if the track favors closers or the race pace is really fast. Tacitus is coming off a dominant win, but I think he has peaked. Bodexpress actually has a legit shot! He drew into the race because of Omaha Beach’s scratch but he is improving every race. Just one thing: he has never actually won a race and it is a stretch to think he could “break his maiden” in the Derby.

SOME WAGERS

These bets are listed in order of preference.

A win, place and show bet on #5.

50-cent trifecta 5-7-16-19 with 2-5-7-16-19 with 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-11-13-16-17-18-19-20-21 ($104)

50-cent trifecta 5 with 2-7-16-19 with all ($36)

OTHER RACES

The best horse I currently co-own, Talk Veuve to Me, runs in Race 6 at in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff. She won a Grade 3 last year and was second in a Grade 1. She’s listed at 4-1 odds and has a chance. Post time is 12:13 central and the race is on NBC Sports Network.

Some races on the Churchill Downs card I like are: Race 1, #5 Curate (5-2) Race 7, #5 Daddy Is a Legend (5-1) Race 9, #2 Social Paranoia (10-1) Race 14, #5 Tony Small (12-1)

KENTUCKY OAKS

In Friday's race for three-year-old fillies, I like #10 Champagne Anyone (6-1).