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MS Print Design Asia Pacific Insight English MM September 8, 2019 09:00 PM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility Drive to Turnaround in 2020 2019 has seen the weakest sales for the Chinese auto market in decades. However, we expect a replacement cycle to kick in from 2020, for a turnaround which could benefit Japanese and luxury brands on upgrade demand. Trough valuations lead us to raise our Industry View to Attractive. We also upgrade SAIC to OW. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. MM Contributors MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Jack Yeung Lillian Lou Frank Wan Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Research Associate +852 2239-7843 +852 2848-6502 +852 2239-1229 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Tim Hsiao Shelley Wang, CFA Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +852 2848-1982 +852 3963-0047 [email protected] [email protected] MM China Autos & Shared Mobility Drive to Turnaround in 2020 2019 has seen the weakest sales for the Chinese auto market in decades. However, we expect a replacement cycle to kick in from 2020, for a turnaround which could benefit Japanese and luxury brands on upgrade demand. Trough valuations lead us to raise our Industry View to Attractive. We also upgrade SAIC to OW. SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. From To Possible auto stimulus: On August 27, 2019, China's State Council WHAT’S Rating Equal-weight Overweight CHANGED issued a policy package to promote consumption. For the auto sector, Dongfeng Motor Group Price Target HK$8.00 HK$10.00 it urged local governments to gradually loosen or cancel existing China Autos & Shared Mobility license plate restrictions, according to the local situation. It also Industry View In-Line Attractive urged local governments with sufficient resources to support the purchase of NEVs. We believe the local governments may implement these policies in 2020 which could support auto demand. Auto sales set to improve in 2020 after poor 2019: With lack- Outlook for 2H19 and 2020: While we now expect 7-8% industry luster macro indicators and worse-than-expected auto sales YTD, sales volume declines for 2019 and 1-2% sales volume growth for 2019 is set to be the weakest year for auto sales growth in China since 2020, for the six major H-share listed OEMs we cover we expect 0.3% 1990, and we lower our 2019 PV sales growth forecast from a 5% yoy sales volume declines for 2019 and 4.5% sales volume growth in decline to a 7-8% decline. However, we expect a replacement cycle to 2020, as we expect the major OEMs to take market share from kick in from 2020, and note this is ~5 years since the previous govern- smaller players. We expect an average of 14% yoy net profit decline ment stimulus policies were introduced in October 2015. We expect for the 6 OEMs for 2019E, but 8% net profit growth for 2020E, with the mid-to-high-end brands to benefit from this replacement cycle our updated assumptions for Dongfeng. driven by consumer upgrade demand. Among auto OEMs, our Risks to our ratings: If pressure on the macro economy lingers in favorite segment remains luxury and Japanese brands, where we 2020, we see downside risk to our forecasts. However, even if the expect to see continued market share gains. We adjust our 2020e PV downturn in the auto market continues, we still expect luxury and sales growth forecast from -3% to +1-2% in 2020e for China, which Japanese brands to be resilient, as was the case in 2018-19. is the highest growth among major global markets compared to -3% in Japan, -1% in Korea, -6% in US and -2% in Europe. Recommendations: We remain OW on Brilliance and BAIC given their luxury brand exposure, and on Dongfeng and GAC for their Market priced-in weak expectations: H-share listed OEMs have Japanese brand exposure. We also upgrade SAIC to OW from EW only seen ~10% share price returns YTD, after ~50% declines in 2018. with an unchanged PT, on valuation. We are bearish on domestic Since 2018, Chinese auto OEMs have underperformed the Hang Seng brands, which we expect to lose share from JV brands. We remain EW Index by 35% and also underperformed major US, European and on GWM and UW on Geely, as Geely trades at 14x 2019E P/E, much Japanese OEMs. Many of our OW-rated stocks are trading near his- higher than GWM's 10x. We raise our Industry View to Attractive torical trough valuations, and the industry average P/E is now at 1 from In-Line on an expected recovery from 2020 and attractive valu- standard deviation below its historical average. We believe the cur- ations. Five of the seven major OEMs we cover are rated OW. rent share prices are not taking into consideration the possibility of improved auto demand next year. MM Contents 5 Order of Preference 25 Risk-Reward: SAIC 6 Investment Summary 26 SAIC: Financial Summary 10 OEMs Trading Below Historical Valuation 27 Brilliance: 1H19 Results Recap 12 2019 Sales Plumb New Lows 28 Brilliance: Financial Summary 14 Replacement Cycle To Kick In From 2020 29 BAIC: 1H19 Results Recap 16 Consumer Product Examples: Premium Segment 30 BAIC: Financial Summary Outperforming 31 GAC: 1H19 Results Recap 17 Improvements in Industry Efficiency 32 GAC: Financial Summary 19 Where We Could Be Wrong 33 Great Wall: 1H19 Results Recap 20 Dongfeng: Raising PT to HK$10 34 GWM: Financial Summary 22 Risk-Reward: Dongfeng 35 Geely: 1H19 Results Recap 23 Dongfeng: Financial Summary 36 Geely: Financial Summary 24 SAIC: Upgrading to OW on Valuation 4 MM Order of Preference Exhibit 1: Order of Preference Brilliance Dongfeng SAIC GAC-H BAIC GMW-H GAC-A GWM-A Geely 1114.HK 0489.HK 600104.SS 2238.HK 1958.HK 2333.HK 601238.SS 601633.SS 0175.HK Rating Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Equal-Weight Equal-Weight Underweight Underweight Trading Currency HKD HKD CNY HKD HKD HKD CNY CNY HKD Price Target 12.0 10.0 30.0 10.5 6.5 5.0 9.0 4.5 5.0 Current Price 8.4 7.1 25.3 7.5 4.5 5.1 11.5 8.1 12.6 Upside/(Downside) (%) 43% 41% 19% 40% 44% -2% -22% -44% -60% Market Cap (in USD mm) 5,401.6 7,821.5 41,328.1 14,388.4 4,608.9 8,878.5 14,388.4 8,878.5 14,761.0 Avg Daily Traded Vol (in USD mm) 21.1 11.7 102.5 30.9 7.4 25.3 16.7 21.4 112.9 Street View: Ratings Buy/Overweight ||||||||||||| 50% |||||||||||||| 54% |||||||||||||||||| 71% ||||||||||||||||||| 77% ||||| 21% |||| 15% ||||||||||| 42% |||||||||| 42% ||||||||||| 45% Hold/Equal-weight |||||||||| 40% |||||||||| 42% |||||| 23% || 10% |||||||||||||||| 63% ||||||||||||| 50% ||||||| 26% ||||| 21% ||||||||||| 42% Sell/Underweight ||| 10% | 4% || 6% ||| 13% |||| 17% ||||||||| 35% |||||||| 32% ||||||||| 38% ||| 12% Bull Case Value 14.0 14.0 37.5 16.0 7.8 9.0 18.0 10.0 18.0 Upside (%) 67% 97% 48% 113% 73% 76% 57% 23% 43% Bear Case Value 6.0 5.5 14.0 5.0 2.6 3.0 5.0 2.5 2.5 Downside (%) -29% -23% -45% -33% -42% -41% -57% -69% -80% Risk/Reward Skew 2.3 4.3 1.1 3.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.5 Morgan Stanley Estimates FY19e CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY Sales 3,673 97,503 915,038 66,929 168,721 93,455 66,929 93,455 83,173 EBITDA 6,616 19,645 32,701 4,777 29,633 8,342 4,777 8,342 11,688 EBIT 6,317 16,845 18,011 1,282 21,479 4,914 1,282 4,914 8,140 EPS 1.32 1.68 3.08 0.95 0.44 0.45 0.95 0.45 0.78 FY20e Sales 3,664 91,735 936,229 68,459 185,064 95,464 68,459 95,464 80,725 EBITDA 7,006 21,195 37,197 5,735 32,626 9,850 5,735 9,850 11,172 EBIT 6,679 18,070 19,992 2,053 23,101 5,912 2,053 5,912 7,500 EPS 1.39 1.77 3.22 1.07 0.51 0.54 1.07 0.54 0.72 FY19 MSe vs. Consensus Mean Sales -14.6% -1.3% 1.1% 3.9% 1.5% -6.0% -5.8% -10.5% -17.3% EPS -1.1% 8.2% 2.1% -3.7% -31.2% 0.6% -5.0% -9.9% -26.4% FY20 MSe vs. Consensus Mean Sales -24.3% -6.5% -2.7% -2.3% 2.5% -10.1% -14.2% -15.0% -25.6% EPS -7.6% 10.8% -1.2% -1.2% -27.2% 7.7% -9.9% -5.6% -40.7% Valuation Multiples at Last Close FY19e P/E 5.8x 3.9x 8.2x 7.2x 9.3x 10.3x 12.1x 18.1x 14.6x EV/EBIT 6.6x 2.8x 17.4x 60.5x 3.3x 14.1x 60.5x 14.1x 11.7x EV/EBITDA 6.3x 2.4x 9.6x 16.2x 2.4x 8.3x 16.2x 8.3x 8.2x EV/Sales 11.4x 0.5x 0.3x 1.2x 0.4x 0.7x 1.2x 0.7x 1.1x FCF Yield -0.1% 14.8% 0.1% -1.4% 7.4% -2.3% -1.4% -2.3% 0.4% FY20e P/E 5.5x 3.7x 7.9x 6.4x 8.1x 8.6x 10.7x 15.1x 15.9x EV/EBIT 6.2x 1.9x 16.4x 33.9x 3.5x 11.5x 33.9x 11.5x 12.2x EV/EBITDA 5.9x 1.6x 8.8x 12.1x 2.5x 6.9x 12.1x 6.9x 8.2x EV/Sales 11.4x 0.4x 0.4x 1.0x 0.4x 0.7x 1.0x 0.7x 1.1x FCF Yield 0.6% 13.0% 1.2% 0.8% 28.9% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% 4.6% Implied Multiples on MS Price Target FY19e P/E 8.3x 5.4x 9.7x 10.1x 13.4x 10.1x 9.5x 10.0x 5.8x EV/EBIT 9.2x 4.2x 20.5x 3.5x 4.0x 4.1x 30.3x 6.7x 3.9x EV/EBITDA 8.8x 3.6x 11.3x 0.9x 2.9x 2.4x 8.1x 4.0x 2.7x EV/Sales 15.8x 0.7x 0.4x 0.1x 0.5x 0.2x 0.6x 0.4x 0.4x FY20e P/E 7.9x 5.1x 9.3x 9.0x 11.7x 8.5x 8.4x 8.4x 6.3x EV/EBIT 9.0x 4.8x 19.6x 21.4x 2.3x 3.9x 38.2x 6.1x 7.6x EV/EBITDA 8.6x 4.1x 10.5x 7.7x 1.6x 2.3x 13.7x 3.7x 5.1x EV/Sales 16.5x 0.9x 0.4x 0.6x 0.3x 0.2x 1.1x 0.4x 0.7x Stock Price Performance 1 Month 16.1% 12.3% 7.0% 1.6% 0.4% 3.3% 7.0% 2.4% 13.7% 3 Month 15.1% 12.3% 3.0% (2.1%) (5.1%) (12.9%) 8.2% (7.3%) 0.5% 1 Year (18.2%) (12.1%) (10.0%) (2.8%) (26.9%) 17.3% 12.6% 14.5% (18.8%) YTD 59.3% 0.3% (5.3%) (3.6%) 9.2% 13.1% 11.3% 45.4% (8.6%) Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Thomson Reuters (consensus mean).
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