Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2001

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AUTHOR Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G. TITLE Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2001. INSTITUTION Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor. Inst. for Social Research. SPONS AGENCY National Inst. on Drug Abuse (DHHS/PHS), Bethesda, MD. REPORT NO NIH-02-5105 PUB DATE 2002-00-00 NOTE 81p. CONTRACT 3-R01-DA-01411 AVAILABLE FROM For full text: http://monitoringthefuture.org/pubs/monographs/overview2001. PUB TYPE Numerical/Quantitative Data (110) Reports - Research (143) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC04 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Cocaine; Crack; Drinking; Drug Use; Grade 10; Grade 12; Grade 8; Heroin; *Illegal Drug Use; *Longitudinal Studies; Lysergic Acid Diethylamide; Marijuana; Peer Influence; Secondary Education; Secondary School Students; Sedatives; Sex Differences; Smoking; Sociocultural Patterns; *Substance Abuse; Tables (Data); Trend Analysis IDENTIFIERS Ecstasy (Drug); *Monitoring the Future

ABSTRACT This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2001 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has shown to be particularly important in explaining trends in use--are also presented, as well as trends in perceived availability of the various drugs. A separate section is then presented for each class of drugs. These sections contain graphs showing trends in past-year use. They also show trends in perceived risk, disapproval, and perceived availability of marijuana, inhalants, LSD, cocaine, crack cocaine, amphetamines, heroin, methamphetamine, tranquilizers, barbiturates, club drugs (ecstasy and rohypnol), alcohol, cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and steroids. Key findings show that the overall illicit drug use among teens remained steady in 2000 in all three grades as well as for specific drugs such as marijuana, amphetamines, hallucinogens other than LSD, tranquilizers, barbiturates, and alcohol. Key findings mixed results, as did the 1999 and 2000 surveys. The primary drug showing an increase in 2001 was ecstasy, which had been rising sharply since 1998. In contrast to this increase, a number of other drugs showed evidence of some decline in 2001. One of the most important such declines involved heroin, which had been at or near peak levels in recent years. (Contains 9 tables.)(GCP)

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A A ) A .. . . - . BEST COPY AVAILABLE MOMTORaNG THE FUl'URE

MAMMAL RESULTS ON ADOLESCENT DRUG UM

Overvnew of Key Fhidngs, 2001

Lloyd D. Johnston, Ph.D. Patrick M. O'Malley, Ph.D. Jerald G. Bachman, Ph.D.

The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research

National Institute on Drug Abuse 6001 Executive Boulevard Bethesda, Maryland 20892

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Public Health Service National Institutes of Health

2002 This publication was written by the principal investigators and staff of The Monitoring the Futureproject,attheInstituteforSocial Research,the University of Michigan, under Research Grant No. 3 RO1 DA 01411 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Public Domain Notice

All material appearing in this volume is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission from the National Institute on Drug Abuse or the authors. Citation of the source is appreciated.

Recommended Citation

Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, P. M., & Bachman, J. G. (2002). Monitoring the Future national results on adolescent drug use:Overview of key findings, 2001. (NIH Publication No. 02-5105). Bethesda, MD: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

National Institute on Drug Abuse NIH Publication No. 02-5105 Printed March 2002 Tab Oe of Contents

Introduction 1 Study Design and Methods 2

Overview of Key Findings 3 Specific Results by Drug Any Illicit Drug Use 6 Marijuana 8 Inhalants 10 LSD 12 Cocaine 14 Crack Cocaine 16 Amphetamines 18 Methamphetamine and Ice 20 Heroin 22 Tranquilizers 24 Barbiturates 26 Club DrugsEcstasy and Rohypnol 28 Alcohol 30 Cigarettes 32 Smokeless Tobacco 34 Steroids 36 Subgroup Differences 38

Tables Covering All Drugs

1. Trends in Lifetime Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs 40 Footnotes for Tables 1-3 43 2. Trends in Annual and 30-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs 44 3. Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Drugs 48 4. Trends in Harmfulness of Drugs as Perceived by Eighth and Tenth Graders 49 5. Long-Term Trends in Harmfulness of Drugs as Perceived by Twelfth Graders 50 6. Trends in Disapproval of Drug Use by Eighth and Tenth Graders 52 7. Long-Term Trends in Disapproval of Drug Use by Twelfth Graders 53 8. Trends in Perceived Availability of Drugs by Eighth and Tenth Graders 55 9. Long-Term Trends in Perceived Availability of Drugs by Twelfth Graders 56

5 Ontroduthon

This report presentsan overview of the key prevalencestatisticsonlyforthe1991-2001 findings from the Monitoring the Future study's interval, but statistics on 12th graders are available 2001 nationwide survey of 8th,10th, and 12th for longer intervals in other publications from the grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on study. The tablesindicate for each prevalence recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. period which of the one-year changes between Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal 2000-2001 are statistically significant. disapproval associated with each drugwhich this study has shown to be particularly important in A more extensive analysis of the study's findings explaining trends in useare also presented, as on secondary school students may be found in a well as trendsin perceived availability of the volume to be published laterin 2002.2 The various drugs. volumes in this series also contain a more complete description of the study's methodology as well as Monitoring the Future (MTF), begun in 1975, is a an appendix on how to test the significance of long-term study of American adolescents, college differences between groups or for the same group students,andadultsthrough age40. Itis over time. The most recent such volume is always conductedbytheUniversityofMichigan's posted on the study's Web site. Institutefor Social Research andissupported under a series of investigator-initiated, competing The study's findings on American college students research grants from the National Institute on Drug and young adults are not covered in this early Abuse. Overview report because the 2001 data are not available at the time of this writing. They are Following this introduction, there is a synopsis of covered in a second series of volumes that will be methods used and an overview of the key results updated later this year.'Volumes in these two from the 2001 survey. This general synopsis is annualseriesareavailable from theNational followed by a section for each individual drug Clearinghouse for Alcohol and Drug Information class, providing graphs that show trends in the at (800) 729-6686 or by e-mail at [email protected]. overall proportions of students at each grade level (a)reporting use,(b) seeing a "greatrisk" Further information on the study, includingits associated with its use, (c) disapproving its use, latest press releases, a listing of all publications, and finally, (d) saying that they could get the drug and the text of many of them may be found on the "fairly easily" or "very easily."The trends are Web at www.monitoringthefuture.org. presented for the interval 1991-2001 for all grades, and for 1975-2001 for the 12th graders.

The tables at the end of this report provide the statistics underlying the graphs; in addition they present data on lifetime, 30-day, and (for selected 2The most recent publication in this series is: Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, drugs)dailyprevalence.' They present these P. M., and Bachman, J. G. (2001). Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975-2000: Volume 1, Secondary school students. (NM Publication No. 01-4924). Bethesda, MD: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

'Prevalence refers to the proportion or percentage of the sample reporting 2The most recent in this series is: Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, P. M., and use of the given substance on one or more occasions in a given time Bachman, J. G. (2001). Monitoring the Future national survey results on intervale.g., lifetime, past 12 months, or past 30 days. The prevalence drug use, 1975-2000: Volume 14 College students and adults ages 19-40. of daily use usually refers to use on 20 or more occasions in the past 30 (NIH Publication No. 01-4925). Bethesda, MD: National Institute on days. Drug Abuse.It may be ordered from the National Clearinghouse for Alcohol and Drug Information; or it may be viewed on the study's Web site at www.monitoringthefuture.org.

1 6 Study Desgn andMet iods

At the core of Monitoring the Future is a series of more occasions.For the psychotherapeutic drugs large, annual surveys of nationally representative (amphetamines, barbiturates, tranquilizers, and samples of students in public and private secondary opiatesotherthanheroin),respondentsare schools throughout the coterminous United States. instructed to include only use "...on your own Every year since 1975 a national sample of 12th that is, without a doctor telling you to take them." graders has been surveyed. Beginning in 1991, the A similar qualification is used in the question on study was expanded to include comparable national use ofanabolic steroids. For cigarettes, samples of 8th graders and 10th graders each year. respondents are asked two questions about use: "Have you ever smoked cigarettes?" (the answer Sample Sizes categories are "never," "once or twice," and so on) The 2001 sample sizes were 16,800, 14,300, and and "How frequently have you smoked cigarettes 13,300 in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades, respectively. during the past 30 days?" (the answer categories Inall,about 44,300 studentsin 424 schools are "not at all," "less than one cigarette per day," participated. Because multiple questionnaire forms "one to five cigarettes per day," "about one-half are administered at each grade level, and because pack per day," etc.).Parallel questions are asked not all questions are contained in all forms, the about smokeless tobacco. number of cases upon which a particular statistic is based can be less than the total sample. The tables Alcohol use is measured using the three questions at the end of this volume contain the sample sizes illustrated above for LSD. A parallel set of three associated with each statistic. questions asks about the frequency of being drunk. Another question asks,for the prior two-week Field Procedures period, "How many times have you had five or University of Michigan staff members administer more drinks in a row?" Perceived risk is measured the questionnaires tostudents,usuallyintheir by a question asking, "How much do you think classrooms duringaregularclassperiod. people risk harming themselves (physically or in Participation is voluntary. Questionnaires are self- other ways), if they..." "...try marijuana once or completed and formatted for optical scanning. In twice," for example.The answer categories are 8thand10thgradesthequestionnairesare "no risk," "slight risk," "moderate risk," "great completely anonymous, and in 12th grade they are risk," and "can't say, drug unfamiliar." confidential (to permit the longitudinal follow-up Disapproval is measured by the question, "Do of a random sub-sample of participants for some YOU disapprove of people doing each of the years after high school in a panel study). following?" followed by "trying marijuana once or Measures twice," for example. Answer categories are "don't disapprove," "disapprove," "strongly disapprove," A standard set of three questionsisused to and (in 8th and 10th grades only) "can't say, drug determine usage levelsforthevarious drugs unfamiliar." Perceived availability is measured by (except for cigarettes and smokeless tobacco). For the question, "How difficult do you think it would example, we ask, "On how many occasions (if any) be for you to get each of the following types of haveyouused LSD(` acid')... (a)... inyour drugs, if you wanted some?" Answer categories are lifetime?,(b)... duringthe 12 past months?, "probablyimpossible,""verydifficult,""fairly (c)... during the last 30 days?"Each of the three difficult," "fairly easy," "very easy" and (in 8th questions is answered on the same answer scale: 0 and 10th grades only) "can't say, drug unfamiliar." occasions, 1-2, 3-5, 6-9, 10-19, 20-39, and 40 or

2 OveMew of Key FilneIngs

The surveys of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students 2001.One of the most important such declines in the United States conducted in 2001 generated involved heroin, which had been at or near peak mixed results, as did the 1999 and 2000 surveys. levels in recent years, due in large part to the ascent of using heroin without a needle in the early Drugs Increasing in Use 1990s. Eighth graders showed some decline in The primary drug showing an increase in 2001 was heroin use in 2000, and the 10th and 12th graders ecstasy (MDMA), which had been rising sharply showed their first decline in use in 2001. Virtually since 1998. (Asimilarincreasehadbeen all of this improvement occurred in the use of documented among the 19- to 26-year-olds in the heroin without a needle (i.e.,in smoking or

.follow-up surveys in the study, at least through snorting it). 2000.) While there was further increase in ecstasy use observed in 2001 among the secondary school Of clearandparticularimportance,cigarette students, the rate of increase began to fall off, quite smokingbyadolescentsinallthreegrades possibly due to a sharp increase in the proportion continued to decline sharply in 2001, extending' an of students seeing this drug as dangerous.4 The improvement that began after 1996 (among 8th and proportion of 12th graders (8th and 10th graders 10th graders) or 1997 (among 12th graders). Daily were not asked this question until 2001) saying smoking among 8th graders has now fallen almost they see a "great risk" in trying ecstasy jumped 8 by half since the recent peak ratein 1996 percentagepointsbetween2000and2001. offsetting the sharp increase in smoking seen in However,specialanalysesindicatethatthe this age group in the early 1990s. A specialized proportion of the schools in the MTF national type of flavored cigarette called "bidis," imported samples having at least one respondent who has from India, threatened to make inroads into the ever used ecstasy was stillincreasing in 2001. American market. However, the use of these Thusthedrugis stilldiffusingtonew cigarettes,which was not very widespread in communities, which may have been more than 2000the first year on which we had prevalence enough to offset the effects of the increase in estimatesactually declined appreciably in 2001. perceiyed risk. Reported availability of ecstasy The third class of tobacco product on which we continued to rise quite dramatically, perhaps in part have estimates is smokeless tobacco, the use of due to this diffusion process. which had declined considerably in recent years, but did not decline any further in 2001. The use of anabolic steroids increased significantly among 12th graders this year, perhaps Some of the illicit drugs other than heroin showed reflecting a cohort effect, since steroid use had continuing declines in 2001, though many of those risen fairly sharply among the younger students in weregradualanddidnotreachstatistical the prior two years. However, there was no further significance for the one-year interval of 2000- increase in steroid use among the 8th or 10th 2001. These included LSD, the annual prevalence graders in 2001. of which dropped significantly in 10th grade and Drugs Declining in Use nonsignificantly in 8th grade in 2001.(There was no further change in 12th grade.)All three grades In contrast to the increase in ecstasy, a number of have annual prevalence rates of LSD use that are other drugs showed evidence of some decline in now 25% to 41% lower than the recent peak in 1996; theserepresentimportantcumulative °The 2000-2001 increases in use were not statistically significant for individual grades, but were significant across the three grades combined. declines. Somewhat surprisingly, these declines Thirty-day prevalence showed a less consistent pattern of change this havenotbeenaccompanied byincreasesin year, possibly reflecting a very recent turnaround in use in 12th grade; but another year of data is needed to clarify this. perceived risk, leading us to conclude that another drug may be displacing LSD as a drug of choice.

3 Ecstasy seems the most likely candidate, since it is tal methamphetamine, barbiturates(reported also used for its hallucinogenic effects and is the only for 12th graders), and three of the so-called only drug on the riseat present. In fact,the "club drugs"Rohypnol, and Ketamine. perceived risk of LSD use actually has been falling (as has the disapproval of its use, especially among It is noteworthy that the downturns in the 1990s 8th graders), and this may be setting the stage for a startedfirst and have been the most sustained comeback of LSD use at some future time. among the 8th graders for a number of drugs.

Inhalant use, which began to decline from peak Reasons for the Diverging Trends levels in 1996 inall three grades, continued to The wide divergence in the trajectories of the decline in 2001 (though only the 12th grade one- different drugs in this single year helps to illustrate yeardecline wasstatisticallysignificant).The thepointthat,toa considerabledegree,the annual prevalence rates for inhalants are now down determinants of use are often specific to the drugs. from their 1995 peaks by 29%, 31%, and 44% in These determinantsinclude both the perceived grades 8, 10, and 12, respectively. Again, these are benefits and the perceived risks that young people important cumulative improvements. come to associate with each drug.

The use of crack and powdered cocaine are both Unfortunately, word of the supposed benefits of off modestly from their peak levels in the 1990s using a drug usually spreads much faster than (which were far below the peak levels reached in information about the adverse consequences. The the mid-1980s); but only cocaine powder showed a former takes only rumor and a few testimonials, significant decline in 2001 (only in 10th grade). the spread of which has been hastened greatly by the electronic media and the Internet. The latter There has been some modest decrease in the 30- the perceived risksusually take much longer for day prevalence of alcohol use among students at the evidence(e.g., of death,disease, overdose all three grades since the recent peaks reached in reactions, addictive potential) to cumulate and then 1996 or 1997, though neither the increase before to be disseminated. Thus, when a new drug comes the peak nor the decrease thereafter has amounted onto the scene, it has a considerable "grace period" to much change. The gradual decreases continued during whichitsbenefitsarealleged andits this year, though nonereachedstatistical consequences are not yet known. We have argued significance. Reportsof being drunk also that ecstasy has been the beneficiary of such a declined in grades 8 and 10 this year. grace period until this year, when perceived risk for this drug finally rose sharply. Drugs Holding Steady The use of marijuana held steady at rates only Implications for Prevention slightly below the peak rates reached in 1997 To some considerable degree,prevention must among 10th and 12th graders. Eighth graders, who occur drug by drug, because knowledge of the had shown a slow steady decline in marijuana use adverseconsequencesof onedrugwillnot after their recent peak in 1996, also showed no necessarily generalize to the use of other drugs. further improvement this year.Because marijuana Many of young people's beliefs and attitudes are use remained unchanged, so did the index of the specific to the drug. A review of the charts in this use of any illicit drug, which is driven mostly by volume on perceived risk and disapproval for the marijuanathe most prevalent of the illicit drugs. various drugsattitudes and beliefs which we have shown to be important in explaining many Other drugs that showed no systematic changes in drug trends over the yearswill amply illustrate 2001, in addition to marijuana, were hallucinogens this contention.These attitudes and beliefs are at other than LSD, narcotics other than heroin quite different levels for the various drugs and, (reported only for 12th graders), heroin with a more importantly, often trend differently over time. needle, amphetamines, methamphetamine, crys-

4 9 New Drugs Help to Keep the Epidemic concern. Nearly two-thirds (61%) of American Going young people have tried cigarettes by 12th grade, Another point well illustrated by this year's results and almost a third (30%) of 12th graders are is the continuous flow of new drugs introduced current smokers. Even as early as 8th grade, nearly ontothesceneorofolderonesbeing fourinevery tenstudents (37%) havetried "rediscovered" by young people. Many drugs have cigarettes, and one in eight (12%) already has made a comeback years after they first fell from become a current smoker.Fortunately, we have popularity, often because young people's seen some real improvement in these smoking knowledge of their adverse consequences faded as statistics over the last four or five years, following generational replacement took place. We call this a dramatic increase in these rates earlier in the process "generational forgetting."Examples of 1990s. this include LSD and methamphetamine, two drugs used widely in the beginning of the broad epidemic Cigarette use reached its recent peak in 1996 at of illicit drug use, which originated in the 1960s. grades 8 and 10, capping a rapid climb of some Heroin, cocaine, PCP, and crack are some others 50% from the 1991 levels (when data first were that made a comeback in the 1990s after, their gathered on these grades).Since 1996, current initial popularity faded. smoking in these grades has fallen off considerably (by 42% and 30%, respectively), including the As for newer drugs coming onto thescene, further decline in 2001.In 12th grade, peak use examples include the nitrite inhalants and PCP in occurred a year later (1997), from which there has the 1970s, crack and crystal methamphetamine in been a more modest decline of 19%. Overall the 1980s, and Rohypnol, GHB, and ecstasy in the increasesin perceived risk and disapproval of 1990s.The perpetual introduction of new drugs smokingappeartobecontributingtothis (or of new forms of taking older ones, as illustrated downturn. (See the section on cigarettes for more bycrack,crystalmethamphetamine, and non- detail.) injected heroin) helps to keep the country's "drug problem" alive. Because of the lag times described Smokeless tobacco use has also been in decline in previously,during which evidence of adverse recentyears.Concentrated among males,like consequences must cumulate and be disseminated steroid use, it has shown fair proportional declines. before they begin todeter use,the forces of containment are always playing "catch up" with Alcohol use remains extremely widespread among the forces of encouragement and exploitation. today's teenagers.Four out of every five students (80%) have consumed alcohol (more than just a Where Are We Now? few sips) by the end of high school; and about half As the country begins the 21st century, clearly the (51%) have done so by 8th grade. In fact, nearly problems of substance abuse remain widespread two-thirds (64%) of the 12th graders and nearly a among American young people. Today over half quarter (23%) of the 8th graders in 2001 report (54%) have tried an illicit drug by the time they having been drunk at least once in their life.To a finishhighschool.Indeed,ifinhalant useis considerable degree, alcohol trends have tended to included in the definition of an illicit drug, more parallel the trends in illicit drug use. These trends than a third (35%) have done so as early as 8th include some modest increase in binge drinking gradewhen most students are only 13 or 14 years (defined as having five or more drinks in a row at old.Three out of ten (29%) have used some illicit least once in the past two weeks) in the early part drug other than marijuana by the end of 12th grade, of the 1990s, but a proportionally smaller increase and two of those three (20% of all 12th graders) than was seen for most of theillicitdrugs. have done so in just the 12 months prior to the Fortunately, binge drinking rates leveled off three survey. or four years ago, just about when the illicit drugs began to turn around. Cigarettes and Alcohol The statistics for use of the licit drugs, cigarettes and alcohol,arealso a basis for considerable

5 1 0 Any nHcht Drug Use

In the remainder of this report, separate sections a period of considerable rise in the 1990s.The are provided for each of the many classes of illicit comparable trendsforannual,asopposedto drugs, but we begin by considering the proportions lifetime, prevalence appear in the second (upper of American adolescents who use any illicit drug, right) panel.They show a gradual and continuing regardless of type. Monitoring the Future routinely falloff after 1996 among 8th graders. Peak rates reports three different indexes of illicit drug use were reached in 1997 in the two upper grades, but an index of "any illicit drug use," an index of the there has been no further decline since 1998. use of "any illicit drug other than marijuana," and an index of the use of "any illicit drug including Because marijuana is so much more prevalent than inhalants."In this section we discuss only the first any other illicit drug, trends in its use tend to drive two; the statistics for the third may be found in the index of "any illicit drug use." For this reason Table 1. we haveanindexexcludingmarijuanause, showingtheproportionofthesepopulations In order to make comparisons over time, we have willing to use the other, so-called "harder," illicit kept the definitions of these indexes constant, even drugs. The proportions using any illicit drug though some new substances appear astime other than marijuana are in the third panel (lower passes. The index levels would be little affected by left). In 1975 over one-third (36%) of 12th graders the inclusion of these new substances, however, had tried some illicit drug other than marijuana. primarily because almost all users of them are also This figure rose to 43% by 1981, followed by a using the more prevalent drugs included in the long period of decline to a low of 25% in 1992. indexes.The major exception has been inhalants, Some increase followed in the 1990s, as the use of the use of which is quite prevalent in the lower a number of drugs rose steadily, and it reached grades. Thus, after the lower grades were added to 30% by 1997. (In 2001 it was 29%.) The fourth the study in 1991, a special index was added that panel presents the annual prevalence data for the includes inhalants. same index, which shows a pattern of change over the past few years similar to the index of any illicit Trends in Use drug use. In the last third of the twentieth century, young Americans achieved extraordinary levels of illicit Overall,thesedata revealthat,while use of drug use, either by historical comparisons in this individualdrugs(otherthanmarijuana)may country or by international comparisons with other fluctuate widely, the proportion using any of them countries. The trends in lifetime use of any illicit is much less labile.In other words, the proportion drug are given in the first panel on the facing of students prone to using such drugs and willing page.6 By 1975, when the study began, the to cross the normative barriers to such use changes majority of young people (55%) had used an illicit more gradually. The usage rate for each individual drug by the time they left high school. This figure drug, on the other hand,reflects many, more rose to two-thirds (66%) by 1981, before a long rapidly changing determinants specific to that drug: and gradual decline to 41% by 1992the low how widely its psychoactivepotential is point.Today, the proportion is back to 54%, after recognized, how favorablethereportsofits supposed benefits are, how risky the use of it is seen to be, how acceptable it is in the peer group, 5Footnote 1 to Tables 1 through 3 provides the exact definition of "any illicit drug." how accessible it is, and so on.

6This is the only set of figures in this volume presenting lifetime use statistics.For other drugs, lifetime statistics may be found in the tables at the end of this volume. ii

6 Tvende h DOOMt Drug Use M00% Tenn, and Tun Nth erradeve

% who used any illicit drug in lifetime % who used any illicit drug in past year

100 1 00 -0-Twelfth Grads -e-Tenth Grade 80 80 Eighth Grade

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% who used any illicit drug other than % who used any Illicit drug other than marijuana in lifetime marijuana in - at year woo 1 00

so 80

60 60

ao . 40 . . ... 20 h-ertr-N-6 20

0 0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

12 arilljuana

Marijuana has been the most widely used illicit perceived risk was a leading indicator of change in drug for the 26 years of this study. Marijuana can use. be taken orally, mixed with food, and smoked in a concentrated form as hashishthe use of which is Disapproval much more common in Europe. However, nearly Personaldisapproval of marijuana use slipped alltheconsumptioninthiscountryinvolves considerably among 8th graders between 1991 and smoking it in rolled cigarettes ("joints"), in pipes 1996, and among 10th and 12th graders between or, more recently, in hollowed-outcigars 1992 and 1997.For example, the proportions of ("blunts"). 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, respectively, who said they disapproved of trying marijuana once or twice Trends in Use fell by 17, 21, and 19 percentage points over those Annual marijuana use peaked at 51% among 12th intervals of decline.Since then there has been graders in 1979, following a rise that began during some modest increase in disapproval among 8th the 1960s. Then, use declined fairly steadily for 13 graders,but not much among 10th and12th years, bottoming at 22% in 1992a decline of graders. more than half.The 1990s, however, saw a resurgence of use.After a considerable increase in the Availability 1990s (one that actually began among 8th graders a Since the study began in 1975, between 83% and year earlier than among 10th and 12th graders), 90% of every senior class have said that they could annual prevalence rates peaked in 1996 at 8th get marijuana fairly easily or very easily if they grade and in 1997 at 10th and 12th grades. There wanted some; therefore, it seems clear that this has has been some very modest decline since those remained a highly accessible drug.Since 1991, peak levels, more so among the 8th graders, but no when data were also available for 8th and 10th one-year change was significant in either 2000 or graders,wehaveseenthatmarijuanais 2001. considerably less accessible to younger adolescents.Still, in 2001 nearly half of all 8th Perceived Risk graders (48%) and more than three-quarters of all Theamountofriskassociatedwithusing 10th graders (77%) reported it as being accessible. marijuana fell during the earlier period of increased This compares to 89% for seniors. use and again during the more recent resurgence of use in the 1990s. Indeed, at 10th and 12th grades, As marijuana use rose sharply in the early and mid- perceived risk began to decline a year before use 1990s,reportedavailabilityincreasedaswell, began to rise in the upturn of the 1990s, making perhaps reflecting the fact that more young people perceived risk a leading indicator of change in use. had friends who were users.Availability peaked (The same may have happened at 8th grade, as for 8th and 10th graders in 1996 and has shown well, but we do not have data starting early enough somefalloffsince,particularlyin8thgrade. to check that possibility.) The decline in perceived Availability peaked a bit later for 12th graders. risk halted in 1996 in 8th and 10th grades, and use There has been no further decline in availability in began todecline a year or two later.Again, the last couple of years in the upper grades, nor in 2001 in grade 8.

8 MeNjuans: Trends ui AnnueD Use, Mak, Olsapprove0, and Averlsbny Mghn, Tenn, and Tweellfn Gredevs

% who used in Oast twelve months % seeing "great rise in using reguiarly

1 00 1 00 -0-Twelfth Grade Tenth Grade 80 80 -6- Eighth Grade

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 '76 78 SO 82 '84 86 88 SO 92 94 96 98 '00 76 78 SO '82 '84 86 88 '90 92 94 96 98 '00 Year Year

% disapproving of using regularly %saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

1 00

0 76 78 SO '82 '84 '86 88 SO 92 94 96 98 '00 '76 '78 SO '82 '84 '86 88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

14 ia0ants

Inhalants are any gases or fumes that can be in- 2000, before resuming in 2001.In 2001, inhalant haled for the purpose of getting high.These in- use dropped significantly for 12th grade. clude many household products, the sale and pos- session of which is perfectly legal, including such Perceived Risk things as airplane glue, nail polish remover, gaso- Only8th and10th graders have been asked line, solvents, butane, and propellants used in cer- questions about the degree of risk they associate tain commercial products, such as whipped cream with inhalant use.Relatively low proportions of dispensers. Unlike nearlyall other classes of them think that there is a "great risk" in using an drugs, their use is most common among younger inhalant once or twice, although there was an adolescents and tends to decline as youngsters upward shift in this belief between 1995 and 1996, grow older. The early use of inhalants may reflect and again in 2001 when significant increases in the fact that many inhalants are cheap, readily perceived risk were seen in both 8th and 10th available, and legal.The decline in use with age grades. The Partnership for a Drug-Free America no doubt reflects their coming to be seen as "kids' launched an anti-inhalant advertising initiative in drugs." In addition, a number of other drugs be- 1995, which may help to explain the increase in come available to older adolescents, who also are perceived risk, and the turnaround in use, after that more able to afford them. point.

Trends in Use Disapproval According to the long-term data from 12th graders, Quite high proportions of students say they would inhalant use (excluding the use of nitrite inhalants) disapprove of even trying an inhalant.There has rose gradually for some years, from 1976 to 1987. been a very gradual upward drift in this attitude This rise in use was somewhat unusual in that most since 1995. other forms of illicit drug use were in decline during the 1980s.Use rose among 8th and 10th Availability graders from the time data were first gathered on Respondentshavenot been asked aboutthe them, 1991, through 1995, and also rose among availability of inhalants.We have assumed that 12th graders from 1992 to 1995. All grades these substances are universally available to young exhibited a steady decline in use through 1999, people in these age ranges. though it halted briefly at 10th and 12th grades in

1 5

10 OnheOente: Mande in Annual] Rise, Mak, end Meepprove0 EWAN Tenth, end Tudath evedeve

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

30 100 -0- Twelfth Grade

24 -0- Tenth Grade 80 -6- Eighth Grade

18 60

12 40

6 20

'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving og using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

1 00 1 00

80 oc:g 80

60 60 (no data) 40 40

20 20

'76 '78 '80 '82 84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

16 LSD

LSD is the most widely used drug within the larger a fallinperceivedrisk,suggeststhat some class of drugs known as hallucinogens.Statistics mechanism isinvolved other than a change in on overall hallucinogen use, and on the use of underlying attitudes and beliefs. The possibility hallucinogens other than LSD, may be found in the that another drug might be displacing LSD seems tables at the end of this report. promising, and the most likely candidate would be ecstasy,sinceithasbeenrisingsharplyin Trends in Use popularity and its use is common in some of the The annual prevalence of LSD use has remained same situations as LSD. below 10% for the last 26 years. Use had declined some in the first 10 years of the study, likely Disapproval continuing a decline that had begun before 1975. Disapproval of LSD use was quite high among Use had been fairly level in the latter half of the 12th graders through most of the 1980s, but began 1980s but, as was true for a number of other drugs, to decline after 1991 along with perceived risk.All use rose in all three grades between 1991 and 1996. three grades exhibited a decline in disapproval Annual prevalence at all three grades is now one- through 1996, with disapproval of experimentation quarter to one-third below the peak level reached in dropping a total of 11 percentage points between 1996. Use continued to drop for the 10th grade in 1991 and 1996 among 12th graders.After 1996 2001, but leveled in the other grades. there emerged a slight increase indisapproval among 12th graders, accompanied by a leveling Perceived Risk among 10th graders and some further decline We think it likely that perceived risk for LSD use among 8th graders. Since 1999 disapproval of LSD had grown in the early 1970s, before this study use has declined some in all three grades. began, as concerns about possible neurological and genetic effects spread (most of which were never Availability scientifically confirmed), and also as concern about Reported availability of LSD by 12th graders has "bad trips" grew. However, there was some variedquiteabitovertheyears. Itfell decline in perceived risk in the late 1970s. The considerably from 1975 to 1983, remained level for degreeofriskassociatedwith LSD experi- a few years, and then began a substantial rise after mentation then remained fairly level among 12th 1986, reaching a peak in 1995. LSD availability graders through most of the 1980s but began a also rose among 8th and 10th graders in the early substantialdeclineafter1991,dropping 12 1990s, reaching a peak in 1995 or 1996. Since percentage points by 1997, before leveling and those peak years, there has been some falloff in then dropping slightly after 1998.From the time availability inall three grades, particularly 12th that perceived risk was first measured among 8th gradequite possibly because fewer students have and 10th graders, in 1993, through 1998, perceived LSD-using friends through whom they could gain risk fell in both of these grades, as well. The fact access. that use has been declining in recent years, despite

1 7

12 LSO: Tvends h Annud Use, Gas lc, Mseppeovall, and AvaiOaRDIty EIghth, Tenth, and TO Gvadeve

% who used in past year % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

30 100 -0-Twelfth Grade -0-Tenth Grade 24 80 -6-Eighth Grade

18 60

12 40

6 20

0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 TO T2 T4 T6 68 TO T2 T4 T6 V8 TO

Year Year

18 C caine

Forsomeyearscocainewasusedalmost gan. The year 1986 was marked by a national me- exclusively in powder form, though "freebasing" dia frenzy over crack cocaine, and also by the emerged for a while. Then in the early 1980s came widely publicized cocaine-related death of Len the advent of crack cocaine. Our original questions Bias, a National Basketball Association first-round did notdistinguish among different forms of draft pick. Bias' death was originally reported as cocaine or different modes of administration, but resulting from his first experience with cocaine. simply asked about using cocaine.The findings Though that later turned out not to be the case, the contained in this section report on the results of message had already "taken."We believe this those more inclusivequestions asked of 12th event helped to persuade many young people that graders over the years. use of cocaine at any level, no matter how healthy the individual, was dangerous. Perceived risk con- In 1987 we also began to ask separate questions tinued to rise through 1990, and the fall in use con- about the use of crack cocaine and "cocaine other tinued. Perceived risk began to decline after 1991, than crack," which was comprised almost entirely and use began a long rise a year later.Although of powdercocaineuse.Data onthese two cocaine use has declined in recent years, perceived components of overall cocaine use are contained in risk has continued to fall graduallybut leveled the tables in this report, and crack is discussed in for crack and cocaine powder, specifically. the next section. Disapproval Trends in Use Disapprovalof cocaineuseby12thgraders There have been some important changes in the followed a cross-time pattern similar to that for levelsof overallcocaine use (which includes perceivedrisk,althoughits7 percentage-point crack) over the life of the study. Use among 12th jump in 1987 was not quite so pronounced. There graders originally burgeoned in the late 1970s, then was some decline from 1991 to 1997, but fair remained fairly stable through the first half of the stability since then, despite the decline in perceived 1980s, before starting a precipitous decline after risk. 1986. Annual prevalence among 12th graders dropped by about three-quarters between 1986, AvaHability when it was 12.7%, and 1992, when it reached The proportion of 12th graders saying that it would 3.1%. Between 1992 and 1999, use reversed be "fairly easy" or "very easy" for them to get course again and doubled to 6.2%, before declining cocaine if they wanted some was 33% in 1977, to 4.8% by 2001. Use also rose in 8th and 10th rose to 48% by 1980, held fairly level through grades after 1992, before reaching recent peak 1985, increased further to 59% by 1989 (in a levels in 1998 and 1999, respectively. In the past 2 period of rapidly declining use), and then fell back to 3 years, use has dropped some in all grades. to about 49% by 1993.Since then, perceived availability has remained fairly steady.Note that Perceived Risk the pattern of change does not map all that well General questions about the dangers of cocaine and ontothepatternsof changeinactualuse, disapproval of cocaine have been asked only of suggesting that changes in overall availability may 12th graders.The results tell a fascinating story. not have been a major determinant of use They show that perceived risk for experimental use particularly of the sharp decline in use in the late fell in the late 1970s (when use was rising), stayed 1980s.The advent of crack cocaine in the early level in the first half of the 1980s (when use was 1980s, however, provided a lower cost form of level), and then jumped very sharply in a single cocaine,thusreducingthepriorsocialclass year (by 14 percentage points between 1986 and differences in use (documented in our other pub- 1987), just when the substantial decline in use be- lications).

1 9 14 Cocaine (ncluang Crack): ?Vends lin Annual Use, Mak, DisepprovaD, nd AvdDedOlty EIghrah, Tenth, and Tvge °fah avaders

% who usiiin last twelve months % seeing "great ask" in using once or twice

30 100 -0-Twelfth Grade -5- Tenth Grade 24 80 -6- Eighth Grade

18 60

12 40

6 20

0 '76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60 60

ao 40

20 20

0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

Cr 2 0 Crack Cocahis

Several indirect indicators in the study suggested 1990s may well reflect anexample of that crack use grew rapidly in the period 1983- "generational forgetting," wherein the class cohorts 1986, starting before we had direct measures of thatwereinadolescence whentheadverse crack use. In 1986 we asked a single usage consequences were most obvious are replaced by question in one of the five questionnaire forms newer cohorts who heard less about the dangers of given to 12th graders: those who indicated any the drug when they were growing up. cocaine use in the prior 12 months were asked if they had used crack. The results from that question Disapproval represent the first data point in the first panel on Disapproval of crack use was not included in the the facing page.After that, our usual set of three study until 1990, by which time it was at a very questions about use was asked about crack and was high level, with 92% of 12th graders saying that inserted into several questionnaire forms. they disapproved of even trying it.Disapproval of crack use eased steadily in all three grades from Trends in Use 1991 through about 1997, before stabilizing. After 1986 there was a precipitous drop in crack use among12th gradersone thatcontinued Availability through 1991. After 1991, all three grades showed Crack availability remained relatively stable across a slow and steady increase in use through 1998. the interval for which data are available, as the Indeed, crack was one of the few drugs still in- fourth panel on the facing page illustrates.In 1987 creasing in use in 1998. In 1999, crack use finally some 41% of 12th graders said it would be fairly started to drop in 8th and 10th grades. The recent easy for them to get crack if they wanted some, and peak in 12th grade was reached in 1999 (2.7%), but there has been little change since. Eighth and tenth there was a significant drop to 2.1% by 2001. graders, however, did report some modest increase in availability in the early 1990s, followed by a Perceived Risk slow, steady decrease after 1995 in 8th grade and a By thetime we addedquestionsaboutthe sharper drop after 1999 in 10th. perceived risk of using crack in1987,it was already seen as one of the most dangerous of all the NOTE: Thedistinctionbetweencrack illicit drugs by 12th graders: 57% saw a great risk cocaine and other forms of cocaine (mostly in even tryingit. This compared to 54% for powder) was not made until the middle of the heroin, for example.(See the previous section on life of the study.The charts on the facing cocaine for a discussion of changes in perceived page begintheirtrendlines when these risk in 1986.) Perceived risk for crack rose still distinctions were introduced for the different higher through 1990, reaching 64% of 12th graders types of measures.Charts are not presented who said they thought there was a great risk in hereforthe"otherformsofcocaine" taking crack once or twice. (Use was dropping measures, simply because the trend curves during that interval.)After 1990 some falloff in look extremely similar to those for crack. perceived risk began, well before crack use began (All the statistics are contained in the tables to increase in 1994.Thus, here again perceived presented later.) The absolute levels of use, risk was a leading indicator.Between 1991 and risk,etc.,are somewhat different, but the 1998 there was a considerable falloff in this belief trends are very similar.Usage levels tend to in grades 8 and 10, as use rose quite steadily. Risk be higher for cocaine powder compared to leveled in 2000 in grades 8 and 12 and a year later crack, the levels of perceived risk a bit lower, in grade10. We thinkthat thedeclinesin while disapproval and availability are quite perceived risk for crack and cocaine during the close for the two different forms of cocaine.

21 16 Crack: Trends in Annual Use, Risk, lalsapprroval, and Availability Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

10 100 -0- Twelfth Grade -0-Tenth Grade 8 80 -.0- Eighth Grade

6 60

4 40

2 20

o 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100 *-41@ztpftteg 80 80

60 60

40 40

A.-4retr4"t" 20 20

0 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

22 AmphetamMes

Amphetamines, aclassofpsychotherapeutic for this drug than for a number of others, although stimulants, have had a relatively high prevalence of the expected inverse association pertained during use in the youth population for many years.The much of the period 1975-2001 There was decrease behavior reported here is supposed to exclude any in risk during the period 1975-1981 (when use was use under medical supervision. Amphetamines are rising), some increase in risk in 1986-1991 (when controlled substancesthey are not supposed to be use was falling), and some decline in perceived bought or sold without a doctor's prescriptionbut risk from 1991 to 1995 (in advance of use rising some are diverted from legitimate channels, and again).But in the interval 1981-1986, risk was some are manufactured and/or imported illegally. quite stable even though usefell considerably. Since those are the years of peak cocaine use, it Trends in Use seemslikelythatsomeofthedeclinein The use of amphetamines rose in the last half of the amphetamine use in the 1980s was not due to a 1970s, reaching a peak in 1981two years after change in attitudes specific to that drug, but rather marijuana use peaked. We believe that the usage due to some displacement by another stimulant rate reached in 1981 (annual prevalence of 26%) cocaine. may have been an exaggeration of true amphetamine use, because "look-alikes" were in common Disapprovai use at that time.After 1981 a long and steady de- Relatively high proportions of 12th graders have cline in use by 12th graders began, and did not end disapproved ofeven trying amphetamines until 1992. throughout the life of the study (between 70% and 87%). Disapproval did not change in the late As with many other illicit drugs, amphetamines 1970s, despite the increase in use, though there made a comeback inthe1990s, with annual seemed to be a one-year drop in 1981. From 1981 prevalence starting to rise by 1992 among 8th to 1992 disapproval rose gradually from 71% to graders and by 1993 among the 10th and 12th 87% as use steadily declined. Disapproval then fell graders.Use peaked in the lower two grades by back about 6 or 7 percentage points in the next 1996 and in 12th grade by 1997. Since those peak couple of years (as use rose), before stabilizing. years, use declined by about a quarter in 8th grade, by less in 10th, and not at all in 12th. No further Availability decline was seen in 2001. When the study started in 1975, amphetamines had a high level of reported availability. The level fell Perceived Risk by about 10 percentage points by 1977, drifted up a Only 12th graders are asked questions about the bit through 1980, jumped sharply in 1981, and then amount of risk they associate with amphetamine began a long, gradual decline through 1991. There use or about their disapproval of that behavior. was a modest increase in availability at all three Overall, perceivedrisk has been lessstrongly grade levels in the early 1990s, followed by some correlated with usage levels (at the aggregate level) decline later, and stability after 1997.

18 Amphetamines: Trends in Annual Use, Risk, Disapproval, and Availability Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great rise in using once or twice

60 1 00 -0- Twelfth Grade -0- Tenth Grade 48 80 Eighth Grade

36 60

24 40

1 2 20

0 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

1 00 1 00

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

24 liVilethampistam]ne andDce

One subclass ofamphetamines is called methamphetamine ("ice") use in the prior year, a methamphetamine. This subclass (at one time figure which climbed to 3.0% by 1998, followed called "speed") has been around for a long time by a decline to 2.2% by 2000.It was 2.5% in and gave rise to the phrase "speed kills" in the 2001. (Note that these prevalence rates are quite 1960s. Probably because of the reputation it got at close to those derived from the other question that time as a particularly dangerous drug, it was procedure, just described.) not very popular for a long time.As a result, we did not even include a full set of questions about its Respondingtothegrowingconcernabout use in the study's questionnaires.One form of methamphetamine use in generalnot just crystal methamphetamine,crystalmethamphetamineor methamphetamine usewe added a fullset of "ice," grew in popularity in the 1980s. It comes in three questions about the use of any crystallized form, as the name implies, and the methamphetamine to the 1999 questionnaires for chunks can be heated and the fumes inhaled, much allthree grade levels. These questions yield a like crack cocaine. somewhat higherannualprevalencefor12th graders: 4.3% in 2000, compared to the sum of the Trends in Use crystal meth and methamphetamine answers in the For most of the life of the study the only question other question format, which totaled 2.8%. It about methamphetamine use has been contained in would appear, then, that the long-term method we a single 12th grade questionnaire form. had been using for tracking methamphetamine use Respondents who indicated using any type of probably yielded an understatement of the absolute amphetamines in the prior 12 months were asked prevalence level, perhaps because some proportion in a sequel question to check on a pre-specified list of methamphetamineusersdidnotcorrectly which types they had used during that period. categorizethemselvesinitiallyas amphetamine "Methamphetamine" was one type on the list, and users (even though methamphetamine was given as data exist on its use since 1976.In 1976, annual one of the components of the amphetamines). We prevalence was 1.9%; it then rose to 3.7% by 1981 think it unlikely that the shape of the trend curve (the peak year), before declining for a long period was distorted, however. of time to 0.4% by 1992.It then rose again in the 1990s, reaching 1.3% by 1998, before declining to The newer questions show fairly high levels of 0.9% in 1999 and then rising to 1.5% in 2001.In methamphetamine use: annual prevalence rates in other words,it followed a cross-time trajectory 2001 of 2.8%, 3.7%, and 3.9% for 8th, 10th, and very similar to that for amphetamines as a whole. 12th grades, respectively.Still, these levels are down some from 1999 in all three grade levels (not That questionnaire form also had "crystal meth" statistically significant). added in 1989 as another answer category that could be checked.It showed a level rate of use Other Measures from 1989 to 1993 (at around 1.1%) followed by a No questions have yet been added to the study on period of increase to 2.5% by 1998 and then a perceivedrisk,disapproval, or availability with decline to 1.9% in 2000. In 2001 it stood at 2.1%. regard to overall methamphetamine use. Data on two of these variables for crystal methamphet- In 1990, in the 12th grade questionnaires only, we amine, specifically, may be found on the facing introduced our usual set of three questions, and page. 1.3%of12thgradersindicatedanycrystal

20 Oce: Trends hl AnnueD Use, Rosh, end AveHebiHty EIghth, Tenth, end Tuee Nth Graders

% who used in oast tweive months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

10 100 -0- Twelfth Grade -c- Tenth Grade 8 80 Ei ghth Grade

6 60

4 ao

2 20

0 0 '76 '78 SO 82 84 86 88 SO '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "lairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

so 60 (no data) 40 40

20 20

0 0 '76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '76 78 '80 82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

213 Herron

Heroin is a derivative of opium. For many decades decrease among 10th and 12th graders in 2001 was it has been taken primarily by means of injection due to decreasing use without injecting. into a vein.However, in the 1990s the purity of available heroin reached very high levels, making Perceived Risk other modes of administration (like snorting and Students have long seen heroin to be one of the smoking) practical alternatives toinjection. most dangerous drugs, which no doubt helps to Therefore, in 1995, we introduced questions that account both for the consistently high level of per- asked separately about using heroin with and sonal disapproval of use (see next section) and the without a needle, so that we might see to what quite low prevalence of use.There have been extent use without injection helped to explain the some changes in perceived risk levels over the upsurge in use then occurring. The usage statistics years, nevertheless. B etween 1975 and 1986, per- presented on the facing page are based on heroin ceived risk gradually declined, even though use use by any method. dropped and then stabilized in that interval.There was then an upward shift in 1987 (the same year Trends in Use that perceived risk for cocaine jumped dramati- The annual prevalence of heroin use among 12th cally) to a new level, where it held for four years. graders fell by half between 1975 and 1979, from In 1992 risk dropped to a lower plateau again, a 1.0% to 0.5%. The rate then held amazingly steady year or two before use started to rise.Perceived for about 14 years.After about 1993, though, her- risk then rose again in the latter half of the 1990s oin use began to rise, and it rose substantially until and use leveled off. Based on the short interval for 1996 (among 8th graders) or 1997 (among 10th which we have such data from 8th and 10th grad- and 12th graders).The prevalence rates roughly ers, it may be seen that perceived risk rose among doubled at each grade level.Use then stabilized them between 1995 and 1997, foretelling an end to through 1999.In 2000 it declined significantly at the increase in use.Note that perceived risk has 8th grade while rising significantly at 12th; but in served as a leading indicator of use for this drug, as 2001 annual prevalence declined significantly to well as for a number of others. 0.9% in both 10th and 12th grades. Disapproval The questions about use with and without a needle There has been very little fluctuation in the very were not introduced until the 1995 survey, so they high disapproval levels for heroin use over the didnotencompass much of theperiodof years, though what change there was in the last half increasinguse. Responses to these questions of the 1990s was consistent with the concurrent showed that by then about equal proportions of all changes in perceived risk and use. users at 8th grade were using each of the two methods of ingestion, and somenearly a third of Availability the userswere using both ways. At 10th grade a The proportion of 12th grade students saying they somewhat higher proportion of allusers took could get heroin fairly easily, if they wanted some, heroin by injection, and at 12th grade a higher remained around 20% through the mid-1980s; it proportion still. Much of the remaining increase in then increased considerably from 1986 to 1992, overall heroin use beyond 1995 occurred in the before stabilizing at about 35%. At the lower grade proportions using it without injecting, which we levels, reported availability has been less, and has stronglysuspect was trueinthe immediately declined some since the mid-1990s. preceding period of increase, as well. All of the

27 ' 22 Heroin: Trends in Amami Use, Risk, Disapprovai, and v liability Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice*

5 100

-0- Twelfth Grade Tenth Grade 4 80 -6- Eighth Grade loPeLsrliwe

3 60 .. ' . '

2 40

20 r

0 '76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 VO '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

so 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 '76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

*Prior to 1995, the question asked about heroin use in general. Since 1995, the question has asked about heroin use without a needle.

28 Trangurifters

Tranquilizers constitute another class of Perceived Risk psychotherapeutic drugs that are legally sold only Data have not been collected on thisvariable, by prescription,like amphetamines. They are primarily due to questionnaire space limitations. central nervous depressants and for the most part are comprised ofbenzodiazepines (minor Disapproval tranquilizers, such as Valium).Respondents are Data have not been collected on thisvariable, told to exclude any medically prescribed use from either. their answers. Availability Trends in Use As the number of 12th graders reporting non- During thelate1970s andallof the1980s, medically prescribed tranquilizer use fell tranquilizers fell steadily from popularity, with use dramatically during the 1970s and 1980s, so did declining by three-quarters among 12th graders the proportion saying that tranquilizers would be over the 15-year interval between 1977 and 1992. fairly easy to get.Whether declining use caused Their use made a bit of a comeback during the the decline in availability, or vice versa, is unclear. 1990s,along with many otherdrugs.Annual Perceived availability fell from 72% in 1975 to prevalence more than doubled among 12th graders, 33% in 2001. Most of that decline occurred before risingsteadilyto 6.5% by 2001. (Thisrate the 1990s, though there was some further, drop in compares to 10.8% in the peak year of 1977.) Use the 1990s at all three grade levels, despite the fact also has been rising steadily among 10th graders. that use rose some. Use peaked among 8th gradersin1996 and remains at about the same level in 2001.

29 24 Tranquiiimers: Trends in Amami Use and Avaiithiiity Eighth, Tenni, and Tweifah Orraders

% who used in last Waive months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

30 1 00 -0-Twelfth Grade -15- Tenth Grade 24 80 -6- Eighth Grade

1 8 60 (no data)

1 2 40

76 78 '80 82 84 '86 '88 '90 '92 94 '96 98 '00 76 78 SO 82 84 '86 88 VO '92 94 96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

1 00 1 00

80 80

so 60 (no data) 40

20 20

0 76 78 SO 82 '84 86 '88 VO 92 94 '96 98 '00 76 78 SO '82 84 '66 88 VO 92 94 96 98 '00

Year Year

30 BarbEiturates

Liketranquilizers,barbituratesedatives are Perceived Risk prescription-controlledpsychotherapeuticdrugs Trying barbiturates was never seen by most stu- that are central nervous system depressants.They dents as being very dangerous, and it is clear from are used toassistsleepandrelieveanxiety. the second facing panel that perceived risk cannot Respondents are instructed to exclude from their do much to explain the trends in use which oc- answers any usethat occurred under medical curred through 1986, at least.Perceived risk actu- supervision. Usage data are reported only for 12th ally declined a bit between 1975 and 1986an graders, because we believe that students in the interval in which use also was declining. But then lower grades tend tooverreportuse,perhaps perceived risk shifted up some through 1991, con- including their use of nonprescription sleep aids or sistent with the fact that use was still falling. It then other over-the-counter drugs. dropped back some through 1995, as use was in- Trends in Use creasing. Like tranquilizers, the use of barbiturates by 12th Disapproval graders fell in popularity rather steadily from the Like many of the illicit drugs other than marijuana, mid-1970s through the early 1990s. From 1975 to barbiturates have received the disapproval of the 1992, use fell by three-fourths, from 10.7% annual great majority of all high school graduating classes prevalence to 2.8%. Usage rates showed some over the past 25 years, though there have been resurgence thereafter,reaching 6.2% by 2000, some changes in level.Those changes have been before finally leveling in 2001. consistent with the changes in actual use observed. Disapproval of using a barbiturate once or twice Another class of sedatives, methaqualone, has been rose from 78% in 1975 to a high of 91% in 1990, included in the study from the beginning. In 1975 where it held for two years. Then disapproval methaqualone use was about half the level of eroded a bit to 86% by 2000 during a period of barbiturate use.Its use also declined steadily from increasing use. It remains there in 2001. 1981, when annual prevalence was 7.6%, through 1993,whenannualprevalencereachedthe Availability negligible level of 0.2%. Use increased some for a As the fourth facing panel shows, the availability couple of years, reaching 1.1% in 1996, where it of barbiturates has generally been declining during remained through 1999. Use then dropped to 0.8% most of the life of the study, except for one shift up in 2001. which occurred in 1981.

31 26 Barrbikorates: Trends in Annual Use, Risk, Disapproval, and Availability Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders

% who used in Oast twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

30 100 Twelfth Grade Tenth Grade 24 80 -6- Eighth Grade

18 60

12 40

6 20

0 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "Way easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

32 "COub Drugs" Ecstasy and Rohypnd

There are a number of "club drugs," so labeled Their results showed ecstasy use beginning to rise because they are popular at night clubs and all- above trace levels in 1995, and continuing to rise at night dance parties called "raves."This informal least through 2000.)Annual prevalence in 10th categoryincludesLSD, MDMA ("ecstasy"), and 12th grades in 1996 was 4.6%actually con- Rohypnol, methamphetamine, Ketamine("special siderably higher than among college students and K"), and GITB. We will deal here primarily with young adults at that pointbut fell in both grades ecstasy and Rohypnol. LSD and over the next two years. Use then rose sharply in methamphetamine already have been discussed, both grades in 1999 and 2000, bringing annual and Ketamine and GHB were just added to the prevalence up to 5.4% among 10th graders and questionnaire in 2000. 8.2% among 12th graders. In 2000 use also began to rise among 8th graders, to 3.1%.In 2001, use The annual prevalence of Mil g, use in 2001 was increased again in all three grades, but by less than 1.1%, 1.0%, and 1.6% in grades 8, 10, and 12. The in the two previous years.' In other words, the in- annual prevalence of Ketamine use was 1.3%, crease was slowing. 2.1%,and 2.5%. Both remainedessentially unchanged in 2001 from their levels in 2000the Perceived Risk and Disapproval first year in which they were measured. The charts on the facing page show little change in perceived risk of ecstasy until 2001, when it Rohypnol and GHB have been labeled "date rape jumped by 8 percentage points; this sharp rise drugs" because both can induce amnesia of events likely explains the deceleration of the increase in that occurred while under the influence of the drug use.Disapproval of ecstasy use hasdeclined and have been used in connection with rapes or slightly since 1998. seductions.Use is likely underreported since the user may be unaware of having used the drugs. AvaiiabHity The charts also show a dramatic rise in perceived Questions about the use of Rohypnol were added availability since 1991particularly in the years to the survey in 1996. They revealed low levels of 2000 and 2001.Special analyses show that this use that the respondent was able to reportaround drug is still diffusing to communities that have not 1% in all three grade levels.At 8th grade, use had it before, possibly explaining why use rose in began falling immediately after 1996 and by 1999 2001 despite the sharp increase in perceived risk. had fallen by half.In the upper two grades, use The increase in ecstasy use in 1999 occurred first rose for a year or two before beginning to fall primarilyin the Northeast and inlargecities, back to its original level by 1999. There has been whereas in 2000 the increase diffused into all of rather little net change in use since 1999. the other regions.

Limitationsonquestionnairespaceprecluded askingaboutperceivedrisk,disapproval,or availability. Ecstasy Trends in Use Ecstasy is actually a form of methamphetamine but 'The 2000-2001 increases in use were not statistically significant for individual grades, but were significant across the three grades combined. is used more for its mildly hallucinogenic proper- Thirty-day prevalence showed a less consistent pattern of change this ties.Questions about the use of MDMA, or ec- year, possibly reflecting a very recent turnaround in use in 12th grade; but stasy, were added to the surveys of secondary another year of data is needed to clarify this. school students in 1996. (We have had questions on this drug since 1991 in the questionnaires answered by college students and young adults.

28 33 MOMA (Ecstasy): Trends h Monad Use, Mak, OtsapprovaD, and AvaElabMty EIghth, Tenth, and Twain Graders

% who used in Oast twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

10 100 -0-Twelfth Grade -c- Tenth Grade 8 80 Eighth Grade

6 60

4 40

2 20

0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

3 4 14=EloD

Alcoholic beverageswhich include beer, wine, aggregatebetweenalcoholandmarijuanaa wine coolers, and hard liquorhave been among hypothesis frequently heard.The two drugs have the most widely used substances by American moved much more in parallel over the years than in young people for a very long time.In 2001 the opposite directions. proportions of 8th,10th, and 12th graders who admitted drinking an alcoholic beverage in the 30- Perceived Risk day period prior to the survey were 22%, 39%, and While for most of the study the majority of 12th 50%, respectively.There are quite a number of gradershavenotviewedbingedrinkingon usage measures of relevance for alcohol,all of weekends as carrying a great risk (see panel two), which are contained in the tables at the end of this there was infact a fair-sized increase inthis report. Here we will focus on the pattern of measure between 1982, when it was 36%, and alcoholconsumptionthatprobablyisof the 1992, when it reached 49%. There then followed a greatest publichealth concernepisodic heavy modestdeclineto 43% by1997,beforeit drinking, or what we have called "binge drinking" stabilized. These changes track fairly well the for short. Itis measured in this study by the changes in actual binge drinking. We believe that reported number of occasionson whichthe the public service advertising campaigns in the respondent had five or more drinks in a row during 1980s against drunk driving, in general, as well as theprior two-week interval. We present the those that urged use of designated drivers when prevalence of such binge drinking behavior in the drinking, may have contributed to the increase in first panel. perceived risk of binge drinking. As we have published elsewhere, drunk driving by 12th graders Trends in Use declined during that period by an even larger Judging by the data from 12th graders, binge proportion than did binge drinking. drinking reached its peak at about the time that overall illicit drug use did, in 1979.It held steady Disapproval foracoupleofyearsandthendeclined Disapproval of weekend binge drinking moved substantially from 41% in 1983 to a low of 28% in fairly parallel with perceived risk, suggesting that 1992 (also the low point of any illicit drug use). increasingly such drinking (and very likely the This was an important improvementa drop of drunk-driving behavior often associated with it) almost one-third in binge drinking. Although illicit became unacceptable in the peer group. Note that druguseroseconsiderablyinthe1990sin the rates of disapproval and perceived risk for proportional terms, binge drinking rose by only a binge drinking are higher in the lower grades than small fractionabout 4 percentage points among in 12th grade. Both variables showed some erosion the 12th gradersbetween 1992 and 1998. There at all grade levels in the early 1990s. was some upward drift between 1991 (13%) and 1996 (16%) among 8th graders, and between 1992 Availability (21%) and 1997 (25%) among 10th graders. In the Perceived availability of alcohol, which until 1999 years since those recent peaks, there has been a was asked only of 8th and 10th graders, has been slight decline in use in all three grades, but the very high and mostly steady in the 1990s, although changes have been very modest. there has been some decline in 8th grade since 1996. One point to note in these findings is that there is no evidence of any "displacement effect" in the

30 35 ADCONDO: Tvende ihn [Angle Dainldng, Gash, Cftapprovell, end AvMDEMOilty Egh.Rh, 'Tenth, and Twegn Graders

% who had 5+ drinks in a row % seeing "great risk" in having 5+ drinks in a row in previous two weeks once or twice each weekend

100 100 -0-Twelfth Grade Tenth Grade so 80 -6- Eighth Grade

60 60

40 40 . .

20 20

'76 '78 SO '82 84 SO '88 SO '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 SO '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of having 5+ drinks in a row % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" once or twice each weekend to get alcohol

100 100 0-0-0

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

36 Cgarettes

Cigarette smoking has been called the greatest Perceived Risk preventable cause of disease and mortality in the Among 12th graders, the proportion seeing great United States.At current rates of smoking, this risk in pack-a-day smoking rose before and during statement surely remains truefor these newer some of the time that use first declined.It leveled cohorts of young people. in 1980 (before use leveled), declined a bit in 1982, Trends in Use but then started to rise again gradually for five years. (It is possible that cigarette advertising ef- We knowthatdifferencesinsmokingrates fectively offset the effects of rising perceptions of between different birth cohorts (or, in this case, risk during that five-year period.)Perceived risk high school class cohorts) tend to stay with those fell some in the early 1990s at all three grade levels cohorts throughout the life cycle.This means that as use increased sharply; but after 1995 perceived it is critical to prevent smoking very early.It also risk began to climb in all three grades (coincident means that the trends in a given historical period with use starting to decline in grades 8 and 10, but may differ across different grade levels. a year before it started to decline in 12th grade). Note the considerable disparity of the levels of per- Among12thgraders,30-dayprevalenceof ceived risk among grade levels. For some years, smoking reached a peak in 1976, at 39%. (The only around 50% of 8th graders saw great risk in peak likely occurred considerably earlier for lower pack-a-day smoking. grade levels, as these same class cohorts passed through them in previous years.) There was about Disapproval a one-quarter drop in 30-day prevalence between Disapproval rates for smoking have been fairly 1976 and 1981, when the rate reached 29%, a level high throughout the study and, unlike perceived at which it remained for more than a decade, until risk, are higher in the lower grade levels. Among 1992 (28%). 12th graders there was a gradual increase in disapproval of smoking from 1976 to 1986, a slight ero- Inthe1990s, smoking began torisesharply, sion over the following five years, then a steeper starting in 1992 among 8th and 10th graders, and erosion from the early 1990s through 1997.Since in 1993 among 12th graders. Over the next four to 1997, disapproval has been increasing among 12th five years smoking rates increased by about one- graders. In the two lower grades a decline in disap- half in the lower two grades and by almost one- proval occurred between 1991 and 1996, the period thirdingrade 12very substantialincreases. of sharply increasing use. Since those low points, Smoking peaked in 1996 for 8th and 10th graders there has been a steady increase in disapproval. A and in 1997 for 12th graders, before beginning a number of other attitudes related to smoking have decline that continued into 2001. Since those peak been becoming more negative, as well. levels in the mid-1990s, the 30-day prevalence of smoking has declined by 42% in 8th grade, 30% in Availability 10th, and 19% in 12th.(In 2000 a single question Availability of cigarettes is reported as very high was introduced to measure the annual prevalence by 8th and 10th graders. (We do not ask the of "bidis," a type of flavored cigarette imported question of 12th graders, for whom we assume from India. The 2001 annual rates for 8th, 10th, accessibilityisnearlyuniversal.)Since1996 and 12th graders were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 7.0%. For availability has been declining, particularly among the8thand10thgradesthisrepresenteda the 8th graders. significant decline in use.)

37 Cigarettes: Trends in 30-10ay Rise, RIsk, Disapprovai, and Avaiithiiity Eighth, Tenth, and Tweifth Graders

% seeing "great risk" in smoking a pack % who used in past 30 days or more per day

100 100 -0-Twelfth Grade -c- Tenth Grade 80 80 -0- Eighth Grade

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 '78 '80 82 84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of smoking a pack or more per day % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60 60

ao 40

20 20

0 0 76 78 '80 82 84 86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

38 SmokeOess Tobacco

Smokeless tobacco comes in two forms: "snuff' respectively, versus 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.6% among and "chew." Snuff isfinely ground tobacco females. The respective current daily use rates for usually sold in tins, either loose or in packets. It is males are 2.5%, 4.5%, and 5.6% compared to held in the mouth between the lip or cheek and 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.3% for females. There are some gums. Chew is a leafy form of tobacco, usually other important demographic differences as well. sold in pouches. It too is held in the mouth and Use tends to be much higher in the South and may, as the name suggests, be chewed. In both North Central regions of the country than in the cases,nicotineisabsorbedbythemucous Northeast and West.It also tends to be more membranes of the mouth. Because smokeless concentrated in non-metropolitanareas than tobaccostimulatessalivaproduction, it is metropolitan ones and to be negatively correlated sometimes referred to as "spit" tobacco. with the education level of the parents. Use also tends to be much higher among Whites than among Trends in Use African Americans or Hispanics. The use of smokeless tobacco by teens has been decreasing gradually from recent peak levels in the Perceived Risk mid-1990s, and the overall declines have been The recent low point in the level of perceived risk substantial. Among 8th graders 30-day prevalence for smokeless tobacco was 1995 in all three grades. is down from a 1994 peak of 7.7% to 4.0% in Since 1995 there has been a gradual but substantial 2001; 10th graders' use is down from a 1994 peak increase in proportions saying there is a great risk of 10.5% to 6.9% in 2001; and 12th graders' use is in usingit regularlyamong 8th graders, from down from a 1995 peak of 12.2% to 7.8% in 2001. 34% to 38% in 2001; and among 10th graders, These reflect relative declines from peak levels of from 38% to 46%. Among 12th graders, perceived 48%, 34%, and 36%, respectively. One could say, risk went from 33% in 1995 to 45% in 2001.It more generally, that teen use of smokeless tobacco thus appears that one important reason for the ap- is down by about 40% from the peak levels preciable declines in smokeless tobacco use during reached in the mid-1990s. the latter half of the 1990s was the fact that an increasing proportion of young people were per- Thirty-day prevalence of daily use of smokeless suaded of the dangers of using it. tobacco also has fallen gradually, but appreciably, in recent years. The daily usage rates in 2001 are Disapproval 1.2%, 2.2%, and 2.8% in grades 8, 10, and 12. Only 8th and 10th graders are asked about their These are down by between a quarter and a half personal disapproval of using smokeless tobacco from the peak levels recorded in the early 1990s, regularly. The recent low points for disapproval in with the greatest proportional decline in 8th grade both grades were 1995 and 1996.Since 1996, and the least in 12th. disapproval has risen from 74% to 79% among 8th graders and from 71% to 76% among 10th graders. It should be noted that smokeless tobacco use amongAmericanyoungpeople is almost Availability exclusively a male behavior.For example, among There are no questions in the study concerning the males the 30-day prevalence rates in 2001 are perceived availability of smokeless tobacco. 6.9%, 12.7%, and 14.2% in grades 8, 10, and 12,

34 3 9 Somoke[leas Tobacco: Trends lin 30-Day Use, Mak, Disapproval], and Avanabrfilty Eighth, Tenth, and Tweaftth Graders

% who used in past 30 days % seeing "great risk" in using reguaarly

30 100 -°- Twelfth Grade -0-Tenth Grade 24 80 -6-Eighth Grade

18 60

12 40

6 20

0 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using regulariy % saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get

100 100

80 80

60- 60 (no data) 40- 40

20- 20

0 0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

Year Year

4 0 Steiroh'ds

Unlike all of the other drugs discussed in this 1992the low point.From 1992 to 1999 there volume, anabolic steroids are not usually taken for was a more gradual increase in use, reaching 1.7% their psychoactiveeffects,but ratherfortheir in 2000. In 2001 use rose significantly among 12th physical effects on the body, in particular for their graders, quite possibly reflecting the effect of the effects on muscle and strength development. They younger, heavier-using cohorts getting older. are similar to the other drugs studied here, though, in that they are controlled substances for which Perceived Risk thereisanillicitmarket and which can have Perceived risk and disapproval were asked of 8th adverse consequences for the user. Questions and 10th graders only for a few years, before the about their use were added to the study beginning space was allocated to other questions.All grades in 1989.Respondents are asked: "Steroids, or seemed to have a peak in perceived risk around anabolicsteroids,are sometimes prescribed by 1993.The longer-term data from 12th graders, doctors to promote healing from certain types of however, show a 6 percentage-point drop between injuries. Some athletes, and others, have used 1998 and 1999, and another 4 percentage-point them to try to increase muscle development.On drop in 2000. This sharp a change is quite unusual how many occasions(if any) have you taken and highly significant, suggesting that some par- steroids on your ownthat is, without a doctor ticular event (or events) in 1998 changed beliefs telling you to take them...?" about the dangers of steroids. (It seems likely, that there was at least as large a drop in the lower Trends in Use grades, as well, where the sharp upturn in use oc- Steroidsareusedpredominatelybymales; curred that year.) therefore, data based on all respondents can mask the higher rates and larger fluctuations that occur Disapproval among males.For example, in 2001 the annual Disapproval of steroid use has been quite high for prevalence rates were two to four times as high some years.(Alongwiththehighlevelsof among males as among females. Boys' annual perceived risk, disapproval rates no doubt help to prevalence rates were 2.3%, 3.3%, and 3.8% in explain the low absolute prevalence rates.) By grades 8, 10, and 12, compared with 1.0%, 1.0%, 2000 there was only slight falloff in disapproval, and 1.1% for girls.Between 1991 and 1997 the despite the decline in perceived risk, but in 2001 overall annual prevalence rate was quite stable in there was a significant decrease in disapproval as 8th grade, ranging between 0.9% and 1.2%; and in well. 10th grade it was similarly stable, ranging between 1.0% and 1.2%.(See the first panel on the facing Availability page.) In 1999, however, use jumped from 1.2% to Perceived availability is quite high for steroids and 1.7% in 8th and 10th grades.Almost all of that considerably higher at the upper grades than in the increase occurred among boys (increasing from lower ones. However, it should be noted that some 1.6% to 2.5% in 8th grade and from 1.9% to 2.8% over-the-counter substances, like androstenedione, in 10th).In other words, the rates among boys are legally available to all age groups and are sold increased by about 50% in a single year.In 12th inhealthfoodstores,drugstores,andeven grade there was a different trend story.With data supermarkets. going back to 1989, we can see that steroid use first fell from 1.9% overall in 1989 to 1.1% in

36 41 Sterdds: Trends hl AnnagEd Use, Risk, IDAsepprows0, end AvsuOsbility Mghth, Tenth, end Tema Nth Graders

% who used in last twelve months % seeing "great risk" in using once or twice

100 -0-Twelfth Grade -0-Tenth Grade 80 -6- Eighth Grade

0 76 78 VO 82 84 '86 '88 '90 92 '94 96 98 '00 76 78 SO 82 84 '86 '88 '90 '92 94 96 '98 '00

Year Year

% disapproving of using once or twice % saying "fairly easy"or "very easy" to get

100 100 GitegV-0-0-0-0,0_%

80 80

60 60

40 40

6..tr,tr,tm!,..6,,tra.tra 20 20

0 76 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 VO 92 94 96 98 '00 76 78 10 '82 T4 86 118 VO 92 V4 V6 V8 TO

Year Year

42 Subgroup Dilfferemes

Space does not permit a full discussion or the Region off the Country documentation of the many subgroup differences The differencesassociated with region of the on the host of drugs covered inthisreport. country are sufficiently varied and complex that we However, the much longer versions of Volume I in cannot do justice to them here. In general, though, this same seriesboth the one published in 2001 the Northeast and the West have tended to have the and the one forthcoming in 2002contain an highest proportions of students using any illicit extensive appendix with tables giving the subgroup drug, and the South the lowest (though these prevalence levels and trends for all of the classes of rankings do not apply to many of the specific drugs discussed here.Chapters 4 and 5 in those drugs).In particular, the cocaine epidemic of the volumes also present a more in-depth discussion early 1980s was much more pronounced in the and interpretation of those differences. Com- West and the Northeast than in the other two parisons are made by gender, college plans, region regions, though the differences decreased as the of the country, community size, socio-economic overall epidemic subsided.While the South and level (as measured by the educational level of the the West once had lower rates of drinking among parents), and race/ethnicity. Monitoring the Future students than the other two regions had, those Occasional Paper 53, available on the study's Web differences have narrowed some in recent years. site(www.monitoringthefuture.org), providesin Cigarette smoking rates have consistently been graphic form the many subgroup trends for all lowest in the West. The upsurge of ecstasy use in drugs. 1999 occurred primarily in the Northeast, but that Gender drug's newfound popularity spread to the three otherregionsof thecountryin2000,while Generally, we have found males to have somewhat stabilizing in the Northeast. higher rates of illicit drug use than do females (particularly higher rates of frequent use), much Population Density higher rates of smokeless tobacco and steroid use, There have not been very large or consistent higherratesof heavydrinking,androughly differences in overallillicit drug use associated equivalentratesof cigarettesmoking (though with population density over the life of the study, among 12th graders the two genders have reversed helping to demonstrate just how ubiquitous the order twice during the life of the study).These illicit drug phenomenon has been in this country. gender differences appear to emerge as students In the last few years, the use of a number of drugs grow older. Usage rates for the various substances has declined more in the urban areas than in the tend to move much in parallel across time for both non-urban ones, leaving the non-urban areas with genders, although the absolute differences tend to higher rates of use. The upsurge in ecstasy use in be largest in the higher prevalence periods. 1999 was largely concentrated in urban areas, but College Plans in 2001thereare only modest differencesin ecstasy use as a function of population density. Those students who are not college-bound (a Crack and heroin use are not concentrated in urban decreasing proportion ofthe total youth areas, as is commonly believed, meaning that no population) are considerably more likely to be at parents should assume that their youngsters are risk for using illicit drugs, for drinking heavily, and immune to these threats simply because they do particularly for cigarette smoking while in high not live in a city. school than are the college-bound. Again, these differencesarelargestinperiodsof highest Socioeconomic Level prevalence. In the lower grades, the college-bound For manydrugsthedifferencesinuse by showed a greater increase in cigarette smoking in socioeconomic class are very small, and the trends the early to mid-1990s than did their noncollege- have been highly parallel.One very interesting bound peers. differenceoccurredforcocaine,whichwas positively associated with socioeconomic level in theearly1980s.That association had nearly

38 4 3 disappeared by 1986, however, with the advent of than for Whites, and thisisa difference that crack, which offered cocaine at a lower price. emerged largely during the life of the study (i.e., Cigarette smoking showed a similar narrowing of since 1975). class differences, but this timeit was a large negative association with socioeconomic level that Hispanics have rates of use that tend tofall diminished considerably, between roughly 1985 between the other two groups in 12th grade and 1993. In more recent years that negative usually closer to the rates for Whites than for association is re-emerging in the lower grades, as Blacks.(Hispanics do have the highest reported use declines faster among students from more rates of use for some drugs in 12th gradecrack educated families. Rates of binge drinking are and ecstasyand theirlevel of heroin useis roughly equivalent across the classes in the upper equivalent to that of Whites.) But in 8th grade they grades, and have been for some time among 12th tend to come out highest of the three racial/ethnic graders. groups on nearly all classes of drugs (amphetamines being the major exception). One Race/Ethnicity possible explanation for this change in ranking Among the most dramatic and interesting subgroup between 8th and 12th grade may lie in the fact that differences are those found among the three largest Hispanicyoungstershaveconsiderablyhigher racial/ethnic groupsWhites, African Americans, school dropout rates. Thus, more of the "drug- and Hispanics.Contrary to popular assumption, at prone" segment of that ethnic group may leave all three grade levels African American youngsters school before 12th grade than in the other two have substantially lower rates of use of most licit racial/ethnic groups.Another explanation could be and illicit drugs than do Whites. These include any thatHispanicsaremoreprecociousintheir illicit drug use, most of the specific illicit drugs, initiation of these sorts of behaviors. alcohol,andcigarettes. Infact,African Americans' use of cigarettes is dramatically lower

4 4 39 TABLE 1. Trends in Lifetime PrevakIcace of Use of Various Drunp for Eighth, Tenth, and TweIlfth Graders (Entries are percentages) Lifetime '00-201 Any Illicit Drug' 12th10th8th Grade Grade 199144.130.618.7 199240.729.820.6 199342.932.822.5 199445.637.425.7 199548.440.928.5 199650.845.431.2 199754.347.329.4 199854.144.929.0 199946.254.728.3 2000 54.045.626.82001 53.926.845.6change +0.1-0.10.0 Any Illicit DrugThan Other Marijuaneb 8th12th10th Grade Grade 26.919.114.3 25.119.215.6 26.720.916.8 27.621.717.5 28.124.318.8 28.525.519.2 30.025.017.7 29.423.616.9 29.424.016.3 23.115.8 23.414.8 +0.3-0.5-1.0 Any Illicit DrugIncluding Inhalants'''8th12th10th Grade Grade 47.636.128.5 44.436.229.6 46.638.732.3 49.142.735.1 51.545.938.1 53.549.839.4 56.350.938.1 56.149.337.8 56.349.937.2 57.049.335.129.0 28.5 56.048.834.5 -1.1-0.5-0.6 Inhalantsc'dMarijuana/Hashish 8th12th10th Grade Grade 36.723.410.2 32.621.411.2 35.324.412.6 38.230.416.7 41.734.119.9 44.939.823.1 49.642.322.6 49.139.622.2 49.740.922.0 48.840.320.3 49.040.120.4 +0.2+0.1-0.2 Nitrites° 8th10th12th Grade Grade 17.615.7 16.617.4 17.417.519.4 17.718.019.9 17.419.021.6 21.216.619.3 16.118.321.0 15.220.518.3 15.417.019.7 14.216.617.9 13.015.217.1 -1.2-1.4-0.8 Hallucinogens" 8th12th10th Grade Grade -9.66.13.21.6 - 9.26.43.81.5 10.9- 6.83.91.4 11.4-8.14.31.7 12.7- 9.35.21.5 14.010.5-5.91.8 15.110.5- 5.42.0 14.1 -9.84.92.7 13.7- 9.74.81.7 13.0- -8.94.60.8 12.8 7.84.01.9 +1.1s-0.2-1.1-0.7 - LSD 8th12th10th Grade Grade 8.85.62.7 8.65.83.2 10.3 6.23.5 10.5 7.23.7 11.7 8.44.4 12.6 9.45.1 13.6 9.54.7 12.6 8.54.1 12.2 8.54.1 11.1 7.63.9 10.9 6.33.4 -0.2-1.2-0.4 HallucinogensOther Than 8thLSDb12th10th Grade Grade 3.72.21.4 3.32.51.7 3.92.81.7 4.93.82.2 5.43.92.5 6.84.73.0 7.54.82.6 7.15.02.5 6.74.72.4 6.94.82.3 4.07.01.8 +0.1-0.8-0.5 45 PCP° 8th12th10th Grade Grade -2.9 -(Table2.4 continued on next page) - 2.9 -2.8 - 2.7 -4.0 - 3.9 -3.9 - 3.4 - -3.4 3.5 +0.2 - 46 Trends in Lifetime Prevallence of Use of Various Drugs for Eighth, Tenth, mild Twellfth Graders TABLE 1 (cont.) Lifetime MDMA (Ecstasy)8th12th10th Grade f Grade 1992 1993 la95 1996 1997 6.15.63.4 6.95.73.2 ,Dati 5.85.12.7 1999 8.06.02.7 MQ 11.0KU 4.37.3 11.7 8.05.2 +0.7+1.0change'00-'01 Cocaine Crack 12th8th10th Grade Grade Grade -7.84.12.3 - 6.13.32.9 - 6.13.62.9 -5.94.33.6 -6.05.04.2 7.16.54.5 8.77.14.4 9.34.67.2 9.87.74.7 8.66.94.5 4.38.25.7 -0.4-1.2s-0.2 Other Cocaine' 8th12th10th Grade Grade 2.03.11.71.3 2.42.61.51.6 2.42.61.81.7 3.02.12.4 3.43.02.82.7 3.83.32.9 3.53.93.62.7 3.74.43.93.2 3.84.64.03.1 3.53.93.73.1 3.33.73.13.0 -0.2-0.6s Heroin' 10th8th12th Grade Grade 1.27.03.8 5.33.01.21.4 1.31.45.43.3 2.05.23.81.5 2.35.14.41.7 2.12.46.45.5 2.18.26.1 2.38.46.4 2.38.86.8 2.27.76.01.9 7.45.01.7 -0.6s-0.2-0.3-1.1 With a needle" 12th10th8th Grade Grade 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.71.01.51.6 0.81.11.61.8 0.91.11.32.1 0.82.01.21.4 0.91.31.62.0 0.81.02.41.1 0.70.81.21.8 -0.1-0.2-0.6s0.0 Other NarcoticskWithout a needle" 8th12th10th Grade Grade - -- - - 1.41.11.5 1.71.6 2.11.71.4 1.61.71.5 1.81.61.4 2.41.71.3 1.51.31.1 -0.9ss-0.4s-0.2 Amphetaminesk 8th10th12th Grade Grade 13.210.5-6.6 13.110.8---6.1 14.911.8-6.4 15.112.3- 6.6 17.413.1- 7.2 17.713.5 -8.2 17.012.3- 9.7 16.011.3- 9.8 10.715.710.2- 15.710.6-9.9 16.010.2- 9.9 +0.3+0.3-0.8 - Methamphetamine'm8th12th10th Grade Grade 15.4- 13.9 - 15.1- 15.7- 15.3- 15.3- 16.5- 16.4- 16.3 8.27.34.5 15.6 7.96.94.2 16.2 6.96.44.4 +0.2+0.6-0.9-0.5 47 (Table continued on next page) - - 48 Trends in Lifetime 'Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders TABLE 1 (cont.) Ice' 10th8th Grade Grade 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Lifetime 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 change '00-'01 Barbiturates' 8th12th10th Grade Grade - 6.23.3 -5.52.9 - 6.33.1 - 7.03.4 -7.43.9 - 7.64.4 - 8.14.4 -8.75.3 - 8.94.8 -9.24.0 - 8.74.1 +0.1-0.5 - Tranquilizersb.' 8th12th10th Grade Grade - 7.25.83.8 -6.05.94.1 -4.46.45.7 - 6.65.44.6 -7.16.04.5 -5.37.27.1 - 7.87.34.8 -8.57.84.6 -9.37.94.4 -8.98.04.4 - 9.24.78.1 +0.4+0.1+0.3 - Rohypnol"' 8th Grade 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 +0.1 Alcohol° Any use 8th12th10th Grade Grade 70.1 69.3 67.1 1.21.5 1.71.8 3.02.0 2.01.8 1.51.3 1.71.5 +0.3+0.2 12th10th Grade 88.083.8 87.582.3 80.087.071.680.855.7 80.455.871.1- 80.770.554.5- 79.271.855.3 - 81.772.053.8 - 81.469.852.5- 80.070.652.1 - 80.351.771.4- - 79.770.150.5 -0.6-1.3-1.2 - Been Drunk' 8th12th10th Grade Grade 65.450.026.7 63.447.726.8 62.547.926.4 62.947.225.9 - 63.246.925.3- 61.848.526.8 - 64.249.425.2 - 62.446.724.8- 62.348.924.8 - 62.349.325.1 - - 63.948.223.4 +1.6-1.1-1.7 - CigarettesAny use Smokeless Tobacco"' 8th12th10th Grade Grade 22.263.155.144.0 20.761.853.545.2 18.761.956.345.3 62.056.946.119.9 20.064.257.646.4 20.463.561.249.2 65.460.247.316.8 15.065.357.745.7 14.464.657.644.1 62.555.140.512.8 11.761.052.836.6 -1.1-1.5-2.3s-3.9sss Steroids' 8th10th12th Grade Grade 28.2 - 1.81.9 32.426.6 1.7 31.028.1 1.71.6 30.729.2 1.82.0 30.927.6 2.0 29.827.4 1.8 25.326.3 2.01.8 26.222.7 2.02.3 23.420.4 2.7 23.119.1 3.53.0 19.719.5 3.52.8 +0.4-0.2-3.40.0 SOURCE:NOTES: The Monitoring the Future Study,12th Grade the University of Michigan. AnyforsLevel =apparent the.05, of two ss significance = inconsistencymost .01, recentsss =of .001. classesdifference between '-' indicatesis duethe between changeto roundingdata the estimate not two available.error. most and recent the prevalence classes: of use estimates 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.5 3.7 +1.2s Approximate Weighted Ns 1991 1992 Footnotes for Table 1 to Table 3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 'For 12th graders only: Use of "any illicit drug" includes any use of marijuana, LSD, other hallucinogens, crack, other cocaine, 12th10th8th Grade Grade 15,00014,80017,500 15.80014,80018,600 16,30015,30018,300 15,40015,80017,300 15,40017,00017,500 14,30015,60017,800 15,40015,50018,600 15,20015,00018,100 13,60016,700 1999 12,80014,30016,700 2000 or heroin, or any use of other12,80014,00016,200 2001 on"shrooms"bInanswers).hasnarcotics, all 2001been forms. excluded,the amphetanunes,was Thequestion added 2001 because to textestimates the barbiturates, list these of are examples.younger based or tranquilizerson respondents For the the unchanged tranquilizer notappear under forms tolist a overreport only; ofdoctor's examples, N is orders. one-halfuse Miltown (perhaps For of 8thN was becauseindicated. and replaced 10th they Thegraders: with include change Xanax. The thescore The given2000 datais the presented here was changed on half of the questionnaire forms for each grade. "Other psychedelics" was changed to "other hallucinogens" and use of other narcoticsuse ofand nonprescription barbiturates drugs in their difference between the are based °For'Inhalantsthree-sixthsTorunchanged 12th 12th graders gradersare forms of unadjusted N only:indicated. onlyonly: Datain Data bothfor based basedunderreporting 2000 on on and five one 2001. ofform; sixof Data amyl formsN is for one-sixthand in "any 1991-98; butyl illicit of nitrites; N Ndrugs indicated. is five-sixths hallucinogens other than of marijuana" N indicated. and Beginning "hallucinogens" in 1999, data based are unadjusted for underreporting of PCP. are also affected by these changes. on three of six forms; N is inasked'InTorto Tor changesall1995, 12th remainingfor8th gradersthe useand on heroinwith 10ththe 8th only: questionnaireinjection graders questionand Data 10th only:and basedwas grade withoutforms. Datachanged on forms. fourbased injection. inof on threesix one forms; Dataof form six presented Nformsin is 1996; four-sixths for hereN 12th is representone-half graders of N indicated. ofandthe N combined inindicated. data Beginning from all in forms. 1997, Indata 1996, based the heroin question one of two forms for 8th and 10th graders. Separate questions were on one-third of N indicated due was changed 'For"Tor'ForkOnly 12th 8th 12th druggraders and graders use 10th10th only:which graders gradersonly: Data was Data only:only: basednot based underDataData on on three based baseda twodoctor's of onofon six six oneone ordersforms; forms; ofof fourtwo is N Nincluded isforms;forms is three-sixths two-sixths inN here. 1995;is one-third of N N is indicated. indicated.one-half of N indicated. of N indicated. Data based on all forms beginning in 1996. groups.lineupper°Forthirds"For of8thall Beginninglineof data grades: andN for indicated.was 10th alcohol In based ingraders 1993, 1994, cameBeginning on the only:onedata from question of basedData informstwo 1999, based onformstext using all data wason formsfor theone basedchanged the original of for 8th twoon all and slightly twoforms wording,grades. 10th of infour in graders 1996; halfwhile forms; ofN andthe theis N one-halfdata onformsis one-thirdthree in theto of ofindicate lowerN six ofindicated. formsN line indicated.that came for a Data "drink" the from based 12th formsmeant using"more the than revised wording. graders.on three N ofis one-halffour forms of inN 1997-98;indicated N for is alltwo- a few sips." The data in the In 1993, each measured,rDailysixthsTor 12th8th of use and Ngraders and isindicated. 10th defined for only:graders 5+ asdrinks, Data use only: based on for Data twenty which on based two orthe ofmore onprevalence six one formsoccasions of two in of 2000; formshaving in the N for pastfiveis 1991-96two-sixths orthirty more daysand drinksof onNexcept indicated.two in a offor row four cigarettes Datain forms the based last beginningand two smokeless weeks in 1997;is measured.tobacco, N for which actual 51 on three of six forms beginning in 2001; N is three- is one-half of N indicated. 52 daily use is Trends in Annual and 30-Day Prevalence of Use if Various Drugs for Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders TABLE 2 Any Illicit Drug° 8th10th Grade Grade 199121.411.3 199220.412.9 199324.715.1 199430.018.5 199533.321.4 199637.523.6 Annual 199738.522.1 199835.021.0 199935.920.5 2000 36.4200119.5 37.219.5 '00-201dhange +0.8 0.0 122111.6 5.7 199211.0 6.8 199314.0 8.4 199418.510.9 199520.2 12.4122fi 1997 23.214.6 30-Dey 23.012.9 199821.512.1 199922.112.2 200022.511.9 200122.711.7 '00-'01haaga+0.2-0.2 Any Illicit DrugThan Other Marijuana° 10th8th12th Grade Grade Grade 29.412.2 8.4 12.327.1 9.3 13.910.431.0 15.211.335.8 39.017.512.6 40.218.413.1 18.211.842.4 41.416.611.0 16.710.542.1 16.710.240.9 41.416.8 9.9 +0.1+0.6-0.2 16.4 5.53.8 14.4 5.74.7 18.3 6.55.3 21.9 7.15.6 23.8 24.68.96.5 8.96.9 26.2 8.86.0 25.6 8.65.5 25.9 8.65.5 24.9 8.55.6 25.7 8.76.5 +0.2+0.8-0.1 Any Illicit DrugIncluding Inhalante` 10th8th12th Grade Grade 23.916.716.2 23.518.214.9 27.421.117.1 32.524.218.0 35.627.119.4 39.628.719.8 40.327.220.7 37.126.220.2 37.725.320.7 38.024.020.4 38.723.919.8 +0.7-0.1-0.6 13.1 8.87.1 12.610.0 6.3 15.512.0 7.9 20.014.3 8.8 21.616.110.0 24.5 17.5 9.5 24.116.010.7 22.514.910.7 23.115.110.4 23.614.410.4 23.614.010.8 +0.1+0.4-0.4 InhalantedMarijuana/Hashish 8th12th10th Grade Grade 23.916.531.2 6.2 21.915.228.8 7.2 26.032.519.2 9.2 30.725.213.037.6 34.728.740.215.8 35.833.618.341.9 38.534.843.317.7 37.531.116.942.4 37.832.142.816.5 36.532.242.515.6 37.032.715.442.6 +0.5+0.1-0.1 13.817.8 8.73.2 11.915.5 8.13.7 15.510.919.3 5.1 23.019.015.8 7.8 21.217.224.8 25.59.1 21.920.411.3 23.720.526.910.2 22.818.726.6 9.7 23.126.419.4 9.7 21.626.419.7 9.1 22.419.826.5 9.2 +0.8+0.1 0.0 Nitrites° 10th8th12th10th Grade Grade Grade 6.67.19.0 6.27.59.5 11.0 7.08.4 11.7 7.79.1 12.8 8.09.6 12.2 7.69.5 11.8 6.78.7 11.1 6.28.0 10.3 5.67.2 5.97.39.4 4.56.69.1 -1.4s-0.7-0.3 2.42.74.4 2.32.74.7 2.53.35.4 2.73.65.6 3.23.56.1 2.53.35.8 2.53.05.6 2.32.94.8 2.02.65.0 2.22.64.5 1.72.44.0 -0.5-0.1 Hallucinogens" 12th10th8th Grade Grade -5.84.00.91.9 - 5.94.32.50.5 -7.44.72.60.9 -5.82.77.61.1 -9.37.23.61.1 10.1- 7.84.11.6 - 9.87.63.71.2 -9.06.93.41.4 - 9.46.92.90.9 -8.16.12.80.6 - 8.45.22.50.6 +0.2-0.9-0.4 -0.0 2.21.60.80.4 2.10.31.81.1 2.71.91.20.6 3.12.40.41.3 4.43.30.41.7 3.52.81.90.7 3.93.30.71.8 3.83.21.41.0 3.52.91.30.4 2.62.30.31.2 3.22.11.20.5 +0.6+0.2-0.2 0.0 LSD 8th Grade 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 -0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 HallucinogensOther Than8th LSD'12th10th Grade Grade 0.75.23.7 1.15.64.0 1.06.84.2 6.95.21.3 1.78.46.5 2.08.86.9 1.88.46.7 7.65.91.6 8.11.56.0 6.65.11.4 6.64.11.1 -0.3-1.0s 0.0 0.31.91.5 0.42.01.6 0.52.41.6 0.72.62.0 0.84.03.0 0.92.52.4 0.73.12.8 0.73.22.7 0.62.72.3 0.61.6 0.62.31.5 +0.7s-0.20.0 53 12th10th Grade 2.01.3 1.71.4 2.21.9 3.12.4 3.82.8 4.43.3 4.63.3 4.63.4 (Table continued on next page) 4.33.2 4.43.1 4.42.8 -0.4 0.0 0.70.4 0.5 0.80.7 1.21.0 1.31.0 1.61.0 1.71.2 1.61.4 1.61.2 1.71.2 1.81.1 +0.1-0.2 54 TABLE 2 (cont.) Trends in Annual and 30-IDay Prevalence of Use of Various for Eighth, Tenth, and AmmualTwelfth Graders W-201 Drugs 30-D:y '00-201 PCP° 8th12th10th Grade Grade 1991 1.4 1992 1.4 1993 1.4 1994 1.6 1995 1.8 1996 2.6 1997 2.3 1998 2.1 1999 1.8 2000 2.3 001 change1.8 -0.5 1991 0.5 1992 0.6 1993 1.0 1994 0.7 1995 0.6 1996 1.3 1997 0.7 1998 1.0 1999 2000 24.01 change Cocaine MDMA (Ecstasy)8th12th10th Grade Grade ------4.62.3 -4.03.92.3 - 3.63.31.8 -5.64.41.7 -8.25.43.1 -9.26.23.5 +1.0+0.8+0.5 ------2.01.81.0 - 1.61.31.0 -0.91.51.3 -2.51.80.8 -3.62.60.9 -1.4 2.82.61.80.5 +0.4 -0.9-0.4 0.0 - 8th Grade - 1.1 - 1.5 - 1.7 - 2.1 -2.6 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.6 -0.1 - 0.5 -0.7 0.7 - 1.0 -1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 -0.1 Crack 10th8th12th Grade Grade 0.90.73.52.2 -0.93.11.9 -3.32.11.11.0 1.41.33.62.8 -1.81.64.03.5 2.14.94.21.8 2.21.75.54.7 2.52.15.74.7 2.44.91.86.2 2.25.04.41.8 1.81.7 -0.1-0.8 -0.31.40.7 -0.51.30.7 -0.40.91.3 -0.71.51.2 -0.71.81.7 0.82.01.7 0.72.32.0 0.92.42.1 0.82.61.8 0.82.11.8 0.82.11.3 -0.1-0.40.0 Other Cocaineg 8th12th10th Grade Grade 3.22.11.01.5 2.61.71.21.5 1.81.31.5 2.41.71.9 3.43.02.12.1 3.52.52.1 4.12.22.4 4.02.42.5 4.42.32.7 3.81.92.2 3.01.92.1 -0.8s-0.40.0 0.60.50.70.3 0.60.50.4 0.70.60.5 0.90.80.61.0 1.41.00.9 1.31.00.81.0 0.80.91.6 1.81.01.1 1.61.10.81.1 0.91.61.00.9 0.91.21.10.7 +0.1 +0.1 -0.4-0.2 Heroinh With a needle" 12th10th8th Grade Grade 0.40.50.7 0.60.7 0.50.72.9 0.60.93.01.2 1.11.4 1.01.21.64.2 5.01.21.41.3 1.01.41.34.9 1.11.45.8 4.51.51.41.1 0.90.91.04.4 -0.6sss -0.488-0.1 0.20.31.2 0.30.20.41.0 0.20.30.41.2 0.30.40.61.3 0.61.3 0.50.50.71.6 0.50.62.0 0.50.70.62.0 0.50.70.62.5 0.70.51.7 0.40.30.61.8 +0.1-0.388 +0.1 -0.2 Without a needle" 12th10th8th Grade Grade - - - 0.80.50.60.9 0.50.71.0 0.50.70.8 0.40.8 0.40.60.9 0.40.50.6 0.30.40.7 +0.1 -0.1 - - 0.30.4 0.40.30.5 0.30.4 0.20.40.5 0.20.30.4 0.20.3 0.20.4 -0.1 0.0 Other Narcoticsk 8th10th12th Grade Grade ------1.00.8 0.91.0 1.21.10.8 0.81.0 1.01.10.9 1.61.10.7 0.80.70.6 -0.8sss-0.4ss-0.1 ------0.60.30.3 0.40.3 0.60.4 0.40.50.3 0.40.5 0.70.40.3 0.30.20.4 +0.1 -0.3s-0.2s Amphetaminesk 12th10th8th12th Grade Grade Grade -8.26.23.5 -7.18.26.53.3 -8.49.67.23.6 10.2 -9.47.93.8 11.9 -9.38.74.7 12.4-9.59.15.4 10.212.1 -8.16.2 10.110.7-7.26.3 10.210.4- 6.96.7 10.511.1 -6.57.0 10.911.7 +0.4+0.6-6.76.7 +0.1 -0.2 - --3.23.32.61.1 -2.83.63.31.2 -3.74.33.61.3 -4.04.53.61.5 -4.05.34.21.8 -4.15.54.62.0 4.85.13.82.3 -4.65.13.32.4 -4.55.03.42.6 -5.05.4 -3.42.9 5.63.23.0 +0.2 -0.3 0.0 - 55 (Table continued on next page) 565.6 +0.6 Treinid jni Annuall and 30-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs TABLE 2 (cont.) for Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Gradersn_ 30-Day '00-'01 Methamphetamine4'8th12th10th Grade Grade 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 J 22 .lip ,9. 1998 1999 4.74.63.2 IPLQ3 4.34.02.5 2001 3.93.72.8 gra /I' og +0.2-0.4-0.3 el 1991 199g 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.71.81.1 2000 2001 change2.00.81.9 1.51.3 +0.4s-0.4-0.5 Barbiturates' Ice 12th10th8th Grade Grade - 1.4 - 1.3 - 1.7 - 1.8 - 2.4 -- -2.8 - 2.3 -3.0 1.9 2.2 -2.5 +0.3 - - 0.6 -0.5 -0.6 --0.7 - 1.1 - 1.1 - 0.8 - 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 +0.1 12th10th8th Grade Grade -3.4 -2.8 -3.4 -4.1 -4.7 - -4.9 5.1 - -5.5 5.8 - 6.2 -5.7 -0.5- - 1.4 - 1.1 - 1.3 - 1.7 -2.2 -2.1 - 2.1 -2.6 - 2.6 -- -3.0 - 2.8 - -0.2 Tranquilizere* 12th10th8th Grade Grade -3.63.21.8 - 2.83.52.0 -3.53.32.1 - 3.73.32.4 -4.44.02.7 -4.6 -3.3 4.74.92.9 - -5.55.12.6 5.85.42.5 -5.75.62.6 6.5-5.93.0 +0.8+0.3+0.4 - -0.81.41.2 - 1.01.50.8 -0.91.21.1 - 1.41.51.1 - 1.81.71.2 -2.01.71.5 -2.21.81.2 -2.42.21.2 -2.52.21.1 - -2.62.51.4 3.02.91.6 +0.4+0.3-+0.2 Rohypnor." 8th Grade 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 +0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 +0.1 GH1314 8th10th12th Grade Grade - - - - - 1.1 1.21.3 1.41.2 1.0 0.81.11.2 0.91.01.1 +0.2-0.2-0.1 - - - - - 0.5 0.30.5 0.30.4 0.30.5 0.4 0.30.2 -0.1-0.2 Ketamine"' 12th8th10th12th Grade Grade Grade ------2.52.11.61.9 2.52.11.31.6 -0.3-0.20.0 ------Alcohol° ------Any use 8th Grade 54.0 - 53.7- 45.451.6 - 46.8 - 45.3 - 46.5 45.5 43.7 - - 43.5 43.1 41.9 -1.2 25.1 - 26.1- 24.326.2 - 25.5 - 24.6- 26.2 - 24.5 - 23.0 - 24.0 - 22.4 21.5 - -0.9- 10th Grade 72.3 70.2 69.3 - - - - 42.8 39.9 41.5 - - 63.4 63.9 63.5 65.0 - - 65.2 62.7 - - 63.7 65.3 63.5 -1.8 38.2 39.2 38.8 40.4 40.1 38.8 40.0 41.0 - - 39.0 -2.0 12th Grade 77.7 76.8 72.776.0 73.0 - 73.7 - 72.5 74.8- - 74.3 73.8- - 73.2 - 73.3 - +0.1 - 54.0 51.3 48.651.0 50.1 - 51.3 - 50.8-- 52.7 - 52.0-- 51.0 - 50.0 49.8- - -0.3- Been Drunk' 8th10th Grade Grade 40.117.5 37.018.3 37.818.2 38.018.2- 38.518.4- 40.119.8- - 40.718.4 38.317.9 - - 40.918.5 41.618.5- 39.916.6- -1.7-1.9s - 20.5 7.6 18.1 7.5 19.8 7.8 20.3 -8.7 20.8 - 8.3 21.3- 9.6 22.4 -8.2 21.1 - 8.4 22.5 -9.4 -8.3 - 7.7 -1.6-0.7- 57 12th Grade 52.7 50.3 49.6 51.7 52.5 51.9 - - 53.2 52.0 - - (Table continued on next page)53.2 51.8 53.2 +1.4 31.6 29.9 28.9 30.8 33.2 31.3 34.2 32.9 32.9 32.323.5 21.9- - 58 32.7 +0.4 TABLE 2 (cont.) Trends in Annual and 30-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for Eighth, Tenth, and TwelfthAnnual Graders 30-Day CigarettesAny use 8th10th Grade Grade 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 change '00-'01 199120.814.3 199221.515.5 199324.716.7 199425.418.6 199527.919.1 199630.421.0 199729.819.4 199827.619.1 1999 25.717.52000 23.914.6 MU 21.312.2 change'00-'01-2.6ss-2.5sss Bidis4" 8th12th10th Grade Grade ------9.26.43.9 - 7.04.92.7 -2.2-1.5s-1.3ss - 28.3 27.8 29.9 31.2 33.5 34.0 36.5 35.1 34.6 31.4 29.5 -2.0 Smokeless Tobacco" 8th12th10th Grade Grade ------10.0- 6.9 11.4-9.67.0 10.710.4- 6.6 11.110.5-7.7 12.2- 9.77.1 - 9.88.67.1 -9.78.95.5 -8.84.87.5 - -8.46.54.5 -7.66.14.2 -4.07.86.9 +0.2+0.8-0.2 - NOTES:Steroids' 8th12th10th Grade Grade Level of significance of difference between the two most recent classes: s = .05, ss = .01, sss =. 001. - 1.41.11.0 - 1.1 -0.91.21.0 - 1.31.11.2 - 1.51.21.0 -0.91.41.2 - 1.41.21.0 -- 1.71.2 - 1.81.7 - -2.21.7 2.42.11.6 +0.7s-0.1 0.0 - - 0.80.60.4 0.60.5 0.70.5 0.90.60.5 0.70.6 0.70.50.4 0.70.51.0 0.60.51.1 0.90.7 0.81.0 0.90.71.3 +0.5s-0.1 0.0 SOURCE: The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. AnySee Table apparent 1 for inconsistency relevant footnotes. betweenindicates the change data estimate not available. and the prevalence of use estimates for the two most recent classes is due to rounding error. 59 60 Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Drugs for Eighth, Tenth, and Twelfth Graders TABLE 3 Daily '00-'01 Marijuana/Hashish, daily 12th10th8th Grade Grade 1991 2.00.80.2 19,91 0.80.21.9 1993 2.40.41.0 1994 3.62.20.7 1995 4.62.80.8 1996 1997 4.93.51.5 5.83.71.1 1998 1999 5.63.61.1 6.03.81.4 MU 6.03.81.3 2001 5.84.51.3 +0.7schange-0.2 0.0 Alcohol"Any daily use 10th8th Grade Grade 1.30.5 0.61.2 0.81.61.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 +0.1 Been Drunk, dailymJ 8th12th Grade Grade 0.13.6 0.13.4 0.23.42.51.8 - 0.32.91.7 -0.23.51.7 -0.23.71.6 - 0.23.91.7 -0.33.91.9 - 0.43.41.9 - 0.32.91.8 -0.23.61.9 +0.7ss +0.1 0.0 - 5+ drinks inin a last row 2 weeks8th12th10th Grade Grade 12.9 0.90.2 13.4 0.80.3 13.5 0.90.4 14.5- 1.20.4 14.5- 0.61.3 15.6-0.41.6 14.5- 2.00.6 13.7 -0.61.5 15.2-0.71.9 14.1- 1.70.5 13.2 -0.61.4 +0.1-0.9-0.3 - CigarettesAny daily use 8th12th10th Grade Grade 29.822.9 7.2 27.921.1 7.0 27.523.0 8.3 28.223.6 8.8 29.824.0 9.3 10.430.224.8 31.325.1 9.0 31.524.3 8.8 30.825.6 8.1 30.026.2 7.4 29.724.9 5.5 -1.9sss-0.3-1.3 112 pack+/day 10th8th12th10th Grade Grade Grade 18.512.6 6.53.1 17.212.3 6.02.9 19.014.2 7.03.5 19.414.6 7.63.6 21.616.3 8.33.4 22.218.3 9.44.3 24.618.0 8.63.5 22.415.8 7.93.6 23.115.9 7.63.3 20.614.0 6.22.8 19.012.2 5.52.3 -0.6-0.4-1.6-1.8s Smokeless Tobacco, daily" 12th8th10th Grade Grade Grade 10.7 3.31.6 10.0 4.33.01.8 10.9 3.31.5 11.2 3.93.01.9 12.4 3.62.71.2 13.0 3.32.21.5 14.3 4.42.21.0 12.6 3.22.21.0 13.2 2.90.91.5 11.3 3.20.91.9 10.3 2.82.21.2 +0.4+0.3-0.4-1.0 61 SOURCE:NOTES: The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. forAnySeesLevel the =apparent Tabletwo of significancemost 1 inconsistency for recent relevant classesof differencefootnotes. between is due the between toindicates changerounding the estimatedata twoerror. not most andavailable. recent the prevalence classes: ofss use = .01,estimates sss =. 001. 62 Trends fin IERairmfulness of IDrugs as Perceived by Eighth and Tenth Graders, TABLE 4 14111 11-2001 harmingHow much themselves do you think (physically people riskor in . . 8th Grade Percentage saying "great risk' '00-'01 10th Grade Tryother marijuana ways), if theyonce . or twice - 40.419911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 39.1 36.2 31.6 28.9 27.9 25.3 28.1 28.0 29.0 27.7 change4.3 30.01991199219931994199519961997199819992000.M 31.9 29.7 24.4 2L5 20.0 18.8 19.6 19.2 118.5 17.9 cro an'gel TakeTryTrySmoke inhalants LSD inhalants marijuana once regularly" or.once twice. occasionally regularlyor twice° 65.635.983.857.9 56.3 53S 48.6 45.9 44.3 43.1 45.0 45.7 47.464.437.082.0 46.3- 4.2 64.636.5796 38.365.537.974.3.73.0 36.764.836.4 36.568.240.870.9 37.040.168.772.7 34.967.238.973.0 34.168.840.873.3 34.069.941.2 31.671.645.672.2 +1.6+4.5sss-2.5se 37.8 . .82.18L11 69.8486 48.9 46.1 38.935A 32S 31.9 32.5 67.938.7 69.640.978.5171.3 46.A44.7.71.542.7 71.841.667.9659 45.175.847.2 44.5:74.547.565.9.658 43.5-73.345.8 76.348.2 45:0 75.046.643A 41.3 65.933.5 647 32A :62.8 :31.276.449.9 +3.3ss +1.4:4.9.-1.6 TakeTry MDMA MDMALSD regularly' (Ecstasy) (Ecstasy) once occasionally° or twice° - 68.342.1 65.8 644 63A 64.1 59A 58.8 57.5 55.535.852.9 : --,- 48.7 .78.9 75.9 75.5 75.3 . . 73.8. 72.3: 73S :72A 64.839.468.8. 4.2s TakeTry cocainecrack crackcocaine once occasionally!' powder powder or twice° once occasionally° :or twice° 77.055.582.262.8 74.354.179.661.2 71.850.776.857.2 69.148.474.454.4 66.444.972.150.8 65.745.271.651.0 65.845.07L249.9 70.649.3 65.244.0 65.443.370.648.7 65.543.370.148.5 65.843.948.670.0 . -0.1+0.4+0.6+0.2 82.259.1871470.4 80.159.286.484.469.6 79.157.5666 77.856.483.164.7 75.653.581.260.9609" 80.3-78.7 53.675.0 73952.259.2. 71.850.9771558.0. 73.651.6179.i761977.357S 70.948.856.1 50.672.357.1 +1.5+1.7+1.0'; . TryTakeTr3i oneheroin heroin orwithout twoonCe occasionally drinks or usingtwiee of ana needle' alcoholic - 76S 766 79.2 79A 78.9 78.6 78A ".-0.160.1 61A. 63-.0 .62S sp.0.62.9-s1.1]-: -0. 70.7.'12:1 73:1 71.7 73.7 71.7 72.040. AAA 84.9, 86.5 85.2-85A40.2 SmokeHaveTake onefive one.or ororoncenearly twobeveragemore more or drinksevery twicedrinks packs (beer, day each of wine,weekend liquor) 59.131.811.0 58.032.412.1 57.732.612.4 54.729.911.6 54.130.511.6 51.828.611.8 55.629.110.4 56.030.312.1 55.329.711.6 55.930.411.9 56.130.012.2 +0.2+0.4-0.4 54.736.1 9.0 55.936.810.1 54.935.910.9 52.932.5 9.4 52.031.7 9.3 50.931.2 8.9 51.831.8 9.0 52.531.910.1 51.932.910.5 51.032.3 9.6 50.731.5 9.8 +0.2-0.3-0.8 Use smokelesscigarettes tobacco per regularly day° 35.1516 35.1508 36.952.7 35.5508 33.5498 34.0504 35.252.6 36.554.3 37.154.8 58S 57.1 39.0 38.2 -0.7-17 40.360.3 39.659.3 44.26011.159.0 42.2 38.2570-67.9 * 41.0 59 42.29 42.8619 44.262.7 46.765..9 .64.7"-46.2 -0.5 TakeSOURCE:NOTES: steroidsr- The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. Approx. N (in thousands)AnyLevel apparent of significance = inconsistency of difference between between the change the two estimate most recent and the classes: prevalence s = .05, of ss use = .01,estimates sss = .001.for the two most recent classes is due to rounding error. 17.464.2 18.769.5 18.470.2 17.467.6 17.5 - 17.9 - 18.8 - 18.1 16.7 16.7 16.2 67114.7 14.872;1 15.373.4 indicates data not available. 15.972.5 17.0 15.7 15.6 15.0 13.6 14.3 14.0 'Data°Beginning"Data°Answer basedbased based alternatives ononin on 1999,1997,onetwo one-third offorms data twowere: ofbasedformsin (1)N1991 indicatedNo onin and 1993-96;risk,two-thirds 1992. (2)due Slight N Datato ofis changes one-halfN basedrisk, indicated (3) onin of questionnaireModerateone N due indicated. of to two changes risk, forms Beginningforms. (4) in Great questionnaire1993 in risk, and 1997, and1994; data (5)forms. N basedCan't is one-half on one-third of N of N indicated say, drug unfamiliar. indicated. due to changes in questionnaire forms. Long-Term 'Irreirade Eilalimfulhiness of Drugs as Perceived by Twe lifth Graders TAISTUE 5 Percentage saying "great risk"' themselvesHow much (physicallydo you think or peoplein other risk ways), harming if they . . . nu Dili 1977 1978 9.5 8.1 1979 9.4 198010.0 12th Grade198113.0 1212.11.5 198312.7 198414.7 198514.8 198615.1 198718.4 193.819.0 TakeTrySmoke LSDmarijuana LSD marijuana once regularly oronce twice occasionallyregularly or twice 81.449.443.318.115.1 80.845.738.6 11.415.0 79.143.236.4 13.4 81.142.734.9 12.4 82.441.642.013.5 83.043.950.414.7 83.545.557.619.1 83.544.960.418.3 44.762.883.220.6 45.483.866.922.6 82.943.570.424.5 82.642.071.325.0 83.844.973.530.4 58.884.245.777.031.7 TakeTry MDMAcocainePCP cocaine once once occasionally regularlyor twiceor twice 42.6 39.1 35.6 332 69-.531.5 69.231.3 71232.1 73.0328 74333.0 .35.778.8 34.0790 82.233.5 - 55.6 .88.566.847.9 89.269.251.2 TakeTry cocainecrack cocainecrack once occasionally regularlypowder powder or twice once occasionally or twice 73.1 72.3- 68.2- 682. - 542 - 45.384.670.457.0 61.961.784.873.262.1 TakeTry heroin heroincocaine once occasionallyregularly powder or twice regularly without without using using a a needle needle 87.275.660.1 88.675.658.9 86.171.955.8 86.671.452.9 87.570.950.4 86.270.952.1 87.572.252.9 86.069.851.1 86.171.850.8 87.270.749.8 - - 86.069.847.3 87.168.245.8 - 81.456.8 88.774.653.6 88.873.854.0829. TeTryTake barbituratescrystalamphetaminesbarbiturates amphetamines meth. once(ice)regularly once regularly oronce ortwice twiceor twice 69.134.869.035.4 67.732.5 68.631.2 67.333.4 66.630.8 68.431.367.129.9 - 71.630.769.929.7 - 72.230.969.129.7 - 69.928.466.1264 - 67.627.564.725.3 - 67.727.064.824.7 - 68.527.467.1254 - 68.326.167.2252 25.167.267.325.4- - 69.430.969.429.1 - 69.629.769.829.6 HaveTakeTry one fouronefive or or ortwo twomore(beer,five drinks drinks drinks drinks wine, of nearly nearly anliquor)once alcoholic orevery every twice day beverageday each weekend 37.863.521.5 37.061.021.25.3 34.762.918.5 34.563.119.6 4.8 4.1 3.4 63.034.966.222.6 4.1 63.735.965.720.3 3.8 63.336.364.521.6 4.6 60.536.065.521.6 3.5 38.666.821.6 4.2 41.768.423.0 4.6 43.069.824.4 39.166.525.15.0 4.6 41.969.726.2 6.2 68.042.668.527.3 6.0 Smoke one or more packs of cigarettes per day . 612 638 686 °AnswerTakeUse smokeless iteroids- alternatives tobacco were: regularly (1) No risk, (2) Slight risk, (3) Moderate risk, (4) Great risk, and (5) Can't say, drug unfamiliar. Approx. N = 2804 2918 3052 3770 . . 51.3 56.4. 584 590 . . 3250 3234 3604... 3557 . 3305 . 3262 - 3250 6653020 660- 25.8 331530.0 327633.2 65 (Table continued on next page) _ _ 66 Long-Term Trends in EI:u um I r,e ss ofT Drugs as Perceived by Twelifth Graders LE 5 (co t.) themselvesHow much (physicallydo you think or peoplein other risk ways), harming if they . . . 1989 1990 1991 1992 Percentage1 9_9,1saying "great risk"' 19.9A 12th Grade 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 change '00-'01 TakeTrySmokeTty marijuanaLSD LSD marijuana once regularly oronce twice regillarlYoccasionally Or tivice - - 36.5 84.346.077.5236 . 36.9 84.544.7778231 84.346.678.640.627.1 81.842.376.539.624.5 79.439.571535.6,_219 19.579.138.865.030.1 .. 36.460.825.678.116.3 . 25.915.636.259.977.8 58.124.776.634.714.9 '24.458.5 16.776.537.4 57.423976.134.915.7 34.358.323.475.913.7: 33.257.423.5 74.1 15.3' +L6 . :-0.9+0.1-1.7-1.1 Try MDMAPCP once once or twiceor twice 56.6 55.2 51.7 54.8 50.8 51.5 49.1 51.0 48.8' 46.8. . 35.044.8 . . .-45.0 46.2 . +7.7888+1.3. TakeTry cocaine cocaine once occasionallyregularly or twice 90.271S54.9 91.173.959.4 90.475.559.4 90.275.156.8 90.173.357.6 89.373357.2 &TS:70.863.7.. :88.3,':87.1: :86,3 64272: - 33.8 34.5 .;536 :. 72,4' 70.1 85:8170.1 : 69.537.9 -169.9 45.7 ::704+0.4 - TakeTry cocainecrack crackcocaine once occasionally regularlypowder powder or twice once occasionally. or twice 65.853885.675.362.9 71.153991.680.464.3 69.853.690.176.560.6 70.857.189.376.362.4 68.653287.573.957.6 70.655489.673.858.4 69.152.088.672.854.6 68.853.288.071.456.0 67.751.486.270.354.0 85.368.765.448.552.2 64.246.185.467.348.2 64.747S85.365.848.4 I49O631285.865.449.4 +2.0+0.4+1.0-1.5-0.4 TryTake heroin heroincocaine once occasionallyregularly powder or twice regularly without using a needle 89.575.553.883.9 90.276.655.4 89.674.955.288.9 89.274.250.988.4 88.372.050.787.0 88.072.152.888.6 87.271.050.987.8 58.689.574.852.586.8 60.588.976.356.786.0 89.159.676.957.884.1 58.589.977.356.084.6 61.689.274.654.285.5 60.788.375.955.684.4 +1.4+1.3-0.9-1.1 TryTake crystalamphetamines heroinamphetamines meth. occasionally (ice) once regularly once or without twice or twice using a needle 32871.2 - 71.2322 - 74.136.3 - 61.972.4326 - 57.569.93L3 - 58.367.031.4 - 71.255.6 54.465.928.8 55.366.830.871.0 66.0:31.074.3 36.373.467.7 51.266432.2:73.6 .32.6:66.374.7 34.7 67.174.4 +1.44-0.8:+2.0:-0.4 : TryTake onebarbiturates barbiturates or(beer, two drinks wine,once regularly oforliquor) antwice alcoholic beverage 32 70.52 -6.0 70.232A. - 61.68.3 70.535.1 -9.1 70.232.2 -_8.6 66.129S.-8.2 :29..9-:63.3 7.6 61.626.3 5.9 60429.1 7.3 .26.9 56854.429.0 : 52.7.56.36.7 8.0 54.126.1 8.3 ..250 - 25 52.351.37 +0.7 6250 . 736.4 "8.7 +2.3s72.0 . Take fourone oror twofive drinks drinks nearly nearly every every day day 69.828.5 31.370.9 69.532.7 70.530.6 67.828.2 66.227.0 62.824.8 65.625.1 24.8 24.3 61.121.8 59.921.7 60.723.4 +0.8+1.7 TakeUseSmokeHave smokeless steroidsfive one or or more more tobacco drinks packs regularly once of cigarettes or twice pereach day weekend 63.832.967.244.0 69.934.268.247.1 65.637.469.448.6 70.735.569.249.0 69.138.969.548.3 66.136.667.646.5 66.433.265.645.2 67.637.468.249.5 67.238.668.743.063.0 68.140.970.842.862.1 62.141.170.843.1 57.942.273.142.7 73.358.945.4 43.6 +1.0+3.3+012+0.8 SOURCE:NOTES: The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. roundingAnyLevel apparent of significance error. inconsistency of difference between between the change the two estimate most recent and theclasses: prevalence s = .05, of ss use = .01, estimates sss = .0 67 Approx. N = 2796 2553 2549 2684 2759 2591 2603 2449 for the01. two2579 most 2564 recent classes is due to indicates data not available. 2306 2130 2173 68 Trends in Disapproval of Drug Use by Eighth and Tenth Graders, 1991-2001 TABLE 6 Do you disapprove of people . . 8th Grade Percentage who "disapprove" or "strongly disapprove' '00-'01 10th Grade '00-'01 TrySmoke&takeTrywho inhalants Marijuana. Marijuana marijuana once onCeer or occasionallyregUlarly twice' twice . :84.0.0.184.992.189.51.2E. .88.1 1992199319941995 79.2 729 70.7. 84.090.8-88.9 82.585.7: 81.685.380.9 81.885179.7. :82.882.976.567.5199619971998199920002001 67.6:69.0 70.7 72.5 72.4 :781 78.4:84.184.6.84.5 83.0 85.284.579.3 85.485.380.6 .84.5.80.686.6 rIsAge 19911992199319941995199919971998199920002001,+1.3-0.8-OA): :74A-0.3 74.8 79.3 62.4 '59.8 .55.5.54:1 56:0 .56:2 :54.3:54.8 85.290:4.83.7. 85.690.083:6 .79.4.12.384.887.4 84.982.2 :81184.570.0' 86.079.766.9 79.766.286.9 85.680.1'67:3 88.479:8682 87.579.167.2:662.:.:4.0::: 78.087.8 . change +0.3 TryTake LSD inhalants once or regularly' twice : 90.6 90.0 88.9 75:288.1 71.988.8 70972169169466764689.3 90.3 89.5 90.3 90.2 90.5 - +0.3 21 . 91.0 91.5 ---L;e: 86.8 85.6. 90.9 91.0 -17.690.9 -76.1-311,6.6.91.7 91.7 91.1767 84.3.77.892.4 /1.6.-1514:91.8 91.3 -0.4 TakeTry MDMA MDMALSD regularly` (Ecstasy) (Ecstasy) once occasionally' or twice' 798 78.4 758 753 76.3 72.5- 725 69.3' 67S 73.669.0 - 41406 84.8 84.5 83:4.829: 82.1 80S 81.072.6 TakeTry cocaine cocaine powder powder once occasionally' or twice" Crack Oneetilt& oCeasionafle tWi y" ". ir: 93.191.293.391.7 92.489.692.590.7- 91.688.591.789.1 89.786.189.986.9 89.785.389.885.9 88.783.989.385.0 90.185.190.385.7 89.384.589.585A 86.0 89.985.2 88.884.885.4 89.685.689.886.0 +0.84-0.9+0.6 94.090.894.392.5 - 94.091.194.492.5 9L4 89S 93.290.093.6 92.188.192.5 .88.7.88.2.87A91.486.891.7 91.9 9L0 91.186.1 85.190.4 89.784.990.687.1. 90.786.091-.587.8. :909 -90.689.984.8871 90.285.386S .. -0.2- +0:3+0.5 - TakeTrY :herein heroinwithout OnCe occasionally. or Using i*ice a needle' , 850 8.7.7 87.3 88.0 87.2 9.7 09.5 89.1 88.6 9.0. 00.1 iisa TakeTry one one or or twoeverybeverageWithout two drinks drinks day using (beer, nearly of ana wine, needle': alcoholic liquor) 82.251.7 81.052.2 79.650.9 76.747.8 75.948.0 - 88.5 74.145.587.7 :99.176.645.7 76.947.589.7. 77.048.3 99.2 77.848.788.9 77.449.888.9 +1.1-0.4-o.I 81.737.6 81.739.9 78.638.5 75.236.5 75.436.1e1.6 73.834.231.7 75.433.7 914 665 91.iJ 9/3 90S 74.634.7 75.435.1 73.833.4 73.834.7 +1.3 0.0 UseSmokeHave smokeless five one orcigarettes or tobaccomoretwice mote drinkseach packa.of perregularly weekend day'once 79.182.885.2 77.282.383.9 77.180.683.3 75.178.480.7 74.078.680.7 74.177.379.1 '76.581.380.3 81.080.076.3 80.378.0814 81.981.279.2 83.581.679.4 +0.2+16+0.3 75.479476.7 77.874.677.6 73.876574.7 71.273972.3 71.073272.2 71.070.7716 72.370.2738 75.373.270.5 75.176.169.9 75.876.768.2 76.178269.2 +0.3+1.5+1.0 SOURCE:NOTES:Take sterOidsr:. The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. Approx. N (in thousands)AnyLevel = apparent of significance inconsistency of difference between between the change the two estimate most recentand the classes: prevalence s = .05, of use ss =estimates .01, sss =for .001. the two'-' indicates most recent data classesnot available. is due to rounding error. 17.489.8 18.590.3 18.489.9 17.487.9 17.6 -- 18.0 18.8 18.1 16.7 16.7 16.2 90.014.8 9L0 14.8 91.2 15.3 15.990.8 17.0 15.7 15.6- - - 15.0 - 13.6 14.3 14.0 69 fDataeBegirming'Data'Beginning'Answer basedbasedbased alternatives inononin 1997, one1999,one-thirdtwo of forms data were:datatwo ofbased formsbasedin (1)N 1991 indicatedDon't oninon and1993-96; two-thirdstwo-thirds disapprove, 1992 due andNto of of ischanges on N one-halfN(2) indicatedoneindicated Disapprove, ofin of twoquestionnaire N duedue formsindicated. to toand changeschanges in (3) 1993 forms.Beginning Strongly inanoi1994; questionnaire disapprove,in 1997, N is one-halfdata forms. and based (4) of onCan'tN indicated.one-third say, drug of Nunfamiliar. indicated due to changes in questionnaire forms. 70 Do you disapprove of people (who are 18 or older) Long-Term Trends in Disapprove a Drug Use by Twelfth Graders Percentage ``disapprovine 12th Grade TrYdoingSreokeSmoke: MarijUilie each merkinani. niaiiiiiine.regiilarlY of the Onee following?" OCCasiOnallY: - 71.954484701975 ..38.4 69.5197647.8 65.54431977 334 43.5:: 67.51978334 34.269.245.31979 /4.649.73901980 .77.4:1981526.:.59.1'.60.7400 :45.58061982 :82.5198346.3' :49.3.198484.7635 198585M658514 ...690 198686.6-54.6 .11689.219875616 .. 198889374.0.60.8 Try LSD once or twice ...... 87.3 86.4 88.8 89.1 88.9 89.5 89.2 91.6 89.8 . 82.8 84.6 83.9 85.4 86.6 TakeTry MDMAlotiCe.Oicocaine cocaineLSD regularly once regularly or :hiketwice ...... 93.381.394.1: 93.982.495.3 92.179.195.8 91.977.096.4 90.874.796.9 : 91.176.396.7 90.774.696.8 91.576.696.7 93.277.097.0 94.579.796.8 93.879.397.0 94.380.296.6 96.787.397.8 96.289.196.4 TakeTry cocaine otaakcocaine .eeethaeaauy. powder powder once occasionallyregularly or twice eaeeei.siee ... Take'TrYTektTake:Try berOlii.: herein: heroinhereinheroin:00k*, Once' Mite taCesionellkoccasionally Or t*iee WitliOntwithout niAtig ;using aa needle:needle .941 - - .. 97.90 ...... 71.1 TryTake amphetaminesbarbitniatee amphetamines oeie: once regularly or twice tWitiO . . . 777.92.174.8 M1M92.875.1 92.574.2 Mil 8/4.:93.574.8 84.0.:83M75.194.4 93.075.4 . 82A:: 91.7 84A831:.:841:**84.9.::86.8:.92.072.6 92.672.3 93.672.8. 93.374.9 93.576.5 95.480.789M M9A: 94.282.5 _ TakeTryTake* one fourone or or ortwo two(beer,five drinks drinks drinks wine, of nearly nearly anliquor) alcoholic every every day beverageday ...... 88.767.621.603.3' :93.6 - 90.768.918.2 88.466.8 15.6 90.267.715.694.3 :95.2.15.868.391.7 69.090.816.095:4 91.869.117.2 69.918.2 68.918.4 72.917.4 70.920.3 72.820.9 74.221.4 92.875.022.6 SMOke,Have five One or more drinks once or twice each weekend 60.3 Mere Parke Of eignietteii Per day: I 67.5 65.9: -664 58.6 57.4 67.056.2 70.356.7 . 55.6 55.5 '69.458.8 ::70.8:::73-.090.9 56.6 90.0 59.6 91.0 :12:3 60.4 92.0:..75A:':74.3. 62.4 91.4 62.0 92.2 .. 73:1:65.3 Take steroids Approx. N = 2677 2957 3085 3686 3221 3261 3610 3651 3341 3254 3265 3113 3302 3311 (3)°Answer"The combined. 1975 alternatives question asked were: about(1) Don't people disapprove, who are (2)"20 Disapprove, or older." and (3) Strongly disapprove. 71 (Table continued on nest page) Percentages are shown for categories (2) and 72 Long-Terraa Trends fin Disapprov LE 7 of Drug(cont.) Use by Twelfth Graders doingDo you each disapprove of the following?' of people (who are 18 or older) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Percentage "dieapProvineb 1994 1995 1996 199712th 1998 Grade 1999 2000 2001 change '00-'01 Try marijuana once or *lee s . 64.6 67,8 68:7 69.9 63.3 57.6 56.7 52.5 51.0 51:6 48,8 62.5 49.1 -3.4 TryTakeSinoke.marijuanaSmoke MDMALSD LSD once marijuana regularly once or twiceor twice' occasionallyregularly . .77.2.96.489.7 .80.5'89.8 96.389.8 91:0 :79.496.490.189.3 95.588.190.179.7 95.885.987.6 75:5 94.382.582.398.9 92.5 .66.781.1 81.9 93.2 62.9 79.680.0 92.9 - 80.5-78.863.2 93.5 64.4..62.$82.181:2 94.3 83.078.6 . 82.2 82.5 82.1 819..65.894.282.479.7 .63.279.5 :79.394.081.8 . -1.5-0.2-0.6-0.4-2.7 . . . -0.1 TryTake cocaineciackonce cocaine once regularly or ortivice twice - 96.490.5 96.791.5 923 :92197.393.6 . 93.1:96.993.0 97.592.7899: . . .899-91496.691.6 :674 96.190.3 ...87'.0.: 95.690.0 96.088.0 86.7 95.689.5:87,6: 94.989.1 . . . . . :87,595.588.2 _87.0 94.988.1 . -0.5-0.6 TakeTryTake-crack cocaine Ciackcocaine occaeionallY regularlypowder powder once .occasionally or twice :4-4; - 87.9 ....949 -94293.088.0959 -95,5.95.0. I93.489.4 .934: 91.286.6 92,8 -:93.1:92.8.. 94.1;93991.087.1 949.912 92.788.3 923 89.783.1 91.391.9 89.383.0 909: 932: 88.783.192..3 90.084.3 .91,990.384.192.8 919. 792.283.389.8 ..;09:; ...... -0.5-0.8 :! Take cocaine powder regularly : - 92.1 94.4 94.3 93.0 92.6 92.5 -0.1 : - 93.7 96.0. 92.5 93.8 92.9 91.5 91.1 92.3 TakeTry heroin heroin once aocasionally or tivice : 95:4 95:1- 97.3 94.9 94.4 .96.293.2 92.8 92:1 '92.3 93:7 93.5 93.0 93.1' . +0.1 70.6 TakeTryTake heroin heroin heroin -onee oacasionall3i regularly or twiee withoutWithout ueingusing a needle : 97.4.97.2 96:7979 '97.8 '96.8 97.097.2 97.5 : 97.1 - '94.7.92.996.495,7 932 96.395..094.4.90:8- . 94.3.-:.93.8 .95.492.396.4 93,096.696.1 92.696.490.7 96.9.95.495.2:94.096.6 91.796.293.5 . -1.7s-0.42.3s TakeTry amphetamines amphetamines once regularly or twice . ' . : - . - : . 94.283.3 95.585.3 . 96.086.5 - 95.686.9 84.296.0 94.181.3 94.382.2 93.579.9 94.381.3 94.082.5 93.781.9 ' . : 94.182.1 93.482.3 +0.2-0.7 TakeTry onebarbiturates onebarbiturates or or two two(beer, drinks drinks eine regaltirlkwine, of ernearly anliquor) *ice alcoholic every daybeverage - 95.3 :899..76.527.3 90.5 77.929.4 ' 96.4 76.529.897.190.6 . 909 89.775.933.096.5 77.830.1979 - 73.128.496.187.5 ' 73.327.3979 '84.970.826.5 88.470.026.1 88.0 69.424.5 : 88.8.67.224.6 95.2 94.8 95.3 949 94.7 .95225.270.085.9 949' 26.6 69.2 -0.7 :. 859: +1.4-0.9 09 -: ' TakeSmokeHave foursteroidsfive one or or fivemore more drinks drinks packs nearly onceof dgarettes everyor twice day per each day weekend 66.5 68.9 72.491.6 72.891.9- 90.8 254790.571.467.490.6 92.173.570.790.8 92.170.670.190.6 91.969.8.65.189.8 91.066.788.868.2 91.764.789.4672 .67.191.465.088.6 90.863.886.768.8 69.588.962.786.9 88.870.165.288.4 86.471.662.9 +1.5-2.4s-2.3-2.0 73 SOURCE:NOTES: The Monitoring the Future Study, the University of Michigan. dueAnyLevel to apparent of rounding significance inconsistency error. of difference between betweenindicates the change the data two estimate notmost available. recent and the classes: prevalence a = .05, of ssuse = .01,estimates ass = .001.for the two most recent classes is Appmx. N = 2799 2566 2645 2723 2588 2603 2399 2601 2545 2310 2150 2144 74 Trends in Perceived Availability of Drugs by Eighth and Tenth Graders, TABLE 8 2=-2 some?drugs,followingyouHowthink to difficult getif ityou typeseachwould wanteddo ofof you be/brthe 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996. 1997 1998. 1999 mu mu change 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998. 1999 am 2Qu.8th changeGrade Percentage saying "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get' '00-'01 10th Grade '00-'01 MDMAPCP°.LSDMariju (Ecstasy)° :42.3 21.5 21.8 21.8 . 23.5 23.6 22.7 19.3 18.3 17.0 23.817.6 +0.6- . 33.6 35.8 36.1 39.8 41.0 38.3 34.0 34.3 32.9 41.421.6.31.2 - -1.7 HeroinCocaineCraek powder .19.725.7 - - 25.9*.4 194 211 20.6.j 26.4 27.8 27.2 ::j27:5.-:26:5 26.9 25.7 25.0 , 23.9 . 23.9 -0.0 .§. 33.735.0 .330 , 34.1 ;.24.7::* 24.6: 24.634.5 35.3 . 36.9 24.4.i37.1 230 237 36.8 . 36.7 22.334.53.4.0 31.0 -2;ls'-3.5sss - Other narcotics° 19.8 19.0 18.3 20.3 ------. 20.0 . . 20.6 17.1 16.2 15.6 15.0 -0.6 26.9 24.9------26.9 27.8 29.4 29.0 26.1 26.6 27.2 25.8 -1.4 Crystal meth. (ice)° 32.216.0 214-.::.31.0-15.1 14.1 33:4::16.0 .32.4 :.30.4; 273 24.9 :* 16.3 15.7 16.0 14.7 14.9 13.9264 -1.0 18.8 : 464 466 :47.7:::.47.4.16.4 .446 17.8 20.7 22.6 22.9 22.1 ..41.3 21.8 22.8409 19.9 .6 -2.9s-0.3. CigarettesAlcoholTranquilizersBirbituratei - -27477.876322.9 261 733 -743 743 753 749 73.1 75.521.4 76.120.4 76.421.3 76.920.4 76.019.6 73.618.1 71.572317.3 70.6 706 +0.1., 68.716.2 67.717.8 +1.5s-1.0 89.131.6 89.430.5 90.329.8 90.730.6 91.330.3 89.628.7 :32.7 88.126.5:: 33.2 :324 .-: 88.326.8 86.827.6 86.328.5320 +0.9 -0.5 NOTES:Steroidi, Approx. N = 8355 16775AnyLevel 16119 apparent of 15496 significance inconsistency 16318 16482of difference between 16208 15397betweenthe change 15180 the estimate two14804 most and recent the prevalenceclasses: s = of.05, use ss estimates= .01, sss for= .001. the two most24.0. recent ..22.7 classes .23.1::+23.8 is due to ':24.1..:,23.3 rounding error. .22,3 :1 :22.3;. . 701437.6 14652 ; -33.6 15192 ::33..6 16209 14887 14856 14423 13112 13690 13518 indicates data not available. ,34.8:., 33.0 :35.9 ; 36.4- 33. °Beginning°AnswerSOURCE: alternatives Thein 1993, Monitoring data were: based (1)the Probably onFuture half ofStudy, impossible, forms; the N University is (2) one-half Very of difficult,of Michigan. N indicated. (3) Fairly difficult, (4) Fairly easy, (5) Very easy, and (6) Can't say, drug unfamiliar. 75 76 How difficult do Long-Term Trends in Perceived Availability of Drugs by Twelfth TABLE 9 Grad rs yousome?ifingeachbe thinkyou for types of youwanted theit ofwoukl to follow- drugs, get 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Percentage saying "fairly easy" or "very easy"1984 to get° 1985 .19$6 12th Grade1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 change '00-'01 LSDAmyl/butylMakijuana : ' 46.287.8 374 874 .97.934.5 32878 2 34.290.1 35.389.9 35089.188.5. 34.2 30.986.2 30.684.6. 3050.6 285852 31423.9848 33.325.9850 38..326.8843 407.24.4844 39.5:44522.7833 82725.9 48.2.:50.8:.53.8 830 25.9 .5515. 26.7 26.0 51.3.23.9, 56.1.23.8 25.148.8 44.7.21.4 .46.9 23.344.7 22.5 -0.9 Some otherpsychedelic 47.8 35.7 33.8 33.8 34.6 35.0 32.7 30.6 - 26.6 26.6 26.1 24.9 25.0 28.2 28,2 28.3 28,0 29.9 33.5 33.8 35.8 33.9 33.9 29.5 34.5 40.5 Cocaine'MDMAPOP ....1-: (Ecstasy) 370 340 -330 :37.8: - 45.5 47..9 - 47.5 I:474 43.1 48.0 48.9. .51..8 - 228 41.1544 42.1249 47.058.721.728.0 :27354.522.0 rit8.52.7 48.546M 47.7 22.127.8::317 24.2 28.1817.:314 31.2 34.2310 48440.736.9305 48.540.638.830.0.:30.7 -5t3 38.243.8 47M,.25.741.140.1 .2.8.842.647.851.4 27..2. 45.261.540.2 -1.6 :-1:8+10.1sss-2.5 : HeroinCocaineCrack powder,: 24.2 18.4 17.9 16.4 18.9 21.2 19.2 20.8 19.3 19.9 .. 21.0 .. 22.0 : 23.752.9 - i59.3.28.0 31.453.7 .49.0..46.0:31.942.4 39.9 48.0:-454 43.5 43.6 :48.7 40.5 43.8. 41.9 30.6 34.9 33.7 34.1 35.1 32.2444 33.843.3::45.7 35.6 32.143.7 33.544.8 32.3 -1.2 AmphetaminesCrystalSome other:nar- inet11,:(ice)methadone)colic (including. 67.834.5 61.826.9 58.127.8 58.526.1 59.928.7 61.3294 69.529.6. 70.8 304 68.530.0 68.2311 66.433.1 64.3322 . 64.5330 63.9358 64.338.3 24.159.738.1. .24.3:.26.0.,26.6:57.3346 . 58.837.1- 61.5 37..5:25.5::27.0 62.0 330 62.839.8 49.059.4 27.6.59.838.9 60.842829.8. . 27.6..27.8;28.3.4540858.1 57.1439 40.557.1 -34 :.:: 0.0 TranqUilizer.8'Barbiturates 71.8.60.0: - 54.465.5 84.9.52.4 84.350.6 61.449.8 59.149.1 .. 60.854.9 58.955.2 55352.5 54.551.9 54.751.3 51.248.3 48.2. 47.8 48.4 44.7.45.9 49842.4 :.409 44.0 44.5 43.3 42.3 : 411::'39.2 37.9 36041.4 35.4:.38.2..40.0 40.7 37.9 37.4 35.7 -1.7 SteroidsAlcohol Approx. N =2627 2865 3065 3598 3172 3240 3578 3602 3385 3269 3274 3077 3271 3231 2806 2549 2476 46.7.2586 2670468 44.8 2526 42.9.45.5 2552 indicates data not available. 234040.3 2517'41.7 2520 '44.5 2215.44.695.0 2095 44894.81850 : 44.494.3 .-CIA -0.5 discontinuitybIn°AnswerSOURCE:NOTES: 2001 alternativesthe The questionin Monitoring the 2001 77were: text results. (1)was the Probably Futurechanged Study, impossible, from the"other University (2) psychedelic? Very difficult,of Michigan. to "other(3) Fairly hallucinogens" difficult, (4) Fairlyand "shrooms" easy, and was(5)Any Very addedLevel apparent easy. ofto significancethe inconsistency list of examples. of difference between These betweenthe changes change the likely estimate two most and recent the prevalenceclasses: a = of.05, use ss estimates= .01, ass for= .001. the two most recent classes is due to rounding error. explain the 78 Study Web site address: http://www.monitoringthefuture.org

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79 Study Web site address: http://www.monitoringthefuture.org

80 N IDANATIONAL INSTITUTE

N11-1 Publication No. 02-5105 Printed March 2002

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