Evidence about Bubble Mechanisms: Precipitating Event, Feedback Trading, and Social Contagion1 Neil D. Pearson Department of Finance University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1206 South Sixth Street, Champaign, Illinois 61821, U.S.A. Tel: +1 217 244 0490, Fax: +1 217 244 3102, Email:
[email protected] Zhishu Yang School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China Tel.: +86-10-62771769, Fax: +86-10-62785562
[email protected] Qi (Jacky) Zhang Department of Economics and Finance Durham University Business School Mill Hill Lane, Durham DH1 3LB, UK. Tel: +44 191 3345376 Email:
[email protected] This version: March 29, 2016 1 This research is supported by a grant from the NSFC (Project Number: 71272024). We gratefully thank Shi Gu and Yang Zhao for excellent research assistance. 1 Evidence about Bubble Mechanisms: Precipitating Event, Feedback Trading, and Social Contagion Abstract Shiller’s feedback loop theory of bubbles involves three elements: a precipitating event that causes an increase in prices, positive feedback trading, and social contagion that draws in new investors. We use brokerage account records from a large Chinese stock brokerage firm to document that all three components of the Shiller feedback loop are found during the Chinese put warrants bubble. An increase in the stock transaction tax made warrants relatively more attractive for speculative trading and was the precipitating event for the extreme phase of the bubble, causing immediate sharp increases in trading by new and existing investors and a jump in warrant prices. Hazard rate regressions provide evidence of positive feedback trading, and the period of heavy feedback trading coincided with the extreme phase of the bubble following the increase in the transaction tax.