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Models for Aspirant Civil Nuclear Energy Nations in the Middle East

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Models for Aspirant Civil Nuclear Energy Nations in the Middle East Energy Security Initiative at BROOKINGS Models for Aspirant Civil Nuclear Energy Nations in the Middle East Charles Ebinger John Banks Kevin Massy Govinda Avasarala The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20036 brookings.edu SEPTEMBER 2011 Policy Brief 11-01 Energy Security Initiative at BROOKINGS Models for Aspirant Civil Nuclear Energy Nations in the Middle East Charles Ebinger John Banks Kevin Massy Govinda Avasarala SEPTEMBER 2011 Policy Brief 11-01 About ThE bRookings Energy Security Initiative he Energy Security Initiative (ESI) is a cross-program effort by the Brookings Institution designed to Tfoster multidisciplinary research and dialogue on all aspects of energy security today. ESI recognizes that public and private choices related to energy production and use will shape the global economic, environmental and strategic landscape in profound ways and that achieving a more secure future will therefore require a determined effort to understand the likely consequences of these choices and their implications for sound policymaking. The ESI Policy Brief Series is intended to showcase serious and focused scholarship on topical issues in one or more of these broad research areas, with an emphasis on targeted policy recommendations. Contact for the Energy Security Initiative: Govinda Avasarala Research Assistant (202) 797-6231 [email protected] Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activi- ties supported by its donors reflect this commitment, and the analysis and recommendations of the Institution’s scholars are not determined by any donation. ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE MODELS FOR ASPIRANT CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST ii ACkNowlEdgements he authors are grateful to officials in the energy ministries and nuclear energy agencies and regulators of the subject countries that participated in this research. They would also like to thank James Acton Tfrom the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Suzanne Maloney and Ted Piccone at Brookings for their thoughtful and thorough reviews of the draft and their valuable recommendations for strengthening the paper, and Caldwell Bailey and Yinuo Geng for their research support. The authors are also grateful to Chen Kane of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Giacomo Luciani of Princeton University and Jean-François Seznec of Georgetown University for providing their valuable insights on this topic. Thanks also go to Gail Chalef and Robin Johnson for their help with the editing and publication process. ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE Models for Aspir Ant civil nucleAr energy nA tions in the Middle eA st iii ThE Authors Charles K. Ebinger Kevin Massy Charles Ebinger is a senior fellow and director of Kevin Massy is assistant director of the Energy the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings and Security Initiative at Brookings where he man- an adjunct professor of electricity economics at ages research into international energy relations Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International and domestic energy policy. A former journalist, Studies. He has more than 35 years of experience most recently for The Economist magazine, he specializing in international and domestic energy has written widely on the role of emerging tech- markets (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) and the geo- nologies in the energy sector. politics of energy, and has served as an energy policy advisor to over 50 governments. Govinda Avasarala Govinda Avasarala is a research assistant in the John P. Banks Energy Security Initiative at Brookings. His re- John Banks is a nonresident fellow at the Energy search focuses on the geopolitics of energy in Security Initiative at Brookings. He specializes in emerging markets and multilateral energy frame- working with governments, companies and regu- works. lators in establishing and strengthening policies, institutions and regulatory frameworks that pro- mote sustainable energy sectors, with a particular focus on emerging markets and electricity. He has worked in over 20 countries. ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE MODELS FOR ASPIRANT CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST iv TAblE of Contents PREFACE...............................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................ix INTRODUCTION ........................................................................1 PART I: COUNTRY ANALYSES ...........................................................3 Civil Nuclear Power in the United Arab Emirates ........................................3 Energy Context and Origins of the Nuclear Energy Program .............................3 Institutions and Principal Legal Framework............................................7 Training and education ............................................................10 International Agreements ..........................................................11 Summary and Findings ............................................................13 Civil Nuclear Power in Jordan .........................................................15 Energy Context and Origins of the Nuclear Energy Program ............................15 Institutions and Principal Legal Framework...........................................21 Training and Education . 23 International Agreements and Cooperation ...........................................25 Summary and Findings ............................................................27 Civil Nuclear Power in Turkey.........................................................29 Energy Context and Origins of a Nuclear Energy Program ..............................29 Institutions and Principal Legal Framework...........................................32 Training and education ............................................................35 International Agreements ..........................................................35 Summary and Findings ............................................................37 Civil Nuclear Power in Egypt ..........................................................37 Energy Context and Origins of the Nuclear Energy Program ............................37 Institutions and Principal Legal Framework...........................................42 Training and Education . 44 International Cooperation Agreements...............................................45 Summary and Findings ............................................................46 Civil Nuclear Power in Saudi Arabia ...................................................47 Energy Context and Origins of a Nuclear Energy Program ..............................47 Institutions and Legal Framework ...................................................51 Training and Education . 52 International Agreements ..........................................................53 Summary and Findings ............................................................54 ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE MODELS FOR ASPIRANT CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST v Civil Nuclear Power in Kuwait.........................................................55 Energy context and Origins of the Nuclear Energy Program.............................55 Institutions and Principal Legal Framework...........................................57 Training and Education . 57 International Agreements ..........................................................57 Summary and Findings ............................................................58 Civil Nuclear Power in Bahrain, Qatar and Oman .......................................58 Bahrain ..........................................................................59 Qatar............................................................................61 Oman ...........................................................................63 Summary and Findings ............................................................63 PART II: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . 65 Conclusions . .65 Recommendations ...................................................................71 ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE MODELS FOR ASPIRANT CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST vi Preface Country Analyses The Impact of The Arab Spring and Fukushima While this study refers to “aspirant” nuclear en- ergy countries in the Middle East, some nations This study is the result of a one-year research ef- have been omitted from the analysis: these in- fort looking at models for the development of clude Iran, Israel, Syria, and Yemen. According civilian nuclear power programs for states in the to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), an Middle East.1 During the course of the research, international nuclear industry organization, all two events occurred that, over time, may play a four of these countries have expressed an inter- role in determining if and how the countries of est in civilian nuclear power. Moreover, according the region pursue nuclear energy. The first is the to the WNA, two of these countries (Iran and Is- “Arab Spring”, which has seen millions of citizens rael) are further along than some states included in the Middle East and North Africa demand- in the study, such as Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. ing political and economic reforms. The second However, given the focus of this paper on models is the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan for the responsible and sustainable development on March 11, 2011 and severely damaged the Fu- of civil nuclear power, the
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