Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 AnA n AnalysisA naly sis of thethe EnergyE ner gy SSectorector PPerformanceerformance Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 An Analysis of Energy Sector Performance Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority 1st Floor, Block 5, BMICH, Bauddhaloka Mawatha, Colombo 07, Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority 1st Floor, Block 5, BMICH Bauddalokha Mawatha Colombo 07 Sri Lanka Copyright © by Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority ISSN: ISSN 2386-172X All rights reserved. First Printed in Sri Lanka 1976 Undoubtedly, the energy systems across the globe are undergoing an incredible transformation. Sri Lanka's energy sector is no exception. Like any other trajectory, the initial position, stance, velocity and direction at exit and more importantly the external forces exerted during the travel can influence the path of any projectile. Hence we chose 'Paths' as the theme of our cover story for the Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015. The cover graphic, a long exposure photograph of a busy road against the backdrop of a starry Northern sky presents a concept: a good concept for transforming the energy sector of Sri Lanka. The red hued streaks left by the tails lamps of vehicles moving away from the viewer and the white hued streaks are left by the head lamps of the oncoming vehicles. These streaks are nothing but random strokes of light, left by the random Paths taken by each vehicle. We may never know why a particular vehicle took a particular Path, as it is a result of the dynamics within the short span of time it took to pass the viewer. Such Paths are intrinsically shaped by the many local factors in the physical sense and are caused in the short term. These Paths are a story of completely random events, guided only by the paved roadway. The stars in the Northern sky, in contrast leave exact circular arcs, with a common centre near the polar star stella polaris and is never affected by the local and short term disturbances. Such star streaks are drawn in the heavenly canvas as long as one can imagine, oblivious to the turmoil in the terrestrial circumstances. Such rigid and permanent Paths have guided humanity to discover new continents and circumvent the globe for millennia. The energy sector too can benefit, if we set our eyes on such permanent goals as preservation, generation and nurturing of national wealth than reacting to local stimuli. Resolute actions, based on a long term vision realised after careful analysis of where we stand today and where we intend to be in future may take us to a new land in an energy sense, just the way mankind ‘discovered’ new world in the past few centuries, guided by stella polaris. Unknown to most of us, we have begun our journey. It is not too late to decide our Path. Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 Executive Summary Reporting of energy sector transactions entered a new phase, with the traditional energy value chains dominated by large scale suppliers and numerous users changing form to value chains operated by large number of small scale suppliers dealing with large number of users. These changes occurred mainly in onsite power generation using solar PV rooftop in the residential sector and large volumes of industrial thermal energy usage moving away from centrally supplied fossil fuels to widely sourced fuelwood supplies. These emerging complexities will continue to affect the timely reporting of energy sector transactions. Energy sector of Sri Lanka experienced certain unexpected events during 2015 starting from relatively low petroleum prices after a long spell of continuous escalation and also some low probability high impact events in the electricity sector. Apart from these events, positive trends observed in renewable energy development continued during 2015, hinting on a mature market form. Energy demand side management attracted the attention of policy makers, causing the Government to establish a Presidential Task Force on Energy Demand Side Management, which prepared a five year plan to tackle the growing demand in the most economic way. Coal power gained its firm position as the base load generator, relieving the country to a great extent from the burden of expensive power generation from liquid fossil fuel. The coal power generation met 34% of the total electricity generation in the country in 2015. Biomass is still the largest energy supply source, satisfying a greater portion of the cooking energy requirements of the domestic sector. While hydropower has already been extensively developed for electricity generation, studies have indicated that there is a large potential for wind and solar power development. Full exploitation of these resources is delayed, in view of the severe constraints imposed by the demand profile of the country. Studies are presently underway to establish the availability of offshore petroleum resources. Hitherto, biomass dominated the primary energy supply. But at present, both biomass and petroleum dominate in equal proportions, at 39% of the total primary energy supply. Coal accounts for 10%, followed by 9% of hydro power and 3% of New Renewable Energy (NRE). Electricity remains the main secondary energy source. The total amount of electricity generated during 2015 was 13,206.8 GWh out of which 51% was from thermal plants. The NRE generation reached 11% in 2015, which successfully managed to meet the policy target of generating 10% of electricity from NRE sources by 2015. The solar net-metering scheme accounted for approximately 38.8 GWh by 2015, which further reinforced towards achieving the policy target of generating 10% of electricity from NRE resources by 2015. After several years, the CEB reported a positive financial performance with a 2.0% return on assets, while the LECO also recorded a profit of 4.5% return on asset. The electricity tariff revised on September 16 and November 15, 2014 was effective for 2015 as well. A Time of Use tariff was introduced to the Domestic category with effect from September 15, 2015. The petroleum distribution remained stable with the two suppliers; CPC and Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC) operating a widespread distribution network around the country. Similar to previous years, the largest energy consuming sector in 2015 was the household, commercial and other sector, using a share of 40.6% of the country’s total energy demand. Transport sector share of energy consumption, which was mainly met through liquid petroleum, accounted for a share of 28.8%, while the industrial sector surpassed the transport demand at 30.6%. International crude oil prices (Brent) declined in 2015, compared to 2014. The average Brent fell by to USD 53.75 per barrel in 2015, from USD 99.68 per barrel in 2014. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between US dollars 36-68 per barrel in 2015. Domestic retail prices of petroleum products were also reduced several times in 2015 in response to the decline in oil prices in the international market. The Grid Emission Factors calculated for 2015 gives the Simple Operating Margin as 0.6896 t-CO2/MWh, the Build Margin as 1.0067 t-CO2/MWh and the Combined Margin as 0.8481 t-CO2/MWh . IV ı Sri Lanka Sutainable Energy Authority Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 Key Energy Statistics Primary Energy (PJ) 2014 2015 Total Demand (PJ) 2014 2015 Biomass 205.6 202.2 Biomass 204.5 200.7 Petroleum 190.8 202.6 Petroleum 135.9 171.4 Coal 38.5 51.9 Coal 2.6 2.3 Major hydro 36.7 49.3 Electricity 39.5 42.3 New Renewable Energy 12.6 15.3 Total 382.5 416.6 Total 484.2 521.4 Demand by Sector (PJ) 2014 2015 Imports (kt) 2014 2015 Industry 98.9 127.5 Crude Oil 1,828.8 1,676.8 Transport 112.5 119.8 Coal 1,606.6 1,881.5 Household & Commercial 171.0 169.3 Finished Products 2,847.5 2,995.3 Total 382.4 416.6 LPG 198.0 277.0 Gasoline 584.8 899.0 Industry Demand (PJ) 2014 2015 Avtur 234.9 270.8 Biomass 73.1 75.5 Auto Diesel 1,394.4 1,288.8 Petroleum 9.8 35.8 Fuel Oil 348.4 203.3 Coal 2.6 2.3 Avgas 0.2 0.1 Electricity 13.5 14.0 Bitumen 56.0 32.2 Total 98.9 127.5 Mineral Gas Oil 30.9 24.1 Transport Demand (PJ) 2014 2015 Refined Products (kt) 2014 2015 Petroleum 112.5 119.8 Crude Input 1,824.0 1,692.1 Total 112.5 119.8 Naphtha 117.0 136.6 Petrol 152.3 154.2 HH, Comm, Other (PJ) 2014 2015 Avtur 168.5 154.6 Biomass 131.4 125.2 Kerosene 65.2 75.2 Petroleum 13.6 15.8 Diesel 496.2 516.7 Electricity 26.0 28.3 Furnace Oil 641.2 552.5 Total 171.0 169.3 Solvents 2.5 1.5 Total Output 3,466.9 3,283.3 Electricity Demand (GWh) 2014 2015 Domestic 4,051.1 4,444.7 Grid Capacity (MW) 2014 2015 Religious 72.1 76.4 Major Hydro 1,377.0 1,377.0 Industrial 3,758.2 3,880.1 Thermal Power 2,213.0 2,028.0 Commercial 2,985.2 3,178.9 New Renewable Energy 439.7 455.0 Streetlighting 135.3 160.7 Micro Power Producers (µPP) 13.3 27.7 Total 11,001.9 11,740.9 Total 4,042.9 3,887.6 Grid Emission Factors 2014 2015 Gross Generation (GWh) 2014 2015 (t-CO2/MWh) Major Hydro 3,649.7 4,904.4 Operating Margin 0.6938 0.6896 Thermal (Oil) 4,419.3 2,339.2 Build Margin 0.7490 1.0067 Thermal (Coal) 3,525.0 4,457.2 Combined Margin 0.7214 0.8481 New Renewable Energy 1,217.5 1,467.1 Micro Power Producers (µPP) 18.6 38.8 GDP at 1982 factor cost 452,246 473,954 Total 12,830.1 13,206.8 prices (million LKR) Commercial Energy Intensity 0.39 0.46 Average electricity price (TJ/LKR million) 18.5 16.4 (LKR/kWh) Electricity Sold (kWh/person) 532.1 560.0 Net oil imports as % of non Petroleum Sold (kg/person) 194.9 207.7 41.3 24.6 petroleum exports Sri Lanka Sutainable Energy Authority ı V Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015 Acknowledgement Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority wishes to express its sincere thanks to the following institutions for their valuable cooperation in the compilation of the “Sri Lanka Energy Balance 2015” and the Analysis of Energy Sector Performance.