NDR Boston and Itaú BBA 14th Annual LatAm CEO Conference May, 2019 Disclaimer
This communication contains certain statements that are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Some of these forward-looking statements are identified with words like “believe,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “might,” “possible,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “estimate”, “potential”, “outlook” or “continue,” the negative of these words, other terms of similar meaning or the use of future dates. Forward-looking statements in this communication include, without limitation, statements regarding the implementation of operating and financing strategies and initiatives, including with respect to the integration of Fibria’s operations and expected potential synergies, plans with respect to capital expenditures, and factors or trends affecting financial condition, liquidity or results of operations. Such statements reflect the current views of management and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including changes in prices and customer demand for our products, changes in raw material costs, pricing actions by competitors, changes in the rates of exchange of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, and general changes in the economic environment in Brazil, emerging markets or internationally. Such forward-looking statements are qualified by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations generally, and actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to such risks and uncertainties. There is no guarantee that the expected events, trends or results will actually occur.
The statements information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation and should thus be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time. They are based on many assumptions and factors, including general economic and market conditions, industry conditions, and operating factors, and are subject to change without notice. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Suzano does not undertake any obligation to update any information, opinion or forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as expressly required by law. All information, opinions and forward-looking statements in this communication are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The New Suzano An
first class assets base
Our plantations
hectares of planted and certified areas Geographically eucalyptus genetic base equivalent to 200x Manhattan
areas m³/ha/year structural harvesting and average productivity average radius inbound logistics An
first class assets base
Our mills
MWm average pulp
equivalent to supply chain tons of tons of 1.4 mn market pulp paper people town An
first class assets base
Our logistics
mills fully either close to shore export or railway connected pulp served An
first class assets base
Paper business
pulp go-to-market Brazilian clients Brazilian integrated model brands market share¹
¹ Addressable market. Fully integrated
Plantation
Mill
Railway
Port Undisputable
in the pulp industry
Cash Cost(¹) Top 10(²)
Suzano Hardwood Softwood 10,9 APP + PE 3,8 CMPC 3,7 459 462 435 442 442 Arauco 3,1 391 April 361 367 2,8 341 Metsa 293 286 2,7 UPM 2,6 225 Stora Enso 2,1 Mercer 2,0
Ilim 1,8
Chile
Brazil
China
Europe
Indonesia
Canada/US US/Canada
East East Europe
Other World Other
Other Europe Other Chile/Uruguay
Other Asia/Japan Other ¹ Source: Hawkins Wright December 2018 (CIF Europe – USD/ton). ² Market pulp capacity production including hardwood and softwood volumes. Consistently cash cost R$/ton¹
709 690 668 622
2015 2016 2017 2018
¹ Cash production cost ex-downtimes. Pro forma basis of Suzano Papel e Celulose and Fibria Celulose cash production cost (R$/ton). Figures are adjusted by Brazilian inflation (IPCA) which represents R$ 104/t in 2015, R$ 52/t in 2016 and R$ 57/t in 2017. in place
Well-balanced Board of Directors Supported by Management Up to 10 members Audit Statutory Committee Eligibility assessment Management and Finance Committee 20% independent Innovation and Strategy Committee members Sustainability Committee + Talent and Compensation Committee Synergies Structural competitiveness boosted by
Capture Profile1
100% 90% Operational Synergies G&A Supply Chain 40% R$800MM R$900MM Forestry per year¹ Industrial
¹ Total Steady State. Dec /2019 Dec /2020 Dec /2021 Structural competitiveness boosted by
Selected Logistic / examples Industrial Forestry Commercial Procurement G&A
Reduction in Wood supply Routes Contractual Organizational Initiative products (SKUs) optimization Optimization parameters Structure per plant equalization adjustment
Lower consumption Wood Operational scale Lower cost in Headcount of chemicals logistics cost expansion industrial and reduction Benefit reduction forestry inputs Higher OEE¹ Transshipment and fuel costs reduction
¹ Overall equipment effectiveness Adjusted Balance Average² annual deductible Accounting effect: Sheet to fair value¹ R$ 18.4 bn expenses of R$1.2 bn¹ EBT reduction
Preliminary Average3 annual fiscal Tax effect: Goodwill¹ R$ 8.1 bn deduction of R$0.8 bn¹ taxable base reduction
Total R$ 26.5 bn
¹ Based on preliminary PPA as disclosed on 2018 Financial Statements – Note 32 (ii). ² Estimate considering preliminary 10 years depreciation period. ³ Estimate considering preliminary 10 years fiscal amortization period. Resulting Company mostly from international markets 3% 15% Others Specialties Net revenues (US$ billion) 8,7 7,0 6,1 6,1 Americas 5,6 Pulp
Europe
Asia 57% 25% Tissue P&W 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Note: Pro forma figures of Suzano and Fibria historical data. Note: The data represents simple sum out of the sold volumes Average exchange rate of R$ 2.35 in 2014, R$ 3.33 in 2015, R$ 3.49 in 2016, R$ 3.19 in 2017 and R$ 3.65 in 2018. of Suzano + Fibria and also considers Klabin’s volumes. Adjusted EBITDA¹ and Margin¹ Operational Cash Generation² R$ million and (%) R$ million
1
25.000 6.0%
20.000 51.6% 51.4% 1
1
5.0%
20.000
1 16,361 15.000 15,770 4.0% 12,481 1 15.000 11,907
1
3.0%
10.000
0
10.000
2.0%
0
5.000
0
5.000
1.0%
0
0 0.0% 0 0 2018 LTM1Q19 2018 LTM1Q19
¹ Excludes sales from the commercial agreement with Klabin. ² Operational Cash Generation = Adjusted EBITDA less Sustaining CAPEX. Note: for 2018 and LTM 1Q19 data is pro forma, considering the sum of the results of the companies, or weighted where applicable Revenue 88% USD Hedging Policy
COGS 20% USD Operating Hedge Debt Hedge Target: up to 75% of the Target: Net debt SG&A 27% USD following 18 months 100% denominated Sustaining in USD 11% USD Current: 63% of Capex net exposure² Sensitivity¹
~ R$ 700 million EBITDA ~ R$ 600 million ¹ Sensitivity at each R$ 0.10/US$ variation Operational Cash ² Net exposure as of December 2018. Generation debt profile
Amortization Schedule (US$ million)¹ 6,646 average debt maturity
2,541 RCF 756 Average Cost (US$)²: 2,439 1,524 1,519 1,393 Cash on 1,785 1,128 hand 931 US$ 15.6 bn Liquidity 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 onwards
¹ PTAX of 3.90 R$/US$ on March 31,2019 ² Total average cost in US$ considering the debt in BRL adjusted by the market swap curve. 10% Non Trade Finance 32% Related Bank Local
Counterpart Sources
68% International 36% 32% 22% Trade Finance International Local Capital and Related Bank Capital Banks Markets
Funding sources Funding breakdown considers the adjustments mentioned at amortization schedule slide. Policies Indebtedness Net Debt/EBITDA Ratio (in US$):
1.0x to 3.0x 1.0x to 3.5x Normal Cycle Investment Cycle
Dividend The lowest between: 25% of the net income or 10% of the Operational Net Debt (US$ billion) Cash Flow Generation¹ 13.8 10
Leverage US$ (Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA)² 3.3x Mar-19³ Long-Term Target
¹ Operational Cash Flow = Adjusted EBITDA – Sustaining Capex | ² Net Debt and Leverage on March 31, 2019 and considers the adjustments mentioned on amortization schedule slide. | . ³Closing rate (BRL/USD): Dec/18: R$ 3.87; Mar/19: R$3.90 Capital
Capex (R$ billion) 2018 2019e Sustaining 3.9 4.0 Modernization and Expansion 2.0 0.6 Forest and Land 1.3 1.4 Port Terminals¹ 0.2 0.4
Total 7.4 6.4
¹ States of São Paulo and Maranhão. Bonds One of the
G-spread in Brazil
312 293 280 249 249 256 228 236 210 191 Investment Grade
Rating Outlook
BBB- Stable
BBB- Stable BRAZIL GERDAU SUZANO BRASKEM VALE VOTORATIM RAIZEN KLABIN PETROBRAS BRF
¹ Issuances with no maturity in 2026 interpolated for comparative purposes using a premium of 6.5bps per annum of extension/compression; G-spread as of May 9, 2019. Source: Bloomberg. Peers 6,0
5,5
5,0
Suzano 26 (BBB-) 4,5 CMPC 27 (BBB-)
4,0 Arauco 27 (BBB-)
3,5 IP 26 (BBB)
3,0 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19
Source: Bloomberg, as of 05/09/2019 Pulp Market on global pulp demand
Global Market Pulp Demand By Grade in million tons in million tons Softwood +1.4/y +0.2/y +0.2/y +0.4/y +1.3/y 66,0 27,0 21,8 24,3 24,9 +1.2/y 58,9 55,0
42,8 2005 2015 2018 2023E
Hardwood +1.0/y +1.1/y +1.0/y 34,0 39,0 30,8 21,1
2005 2015 2018 2023E 2005 2015 2018 2023E
Source: PPPC S&D 2019. Supported by market dynamics
Chinese Market Pulp Demand Tissue Consumption per Capita Tissue Machine Closures from in million tons in kgs per year Environmental Restrictions in million tons 25,6 1,4 1,4 1,5 +1.1/y 16,0 15,7 25,3 0,6 +1.1/y 0,5 6,7 6,0 19,8 +1.1/y North West Japan Latin China 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 16,5 America Europe America
Chinese Waste Paper Imports Woodchip Supply Restrictions in million tons in million BDMT 25 29 28 23 26 Others 3 Chile 3,1 3,3 2 5,8 17 Australia 6,5 4,5 ? Southeast Asia 12,4 13,3
2005 2015 2018 2023E 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019- 2018 2023E 2023E Source: PPPC S&D 2019, RISI, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI. Driven by end-uses
Global Market Pulp 58.9 Demand Annual Demand by end use million tons Growth until 2030 Paper and paperboard Tissue & Fluff 47% +2.9% demand average growth of
Printing & Writing 26% -0.7%
Specialty 20% +0.6% until Packaging +2.3% Breakdown 2030
Source: PPPC S&D 2019, Poyry, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI. No major new capacity announced after OKI and H2 projects
1 200 BHKP BHKP adjusted by CPI 2,5
(2) (2) 1 000 Horizonte 2 )
2 ton Eldorado
800 (3) APP South MAPA Rizhao (‘000 Maranhão Sumatra(1) 1,5 Três Lagoas Montes del Plata Guaíba II 600 Fray Bentos APP Hainan Santa Fé Klabin Nueva Aldea CIF CIF (US$/ton) Europe Veracel 1
- Chenming 400 Mucuri Kerinci Aracruz Valdivia PL3 Zhanjiang Jacarei APP Guangxi Oji Nantong Metsa 0,5
200 Capacity Additions Pulp Pulp Prices
- 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
7,400 kt 5,250 kt (1) Partially integrated production (2) Sources: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Suzano (3) Gross capacity, does not consider the closure of Line 1 in Horcones plant (Source: RISI)
Adjustment of production to meet demand and manage inventory levels
Maximization of NPV in the long term Estimated Market Pulp Production in 20191
Preservation of more productive forest base
Wood supply mix management 9.0 – 9.4 million tons
Gradual implementation during the year
1Production capacity depending on conditions of global pulp market.
33 Our Future Innovation and New Businesses Consumer Goods Pulp Paper
Fluff Nanocellulose Bio fuel Geographic Organic expansion in Brazil International Expansion
Lignin Dissolving Pulp Bio Composites Portfolio expansion M&A
Backup 2018 2019 2020 Mill – Pulp capacity 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Aracruz - Line A (ES) – 590 kt Aracruz - Line B (ES) – 830 kt Aracruz - Line C (ES) – 920 kt
Imperatriz (MA)² – 1,650 kt
Jacareí (SP) – 1,100 kt
Limeira (SP)² – 690 kt
Mucuri - Line 1 (BA)² – 600 kt
Mucuri - Line 2 (BA) – 1,130 kt No downtimes
Suzano (SP)² – 520 kt No downtimes
Três Lagoas - Line 1 (MS) – 1,300 kt
Três Lagoas - Line 2 (MS) – 1,950 kt
Veracel (BA)¹ – 560 kt No downtimes Demand Growth 2018-2030 in million tons
+80 (+1.5%/yr) 495 479 487 465 472 451 458 432 438 445 90 420 426 91 91 414 93 92 94 93 96 95 97 96 59 P&W 99 98 55 57 52 54 49 51 45 46 48 Tissue & Fluff 41 43 44
220 200 205 210 215 182 186 191 195 Containerboard 166 169 174 178
Cartonboard 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 58 59 60 61 62
Specialty 60 60 60 61 61 61 62 62 62 63 63 64 64
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Poyry, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI Share on total fiber consumption
4 20 40 60 80 100
Tissue Containerboard 3 Paperboard
2
Packaging 1 Uncoated Newsprint Woodfree Other
0
-1
Coated Average growth of
-2 Woodfree Estimated Estimated demand until growth 2030 (%p.a.)
-3 Emerging Markets: 2.2% p.a. Coated Uncoated Mature Markets: -0.2% p.a. Source: Poyry Mechanical (2017) Mechanical 65 398 413 175 Unbleached 59 Non-Wood 2 Others 6 Mechanical Fluff Newsprint 34 4 6 23 Tissue 35 Recycled Softwood P&W Integrated 20 217 110 100
BCP 59
Packaging Hardwood Virgin 34 222 Market Pulp 175 65
2018 Total Fiber Consumption Virgin Pulp Market Pulp Bleached Chemical Paper Pulp (BCP) Production
Source: Poyry, Hawkins Wright and Suzano BI Investor Relations www.suzano.com.br/ir [email protected]