US ELECTIONS A P RIMER SOUMYA BHOWMICK SANGEET JAIN INTRODUCTION 2 © 2020 Observer Research Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Attribution: Soumya Bhowmick and Sangeet Jain, US Elections 2020: A Primer, October 2020, Observer Research Foundation. Observer Research Foundation 20 Rouse Avenue, Institutional Area New Delhi 110002 India [email protected] www.orfonline.org ORF provides non-partisan, independent analyses and inputs on matters of security, strategy, economy, development, energy and global governance to diverse decision-makers (governments, business communities, academia and civil society). ORF’s mandate is to conduct in-depth research, provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrow’s thought leaders today. 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INTRODUCTION 3 INTRODUCTION 4 INTRODUCTION he United States (US) is set to head into a sharp slide from the March numbers.2 Analysts are its 59th quadrennial presidential election anticipating long queues at polling places and potentially in early November. Being an election late results, and there has been an unusual amount of for arguably the most powerful political litigation with at least 200 cases pending in 43 states Tseat in the world, the race between Democrat Joe across the country regarding changes to voting rules Biden—former vice president to Barack Obama — and due to the pandemic.3 The president has not helped by Republican Donald Trump was billed early on as one casting doubt on the reliability of mail-in ballots—which of the most politically fraught elections the country experts have identified as the safest way to vote amidst has seen yet. Indeed, the election comes at a time of the pandemic. The government response to COVID-19, heightened racial tensions, misinformation wars, and and the political contestation around it is poised to abounding conspiracy theories, compounded by an become a key factor defining election outcomes this year. unprecedented virus pandemic. Second, the report provides a glimpse into the electoral This report is a state-wise exposition on the US elections history and electorate profile of each of the states. It this year. We aim to make three key contributions offers a commentary on the main issues that matter to towards current analyses on the 2020 US elections. these electorates and a glimpse of how states are likely to First, this report outlines the impact of the COVID-19 vote this November. In this regard, the report divides the pandemic—likely outsized—on US states and their states into three broad categories: (1) the “battleground economies. So-called “battleground states” like Texas, states”—which, by ORF’s reckoning, could swing the Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan are among outcome of the election either way; (2) the “Red” states, the top 10 states in the US in terms of COVID-19 death or those that are most likely voting Republican; and tolls, as of 15 October 2020.1 The report also aims (3) the “Blue” states, those that are predicted to vote to capture the peculiarities in the political dynamics Democrat. and contestations around the pandemic in the states, with respect to the mask mandate, for example, Finally, this report seeks to break new ground in and the electoral reforms spurred by the pandemic. pondering the potential influence of the Indian- Indeed, COVID-19 has upended state capacity and American community as an electoral constituency in election processes to an unprecedented extent and these states. To be sure, the Indian-American population has the potential to alter voter attitudes and turnout has become a political force to reckon with in many significantly. It has compounded the polarisation, too, parts of the US, despite the community comprising just with the politicisation of health messaging around about one percent of the electorate. This is mainly due the pandemic. At present, only 38 percent of citizens to the growing numbers of Indian-Americans in the approve of President Trump’s handling of the pandemic, battleground states (these states are home to roughly INTRODUCTION 5 1.4 million Indian-American voters), and also partly Party.7 Commentators like Seema Sirohi8 have written owes to Indian-Americans being a particularly high- about the Democratic Party’s disapproval of alleged skilled and prosperous community that makes large human rights violations in India, calls for intervention contributions to election campaigns.4 A survey by in Kashmir by Kamala Harris in October 2019, Indiaspora and the Asian American and Pacific Islanders and various liberal American City Councils passing (AAPI) released in September 2020, has found that 66 resolutions against India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, percent of Indian-Americans across the US favour the as all equally driving Indian-Americans’ shift away from Democratic Party nominee Biden, 28 percent are for the Democratic Party.9 There is, however, little evidence the incumbent Trump, and six percent are undecided. to support such view. Indeed, Trump has made an Democratic Party lawmaker, Raja Krishnamoorthi, once early mark on the Indian community with his referred to these undecided Indians, especially from administration’s organising of high-profile events the battleground states, as the “tipping factor” in the with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Houston in the November polls.5 US and Ahmedabad in India, as well as by using the ‘Howdy Modi!’ event in a Republican election The report also delves into the growing cultural campaign video. Still, this report finds, the issues that influence of the Indian diaspora in many of these states matter to the electorate as well as Indian-Americans and spotlights key individuals of Indian descent in the are immigration, healthcare, and education reform. US who could have a probable influence on the Indian- This, coupled with the fact that younger Indians are American vote bank. Democrat Kamala Harris’ selection largely liberal and lean Democrat, as well as the Kamala as running mate to Biden, for one, has added flavour Harris nomination, could be enough to tip the balance to the race as far as Indian-Americans are concerned; in favour of the Democrats. some 49 percent of respondents to the Indian American Attitudes Survey said her candidacy has “invigorated” The 2020 US election promises to be a political them to vote Democrat this election.6 spectacle unlike anything the world has seen before, with far-reaching implications for the country’s There has recently been rife speculation concerning domestic politics and the outlook for Indian and world India-US relations and the impact of foreign policy foreign policy. It is the Observer Research Foundation’s perceptions on the Indian-American vote. An Indian endeavour to continue to provide in-depth analyses Express report took the view that nostalgia for the of developments in this space as they happen. This homeland was translating to support for the Republican report is a contribution towards that end. INTRODUCTION 6 ENDNOTES: 1 United States. Worldometer. 2 Thomas Gift, “Trump’s electoral fortunes may hinge on whether he can distract voters from his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic”, LSE Blogs, August 7, 2020, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/08/07/trumps- electoral-fortunes-may-hinge-on-whether-he-can-distract-voters-from-his-handling-of-the-covid-19- pandemic/ 3 Thomas Gift, “Trump’s electoral fortunes may hinge on whether he can distract voters from his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic”, LSE Blogs, August 7, 2020, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/08/07/trumps- electoral-fortunes-may-hinge-on-whether-he-can-distract-voters-from-his-handling-of-the-covid-19- pandemic/ 4 Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, “Indian-Americans are with Democrats”, Hindustan Times, October 15, 2020, https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/indian-americans-are-with-democrats/ story-l9KWSRPRud2gu7t7znFvOP.html 5 Mehrotra, “Will this matter in November” 6 Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, “Indian-Americans are with Democrats”, Hindustan Times, October 15, 2020, https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/indian-americans-are-with-democrats/ story-l9KWSRPRud2gu7t7znFvOP.html 7 Mehrotra, “Will this matter in November” 8 Seema Sirohi, “Democrats have a loyal base in Indian Americans, but Trump is fast pulling them to his side”, The Print, August 12, 2020, https://theprint.in/opinion/democrats-have-a-loyal-base-in-indian-americans-but- trump-is-fast-pulling-them-to-his-side/480219/ 9 Karishma Mehrotra, “Will this matter in November,” The Indian Express, September 27, 2020, https:// indianexpress.com/article/world/us-presidential-elections-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-kamala- harris-6617252/ INTRODUCTION 7 INTRODUCTION 8 THE U.S.