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Armed Conflict

Israel & Palestinian Territories Alert: At least 09 220 rockets launched from Gaza Strip into AUG southern Israel on August 8-9 7:04 UTC

Please be advised

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson, at least 220 rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel between the evening hours of August 8 and the morning hours of August 9. The Iron Dome anti-missile defense system has intercepted 42 launches, while 181 others fell in open areas in southern Israel. Color Red sirens have been sounded multiple times in Hof Ashkelon, Eshkol, Sdot Negev, Sha’ar HaNegev, and Lakhish regional councils as well as the towns of Ashkelon and Sderot. At least 17 Israelis have been wounded in Sderot and Eshkol Regional Council as a result of the rocket fires. In response, the IDF targeted over 140 Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip on two occasions, one at approximately 01:00 (local time) on August 9, and another at approximately 6:30 on August 9. The targets included Hamas cement production sites, escape shafts, five training complexes, a weapons depot, a compound used by Hamas for naval military training, and a meeting place for senior Hamas commanders of the Khan Younis Brigade. The Israel Home Front Command has halted all rail services in the Ashkelon-Sderot sector. All trains from northern Israel will end at Ashkelon Station and all trains from southern Israel will end at Netivot Station. At the time of writing, the IDF is deploying additional tanks and troops from the Iron Dome defense system units to southern Israel. Reports quoting a senior IDF official indicate that Israel will evacuate resident from the Gaza border communities in the coming hours if needed.

page 1 / 5 Most recently, Color Red sirens were sounded in Eshkol, Hof Ashkelon, Sdot Negev, and Sha’ar HaNegev regional councils as well as Ashkelon and Sderot at approximately 09:45 on August 9.

page 2 / 5 page 3 / 5 Assessments & Forecast

1. This development is highly notable as it represents a significant escalation in hostilities along the Gaza-Israel border. It is the largest barrage of rocket fire from Gaza into southern Israel since Israel’s Operation “Protective Edge” in the Gaza Strip in 2014. That said, similar rocket fires, albeit not at this scale, have taken place in the region over the past months. The most recent such incident took place on July 13-14, when a barrage of at least 200 rockets and mortars was launched from Gaza into Israel. Although ceasefire agreements were reached between Hamas and Israel on July 15 as well as July 21, after Israel conducted a large-scale aerial campaign over the Gaza Strip following a shooting attack targeting IDF personnel stationed along the southern Gaza-Israel border, this latest development highlights the fragility of such agreements. 2. This recent round of hostilities was likely triggered by several developments over the past two days. This includes the August 7 killing of two Hamas militants attempting a sniper attack at IDF troops, the setting ablaze of IDF equipment along the border, as well as the wounding of several Israelis as result of the rocket fire, which further escalated the hostilities. Meanwhile, the developments come amidst ongoing Egyptian-brokered negotiations concerning a long-term ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Thus, the rocket fire is likely an attempt by Hamas to pressure Israel to make concessions and pressure Israel to reach an agreement, as the Palestinian faction assesses that the former is uninterested in engaging in large-scale hostilities. 3. That being said, the recent chain of events carries an elevated potential to escalate further, particularly considering the relatively high number of Israeli civilians wounded in the round of attacks. This is also pertinent given that the latest round is the fifth such barrage of rocket and mortar fire from Gaza into Israel since May. This will likely put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take more significant actions against Hamas, particularly in light of the prospect of parliamentary elections in Israel, amidst ongoing tensions within the Likud-led coalition. Thus, Netanyahu likely seeks to project a stronger image in order to reassure his support base.

4. FORECAST: The IDF will likely deploy additional Iron Dome batteries to southern Israel over the coming hours to further mitigate the risk of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. If the hostilities will persist over the coming hours, additional tanks and troops may be deployed to southern Israel to project a strict stance towards this latest escalation and prompt Hamas to cease the rocket fire and halt hostilities. Furthermore, the IDF may also escalate measures by conducting targeted assassinations of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leaders. Meanwhile, in addition to further attacks at Israeli communities located in close proximity to the Gaza Strip, Hamas will potentially launch rockets deeper into Israeli territory, possibly targeting the towns of Ashdod, Beer Sheva, and Kiryat Gat.

Recommendations

Israel

1. Travel to Israel may continue at this time while adhering to security precautions regarding militant attacks, while avoiding the immediate vicinity of the Syrian, Lebanese, and Egyptian borders, due to the persistent risk for cross-border violence. 2. Avoid nonessential travel to the Hof Ashkelon, Eshkol, Sdot Negev, Sha’ar HaNegev, and Lakhish regional councils on August 9 due to the abovementioned instances of rocket fire at these locales, as well as the potential for further such incidents. 3. Those operating or residing in southern Israel, including in Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beer Sheva, and Kiryat Gat, should adhere to all IDF Homefront Command guidelines regarding early warning sirens for incoming rockets. If you hear a siren, seek shelter in a protected area and remain inside for at least ten minutes.

page 4 / 5 4. As a general security precaution, ensure that contingency and emergency evacuation plans are updated due to the potential for a further deterioration in the security situation. We advise to contact us to be briefed on the situation, while consulting us for operational support.

Palestinian Territories

1. We advise against all travel to the Gaza Strip at this time due to continuous border crossing closures and the threat of militant activity. Those operating or residing in the Gaza Strip are advised to initiate contingency and emergency evacuation plans due to deterioration in the security situation. Contact us for itinerary and contingency support options. 2. If travel is unavoidable, avoid one km from the border fence with Israel, due to the risk of cross-border violence.

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