Propeller Guard Information Center Page 1
Houseboat Propeller Injury Avoidance Measures
Proposed and Withdrawn by the U.S. Coast Guard:
An Analysis by the Propeller Guard Information Center
by Gary Polson P.E.
Originally Published June 10, 2010
Version: June 15, 2010
The Proposed Regulation Known as USCG 2001- 10163
Proposed in December 2001 and Withdrawn in October 2007
A web page has been setup to support this paper. Please check it for updates and additional materials.
http://www.rbbi.com/pgic/houseboats
This paper is for informational purposes only. It is NOT professional advice for those considering modifying any boat with any safety devices.
© 2010 Polson Enterprises. All Rights Reserved. Propeller Guard Information Center Page 2
Two Critical Findings
We are concerned two very important points may be overlooked due to the length and complexity of this report. Therefore we briefly mention them here. Both points are made in much greater detail in the report.
Critical Finding 1: The U.S. Coast Guard made a game changing error in estimat- ing implementation costs of the proposed rule. They failed to recognize 95 per- cent of all houseboats only need a mirror and a swim ladder interlock system to comply. As a result their total implementation cost estimate was over 5 times the actual cost.
U.S. Coast Guard based their $1500 per houseboat implementation cost estimate on hauling every houseboat and installing two propeller guards on it. Per the proposed rule, 95 percent of all houseboats are private nonrental houseboats. Those houseboats only require a mirror (estimated cost $20 self installed per the proposed rule) and a swim ladder interlock system (estimated cost $100 plus installation per the proposed rule). Ninety-five percent of all houseboats did not require the much more costly alternative of hauling and installing propeller guards.
The National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) estimated swim ladder inter- lock system installation required approximately 1.5 hours at $69 per hour or $103.50 each.
A rough estimate of implementation costs per private (nonrental) houseboats is provided in Table A.
Table A Rough Estimate of Implementation Costs of Private Nonrental Houseboats
$20.00 Mirror (self installed)
$100.00 Swim Ladder Interlock System
$103.50 Swim Ladder Interlock System Installation
$223.50 Total
Table B estimates total implementation cost from the implementation cost per private (nonrental) houseboat from Table A and USCGʼs estimate of $1500 per rental house- boat. Vessel population data comes from the proposal. Propeller Guard Information Center Page 3
Table B Total Implementation Cost per USCG and NMMA Data
Boat Implementation Number of Total Cost Type Cost per Houseboat Houseboats
Rental $1,500.00 5,000 $7,500,000.00
Nonrental $223.50 95,000 $21,232,500.00
Totals 100,000 $28,732,500.00
Total implementation cost per USCG and NMMA data from Table B is used in Table C to estimate the average implementation cost per houseboat.
Table C Estimate of Average Implementation Cost per USCG and NMMA Data
Total Implementation Number of Average Implementation Cost Houseboats Cost per Houseboat
$28,732,500.00 100,000 $287.33
Using their own data, average implementation cost per houseboat is less than $300 per houseboat, not the $1,500 per houseboat stated by USCG. Similarly, the total implementation cost is approximately $29 million, not the $150 million stated by USCG.
Our own estimates, detailed in this report, calculate an average implementation cost of less than $200 per houseboat and a total implementation cost of less than $20 million.
USCG failed to recognize 95 percent of all houseboats subject to this proposed rule only require a mirror and a swim ladder interlock system to comply. That error led to a greatly inflated implementation cost estimate which caused the proposed regulation to be withdrawn. Propeller Guard Information Center Page 4
Critical Finding 2: U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) Office of Advocacy said USCG acted in error when they found the proposal would not have a signifi- cant economic impact on small businesses and as a result, the rule could be challenged in court. USCG cited SBAʼs challenge as a major factor in withdrawal of the proposal. SBAʼs comments included at least 15 major errors (see page 116), including using the wrong data set in their financial calculations. This report proves SBAʼs challenge was absolutely groundless.
SBA Office of Advocacy conducted a brief financial impact analysis and challenged:
“The Office of Advocacy asserts that the proposal fails to comply with the requirements of the RFA (Regulatory Flexibility Act) and the Administrative Protection Act (APA) and recommends withdrawal of the proposal for further analysis.”
SBA contends the proposed regulation would have significant impact on small busi- nesses (houseboat rental operations). USCG performed a brief analysis of the financial impact of the proposed rule. Using those results and the authority granted them under RFA Section 605, USCG certified the proposed regulation would not have a significant economical impact on small businesses. SBA contends USCGʼs certification was “arbi- trary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with the law” and as such, would not withstand an APA challenge. Per SBA, if the rule were issued, a houseboat rental operation could challenge the rule in court and have it set aside based on USCGʼs unlawful certification.
This report shows the economic impact analysis conducted by SBA contained at least 15 major errors (see page 116), including using the wrong data set in their financial cal- culations. The actual economic impact of the proposal on small businesses was only a small fraction of that calculated by SBA. SBAʼs own analysis was by their own definition, “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with the law”. USCG should not hesitate to reintroduce NPRM 10163 due to SBAʼs false claims.
To: National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) Houseboat Industry Association (HIA) U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy (SBA)
We identified many major errors in your public comments on the proposed rule. We strongly encourage NMMA, HIA, and SBA to acknowledge to us, in writing, the errors we identified in your submissions (NMMA/HIA errors listed on page 101, SBA errors listed on page 116) so those errors will not be perpetuated in the fu- ture, or to provide materials supporting those statements if you feel they were not made in error. We will place your acknowledgements and/or materials support- ing your statements on the web site dedicated to this report. If you elect not to re- spond, your inaction will result in even more propeller deaths and injuries as decisions continue to be made based upon the errors in your submissions.
We also encourage written responses from Mercury Marine and others to the errors we found in their comments. Propeller Guard Information Center Page 5
Note to Readers: This report covers a complicated subject and few will find it easy to read. It discusses the economic justification of the proposed rule. To determine its eco- nomic justification, we:
1. Develop houseboat population data for a total of twelve segments. We segment houseboats by rental/nonrental, number of engines (0 to 3), and presence of a fly- bridge helm. These variables also determine the type and number of emergency igni- tion cut-off switches (EICOS) required.
2. Develop and compare costs for each approach put forth by the proposal for each of the twelve segments.
3. Investigate injury and fatality data in great detail, including comparing our accident and fatality counts with accident data compiled by others.
4. Investigate how monetary values were assigned to injuries and fatalities and what those values should have been.
5. Separate the analysis of rental and nonrental houseboats due to their different re- quirements under the proposal.
These facts are addressed in great detail to accurately assess the economic justification of the proposed rule. The report also reviews and refutes industry comments in minute detail.
We contend insufficient attention to the details above led to withdrawal of the proposed regulation. We extended a tremendous amount of effort to bring this information to- gether and encourage all involved with propeller safety to study it.
We warn you in advance, it will take considerable time and effort to fully understand this report. A list of abbreviations is provided as the last page.
We direct those with minimal reading time to the Summary of Our Findings immedi- ately proceeding the Appendix.
The proposed rule was withdrawn well over two years ago. Writing and documenting this report has taken many hundreds of hours. We completed it as quickly as possible with our limited funds and resources.
Thank you for your interest in propeller safety. We also thank those who helped edit the paper, called errors and omissions to our attention, and commented on our rough drafts. We especially appreciate those with opposing views who supplied their comments.
We continue to welcome any comments, questions, or corrections you may have. Please email them to: [email protected]
Gary Polson
Propeller Guard Information Center Propeller Guard Information Center Page 6
Table of Contents
Two Critical Findings - 2 Note to Readers - 5
Introduction - 10 Houseboat Statistics - 12 Some Boats Will Not Need Modifications - 13 Single Engine Population - 14 Engine Types - 14 Rental Houseboat Flybridge Frequency - 15 Our Estimates Are Defendable - 19
USCG Objections - 21 USCG Objection 1. Reconsideration of the Costs That Would Likely Result - 22 Switch to Most Expensive Option - 23 Industry Representatives Present Higher Costs - 24 Actual Costs - 24 Cost of Propeller Guards - 24 Cost of the Three Other Devices - 25 EICOS Issues on Rental Houseboats - 26 Costs for Each Houseboat Segment - 26 Calculating Total Cost of Compliance - 27 Other Cost of Implementation Estimates - 29 USCG Estimate - 29 NMMA/HIA Estimate - 32 SBA Estimate - 34 May 2002 USCG Meeting Estimate - 34 April 2007 NBSAC Meeting Estimate - 34 Comparison of Estimates - 35 USCG Objection 2. Characteristics of the Safety Measures to be Required - 36 USCG Objection 3. Uncertainty Concerning the Appropriate Definition of “Houseboat” - 38
Process for Evaluating Economic Justification of the NPRM - 39 Components of Economical Justification - 40 Estimating the Number Killed and Injured - 41 Placing a Value on Human Life - 42 Placing a Value on Injuries - 45 Additional Considerations - 47 Objections Raised in Public Comments (PC) - 48 PC Objection 1. Insufficient Casualties to Justify the Proposed Rule - 49 Accidents Continue to be Misclassified - 51 Under Reporting of Accidents - 52 Common Practice in Accounting for Under Reporting of Accidents - 54 USCG Failed to Account for Under Reporting - 55 USCG Incentive Not to Report - 56 Industry Incentive Not to Report - 57 Casualties Do Justify the Rule - 58 Public Misled by USCG Annual Statistics - 59 PC Objection 2. Higher Costs to Implement Than Estimated - 62 Propeller Guard Information Center Page 7
PC Objection 3. Maintenance Costs Associated With Propeller Guards - 63 PC Objection 4. Danger of Collisions When Swim Ladder Interlocks Disable Propellers - 64 PC Objection 5. Lack of Practical Benefit From Clear Aft View Devices Due to Length - 66 PC Objection 6. The Rule Would be Unenforceable or Otherwise Ineffective - 66 PC Objection 7. Imprecise Definition of a Houseboat - 66 PC Objection 8. Need Detailed Guidance on Acceptable Propeller Guards & Interlocks - 67 PC Objection 9: Proposed Rule Shifts Liability From Boat Operators to Manufacturers - 68 Vacation Environment - 68 The Mother Ship - 68 Boater Fatigue & Alcohol - 69 Propeller Warning Signs Are Not the Answer - 69 Industry Changes Position on Obviousness of the Hazard & Creates Warning Label - 70 Sequence of Events for a Warning Sign or Label to be Effective - 74 Interlocks Make Warnings More Effective - 75 Education is Not the Answer - 76
A Review of the Objections - 78
Errors Introduced by Industry - 79 NMMA / HIA Comments - 80 NMMA and HIA Used as Mouthpiece - 81 SBREFA Review - 82 NMMA/HIA Cost Estimate - 83 Our Challenge to NMMA/HIA - 84 Examples of Inflated Component Costs - 88 NMMA/HIA Accident Data - 88 Actual BARD Boat Type=”Houseboat” Accident Count Data - 90 Differences Between NMMA/HIA and PGIC Accident Counts - 92 More Accidents Not on the NMMA/HIA List - 97 Accident Trends & Risk Reduction - 98 No Single Failure - 99 The Setting Makes a Difference - 99 Education - 100 Summary of NMMA and HIAʼs Errors - 101
SBA Advocacy Comments - 102 Small Business Calculation Errors - 104 Accident Count Errors - 108 SBA Comments Scripted by Big Business - 113 SBA Comments Received After Deadline - 115 Summary of SBA Advocacy Errors - 116 The APA Challenge is Defused - 117
Mercury Marine Comments - Joe Pomeroy - 118 Accident Counts - 118 Pomeroy Says Prop Accidents Are Reported - 122 Litigation Testing - 126 Mercury Marine Prop Buddy Test: An Example of Litigation Testing - 126 Mercury Makes No Attempts to Improve Existing Guards - 129 Industry Choses Legal Defense Over Use of Safety Devices - 131 Todayʼs Legal Defense - 133 Propeller Guard Information Center Page 8
Mercury Marine Comments - Richard Snyder - 134 Potential Blunt Trauma Solution: Trim Cylinder Trail Out - 135 Increased Guard Diameter - 136 Entrapment - 136 Drag - 137 Accident Statistics - 138 Guards Can Work - 138
Lake Powell Comments - 139 Objections to Single Source Provider - 141 Lake Powell is Not a Small Business - 143
Bridge Bay Resort Comments - 144
Coordinated Comments - 145
Rental Houseboats Only - 147
Statement to the U.S. Coast Guard - 150
Accuracy of Accident Data - 151
Identifiability Bias - 153
To Those Who Dispute Our Findings - 154
Summary of Our Findings - 155