WHITE PAPER JULY 2017 SHIFTING GEARS: THE EFFECTS OF A FUTURE DECLINE IN DIESEL MARKET SHARE ON TAILPIPE CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS IN EUROPE Sonsoles Díaz, Josh Miller, Peter Mock, Ray Minjares, Susan Anenberg, Dan Meszler www.theicct.org
[email protected] BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank the reviewers of this report for their guidance and constructive comments, with special thanks to Anup Bandivadekar, John German, Uwe Tietge, Dan Rutherford and two anonymous reviewers. For additional information: International Council on Clean Transportation Europe Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin +49 (30) 847129-102
[email protected] | www.theicct.org | @TheICCT © 2017 International Council on Clean Transportation Funding for this work was generously provided by the ClimateWorks Foundation and Stiftung Mercator. SHIFTING GEARS: THE EFFECTS OF A FUTURE DECLINE IN DIESEL MARKET SHARE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Diesel vehicles currently account for more than half of new light-duty vehicle registrations in Europe. Previous ICCT analyses of the costs of attaining more stringent CO2 emission standards assumed a constant diesel market share in future years. However, the diesel market share in Europe could decrease in future years as a result of a combination of forces, including changing consumer choices in the wake of the defeat device scandal; vehicle manufacturers shifting away from diesel technology in response to tighter NOX emission standards and real-driving emissions testing; availability of cheaper and more powerful electric and hybrid cars; and government programs to discourage diesel vehicle use (e.g., by restricting their circulation, or increasing taxes on diesel fuel). A decreasing market share of diesel passenger cars could have broad implications for the cost of attaining CO2 emission targets and the magnitude of fleetwide NOX emissions.