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Rates Spike but Credit Remains Calm: Spreads Are Tighter As Primary Remains Open

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Rates Spike but Credit Remains Calm: Spreads Are Tighter As Primary Remains Open FEBRUARY 3 2018 ISSUE 2219 www.ifre.com Rates spike but credit remains calm: spreads are tighter as primary remains open Evergrande risks Asia’s equity-linked party as HK$18bn convert struggles over the line Blackstone lines up US$14bn of debt to buy IFR (plus majority of TR’s F&R division) RESTRUCTURING DERIVATIVES BONDS EQUITIES Noble Group Hedge fund 'REECEûTOûTESTû First European WORKOUTûTOûINmICTû seeks damages appetite with )0/SûOFûûmOPû MASSIVEûHAIRCUTû over Hovnanian seven-year ASûONLYûONEûPRICESû on bondholders CDS ‘fraud’ COMEBACKûDEAL ATûLAUNCHûTERMS 06 06 08 09 AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE The Thomson Reuters IFR Awards Dinner Guaranteed Securities due January 2018 £1,010,000 Bookrunner JP Morgan £500,000 Senior Co-Lead Managers BNP Paribas Citigroup HSBC Co-Lead Managers Deutsche Bank Credit Agricole Goldman Sachs UBS Co-Managers Barclays Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley Royal Bank of Canada Thomson Reuters UniCredit Citadel Securities Nomura Wells Fargo Daiwa MUFG We would also like to thank all those who made personal donations totalling £22,810 Total Since Inception £26,631,621 Registered Charity Number: 213890 IFR salutes the financial community for its fantastic generosity and congratulates the award winners and all who contributed to making our annual awards dinner such a memorable occasion. www.IFRAwards.com #IFRAwards Upfront OPINION INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW Bullying tactics OPERATORû-,0ûnûHADûTOûBEûREVISEDûANDûCONTINUESûINTOûTHISû week. vergrande’s latest capital markets outing is a stark Pricing Turkish IPOs is traditionally tricky so such Eexample of the kind of bullying tactics investors often DIFlCULTIESûAREûEASILYûBRUSHEDûOFF have to put up with in Asia. 4HEû-ETROVACESAûmOPûISûMOREûOFûAûCAUSEûFORûCONCERN û The Chinese property developer launched its latest assault ESPECIALLYûCONSIDERINGûTWOûDOMESTICûPEERSûmOATEDûINûTHEûPASTûû on the capital markets on Tuesday, asking convertible bond months so there could hardly be better clarity on the investor investors to lend it US$3bn with no maturity date and a base and likely valuation. Indeed, that is precisely the point: conversion premium of up to 60%. BANKERSûKNEWûPRECISELYûWHEREûTOûPRICEûTHEûDEALûlRSTûTIMEû4HEYû Those terms are aggressive by any measure, even ignoring JUSTûCOULDNTûCONVINCEûTHEûCLIENTûTOûTAKEûTHEIRûADVICE the fact that the stock is up over 400% in the past 12 months. It is particularly frustrating that while Europe stutters the But this approach to fundraising is straight out of US market is booming, with 20 IPOs priced in January raising Evergrande’s play-book. 53BNûnûAûRECORDûSTARTûTOûTHEûYEAR Straight debt investors know Evergrande well, and will Investors are awash with cash as more than US$100bn has remember the oversized high-yield bonds the company sold mOWEDûINTOûEQUITYûFUNDSûTHISûYEARûANDûAREûPUTTINGûITûTOûWORKû last June, raising more than US$8bn through a combination even as markets trade at record highs. of exchange offers and new issues. )TûISûCLEARûNONETHELESSûTHATûSELLERSûWHOûGETûCARRIEDûAWAYûnû The company got its money, but the deal tumbled by as ANDûIGNOREûWHATûINVESTORSûAREûTELLINGûTHEMûnûWILLûBEûSHUNNEDû MUCHûASûlVEûPOINTSûINûSECONDARYûTRADINGûAFTERûTHEûISSUERû And rightly so. STUNNEDûTHEûMARKETûWITHûAûFARûLARGERûlNANCINGûTHANûINVESTORSû had expected. Evergrande is used to having things its own way in the 2023 or bust CAPITALûMARKETS ûEVENûlGHTINGûOFFûAûCHALLENGEûFROMûSHORT sellers in 2012. Its stock and bonds have been on a tear over ust as Jamie Dimon was pledging last week to continue the past year, despite lingering concerns over its aggressive JRUNNINGû*0û-ORGANûFORûANOTHERûlVEûYEARSûANDûONûTHEûSAMEû lNANCINGûSTRUCTUREûANDûLOWûJUNKûCREDITûRATING day as the bank was picking up its Bank of the Year gong at 4HISûTIMEûAROUND ûHOWEVER û#"ûINVESTORSûREJECTEDûTHEûTERMSû THEû)&2ûAWARDSûEVENING ûTHEûVALUEûOFû*0û-ORGANûBROKEû almost immediately. THROUGHû53BNûFORûTHEûlRSTûTIME The six bookrunners then had to rethink the structure, and The value of a boss can be measured in many ways, but relaunched the deal with revised terms a few hours later. perhaps the easiest is via its share price. In his 12 years in charge, Investors ended up with a far sweeter proposition, with a JP Morgan’s market value has almost trebled from US$139bn. lXEDûMATURITY ûLOWERûPREMIUM ûSMALLERûSIZEûANDûAûPUTûOPTIONû 4HATSûINCLUDEDûWEATHERINGûTHEûlNANCIALûCRISIS ûAûTRADINGû instead of a call. scandal and Dimon’s own health worries. Citigroup was a 4HEûlNALû(+BNû53BN ûlVE YEARûCONVERTIBLEûISûSTILLû bigger bank when Dimon started, but now has barely half Asia’s biggest equity-linked deal of the year so far. But the JPM’s value after a 15% drop. Others have fared far worse, or climbdown during bookbuilding showed that even the gone belly up. mighty Evergrande needs to show the markets some respect. The risk for Dimon is that he overstays his welcome. For other wannabe heavyweights, the message is clear: Twelve years in charge is a good innings; 17 may be pushing bullying doesn’t pay. your luck. Another risk is a botched succession. Dimon has been criticised for casting off rivals, or offering them little hope of Another bully taking his throne. Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith now appear front-runners vergrande wasn’t the only issuer believing it could dictate to succeed Dimon, but by 2023 both will be in their 60s. A Eterms to equity investors last week. BETTERûBETûMAYûBEûlNANCEûCHIEFû-ARIANNEû,AKE ûPOTENTIALLYû In the case of Metrovacesa’s IPO, bankers on the deal said MAKINGûHERûTHEûlRSTûFEMALEûINûCHARGEûOFûONEûOFûTHEûBIGû53û the sellers ignored feedback from investors who demanded a banks. And a Brit at that. discount to net asset value. Instead, the company insisted on The timing and candidate could still come down to pricing at a premium. Dimon’s political aspirations. Chatter insists that he could Investors reacted by closing their wallets and steering clear TAKEûAûRUNûATûTHEû7HITEû(OUSEûINû ûALTHOUGHûHISûLATESTû of the Spanish home-builder. COMMENTSûPERHAPSûSHOWûHEûHASûCOOLEDûONûTHATûIDEAûnûASûDOESû 7HENûTHEûBOOKSûCLOSEDûWITHOUTûSUFlCIENTûDEMANDûONû perhaps the announcement that JP Morgan is to team up 4HURSDAYûTHEûDEALûWASûQUICKLYûREVIVEDûWITHûJUSTûONEûCHANGEûnû WITHû!MAZONûANDû"ERKSHIREû(ATHAWAYûTOûIMPROVEûHEALTHCAREû pricing at a discount to NAV. for their US employees. -ETROVACESAûWASûTHEûlRSTû%UROPEANû)0/ûOFûûBUTûNOTûTHEû Whenever he decides to leave, he will go with the only one to struggle. shareholder cheers ringing in his ears. But it is clear that his /FûTWOû4URKISHûmOATSûTHATûFOLLOWEDûTHEûNEXTûDAY û%NERJISAû ultimate gift to those shareholders will be handing over to a %NERJIûWENTûTHROUGHûBUTûTHEûOTHERûûnûFORûPRIVATEûHOSPITALû person able to take his bank from strength to strength. International Financing Review February 3 2018 1 Rabiou, 19 months old, Niger - Talitha Brauer/Save the Children Brauer/Save Talitha Niger - 19 months old, Rabiou, THANK YOU FOR TRANSFORMING CHILDREN’S LIVES Thanks to the incredible generosity of the guests at the 2017 IFR Awards Dinner, we are pleased to announce that £1,032,810 was raised to help children wherever and whenever they need us most. Your support means that we can help children like Rabiou, 19 months, who was treated for malnutrition at a Save the Children funded stabilisation centre in Niger. Save the Children believes every child deserves a future. Around the world, we give children a healthy start in life, the opportunity to learn and protection from harm. Thank you for your continued support which makes our life-saving work possible. IFR is proud to support Save the Children. The IFR Awards are part of the Thomson Reuters Awards for #ifrawards Excellence, which recognise corporate and individual success in the global finance industry. Registered charity England and Wales (213890) Scotland (SC039570) savethechildren.org.uk INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW Contents FEBRUARY 3 2018 ISSUE 2219 TOP NEWS 04 BONDS Spike Sell-off in government bonds accelerated last week, but credit seems calm with spreads still at tight levels and primary market open for business. 04 STRUCTURED EQUITY Pause for thought Evergrande’s HK$18bn convert struggles over the line, potentially knocking the wind out of Asia’s equity-linked party. 05 RESTRUCTURING Haircut Noble Group’s proposed reworking is set to inflict massive losses on creditors collectively holding more than US$3bn of outstanding debt. 06 DERIVATIVES Courts Hedge fund Solus is seeking damages over Hovnanian’s controversial debt swap after a judge allowed the transaction to go ahead. 06 Loans/Bonds Blackstone lines up US$14bn of debt to buy IFR. 07 Bonds Greece to test appetite with seven-year comeback deal. 08 Equities First European IPOs of 2018 flop with valuation cuts needed. 09 People & Markets Eurozone lags behind in changing post-Libor reference rates. 10 PEOPLE & Dilemma Deutsche Bank lifts pay by 8% despite 15% revenue fall, raising 15 MARKETS questions about the effectiveness of its cost-cutting efforts. Stressed Europe’s banks will face their toughest “stress test” this year, including the impact of a hard Brexit, an economic slump, and a shock to markets. 19 Scrapped Eurex has ended plans for a derivatives clearing and exchange hub in Singapore, planning instead to extend trading hours in Europe. 21 Heating up Lazard sees M&A increasing in Europe, and is particularly bullish on France. 22 Taking time Delays likely to debt restructuring of Norwegian oil drilling company Seadrill. 24 Broader universe India takes steps to deepen its corporate bond market.
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