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Projection of Riverine Flooding on Government Healthcare Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due to Climate Change

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Projection of Riverine Flooding on Government Healthcare Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due to Climate Change Kamesh et al., An Overview 2018, 6:4 DOI: 10.4172/2327-4581.1000192 Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview Research Article A SciTechnol Journal Projection of Riverine Flooding Keywords Flood; Flood vulnerability; Riverine flood projection; River basin; on Government Healthcare Healthcare facilities; Climate change; HEC-RAS; Geographic Information System (GIS); Malaysia Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due To Climate Change Introduction Kamesh R1*, Bala S1, Rafiza 1S , Nadia M1,Zaki M2,Marini Malaysia is a country prone to flood risks, mostly by nature of its M2,Amri M2, Nurul M2, Huang YF3, Anis K4, Norlen M4, Norbizura physical (topography and drainage) as well as its human geography A4, Rohaida I4, Thahirahtul Z4 and Yazid K4 (settlement and land use patterns). The combination of natural (heavy monsoon rainfall, intense convection rain storms) and human factors has produced different types of floods, namely monsoon, flash and Abstract tidal [1]. Monsoon and flash floods are the most severe climate- related natural disasters in Malaysia. The leading cause of floods is Objective: Vulnerability of healthcare facilities (HCF’s) in Malaysia due to flooding from climate change impacts is understudied. This heavy rainfall of long duration or of high intensity, creating high study aims to identify the flood prone government HCF’s due to runoff in rivers or a build-up of surface water in areas of low relief. climate change. Rainfall over long periods may produce a gradual but persistent rise in river levels that in turn causes rivers to inundate surrounding land Projection of 100-year Return Period riverine flooding at Methods: for days or weeks at a time. baseline or current condition, 2030 and 2050 was done through hydrodynamic modelling. The location of government HCF’s in Past flood events are based on statistical descriptors (i.e. flood terms of longitude, latitude and elevation was determined by using severity), spatiotemporal descriptors (i.e. flood magnitude) and also the Geographic Information System and later overlaid with the on socio-economical descriptors (i.e. the extent of flood damage, flood maps produced by the National Hydraulic Research Institute human casualties, psychological impact). There are basically four of Malaysia (NAHRIM). Projection of the 15 most vulnerable river types of flood events that can be generally characterized as extreme basins in Peninsular Malaysia was done based on IPCCC SRES- flood events, including dam-break floods [2-5] storm surges [6,7], AR4. flash floods [8-11], and extreme/large river floods [12-15]. Among Results: The river basin flood extent map projections were done at these types of extreme flood events, flash floods and large river floods Baseline, 2030 and 2050 associated with 100-year Return Period are the most common and generally the most serious extreme events for Flood Depth Levels (FDL) of 0.01 m-0.50 m, 0.50-1.2 m and >1.2 [16,17] which pose the greatest flood risk to the general population. m, respectively. The HCF’s were categorized as Community Health Clinics (CHC’s), Primary Health Clinics (PHC’s) and Hospitals. A River flow forecasting is an important yet difficult task in the field total of 1268 CHC’s, 520 PHC’s and 82 Hospitals were included of hydrology because predicting future events involves a decision- in this study. HCF’s in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan were making process where the ability to predict future river flow will excluded. At Baseline, 23 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 hospital were provide the right edge and assist the engineers in terms of flood projected to be flooded at Flood Depth Level (FDL) of 0.01-0.5 control management, and provide some benefits in the areas of m. FDL of 0.5-1.2 m estimated 31 CHC’s, 7 PHC’s and 1 Hospital water supply management [18-22]. Accurate continuous data and FDL>1.2 m estimated 54 CHC’s and 9 PHC’s being flooded. According to projections at 2030, FDL of 0.01-0.5 m estimated collections on the catchment area are needed to produce a good 31 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being flooded and FDL of river flow forecast. 0.5-1.2 m estimated 33 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being There have been many studies on flood vulnerability and threat affected. FDL of >1.2 m estimated 153 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and mapping using Remote Sensing Data and Geographical Information 1 Hospital being affected. Flood projections at 2050 with FDL 0.01-0.5 m estimated 24 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being System (GIS) tools [23]. Flood monitoring across the globe has been affected and FDL of 0.5 m-1.2 m affected 37 CHC’s, 7 PHC’s and done extensively by radar remote sensing data [2,24] and several of 2 Hospitals. FDL>1.2 m estimated 154 CHC’s, 51 PHC’s and 8 these studies have applied probabilistic methods [2,25,26]. Various Hospitals being affected. case studies have also applied GIS and neural network methods for flood vulnerability mapping [24,27]. However, studies involving Conclusion: This study enables stakeholders to assess vulnerability the application of computer based models utilizing risk assessment of flooding and plan adaptation measures necessary in anticipation of the impact of climate change on riverine flooding in Malaysia. software for the projection of flood in relation to climate change are still scarce and lacking in Malaysia [28]. Overall this study aimed to identify vulnerability of healthcare facilities to riverine flooding which would assist in further adaptations, *Corresponding author: Kamesh Rajendran, Medical Officer, Environmental Health Research Centre, Institute of Medical Research, Ministry of Health for providing continuous healthcare services even during the times of Malaysia, Jalan Pahang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Tel: +603-26162313; E-mail: the flood. The findings in this study should be of particular interest to [email protected] government departments (national and regional) and regulatory and Received: July 19, 2018 Accepted: August 10, 2018 Published: October 31, 2018 planning authorities, as the findings presented herein should help to All articles published in Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview are the property of SciTechnol, and is protected by International Publisher of Science, copyright laws. Copyright © 2018, SciTechnol, All Rights Reserved. Technology and Medicine Citation: Kamesh R, Bala S, Rafiza S, Nadia M, Zaki M, et al. (2018) Projection of Riverine Flooding on Government Healthcare Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due To Climate Change. Geoinfor Geostat: An Overview 6:4. doi: 10.4172/2327-4581.1000192 improve on the general flood hazard assessment data, and procedures clinics (CHC’s) were overlaid with the flood extent maps associated used for emergency health services, planning and infrastructure with 100-year Return Period for the time horizons of 2030 and 2050 assessment. produced by NAHRIM. Study Area Methodology Malaysia is located in South East Asia which lies between the The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) latitude 2º N and 7º N of the equator and longitude 99.5º E and 120º has conducted comprehensive studies to assess the impact of climate E. It also covers an area of approximately 329,750 km2, comprising change on the hydrologic conditions of Peninsular Malaysia [33,35] as of Peninsula Malaysia (West Malaysia) and the states of Sabah and well as for Sabah and Sarawak [34]. The latest study conducted in 2014 Sarawak (East Malaysia) which is located along the northwest coast was based on 15 climate projections for the 21st century by 3 different of Borneo Island. Malaysia is generally influenced by convective coupled land-atmosphere-ocean Global Climate Models (GCMs), rain and the rainfall distribution is greatly influenced by topography that are ECHAM5 of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology of and the monsoon winds [29-35]. There are 191 major river basins in Germany, CCSM3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Malaysia, which 144 river basins are prone to flood. In view of the (NCAR) of USA, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 of the Meteorological Research effects of climate change, NAHRIM has conducted detailed studies in Institute of Japan, based on four different IPCC AR4 greenhouse gas the 15 most socio-economically vulnerable river basins in Peninsular emission scenarios (A1FI, A2, A1B, B1). The climate projections were Malaysia, namely Muda, Kedah, Kerian, Selangor, Kesang, Muar, dynamically downscaled at hourly intervals and a fine 6 km × 6 km Batu Pahat, Johor, Pulai, Skudai, Tebrau, Pahang, Setiu, Dungun and spatial resolution by the Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Kelantan River basins (Figure 1). The coordinates of the government Malaysia (RegHCM-PM), which is a combination of mesoscale Hospitals (H), Primary health clinics (PHC’s) and Community health atmospheric model and regional land surface hydrology model that is Figure 1: Selected fifteen (15) flood prone river basins in Peninsular Malaysia for this study. Volume 6 • Issue 4 • 1000192 • Page 2 of 8 • Citation: Kamesh R, Bala S, Rafiza S, Nadia M, Zaki M, et al. (2018) Projection of Riverine Flooding on Government Healthcare Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due To Climate Change. Geoinfor Geostat: An Overview 6:4. doi: 10.4172/2327-4581.1000192 also able to capture the impact of steep topography on local climatic Coverage View (ArcView), Version 3.2 which was used for conditions [35]. visualisation. All outputs were transferred into ArcView and a flood project file (FLOOD.APR) was created for easy query, visualisation Ensemble average of the 15 scenarios of bias-corrected downscaled and mapping for the end user and research outcomes. The healthcare future rainfall was utilized for design flood modelling simulations. facilities reported in this study were all government healthcare The current (baseline) and future flood assessments were carried facilities registered as of the year 2015.
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