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Download Presentation Slides The path to recovery June 2021 Ordre du jour 1 Economic Outlook 2 What’s ahead 3 What to watch for BDC – The path to recovery 2 World economic outlook 3 COVID-19 has had a severe impact on the world economy 2020 change in GDP, % China 2.3 World -3.4 USA -3.5 Japan -4.8 Germany -5.3 Canada -5.4 India -7.4 France -8.2 Mexico -8.5 Italy -8.9 United Kingdom -9.9 BDC – The path to recovery SOURCE: OECD, March 2021 4 Strong economic growth expected in 2021 Real global GDP growth (%) 6.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.2 4.4 -3.3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f2021f 2022f SOURCES: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update (April 2021) f = forecast, e= estimate BDC – The path to recovery 5 Global industrial production has rebounded faster than in 2009 World industrial production, volume, base 100 = 2010 140 130 2009 crisis 2 years to return to 120 pre-crisis levels 110 100 2020 pandemic 11 months to return to 90 pre-crisis levels 80 SOURCE: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis BDC – The path to recovery 6 U.S. economic outlook 7 Strong economic growth expected in 2021 and 2022 GDP growth (%) 6.5 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.6 2.2 -3.5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f Note: e= estimate, f=forecast SOURCE: Oxford Economics, BDC calculation BDC – The path to recovery 8 The U.S. has one of the highest percentages of population vaccinated % of the population vaccinated, as of June 3, 2021 70 60 Partially vaccinated Fully vaccinated 50 20.0* 9.7 40 20.0 25.0 53.0 30 22.0* 20 41.0 39.0* 10 17.0* 21.0 20.0 6.4 0 France Italy Germany United States United Kingdom Canada SOURCE: Our World in Data *Data as of June 2nd BDC – The path to recovery 9 Vaccinations have kept cases low during the third wave Daily new COVID-19 cases per 1 million people, seven-day moving average 800 700 United States Canada World 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 SOURCE: Our World in Data, June 3, 2021 BDC – The path to recovery 10 The U.S. economy is benefiting from strong government programs American Rescue Plan $1.9 trillion Stimulus checks and better unemployment benefits Build Back Better Plan $2.0 trillion To rebuild infrastructure such as expending the rail system Clean Energy Revolution $2.0 trillion To support research and electric vehicles BDC – The path to recovery 11 American businesses are optimistic ISM Manufacturing PMI, United states 65 60 55 61.2 May 2021 50 45 40 2019/01 2019/04 2019/07 2019/10 2020/01 2020/04 2020/07 2020/10 2021/01 2021/04 SOURCE: Eikon BDC – The path to recovery 12 British Columbia Economic Outlook 13 Employment recovered in British Columbia Employment as a % of February 2020 level 99% 101 British Columbia 99 97 97% Canada 95 93 95% 91 U.S. 89 87 85 83 02/01 04/01 06/01 08/01 10/01 12/01 02/01 04/01 May 2021 SOURCE: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics BDC – The path to recovery 14 Employment in the hospitality sector is still far from full recovery May employment as % of February level, seasonally adjusted Public administration 113% Manufacturing 106% Information, arts and entertainment 104% Total 99% Transport and warehousing 98% Wholesale and retail trade 97% Finance 96% Construction 87% Accommodation and food services 78% Agriculture 74% Note: Statistics Canada BDC – The path to recovery 15 Despite remaining open, restaurants did not recover all their sales yet Food services and drinking places sales in BC, millions $, seasonally adjusted $1.1B 1,200 February 2020 -15% 1,100 1,000 900 800 $930M 700 March 2021 600 $430M 500 April 2020 400 2019/01 2019/04 2019/07 2019/10 2020/01 2020/04 2020/07 2020/10 2021/01 SOURCE: Statistics Canada. BDC – The path to recovery 16 Manufacturing sales reach record levels Manufacturing Sales, seasonally adjusted, billions $ 5.5 $5.4B 5.3 March 2021 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 $4.3B 3.7 February 2020 3.5 2019/01 2019/05 2019/09 2020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 SOURCE: Statistics Canada. BDC – The path to recovery 17 Wood manufacturing is booming as demand is high Manufacturing Sales, seasonally adjusted, base 100= February 2020 190 177 Wood manufacturing 170 150 130 110 117 90 Food manufacturing 70 2020/02 2020/04 2020/06 2020/08 2020/10 2020/12 2021/02 March SOURCE: Statistics Canada. 2021 BDC – The path to recovery 18 Other top sectors are also performing well Manufacturing Sales, seasonally adjusted, base 100= February 2020 145 133 Primary metal 135 manufacturing 133 125 Machinery 115 104 105 Paper 95 100 85 Fabricated metal 75 2020/02 2020/04 2020/06 2020/08 2020/10 2020/12 2021/02 March 2021 SOURCE: Statistics Canada. BDC – The path to recovery 19 Lumber became the top export of the province as the industry is booming Export growth Y/Y, British Columbia, top five export industries 120% Canada average: +5.1% 106.9% 100% 78.1% 80% 60% 40% 21.7% 21.9% 20% 1.2% 0% -2.8% -20% Coal Chemical Total BC Copper Natural gas Lumber Woodpulp SOURCE: Statistics Canada. Growth between January-March 2020 and January-March 2021 BDC – The path to recovery 20 Housing starts rebounded and are above average Housing starts, quarterly, thousands 14.5 10,1 Average 11.9 11.0 2015-2019 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.9 9.4 7.9 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 SOURCE: Statistics Canada BDC – The path to recovery 21 Home prices surged during the pandemic Residential property price index, base 100= 2017 121.1 125 Q1 2021 Vancouver CMA 120 Victoria CMA 115 110 105 112.6 Q1 2021 100 95 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 BDC – The path to recovery 22 SOURCE: Statistics Canada What’s ahead for 2021? Major economic growth expected for 2021 in Canada Canadian Annual Real GDP growth 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.9% -5.4% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f SOURCE: Oxford Economics and BDC f: forecast BDC – The path to recovery 24 60% of the population in BC has 1 received at least one vaccine dose Share of the total population that received at least one dose (%) 58% 70 60%* Canada British Columbia 58% 60 United Kingdom 50% 50 United States 40 44% Germany 30 40% Italy & France 20 10 8% Japan 0 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 2021/04 2021/05 SOURCE: Our World in Data, June 1, 2021 BDC – The path to recovery 25 * Data as of May 29, 2021 earlier but accelerated after that date.thatafter acceleratedbut earlier of 2008 recessionFor the 2020. SOURCE: preceding recession the preceding 100= month base adjusted, Columbia, seasonally in British sales Manufacturing in 2009 than faster is recovery The 105 115 125 75 85 95 Statistics Canada, n= month where the recession started. For 2020 pandemic, 100=Februarypandemic, 2020Forstarted. recession the where monthCanada,n= Statistics n-1 n n+1 Pandemic n+2 2020 April 85 n+3 n+4 2020 - 2009, 100=July 2008. The recession in the manufacturing sector started sector manufacturingthe in recessionThe 2008. 100=July 2009, n+5 n+6 n+7 n+8 n+9 2009 May 79 n+10 n+11 n+12 n+13 n+14 2021 March 126 n+15 n+16 n+17 n+18 n+19 n+20 n+21 of Recession n+22 2008 n+23 n+24 - n+25 2009 n+26 BDC n+27 – n+28 The path to recovery to path The n+29 n+30 n+31 n+32 n+33 2011 December n+34 n+35 n+36 n+37 n+38 n+39 96 n+40 26 2 Commodity prices are rising Monthly commodities price index, 2019 = 100 243 245 Energy 225 Metals and Minerals 205 Forestry 185 Agriculture 165 145 141 125 124 118 105 85 65 45 25 2019/01 2019/04 2019/07 2019/10 2020/01 2020/04 2020/07 2020/10 2021/01 2021/04 May 2021 Metals and minerals: gold, silver, nickel, copper, aluminum, zinc, potash, lead, iron Forestry: Pulp, lumber, newsprint Agriculture: potatoes, cattle, hogs, wheat, barley, canola, corn Energy: Coal, oil and natural gas BDC – The path to recovery 27 SOURCE: Bank of Canada commodity price index 3 Government policies will continue to support the recovery Key supports for businesses announced in the Federal Budget Business support programs Canada Emergency wage subsidy Extended and will end Canada Emergency rent subsidy in September 2021 Innovation programs Help support large-scale clean technology project with $1 billion Help support projects that will help reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emission with $8 billion through the Strategic Innovation Fund Support BDC to help small- and medium-sized businesses finance technology adoption BDC – The path to recovery 28 BC government also announced measures to support the recovery of the province Key fiscal stimulus announced by the BC government BC Recovery Benefit one time payment of $500 to $1000 for eligible families or individuals, until June 30, 2021 Launch online grant provides up to $7,500 to help businesses create an online shop and/or improve their e-commerce experience Small and Medium Sized Business Recovery Grant grants of $10,000 to $30,000 to support B.C.
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