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FSR-2019-Complete.Pdf Table of Contents Governor’s Message .................................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................. ii FSR Team ................................................................................................................................................................. iii Data Convention and Coverage ............................................................................................................................ iv The Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Box 1: COVID-19 Pandemic and the Policy Response ........................................................................ 7 Box 2: SBP’s Systemic Risk Survey-5th Wave (January 2020) ........................................................... 16 Box 3: SBP’s Initiatives to Strengthen Stability of the Financial Sector ........................................... 18 Chapter 1: Global and Domestic Macrofinancial Environment ..................................................................... 25 Chapter 2: Financial Markets’ Behavior .............................................................................................................. 34 Section A: Performance and Risk Analysis of Banking Sector ........................................................................ 44 Chapter 3.1: The Banking Sector.......................................................................................................................... 45 Box 3.1: Implications of Public Sector Exposure (PuSE) for Banks ................................................ 58 Chapter 3.2: Islamic Banking ................................................................................................................................ 68 Chapter 4: Resilience of the Banking Sector under Adverse Conditions ....................................................... 74 Section B: Performance and Risk Analysis of Non-Banking Financial Sector .............................................. 82 Chapter 5.1: Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) ................................................................................... 83 Chapter 5.2: Non-Bank Financial Institutions ................................................................................................... 88 Chapter 5.3: Insurance and Takaful Companies ................................................................................................ 93 Section C: Performance and Risk Analysis of Other Sectors ......................................................................... 100 Chapter 6: The Corporate Sector ....................................................................................................................... 101 Box 6.1: Credit riskiness of listed non-financial corporate firms ..................................................... 109 Chapter 7: Financial Market Infrastructures ..................................................................................................... 113 Appendix A............................................................................................................................................................ 121 Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................................... 124 Annexures .............................................................................................................................................................. 128 Governor’s Message This edition of the Financial Stability Review (FSR) is being released at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered global health and economic crises at a scale unmatched in recent history. All over the world, authorities are battling to save lives and protect the economic well-being of their population. Pakistan’s case is no exception. Prior to the pandemic, CY19 ended with green shoots of economic recovery becoming visible. The stabilization measures adopted helped rein in Pakistan’s external and fiscal imbalances and lowered uncertainty among the market participants. As a result, the exchange rate stabilized, foreign exchange reserves surged, the fiscal deficit improved, and economic activity, especially Large Scale Manufacturing, revived. Both local and foreign investors confidently took positions in the equity and bond markets. The stability of the financial sector improved over the year. The banking sector observed a healthy rise in profitability that further improved its solvency and resilience to shocks. Deposit growth recovered, enabling banks to expand their earning asset base. The non-bank financial sector also demonstrated a reasonable performance, with mutual funds witnessing net inflows. Likewise, the non-financial corporate sector— despite a dip in domestic sales and higher financial charges—preserved its profitability by improving operational efficiency. Thus, not only the economy but also the financial sector was in a much better position by the end of CY19. The COVID-19 outbreak, however, changed the scenario altogether. In order to contain the pandemic, the world moved towards a Great Lockdown, bringing large segments of the global economy to a halt. According to the IMF, the world output is likely to contract by 3 percent in 2020, making this economic downturn the worst since the Great Depression. As in other countries, the impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan is still unfolding. The country initially moved towards a partial lockdown, amid rising levels of infection. As a result, economic activity experienced slowdown. However, recent easing of restrictions could provide some respite. In order to limit risks and facilitate stakeholders, State Bank of Pakistan has taken a host of policy measures. Among others, these include substantial monetary easing, offering concessionary financing to save jobs, as well as for health care, SMEs and the export industry, deferring debt servicing, releasing macroprudential buffers, and reducing payment system related costs. A complete list of the measures taken is available on SBP’s website. Going forward, the recovery in the domestic economy will depend upon the severity and duration of the pandemic at home and abroad, as well as the efficacy of containment and revival measures adopted. In such fluid times, it gives us some comfort that capital buffers built over the years have enhanced the resilience of the banking sector, such that stress test results suggest the sector is relatively well-placed to absorb the adverse shocks that could emanate from COVID-19. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the future trajectory of the pandemic and its spillover effects on the economy and financial systems worldwide. As a result, SBP is keeping a close watch on developments and stands ready to take all policy actions necessary to safeguard the economy and financial stability. Dr. Reza Baqir Financial Stability Review, 2019 i Acknowledgements The Financial Stability Review (FSR) team is highly indebted to Dr. Reza Baqir, Governor, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for his encouragement and guidance. The team is also grateful to members of the Publications Review Committee (PRC) of the Board and PRC of Management for providing invaluable feedback on the report. We are also thankful to Dr. Murtaza Syed, Deputy Governor (Policy), Mr. Jameel Ahmad, Deputy Governor (Banking and FMRM) and Dr. Inayat Hussain, Executive Director, Banking Supervision Group, for their continuous support and supervision in the preparation of this report. The team would also like to thank various departments of SBP, especially Research Department (RD), Banking Policy and Regulations Department (BPRD), Offsite Supervision & Enforcement Department (OSED), Exchange Policy Department (EPD), Agricultural Credit & Microfinance Department (AC&MFD), Infrastructure, Housing & SME Finance Department (IH&SMEFD), Domestic Markets and Monetary Management Department (DMMD), Islamic Banking Department (IBD), Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Payment Systems Department (PSD) and Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD) for their valuable feedback and support. We are also grateful to the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), National Clearing Company of Pakistan (NCCPL), Mutual Funds Association of Pakistan (MUFAP) and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for providing relevant data, technical information and comments on the relevant chapters/sections of the report. Publication Review Committee of the Board of Directors Mr. Muhammad Saleem Sethi Mr. Azam Faruque Publication Review Committee of the Management Dr. Murtaza Syed (Chairman) Dr. Inayat Hussain Syed Irfan Ali Syed Samar Hasnain Muhammad Ali Malik Dr. Ali Choudhary Muhammad Javaid Ismail Dr. Mahmood ul Hasan Khan Dr. M. Farooq Arby Dr. Omar Farooq Saqib Dr. Azizullah Khattak ii Financial Stability Review, 2019 FSR Team Team Leaders Muhammad Javaid Ismail, Director – Financial Stability Department Dr. Asif Ali, Additional Director – Financial Stability Department Team Members Anum Naeem Aqeel Ahmed Aqid Hussain Dr. Jameel Ahmed Faraz Karim Haris Ali Mariam Abbas Muhammad Moaiz Siddiqui Mohammad Abdul Rehman Ansari Muhammad Sadiq Ansari Qaisar Mehmood
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