Res earc her Published by CQ Press, a Division of SAGE CQ www.cqresearcher.com Aging Population Can the U.S. support its growing ranks of elderly?

he oldest of the 78 million Americans born during the post-World War II baby boom generation are turning 65 this year, while the share of the popula - T tion older than 85 is growing even faster. The flood of elderly Americans is putting severe financial stress on programs that benefit older citizens. The number of people covered under Medicare will increase by more than 30 million over the next 20 years. So far, congressional proposals for constraining Medicare spending have encountered stiff resistance. But economists say the

country’s deficits will become unmanageable if entitlement programs A hospice patient in Lakewood, Colo., releases a dove as part of an animal therapy program designed to aren’t scaled back. The United States is not aging as rapidly as increase happiness for terminally ill residents. The growing number of aging and elderly Americans is other developed countries and will continue to have a growing putting programs for the elderly under financial stress. population of working-age people. But as longevity and spending I on health care increase, many seniors will outlive their retirement N THIS REPORT savings. S THE ISSUES ...... 579 I BACKGROUND ...... 586 D CHRONOLOGY ...... 587 E CURRENT SITUATION ...... 591 CQ Researcher • July 15, 2011 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ...... 593 Volume 21, Number 25 • Pages 577-600 OUTLOOK ...... 594 RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 597 EXCELLENCE N AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD THE NEXT STEP ...... 598 AGING POPULATION CQ Re search er

July 15, 2011 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 21, Number 25

• Should Americans work More Americans Expect to MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri [email protected] 579 longer? 580 Delay Retirement • Will health care for the One-fifth of workers expect to ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch elderly bankrupt the U.S.? retire later than planned. [email protected] • Will the young and old CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: Thomas J. Colin fight over resources? 581 Workers Gloomy About [email protected] Retirement Prospects ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kenneth Jost BACKGROUND One-fourth lack confidence in a secure retirement. STAFF WRITERS: Marcia Clemmitt, Peter Katel Living Longer CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Sarah Glazer, 586 One-fourth of Americans 582 Cities Struggle to Meet Alan Greenblatt, Barbara Mantel, Tom Price, may be over 65 by 2030. Growing Needs of Elderly Jennifer Weeks Lack of jobs is biggest DESIGN /P RODUCTION EDITOR: Olu B. Davis obstacle. ‘Fertility Splurge’ ASSISTANT EDITOR: Darrell Dela Rosa 586 About 78 million children U.S. Population Growing FACT CHECKER: Michelle Harris were born from 1946-1964. 584 Grayer A record 40 million Americans INTERNS : Daniel Bauer, Benjamin Woody The Baby Bust are age 65 or older. 589 Americans had fewer chil - dren after the baby boom. Elderly a Growing Share 585 of Electorate ‘Sandwich’ Generation The proportion of the elec - 590 Ten million adults over 50 torate 65 and older may top care for their parents. 30 percent by 2050. A Division of SAGE Chronology PRESIDENT AND PUBLISHER: CURRENT SITUATION 587 Key events since 1946. John A. Jenkins DIRECTOR, REFERENCE SOLUTIONS: Financial Insecurity 588 Minority Youths Are Rising Todd Baldwin 591 Most people will rely on Demographic Force Social Security. Some fear disconnect between young blacks, Hispanics and Copyright © 2011 CQ Press, a Division of SAGE. older whites. SAGE reserves all copyright and other rights herein, 591 Automatic Enrollment unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. No part of this The administration favors At Issue publication may be reproduced electronically or auto matic savings plans. 593 Should the retirement age be otherwise, without prior written permission. Un- raised? au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis sion of SAGE copy - Government Cutbacks right ed material is a violation of federal law car ry ing 591 A dozen states have altered civil fines of up to $100,000. workers’ pension plans. FOR FURTHER RESEARCH CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc. Math and Politics For More Information 592 596 Organizations to contact. CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid- Union leaders blame legis - free paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (May wk. 4) latures for not adequately Bibliography (July wks. 1, 2) (Aug. wks. 2, 3) (Nov. wk. 4) and funding retirement plans. 597 Selected sources used. (Dec. wks. 4, 5), by CQ Press, a division of SAGE. Annual full-service subscriptions start at $803. For pric - The Next Step ing, call 1-800-834-9020. To purchase a CQ Researcher OUTLOOK 598 Additional articles . report in print or electronic format (PDF), visit www. cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start Political Prospects Citing CQ Researcher at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights 594 “The two parties are kind 599 Sample bibliography formats. licensing are also available. Pe ri od i cals post age paid of locked in cement.” at Wash ing ton, D.C., and ad di tion al mailing of fic es. POST MAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search - er , 2300 N St., N.W., Suite 800, Wash ing ton, DC 20037. Cover: Getty Images/John Moore

578 CQ Researcher Aging Population BY ALAN GREENBLATT

niors — which will be much THE ISSUES higher than population growth among young and working- ames Kempthorne is run - age Americans — will lead to ning out of money. “He changes across society, in - J saved, or thought he was cluding pressures on the work - saving, for retirement,” force and federal budget. 4 says his son, Dirk, a former That’s despite the fact that Republican governor of the United States is aging less Idaho. “He thought he rapidly than other developed would be okay, even if he nations, such as Germany, lived to be 90.” Italy, Spain and Japan. By But on the 4th of July, the 2015, the population of senior Kempthorne turned 96. working-age people — typi - “His savings are gone, and cally defined as those be - his only source of income is tween ages 15 and 64 — will Social Security — Social Se - begin to decline throughout curity and a couple of sons,” the developed world, with the Dirk Kempthorne says. United States as the sole major As the proud patriarch of a exception. successful family, James “The demographics are Kempthorne isn’t happy about obviously more favorable having to rely on his children than just about anywhere else g

for help. But he’s not alone. n in the rich world,” says o

Nearly 10 million adult children W Richard Jackson, who directs

x

over age 50 in the United States e the Global Aging Initiative at l A

provide care or financial help / the Center for Strategic and s

1 e to their aging parents. g International Studies, a think a m

Such numbers are only I tank in Washington. “We have

y t going to grow. The oldest t an aging population, but at e members of the baby boom G the end of the day, when generation — 78 million Activists on Capitol Hill urge lawmakers on April 15 not the last of the boomers have Americans born between to cut Medicare, the federal government’s health passed on to that great Wood - insurance program for the elderly and disabled. The same 1946 and 1964 — are turn - day, however, the majority-Republican House approved a stock in the sky, we’ll be ing 65 this year. The sheer budget plan that would rein in Medicare costs. Democrats about as old as Japan and number of them means that oppose the plan and intend to use it as a campaign issue Italy are today. And we’ll one will turn 65 every 8 sec - in 2012. Economists say entitlement programs must be have a growing population onds until 2030. 2 scaled back to control the country’s deficit. and not a stagnant or a de - But the population of the clining one.” “old old” — those over age 85 — is “I assume that most people would But the United States has a major growing, proportionately, faster. Ameri - like to live a long, full life, and that’s problem those other countries don’t ca has the largest number of centenar - increasingly possible,” says John Rother, have. Spending on health care is far ians in the world, at 72,000 — a total policy director at AARP, the major ad - greater here than in other developed that has doubled over the past 20 years vocacy group for seniors, formerly countries and will only rise with the and will at least double again by 2020, known as the American Association of aging of the population. 5 according to the Census Bureau. 3 Retired Persons. “Advances in health care “We look as though our problem That’s the result of good news: in - make that more likely for people.” is very affordable, relative to other creased life expectancy that stems Still, Rother acknowledges that a good countries,” says Neil Howe, president from improved medicine and nutrition deal of concern exists about the chal - of LifeCourse Associates, a demo - and a drastic decline over recent lenges posed by the aging population. graphics consulting firm in Great Falls, decades in infant mortality. The rapid growth in the number of se - Va., and author of several books about

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 579 AGING POPULATION

trist think tank in Washington, Amer - More Americans Expect to Delay Retirement icans are healthier than 30 years ago. One-fifth of American workers say they expect to retire later than But there’s been an increase since the planned — a lower percentage than in 2009 and 2010, but higher late 1990s in the number of Ameri - cans in their late 40s or 50s who are than when the economy was stronger in 2002. disabled or suffer ailments that make it harder for them to work. Workers Expecting to Retire “We’re seeing increases in the num - Later Than Planned, 2002-2011 ber of handicapped people in late (percentage) middle age, mostly because of obesi - 25% ty and sedentary lifestyles,” says de - mographer Phillip Longman of the New 20

k America Foundation, a liberal think c o t tank in Washington. “Here we have S

15 l a

t this generation that’s physically unfit i g i

D and has no savings and whose health 10 2002 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 care we can’t afford at current prices.” Such health challenges are going to Source: Ruth Helman, et al. , “The 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey: Confidence make it difficult for many Americans Drops to Record Lows, Reflecting ‘the New Normal,’ ” Employee Benefit Research to work longer, which economists argue Institute, March 2011, www.ebri.org/pdf/surveys/rcs/2011/ebri_03-2011_no355_ will be necessary to shore up not only rcs-11.pdf. Social Security but also personal re - tirement savings. demographics. “The big factor that On April 15, the U.S. House of Rep - Rother, the AARP policy director, pushes hugely in the other direction resentatives approved a budget plan stirred up a great deal of controversy is health care. We are anomalous in that would attempt to rein in Medicare with remarks quoted in The Wall Street that we have a system in which health costs by converting it from an insur - Journal that suggested the seniors’ care costs are growing uncontrollably ance program to a limited subsidy for lobbying group, which had helped even before the age wave.” seniors buying private insurance. The torpedo a plan to partially privatize Total enrollment in Medicare, the plan is unpopular with the public, ac - Social Security in 2005, might be will - federal government’s health insurance cording to polls, and Democrats not ing to accept benefit cuts in the pro - program for the elderly, is expected only oppose it but plan to use it as gram. 9 The group immediately sought to rise from 47 million today to just a campaign issue in 2012. 8 to downplay Rother’s comments. over 80 million by 2030. 6 Richard “We will never allow any effort to Still, the open debate about cutting Foster, Medicare’s chief actuary, pre - dismantle the program and force bene - entitlement programs, combined with dicts the program’s trust fund could fit cuts upon seniors under the guise losses in the stock market and the col - be depleted by 2024. 7 of deficit reduction,” five Democratic lapse of the housing bubble, have left The growing number of aging Amer - senators wrote June 6 to Vice President elder Americans nervous about their icans also will put enormous strains Joseph Biden, who had been leading financial futures. 10 A “retirement con - on Social Security and Medicaid, the negotiations with members of Congress fidence” survey by the Employee state-federal health insurance program on debt reduction. “Our nation’s seniors Benefit Research Institute found that for the poor and disabled, which pays are not responsible for the fiscal chal - the percentage of workers “not at all” for more than 40 percent of nursing lenges we face, and they should not confident they will be able to afford home care in the United States. be responsible for shouldering the bur - a comfortable retirement rose from “What were long-term problems are den of reducing our deficits.” 22 percent last year to 27 percent this now at our doorstep,” says Maya But many policy analysts insist some year, the highest level in the 21 years MacGuineas, director of the Fiscal Poli - changes to entitlements benefiting seniors, the group has conducted the survey. cy Program at the New America Foun - particularly Medicare, will be necessary (See graph, p. 581. ) 11 dation and president of the nonpartisan to bring down the federal deficit. And it’s going to be harder for younger Committee for a Responsible Federal On average, says Richard W. John - Americans to support the swelling Budget, which advocates greater fiscal son, director of the retirement policy population of seniors. Dowell Myers, discipline. program at the Urban Institute, a cen - a demographer at the University of

580 CQ Researcher Southern California, says the ratio of those over 65 to those between 25 and Workers Gloomy About Retirement Prospects 64 has been constant for 40 years, with More than one-fourth of American workers are “not at all” confident 24 seniors for every 100 working-age that they will have enough money to last through retirement. That’s Americans. But that “dependency ratio” nearly a three-fold increase from nine years earlier. Fewer than one will spike by two-thirds over the next in eight workers is “very confident” about a comfortable retirement. 20 years, to 38 seniors per 100 working- age adults, he says. Worker Confidence in Having Enough Money to Live “When we come out of this reces - Comfortably Throughout Retirement, 2002-2011 sion, we’re going to have fewer new 50% workers and more boomers retiring,” 40 Myers says. “That’s when we’ll feel the changes.” 30 As Americans contemplate the con - 20 sequences of an aging population, here are some of the questions they’re 10 debating: 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Should Americans work longer? In March, the Centers for Disease Source: Ruth Helman, et al. , “The 2011 Retirement Very confident Control and Prevention announced that Confidence Survey: Confidence Drops to Record Lows, Somewhat confident Not too confident the U.S. death rate had hit a new low Reflecting ‘the New Normal,’ ” Employee Benefit Research Institute, March 2011, www.ebri.org/pdf/ Not at all confident while life expectancy had once again surveys/rcs/2011/ebri_03-2011_no355_rcs-11.pdf. Don’t know/ ticked up. A male born in 2009 could refused to answer expect to live 75.7 years, while a fe - male could expect to live to 80.6. 12 was an economic aide to former Pres - general, and retirement accounts, in Those numbers are a vast im - ident George W. Bush. particular, are not as full as they should provement over life expectancy in 1935, The age for retiring with full So - be. Many people have yet to make up when Social Security was created. Life cial Security benefits is slowly rising recent stock market losses, and a weak expectancy at birth then was just 58 to 67. Some politicians and econo - housing market has largely dashed for men and 62 for women. 13 mists believe it needs to be raised hopes of turning homes into assets that Those averages were held down by further. That was the recommenda - can offer support in retirement. much higher rates of infant mortality. tion of President Barack Obama’s Fewer private employers are offering Most people who lived to adulthood debt commission last year and is a guaranteed pension benefits, and pen - could expect to live past 65, even then. policy direction lately followed in sev - sions and other retirement benefits for Still, people are living longer — and eral European countries. government workers are under politi - spending more years in retirement. “What we really need to do is raise cal pressure as well. 14 The result is Those two facts are putting additional the early-entitlement age, which has that about half of U.S. households are strain on both Social Security and always been 62 since it was intro - at risk of not being able to maintain Medicare finances. “The typical bene - duced, in 1956 for women and in their living standards in retirement, ac - ficiary is expecting to receive benefits 1962 for men,” says the Urban Insti - cording to the Center for Retirement for almost nine years longer than when tute’s Johnson. “The problem with hav - Research at Boston College. 15 the Social Security program started,” ing the early retirement age relative - More Americans might need to keep says Charles Blahous, a trustee of the ly young is that it does send a signal working, and market demand for them Social Security program and research that 62 is an appropriate time to re - to do so may also rise, suggests fellow at the conservative Hoover In - tire. It’s not good for society as a MacGuineas, of the New America Foun - stitution at Stanford University. whole, and it’s also not good for in - dation. “We’re actually going to be Not only are people living longer, dividuals.” having labor-market shortages as baby but they are retiring earlier. Most men Many people may not be able to boomers move out of the workforce,” worked, on average, just past 65 dur - retire early, regardless of the official re - she says. ing the 1950s. Now, the average re - tirement ages set by Social Security. A number of social scientists have tirement age is 62, says Blahous, who Americans do a bad job of saving in speculated about whether boomers will

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 581 AGING POPULATION

Cities Struggle to Meet Growing Needs of Elderly “We have a country that’s aging everywhere.”

ockford’s not doing well. The Illinois city, about 90 miles in Florida and Arizona is relatively small. Most people retire in northwest of Chicago, was once a leading furniture-making their own homes, or at least their own counties. R center, but those jobs are mostly gone. As a result, Rock - “You can certainly find lots of upper-middle-class baby ford’s unemployment rate was among the highest among U.S. boomers who are coping quite well, moving into college towns cities during the recent recession. where there are good social services available and good med - Most jobs that remain are snatched up by workers 55 and ical services,” says demographer Phillip Longman, a senior re - older — about all that’s left of Rockford’s working-age popu - search fellow at the New America Foundation. “The vast ma - lation. Rockford Mayor Larry Morrissey, who is in his 40s, was jority of baby boomers, however, are often stuck underwater in elected on a platform of promising economic revitalization that postwar tract housing and more recent exurban construction. would help bring young people — including natives who’ve They can’t get out if they wanted to.” left — back to town. Frey says it’s important for communities, particularly in the Without strong cultural amenities or a major university, it’s suburbs that were planned with younger populations in mind, been a tough sell. Lack of jobs presents the biggest obstacle. to learn to adapt to aging ones. Every metropolitan area, he Even entry-level jobs paying just above minimum wage that says, is seeing marked growth in its senior population — and once would have gone to teenagers or people in their 20s are will see more as boomers age. “The baby boom python keeps now largely held by workers in their 50s. “We have an aging rolling along,” he says. population, and it’s getting poorer,” said James Ryan, Rockford’s In recent years, many local governments and nonprofit city administrator. 1 groups have tried to come up with programs, such as increased Rockford may be an extreme case, but it’s not unique. Many transit, that will help address the needs of populations that are former industrial cities in the Northeast and Midwest are grow - “aging in place.” ing both older and less affluent. Among the nation’s 100 largest About 40 localities, including Atlanta, Iowa City, Iowa, and metropolitan areas, the ones that have had the highest per - Pima County, Ariz., have passed ordinances mapping out vol - centage growth of seniors are struggling places such as Scran - untary or mandatory design requirements for new-home con - ton, Pa., Buffalo, N.Y., and Youngstown, Ohio. 2 struction that would accommodate the needs of seniors and the “They have higher concentrations of seniors,” says William disabled, sparing more of them from moving to nursing homes. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think tank “We could save a lot of money if individuals could continue to who has analyzed 2010 census data on the location of seniors. live in their own homes and receive in-home nursing if they “The younger people have left.” need it,” says Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., who has introduced There are metropolitan areas in Florida that have a high “inclusive home design” legislation at the federal level. density of people over age 65. But the number of seniors and Helping seniors cope with chronic disease is another way aging baby boomers who pick up and move to warmer climes to keep them out of nursing homes. That’s why Elder Ser - keep working longer for that reason even 70s. Robert H. Binstock, a pro - century ago, he says. People take early or perhaps out of a desire to keep fessor of aging and public policy at retirement more often, Blahous says, mentally and socially active. Many Case Western Reserve University, notes “not because more people are physi - have speculated that the next gener - that although people are living cally breaking down. It’s because it’s ation of older Americans will want to longer, they’re also afflicted with financially beneficial.” volunteer or work part time, if not stay chronic diseases for longer periods But putting aside arguments about in their same job past the normal re - of time. “A lot of them can’t do their whether people are physically capa - tirement age. “There’s not going to be jobs anymore,” he says. “The whole ble of working longer, there’s also the a shrinking entry-level workforce, but notion that everybody is going to be question of whether they can find work. it’s not going to be growing” either, able to keep doing their job until 70, Alicia Munnell, director of the Boston says Jackson of the Center for Strate - it’s silly.” College Center for Retirement Research, gic and International Studies. “There Blahous, the former Bush adminis - says employers will never say they may be demand for older workers.” tration official, dismisses such argu - wouldn’t hire older people — “that’s But not everyone is convinced that ments. Social Security already makes against the law” — but they are “very many more people will be able to provisions for disabilities, and people ho hum” about the prospect. Her cen - keep working well into their 60s or worked, on average, longer a half - ter has conducted surveys that show

582 CQ Researcher vices of Merrimack Valley It’s not just the lack of pro - in Lawrence, Mass., has gramming help offered by gov - been working with seniors ernments that is a problem for and physicians to help co - aging communities, but also a ordinate management of decline in basic services and h t

prescription drug regimens o amenities, Binstock says. R

and other treatments. “We’re e “You’ve got lots of places that k a

not a medical facility, but J are aging, and the young people / o what we have is the abili - t are moving out, particularly in o h

ty to draw elders in and P rural areas,” he says. “You’re going

educate them on their P to have communities that aren’t A health care,” says Rosanne Eighty-year-old Ada Noda, of St. Augustine, Fla., developed even going to have grocery stores.” DiStefano, the facility’s ex - health problems and couldn’t work, forcing her to declare Some states have a youth ecutive director. bankruptcy. Aging trends are seen by many experts as a population that is growing more DiStefano’s program has significant reason for the climb in health care costs. But rapidly than the older popula - been widely imitated in health economists say medical costs are rising largely because tion, notably in the Southwest, Massachusetts, as have a of the increasing availability of expensive treatments. says Frey. But aging popula - number of other innova - tions are growing in many tions designed to help residents adjust to old age. But such parts of the country not accustomed to accommodating them. programs are having trouble attracting funding in the present The localities where older residents are starting to predom - budget environment. inate, such as Rockford, “are the ones that are going to be Many local governments are providing exercise classes and most severely hit,” says Frey. “We have a country that’s aging nutrition assistance for seniors, but a survey by the National everywhere, but it’s only young in certain spots.” Association of Area Agencies on Aging found that finance and funding problems are the biggest challenge localities face in — Alan Greenblatt adjusting to an aging population. Thirty percent of local gov - ernments say that their overall revenues are in decline. 3 1 Ted C. Fishman, Shock of Gray (2010), p. 235. “If you go community by community, sure, some have de - 2 For background, see Thomas J. Billitteri, “Blighted Cities,” CQ Researcher , veloped programs that are better than others,” says Robert H. Nov. 12, 2010, pp. 941-964. 3 “The Maturing of America: Communities Moving Forward for an Aging Binstock, a professor of aging and public policy at Case West - Population,” National Association of Area Agencies on Aging, June 2011, ern Reserve University. “Overall, it’s a tremendous problem.” www.n4a.org/files/MOA_FINAL_Rpt.pdf, p. iii. employers are worried about issues job is harder, and the periods of un - Medicare and Medicaid spending such as older workers’ stamina, abili - employment are longer.” have grown at a similar pace. The two ty to learn new skills and adaptabili - programs, which provide coverage for ty to changing technology. Will spending on health care for seniors and the poor and disabled, re - Thus, although the economics of the elderly bankrupt the United spectively, are on course to grow from both entitlement programs and house - States? about 4 percent of GDP in 2008 to hold finances would seem to dictate Health care costs already consume nearly 7 percent by 2035. 17 that more Americans will have to work more than double the share of the econ - The 2010 federal health-care law, longer, their chances of doing so might omy that they did 30 years ago. They known as the Affordable Care Act, not be as good as they would wish. are expected to consume $2.8 trillion was designed to cut Medicare costs “We see employers willing to keep this year, or 17.9 percent of gross do - by nearly $120 billion over the next older workers, but they are reluctant mestic product (GDP), according to five years. 18 But Medicare’s actuar - to hire [older] people who are new to the federal Centers on Medicare and ies worry that savings from the 2010 the payroll,” says the Urban Institute’s Medicaid Services (CMS). That’s up law can’t all be relied upon. That’s Johnson. “We know that when older from 8.1 percent of the economy in because Congress has frequently can - people lose their jobs, getting a new 1975. 16 celed plans to lower Medicare fees

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 583 AGING POPULATION

lished by the 2010 health care law, U.S. Population Growing Grayer which is meant to make recommen - A record 40 million Americans are age 65 or older, nearly double dations for Medicare spending cuts when its growth exceeds GDP growth the total four decades ago. The number of seniors has risen every by more than 1 percent. decade since 1880. “Cutting providers eventually cuts benefits because they are less available,” (in millions) Number of Americans said Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., the minority 50 Age 65 or Older, 1880-2010 whip. “You don’t have as many physi - 40 cians, for example, to take care of 30 Medicare patients, so either people have 20 to wait a lot longer or they never get 20 10 to see the physician they’d like to.” 0 But if a political deal is not reached, 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 the consequences could be dire, ex - perts warn. The Congressional Budget Sources: “Life Expectancy for Social Security,” Social Security Administration, Office (CBO) says health care costs, www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html; “Profile of General Population and Housing on their current course, could swal - Characteristics: 2010,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2010, factfinder2.census.gov/faces/ 21 tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1&prodType=table. low all of GDP by 2082. The risk of bankruptcy from health costs in particular, says Hewitt, are ex - for hospitals and physicians. 19 As a ity of expensive treatments in the health actly what bond rating agencies have result, the Medicare trust fund is on care system — a system that treats warned about when they have threat - course to run out of money in 2024 young and old alike. “The real prob - ened recently to downgrade U.S. debt — five years earlier than previously lem is not the aging of the popula - — meaning the federal government predicted — according to Richard tion, but the rise of health care costs,” may not be able to borrow money as Foster, the chief actuary at CMS. says Case Western’s Binstock, a for - cheaply because there’s more risk that Rising health care costs are a bur - mer president of the Gerontological it won’t be able to cover its interest den not just for the government but Society of America. “We don’t look at payments. for individuals as well. “We’re spend - the elephant in the room here, which “Three-quarters of the projected ing about $8,000 more annually for is the enormous profits of the medical - deficits over the next 10 years are new insurance for a family of four than we industrial complex.” health care spending, according to CBO,” did in 2000,” says Paul Hewitt, vice Most experts agree that major al - Hewitt says. “If you could hold health president of research at the Coalition terations are in order. Some are dis - costs at 2011 levels, you wouldn’t have for Affordable Health Coverage, an ad - couraged that the two major parties any deficit of note in 2021.” vocacy group in Washington. seem worlds apart on health care is - “There’s no question that we’re on Experts say aging trends are a sig - sues. “Both parties have to recognize course for health care costs to bank - nificant reason for the climb in health the need to compromise,” says the rupt the country,” says the New Amer - care costs and an important source of Urban Institute’s Johnson. ica Foundation’s MacGuineas. “You can’t pressure on the federal budget. “It’s That does not appear imminent. have anything growing faster than GDP worth keeping in mind that a signifi - Republicans have pledged to repeal forever, because it consumes more and cant share of health care growth is the 2010 health care law, considered more of the economy.” demographically based,” says Jackson one of Obama’s signature achieve - That may be the greatest danger. of the Center for Strategic and Inter - ments, while Democrats intend to use MacGuineas, like other budget ex - national Studies. “You’re looking at a the GOP’s controversial plan to turn perts, predicts that some sort of steep rise in cost just because of the Medicare into something resembling change will be made in health care rise in the average age of the benefi - a voucher program against them in spending, because present trends are ciaries — the aging of the aged.” the 2012 elections. not sustainable. But the changes won’t But health economists say aging Even as congressional Republicans come without pain and political diffi - trends are far from the whole story. seek to slash Medicare and other en - culty. In the meantime, rising health Medical costs are rising largely be - titlements, they oppose the Indepen - costs may continue to squeeze spend - cause of the ever-increasing availabil - dent Payment Advisory Board, estab - ing on other programs.

584 CQ Researcher Will the young and old fight over resources? Elderly a Growing Share of Electorate When he unveiled his budget in The proportion of the American electorate age 65 and older has February, New York City Mayor Michael risen modestly over the past 20 years, from 17 percent in 1990 to Bloomberg warned that the city faced tough choices because of a budget 19 percent in 2010. But it is expected to grow sharply over the shortfall of nearly $5 billion. “Every - next 40 years, topping 30 percent by 2050. body expects you to do everything,” (percentage) Voting-age Population the mayor said. “That’s not the world 35% Age 65 and Older, 1990-2050 we live in.” 22 Bloomberg felt he had no choice 30 but to threaten layoffs of more than 4,000 school teachers. At the same 25 time, however, his budget contained 20 a new initiative: the construction of 10 e l

“megacenters” for senior citizens. 15 d e 1990 2000 2010 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050* a R

Both ideas were ultimately rejected e o

by the city council. Still, says the Urban * projected J / s

Institute’s Johnson, “That was striking. e Sources: “United States 1990 Census of Population,” U.S. Census Bureau, g a

It seems to be the essence of the po - m

www.census.gov/prod/cen1990/cp1/cp-1-1.pdf; “United States 2000 Census of I

y t

tential for intergenerational combat.” Population and Housing,” U.S. Census Bureau, November 2010, www.census. t e

The idea that aging boomers will gov/prod/cen2000/phc-1-1-pt1.pdf; “Projections of the Population by Selected Age G drain the nation’s resources through Groups and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, entitlements such as Social Security and www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t2.xls. Medicare — and that younger gener - ations are not just going to resent but Democrats and Obama in 2008,” says Howe and others say boomers, protest it — has seeped into popular Howe, co-author of Millennials Rising , throughout their adult lives, have not culture. It forms the premise, for ex - about the generation born between voted as a predictable bloc. If they ample, of satirical novels such as 1982 and 2002. “Obama and McCain” start to in old age, however, they Christopher Buckley’s Boomsday and — Sen. John McCain, Obama’s GOP would be formidable. As the popula - Albert Brooks’ 2030. opponent — “were dead even among tion ages, the electorate — the group While older voters demand full fund - those 30 and over.” of people actually voting — is grow - ing for Social Security and Medicare, Older Americans voted dispropor - ing older at a disproportionate rate. younger voters may worry that the tionately for GOP candidates in 2010. The percentage of the voting-age growth of those expensive programs But Democrats won a special election population that is over 65 is expect - is crowding out spending on areas that in May in a traditionally Republican ed to climb by more than 10 percent benefit them more directly, such as congressional district in upstate New over the next 25 years. 23 (See graph, education and transportation. Or the York. The election was widely inter - above. ) And, because older voters tend young might want to see entitlements preted as a referendum on the House to go to the polls more regularly, their cut in order to chop deficits that they’ll GOP’s plan to turn Medicare into a share of the electorate will climb even eventually have to repay. form of voucher program, with seniors more, Binstock predicts. “I think it’s amazing we’ve gotten turning out in force to reject the idea Some political scientists are skepti - this far without younger generations and the Republican candidate. cal that there will be a young person’s getting more agitated about constant - “Over the years, until very recent - revolt, or even noticeable friction be - ly investing in seniors, with no simi - ly, there’s been very little evidence tween the generations. “I don’t buy lar promises made for productive in - that older people vote on the basis the generational-conflict theory,” says vestments for young people,” says of old-age benefits as a bloc,” says Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist MacGuineas. Binstock at Case Western Reserve. “It’s at Emory University. “Programs that Voting schisms along generational only in 2010 and the 26th District in benefit the elderly, such as Social Se - lines have become apparent in some New York that you begin to see some curity and Medicare, also benefit their recent elections. “You had this over - signs of this, particularly in relation children and grandchildren. If you cut whelming tilt of millennials to the to Medicare.” benefits for the elderly, one conse -

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 585 AGING POPULATION

quence will be to largely synonymous shift costs onto their with death. Older peo - children and reduce ple were both rarer and income available to more vulnerable to sud - pay for, among other den death due to such things, education for things as infectious dis - their children.” eases and poor sanita - Others echo this tion. But even as mod - point, noting that old- ern medicine has age entitlements keep conquered diseases that e r

seniors from being a o afflict the old, it has done o M

financial burden on even more to address n h

their children, while o infant mortality. J / older voters will want s With fewer people e g to see young people a dying young, life ex - m I succeed through ed - pectancy has increased. y t t

ucation — in part, to e And healthier babies G help pay the taxes Walter Breuning celebrates his 113th birthday at a retirement home in have coincided with that fund their enti - Great Falls, Mont., on Sept. 21, 2009. At his death in April 2011 at age other societal and eco - tlements. 114, he was the last American man born in the 19th century and one of nomic factors to bring “Older people the world’s oldest people. The oldest of the 78 million Americans born birthrates down. As really do care about during the post-World War II baby boom are turning 65 this year, while prosperity grows, death the share of the population over 85 is growing even faster. their grandchildren rates fall. And the ad - and obviously have vent of pensions and a financial stake in having a pro - other social-insurance programs has ductive workforce,” says Rother, the meant that parents no longer have as AARP vice president. “Younger peo - BACKGROUND great a need for large families to sup - ple need to look forward to a se - port them as they age. cure retirement, and they obviously Meanwhile, women’s roles have can’t vote to limit Medicare without Living Longer changed. Many now balance reproduc - having repercussions for them later.” tion with concerns and responsibilities Still, some observers say resentment or most of human history, jour - outside the home. Contraceptives are among the young is only likely to F nalist Ted C. Fishman points out more widely available, while abortion grow as entitlements take up an in - in his book about global aging, Shock has become legal and available. creasingly large share of a strained fed - of Gray , people who lived past 45 had Finally, as American society has eral budget. And some worry that the beaten the odds. Life expectancy bare - urbanized, fewer families need to intergenerational compact may be ly budged from 25 years during the have multiple children to help work frayed by the fact that the older Amer - Roman Empire to 30 years at the dawn in the fields. icans who receive entitlements are of the 20th century. 24 predominantly white, while the school Until the Industrial Revolution, peo - and working-age populations will be ple 65 or older never comprised more ‘Fertility Splurge’ increasingly made up of minorities, in - than 3 or 4 percent of the population. cluding Hispanics and Asians. ( See side - Today, they average 16 percent in the n the 1930s, demographers predict - bar, p. 588. ) developed world — and their share I ed that after a long period of de - “Despite the rumblings, I think the is expected to rise to nearly 25 per - cline in birthrates dating back to the population may come to appreciate that cent by 2030. 25 (The share of Amer - Industrial Revolution, the U.S. popula - old-age benefits are actually things that icans over 65 will be nearly 20 per - tion would stagnate and was unlikely benefit all generations,” Binstock says. cent by then.) Demographers call such to rise above 150 million by century’s “However, I do think that the growing shifts from historic norms the “demo - end. But birthrates shot up immediate - Latino population may very well come graphic transition.” ly after World War II, quickly rising to to resent paying taxes to support an A confluence of factors has led to more than 4 million births per year. older white generation.” the current transition. Aging was once Continued on p. 588

586 CQ Researcher Chronology

1990 the retirement age for pilots from 1940s-1960s Proportion of married women ages 60 to 65. . . . The nation’s earliest- High postwar birth rates fuel 20-24 drops to 32 percent. born boomer, Kathleen Casey- suburban growth. Kirschling, applies for Social Secu - 1992 rity benefits. 1946 Bill Clinton elected as the first First of the 78 million American boomer president. • baby boomers are born. • 1956 2010s The number of Women are allowed to collect early older Americans continues to benefits under Social Security at age 2000s Oldest boomers, rise, but the U.S. enjoys more 62. The same deal is offered to men enter their 60s, raising concerns growth among school and in 1962. about the cost of their retire - working-age populations than ments. other rich nations. 1959 More than 50 million Americans 2000 2010 are under age 14, representing For every American 65 or older, The number of workers 55 and over 30 percent of the population. there are 3.4 workers contributing hits 26 million, which is a 46 per - payroll taxes to Social Security — cent increase since 2000. Congress 1960 a ratio that will shrink to 2.0 by enacts the Affordable Care Act, de - Sun City opens in Arizona, pioneer - 2030. signed to expand health coverage, ing the retirement community idea. including a doubling of the eligible 2003 population under Medicaid. 1960 Congress passes an expansion of Seventy percent of women ages Medicare that offers a prescription 2011 20-24 are married. drug benefit to seniors. . . . Pima March 16: The Centers for Disease County, Ariz., becomes the first Control and Prevention announces 1965 local government to require all that life expectancy for Americans Forty-one percent of Americans are new homes to be designed to ac - at birth increased in 2009 to 78.2 under age 20. . . . Medicare and commodate seniors and the dis - years. . . . April 15: The House Medicaid, the main government abled. passes a budget that would con - health programs for the elderly, vert Medicare into a voucher pro - poor and disabled, are created. 2005 gram for those now under 55. . . . The pregnancy rate of 103.2 per May 24: Democrats win a special • 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 years election in a traditionally Republican old is 11 percent below the 1990 district in upstate New York; the peak of 115.8. race is seen as a referendum on the 1980s-1990s House GOP Medicare proposal. Boomers set aside youthful re - 2006 bellion to take a leading role President George W. Bush, one of 2015 in wealth creation and politics. the oldest boomers, turns 60. . . . Working-age populations are pro - The Pension Protection Act allows jected to start declining in the de - 1983 workers to dip into their pensions veloped world, with the United Congress approves a gradual in - while working past 62. States as the major exception. crease in the age at which Ameri - cans can collect full Social Security 2007 2025 benefits, from 65 to 67. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Population growth is expected to Bernanke predicts Social Security stall in every developed country ex - 1986 and Medicare will swallow 15 per - cept the United States, which is also The Age Discrimination Employ - cent of annual economic output expected to be the only developed ment Act is amended to eliminate by 2030. . . . The Federal Aviation nation with more children under mandatory retirement ages. Administration proposes increasing age 20 than elderly over age 65.

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 587 AGING POPULATION

Minority Youths Are Rising Demographic Force Trend has major implications for aging whites.

hite America is aging, while its young people are those younger than 18 in 10 states and 35 large metropolitan areas, increasingly dominated by members of ethnic and including Atlanta, Dallas and Orlando. In Texas, 95 percent of the W racial minorities. As a result, the days when the Unit - growth of the youth population occurred among Hispanics. ed States will no longer be a white-majority nation are com - “What a lot of older people don’t understand is that, to ing sooner than demographers had long expected. the extent we have a growing youth population, it’s entirely That could lead to a political struggle over resources, some due to minorities,” says William Frey, a demographer at the social scientists contend. There could be a generational battle Brookings Institution who has analyzed the 2010 census data over governmental priorities — one with racial or ethnic over - on children. Twenty-three states have seen a decline in the tones. total number of children. “In the baby boom generation, about Younger members of minority groups may not want to 20 percent never had children, which is about double the rate fund entitlement programs that chiefly benefit a mostly white of the previous generation of elders,” says Phillip Longman, a cohort of older Americans. Conversely, the elderly — who policy researcher at the New America Foundation think tank hold disproportionate political power thanks to higher rates in Washington. of voter turnout — may seek to protect such programs at the “Now, you’re talking about this aging population that doesn’t expense of investments in government programs that chiefly have any family support and doesn’t have any biological rela - benefit the young. tions,” he says. “It’s not so much that they’re white as they for - “Over time, the major focus in this struggle is likely to got to have children.” be between an aging white population that appears in - This opens one of the big questions regarding the differ - creasingly resistant to taxes and dubious of public spending, ences between an older, white population and a younger and a minority population that overwhelmingly views gov - population made up more from minorities. In his 2007 book ernment education, health and social-welfare programs as the Immigrants and Boomers , demographer Dowell Myers wor - best ladder of opportunity for its children,” political journalist ried that there is little kinship — or sense of shared identi - Ronald Brownstein wrote in the National Journal last year . 1 fication — between the groups. In a number of places, minorities already outnumber whites But Longman says such concerns may be overstated. — at least among schoolchildren. The population of white chil - “Thirty years ago, I predicted that would be a big thing, dren declined by 4.3 million from 2000 to 2010, while that of the conflict between generations made even worse by the Hispanic children rose by 5.5 million, according to the 2010 fact that it has an ethnic and racial component to it as decennial census. well,” he says. Indeed, the number of white children decreased in 46 states Longman argues now, however, that racial lines are getting between 2000 and 2010. Whites now make up a minority among blurrier. Just as the definition of who was “white” expanded in

Continued from p. 586 Women married younger and had their The time was ripe, economically, All told, about 76 million children first babies at an earlier age than at any for many more people to have chil - were born in the United States between time in modern history. 27 The fertility dren than had done so during the De - 1946 and 1964, generally considered rate, which refers to the average num - pression. GDP expanded rapidly, from the period of the baby boom. (Sever - ber of children born to women of child- $227 billion in 1940 to $488 billion in al million have died, but immigrants bearing years, had averaged 2.1 chil - 1960. Median family income and have more than made up for those dren per woman during the 1930s but wages climbed steadily because of numbers, bringing the baby boom total peaked at 3.7 in the late 1950s. 28 tight labor markets, while inflation re - to 78 million.) “Simply put, the baby The number of babies being born mained low. The Servicemembers’ Read - boom was a ‘disturbance’ which em - certainly surprised the General Elec - justment Act of 1944, commonly known anated from a decade-and-a-half-long tric Co. in January 1953. It promised as the GI Bill of Rights, helped more fertility splurge on the part of Ameri - five shares of stock to any employee people in the middle class buy their can couples,” concluded the Popula - who had a baby on Oct. 15, the com - first homes and get college educations, tion Reference Bureau in 1980. 26 pany’s 75th anniversary. GE expected significantly increasing their lifetime Childbearing long delayed — first by maybe eight employees would quali - earnings. “Never had so many people, the Great Depression of the 1930s and fy. Instead they had to hand over stock anywhere, been so well off,” observed then by war — was put off no longer. to 189 workers. 29 U.S. News & World Report in 1957. 30

588 CQ Researcher the first half of the 20th cen - “White parents with chil - s o tury to include groups such r dren may be more likely to lo - d

as the Irish and Italians, His - n cate in select neighborhoods o H

panics will increasingly be and communities, perhaps those s i r

seen as “white,” Longman h with better schools, or superi - C

says. “I just think the melt - / or public amenities related to s

e 3

ing pot continues,” he says. g childrearing,” he writes. a

Polls indicate that younger m It will be in the interest I

y

Americans are readier to em - t of the aging white popula - t brace racial diversity than e tion to see that young peo - G their elders, while more de - Minorities are fueling the nation’s growing youth ple, including Hispanics and scribe themselves as mul - population. Above, black and Hispanic students at the other minorities, fulfill their tiracial. Still, racial animosi - Harlem Success Academy, a New York charter school. educational potential, says ties and differences persist, Myers. Otherwise, they will and they may become exacerbated as the white population ages be caught short as the working-age population, which pays and the minority population grows larger. the bulk of the taxes that support programs that benefit The public-school system is one place where tensions could seniors, is made up largely of minorities. “The person you rise. Gaps on average reading and math test scores posted by educated 20 years ago, that’s who is going to buy your Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites have been narrowing, but house,” he says. remain wide. “Despite the closing white-Hispanic gaps on civics performance, the fact is we’re still seeing gaps in the double — Alan Greenblatt digits,” said Leticia Van de Putte, a Texas state senator who sits on the board that oversees National Assessment of Edu - 1 Ronald Brownstein, “The Gray and The Brown: The Generational Mis - cational Progress testing. 2 match,” National Journal , July 24, 2010, www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/ the-gray-and-the-brown-the-generational-mismatch-20100724. Because school funding relies partly on property tax as - 2 “State Senators React to Hispanic Achievement Gains,” Hispanic Tips , May 5, sessments in most places, such disparities may be perpetuated 2011, www.hispanictips.com/2011/05/05/state-senators-react-to-hispanic- by racial segregation. Although the 2010 census showed a de - achievement-gains-on-latest-naep-civics-report-card-that-showed-substantial- gains-in-the-performance-of-hispanic-students-at-grades-four-eight-and-12/ cline in residential segregation, black and Hispanic children are 3 William Frey, “America’s Diverse Future,” The Brookings Institution, April 2011, more likely to live in a segregated neighborhood than black p. 10, www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0406_census_diversity_ and Hispanic adults, according to Frey. frey/0406_census_diversity_frey.pdf.

pared to 70 percent in 1960. Social them for fighting for greater rights for The Baby Bust scientists began to posit that it was women and gays, among others. The the baby boom that was exception - debate about boomers’ values became erhaps because of the advent of al in American history, not the sub - a recurring motif in politics — espe - P the birth control pill in 1960 and sequent bust. 32 cially after Bill Clinton, who would the fact that more women had ca - But the baby bust was followed by become the first boomer president, reers, boomers were slower to be - the uptick known as the “echo boom,” emerged on the national stage in 1992. come parents than their parents had when many boomers became parents, Political scientists have noted that been. Between 1965 and 1976 — the racking up 64 million live births be - boomers failed to coalesce behind a era of the so-called baby bust — fer - tween 1977 and 1993. 33 single political party, with many grow - tility among whites dropped below Meanwhile, boomers continued to ing more fiscally conservative during replacement levels. 31 dominate many aspects of American the 1980s but remaining socially lib - After just two decades of a “fer - life and culture. Some criticized them eral, with views on race, AIDS, drugs tility splurge,” Americans went back as frivolous, blaming their personal and women’s rights distinctly different to marrying later and producing fewer habits and quests for self-fulfillment from their parents’ generation. children. In 1990, only 32 percent of for every social ill from divorce rates But the mere fact of their mas - women 20-24 were married, com - to teen drug use. Others defended sive numbers made them hard to ig -

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 589 AGING POPULATION

nore — and created policy challenges buy private insurance is an example. A The percentage of adults who are as they aged. “This year, the first of survey conducted in May by the Pew providing personal or financial care about 78 million baby boomers turn Research Center for the People & the to a parent has tripled since 1994, 60, including two of my dad’s fa - Press found opposition to the plan was according to the MetLife Mature Mar - vorite people, me and President especially high among “people who say ket Institute. “Nearly 10 million adult Clinton,” President George W. Bush they have heard a lot about this pro - children over the age of 50 care for said during his 2006 State of the posal — fully 56 percent are opposed, their aging parents,” said Sandra Union address. “This milestone is while 33 percent are in favor.” 36 Timmermann, the institute’s director. more than a personal crisis. It is a “The politics of this is, the baby “Assessing the long-term financial im - national challenge. The retirement of boom is a generation that’s always pact of caregiving for aging parents the baby boom on caregivers them - generation will selves, especially those put unprecedented who must curtail their strains on the fed - working careers to do

34 r

eral government.” e so, is especially im - t i e

Combined spend - R portant, since it can

y

ing for Social Secu - a jeopardize their future J / rity, Medicare and s financial security.” 37 e g

Medicaid will con - a “Boomers are quite m I sume 60 percent of different from earlier y t t

the federal budget e generations as they’re G

by 2030, Bush said, a approaching this age,” i v

presenting future e says William H. Frey, n

Congresses with u a demographer at the b i r

“impossible choices T Brookings Institution, a - y

— staggering tax h centrist think tank in c t

increases, immense a Washington. For ex - l C

deficits or deep cuts c ample, boomer women M in every category of A nurse examines stroke victim Elvira Tesarek at her home in Warren, “are much more like - spending.” R.I., in May 2011. Nearly 1,300 elderly and disabled adults in the state ly to have lived inde - Bush had spent have been able to return home under a pilot program pendent lives, been a good chunk of designed to cut spending on Medicare. head of households 2005 touting a plan and worked.” to revamp Social But there’s a great Security, meant to be the signature been pretty willing to vote themselves deal of economic inequality within the domestic achievement of his second good fiscal deals,” says MacGuineas of baby boom generation, he notes, which term. But the plan — which would the New America Foundation. means many retirees will have a hard have allowed workers born after 1950 time making ends meet. 38 In addi - to put part of their payroll taxes into tion, Frey says, boomers didn’t have private investment accounts in ex - ‘Sandwich’ Generation as many children as their parents’ gen - change for cuts in traditional benefits eration, so they “can’t rely on them — went nowhere. A Washington oomers will add to the rising num - for support.” Post /ABC News Poll found that 58 per - B ber of seniors — but their parents, Not everyone views the aging of cent of those surveyed said the more in many cases, will still be around. America as bad news. An aging pop - they heard about Bush’s plan, the less Those 85 and over now make up the ulation, says Eric Kingson, a professor they liked it. 35 fastest-growing segment of the U.S. pop - of social work at Syracuse University, More recent attempts to overhaul the ulation, according to the National Insti - is a sign that society has successfully major entitlement plans benefiting se - tute on Aging. That means that even as fostered an economy that helps peo - niors have proved no more popular. A boomers enter what has traditionally ple lead long, prosperous lives. “Pop - House Republican plan to convert been considered old age, they are “sand - ulation aging is not just about the old,” Medicare from an insurance program wiched” between still-living parents and he says. “It’s about how all of our in - into a credit that would help seniors their own children and grandchildren. stitutions are going to change.”

590 CQ Researcher like any personal savings account, they “The basic idea is that an employ - can be drained dry. Unlike defined- er would simply do payroll deduc - CURRENT benefit plans, the money is gone once tion,” says J. Mark Iwry, senior advis - 401(k) assets are depleted. er to Treasury Secretary Timothy SITUATION Americans are not contributing Geithner. “When we do automatic en - enough to 401(k)s to build up suffi - rollment in 401(k)s, the [participation] cient retirement nest eggs. According rate goes up from two-thirds or three- to Towers Watson, a human-resources quarters to more than 90 percent.” Financial Insecurity consulting firm, only 57.3 percent of But the idea of enrolling workers Americans have enough in their retire - automatically into retirement savings ven as federal officials debate the ment accounts to replace one year’s accounts may run into opposition in E affordability of Social Security and worth of working salary. Only 10.9 per - Congress because of budget concerns. Medicare as the population ages, in - cent had more than four times their Obama’s deficit commission last year dividual Americans are increasingly current salary saved up. 39 recommended lowering the cap on concerned about their own ability to Because most people are going to annual contributions allowed to such support themselves during retirement. be retired more than a few years, that retirement savings accounts. 40 Even before the financial crisis of presents a problem. For most, Social Aside from putting more money 2008, income and wealth inequality Security will represent the bulk of their aside for retirement, individuals will was growing among seniors. “Back in retirement income, but benefits aver - also come to rely more on income 2004, the top 5 percent of the baby age only about $14,000 per year. earned later in life — whether by stay - boomers controlled more than half of “Only about half of workers are ing in their old job longer or finding the assets,” says Diane Oakley, exec - in any kind of retirement plan a new one after “retiring,” many econ - utive director of the National Institute through their employers,” says the omists believe. on Retirement Security in Washington. Urban Institute’s Johnson. “People don’t “If people want to have a secure “The bottom half had less than 3 per - make the most of their 401(k) plans retirement, they really should work cent of the assets.” — they don’t contribute the maximum, longer,” says Alicia Munnell, director She hopes lower-income Americans or at all.” of the Center for Retirement Re - have been able to save more for re - search at Boston College. “There’s an tirement since then, but stock market enormous benefit in terms of what losses and the collapse of the hous - Automatic Enrollment your Social Security benefits and ing bubble make that unlikely. 401(k) accounts will be. And then, In a recent poll, “78 percent say ost workers have to sign up for you have [fewer] years over which they can’t save enough on their own M 401(k) plans, but Johnson favors to spread your savings. All we’re to be secure in retirement,” says Brian automatic enrollment. Automatic en - talking about, basically, is three to Perlman, president and CEO of Mathew rollment plans would allow employ - four more years. We’re not talking Greenwald & Associates, a market re - ers to deduct part of each paycheck about into your 90s.” search firm in Washington. “People’s and put the money toward employ - beliefs are that it’s harder and harder ees’ retirement, unless a worker made to do that.” the express decision to opt out. Government Cutbacks The risk for retirement has shifted “We’ve run some simulations,” more onto individuals, Oakley says. Johnson says. “If most people behave ost government workers can From 1980 to 2008, she says, the per - as we expect they would, based on M count on a relatively comfort - centage of private-sector workers cov - past experience, automatic enrollment able retirement. In contrast to private- ered by defined-benefit pension plans would increase retirement incomes for sector employees, about 90 percent of — which offer a guaranteed income low- and moderate-income people by state and local government workers throughout retirement — dropped from about 20 percent.” are enrolled in defined-benefit pro - 38 percent to 20 percent. The Obama administration supports grams. Meanwhile, defined-contribution the idea of automatic enrollment. The But the disparity between the plans plans, such as 401(k) plans, have grown. administration would like employers, offered to government workers and These plans, which shift the burden even if they don’t offer 401(k) accounts those at private companies, along with for retirement savings onto individu - of their own, to enroll their workers severe budget problems confronting als, have certain tax advantages, but in some kind of retirement account. state and local government workers,

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 591 AGING POPULATION

is increasing pressure on retirement State and local retirement accounts powers that would allow him to change benefits in the public sector, too. might be more than $1 trillion in the retirement-benefit formulas. 42 The gap between what states had red, but union leaders say it’s unfair to Reed warns that he will have to promised to pay out in pensions and blame government workers because leg - lay off two-thirds of the city’s work retirement health benefits and the islatures failed to make scheduled pay - force if he can’t achieve significant assets they have to pay them had ments to pension funds over the years. savings in retirement-benefit costs. grown to more than $1.26 trillion by Better to blame Wall Street, they What consumed $65 million of the the end of the 2009 budget year, ac - say, for racking up record profits even city’s budget a decade ago already ac - cording to the Pew Center on the as large-scale investment losses have counts for $250 million and half the States. 41 Some economists say the blown a hole through pension ac - city’s current budget shortfall. Retire - gap is even larger. counts. “They’ve blamed public em - ment costs could rise to as much as $650 million annually over the next few years, Reed says. In Reed’s mind, it’s simply a math problem. “We are draining money out “We are draining money out of services and of services and pouring them into re - tirement benefits,” Reed says. “How - pouring them into retirement benefits. ever you define unsustainable, it’s un - sustainable.” However you define unsustainable, Public-employee unions concede that Reed’s complaints are borne out it’s unsustainable.” of real problems with San Jose’s fi - nances. They don’t agree that his ap - — Mayor Chuck Reed proach is the best way to address those San Jose, Calif. problems, however. And union leaders in San Jose, like their colleagues else - where, think stripping public employ - ees of promised benefits will under - mine one of the few pockets of retirement security. “It’s perfectly understandable that About a dozen states have altered ployees for problems they’ve never workers in the private sector are wor - their pension systems over the past caused in the first place,” says Randi ried about their retirement security,” couple of years, according to the Na - Weingarten, president of the American says John Liu, New York City’s comp - tional Conference of State Legislatures. Federation of Teachers. troller. “But to scapegoat public em - Most have made moves such as Patrick O’Connor, an alderman in ployees will fuel a race to the bottom putting new employees into 401(k)- Chicago, agrees that unions have a point in our country.” style accounts, rather than enrolling when they accuse government officials Yet, further cutbacks appear in - them in defined-benefit plans. of not properly funding promised ben - evitable, even for government work - efits. Still, he argues, cities and states ers who have long counted on ben - have no choice but to cut back on efits that would allow them to retire Math and Politics benefits that are no longer affordable. free of financial anxiety. State officials “Government can’t blame the unions appear to have lost some of their ini - ut some governors and lawmak - in total,” O’Connor says. “Government tial enthusiasm for moving to 401(k)- B ers have sought changes in re - is what put the benefits in place. But style plans, however, because of the tirement coverage for current workers I don’t think anybody who looks at enormous upfront costs in switching as well. The battle over retirement pension plans thinks they can be fund - from traditional pensions. In Ken - benefits has turned political, most no - ed at the levels they’re at.” tucky, increased costs are estimated tably in Wisconsin, where legislation In San Jose, Calif., Mayor Chuck at $8 billion over 15 years. Nevada to strip most public employees of col - Reed declared a state of “fiscal emer - would run through $1.2 billion in just lective bargaining rights led to weeks gency” in May, hoping he can per - two years . 43 of large-scale protests at the capital. suade voters to give him additional Continued on p. 594

592 CQ Researcher At Issue:

Shoyes uld the retirement age be raised?

ANDREW G. BIGGS NANCY ALTMAN AND RESIDENT SCHOLAR , ERIC KINGSON AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE CO-CHAIRS , S TRENGTHEN SOCIAL SECURITY CAMPAIGN WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , JULY 2011 WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , JULY 2011

ocial Security’s retirement age should not be increased for o reduce unemployment during the 1961 recession, and in anyone on the verge of retirement, but there’s a good recognition that many Americans were unable to work s case for doing so over coming decades, as the Baby t until age 65, Congress allowed men to claim reduced So - Boomers retire and the population ages. cial Security benefits at age 62, just as it had for women in In 1950, the average retiree claimed Social Security benefits 1956. Speaking in support, Democratic Ohio Rep. Charles Vanik at age 68.5 and lived to around 76. Today, a typical retiree said that “if 2 million male workers eventually retire under this claims benefits at 63 and will live an additional two decades. program, 2 million job opportunities will be created.” Americans today live almost one-third of their adult lives in Ironically, with unemployment topping 9 percent, many in retirement, supported by an increasing tax burden on their Congress today favor increasing Social Security’s full retirement kids and grandkids. This isn’t simply unfair to future genera - age. This is the wrong policy today, would have been wrong tions. It is also a waste of human talent. in 1961 and will be wrong in the future. Are there some people who can’t work longer? Of course. A retirement age increase is mathematically indistinguishable And for them, early retirement or disability benefits remain an from a benefit cut, and ill-advised because benefits are too low. option. But it would be strange in today’s service economy if Congress has already increased the retirement age from 65 to 67, Americans, wyho work mosetly in offices,s could not work as a 13 percent cunt for people born ao fter 1960. A further increase, long as prior generations who toiled in mines, mills and farms. from 67 to 69, would be another 13 percent cut for retired work - Indeed, our longer lives are also healthier lives. According ers, no matter whether they claim benefits at age 62, age 70, or to the National Center for Health Statistics, among individuals any age in between, and translates into lower benefits for many ages 65-74 the share describing themselves as in fair or poor spouses and widow(er)s. Benefits are modest, averaging about health dropped from 25.1 percent in 1983 to 18.5 percent in $14,000, and the retirement prospects for persons in their 40s and 2007. Overall, 75 percent of individuals over 65 report being early 50s are already dimmed by diminishing pension protections, in good, very good or excellent health. shrinking 401(k) and IRA retirement savings, unemployment and It’s easy to scare people — for instance, President Obama’s declining home values. Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform would in - Retirement-age increases especially burden lower-wage and mi - crease the retirement age to 69. But this would apply only to nority workers, who often have no choice but to retire early. It is people who haven’t even been born yet and at retirement well-known that many workers must stop work because of seri - would live on average to age 88 — almost 10 years longer ous health and physical challenges; still others face age discrimina - than they did when Social Security started in the 1930s. tion and job loss. Sixty-two percent of Latino males and 53 per - It is true that life expectancies have risen faster for high- cent of older black male workers are in physically demanding or earners than for low-income Americans. This is why almost difficult jobs, compared with 42 percent of their white male coun - every reform plan that raises the retirement age also makes terparts. By retiring early, they claim permanently reduced benefits. Social Security more progressive, by boosting benefits for low- A hardship exemption for these categories of workers has never earners while trimming them for the rich. been found to be politically feasible or workable. One option is to let the retirement age rise to 67 as sched - Lower-wage workers, on average, have seen little or no in - uled, then increase it in future years as life spans rise. If life crease in life expectancy. Over the past quarter-century, the life expectancies increase quickly, then the retirement age will fol - expectancy of upper-income men increased by five years while low; if life spans stay constant, the retirement age won’t need life expectancy among lower-income men increased by only to increase further. By itself, this would fix nearly one-quarter one year and that of lower-income women actually declined. of Social Security’s deficit. For all these reasons, Congress should follow the will of Mathematically, we can’t fix the entire entitlement deficit by the American people, who reject increasing the retirement raising taxes. And Medicare is far more likely to require tax age. Congress should consider eliminating Social Security’s increases than Social Security. So it only makes sense to re - projected shortfall by scrapping the cap on earnings subject duce costs where we can. Increasing the retirement age is a to Social Security’s FICA contributions, as the American peo - reasonnao ble response to longer lives. ple strongly favor.

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 593 AGING POPULATION

Continued from p. 592 in Medicare as there are today, ac - “There’s no question that by 2020, Even the well-funded Pentagon is cording to AARP. changes will have been made,” she worried about whether it can afford “Social Security has pretty much an - says. “What I’m worried about is that to fund retirement benefits, including ticipated the aging population and built changes may have been forced upon health care, at the levels soldiers and up a very large trust fund,” says Rother, us — changes made because of mar - sailors have come to expect. AARP’s policy director. “Medicare is the kets will be much more painful.” Retiree pay will cost the Depart - place where the stress shows.” Not everyone thinks some kind ment of Defense about $50 billion next Health care costs are bound to be of fiscal crisis is inevitable. Blahous, year, according to the Obama admin - driven higher by an older popula - the Hoover Institution fellow and So - istration’s proposed fiscal 2012 bud - tion. Some worry Congress won’t be cial Security trustee, says he’s pes - get. Military health costs, which have able to agree on ways to significantly simistic, but not because he worries doubled over the past decade, will run reduce growth in entitlement pro - the country will face “economic Ar - even more, with a fair share going to grams and thereby reduce the fed - mageddon.” coverage of military retirees. eral deficit. Instead, Blahous worries that con - “We in the Department of Defense “I just think the two parties are kind tinuing unbridled growth in major are on the same path that General of locked in cement on this stuff,” says entitlement programs will mean Motors found itself on,” retired Marine Hewitt of the Coalition for Affordable “we’ll have more expensive govern - Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, who advis - Health Care. ment than we’ve ever had before,” es the Pentagon on financial opera - The question of whether Congress he says. “People’s after-tax income tions, told NPR. “General Motors did will change entitlements really depends will not have the growth we’ve seen not start out to be a health care com - on the attitudes of the voting public, in the past.” pany that occasionally built an auto - he says. “I frankly don’t think that fis - There are some positive predic - mobile. Today, we’re on the path in cal conservatives are going to be able tions. The Urban Institute’s Johnson the Department of Defense to turn it to hold the line, because baby boomers says widowhood is becoming less into a benefits company that may oc - in the end are going to decide they common. “Men are living longer, casionally kill a terrorist.” 44 don’t want to defund their retirement,” and the differences between men Robert Gates, who stepped down Hewitt says. and women’s mortality is lessening. as Defense Secretary June 30, said the Myers, the USC demographer, says Widowhood is still associated with military may have to consider moving politicians will need to appeal to poverty.” to a 401(k)-style plan. Financial prob - older voters to make big policy Still, Johnson expects income in - lems make some sort of change to the changes. Older Americans may love equality among the aged to continue Pentagon’s pension and retirement their entitlements, but they’ll have to to grow and more older Americans health formulas inevitable, he told De - be convinced that younger, working- will need to work longer. Others say fense News. “We are way behind the age people need money left over for policy changes to health coverage are private sector in this.” 45 productive investments in areas such inevitable, despite the political oppo - as education and infrastructure — and sition engendered both by President shouldn’t be saddled with crippling Obama’s 2010 health care-expansion debt, Myers says. law and the House GOP’s current ef - OUTLOOK “The only winning political strate - fort to limit Medicare growth. gy is not to fight [older voters] but “We’re going to be moving more persuade them it’s in their interest,” and more toward managed care,” says Myers says. “I believe they control the Binstock, the Case Western Reserve Political Prospects electorate for the next 20 years, and health policy professor, “in the sense we don’t have 20 years to wait.” that there’ll be a fixed budget in terms iven the costs associated with Budget realities will force changes of care for older people.” Older peo - G aging — particularly those in - to entitlement programs in the next ple will be hurt as a result, Binstock volving medical care — some econo - decade, says MacGuineas of the New contends. mists are growing pessimistic about American Foundation. And, she says, But the New America Foundation’s the country’s long-term budget health. waiting until financial markets force Longman isn’t convinced. A move to - By the time the last of the boomers fiscal changes, as has been happen - ward some form of managed care will have turned 65, in 2029, there will be ing in European countries such as lead to better health outcomes than nearly twice as many people enrolled Greece, won’t be pleasant. the current U.S. health system, which

594 CQ Researcher is prone to ill-informed treatment and 4 For background, see Marcia Clemmitt, “Na - 13 “Life Expectancy for Social Security,” Social mistakes, he says. tional Debt,” CQ Researcher , March 18, 2011, Security Administration, www.ssa.gov/history/ “I would hope in 10 years, we have pp. 241-264. lifeexpect.html . turned the corner on the health care 5 For background, see the following CQ Re - 14 For background, see Kenneth Jost, “Public- thing,” Longman says. “The idea that searcher reports: Marcia Clemmitt, “Health- Employee Unions,” CQ Researcher , April 8, we’re going to let people go get any Care Reform,” June 11, 2010, pp. 505-528, 2011, pp. 313-336; and Alan Greenblatt, “Pen - updated May 24, 2011; Beth Baker, “Treating sion Crisis,” CQ Researcher , Feb. 17, 2006, care they want from anybody they Alzheimer’s,” March 4, 2011, pp. 193-216; Alan pp. 145-168. want, that’s not going to work.” Greenblatt , “Aging Baby Boomers,” Oct. 19, 15 For background, see the center’s Web page Longman says the outlook is 2007, pp. 865-888; and Marcia Clemmitt, “Car - on its “National Retirement Risk Index” pub - “gloomy” but that it won’t be impos - ing for the Elderly,” Oct. 13, 2006, pp. 841-864. lications at http://crr.bc.edu/special_projects/ sible to turn things around. As long 6 Richard Wolf, “Medicare to Swell With Boomer national_retirement_risk_index.html . as health care is restructured and “as Onslaught,” USA Today , Jan 1. 2011, http:// 16 See Annual Report of the Medicare Trustees, long as today’s young people don’t abcnews.go.com/Politics/medicare-swell-baby- Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, forget to have children,” the U.S. should boomer-onslaught/story?id=12504388 . May 13, 2011, www.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/ be able to care for its growing senior 7 From remarks at “The 2011 Medicare Trustees downloads/tr2011.pdf . 17 population, he says. Report: The Baby Boomer Tsunami,” American “Choosing The Nation’s Fiscal Future,” Na - But fewer people are having chil - Enterprise Institute, May 16, 2011. tional Academies Press (2010), p. 79, available 8 See, for instance, “CNN Poll: Majority Gives at www.ourfiscalfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/ dren — and certainly fewer are hav - Thumbs Down to Ryan Medicare Plan,” CNN.org, fiscalfuture_full_report.pdf . ing multiple children, notes Fishman, June 1, 2011, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn. 18 “Strengthening Medicare: Better Health, the author of Shock of Gray. “We’re com/2011/06/01/cnn-poll-majority-gives-thumbs- Better Care, Lower Costs,” Centers for Medicare about a generation away from chil - down-to-ryan-plan /. and Medicaid Services, www.cms.gov/apps/ dren having no brothers and sisters, 9 Laura Meckler, “Key Seniors Association Piv - files/medicare-savings-report.pdf . no aunts and uncles, no cousins,” he ots on Benefit Cut,” The Wall Street Journal , 19 Matthew DoBias, “Medicare’s Actuary Paints says. “People may be looking contin - June 17, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/ a Darker Picture Than Trustees,” National uously for more family supports, but SB10001424052702304186404576389760955403 Journal.com , May 23, 2011, www.nation - the family just won’t be there.” 414.html . aljournal.com/healthcare/medicare-s-actuary- 10 The prospect of fewer children For background, see Thomas J. Billitteri, paints-a-darker-picture-than-trustees-20110523 . 20 and longer life expectancy means the “Middle-Class Squeeze,” CQ Researcher , March Emily Ethridge, “Republicans Decry Medicare 6, 2009, pp. 201-224. Cost-Control Panel While Seeking Broad Cuts,” median age will continue to rise. No 11 Employee Benefit Research Institute, “The CQ HealthBeat , June 8, 2011. matter the difficulties posed by the 2011 Retirement Confidence Survey: Confi - 21 “CBO’S 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook ,” aging of the baby boom generation, dence Drops to Record Lows, Reflecting ‘the Congressional Budget Office, www.cbo. gov/doc. they won’t be solved by that gener - New Normal,’ ” March 2011, www.ebri.org/pdf/ cfm?index=12212 . ation’s passing. surveys/rcs/2011/EBRI_03-2011_No355_RCS- 22 Jonathan Lemire and Erin Einhorn, “Mayor “The boomers may seem like a large 11.pdf . Bloomberg Unveils $65.6 Billion Budget,” cohort of older people,” Fishman says, 12 “U.S. Death Rate Falls for 10th Straight New York Daily News , Feb. 17, 2011, http:// “but the median age is increasing and Year,” Centers for Disease Control, March 16, articles.nydailynews.com/2011-02-17/local/286 that won’t turn around.” 2011, www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2011/p03 28742_1_president-michael-mulgrew-mayor- 16_deathrate.html . bloomberg-teacher-layoffs .

Notes About the Author

1 “Double Jeopardy For Baby Boomers Prov - Alan Greenblatt covers foreign affairs for National Pub - ing Care For Their Parents,” MetLife Mature lic Radio. He was previously a staff writer at Governing Market Institute, June 2001, p. 2, www.metlife. magazine and CQ Weekly , where he won the National com/assets/cao/mmi/publications/studies/2011/ Press Club’s Sandy Hume Award for political journalism. mmi-caregiving-costs-working-caregivers.pdf . He graduated from San Francisco State University in 1986 2 For background, see Thomas J. Billitteri, “Re - and received a master’s degree in English literature from thinking Retirement,” , June 19, CQ Researcher the University of Virginia in 1988. For the CQ Researcher , 2009, pp. 549-572. he wrote “Confronting Warming,” “Future of the GOP ” and 3 Matt Sedensky, “Number of 100-Year-Olds is Booming in U.S.,” The Associated Press, “Immigration Debate.” His most recent CQ Global Researcher April 26, 2011, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ reports were “Attacking Piracy” and “Rewriting History.” 20110426/ap_on_re_us/us_centenarian_boom .

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 595 AGING POPULATION

23 “As Boomers Wrinkle,” The Economist , Dec. 29, 2010, www.economist.com/node/17800237? story_id=17800237 . FOR MORE INFORMATION 24 Ted C. Fishman, Shock of Gray (2011), p. 13. 25 AARP , 601 E St., N.W., Washington, DC 20049 ; (888) 687-2277 ; www.aarp.org . Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Gray - The largest advocacy organization for older Americans. ing of the Great Powers (2008), p. 7. 26 Paul C. Light, Baby Boomers (1988), p. 10. American Society on Aging , 71 Stevenson St., Suite 1450, San Francisco, CA 27 Herbert S. Klein, “The U.S. Baby Bust in 94105 ; (415) 974-9600 ; www.asaging.org . Founded as the Western Gerontological Historical Perspective,” in Fred R. Harris., ed., Society; offers programs and online learning for professionals in health care, so - The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who cial services, government and other fields who seek to improve the quality of life Will Pay the Taxes? (2006), p. 115. for older adults. 28 Light, op. cit. , p. 23. 29 Steve Gillon, Boomer Nation: The Largest and Boston College , Center for Retirement Research, Hovey House, 140 Common - Richest Generation Ever and How It Changed wealth Ave., Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 ; (617) 552-1762 ; crr.bc.edu . Conducts re - America (2004), p. 1. search on issues related to retirement, particularly finance and health. 30 Ibid. , p. 6. 31 Klein., op. cit. , p. 173. Center for Strategic and International Studies , Global Aging Initiative, 1800 K St., 32 Jeremy Greenwood, Ananth Seshadri and N.W., Washington, DC 20006 ; (202) 887-0200 ; csis.org/program/global-aging-initiative . Guillaume Vandenbroucke, “The Baby Boom Conducts research and education programs on long-term economic, social and geopolitical implications of demographic change in the United States and abroad. and Baby Bust.” American Economic Review , 2005, p. 183. Employee Benefit Research Institute , 1100 13th St., N.W., Suite 878, Washing - 33 William Sterling and Stephen Waite, Boomer - ton, DC 20005 ; (202) 659-0670 ; www.ebri.org . Conducts research on employee nomics: The Future of Money in the Upcoming benefits, including pensions and defined-contribution plans such as 401(k)s. Generational Warfare (1998), p. 3. 34 President George W. Bush, State of the National Association of Area Agencies on Aging , 1730 Rhode Island Ave., Union address, Jan. 31, 2006, www.washing N.W., 4th Floor, Washington, DC 20036 ; (202) 872-0888 ; www.n4a.org . Umbrella tonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/ organization for local area aging agencies. 31/AR2006013101468.html . 35 Jonathan Weisman, “Skepticism of Bush’s National Institute on Aging , Building 31, Room 5C27, 31 Center Dr., MSC Social Security Plan Is Growing,” The Wash - 2292, Bethesda, MD 20892 ; (301) 496-1752 ; www.nia.nih.gov . Leads the federal ington Post , March 15, 2005, p. A1, www.wash government’s scientific effort to study the nature of aging. ingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35231-2005 Mar14.html . National Institute on Retirement Security , 1730 Rhode Island Ave., N.W., 36 “Opposition to Ryan Plan Among Older, Suite 207, Washington, DC 20036 ; (202) 457-8190 ; www.nirsonline.org . Studies Attentive Americans,” Pew Research Center, retirement-income issues such as pensions. June 6, 2011, http://people-press.org/2011/ 06/06/opposition-to-ryan-medicare-plan-from- Urban Institute , Program on Retirement Policy, 2100 M St., N.W., Washington, older-attentive-americans /. DC 20037 ; (202) 833-7200 ; www.retirementpolicy.org . Conducts research on issues 37 Sheryl Nance-Nash, “Caring for Aging Parents relevant to retirement, such as Social Security, long-term care and unemployment rates among older Americans. Will Cost Boomers $3 Trillion,” AOL Daily Finance , June 15, 2011, www.dailyfinance.com/ UCLA , Center for Policy Research on Aging, 3250 Public Policy Building, Box 2011/06/15/caring-for-aging-parents-will-cost- 951656, Los Angeles, CA 90095 ; (310) 794-5908 ; www.spa.ucla.edu . Studies major boomers-3-trillion /. policy and political issues surrounding aging; devotes particular attention to issues 38 For background, see Marcia Clemmitt, “In - relating to ethnic populations. come Inequality,” CQ Researcher , Dec. 3, 2010, pp. 989-1012. 39 See, “Retirement Attitudes,” Towers Watson, Study Says,” Bloomberg, April 25, 2011, 21, 2011, www.stateline.org/live/details/story? September 2010, www.towerswatson.com/assets/ www.bloomberg. com/news/2011-04-26/u-s- contentId=582585 . pdf/2717/TowersWatson-Retirement-Attitudes_ states-pension-fund- deficits-widen-by-26-pew- 44 Tamara Keith, “Health Care Costs New NA-2010-17683.pdf . center-study-says.html . Threat to U.S. Military,” NPR, June 7, 2011, www. 40 “Will Congress Slash Your 401(k) Tax Break,” 42 Elizabeth Lesly Stevens, “San Jose Mayor npr.org/2011/06/07/137009416/u-s-military-has- Reuters Wealth, June 16, 2011, http://blogs. Declares State of ‘Fiscal Emergency,’ ” The Bay new-threat-health-care-costs . reuters.com/reuters-wealth/2011/06/16/will- Citizen , May 21, 2011, www.nytimes.com/2011/ 45 Vago Muradian, “Q&A: Robert Gates, U.S. congress-slash-your-401k-tax-break /. 05/22/us/22bcstevens.html . Defense Secretary,” Defense News , June 13, 41 William Selway, “U.S. States Pension 43 Stephen C. Fehn, “States Overhaul Pensions 2011, p. 32, www.defensenews.com/story.php? Fund Deficits Widen by 26%, Pew Center But Pass On 401(k)-Style Plans,” Stateline , June i=6792060&c=FEA&s=INT .

596 CQ Researcher July 15, 2011 596 Bibliography Selected Sources

Books Is there such a thing as a Medicare voting bloc? Some po - litical scientists suggest there increasingly could be pitched po - Fishman , Ted C. , Shock of Gray , Scribner , 2010 . litical battles between generations over government resources. The author, a former financial trader, uses statistics and sketches of representative individuals to portray how aging Ludden , Jennifer , “Boomers Take the ‘Retire’ Out of Retire - is presenting fiscal, health and economic challenges to coun - ment,” NPR.org , Jan. 1, 2011 , www.npr.org/2011/01/01/13 tries including Japan, China and the United States. 2490242/boomers-take-the-retire-out-of-retirement . As baby boomers reach age 65, many are optimistic, but Gillon , Steve , Boomer Nation: The Largest and Richest Gen - a bit more than half may not be able to maintain current eration Ever and How It Changed America , Free Press , 2004 . living standards in retirement. The History Channel’s Gillon writes a sympathetic history of the boomers, whose birth, he says, is the “single greatest Rucker , Philip , “NY Race Is Referendum on GOP Medicare demographic event in American history.” Plan,” The Washington Post , May 15, 2011 , www.washing tonpost.com/politics/ny-special-election-becomes-refer Pearce , Fred , The Coming Population Crash and Our endum-on-gop-medicare-plan/2011/05/15/AFnoVR4G_ Planet’s Surprising Future , Beacon Press , 2010 . story.html?hpid=z3 . A former New Scientist news editor traces the history of Democrats successfully test a strategy they intend to use in population changes, looking at past state-sponsored efforts 2012, castigating Republicans for looking to overhaul Medicare. at population control and the implications for possible popu - lation decline in decades to come. Studies and Reports

Articles Arno , Peter S. , and Deborah Viola , “Double Jeopardy for Baby Boomers Caring for Their Parents,” MetLife Mature Market “As Boomers Wrinkle,” The Economist , Dec. 29, 2010 , Institute , June 2011 , www.metlife.com/assets/cao/mmi/pub www.economist.com/node/17800237?story_id=17800237 . lications/studies/2011/mmi-caregiving-costs-working-care Aging baby boomers will resist any cuts to their entitlements. givers.pdf . Nearly 10 million adult children over age 50 care for their Brownstein , Ronald , “The Gray and the Brown: The Gen - aging parents. erational Mismatch,” National Journal , July 24, 2010 ; www. nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-gray-and-the-brown- Cohn , D’Vera , and Paul Taylor , “Baby Boomers Approach the-generational-mismatch-20100724 . 65 — Glumly,” Pew Research Center , December 2010 , http:// The United States is seeing a divergence in attitudes and pri - pewsocialtrends.org/files/2010/12/Boomer-Summary-Re orities between a heavily nonwhite population of younger peo - port-FINAL.pdf . ple and an overwhelmingly white cohort of older people. As they approach 65, boomers continue to be accepting of changes in social trends and aren’t ready to concede they Fehr , Stephen C. , “States Overhaul Pensions But Pass have reached old age. on 401(k)-Style Plans,” Stateline , June 21, 2011 , www.state line.org/live/details/story?contentId=582585 . Frey , William , “America’s Diverse Future,” Brookings In - Pensions for state government workers are badly under - stitution , April 2011 , p. 10 , www.brookings.edu/~/media/ funded, but officials are still wary of switching employees Files/rc/papers/2011/0406_census_diversity_frey/0406_ to retirement savings accounts. census_diversity_frey.pdf . The 2010 census showed that the number of white and Hare , Kristin , “Older Americans Are Working Longer,” black children shrank, while there was significant growth St. Louis Beacon , April 24, 2011 , www.stlbeacon.org/issues- among Hispanics and Asians younger than 18. politics/172-Economy/109733-retiring-retirement-americans- are-working-longer- . Jackson , Richard , and Neil Howe with Rebecca Strauss and Ten years ago, 4 million people age 65 and older were Keisuke Nakashima , “The Graying of the Great Powers: working or looking for jobs. By March, that number had in - Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century,” Center creased to 7 million. for Strategic and International Studies , 2008 , www.aging society.org/agingsociety/publications/public_policy/CSIS Johnson , Kirk , “Between Young and Old, A Political Col - major_findings.pdf . lision,” The New York Times , June 3, 2011 , www.nytimes. The report offers a comprehensive survey of aging trends com/2011/06/04/us/politics/04elders.html . in the developed and developing world.

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 597 The Next Step: Additional Articles from Current Periodicals

Community totally disabled, while the reality is often somewhere in between. Carreras , Jessica , “Golden Gays,” Between the Lines (New York), July 8, 2010 . Employment As America ages, gays and lesbians have started to concentrate more and more on aging issues affecting their community. Collins , Margaret , “Survey Suggests Benefits Keep Older Workers from Leaving,” Sun-Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.), Meyers , Jessica , “Aging Boomers Heading to the ‘Burbs,” June 19, 2011 , p. D1 , www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl- Dallas Morning News , July 25, 2010 , p. A1 , www.dallas retaining-older-workers-20110617,0,6111086.story . news.com/news/community-news/prosper/headlines/2010 As fewer seniors maintain the savings they need to retire, 0725-as-aging-baby-boomers-head-to-suburbs-collin-county - employers are offering incentives to prolong aging workers’ to-feel-impact.ece . time in the labor force. Many retirees are moving to the suburbs only to find that their new communities are as unaccommodating for aging Gibson , Caitlin , “Aging’s Evolving Puzzle: How Washing - seniors as the cities they left. ton’s Communities, and Their Seniors, Must Adapt to a Changing Game,” The Washington Post , June 16, 2011 , Pyros , Andrea , “As Seniors Age, Families Face Myriad p. T19 , www.washingtonpost.com/local/agings-evolving- Challenges,” Poughkeepsie (N.Y.) Journal , Nov. 25, 2010 . puzzle-how-communities-and-their-seniors-must-adapt-to-a- Americans are taking in their aging parents in greater num - changing-game/2011/05/23/AGJ9FmWH_story.html . bers, spurring a rise in multigenerational homes. Unemployment and large elderly populations are driving Wash - ington, D.C., residents to develop programs aimed at keeping Wolfe , Warren , et al. , “Where Will Seniors Live?” Star-Tribune seniors active and healthy as they age in their own homes. (Minneapolis), Dec. 2, 2010 , p. A1 , www.startribune.com/life style/111163024.html . Johnson , Kirk , “Between Young and Old, a Political Col - Communities built for the elderly are sprouting up all over lision,” The New York Times , June 4, 2011 , p. A10 , www. the nation, but seniors are reluctant to inhabit them. nytimes.com/2011/06/04/us/politics/04elders.html . Unemployment and bankruptcy are growing among Americans Culture age 65 and over, contributing to a growing generational divide.

El Nasser , Haya , “Boomer Divide: Generation Spans 19 Years,” Health Care USA Today , Dec. 3, 2010 , p. A1 , www.usatoday.com/news/ nation/2010-12-03-1Atwoboomers03_CV_N.htm . Fitzgerald , Jay , “Retiring Boomers, Rising Health Costs Are Boomers are generally viewed as a massive, homogenous a Frightening Combination,” The Boston Globe , June 12, portion of the population, but not every member of the gen - 2011 , p. 1 , articles.boston.com/2011-06-12/business/29650 eration feels connected. 598_1_medicare-spending-medicare-today-medicare-modern ization-act . Horovitz , Bruce , “Big-Spending Boomers Bend Rules of No consensus has emerged on how to reform a Medicare sys - Marketing,” USA Today , Nov. 16, 2010 , p. A1 , www.usa tem that most experts agree is unsustainable in its current form. today.com/printedition/news/20101116/1aboomerbuyers 16_cv.art.htm . Rivkin , Jacqueline , “Not There to Care; With Ailing Parents, Marketing firms are increasingly switching their focus from Children Living Elsewhere Struggle to Balance Competing the young to the old as seniors wield more influence. Needs,” Newsday (New York), June 4, 2011 , p. B4 . Many working adults are struggling financially and emo - Jayson , Sharon , “Tired of the Baby Boomers; Other Gen - tionally to care for aging parents while maintaining a career. erations are Weary of Their Place in the Culture,” USA Today , Nov. 18, 2010 , p. D1 , www.usatoday.com/yourlife/ Sullivan , Julie , “Baby Boomers Set to Become Generation parenting-family/2010-11-18-boomerloathing18_CV_N.htm . Alzheimer’s With 1 in 8 Predicted to Get the Disease,” The boomer generation’s time in the spotlight may be ex - Oregonian (Portland), Jan. 28, 2011 , www.oregonlive.com/ hausting the rest of America’s patience. health/index.ssf/2011/01/baby_boomers_set_to_become_ gen.html . Tugend , Alina , “Fears, and Opportunities, on the Road to According to the Alzheimer’s Association, the diseases is Retirement,” The New York Times , June 4, 2011 , p. B5 , www. on track to become the “defining disease” of aging baby nytimes.com/2011/06/04/your-money/04shortcuts.html . boomers, yet research and treatment options are limited com - Stereotypes of seniors range from adventure-seeking to pared to other serious ailments, such as cancer.

598 CQ Researcher Innovations Gaps in educational attainment for minority students may present a challenge as the growing youth minority popula - Hamilton , Walter , “Elder Care Goes High Tech,” Los An - tion takes over in the labor force for retiring baby boomers. geles Times , June 17, 2011 , p. A1 , articles.latimes.com/ 2011/jun/17/business/la-fi-boomer-homes-20110617 . Tavernise , Sabrina , “In Census, Young Americans Increas - Companies are investing in technologies that allow seniors ingly Diverse,” The New York Times , Feb. 4, 2011 , p. A10, to live safely in their own homes for as long as possible. www.nytimes.com/2011/02/05/us/05census.html . The growth of an aging white population and a diverse Hawkins , Robert J. , “Seniors Facing Transit Trap,” San youth population has some analysts warning of the emer - Diego Union-Tribune , June 16, 2011 , p. B1 , www.sign gence of a “cultural generational gap.” onsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/15/lack-public-transpor tation-could-trap-aging-boomer . Political Implications Under criticism that retiring boomers may end up isolated be - cause of a lack of public transportation options, major metro - “Now is the Time to Prepare for Oklahoma’s Aging Pop - politan areas such as San Diego are searching for solutions. ulation,” The Oklahoman (Oklahoma City), June 5, 2011 , p. A18 , newsok.com/now-is-the-time-to-prepare-for-okla Otts , Chris , “Booming Future in Aging Care,” Courier- homas-aging-population/article/3573884 . Journal (Louisville, Ky.), Feb., 27, 2011 , p. A1 . Solidarity with seniors is increasingly becoming a political As baby boomers retire, the burgeoning aging-care industry necessity in Oklahoma. sees a golden opportunity for growth. Tsai , Michael , “Largest-Ever Generation Slips Toward the Life Expectancy Gray,” Honolulu Star-Advertiser (Hawaii), Nov. 15, 2011 , www.staradvertiser.com/news/20101115_Graying_of_ Lloyd , Janis , “Americans Aren’t Hitting Their Prime Until Hawaii.html . After 65,” USA Today , June 29, 2011 , p. D1 , www.usatoday. It may be too early to speculate on the political leanings com/LIFE/usaedition/2011-06-29-Wellnesscov_CV_U.htm . of boomers, who have traditionally been a generation de - America’s elderly are healthier than other age groups, in fined by change. part thanks to healthy habits and active lifestyles. Turner , Grace-Marie , and John Conyers Jr. , “Pro & Con: Mercado , Darla , “Lucky Genes Seen as Key to Long Life,” Should Congress, President Overhaul Medicare?” Atlanta Investment News (New York), Dec. 13, 2010 . Journal-Constitution , June 2, 2011 , p. A9 , www.ajc.com/ Though healthy habits play a role, researchers say good opinion/pro-con-should-congress-964399.html . genes are the key to a long life. Supporters of Medicare reform say the program is not sus - tainable in its current form; detractors say cost controls make Yen , Hope , “Men Narrow Women’s Population Advantage, drastic changes unnecessary. Census Shows; Society Likely Will Adapt as Men Live Longer,” The Associated Press , May 6, 2010 . While women still outlive men in America, the gender gap CITING CQ RESEARCHER in life expectancy is narrowing as the population ages. Sample formats for citing these reports in a bibliography Minorities include the ones listed below. Preferred styles and formats vary, so please check with your instructor or professor. Morello , Ca rol, and Dan Keating , “Census Offers New Proof that Hispanic, Asian Growth Skyrocketed in Past MLA STYLE Decade,” The Washington Post , March 24, 2011 , www. Jost, Kenneth. “Rethinking the Death Penalty.” CQ Researcher washingtonpost.com/local/new-census-portrait-hispanics - 16 Nov. 2001: 945-68. and-asians-skyrocketed-over-past-decade/2011/03/23/AB pKDQOB_story.html . APA S TYLE The 2010 Census revealed tremendous growth in Hispan - Jost, K. (2001, November 16). Rethinking the death penalty. ic and Asian populations while an aging white population stagnated. CQ Researcher, 11 , 945-968. CHICAGO STYLE Shawgo , Ron , “Minorities Drive Population Growth; Edu - cation Top Challenge,” Fort Wayne (Ind.) Journal Gazette , Jost, Kenneth. “Rethinking the Death Penalty.” CQ Researcher , May 1, 2011 , p. A1 , www.journalgazette.net/article/2011 November 16, 2001, 945-968. 0501/LOCAL10/305019920 .

www.cqresearcher.com July 15, 2011 599 In-depth Reports on Issues in the News

Are you writing a paper? Need backup for a debate? Want to become an expert on an issue? For more than 80 years, students have ?turned to CQ Researcher for in-depth reporting on issues in the news. Reports on a full range of political and social issues are now available. Following is a selection of recent reports:

Civil Liberties Education Health/Safety Government Secrecy, 2/11 School Reform, 4/11 Teen Drug Use, 6/11 Cybersecurity, 2/10 Crime on Campus, 2/11 Organ Donations, 4/11 Press Freedom, 2/10 Career Colleges, 1/11 Genes and Health, 1/11 Government and Religion, 1/10 Value of a College Education, 11/09 Food Safety, 12/10 Preventing Bullying, 12/10 Crime/Law Environment/Society Preventing Obesity, 10/10 Class Action Lawsuits, 5/11 Nuclear Power, 6/11 Cameras in the Courtroom, 1/11 Business Ethics, 5/11 Politics/Economy Death Penalty Debates, 11/10 Artificial Intelligence, 4/11 Foreign Aid and National Security, 6/11 Drone Warfare, 8/10 Wind Power, 4/11 Public-Employee Unions, 4/11 Prosecuting Terrorists, 3/10 Women and Sports, 3/11 Lies and Politics, 2/11 Legalizing Marijuana, 6/09 Animal Intelligence, 10/10 Income Inequality, 12/10 Upcoming Reports Manufacturing, 7/22/11 Future of Libraries, 7/29/11 U.S.-Pakistan Relations, 8/5/11

ACCESS CQ Researcher is available in print and online. For access, visit your library or www.cqresearcher.com. STAY CURRENT For notice of upcoming CQ Researcher reports or to learn more about CQ Researcher products, subscribe to the free e-mail newsletters, CQ Re - searcher Alert! and CQ Researcher News : http://cqpress.com/newsletters. PURCHASE To purchase a CQ Researcher report in print or electronic format (PDF), visit www.cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights licensing are also available. SUBSCRIBE Annual full-service CQ Researcher subscriptions—including 44 reports a year, monthly index updates, and a bound volume—start at $803. Add $25 for domestic postage.

CQ Researcher Online offers a backfile from 1991 and a number of tools to simplify research. For pricing information, call 800-834-9020, or e-mail [email protected].