V13 N42 Wednesday, June 27, 2007 Lugar moves Iraq center of gravity shows and was over- Voinovich follows; Reid, taken by them mid-day Warner call it ‘harbinger’ Tuesday. Even then, the coverage was more By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis along the lines of Lugar Hours before socialite Paris Hilton crossing Bush, as op- was released from jail, U.S. Sen. Richard posed to the broader, Lugar took to the U.S. Senate floor to thought-provoking per- “offer observations” on the Iraq War that spective Lugar provid- would end up rocking Washington, if not ed. All this occurred on America and the Middle East. the kind of bizarre day Lugar spent the next 45 minutes that in the future could detailing his angst over the flagging surge be described as a turn- and how it jeopardizes U.S. stature in the ing point for an empire Middle East and the world. He rejected a in consternation. Prior total withdrawal from Iraq, but said it has to Lugar’s speech and become apparent that “Iraqis don’t want to Hilton’s release, 50 high be Iraqis.” He urged a “Plan B” that would school students penned provide a path toward maintaining U.S. and delivered a letter to interests in the region - including energy President Bush plead- self-sufficiency at home - before the entire Sen. Lugar delivered a landmark speech on Iraq from the ing with him to reject process is short-circuited by the 2008 elec- Senate Floor on Monday, the day after one soldier torture. It came during tions. was killed in Iraq, and a second was buried in Hope, Ind. an intense debate in While CNN congressional cor- (Senate photo) the White House over respondent Dana Bush predicted it could the future of Guan- open the way for wavering GOP senators too timid to break tanamo Bay prison holding terrorists. And, there was with President Bush, the story barely nudged the Hilton the truly kooky story of Vice President Cheney asserting paparazzi orgy on the Tuesday network morning TV news See Page 3 What are Bayh’s veep odds?

By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON - With Hillary Clinton running an almost flawless race, some advisors to Sen. Evan Bayh are urging him to endorse the New York Senator’s campaign for President now. Clinton is known to value and reward loyalty and the thinking is “I think he sees us careening off a that Bayh will enhance his chances of cliff here.” landing in the number two spot with Clinton on the Democratic ticket with - Senate Foreign Relations Chairman an early endorsement. , saying Lugar’s views on the Bayh is almost certain to end up on the short-list of whichever Iraq surge have been “long held.” candidate wins the Democratic nomi- nation, whether it is Clinton, Obama, Edwards, or someone else. But the competition for making it to the Page 2 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

ticket is sure to be keen. In addition to The Howey Political Report is The Howey Political Report Bayh, the names most often mentioned published by NewsLink Inc. It PO Box 40265 are Sen. (if he falls Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. was founded in 1994. short in his bid to win the nomination), www.howeypolitics.com New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (also [email protected] running for the top spot), former Iowa Brian A. Howey, Publisher Gov. Tom Vilsack (who dropped out of Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Indianapolis Office: 317-506-0883. the race), and former Virginia Gov. Mark Writer Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. Warner (who opted out before running). Mark Curry, Washington Writer Washington, DC Office: 202-256-5822. Beverly Phillips, associate editor Other names mentioned less frequently Business Office: 317-254-0535. Jack E. Howey, Editor include Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Gov. Janet ©2007, The Howey Political Report. Subscriptions: Napolitano of Arizona, and Gov. Brian All rights reserved. Photocopying, Internet $350 annually HPR via e-mail; Schweitzer of . Few believe that forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any $550 annually HPR & HPR Daily Wire. form, in whole or part, is a violation of John Edwards, the 2004 Vice Presiden- Call 317-254-0535. federal law. tial nominee, or Hillary Clinton will end up in the 2nd spot on the ticket. Vice President is to try to find a running decision a questionable one in retro- As a former Governor and mate who can help the ticket win. The spect. U.S. Senator with substantial foreign overwhelming majority of voters do not Evan Bayh clearly meets two policy expertise, Bayh arguably has the vote on the basis of the Vice Presiden- of the four criteria. He is probably the strongest resume. The former chair of tial candidate. Yet, John F. Kennedy most presidential, and maybe the most the Democratic Leadership Council is ar- would not have been elected president qualified of any of the possible VP can- ticulate, telegenic, and projects a sooth- had Lyndon Johnson not been on the didates. His presidential run gives him ing centrist image. It doesn’t hurt his ticket to help him barely carry Texas. considerable experience on the national chances that he is sitting on a campaign John Kerry chose John Edwards, in part, stage. And, as a Midwestern moderate, war chest in excess of $10 million which with the hope that he might help the he would provide a good balance to could be used in a presidential cam- ticket carry North Carolina. In the end, Clinton. But it is doubtful whether Bayh paign. But realistically what are Bayh’s however, Edwards was not able to help could deliver Indiana, a state which chances to be chosen by the Democratic put North Carolina in play. has not voted Democratic since the LBJ Party’s standard bearer? Third, the nominee should landslide of 1964. And, there are those While over the course of seek balance for the ticket—balance in who question whether Bayh would add American history the vice presidential geography, ideology, and experience. excitement to the ticket, one of the selection process has produced some Thus, Ronald Reagan the con- reasons why his presidential campaign unpredictable, even unfortunate choic- servative without foreign policy experi- never took off. es, basic unwritten rules have emerged. ence chose George Bush the moderate Reportedly, Clinton and Bayh The primary rule, the Hippocratic Oath from Texas by-way of Connecticut who get along well and personal chemistry for choosing a running mate is “First do had more foreign policy experience than counts. But if Clinton is nominated, no harm.” Undoubtedly the best way to any other Vice President in recent times. there will be considerable pressure to avoid harm is to choose someone who Finally, the nominee should unite the party by nominating the run- is not only “presidential,” but also some- try to make a selection which creates ner-up, assuming Barack Obama contin- one who has already been vetted on a degree of excitement and interest in ues his strong showing. The prospect of the national stage. Tom Eagleton, the the ticket. The best example of this in a Clinton-Obama “dream ticket” gener- well-respected Missouri senator whom recent times is Bill Clinton who signaled ates both enthusiasm and trepidation George McGovern initially chose in 1972 generational change by picking Al Gore. among party faithful. Bill Richardson seemed like a safe choice. But the elec- The ticket which was showcased imme- also has an extremely strong resume, tion was all but over when it became diately on a bus trip through America’s but his campaign so far has only served known that Eagleton had concealed the heartland and generated excitement to reinforce his reputation for being fact he had undergone electric-shock that literally lasted until Election Day. In undisciplined. Both Tom Vilsack and treatments. On the other hand, failing 2000, Al Gore tapped Connecticut Sen. Mark Warner could probably help the to avoid harm will not necessarily sink Joe Lieberman because he thought it ticket win their home states, but neither a presidential campaign. Neither Spiro was an “out-of-the-box” decision that quite measure up to being presidential. Agnew nor Dan Quayle, both consid- might help him carry Florida, where All of which may make Evan Bayh both ered weak choices that created public there is a large Jewish population. But the strongest and safest choice for VP in relations problems for their campaigns, Lieberman’s poor performances debat- 2008. prevented their respective tickets from v ing Dick Cheney and then during the Sautter is a Democratic political winning the election. Florida Presidential Recount make that consultant based in Washington. The second rule for picking a Page 3 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Lugar: From page 1 HPR will cover Lugar-Nunn that he was actually part of the legislative branch and not trip to Russia in August restrained by executive privilege. Should America find itself a flagging, second rate INDIANAPOLIS - HPR Publisher Brian A. Howey will power in 2050, after one disastrous decision (i.e. the Iraq join U.S. Sen. and former Sen. Sam Nunn on War) followed by compounding poor ones, June 25, 2007, a week-long visit to Rus- could be one of the red letter dates kicking off the cascade. sia as they observe the 15th anniversary of the Lugar edges Warner for ‘breaking news’ Nunn-Lugar Act. CNN, MSNBC and Fox all gave Lugar’s Senate floor The tour will speech “Breaking News” status. CNN compared it to Sen. include a Nunn, Lugar Robert F. Kennedy breaking with President Johnson on the meeting with Russian Vietnam War. Commentators like David Gergen said it could President Putin; a tour have disastrous implications for President Bush. of the Russian nuclear A Lugar aide told CNN that in January, during a facility at Luch; Chemi- meeting with Bush and Virginia Republican Sen. John War- cal Weapons Destruction ner, Lugar privately expressed his doubts about the troop Facility at Shchuchye; Submarine Missile Dismantlement buildup, but he had not gone public with his misgivings Facility at Miass; and the Fissile Material Storage Facility at until Monday. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell ap- Mayak. Mayak is described in the new book “The Atomic pears to have urged Lugar to give this long-in-the-making Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor” by William speech. U.S. Sen. Joe Biden said on Tuesday that Lugar’s Langewiesche. views on the surge have been “long held.” HPR will be the only Indiana press traveling with Biden said, “I think he sees us careening off a cliff the Nunn-Lugar delegation. It will arrive in Moscow on Aug. here.” He called Lugar’s speech “a watershed.” Biden said 27 and depart for London on Sept. 1. Exclusive coverage of Bush’s surge strategy “is an absolute, abject failure.” Sen- the tour will be published in HPR and Indianapolis Monthly ate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor, “I Magazine. v believe Sen. Lugar’s words will be a turning point.” On Tuesday, Sen. George Voinovich sent a letter to Bush saying he would follow Lugar, calling for a “Plan E” for Tmes, “Frankly, I think they knew an operation was com- exit. U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh told the Fort Wayne Journal Ga- ing in Baquba. They watched the news. They understood zette, “He is right. President Bush’s strategy is not working. the surge. I think they were tipped off by us talking about Democrats and Republicans need to come together to chart the surge, the fact that we have a problem in Diyala Prov- a course that treats what’s happening on the ground with a ince.” far greater sense of With a September “snapshot” report urgency.” from Gen. David Petraeus a little more than two By Tuesday months away, Odierno’s statement on the squan- night, NBC Nightly dered Baquba mission was stunning. The surge is News was describ- fully staffed, but there is little time for loose lips ing the Lugar to be compromising major operations against al speech as a “turn- Qaeda in Mesopotamia. ing point” and ABC In Sunday’s New York Times, columnist called it “a tipping Frank Rich quoted Gen. William Odom, a senior point.” fellow at the Hudson Institute, as saying “when a Longtime Washington hand David Gergen noted senior senator from the president’s party says no” that “the center of gravity has moved” and added, “this the endgame will start. Rich predicted that “eyes will turn makes it all but inevitable we’ll be moving to a Plan B.” to” Warner. On Tuesday, Warner called Lugar’s remarks “a Presidential historian Michael Beschloss told NBC, harbinger for change in Iraq.” “This is big trouble for the president.” He compared it to Rich also predicted that the Bush administra- RFK splitting with LBJ. “Bobby Kennedy’s speech was about tion would use the sixth anniversary of Sept. 11 attacks divisions in the Democratic party. Richard Lugar’s speech to propagate the extension of the surge, similar to how does essentially the same thing.” it used the first anniversary in 2002 to build the case for On Friday, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the second invading Iraq (i.e. Condi Rice: “We don’t want the smoking ranking American commander in Iraq, told the New York gun to be a mushroom cloud”). Page 4 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

The White House contacted Lugar on Tuesday. lated on a partisan basis, with the protagonists on both “We take seriously his point of view because he is a seri- sides ignoring the complexities at the core of our situation.“ ous guy,” spokesman Tony Snow said. “On the other hand, Lugar said that the U.S. still has “viable options we also take seriously the efforts and the advice that the that could strengthen our position in the Middle East.” But president has gotten from his commanders on the ground he said that seizing those options “will require the Presi- and also the continuing cooperation not only with the dent to downsize the U.S. military’s role in Iraq and place commanders on the ground but also Ambassador (Ryan) much more emphasis on diplomatic and economic options. Crocker and working with our colleagues in the Iraqi gov- It will also require members of Congress to be receptive to ernment.” overtures by the President to construct a new policy outside the binary choice of surge versus withdrawal. We don’t Lugar’s 45-minute speech owe the President our unquestioning agreement, but we do Lugar may have pre-empted Warner on Monday. owe him and the American people our constructive engage- “In my judgment, our course in Iraq has lost contact with ment.“ our vital national security interests in the Middle East and Three points on Iraq beyond,” Lugar said. “Our continuing absorption with mili- Lugar laid out three perspectives on Iraq. tary activities in Iraq is limiting our diplomatic assertiveness 1. It is very doubtful that the leaders of Iraqi there and elsewhere in the world. The prospects that the factions are capable of implementing a political set- current ‘surge’ strategy will succeed in the way originally tlement in the short run. He noted that the Iraqi Parlia- envisioned by the President are very limited within the ment can barely achieve a quorum and that Prime Minister short period framed by our own domestic political debate.” Maliki and Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, have feuded and Lugar said the current political climate brings the did not speak to each other for the entire month of April. U.S. to the risk of a poor withdrawal. “Even if U.S. negotiators found a way to “The strident, polarized nature of that forge a political settlement among select- debate increases the risk that our ed representatives of the major sectarian involvement in Iraq will end in a poorly factions, these leaders have not shown planned withdrawal that undercuts our the ability to control their members at the vital interests in the Middle East,” Lugar local level,” Lugar said. “As David Brooks said. “Unless we recalibrate our strat- recently observed in the New York Times, egy in Iraq to fit our domestic political the fragmentation in Iraq has become so conditions and the broader needs of U.S. prevalent that Iraq may not even be able national security, we risk foreign policy to carry out a traditional civil war among failures that could greatly diminish our cohesive factions. Few Iraqis have demon- influence in the region and the world.” strated that they want to be Iraqis.” Lugar explained, “The current debate on Iraq in “American strategy must adjust to the reality that Washington has not been conducive to a thoughtful revi- sectarian factionalism will not abate anytime soon and sion of our Iraq policy. Our debate is being driven by par- probably cannot be controlled from the top,” Lugar said. tisan political calculations and understandable fatigue with 2. The fatigue of our military. Lugar said, “The bad news -- including deaths and injuries to Americans. window during which we can continue to employ Ameri- We have been debating and voting on whether to fund can troops in Iraqi neighborhoods without damaging our American troops in Iraq and whether to place conditions military strength or our ability to respond to other national on such funding. We have contemplated in great detail security priorities is closing.” whether Iraqi success in achieving certain benchmarks Lugar talked of swearing in 66 recruits at the In- should determine whether funding is approved or whether dianapolis 500 on May 27. “I heard personal stories of the a withdrawal should commence. I would observe that none 70-hour work weeks put in by recruiters to meet recruiting of this debate addresses our vital interests any more than goals,” Lugar reported. “The swearing-in ceremony was they are addressed by an unquestioned devotion to an ill- preceded by a briefing from Army officials here in Washing- defined strategy of ‘staying the course’ in Iraq.” ton who assured me that we are fielding the best equipped, Speaking to “my fellow Senators,” Lugar contended best trained, and most capable force we have ever had. that the “President is not the only American leader who will Yet, they also reported that the Army has exhausted its have to make adjustments to his or her thinking. Each of bench. Instead of resting and training for 3 to 12 months, us should take a step back from the sloganeering rhetoric brigades coming out of the field must now be ready almost and political opportunism that has sometimes character- immediately for redeployment.” ized this debate. The task of securing U.S. interests in the Lugar said that filling expanding ranks will be in- Middle East will be extremely difficult if Iraq policy is formu- creasingly difficult given trends in attitudes toward military Page 5 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

service. This has been measured by the Joint Advertising We risk becoming fixated on artificial notions of achieving Market Research and Studies Program, which produced victory or avoiding defeat, when these ill-defined con- a Propensity Update last September after extensive cepts have little relevance to our operations in Iraq. What research. The study found that only 1 in 10 youths has a is important is not the precise configuration of the Iraqi propensity to serve, the lowest percentage in the history government or the achievement of specific benchmarks, of such surveys. Sixty-one percent of youth respondents but rather how Iraq impacts our geostrategic situation in report that they will “definitely not serve.” This represents the Middle East and beyond.” a 7 percent increase in less than a year. These numbers are Lugar said that nations throughout the Middle directly attributable to policies in Iraq. East are scrambling to find their footing as regional power 3. The 2008 elections will inhibit the ability balances shift in unpredictable ways. “To determine our to establish a stable, multi-sectarian government in future course, we should separate our emotions and Iraq. Lugar said, “The President and some of his advisers frustrations about Iraq from a sober assessment of our may be tempted to pursue the surge strategy to the end fundamental national security goals. In my judgment, we of his administration, but such a course contains extreme should be concerned with four primary objectives: risks for U.S. national security. It would require 1. We have an interest in preventing the President to fight a political rear-guard Iraq or any piece of its territory from being holding action for more than a year and a half used as a safe haven or training ground for against Congressional attempts to limit, modify, terrorists or as a repository or assembly point or end military operations in Iraq. The result- for weapons of mass destruction. ing contentiousness would make cooperation 2. We have an interest in preventing on national security issues nearly impossible. It the disorder and sectarian violence in Iraq would greatly increase the chances for a poorly from upsetting wider regional stability. planned withdrawal from Iraq or possibly the The consequences of turmoil that draws neigh- broader Middle East region that could damage boring states into a regional war could be grave. U.S. interests for decades.” Such turmoil could topple friendly governments, Lugar continued: “We do not know whether the expand destabilizing refugee flows, close the Persian Gulf next president will be a Democrat or a Republican. But it is to shipping, or destroy key oil production or transportation certain that domestic pressure for withdrawal will continue facilities, thus diminishing the flow of oil from the region to be intense. A course change should happen now, while with disastrous results for the world economy. there is still some possibility of constructing a sustainable 3. We have an interest in preventing Iranian bipartisan strategy in Iraq. If the President waits until the domination of the region. An aggressive Iran would presidential election campaign is in full swing, the inten- pose serious challenges for Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, sity of confrontation on Iraq is likely to limit U.S. options. and other Arab governments. Any course we adopt In short, our political timeline will not support a rational should consider how it would impact the regional influ- course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is ence of Iran. initiated very soon.” 4. We have an interest in limiting the loss of U.S. credibility in the region and throughout the world Middle East as a result of our Iraq mission. Some loss of confidence Lugar attempted to cast a broader view of the in the has already occurred, but our subse- Middle East region and its importance to U.S. security. quent actions in Iraq may determine how we are viewed “We have been heavily involved in the region because we for a generation.” have enduring vital interests at stake,” Lugar explained. “We may make tactical decisions about the deployment or ‘The surge is not effective’ withdrawal of forces in Iraq, but we must plan for a strong Lugar said, “The current surge strategy is not an strategic position in the region for years to come. The vital- effective means of protecting these interests. Its pros- ity of the U.S. economy and the economies of much of the pects for success are too dependent on the actions of world depend on the oil that comes from the Persian Gulf. others who do not share our agenda. It lacks domestic The safety of the United States depends on how we react support that is necessary to sustain a policy of this type.” to nuclear proliferation in the region and how we combat Lugar said that a “total withdrawal from Iraq also terrorist cells and ideologies that reside there.” fails to meet our security interests. Such a withdrawal Lugar said that risk for decision makers is that “we would compound the risks of a wider regional conflict begin to see Iraq as a set piece -- as an end in itself, dis- stimulated by Sunni-Shia tensions. It would also be a tinct from the broader interests that we meant to protect. severe blow to U.S. credibility that would make nations in Page 6 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

the region far less likely to cooperate with us on shared cal increase in the miles per gallon of America’s auto interests. It would increase the potential for armed fleet. “The federal government has numerous tools conflict between Turkey and Kurdish forces in Iraq. It to make this happen, from direct federal support for would expose Iraqis who have worked with us to retribu- research, to government fleet purchasing, to market tion, increase the chances of destabilizing refugee flows, regulations and incentives,” Lugar said. “Incredibly, cars and undercut many economic and development projects in America today get less mileage per gallon than they currently underway in Iraq. It would also be a signal that did 20 years ago. Meanwhile, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, the United States was abandoning efforts to prevent Iraqi and fully electric cars are at or nearly at commercializa- territory from being used as a terrorist base.” tion, yet there is not enough incentive for consumers to buy them or producers to make them on the mass Shifting military posture scale necessary. For fiscal year 2008, the administra- Lugar said that during the Iraq War, “The United tion requested just $176 million for new vehicle technol- States has violated some basic national security precepts ogy research, an amount that was less than what was during our military engagement in Iraq. We have overes- requested five years ago. “ timated what the military can achieve, we have set goals Earlier this month, the Indianapolis Business that are unrealistic, and we have inadequately factored Journal reported that Symphony Motors would begin in the broader regional consequences of our actions. producing an electric car in Carmel. Perhaps most critically, our focus on Iraq has diverted us Lugar’s position on CAFE standards found from opportunities to change the world in directions that dissent in his own party, with U.S. Rep. Mark Souder, R- strengthen our national security.” Fort Wayne, predicting that they could “devastate” the He said that while he did not agree with every Northern Indiana auto, boat and RV manufacturing. recommendation of the Iraq Study Group, “the report provides a useful starting point for the development of a A quiet, tree-lined cemetery in Hope, Ind. ‘Plan B’ and a template for bipartisan cooperation on our On Sunday, the day before Lugar’s speech, Iraq strategy. In 2003, we witnessed the costs that came Sgt. Michael A. Bechert, a U.S. soldier fatally wounded with insufficient planning for the aftermath of the Iraq in Iraq, was laid to rest in a quiet, tree-lined spot in invasion. It is absolutely essential that we not repeat the Hope Moravian Cemetery next to his mother’s grave. same mistake. The longer we delay the planning for a re- That same day, Army Spec. Carter deployment, the less likely it is to be successful.“ A. Gamble Jr., 24, of Brownstown (pictured, left) died in Duraiya, Iraq, Connecting the fuel dot from wounds he suffered from ene- Lugar also made the connection to America’s my small-arms fire. He was the 87th dependence on Persian Gulf oil, a situation unchanged Hoosier to die in Iraq since February during the “Oil Presidency” of Bush-Cheney. 2003. “Many options exist for rapid progress in reducing The truly amazing elements our Persian Gulf oil dependence, but I would emphasize about this war is the detachment two,” Lugar said. “President Bush or his successor could of the American people. They are establish the national goal of making competitively priced frustrated by $3 a gallon gas. They biofuels available to every motorist in America. Such an don’t like the war. They will line the accomplishment would transform our transportation sec- streets in small towns when the tor and cut our oil import bill. It would require multiple bodies return from Iraq to be buried. But you don’t hear elements, including ensuring that virtually every new many complaints on conservative talk radio about losing car sold in America is a flexible fuel vehicle capable of a war. running on an 85 percent ethanol fuel known as E-85; We are losing this war due to incompetence. that at least a quarter of American filling stations have Hoosier Republicans still rally around Bush and Cheney, E-85 pumps; and that ethanol production from various unwilling to learn the lessons of retribution in 2006 elec- sources is expanded to as much as 100 billion gallons tions. In 2008, Republicans may be in for a devastating a year within the next 15 to 20 years. Such a campaign second lesson at the ballot box, even though there is could achieve the replacement of 6.5 million barrels of oil little protest on the street. per day by volume -- the rough equivalent of one third Lugar appears to understand this, even though of the oil used in America and one half of our current oil he is late in articulating the dangers that fly in the des- imports.” ert whirlwind. v Lugar said the president could commit to a radi- Page 7 Wednesday, June 27, A property tax crisis 2008 Indiana Governor Governor 2008: Republican: Gov. Mitch Dan- calling for police protection iels. Democrat: Senate Minority Leader Richard Young, Jim Schellinger, Jill Long Thompson. 1996 Results: By BRIAN A. HOWEY O’Bannon (D) 1,075,342, Goldsmith (R) 997,505, Dillon INDIANAPOLIS - By this time Monday, there will (L) 35,261. 2000 Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,230,345, likely be a full-blown property tax meltdown in Marion McIntosh (R) 906,492, Horn- County. ing (L) 38,686. 2004 Results: It is expected to be so bad that the Indianapolis Daniels (R) 1,302,912, Ker- Star reported that at least three township assessors have nan (D) 1,113,900, Gividen (L) called for police protection next week after tax bills go out 31,644. 2008 Forecast: The over the next several days. three Democratic candidates will Marion County Treasurer Mike Rodman told India- make a joint appearance at the napolis Star columnist Matt Tully, “I was dumbfounded,” HPR Forum on Oct. 23 in Indianapolis. It appears to be about his first look at the coming tax bills. He also used the first such event outside of Democratic organizations words such as “ugly” and “painful.” Tully wrote that his on the schedule. Full details will be announced in July. taxes will be going up 68 percent. Schellinger (pictured) has That’s before Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson will earned the unanimous endorse- have a press conference at 12:30 p.m. today to announce ment of the Executive Board an income tax increase. He hasn’t hinted at how big that of the American Federation of will be, but it will cover $80 million in public safety costs. State, County, and Municipal But it isn’t just Marion County. Employees Council 62. The Jefferson County Assessor Margaret Hoffman wants 14-member AFSCME board met homeowners to understand their statement before taking with the three potential Demo- their anger out on workers in the courthouse, according to cratic candidates on Saturday the Madison Courier. before making their decision. "I know the first reaction will be 'what the hell did “I am incredibly grateful for you do to me?'" Hoffman said. "But homeowners need to the trust and confidence of the be educated and know what (taxpayer's) assessed value hardworking men and women is." To lessen the financial blow, taxpayers are being asked of AFSCME,” Schellinger said. to research the value of their house. "They need to get a “Public employees across Indiana grip on what they can sell their house for. " deserve leadership that will listen to their concerns and Allen County taxpayers will pay an average work with them to make state government responsive to 12.4 percent more in taxes this year, but Aboite residents the needs of all Hoosiers.” Schellinger’s campaign is be- recently annexed into Fort Wayne can expect a larger ginning to list its $10k supplements. The biggest include bump with a 57 percent increase (Fort Wayne Journal Bren Simon, $200,000; UAW Region III, $50,000; Wood- Gazette). Auditor Lisa Blosser on Tuesday provided the row Myers, $25,000; George Buskirk, $25,000; Michael 2007 tax rates to The Journal Gazette. Property owners Gouloff $25,000; Brian Sullivan, $25,000; Daniel Mori- will receive less property tax relief from the state this year, arty, $15,000; Alan R. Tucker, $10,000, Richard Pfleger, which was the chief culprit behind the higher tax bills for $10,000; Ralph Wagel, $10,000. Young’s campaign has most residents, she said. received one $10k supplemental, at $20,000. Gov. Dan- The Evansville Courier & Press reported that War- iels begins a vacation to his West Viriginia vacation home rick County was expecting increases. at the end of this week. Last week, Daniels was critical of The various county associations are currently work- a $10 tax on motorcycle plates to pay for brain and spinal ing out how the $300 million rebate the Indiana General cord trauma research. He was blasted by State Rep. Car- Assembly passed last spring. Dan Novreske of the Senate olene Mays, who said he should “be embarrassed” when Majority Staff told HPR this morning that it looks like the he said he didn’t know it was in the budget bill. Mays state will pay counties proportionate amounts, and then the outlined the process the bill took. It was a subject of both counties will pay taxpayers proportionate amounts of their an HPR story last March and a Howey column. Sounds tax bills via a homestead tax. to us like the governor was trying to save face among Novreske said the payments will go to the taxpayer his buddies in ABATE, who were sharply critical of the who received the bill, and not into mortgage escrow ac- tax increase. Democratic Primary Status: TOSSUP. counts. v General Status: Leans Daniels. v Page 8 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

counties. Media Market: Indianapolis, South Bend, Fort 2007 Mayoral Wayne. 2008 Forecast: Rep. Burton is getting some terri- Republican: Matthew Kelty. Fort Wayne: ble press for paying family members with campaign funds. Democrat: Tom Henry. 2003 Results: Richard (D) 27,251, The Marion Chronicle-Tribune editorialized: There is Buskirk (R) 19,701. 2007 Forecast: Saying there was conflict of interest, and then there is the appearance of enough information to a conflict of interest. Paying your daughter for campaign warrant a review, Allen work on a regular basis in the amounts documented is cer- County Prosecutor Karen tainly an apparent conflict of interest and should be avoid- Richards on Thursday ap- ed. This is more disturbing coming on the heels of Burton’s pointed a special prosecu- celebrated trek to Palm Springs, Calif., for a celebrity golf tor to examine whether tournament instead of taking care of the people’s business Republican mayoral in Washington this past January. He missed 27 percent of nominee Matt Kelty prop- House roll call votes that month. This revelation continues erly reported $158,000 to paint a picture of arrogance in office. If the CREW group in loans to his campaign has a partisan agenda, it wasn’t apparent in this report, (Lanka, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). The announcement which also found that 41 Democrats used their positions of a special prosecutor came just 24 hours after Richards to financially received a complaint from a statewide non-partisan group. benefit fam- The complaint came from Common Cause of Indiana, ily members. which says it tries to provide a way for people to be heard Burton has in the political process and to hold elected officials account- opposi- able. The complaint was e-mailed to Richards’ office a day tion in the after the Allen County Election Board ruled 2-1 in a party- Republican line vote Tuesday that Kelty’s loans were properly recorded primary in in his campaign reports. Thursday afternoon, Richards said 2008. GOP Daniel Sigler was appointed a special prosecutor by the voters need Allen Superior Court. Sigler, a Democrat, was the Adams to study that County prosecutor for 20 years. He now is a senior prose- race seri- cutor in Whitley County, where he also works for his private ously and practice, Bloom Gates Sigler & Whiteleather. Richards said avoid giving she asked Sigler to become involved because he is a great Burton a free lawyer with integrity and has a background investigating pass back to the general election for the U.S. House.” campaign finance complaints. In July 1985, Sigler was The Indianapolis Star editorialized: “Dan Burton hasn’t special prosecutor to investigate then-Fort Wayne Mayor exactly been the best public servant for his constituents in Win Moses Jr. for how he supported a Republican sheriff the 5th Congressional District, or for Indiana. Now there’s candidate. Kelty said he was pleased to hear Richards had more. A watchdog group -- Citizens for Responsibility appointed a special prosecutor to look at the issue because and Ethics in Washington (CREW) -- shows the 12-term it will only further clear his name. “I’m confident the pros- Republican apparently thinks that the purpose of politics ecutor will look at this and arrive at the same conclusion, is to provide jobs and income for his relatives. Burton’s and I hope they do so quickly,” Kelty said. Nick Hess, the daughter, Danielle Sarkine, makes a living as one of her chairman of Indiana Common Cause, filed the complaint father’s campaign staffers. She earned $58,400 in sal- with the prosecutor because the election board ruling could ary (along with $3,200 in reimbursed expenses) from her allow candidates across Indiana to take campaign money father’s campaign committee last year. In fact, Sarkine without revealing its source. “We see this as a huge loop- has earned $144,000 from the campaign over the past six hole that threatens the basics of campaign finance report- years, ranking her among CREW’s list of the 10 most well- ing in the state of Indiana,” Hess said. compensated relatives on a congressional campaign. Status: LEANS HENRY Burton’s younger brother Woody already holds a powerful political seat in the Indiana House of Representatives. But he was paid $5,600 from his brother’s campaign commit- 2008 Congressional tee between 2002 and 2006 for vehicle repairs, insurance Congressional District 5: Republican: and other services. The challenge offered by former Marion U.S. Rep. Dan Burton, Dr. John McGoff. Democrat: Open. County coroner John McGoff in next year’s Republican pri- Geography: Fort Wayne, Goshen; Kosciusko, Whitley, mary offers voters a good alternative -- and a chance to LaGrange, Steuben, DeKalb and parts of Elkhart and Allen vote Burton out of office.” Status: LEANS BURTON v Page 9 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Indiana’s 14 pro bono districts. Contact Monica Fennell at [email protected].

Poorest show slight college increase While he’s given hundreds of speeches, Stan Jones, Indiana Commission for Higher Education, says last Sunday was the first time he’s given a presentation dur- ing an actual church service. Jones talked about the state of postsecondary education at All Souls Unitarian Church YDs headed to the Cove in Indianapolis. He says that after a decade of voluntary participation in Core 40 and Academic Honors diplomas, for baseball with Joe together they represent 68% of all Indiana high school diplomas. Gary has the lowest participation in Core 40, By BEVERLY PHILLIPS that, beginning this fall, will be required for all new high The Indiana Young Democrats are hosting a road school students unless parents go through a formal opt-out trip on July 14th to catch a South Bend Silverhawks vs. Kane process. Program statistics show the greatest influencing County Cougars game with special guests factor for completing college, Silverhawks owner and former Gov. Joe Ker- especially for minorities or nan, Speaker Pat Bauer and South Bend low income, is a strong high Mayor Stephen Luecke. Tickets are $50.00 school curriculum. and include two-way bus transportation from Surprisingly, while pro- Indianapolis to South Bend’s Coveleski Sta- grams such as 21st Century dium and picnic dinner with the VIP guests. Scholars have made college Email: more accessible for low and [email protected]. moderate income students, college enrollment by the Buncich eyes HD19 poorest kids in Indiana has Former Lake County Sheriff John increased by a mere 2% Buncich is one of several Crown Point/Mer- after nearly 20 years. Only rillville Democrats angling for HD19, soon 9% of students from Hoo- to be vacated by State Rep. Bob Kuzman. sier families in the lowest "I've received a lot of calls in the past few 25% income bracket attend days from people urging me to consider it," college, compared with 7% Buncich told the Times of Northwest Indiana. in 1990 when the “Scholars” On Friday, former Merrillville Town Council- program was created. Former Gov. Joe Kernan on inauguration day man Rick Bella said he, too, is thinking Jones says that aspirations 2005 at the Indiana State Fairgrounds. Since about a run. "With 12 years on the Town must be raised for lower leaving Indianapolis, the former governor and Council and three years on the Plan Com- income students who still do mayor has bought himself a baseball team and mission, I almost feel like I've taken the not see college as a realistic will be showing it off to Indiana Young Demo- training class for the legislature," Bella said. part of their futures, espe- crats. (HPR Photo by Brian A. Howey) Merrillville Town Councilman Lance Huish cially if their parents dropped confirmed Thursday he is interested as did out of high school or didn’t go to college. Crown Point City Councilman Andrew Kyres. Meanwhile, High schools must also do a better job of prepar- House Democrats will be awaiting word on whether State ing all students for the academic requirements, social Rep. Duane Cheney will resign after he announced plans adjustments and the sudden responsibility thrust upon to move to Southern Indiana. teens entering college. Only 1 out of 4 Indiana high school students will earn a Bachelor’s degree and there’s a persis- CJ Shepard Award Nominations tent trend for all advanced degreed students -- Bachelor’s, Nominations are being accepted until July 20th for Associate, Graduate or Professional -- to leave the state. the Randall T. Shepard Award for Excellence in Pro Bono v Politico from the Indiana Pro Bono Commission. Nominees Got a tip for the Boar’s Nest? Send it to: phillipsc- can be paid or volunteer and have demonstrated their [email protected] dedication to providing pro bono legal services in one of Page 10 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza, who will Obama coming to Indiana keynote the HPR Forum on Oct. 23, reported that congres- sional Democrats have outraised congressional Republicans INDIANAPOLIS - Here are some presidential elec- $48 million to $36 million. He tion notes from Indiana. called the difference “stun- U.S. Sen. Barack ning.” Obama is scheduled for a President Bush’s approval fundraiser in Indianapolis on rating is at 32 percent in the July 29. We know of no con- latest CNN Poll, though that’s spicuous Democrats who are 10 percent better than the backing Obama in Indiana. lowest ever record: President State Rep. Carolene Mays Truman at 22 percent. Presi- told HPR she is weighing an dent Nixon’s low point was 24 endorsement. Obama is not percent; Jimmy Carter was expected to make any public at 28 percent and President comments. G.H.W. Bush was at 29 per- Obama kicked off cent. his Iowa TV ad campaign in On support for the Iraq Iowa this week. War, it stands at 30 percent Indiana Attorney for, 67 percent against. General Steve Carter said he Among Republicans, 38 per- is supporting U.S. Rep. John cent oppose the war. v McCain.

2008 Presidential Polls

Republican Date Giuliani McCain Thompson Romney Comp. Spread Zogby 05/17 - 05/20 26% 13% 10% 10% Giuliani +13% Gallup 06/11 - 06/14 28% 18% 19% 7% Giuliani +9% Rasmussen 06/11 - 06/14 27% 10% 28% 10% Thomps +1% CNN 05/04 - 05/06 25% 23% 13% 10% Giuliani +2% Cook/RT 05/11 - 05/13 26% 24% 9% 9% Giuliani+2% FOX News 06/05 - 06/06 22% 13% 15% 10% Giuliani +7% Pew Research 03/21 - 03/25 33% 23% --% 8% Giuliani +10 LA Times/Bloom 06/07 - 06/10 27% 12% 21% 10% Giuliani +6% NBC/WSJ 06/08 - 06/11 29% 20% 14% 14% Giuliani +9%

Democrat Clinton Obama Edwards Gore Comp. Spread Zogby 05/17 - 05/20 39% 24% 11% -- Clinton +15% Gallup 06/11 - 06/14 33% 21% 11% 18% Clinton +12% Rasmussen 06/11 - 06/14 38% 27% 16% -- -- Clinton +11% Time 04/05 - 04/09 33% 26% 25% --% Clinton +7% CNN 05/04 - 05/06 38% 24% 12% 12% Clinton+14% Cook/RT 05/11 - 05/13 32% 24% 13% 10% Clinton +8% Pew Research 03/21 - 03/25 35% 26% 16% 12% Clinton +9% FOX News 06/05 - 06/06 36% 23% 12% 14% Clinton +13% LA Times/Bloom 06/07 - 06/10 33% 22% 8% 15% Clinton +11% NBC/WSJ 06/08 - 06/11 39% 25% 15% -- Clinton +14% Hoosier Support: Giuliani ($172,450 raised in Indiana): Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi, Stephen Gold- smith, Tim Durham, Beurt SerVaas, Steve Hilbert. McCain: Gov. Mitch Daniels; Attorney General Steve Carter. Romney ($83,750): Secretary of State Todd Rokita, James Bopp Jr., Dan Dumezich, Bob Grand, Chris Chocola. Thompson: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer, U.S. Rep. Dan Burton, David McIntosh, Mike McDaniel, Rex Early. Clinton ($71,000): Mel Simon, Bren Simon. Edwards: Robin Winston, Ann & Ed DeLaney, 9th CD Chaiir Mike Jones, State Reps. Russ Stilwell, Dennie Oxley, Terri Aus- tin, Terry Goodin, Sheila Klinker, Robert Kuzman, Linda Lawson and Scott Pelath; Greencastle Mayor Nancy Michael; Bill Moreau Jr., Shaw Friedman, Vanderburgh Co. Chairman Mark Owen, 8th CD Vice Chair Mary Lou Terrell, Greg Hahn, Bruce Kehoe. v Page 11 Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Mike Smith, Associated Press - Major almost equally disapproving of Congress. I think, generally, change was a theme of (Gov. Mitch Daniels’) last campaign, Americans are just fed up with politics and government. and he beat a formidable opponent in Democratic Gov. Joe There is so much information out there these days, with all Kernan. But big change could be a tougher sell in this next the blogging and podcasts and streaming videos, I think election. For one thing, Daniels now has a record people area starting to get a pretty good sense of changes, and some of them turned off a lot of what goes on in Congress. It used to be only of folks. And although Daniels said he took his political junkies who watched C-SPAN were instructions from the people during his first cam- aware of how futile and petty the actions of paign, he has made changes he didn’t run on. Congress are. v Much of the criticism has come from Democrats, and they are sure to make privatization a cam- Rich James, Post-Tribune - When paign issue by saying that Daniels is selling major word leaked last week that Indiana Attorney public services and assets to companies that General Steve Carter had beefed up his legal care more about profits than the taxpaying public. team for a civil lawsuit against former East Chicago Mayor “Indiana is a very traditionally minded state,” said James Robert Pastrick and 28 others, Carter said, “We want to McCann, a political science professor at Purdue University. have the strongest team working on behalf of the public.” “Hoosier voters tend to be risk-averse.” He said that likely Carter hired Patrick Collins, the former federal prosecutor, played a part in the controversies over daylight saving time, who won a conviction against former Illinois Gov. George the toll road lease and other privatization moves. “I think Ryan. Hoosier taxpayers will pay him a tidy $395 hourly. it’s up to Daniels to point out the changes he has made Although Collins may be good, Carter isn’t being terribly are good and there is a payoff,” McCann said. How change upfront about his motives. Despite saying he wants the plays in the next campaign could very well depend on how “strongest team working on behalf of the public,” the fate the Democratic nominee plays it. Bill Blomquist, a political of the people of East Chicago is window dressing. These science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University prosecutorial politics need to be put in perspective. After at Indianapolis, said if the Democrat focuses mostly on the city of East Chicago spent $25 million to pour side- criticizing the changes Daniels has made without offering walks before the 1999 mayoral primary, U.S. Attorney substantive alternatives, then Daniels can succeed by por- Joseph Van Bokkelen and the feds took notice. It was traying himself as a governor who at least did something. clearly a sidewalks-for-votes deal aimed at getting Pastrick “If Democrats can nominate someone who. in addition to renominated in the face of a stiff challenge from Stephen criticizing the controversial changes, (can) also be for some Stiglich. Given the long history of shams and scams in change, then the governor could be in trouble,” Blomquist East Chicago, I can’t blame Van Bokkelen for acting. Lord said. Regardless, Daniels clearly sees change on his side. knows what might be buried in those freshly paved side- He says in talking to Hoosiers during his monthslong RV walks. For the most part, the rest of the county and the tour during his first campaign, “I didn’t hear one person state has always looked the other way. But a $25 million say, ‘When you get there, please, sit still, do nothing, make pile of concrete is pretty tough to ignore. So Van Bokkelen no change.”’ He certainly has not done that. The election is acted and won. Did the six defendants commit crimes? more than 16 months away, but it will eventually be up to Sure, although the lengthy prison sentences of up to 11 voters to decide if they like the changes Daniels has made, years were too heavy. Were the sidewalks poured to “buy” and the new ones he will promise to pursue.v votes? Sure. Although highly unethical, that’s not neces- sarily illegal. So Carter filed a civil racketeering -- such a Gary Gerard, Warsaw Times-Union - The menacing word, isn’t it? -- lawsuit against Pastrick and Democrats have the majority in both houses of Congress others to recover the money. Yet, none of those who went these days. When they took over - as either party is wont to jail or are named in the civil suit is accused of pocket- to do when they take over - they told us how they were ing a penny. So, what Carter hopes to recover is beyond going to change things. They were going to get things me, unless he plans to seize the sidewalks and move them done. They were going to make Congress more account- to Indianapolis. Carter might win. Proving a civil suit is able. They were going to bring the troops home.Remember a whole lot easier to win than a criminal complaint. But the first 100 hours. Well, if you ask Americans how they’ve Carter’s quest isn’t about getting the money back. No, he done so far the answer is pretty abysmal. The latest Con- wants to be the guy to say he brought down East Chicago gressional job approval rating is at 24 percent according to and Bob Pastrick -- a humbled man who turns 80 this year. a Gallup Poll taken this month. That’s the lowest since the It’ll make for one heck of a headline and be a nice notch Demos took over in January. In February, it was not stellar on Carter’s belt, even if the taxpayers footed the bill to col- at 37 percent, but now the bottom seems to be dropping lect virtually nothing. v out. Interestingly, Democrats and Republicans polled are Page 12 Wednesday, June 27, 2007 Souder, House GOP Libertarians place tion later paid to Cappas, Pannos and family members was “enormous” and to oppose immigration bill council candidates was on the rise from 2002 to 2004, WASHINGTON - In an uncom- FORT WAYNE - This year’s Carter says in an unredacted por- mon move, House Republicans voted race for the Fort Wayne City Council tion of his investigation. Other state in a closed-door meeting Tuesday to has become even more contested with officials who have seen Carter’s full oppose the immigration overhaul that the Libertarian Party filling a nearly report also call the payouts exces- the Senate is complete ballot of candidates (Fort sive. “Excessive is a kind term,” said still debating Wayne Journal Gazette). The Al- Ernie Yelton, the gaming commission’s and the Bush len County Libertarians on Monday executive director. administra- nominated six more candidates to the tion supports ballot to go along with two existing (Smith, Fort council candidates. Jennifer Jeffrey, Porter County Chairman Wayne Jour- party chairwoman, said the Libertar- West moving to Texas nal Gazette). ian party is excited to be running so PORTAGE - Longtime Porter Rep. Mark many candidates this year. She said County Democratic Party Chairman Souder, many people are tired of the two-party Leon West will be resigning that post R-3rd, said the non-binding resolu- system and are looking for change in soon to move to Texas (Times). West tion was designed to tell the country government. “I have the utmost faith and his wife, Beverly, have purchased that “it’s not a Republican bill” despite we will get elected,” she said. a home in Fairview, near Dallas. He White House efforts to cast it that said he plans on resigning and mov- way. With support from Sen. Richard Pannos, Cappas got ing as soon as his home in Portage Lugar, R-Ind., and opposition from sells. West, 72, said he and his wife Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., the Senate rich from foundation are moving because they want to be voted Tuesday to revive the legisla- EAST CHICAGO - East Chi- closer to their two children and five tion and to start debating a series of cago political insiders Thomas Cappas grandchildren, who live in Texas. amendments. The Senate bill would and Michael Pannos and their families legalize millions of undocumented im- reaped “enormous” salaries while at migrants, create a temporary worker the helm of an embattled develop- Delaware County program, strengthen border security ment firm accused of squandering borrows to pay bills and institute a system for weeding out millions in local casino cash, Indiana MUNCIE - With spring proper- illegal immigrants from workplaces. Attorney General Steve Carter states ty tax collection delayed until August, Bush called the Senate bill “a good in a confidential report obtained by Delaware County Council has growing piece of legislation” and noted that The Times. The for-profit firm, East demands to borrow money (Muncie in a “difficult piece of legislation like Chicago Second Century Inc., was Star Press). On Tuesday, the council this, one side doesn’t get everything stripped of its more than $2 million accepted the low bid from Old Na- they want.” He said it is “a careful annual casino subsidy -- that was tional Bank to borrow $3.5 million to compromise” developed by Democrats supposed to be earmarked for com- cover bills for institutional and foster and Republicans working together. munity development projects -- a year care provided by Delaware County’s “The bill recognizes that we’ve got to ago after Carter delivered his financial Family and Children’s Services. The address the problem in a comprehen- investigation to the Indiana Gaming Old National rate for a bank-qualified, sive fashion.” Souder, however, said it Commission. The Times made a public tax-exempt loan was 3.9 percent. is a fatally flawed bill because it deals records request for the report in June with temporary workers, legalizing 2006 and received a partially redacted Howard County immigrants and other issues. He said copy this week. The 896-page docu- those areas should be resolved but not ment provided by the Gaming Com- lowers COIT before there are plans for making the mission blacks out most the financial INDIANAPOLIS - Even before borders with Mexico and Canada more details Carter compiled using confiden- the special County Option Income secure. “The whole ‘comprehensive’ is tial state records. However, a source Tax takes effect, the Howard County a scheme to do something while this familiar with the case said the amount Council has voted to reduce it by 20 president is still there, for Hispanic paid to Cappas, Pannos and family percent (Kokomo Tribune). Council votes. I don’t even know why he’s members of the two men from 2002 members voted unanimously Tuesday so invested in it at this point. Partly through 2004 is in the millions and to lower the special COIT from .25 because Iraq’s going so bad,” Souder represents the vast majority of Second percent to .20 percent, starting Oct. 1. said. Century’s payroll for the three years v that Carter examined. The compensa-