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Hydrologic Flood Forecasting Based Upon Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

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Hydrologic Flood Forecasting Based Upon Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts HYDROLOGIC FLOOD FORECASTING BASED UPON NUMERICAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL FORECASTS M.L. Kavvas, Z.Q.Chen and N.Ohara Hydrologic Research Laboratory Davis, U.S.A. Proposed Methodology Obtain coarse time-space resolution atmospheric forecasts from a regional/continental scale atmospheric model (eg.Eta or JMAM) 48 hours in advance; Downscale the coarse time-space resolution precipitation forecasts of the regional/continental scale atmospheric model (eg. NCEP or JMAM) to fine time (hourly) and space (~2km) resolution over the watershed of interest by means of MM5 model, 48 hours in advance of the runoff event; Utilize the fine time-space resolution precipitation forecasts of MM5 as input to Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model in order to produce 48-hours-ahead runoff forecasts . Forecasting Procedure Eta/JMAM Atmospheric WEHY Model Forecast Data Download DEM Build WEHY Model Data for Watershed IC & BC GIS Routines Calibrate and Verify MM5 to Obtain WEHY Model Large Watershed Domain Characteristics Simulation IC BC MM5 Precipitation Small Forecasts Format WEHY Domain Precipitation Data Runoff Forecasts MM5 Simulation for WEHY Model Simulations Atmospheric Forecasts by JMAM 20km resolution JMAM forecasts are obtained from the internet; JMAM provides atmospheric forecasts at 12 - hour intervals for 48 hours ahead; The 3D forecasts of precipitation, relative humidity, wind and atmospheric pressure by JMAM provide the boundary conditions for MM5 atmospheric model forecasts. MM5 Atmospheric Model Fifth generation regional atmospheric model of NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and Penn State University; Nonhydrostatic dynamic simulation of atmospheric processes (JMAM is hydrostatic); Downscaling and upscaling capabilities; Many modeling options for various atmospheric processes (eg. at least 5 options for convective modeling of precipitation). WEHY (Watershed Environmental Hydrology) Model WEHY Model is a physically-based, spatially-distributed watershed hydrology model that is based upon conservation equations that were upscaled from standard point-scale hydrologic conservation equations. Therefore, the emerging parameters in the WEHY model are areal averages and areal variance/covariances of the original point-scale parameter values (eg. grid areal average hydraulic conductivity, grid areal variance of the hydraulic conductivity). It is possible to implement and use WEHY model at any ungauged or sparsely-gauged watershed in the world since its parameters are estimated directly from the land features of the watershed , and not from fitting to historical rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, WEHY parameters are scalable with the scale of the modeling grid area sizes, incorporating subgrid area heterogeneity. WEHY model has areally-averaged, upscaled conservation equations for interception; snow accumulation/snowmelt, evapotranspiration, infiltration, unsaturated flow, subsurface stormflow, overland flow (with interacting rill/gully flow and sheet flow), and for channel network flow and regional groundwater flow. WEHY Model is a peer-reviewed and published watershed hydrology model (ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Nov/Dec 2004 issue). It can be used either for event-based runoff prediction, or for long-term continuous-time runoff prediction. Precipitation INPUT Parameter values related to Snowfall, Temperature, Wind Speed, Relative Topography, Soil, Land Use Land Humidity Cover characteristics Rainfall I. Interception and II. ENVIRONMENTAL HYDROLOGIC Evapotranspiration Model MODULE MODULE Unsaturated flow and Infiltration Solar Radiation + Snow Model Accumulation + Snowmelt (Vertical 1-Ds) Models Hillslope Processes (Hybrid 1-Ds) Subsurface Stormflow Overland flow (Sheet and Rill Hillslope Erosion/Sediment (Horizontal 1-D) Flow) (1-Ds) Transport (1-D) Hillslope Nutrient Transport (1-D) Regional Groundwater (2-D) In-stream Erosion/Sediment Transport (1-D) Stream and Regional Groundwater Processes (1-Ds and 2-D) Stream Network Flow (1-D) In-stream Nutrient Transport (1-D) OUTPUT Streamflow Hydrograph at Nutrient Load at any Sediment Load at any any desired location within desired location within a desired location within a a watershed watershed watershed Precipitation Sun Direct Evaporation of Intercepted Water Transpiration of Root Zone Water Interception by vegetation Bare Soil Through Fall Evaporation Direct runoff Snowmelt Snow cover Infiltration Infiltration Root Zone Unsaturated Zone Groundwater Recharge Groundwater Table unsaturated interrill area B local ridges unsaturated soil water flow qz Hortonian A L 1 L2 L2Mr A (Infiltration- excess) overland flow saturated interrill Sr subsurface region interrill sheet area flow stormflow Qyl S x Qr yl Q rill Sxl Sr xl flow Qx S r Syl Saturation H S overland xl θ flow region Impeding rill rill rill Q y y soil layer B Schematic description of hillslope-stream interaction A B A: Overland flow C B: Subsurface stormflow C: Groundwater flow D: Channel flow D Schematic description of Subdivisions and Contributing Areas in a Watershed MCU#1 Reach#1 Reach#3 MCU#2 Reach#2 Reach#5 Runoff Rainfall MCU#3 Reach#4 MCU#N Local or regional groundwater aquifer HHP11 SNLG12 Program for Program for Hillslope Stream Hydrologic Network and Processes Regional Groundwater Different local geomorphological conditions demand different model treatments Cross-section Cross-section (D-D) (A-A) Cross-section (L-L) rainfall rainfall ground 2 5 4 surface 1 1 6 bedrock 6 bedrock 3 3 bedrock 1.Subsurface stormflow 2.1. Return Subsurface flow stormflow, 2. Return flow, 3.Groundwater3. Regional groundwater flow flow, 4. Overland flow (sheet and rill flow) caused by rainfall on 4.Overlandvariable flow source (interacting area, rill and sheet flow) 5. Unsaturated vertical flow, 5.6. Vertical Seepage unsaturated from subsurface soil water stormflow. flow 6. Overland flow from seepage face O (1 m) Soil layer Bedrock Since all the parameters of WEHY Model are physically-based, they are estimated directly from the land use/land cover, soil, vegetation, topographic and geologic data and not from fitting the model to observed runoff hydrographs . Therefore, it is possible to calibrate and apply the WEHY Model at ungaged watersheds . Discharge at Yuunohara 5/21/97--5/28/97 120 0 100 0.02 80 observed 0.04 Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) Simulated rainfall intensity 60 0.06 40 /sec) 3 0.08 20 0 0.1 Discharge (m Contributions from Different Flow Processes to Discharge at Yuunohara 5/21/97--5/28/97 5/27/97 0:00 0:00 5/27/97 5/27/97 0:00 0:00 5/28/97 5/28/97 0:00 0:00 5/29/97 5/29/97 5/21/97 0:00 0:00 5/21/97 5/21/97 0:00 0:00 5/22/97 5/22/97 0:00 0:00 5/23/97 5/23/97 0:00 0:00 5/24/97 5/24/97 0:00 0:00 5/25/97 5/25/97 0:00 0:00 5/26/97 5/26/97 120 Time 0 100 0.02 observed Direct Precip + Infilt Excess 80 Return Overland Flow Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) Base Flow Only 0.04 rainfall intensity 60 0.06 40 /sec) 3 0.08 20 0 0.1 Discharge (m 5/21/97 0:00 5/21/97 0:00 5/22/97 0:00 5/23/97 0:00 5/24/97 0:00 5/25/97 0:00 5/26/97 0:00 5/27/97 0:00 5/28/97 0:00 5/29/97 Time Discharge at Yuunohara 6/17/97--6/23/97 400 0 0.02 350 0.04 300 0.06 observed 250 Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) Simulated 0.08 rainfall intensity 200 0.1 0.12 150 0.14 100 /sec) 3 0.16 50 0.18 0 0.2 Discharge (m Contributions from Different Flow Processes to Discharge at Yuunohara 6/17/97--6/23/97 6/22/97 0:00 0:00 6/22/97 6/22/97 0:00 0:00 6/23/97 6/23/97 0:00 0:00 6/24/97 6/24/97 6/16/97 0:00 0:00 6/16/97 6/16/97 0:00 0:00 6/17/97 6/17/97 0:00 0:00 6/18/97 6/18/97 0:00 0:00 6/19/97 6/19/97 0:00 0:00 6/20/97 6/20/97 0:00 0:00 6/21/97 6/21/97 400 Time 0 0.02 350 observed 0.04 300 Direct Precip + Infilt Excess Return Overland Flow 0.06 Base Flow Only 250 Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) rainfall intensity 0.08 200 0.1 0.12 150 0.14 100 /sec) 3 0.16 50 0.18 0 0.2 Discharge (m 6/16/97 0:00 6/16/97 0:00 6/17/97 0:00 6/18/97 0:00 6/19/97 0:00 6/20/97 0:00 6/21/97 0:00 6/22/97 0:00 6/23/97 0:00 6/24/97 Time Discharge at Yuunohara 9/12/98--9/21/98 1400 0 0.02 1200 0.04 0.06 0.08 1000 0.1 observed 0.12 Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) 800 Simulated 0.14 rainfall intensity 0.16 600 0.18 0.2 400 0.22 /sec) 3 0.24 200 0.26 0.28 0 0.3 Discharge (m Contributions from Different Flow Processes to Discharge at Yuunohara 9/12/98--9/21/98 9/19/98 0:00 0:00 9/19/98 9/19/98 0:00 0:00 9/20/98 9/20/98 0:00 0:00 9/21/98 9/21/98 0:00 0:00 9/22/98 9/22/98 9/12/98 0:00 0:00 9/12/98 9/12/98 0:00 0:00 9/13/98 9/13/98 0:00 0:00 9/14/98 9/14/98 0:00 0:00 9/15/98 9/15/98 0:00 0:00 9/16/98 9/16/98 0:00 0:00 9/17/98 9/17/98 0:00 0:00 9/18/98 9/18/98 Time 1400 0 1200 0.05 observed Direct Precip + Infilt Excess 1000 Return Overland Flow Base Flow Only 0.1 rainfall intensity Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) 800 0.15 600 0.2 400 /sec) 3 0.25 200 0 0.3 Discharge (m 9/12/98 0:00 9/12/98 0:00 9/13/98 0:00 9/14/98 0:00 9/15/98 0:00 9/16/98 0:00 9/17/98 0:00 9/18/98 0:00 9/19/98 0:00 9/20/98 0:00 9/21/98 0:00 9/22/98 Time Discharge at Yuunohara 10/14/98 -- 10/21/98 120 0 100 0.02 80 observed Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) Simulated 0.04 rainfall intensity 60 0.06 40 /sec) 3 0.08 20 0 0.1 Discharge (m Contributions from Different Flow Processes to Discharge at Yuunohara 10/14/98 -- 10/20/98 10/19/98 0:00 0:00 10/19/98 10/19/98 0:00 0:00 10/20/98 10/20/98 0:00 0:00 10/21/98 10/21/98 10/14/98 0:00 0:00 10/14/98 10/14/98 0:00 0:00 10/15/98 10/15/98 0:00 0:00 10/16/98 10/16/98 0:00 0:00 10/17/98 10/17/98 0:00 0:00 10/18/98 10/18/98 120 Time 0 100 observed 0.02 Direct Precip + Infilt Excess 80 Return Overland Flow Base Flow Only 0.04 Rainfall Intensity (m/hr) rainfall intensity 60 0.06 40 /sec) 3 0.08 20 0 0.1 Discharge (m 10/14/98 0:00 10/14/98 0:00 10/15/98 0:00 10/16/98 0:00 10/17/98 0:00 10/18/98 0:00 10/19/98 0:00 10/20/98 0:00 10/21/98 Time MM5 Precipitation Forecasts at Shiobara Dam Watershed Double-nested grid 34 x 34 outer grid mesh with 6 km resolution = 204km x 204km outer domain area; 31 x 31 inner grid mesh with 2 km resolution = 62km x 62km inner domain area; The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the weather forecasts of JMAM.
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