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Geospatial Analyses of Seismic Hazards and Risk Perception in Libya

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Geospatial Analyses of Seismic Hazards and Risk Perception in Libya University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK Theses and Dissertations 7-2020 Geospatial Analyses of Seismic Hazards and Risk Perception in Libya Somaia Suwihli University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd Part of the Emergency and Disaster Management Commons, Geomorphology Commons, Geophysics and Seismology Commons, Human Geography Commons, Nature and Society Relations Commons, and the Remote Sensing Commons Citation Suwihli, S. (2020). Geospatial Analyses of Seismic Hazards and Risk Perception in Libya. Theses and Dissertations Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/3717 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Geospatial Analyses of Seismic Hazards and Risk Perception in Libya A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geosciences by Somaia Suwihli University of Benghazi Bachelor of Arts in Geography, 2004 University of Benghazi Master of Art in Geography, 2009 July 2020 University of Arkansas This dissertation is approved for recommendation to the Graduate Council Thomas R. Paradise, Ph.D. Dissertation Director Fiona Davidson, Ph.D. Committee member Jason A. Tullis, Ph.D. Committee member ABSTRACT Libya is not considered a highly active seismic region. However, several earthquakes of magnitude >5.0 have occurred there. This dissertation analyzes the seismicity of Libya in order to better understand earthquake hazards, related geomorphic features, and the current evolution of Libyan perceptions of seismic risk. The first article developed a baseline of past and current seismic inventory in Libya, which represented an assessment of Libya seismic hazard by translating, analyzing, and compiling historical sources and archaeological data. This study shows that Libya has experienced earthquakes in varying degrees since ancient times. Through the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes from 1900-2019 strongly suggest Libya can be divided into three seismologically active regions. The second article uses remotely-sensing images to identify seismogenic surface features in different locations in the country. Different geomorphic features are identified and classified through multi-scalar techniques and represent the crucial procedure in identifying potentially hazards seismogenic features. The final article uses the administration of survey instruments to assess post- and pre-event perception of seismic hazard and risk in Al-Marj – a city razed in the 1963 earthquake. Demographic, educational, economic, hazard, and vulnerability questions in addition to Likert-scaled responses are used. This study finds that the correlations between demographics and Likert- style responses revealed the differences in perceptions between age, education, technology, and gender categories, in addition to the general lack of belief in the use of seismic predicting. When natural hazards in Libya like earthquake recurrence are better understood, then the potential consequences of injury, damages, and deaths may be assessed, and an overall plan to decrease risk can be created and implemented. Keywords: Earthquakes, Seismic History, Seismogenic Features, Risk Perception, Libya. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is the result of the unwavering support of many around me along with this experience, so I am endlessly thankful for them. First, I would like to thank my outstanding advisor and mentor supervisor, Thomas Paradise. He has taught me many things about seismic activities and related geomorphologic features, and hazard and risk perception. I am also grateful that he has been opened to discussing problems and provided the important sources for my research, and that he has been extremely patient with me. I appreciate the support and guidance that he gave this work from the beginning through the final revisions. I would also like to thank my committee members of my advisory, comprehensive examination, and dissertation committee: Aly, Davidson, Holland, and Tullis for their academic support. Thank you to the University of Benghazi _ Faculty of Arts and Science – Al-Marj where the survey was carried out by Basma Suliman and thank you to Omran Elshaab and Mohamed Alhamrosh to assisted in carrying out the survey to the survivors and residents of Al-Marj. I am grateful for financial support for this research from the Libyan Transitional Government - Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. Finally, thanks to my family in my home country; it is exciting to be the first in my family to earn a Ph.D.! And most importantly, I owe a sincere debt of gratitude to my husband, Khaled. He has supported and believed in me in many endeavors. This journey truly would not have been completed without his constant support and interest. Though this journey has taken longer than we both expected, I am excited to move on to see what the next stage in our life brings. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction . 1 1.1. Natural Hazards and Disasters . 1 1.2. Earthquake Hazards . 2 1.3. Scope of Work . 3 2. Study Site . 5 2.1. History . 5 2.2. Geological Evolution . 8 2.3. Geologic Formations of Libya . 10 2.3.1. Precambrian . 10 2.3.2. Paleozoic . 11 2.3.3. Mesozoic . 11 2.3.4. Cenozoic . 11 2.4. Landscape . 12 2.5. Climate . 18 2.6. Population . 20 2.7. Politics . 23 2.8. Economic . 24 2.9. Hazards and Disasters in Libya . 25 2.9.1 Desertification . 25 2.9.2 Floods . 27 2.9.3 Earthquakes . 31 3. Literature Review . 33 3.1. Natural Hazard Risk and Vulnerability . 35 3.1.1 Factors Influence Natural Disaster Risk . 37 3.1.2. Vulnerable Urban Area . 39 3.1.3. Disasters Trends in the Muslim Countries of the Mediterranean . 41 3.2. Remote Sensing of Natural Disasters . 46 3.2.1. Remote Sensing in Seismology Research . 48 3.3. Risk Perception . 52 3.3.1. Theories of Risk Perception . 53 3.3.2. Approaches to Risk Perception Study . 54 3.3.3. Factors Influence Risk Perception . 55 3.3.4. Islam and Risk Perception . 57 3.3.5. Risk Perception in the Muslim Countries of the Mediterranean Basin . 58 4. Methodology . 60 4.1. Historic Research Archive . 60 4.1.1. Written Sources and Archaeological Evidence in Libya . 63 4.1.2. Newspapers . 66 4.2. Remote Sensing and Seismology . 67 4.2.1. Deformations . 68 4.2.2. Using remote sensing to identify seismic geomorphologic features in Libya . 74 4.3. Survey Instruments and Interviews . 74 5. Creating a Libyan Earthquake Archive: from Classical Times to the Present . 78 5.1. Introduction . 78 5.2. Geologic Setting of Libya . 79 5.3. Methodology . 80 5.4. Results . 82 5.4.1. Antiquity – 1900 . 82 5.4.2. 1900 – Present earthquakes . 86 5.5. Discussion and Conclusion . 92 6. Framework for Identifying Remotely-sensed Seismogenic Geomorphology . 95 6.1. Introduction . 95 6.2. Tectonic and Seismic Geomorphologic Features . 95 6.2.1. Faults . 95 6.2.2. Fault Escarpments . 101 6.2.3. Offset stream channels . 103 6.2.4. Landslides . 105 6.3. Tectonic/Seismic Geomorphology of Libya . 107 6.3.1. Identifying Seismic Geomorphologic features in Libya . 110 7. Seismic Risk Perception in Al-Marj, Libya: a case study after the 1963 Earthquake . 119 7.1. Introduction.
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