VOLUME 14 ISSUE 3 | SUMMER 2020

inFOCUSQUARTERLY COVID-19: The More Things Change...

Mark Meirowitz on U.S. Leadership | Mark Dubowitz, Behnam Ben Taleblu, and Richard A. Goldberg on the Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Iran | Stephen Blank on Russia’s Middle East Ambitions | Simon Henderson on Saudi Arabia | Entifadh Qanbar on Iraq’s Protest Movement | Aykan Erdemir on Erdogan’s Power Grab | Lenny Ben-David on Israel’s Resilience | Yossi Kuperwasser on Regional Threats to Israel | Ofir Winter and Tzvi Lev on COVID-19 in Egypt | Dan Blumenthal and Linda Zhang on China’s Worldwide Propaganda | Hanin Ghaddar on Hezbollah’s Influence in Lebanon | Shoshana Bryen reviews Fight House

Featuring an Interview with Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion, IDF (Res.) LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER

e’re beginning to peek through region, while Mark Dubowitz, Behnam Ben inFOCUS the COVID-19 cloud. The world Taleblu, and Richard A. Goldberg make the VOLUME 14 | ISSUE3 is slowly becoming something case that Iran isn’t finished yet, although it’s recognizable – at least in some close. Simon Henderson, Aykan Erdemir, Publisher W Matthew Brooks places – and the beauty of summer beckons. and Ofir Winter and Tzvi Lev consider The world is likely irrevocably changed from the Persian Gulf, Turkey, and Egypt, Editor what it was at the dawn of 2020, but CO- respectively. The government of Iraq, writes Shoshana Bryen VID-19 isn’t the only thing in it. Different Entifadh Qanbar, is America’s enemy; its Associate Editors priorities for some, different resources for people are not. Hanin Ghadar limns the Michael Johnson others. Different allies, dif- Lebanese banking system Eric Rozenman ferent adversaries. Strength- and the systematic looting of Copy Editor ened and weakened allies, the people’s resources – even Shari Hillman

strengthened and weakened before the virus dissipates. Published by: adversaries. All of these will And Lenny Ben-David Jewish Policy Center need to be understood and reminds us that what is now 50 F Street NW, Suite 100 accounted for. has been before with a look Washington, DC 20001. The Summer 2020 issue of inFOCUS at early 20th century Palestine and trials of (202) 638-2411 looks at changes in our world and how the the Jewish people on the land more than a Follow us: United States should proceed. century ago. The elephant in the room is China. Shoshana Bryen lightens the atmo- JewishPolicyCenter Brig. Gen. (Res.) Assaf Orion spoke with sphere politically with her review of Tevy JPC Senior Director Shoshana Bryen about Troy’s new book, Fight House: Rivalries in @theJPC China in the evolution of security relations the White House from Truman to Trump. The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do not and technology security between the U.S. If you appreciate what you’ve read, I necessarily reflect those of the Jewish Policy and Israel. Russia, Iran, and the Multi-Na- encourage you to make a contribution to Center, its board, or its officers. tional Force and Observers in Sinai work the Jewish Policy Center. As always, you To begin or renew your subscription, please their way in there as well. can use our secure site: http://www.jewish- contact us: [email protected] Dan Blumenthal and Linda Zhang policycenter.org/donate. track China’s increasing repression at home Sincerely, © 2020 Jewish Policy Center and aggressiveness abroad. Mark Meirowitz calls for strengthened American leadership, www.JewishPolicyCenter.org and Stephen Blank shows us why with his Matthew Brooks, look at Russia in the Middle East. Yossi Publisher Kuperwasser takes the broad view of the

MARK MEIROWITZ, Ph.D., is Associate Professor of Humanities LENNY BEN-DAVID served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the Em- at SUNY Maritime College. (3) bassy of Israel in Washington. (28) MARK DUBOWITZ is the chief executive officer of the Foundation Brig. Gen. YOSSI KUPERWASSER, IDF (Res.) is director of the

Featuring for Defense of Democracies (FDD). BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU is a Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem senior fellow at FDD. RICHARD A. GOLDBERG is a senior advisor Center for Public Affairs. (30) at FDD. (6) OFIR WINTER, Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Institute for Na- STEPHEN BLANK, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy tional Security Studies (INSS). TZVI LEV is an intern at the INSS. Research Institute. (10) (32) SIMON HENDERSON is the Baker fellow at The Washington Insti- DAN BLUMENTHAL, J.D., is the Director of Asian Studies and a tute and director of the Institute’s Bernstein Program on Gulf and Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). LINDA Energy Policy. (13) ZHANG is a Research Assistant at AEI. (36) ENTIFADH QANBAR is President of the Futures Foundation. (16) HANIN GHADDAR is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow in The Wash- ington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics. (39) AYKAN ERDEMIR is the senior director of the Turkey Program at FDD. (19) SHOSHANA BRYEN is the editor of inFOCUS Quarterly and the Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center. (41) Brig. Gen. ASSAF ORION, IDF (Res.) is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). (22) The World Needs American Leadership After COVID-19 by MARK MEIROWITZ

nternational affairs are not currently a the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in- was quoted saying that Australia is like high priority. Instead, Americans are volving infrastructure development and a piece of chewing gum on the bottom focused on the COVID-19 pandemic, investments throughout the world. of one’s shoe that needs to be kicked off. Iits impact on the U.S. economy, and Further, in the South China Sea (SCS), China has used its veto in the UN on the domestic turmoil in the nation. China has sought to assert wide-ranging to prevent actions being taken that it op- However, it is imperative for America to legal rights over the resources of the SCS, poses. In international institutions, Chi- address the immediate and fundamental ridiculing international legal decisions nese involvement has concentrated on issue of whether the United States will debunking China’s arguments for the ex- ensuring Chinese influence and control. continue to lead the world following the pansion of its regional rights (such as the China has used its “sharp power” to pandemic to ensure world stability and so-called “nine-dash line”). For example, undermine democracies and democratic the rule of law, or whether a China-dom- a Chinese official called the Permanent institutions worldwide. “Sharp power” inated world order will prevail. Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling against has been defined by the National En- dowment for Democracy (NED) as the “aggressive and subversive policies em- ployed by authoritarian governments China does not countenance criticism or challenge to as a projection of state power in demo- cratic countries, policies that cannot be its rising power and influence. described as either hard power or soft power.” The NED report highlighted that “China has spent tens of billions of dollars to shape public opinion and perceptions around the world, employ- The pandemic has awakened Amer- China in the Philippines case related to ing a diverse toolkit that includes, but is icans and the world from wishful think- the Scarborough Shoal a “piece of trash.” not limited to, thousands of people-to- ing concerning China’s actions. China China does not countenance criti- people exchanges, wide-ranging cultural withheld vital information about the cism or challenge to its rising power and activities, educational programs (most origins of the COVID-19 virus in Chi- influence. When Australia called for an notably the ever-expanding network of na. Further, Beijing co-opted the World investigation into the causes of the pan- controversial Confucius Institutes), and Health Organization (WHO), which failed to properly address the pandemic because China’s actions might come under criticism or be exposed. China The pandemic has awakened Americans and the world acquiesced in a resolution at the World Health Assembly (WHA) to look into from wishful thinking concerning China’s actions. the causes of the pandemic, a useless gesture since President Xi Jinping’s gov- ernment will likely never cooperate with such an investigation. demic, China, Australia’s largest trad- the development of media enterprises In addition to its internal repres- ing partner, imposed crushing tariffs on with global reach.” sion, and its actions and claims regarding Australian barley imports and stopped What should be done to address Hong Kong and Taiwan, China has ex- accepting beef from various Australian these and other challenges and threats panded its power and influence through producers. Indeed, a Chinese official to American leadership?

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 3 ❚ International Institutions internationalism, and without ineffective behavior shows why countries should The United States needs to follow arrangements like the Joint Comprehen- avoid economic overreliance on China China’s lead and remain in these insti- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or the Iran and should guard their critical infra- tutions to influence and control them. Deal). The Trump Doctrine emphasized structure from CCP [Chinese Commu- Pulling out is not effective since, as we “America First” and also insisted that al- nist Party] influence.” A Heritage Foun- saw with the WHO, when the U.S. pulled lies must be supportive of American in- dation report recommended a three-fold out, China jumped in with a $2 billion terests and pay their fair share of regional approach: establish a transatlantic 5G commitment to fight the coronavirus. arrangements such as NATO. By working consortium; block untrusted companies; We must restructure international with America’s allies, the Trump Doc- and build a coalition to confront China’s institutions. The UN was formed after trine 2.0 can become a sort of “America “military-civilian interaction.” WW II based on a specific threat from the First Plus,” where American leadership • Countering China’s Belt and Road Axis powers and was oriented toward col- in the world is empowered by America’s Initiative (“BRI”) – Washington should lective security. The UN has, for the most allies, and which will be indispensable to support countries that resist the over- part, not satisfied this objective. Indeed, world peace and stability. reaching of the BRI. The BRI has been promoted by China in the guise of “soft power” intended to be beneficial especial- ly to poorer countries, yet when looked We can have American leadership without at more carefully, and as a result of the globalization, internationalism, and without economic catastrophe engendered by the pandemic, many of these projects have ineffective arrangements like the JCPOA… A sort of been halted. China has made billions of “America First Plus,” where American leadership…is dollars worth of loans and grants for in- frastructure throughout the world. Many empowered by America’s allies. state beneficiaries of China’s BRI are now unable to repay these loans, their econo- mies having been destroyed by the pan- demic. In many cases, the loan arrange- China has been among the main malefac- Some possible areas of cooperation ments are being cancelled or reviewed. tors, hiding behind the veto. We can no are as follows: The BRI conundrum is exempli- longer allow China to use its control of in- • Countering China’s 5G efforts – We fied by Tanzania’s president canceling ternational institutions such as the WHO need to form a coalition between Ameri- a $10 billion port project signed by his to empower or protect itself. Perhaps the ca and its allies to push back against Chi- predecessor that provided China would entire UN structure needs complete revi- na’s 5G efforts. China threatened to pun- gain full control of the port with a 99- sion. If the world body is a debating so- ish the British bank HSBC and to break year lease (Tanzania’s president stated ciety, remove the veto, let debate ensue, and don’t allow the organization to take actions (or prevent actions) to empower China. Former U.S. Senator and UN Am- bassador Daniel Patrick Moynihan even If the [UN] is a debating society, remove the veto, called the United Nations “a dangerous place” due to the damage of which the let debate ensue, and don’t allow the organization to UN was capable. take actions (or prevent actions) to empower China... ❚ Trump Doctrine 2.0 What we need now to assure con- tinued American leadership in the world and the preservation of the rule of law is a “Trump Doctrine 2.0” which asks our commitments to build a nuclear plant in that these were conditions that only a allies to join with the U.S. to counter the United Kingdom unless London al- “drunkard” would accept). As with the China’s rising influence, since America lowed Huawei to build its 5G network. other BRI projects, China clearly intends can’t do this alone. We can have Ameri- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to achieve control, not benefiting the can leadership without globalization, recently stated that China’s “aggressive people of Tanzania.

4 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 The WorldMARK MEIROWITZ: Needs American Leadership After COVID-19

• Countering China’s Influence and ❚ Containment 2.0 Accordingly, the United States must Expansion in the South China Sea The words of George F. Kennan in be careful to use “smart power” strate- (SCS) – The United States should create his famous 1947 “X” telegram relating gies (combining “hard power” and “soft a South China Sea alliance with coun- to the USSR surely have applicability to power”) to counter China, and not allow tries in danger of losing their SCS rights China. “It will be clearly seen that the the competition with China to descend to resources to China, and to prevent Soviet pressure against the free institu- into a purely “hard power” conflict. China’s militarization of the SCS. How tions of the western world is something China also must be cautioned that the ironic that Vietnam, which fought a war that can be contained by the adroit and world will not countenance aggression with the United States, now seeks Amer- vigilant application of counter-force at in Taiwan, repression in Hong Kong or, ican help and that of the international a series of constantly shifting geograph- for that matter, the continued utilization community in countering China’s legal ical and political points, corresponding of “sharp power” by China to undermine claims in the SCS. Their concerns are ex- to the shifts and maneuvers of Soviet world democracies. American leader- acerbated by the ramming and sinking policy, but which cannot be charmed ship, supported by America’s allies, is of a Vietnamese fishing boat by a Chi- or talked out of existence.” We need a indispensable in this effort. nese vessel near the Paracel Islands. “Containment 2.0” that counters and Since, as Kennan said, these issues China’s SCS claims were rejected out- challenges expanding Chinese influ- can’t be “charmed or talked out of exis- right by the Permanent Court of Arbitra- ence and that will help to ensure Amer- tence,” America and its allies must take tion (PCA) and found to be without any ican leadership in the world. America immediate steps to re-assert American basis in international law. Washington does not, however, need a “Cold War leadership in the world and ensure the must support states that stand up to Chi- 2.0” with China, merely a way to push continuation of an American-led anti- na’s claims of sovereignty over continental back and counter China’s influence, totalitarian world order and the preser- shelf resources. The United States should working with America’s allies. Former vation of the rule of law. also continue freedom of navigation op- Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd erations (FONOPS) which provide the observed that “it may not yet be Cold MARK MEIROWITZ, Ph.D., is clear message that international law must War 2.0, but it is starting to look like Associate Professor of Humani- prevail in the SCS. Cold War 1.5.” ties at SUNY Maritime College.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 5 Maximize Pressure on Iran: Fortify the Sanctions Wall by MARK DUBOWITZ, BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU and RICHARD GOLDBERG

he Islamic Republic of Iran is in its nuclear ambitions, foreign aggres- to fund its destructive activities. The crisis. U.S. sanctions have crip- sion, and grave human rights violations. Islamic Republic no longer had to make pled the country’s economy. Pro- From the beginning of his 2016 painful budgetary choices between guns Ttests over the regime’s failed poli- presidential campaign, Donald Trump for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cies continue. The Islamic Republic has insisted that the JCPOA was a bad deal. Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Leba- reportedly even reduced force levels in Rather than permanently blocking nese Hezbollah, and pro-Iran militias in Syria, thanks to punishing Israeli mili- Iran’s pathway to nuclear weapons, the Iraq, as opposed to butter for its citizens. tary strikes and U.S. economic pressure. deal opened a patient path; if the JCPOA Cash did little to transform the Islamic These developments come as the coro- endures until its key provisions expire Republic’s leaders into more responsible navirus continues to ravage Iran, infect- (or “sunset”), Tehran would emerge global citizens or improve their treat- ing roughly 140,000 people and causing around 2025 with an industrial-scale ment of the Iranian people. more than 7,500 deaths, according to nuclear program, a short path to a bomb, By contrast, the Trump administra- tion has drained hundreds of billions of dollars from the Iranian treasury. U.S. sanctions did not need support from ...the Trump administration has drained hundreds of allies to work, as JCPOA defenders had billions of dollars from the Iranian treasury. long maintained. Put to the choice be- tween the U.S. market and the U.S. dollar on the one hand and the Iranian market on the other, multinational com- panies cut their ties with the Islamic official statistics, and many times those ballistic missiles to deliver that bomb, a Republic. The key economic indicators numbers, according to reports. conventional force newly equipped with demonstrate clearly: from GDP to infla- Iran’s economic and military mis- foreign weapons, and its economy im- tion rates, oil exports, accessible foreign fortunes reflect the success of the Trump munized against future sanctions. exchange reserves, the value of the Ira- administration’s maximum pressure The administration also dispensed nian rial relative to the U.S. dollar, and campaign, which began in May 2018 with the fiction adopted by its predeces- more, U.S. unilateral sanctions have in- following the president’s decision to sor that the nuclear agreement would flicted a greater cost – and in less time withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, moderate the mullahs by flooding them – than previous multilateral penalties. formally known as the Joint Compre- with cash and integrating them into the Market forces, even more than political hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The global economy. That theory of “modera- consensus, can sometimes achieve na- Trump administration has adopted a tion through economic seduction” failed tional security objectives. policy of maximum pressure to address miserably with the Chinese Communist The administration also broke ta- the full range of threats from the Islamic Party and Russian President Vladimir boos long observed by Washington’s Republic. The administration’s objec- Putin. The Islamic Republic has been at foreign policy establishment, including tive is a better agreement that addresses war with the United States for decades, an aversion to designating the IRGC in the JCPOA’s fatal flaws. The way to se- murdering Americans and seeking to its entirety as a Foreign Terrorist Or- cure such an agreement is to escalate all dominate the Middle East through its ganization (FTO), blacklisting Iran’s forms of pressure on the clerical regime terrorist proxies. The JCPOA only super- supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khame- until it faces a stark choice between its charged such malign conduct by return- nei, and sanctioning Mohammad Javad own survival and the abandonment of ing tens of billions of dollars for Tehran Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister. These were

6 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 MARK DUBOWITZ, BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU Maximize PressureMARK DUBOWITZ, on Iran: Fortify the Sanctions Wall and RICHARD GOLDBERG:

President Donald Trump displays his signature on an Executive Order to place further sanctions on Iran Monday, June 24, 2019, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Photo: Joyce N. Boghosian/White House) political “firsts” that further boxed in the UN arms embargo – this October. IRGC will pose significant risks to all the regime. President Trump’s decision Indeed, on its campaign website, multinational companies. Few believe to kill IRGC-QF commander Qassem the Biden campaign assiduously avoids the risks of Tehran’s illicit conduct will Soleimani intensified the operational committing itself to a return to the diminish, even if a Biden administra- and psychological pressure while avoid- JCPOA. Instead, the campaign talks tion lifts sanctions. ing the “World War Three” that his crit- about “rejoining a diplomatic agreement More lawmakers can reinforce ics predicted. In addition, the adminis- to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, if Iran these political and market risks by sup- tration’s successful campaign to get the returns to compliance with the JCPOA.” porting Senate and House resolutions United Kingdom and Germany to black- That could be a return to the JCPOA or introduced in May 2019 marking the list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization a return to something like the interim one-year anniversary of the withdrawal demonstrated that both pressure and agreement, or Joint Plan of Action, from the JCPOA and co-sponsored by diplomacy could work against Tehran’s reached in 2013, which provided more 22 Republican members of Congress. most deadly Arab proxy. limited sanctions relief. Each resolution “rejects the reapplica- Despite these successes, the cur- Still, either way, the Trump admin- tion of sanctions relief provided for in rent policy has vulnerabilities. Europe istration should do more to strength- the JCPOA.” This would underscore how remains committed to defending the en its “sanctions wall of deterrence,” companies will be whipsawed again, as JCPOA as it hunkers down in the hope whose purpose is to deter market play- they were between 2015 and 2018, if they that former Vice President Joe Biden will ers from returning to business with return to Iran without bipartisan sup- succeed Trump as president and return Iran even if the United States rejoins port for a new agreement that addresses America to the deal. A Biden adminis- the JCPOA. The designation of the Cen- the JCPOA’s fatal flaws. tration might prefer to employ America’s tral Bank of Iran for funding terrorism, Washington needs to establish clear newfound leverage to negotiate a better the designation of the IRGC as an For- red lines to head off further Iranian es- agreement, rather than rushing back to eign Terrorist Organization (FTO), and calation as the maximum pressure cam- the JCPOA. And it might find that le- the redesign of many of the sanctions paign continues. Last summer, Washing- verage diminished if Iran reaches the to make them based on terrorism, mis- ton did not respond to Iranian regional JCPOA’s first sunset – the expiration of sile proliferation, or connections to the and nuclear escalation, culminating in a

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 7 cruise missile and drone strike on Saudi on Iran’s regional and non-oil trade, State Mike Pompeo is preparing a dip- Arabia that knocked offline almost 6 which is where Tehran is generating rev- lomatic campaign to maintain the inter- million barrels of daily petroleum pro- enue while under sanctions. national arms embargo on Iran. The end duction. While the killing of Soleimani Washington also needs to step up of the arms embargo is one of the many shocked Tehran after its militias killed its support for the Iranian people, whose key international restrictions on Iran an American in Iraq, Washington since disdain for the regime is growing with scheduled to expire over time. has absorbed repeated rocket and mor- more frequent and broad-based protests, Yet it makes little sense to lift an tar attacks from pro-Iran militias, even to which the regime has responded with arms embargo on a regime that has after two American and one British sol- even greater violence. There are numer- steadily increased its violent behavior ider were killed. The red line against the ous ways the United States can show its over the past year, ranging from cruise taking of American lives must be en- support: more targeted designations for missile strikes on Saudi oil infrastruc- forced. But even this high bar for the use human rights abuses and corruption; ture to mine attacks on tankers in the of force can make allies skeptical about platforms to help Iranians circumvent Persian Gulf and rocket attacks on American staying power in the region while incentivizing Iran-backed Shiite militias to continue their attacks. The administration has adopted the The most immediate sanctions target is to tighten right policy, but it must safeguard gains the noose on Iran’s regional and non-oil trade, and add to its wins. First, it should not offer Tehran any premature sanctions which is where Tehran is generating revenue while relief. Diminishing American lever- under sanctions. age led to the fatally flawed JCPOA in the first place and has not worked in the administration’s negotiations with North Korea, in which Trump’s sum- Internet restrictions; humanitarian re- American and British forces in Iraq. mit diplomacy undermined the pressure lief efforts through international non- Meanwhile, the regime continues to campaign. Washington should defend governmental organizations to bypass support terror and proxy groups in Leb- its sanctions wall against a new admin- the regime; public messaging that sup- anon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gaza istration by designating more Iranian ports a peaceful democratic Iran; and Strip, all of which perpetuate conflicts entities and economic sectors under respect for human rights as a key con- and add to regional instability and civil- multiple sanctions authorities. The Trea- dition of any comprehensive agreement. ian suffering. The Pentagon reports that sury Department should enhance audit Such a policy of “maximum support” Beijing and Moscow are planning to sell and due diligence requirements for any will reinforce maximum pressure. Iran fighter jets, main battle tanks, at- firm auditing the books of a company Finally, Washington faces a show- tack helicopters, and modern naval ca- that maintains ties with Tehran. This down on Iran at the UN Security Coun- pabilities. Tehran is also likely to step-up its proliferation of this advanced weap- onry to the likes of Lebanese Hezbol- lah, Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas and Washington needs to establish clear red lines to Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and the Houthis head off further Iranian escalation as the maximum in Yemen. Accordingly, the first phase of Pom- pressure campaign continues. peo’s plan is to propose a new UN Se- curity Council resolution to extend the arms embargo on Tehran indefinitely. Russia and China are expected to block will deter companies that may not do cil, where the administration can either the proposal, because the end of the em- business with the United States or in the strengthen its maximum pressure cam- bargo will unshackle their efforts to em- U.S. dollar but do need audited finan- paign and sanctions wall of deterrence ploy billions of dollars in arms sales as a cial statements from accounting firms, or have them undermined by Russian means of turning Iran into a client state. which will not be able to meet this en- and Chinese intransigence. In line with Phase two of Pompeo’s plan circum- hanced standard. The most immediate a request by 387 members of the U.S. vents Russian and Chinese obstruction. sanctions target is to tighten the noose House of Representatives, Secretary of He intends to use the self-destruct – or

8 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 MARK DUBOWITZ, BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU Maximize PressureMARK DUBOWITZ, on Iran: Fortify the Sanctions Wall and RICHARD GOLDBERG: “snapback” – mechanism of the nuclear imprimatur on the nuclear deal, defines can empower purported moderates and deal to block the sunset of the arms em- the term “participant State” to include divert Tehran from its decades-long bargo, removing the need for an exten- the United States. According to a State quest for nuclear weapons capabilities. sion. This mechanism gave all original Department legal opinion, Resolution Time is running out for the Trump parties to the nuclear deal – including 2231 does not contemplate a change in administration as the November elec- the United States – the right to snap all that definition even if America ceases tion looms. A second Trump term will UN sanctions and embargoes back into participating in the agreement. This was likely give it more time to realize its place if the Iranian regime ever breached not an accident, but a rare case of fore- maximum pressure campaign against a its nuclear commitments. Such breaches sight on the part of the nuclear deal’s regime in Iran suffering political, mili- are now indisputable. The International negotiators. Indeed, the Obama admin- tary, economic, and health crises and a Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported istration heavily marketed this uncondi- challenge to its domestic legitimacy. But in March that Iran has tripled its pro- tional snapback prerogative as a key fea- to prevent a Biden administration from duction of enriched uranium since No- ture of the plan in 2015. Unsurprisingly, reversing its extraordinary gains against vember and is denying nuclear inspec- Russia and China object to this inter- the Islamic Republic, the Trump ad- ministration must double down on the pressure and fortify its sanctions wall of market and political deterrence. The Pentagon reports that Beijing and Moscow are MARK DUBOWITZ is the chief execu- planning to sell Iran fighter jets, main battle tanks, tive officer of the Foundation for Defense attack helicopters, and modern naval capabilities. of Democracies (FDD). BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU is a senior fellow at FDD where he conducts Persian-language research on Iranian security and politi- cal issues. RICHARD A. GOLDBERG tors access to suspicious sites. pretation. They are hoping Europe will is an FDD senior advisor. He most re- Even though the Trump adminis- persuade Washington to relent. London, cently served as director for countering tration withdrew from the nuclear deal, Paris, and Berlin readily acknowledge Iranian weapons of mass destruction it retains the right to initiate a snap- the flaws of the nuclear deal, especially for the White House National Security back. Specifically, UN Security Coun- its sunsets, but they remain wedded to Council. This essay integrates recently cil Resolution 2231, which put the UN the belief that engagement on any terms published work by the three authors.

The Trustees and Fellows of the Board of Trustees: The Jewish Jewish Policy Center mourn the Diana Epstein, Cheryl Halpern, passing of our Chairman Richard Joel Hoppenstein, Eliot Lauer, J. Policy Center Fox. May his memory be a blessing Philip Rosen, Walter Stern for his family and all who knew him. Board Board of Fellows: Chairman: Richard Fox (z"l) Richard Baehr, William J. Bennett, Mona Charen, Midge Decter, Honorary Chairman: David Frum, Rabbi Daniel Lapin, Sheldon B. Kamins Michael A. Ledeen, Michael Medved, David Novak, Daniel Vice Chairmen: Pipes, John Podhoretz, Norman Marshall J. Breger Podhoretz, Dennis Prager, Ilya Michael David Epstein Shapiro, Tevi Troy, Ruth Wisse

General Counsel: Jeffrey P. Altman

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 9 Russia in the Middle East: Are We at an Inflection Point? by STEPHEN BLANK

ecent developments in Russia’s coincided with the onset of the corona- supply and air support, provided relations with Middle Eastern virus pandemic, may presage a reversal training of Iranian mercenaries and states suggest an impending in- of fortune for Russia in the Middle East. launched an offensive operation. Rflection point in those ties. Since These events have revealed the limits The purpose of the operation is to 2015 when it intervened in Syria, Mos- of its military and energy power to the penetrate Idlib through large gaps cow has prospered in the Middle East. world at large and may lead to a recon- between Turkish strongholds and As virtually every analysis points out, figuration of Middle Eastern relations create their [own] strongholds. And Russia is now an indispensable and with Russia and of Russia’s policies in with the support of Russian-Assad trusted interlocutor for almost every the Levant. aviation, defeat the pro-Turkish forc- Middle Eastern state and has hitherto es without engaging in battle with adroitly managed to avoid taking sides ❚ Syria and Turkey the Turkish army. Thus, the Turks in any of the terrible consequences that In February-March 2020, Syrian would be forced to enter into nego- pervade this region. As everyone’s “dia- forces aided by Russian aircraft launched tiations on a settlement in Idlib with logue partner,” Russia has successfully an offensive against Turkey’s troops in [Russian President Vladimir] Putin made major political and strategic gains, Syria, a crisis stemming from the funda- and Assad, and Assad would be able obtained lucrative arms and energy con- mental incompatibility of Russo-Turkish to regain control there. The first key tracts, consummated deals with OPEC interests there. Russia’s interests are that target of the offensive was the city (Organization of Petroleum Exporting President Bashar al-Assad regain con- of Serakib and the area around it, Countries), become a reliable interlocu- trol over all or as much as possible of through which one of the strategic tor for Iran and Israel, coordinated with Syria and ultimately eliminate the Idlib highways goes. Turkey in Syria, created enduring power salient in the northwest that, on the ba- Nevertheless, Russia and Assad ap- parently miscalculated and Turkish Presi- ...despite the fact that Presidents Erdogan and Putin dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to ac- remain in close contact on Syria and other issues; cept Assad’s offensive. Erdogan launched a counter-offensive that inflicted even there is no doubt that further crises will occur... greater losses on Syrian forces and their Russian-made equipment, forcing Russia to intervene diplomatically, and raising projection capabilities, gained military sis of previous agreements with Turkey, the prospect of a major Russo-Turkish bases in the Middle East and the Horn contains the last remnant of Assad’s op- clash. Previously, Russia had accepted ac- of Africa, and challenged the U.S. role position who Moscow regularly calls ter- cords on Idlib to give Assad time to gain as the “security manager” of the region. rorists. Thus, when Assad mounted this control of other “liberated” areas. But Moreover, it has made lucrative econom- offensive into this zone, he was clearly now Russia’s resolve to destroy the “ter- ic deals with many Gulf states to circum- supported by Moscow and the Russian rorists” and secure Assad’s rule clashed vent Western sanctions, and the UAE Air Force that inflicted serious casual- directly with Turkey’s plans to create a (United Arab Emirates) has become an ties on Turkish forces. According to a long-term buffer zone in Syria wherein it enabler and “advertising agent” for Rus- Ukrainian source: can resettle the millions of refugees who sian power projection in Africa. crossed into Turkey and have now be- However, new developments in Russia carried out a reform of the come a burden for it, and also prevent the Syria, and Moscow’s reckless and ill-ad- Assad forces, took full responsibil- Syrian Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection vised “oil war” against Saudi Arabia that ity for reconnaissance, command, Units), which it charges are terrorists,

10 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 Russia in the Middle East: Are WeSTEPHEN BLANK: at an Inflection Point? from linking up with Turkey’s own Kurdish opposition, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). Therefore, and despite the fact that Presidents Erdogan and Putin remain in close contact on Syria and other issues, there is no doubt that further crises will occur and that the agreements on March 5 to suspend the fighting are purely tac- tical. Moreover, both the Turkish and Russo-Syrian-Iranian sides have recruit- ed terrorists, tribesmen, militias, etc. to their side, all the while charging that the other side is failing to suppress terror- ism. The use of these proxies in Syria, as in Libya, can only increase the possibil- ity of prospective resumption of fighting among the proxies that can then drag their sponsors into conflict, criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo- gan for the Russian-Turkish Cooperation Council in 2017. (Photo: kremlin.ru) him openly as happened in southern Syria. Consequently, we will see more neither Assad, nor Iran, nor Russia can continue to conduct operations in Syria. crises and this struggle between the two presently pacify Syria. That fact alone Moscow is even establishing a new he- incompatible visions of Syria’s future is helps justify Turkey in its belief that it licopter airbase in northern Syria in by no means over. can and must set up this northern buf- Raqqa province. Helicopters are much fer to prevent more refugees and Syria’s more useful than strike aircraft for the ❚ Assad’s Hold on Power Kurds from linking up to Turkey’s own kinds of low-level but deadly ambushes, Moreover, Assad’s insistence on re- Kurdish opposition. skirmishes, and battles that can and will covering his authority over all of Syria In addition, since the pacification transpire in northern Syria. And this without making any concessions to any of Syria and the beginning of its recon- new base also represents a veiled warn- faction in the country has finally led stitution as a state are nowhere in sight, ing to Turkey. While there have been Russia to criticize him openly, if not in divisions among Russian policymakers at least seven of the newly established the name of the government. Indeed, we have evidently surfaced. Allegedly, the Russo-Turkish patrols in Syria agreed to now hear reports (clearly authorized by Ministry of Defense and military-intel- under the March 5 plan, the plan itself the Russian government for publication, ligence apparatus are fighting with the failed to obtain a legal basis when the even if they are not verified) that Rus- Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its re- United States vetoed it in the UN Secu- sia, Iran, and Turkey have all decided to search centers. The aforementioned pub- rity Council. It remains, then, merely a unseat Assad. Since Assad cannot even lic critique of Assad clearly represents bilateral agreement. There are numerous pacify other areas of Syria, the civil war the fact that those elements of the Rus- signs of domestic and rebel opposition to is not over despite a clear Russo-Syrian- sian government that are disenchanted the patrols that will likely increase and Iranian victory over many of the rebels. with him have obtained political cover interfere with their missions in the fu- In southern Syria, terrorist assassina- for expressing their views about his in- ture. Therefore, it increasingly looks like tions, killing many Syrian soldiers, con- flexibility and corruption in public to Syria could become the quagmire Presi- tinue with impunity. At the same time, warn him that Moscow’s support may dent Barack Obama (albeit far too early) Russia, Iran, and Turkey have each built not be immutable. Moscow’s difficulties predicted it might become for Russia. up proxy forces in Syria – aside from also come from Iran, which has com- their own regular forces – and the rival- municated its unhappiness about being ❚ The Saudi Connection ry among Russian and Iranian proxies excluded from the March 5 agreements In early 2020, Moscow also fuels the violence. with Turkey and has long been unhappy launched an oil war with Saudi Ara- Each is striving for control over ter- that Moscow will not shield it from Is- bia. As the coronavirus forced declin- ritory, rackets, and markets. Assad can- raeli raids on its positions in Syria. ing energy demand in China, demand not stop the violence and the rival proxy Thus, it is clear that Russian, Ira- was already declining due to a warm forces will not stop it. Consequently, nian, and Turkish military forces will winter, and American shale producers

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 11 were capitalizing on energy prices of Bbl. any time soon. As a result, Moscow he has repeatedly threatened to do, that about $60-70 per barrel (Bbl.). Moscow has suffered what can only be termed a outcome might be reversed. Encourag- spurned Riyadh’s offer of jointly cutting catastrophic defeat. Its cash reserves are ing Iran in Syria carries its own risks, production to keep prices high. Instead, draining away. The ruble has fallen pre- as Israel will not desist from destroying Moscow prepared to increase produc- cipitously, and its economy is estimated Iranian military infrastructure there tion and strike at Saudi and other OPEC to lose 5-6 percent of GDP this year. and Moscow will not tangle with Israel members’ market share even though its Worse yet, as of May, Saudi Arabia con- to bail out Tehran. real target was U.S. shale producers. At tinued to undercut Russia in European, At the same time, Riyadh now has higher prices in 2019, American produc- Asian, and even the U.S. market. reason to be even more suspicious of ers were cutting into Russian markets. Moscow’s ambitions and judgement re- Given the high cost of shale pro- ❚ Conclusion garding energy and the Middle East, two duction, Russia, and in particular Igor These developments may well pres- closely interrelated issues. Russia’s con- Sechin, boss of Russia’s energy giant age an inflection point in Russian pol- tinuing partnership with Iran against Rosneft, attacked support for high prices icy. To be sure Moscow is not leaving the United States has not previously dis- as subsidizing these American produc- the Middle East. It has made serious suaded a Saudi-Russian dialogue and ers. Sechin was also fuming because U.S. investments in Syria and has gained le- they cooperated on energy from 2016-19. sanctions on Rosneft in Venezuela forced verage throughout the Middle East and But the last crisis exposed both the de- the company to sell its shares to the Rus- Maghreb (Arab North Africa) and will fects of Russian policymaking and Saudi sian state (netting Rosneft $9.6 billion). fight to both maintain and extend its in- Arabia’s ability to dominate energy mar- He wanted revenge. He also convinced fluence whenever possible. Nonetheless, kets with U.S. support, even if Washing- ton had to twist its arm. These events will redound not only The coronavirus is rampaging through Russia… through Syria and in bilateral relations with Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Tur- the state’s response, frankly, has been pathetic with key, but will have effects that go all the Putin essentially hiding in his dacha. way to sub-Saharan Africa. Russian suc- cesses there were in no small measure due to its previous successes in the Mid- dle East and those have now been seri- President Putin that flooding markets its resources may not be up to the task. ously tarnished. with cheap oil would not only destroy The coronavirus is rampaging But the strategic stakes are too high American producers but also Saudi through Russia, eating up government for Moscow to abandon the field, and the Arabia. He and his supporters believed savings and the economy. The state’s re- structural pathologies of both regions that Saudi Arabia needed a price on oil sponse, frankly, has been pathetic with that invite foreign intervention may ac- twice that of Russia to make a profit, and Putin essentially hiding in his dacha. tually get worse due to the coronavirus. therefore could not withstand Russian The defense budget, not to mention for- Moreover, nothing is forever in the Mid- flooding of the market. eign adventurism, will come under severe dle East and all manner of astounding They made a catastrophic mis- pressure whatever the policy response. renversement des alliances (reversal of take. Saudi Arabia preempted Russia by Second, if Moscow really is think- alliances) have occurred and may easily flooding the market itself. As Riyadh is ing of ousting Assad, it eliminates the reoccur. Nevertheless, Moscow’s capa- an old hand at the market share game reason it intervened in the first place. bilities and judgment have taken a seri- this should have been predictable and If the Afghan, Iraqi, and Vietnamese ous and lasting hit so it probably will not, it soon became clear that Saudi Arabia, examples are relevant, his ouster will despite its intentions, be able to cut the not Russia, could better withstand the not stabilize what has become an in- same figure in the Middle East as it has enormous plunge in prices precipitated ternational proxy war on top of a civil since 2015. Although we are living in in- by the coronavirus pandemic. Moscow war; a truly Hobbesian state. Moscow teresting times, that does not mean that ultimately had no choice but to accept a also cannot oust Turkey from Syria un- peace will break out in the Middle East. solution engineered by President Don- less it wants a direct clash with Ankara. But we may be seeing the beginning of a ald Trump (whose interest was in res- One-on-one in overall military strength new stage in that region’s endless dramas. cuing American producers). Demand Ankara is no match for Moscow. But in has stayed low since March 2020 and Syria, particularly if Erdogan closes the STEPHEN BLANK, Ph.D., is a Senior Fel- prices are not going to rebound to $60/ Straits (Dardanelles and Bosporus) as low at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

12 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress by SIMON HENDERSON

eography can be deceptive. On forbid, taxing their own citizens (though slope. And it is no consolation that the a map, Saudi Arabia rivals Iran that may be starting). most likely scenario for higher prices and Iraq in size and dwarfs its is political tension, particularly in the GGulf Arab neighbors. Figures ❚ Breaking the Old Model Gulf area itself! for oil reserves can also be misleading. Even before the coronavirus pan- Nevertheless, even if, for the pur- According to the 2019 edition of the demic, the political and economic fabric poses of this analysis, the oil price and BP Statistical Review of World Energy of the Gulf was under stress, a conse- associated factors are put to one side, (compiled by British Petroleum Corp.), quence of future forecasts of oil prices they cannot be discarded completely. the three countries are almost in a dif- trending downward. But a countervail- As part of MbS’s project, Saudi Arabia ferent league from the rest of the Gulf ing force has emerged in the last few is due to host the G-20 economic sum- littoral countries, with Saudi Arabia years. It is the vision for his country mit later this year. Its membership is a way out front of the other two. of Saudi Arabia’s new de facto leader, consequence of its oil wealth, not the fact The reality is that it has often been Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, that it claims leadership of the Arab and more appropriate to consider the king- often known simply as MbS. He wants to Islamic worlds. dom as just another self-effacing Gulf break the old model for Gulf statehood The summit may turn out to be (yet monarchy with a relatively small citizen and make Saudi Arabia into a techno- another) virtual event but MbS will try population, propped up economically by logical powerhouse. And he also wants to put on a good show. Coping with the a large expatriate workforce, with oil and/ Saudi Arabia to be perceived as the most coronavirus will be a reflection of the or natural gas being the magic ingredient important country in the Middle East, quality of modern healthcare in the that keeps the whole edifice afloat. not only by the regional states but also kingdom. The flight of expatriate work- Unlike Iran and Iraq, the kingdom, the international community. This is a ers will be an opportunity for Saudi along with the other Gulf Arab states – huge challenge but is arguably the most citizens to fill the gaps. Weak incoming Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab important template for a discussion on revenue flows will be shrugged off as Emirates and Oman (to list them from the region’s post-pandemic future. less important now that his Vision 2030 project is moving in the right direction. The fact that the Vision may now be bet- ter dated as 2040 or even 2045 will con- Even before the coronavirus pandemic, the political veniently go unmentioned. No one will and economic fabric of the Gulf was under stress, protest. The fate of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi is remembered even if a consequence of future forecasts of oil prices it is not discussed. trending downward. The other Gulf states may struggle more. MbS has changed the social con- tract in his kingdom but most of the other sheikhdoms and emirates – Kuwait, the west to east) – is a unique political and Although the ability to export oil UAE, Qatar and Oman – are less hierar- economic system. The member states of and/or natural gas at a good price is the chical. The action though probably will be the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) largest and key variable for predicting in the ruler’s majlis (salon) rather than on are hereditary and tribal rather than re- the future of the Gulf states, forecasting the streets. Only Bahrain, majority Shia publics. And they are the quintessential that price, at least in the short-term, is but Sunni-ruled, could be really chal- rentier states, meaning that they depend a fool’s game. It is sufficient to say that lenged. Riyadh, along with Kuwait, Qatar on oil income, rather than developing the longer-term demand for hydro- and the UAE, have the financial reserves their own non-oil economies or, heaven carbons appears to be on a downward to see them through. Bahrain and Oman

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 13 Iran’s nuclear ambitions are a sepa- rate issue. Sanctions may well be delay- ing what is generally recognized as a nuclear weapons project, hidden behind a civil nuclear program. But even here, there is justifiable anxiety. Using much the same technology, both to obtain highly enriched uranium and a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, neighboring Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state in 1998, 22 years ago. And Pakistan’s nuclear device had been ready for testing for at least the previous 10 or so years. Washington’s diplomatic tensions with its European allies – Britain, Ger- many, and France – over how to deal with Iran remains a weakness only too obvious to Tehran, which already counts Russia and China as being effec- tively supportive. The challenge facing Washington is how to deal with Iran in Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman greets Argentina’s President a manner which is perceived – by Iran, Mauricio Macri at the 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires. (Photo: Hernan Nersesian) by regional allies, as well as by the wider will be looking for handouts, as will the by the virus or by increased U.S. sanctions world community – as being effective sheikhdoms of the seven-member UAE on its nuclear program, oil exports, and and therefore a deterrent, rather than other than oil-rich Abu Dhabi and the financial transactions. moves by a fading superpower. commercial hub of Dubai. Worse still, Iran’s capacity for asym- Arguably the most interesting and metric warfare is not only undiminished ❚ How Iran Sees Itself immediate factors at play, unimpeded but may be accelerating. Last September’s It is too simplistic to merely label by the coronavirus particularly for Saudi drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s main oil Iran as a troublemaker. Rather it is im- Arabia, are how to cope with the unfold- processing facility at Abqaiq and anoth- portant to try to understand Iran’s be- ing threat of Iran, and relations with er installation shocked military types havior, which is part historical and part Israel, with the associated attitudes to- across the world. The technology was a factor of the Islamic regime that took ward the Palestinian cause. These are is- comparatively low-tech and cheap, un- power at the 1979 revolution that over- sues which will not be left for a post-pan- dermining the notion that countries like threw the Shah. A key aspect is that Iran demic era. Their immediacy is further is the United States have an in-built mili- sees itself as the natural main power in emphasized by the November elections in the United States and the possibil- ity that the Republican administration of Donald Trump will be replaced by a Iran sees itself as the natural main power in the Democratic one led by Joe Biden. region, of which the name of the Gulf, the Persian ❚ The Iran Factor Gulf, is a key piece of evidence. The main political uncertainty within the Gulf is the behavior of Iran, where the coronavirus has also hit hard, although meaningful analysis of comparatively how tary advantage because of their superior the region, of which the name of the hard is awkward because of the absence technology and financial resources. The Gulf, the Persian Gulf, is a key piece of of good quality numbers and other data. United States won the Cold War by out- evidence. (The Gulf Arab states call the Worryingly, Iran’s capacity for destabiliz- spending the Soviet Union. This seems waterway “the Arabian Gulf,” but the ing activities appears undiminished either unlikely to work with Iran. United States’ official name for it is the

14 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 SIMON HENDERSON: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress Persian Gulf, recognizing that Iran’s strain because of the economic condi- of collaborating with another country coastline is the dominant one.) tions, administrative incompetence, and which shares that perception. Instead, Additionally, the Islamic republic is the Islamic leadership’s determination Israel is increasingly seen as a natural Shia Muslim, the minority sect in Islam, not to allow more than a limited range of trading partner with an overlapping and wants to rebalance the subordinate political sentiment. But this is balanced vision of cooperation on technologi- relationship of Shias with majority Sun- by what appears to be a determination cal options for the future. When MbS nis. In particular, Shia Iran thinks it has to deepen the roots of the Islamic regime was visiting the United States in 2018, a role in supporting Shia communities and a further tilt towards the hardliners at least one person at a closed-door across the Middle East that have been of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gathering of Jewish leadership fell off historically disadvantaged. This prin- (IRGC) in terms of political attitudes. his chair when the Saudi crown prince shared this dream. MbS’s other winning card in terms of perceptions, along with that of his Israel is increasingly seen as a natural trading UAE counterpart, Crown Prince Mo- hammed bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi, known partner with an overlapping vision of cooperation on as MbZ, has been to advocate moderate technological options for the future. Islam and move against the hardline Islam which seemed to define the king- dom for so long. Live entertainment and women driving have been signature de- ciple goes a long way to explain Iranian Despite the internal and external velopments in Saudi Arabia. The head of interests in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, as strains and stresses, Iran does not appear the Mecca-based Muslim World League, well as Bahrain and the oil-rich Eastern to be on the verge of political change, ei- Mohammed al-Isa, has also worked tire- Province of Saudi Arabia and will prob- ther deep rooted or in terms of policy. lessly on interfaith issues, including vis- ably be strengthened by the pandemic. The view appears correct that Supreme iting the Auschwitz death camp in Janu- The flip side of this is an in-built re- Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is sitting ary, along with American Jewish leaders. ligious and historical rivalry with Saudi out what he judges to be the final months Opinions vary on the substance and Arabia, the leader of the Sunni Islamic of the Trump administration, expecting meaning of this reaching out to Israel and world as well as Islam’s physical center if not hoping for a Democratic adminis- Jews in the rest of the world. Whatever by virtue of Saudi control of Mecca and tration. Washington’s focus on the pan- is reality, the stance is about to face two Medina, the two holy places of Islam. demic and the racial tension prompted tests: Israeli annexation of parts of the (The King of Saudi Arabia also carries by the killing of George Floyd in Min- West Bank and the possibility that Presi- the title of Custodian of the Two Holy nesota could well mean Tehran’s judge- dent Trump will not win a second term. Places. In the years following the Iranian ment is right. But don’t expect Iran to be One particular concern, or should revolution, there was tension in Mecca well-behaved, the temptation to take ad- be a concern, to Saudi Arabia and other and Medina when Iranian Shia pilgrims vantage of perhaps temporary weakness Gulf countries, is the extent to which travelled there.) in its adversaries will be too great. Gulf public opinion supports its lead- A particular aspect of the Islamic ership’s changing attitudes toward Is- republic’s view of the Persian Gulf region ❚ The Israel Factor rael. Attitudes, to the extent they can is that Tehran regards the security of the The major change that has emerged be measured, appear to be less than en- region to be the joint responsibility of the in the Middle East in recent years has thusiastic. The changed economic cir- countries of the region, a formulation been Gulf attitudes toward Israel. Ties cumstances brought on initially by low which does not include the United States, are no longer completely predicated on oil prices and then by the coronavirus nor other foreign countries like the for- the resolution of Palestinian demands, have already strained the local social mer quasi-colonial power, Britain. This which have been chiefly Israeli with- contracts. Ever opportunistic, Iran may is in direct contradiction with Washing- drawal to the 1967 lines as well as those find itself presented with a new weak- ton’s principal raison d’etre for being in Arabs claiming to be refugees being al- ness to exploit. the Gulf, which is to safeguard the flow of lowed to return to Israel itself. oil from the area to the rest of the world. Furthermore, the shift, which has SIMON HENDERSON is the Baker Domestically, the trends are con- been led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, fellow at The Washington Institute fusing. Broadly, the general population’s cannot be simply attributed to con- and director of the Institute’s Bernstein support for the government is under cern about Iran and the attractiveness Program on Gulf and Energy Policy.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 15 Iraq Tries to Separate Itself from Iran by ENTIFADH QANBAR

o understand Iraq and talk about about the people. They will let people very important message. its future, you first have to under- die, put out propaganda to cover it up, The message is clear. The Iraqi Shi’a stand Iran. and in the end blame someone else. and Iraqis in general refuse Iranian he- The Iranian regime is oppres- gemony and they made that statement in T ❚ sive, tyrannical, and totalitarian. In this Iraq’s New Government a way that cannot be ignored. Interest- kind of dictatorship, disasters and catas- Iraq is making an extraordinarily ingly, President Donald Trump did catch trophes do not play as out as they would strong anti-mullah, anti-Iran statement up with it and tweeted about the burn- in an open society like the United States with its new government. The anti- ing of the shrine. or other Western countries. Given the government and anti-Iranian dem- degree of oppression and suppression of onstrations, which started in October ❚ Saddam’s Demise and information and lack of transparency, 2019, are still going on today despite ‘Maximum Pressure’ it’s difficult for outside observers to be the pandemic. It has been almost eight That would have not happened certain even of what they’re looking at. months, and the demonstrations re- without two important events. We will never know the truth about a main a strong, daily occurrence. What The first is the “maximum pressure lot of things happening in Iran, includ- has not been reported in the United campaign” that President Trump has ing the result of the Covid-19 pandemic States is that thousands of young Iraqis imposed on Iran. It has not only weak- and the reinstated U.S. economic sanc- have been killed and 20,000 to 30,000 ened Iran economically, but it has also tions on the government. Add to that the people are injured or missing – and yet, shaken its image. Perception in the Mid- international drop in oil prices and the the protests are still going. dle East is a big deal. The Iranian regime country’s restless population and there Another thing people in the West had been perceived as powerful and un- is a lot of misinformation out there. may have missed—or what wasn’t prop- challengeable during the Obama admin- Being an Iraqi-American with a lot erly reported—is that the demonstra- istration, because of the way President of friends in Iraq who go back and forth to Iran, I hear stories. I believe there is a massive amount of coronavirus The Iraqi Shi’a and Iraqis in general refuse Iranian spread inside Iran, but we don’t know hegemony and they made that statement in a way the number—whether it is hundreds or thousands or hundreds of thousands that cannot be ignored. or millions. But it definitely will crip- ple the regime. How much will it hurt and in what ways? I don’t think we will tions came from the Shi’a heartland of Obama acquiesced to the regime’s ac- know until the effects appear outside Iraq. This is very significant because the tions. That spread the fear in the Middle the borders. Iranian government used to claim that East that the Iranian regime was able to As I said, you never get the truth, only the Iraqi Sunnis were against them, bring the United States to its knees. but very clearly, the disease is creating or the Kurds were against them, or both Most distressing were the pictures mayhem and problems inside Iran, espe- were against the Shi’a. But these Iraqi of the U.S. Navy sailors kidnapped by cially in light of the maximum pressure demonstrators are hardcore Shi’a believ- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard policy [Ed. Note: The U.S. restoration of ers, and they are burning the Iranian Corps in the Persian Gulf and the video sanctions] and the economic collapse— consulate in Karbala—which is the cra- of them sitting on their knees with their which is almost total. As the problems dle of Shi’ism, which contains the shrine hands behind their backs. Then, the add up for the ruling clerics, it is impor- of Imam Hussein [Ed. Note: Shi’a Islam’s shameful method of their release sent tant to understand that they don’t care founding martyr figure]—and that sent a another message to the people of the

16 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 ENTIFADH QANBAR: Iraq Tries to Separate Itself from Iran

The Turkish restaurant “Mount Uhud” is one of the symbols of the Iraqi October protest movement. (Photo: Mondalawy/Wikicommons)

Middle East that Iran was the strong man been for the liberation of Iraq, we would ❚ Iraq’s New Prime Minister and that the United States was weak. So, not be seeing this revolution. And let me Now there is a new prime minister, the Trump administration’s “maximum be clear, this revolution has hastened the Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. Some people in pressure campaign” was necessary to de- weakening of Iran, and we are seeing Washington view him as friendly to the stroy the image. It worked, and it has led signs of that every day. United States. I have known Mustafa Al- to the rise of the people of Iraq. The most important event that Kadhimi very well since the 1990s. As a weakened the Iranian regime was the person, he is a nice guy, but he is very ❚ On the Streets of Iraq killing of the most notorious terror- mediocre, he is very limited. His educa- It also has to be said that along with ists of at least the last 40 years, Qassem tion is extremely limited, and he is not the “maximum pressure campaign,” we Soleimani and with him Abu Mahdi al- known to be a strong personality. would not have this revolutionary mo- Muhandis. [Ed. Note: Soleimani headed Iraq today needs someone willing to ment—this uprising—if it had not been Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard throw himself into the fire to liberate the for the removal of [Iraqi dictator] Sad- Corps Quds Force and Iran’s chief means country. There are major issues in Iraq to dam [Hussein] in 2003 by the U.S.-led of international force projection and ter- be resolved. Most important, the biggest coalition. The people who are out in the rorism support. Al-Muhandis was deputy elephant in the room, are the Iranian- streets of Iraq now, the revolutionaries, leader of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization sponsored militias. The Shi’a militias are are all millennials who did not live under Forces, mostly Shi’a militias allied with an existential threat to Iraq as an inde- Saddam. They have lived under freedom Iran. They were killed in a U.S. drone pendent country. and violence, but most important, they strike near Baghdad International Air- In addition, al-Kadhimi must tackle have lived with freedom of information. port on January 3.] Their deaths embold- the issue of money laundering on behalf Yes, there is mayhem. There is cha- ened the people of Iraq against Iran. If of Iran and the draining of the Iraqi os. There is terrorism, but there is not a we continue this policy with Iran, we Treasury to Iran through the dollar auc- totalitarian regime that could oppress will see the end of Iran’s hegemony in tion by the Central Bank. This is not an them or suppress their ideas. If it had not Iraq, but not without a hefty price. issue that Americans are very familiar

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 17 with, but they are areas in which he must the parliament in Baghdad was entirely first-time terrorist militias are funded by act right away—if he doesn’t do them, or selected by Qassem Soleimani before a national government; even Hezbollah can’t do them, he will not be effective. his demise. [Ed. Note: Al-Muhandis had in Lebanon does not get funding from There is more. There are two issues been a member of parliament.] the government. The United States is that every post-war or post-revolution- Iraqi voter participation in the Feb- subsidizing the situation by giving the ary country has to deal with in order ruary 2020 election was below 25 per- Iraqi government aid without condi- to create a proper society. These are the cent, and there was tremendous electoral tions. Washington should always have conditions—if Iraq needs financial help from America, it should stop paying the Government officials are using the United States to militias. The policy must be very pin- protect the regime and the establishment of corrupt pointed and very strict with no blank check and no “wiggle room.” In the in- officials, rather than using the United States as a terest of U.S. national security as well as friend and ally. regional security, Washington should call the government in Baghdad to ac- count for every step and every action punishment of people who perpetrated fraud. Many of the names on the voter and every dollar. crimes against the protesters, and the rolls were forged and most of the parlia- And, perhaps most important, release of peaceful protesters who have ment, if not all of it, was selected, not Americans should understand that the been wrongly accused of heinous crimes. elected, but selected, by Soleimani. Even protest movement, against Iran and These are all challenges Mustafa Al- if we have a good prime minister, it will against corruption in Iraq, is still viable, Kadhimi has to face. I am very skeptical. be very difficult for him to do anything still very strong, still very solid despite I hope he will succeed, but at the same in light of a legislature whose members the arrests and deaths suffered at the time I am skeptical. And in my skepti- stood weeping and crying inside the hands of the government and the mili- cism, I am going to keep my eye on him. parliament building for hours the day tias. The young people are not fooled by He made a promise, for example, after Soleimani was eliminated. empty promises. They are not going to that the first day he was in office he was At this moment, the Iraqi govern- be swayed by cosmetic changes. They going to release all the peaceful protest- ment is closing its eyes to attacks by want to overthrow the corrupt Iraqi re- ers in Iraqi prisons. But the spokesman militias against the Americans. Govern- gime. They want to end the hegemony of of the Iraqi High Court said, “We do not ment officials are using the United States Iran over Iraq. have any peaceful protesters in prison.” to protect the regime and the establish- The current prime minister, despite Of course not, first, because they were ment of corrupt officials, rather than us- the hopes of a lot of people, never men- falsely accused of violent crimes, and ing the United States as a friend and ally. tioned Iran’s hegemony, the number one second, because many of protesters are America should appeal to the Iraqi peo- demand of the demonstrators, including in the hands of the Shi’a militias who ple, not to Baghdad. The United States Shia protesters. In May, demonstrators work for Iran. The court is not prepared should always appeal to the people—it burned every Shia party headquarters or to admit that either is the case, so it sim- is always the case that the United States building in the southern cities of Iraq for ply rejects the idea. wins when it does that. the 10th time – or maybe the 20th time. Will al-Kadhimi stand up to the They have sent yet another message that courts as well as to Iran? We must wait ❚ The People of Iraq are they refuse parties who are proxies of Iran. and see, but in the meantime, I recom- America’s Friends The United States should look at mend that people in Washington not over- The people of Iraq are friends of the this and understand what the Iraqi peo- praise him or overstate what he can do. United States. The government of Iraq ple want, not what bureaucrats in the is not friend; it is an enemy. Any policy U.S. Embassy in Baghdad decide in co- ❚ Iraq as U.S. enemy made toward Iraq by Washington has to ordination with corrupt officials in the Let me be very, very honest, and take this into consideration. The United Iraqi government. clear: Iraq today is an enemy of the Unit- States, for example, is helping Iraq finan- The latter is not what the Iraqi peo- ed States. The current regime in Iraq is cially at the same time the Iraqi govern- ple want. an enemy of the United States. Why? ment is using part of its budget to fund Iraq, constitutionally, is a parliamen- Shia militias – $2 billion for salaries and ENTIFADH QANBAR is Presi- tary system, with parliamentarians—in $3-4 billion in logistical support. dent of the Futures Foundation theory—chosen by the electorate. But Iraq today, I believe, represents the and an Iraq-born U.S. citizen.

18 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 COVID-19 and Erdogan’s Power Consolidation by AYKAN ERDEMIR

ince the rise to power of the Is- government’s first impulse, like that of their parliamentary status before arrest- lamist-rooted Justice and Devel- Iran, was to delay announcing the first ing them on June 4. Despite passing a opment Party (AKP) in Turkey official case and underreport infection bill on April 14 to release some 90,000 Sin 2002, its leader Recep Tayyip and fatality figures. inmates, including mob bosses, rack- Erdogan has used successive crises as Following suit with other authori- eteers, and looters, to reduce the risk of pretexts to consolidate power that has tarian regimes, the Erdogan government a COVID-19 outbreak in crowded pris- facilitated his increasingly autocratic employed tactics of scapegoating and re- ons, the Turkish government has kept rule. From Turkish history’s biggest cor- pression to silence critics and deflect re- political prisoners behind bars, includ- ruption scandal in December 2013 to a sponsibility for the COVID-19-induced ing former presidential candidate Se- failed coup attempt in July 2016, Erdo- public health and economic crises. Tur- lahattin Demirtas of the pro-Kurdish gan—first as prime minister and then key’s religious minorities and LGBT+ Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and as president—has succeeded in turning individuals received blame for the pan- scores of other HDP lawmakers, mayors, existential threats to his rule into an op- demic, leading to a spike in hate crimes. and party officials. portunity to eliminate political oppo- Turkish authorities have arrested Erdogan and his ultranationalist nents, undermine checks and balances, over 400 individuals for allegedly in- allies in the Nationalist Action Party and amass greater personal power. It flammatory social media posts about the (MHP) also saw the crisis as an opportu- is, therefore, no surprise that the Turk- coronavirus outbreak. They have also nity to change Turkey’s election laws and ish president exploited the COVID-19 detained and interrogated journalists for further tilt the uneven electoral playing pandemic as yet another pretext for reporting on COVID-19. Erdogan even field to their advantage. In May, the MHP strengthening hyper-centralist rule—a filed a criminal complaint against the suggested amendments to make it more difficult for newly established parties to run in elections, a move that aims to prevent two splinter parties established Erdogan’s steps… go beyond moves to manipulate by Erdogan’s former colleagues—for- election calendars and laws, disenfranchise the mer Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s Future Party (GP) and former Deputy opposition, and extend into repressive measures. Prime Minister Ali Babacan’s Remedy Party (DEVA)—from diverting votes from Erdogan’s AKP–MHP alliance in the event of a snap election. In June, the development likely to exacerbate ram- anchor of Fox TV’s Turkish subsidiary government took a further step to start pant authoritarianism at home and bel- for “spreading lies and manipulating the drafting a bill which aims to introduce ligerence abroad. public on social media,” after the anchor three separate electoral thresholds at suggested in a tweet that the government the local, national, and electoral alli- ❚ Political Consolidation might require all bank account holders ance levels to further restrict opposition Turkey reported over 174,000 to provide contributions to the cam- parties’ and electoral alliances’ ability to cases of COVID-19 as of June 12 and paign against the coronavirus. win seats in parliamentary elections. is the second worst-hit country in the The Turkish president also targeted Turkey’s parliamentary-cum-presi- Middle East behind Iran, and the 12th- elected officials, removing eight opposi- dential elections are not due until June worst worldwide. Following the onset tion mayors from office on March 24 and 2023 and Erdogan is known to dislike of the novel coronavirus, the Turkish stripping three opposition lawmakers of calling early elections, which he sees as

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 19 a sign of weakness. Nevertheless, he has squeeze, ending the global liquidity glut, depleted its net international reserves given in to such pressure before. In June which until then allowed Turkey to access (excluding swap lines) in April. Ankara’s 2018, Erdogan’s ultranationalist part- cheap capital made available in the after- $15 billion lira-riyal swap deal in late ners, fearing the potential consequences math of the 2008 global financial crisis. May with Qatar, one of its last remaining of Turkey’s imminent economic down- As a result, Ankara—just like its allies, and the central bank’s borrowing turn, convinced him to hold early elec- emerging market peers—has found in- of $17 billion from local lenders through tions, although they were not due until ternational capital markets less willing its swap facility year-to-date were futile November 2019. The ruling Islamist-ul- to fund its chronic current account defi- attempts to mask the significant decline tranationalist alliance managed to se- cit. Ankara’s economic woes prevented in the country’s foreign reserves. cure a new mandate six weeks before the Erdogan from offering substantial as- A week after Ankara reported its country’s currency meltdown on Aug. sistance to Turkish citizens, prompting first COVID-19 case, economy czar Al- 10, 2018, known as Black Friday, which him to declare, “Turkey is a country that bayrak—who shares Erdogan’s unortho- resulted in the Turkish lira losing 44 per- needs to continue production and keep dox economic approach—appeared ir- cent of its value from the beginning of the year. Erdogan’s steps to consolidate po- litical power go beyond moves to ma- ...the Turkish president’s near-total control over the nipulate election calendars and laws, disenfranchise the opposition, and ex- central bank means his unorthodox economic views tend into repressive measures. On June end up dictating Turkey’s monetary policy. 11, the Turkish government pushed a bill through parliament that granted greater powers to over 20,000 “neighborhood watchmen,” a loyalist force outside regu- lar military and police units, which ana- the wheels turning under all conditions rationally exuberant in stating that he lysts compare to Iran’s Basij and Ven- and circumstances,” a move that exacer- had no concerns about meeting the gov- ezuela’s Colectivo. bated the pandemic. ernment’s growth, budget, and inflation Given Erdogan’s move to annul Meanwhile, the Turkish president’s targets for 2020, predicting 5 percent Istanbul’s mayoral election, which his near-total control over the central bank growth for the year. Turkey’s central candidate lost in March 2019, and hold means his unorthodox economic views bank, similarly downplayed the pan- a rerun, which the AKP again lost two end up dictating Turkey’s monetary demic’s threat, declaring, “With its dy- months later, there are growing concerns policy. Erdogan, who denounced inter- namic structure, the Turkish economy that the Turkish president is preparing est as “the mother and father of all evil” will be among those that will get over not to concede defeat even if he loses the in 2018, not only sees interest rates as this process with minimum damage and next parliamentary-cum-presidential a “tool of exploitation” and compares in a short time.” elections. The Turkish president’s sys- them to “heroin trade,” but also insists International observers could not tematic campaign through media and that high interest rates lead to higher in- have disagreed more. On April 30, the courts to criminalize the entire opposi- flation. In keeping with his anti-Semitic German daily Die Welt warned about the tion is a worrying sign about the dark and conspiratorial worldview, the Turk- possibility of a Turkish sovereign default. turn Erdogan’s ongoing consolidation of ish president even believes an “interest- As of May 10, the price of Turkey’s 5-year power can take in the near future. rate lobby” led by Jews is aiming to tank credit default swaps (CDS), which insure Turkey’s economy. against a default on Turkish sovereign ❚ Economic Ruin Add to this his son-in-law’s fixation debt, rose to 643, its all-time high, im- Turkey’s economy was in dire straits with defending the Turkish currency’s plying over 10 percent probability of de- long before the onset of the coronavirus exchange rate, first at 6 and then at 7 fault. Turkey’s debt ranked as the world’s pandemic, as mismanagement by Er- liras to the dollar, by forcing Turkey’s third riskiest at the time after Venezuela dogan and his unqualified son-in-law, state banks to sell about $44 billion of and Argentina. The Wall Street Journal Finance and Treasury Minister Berat Al- hard currency in the first four months cautioned on May 12 that the pandemic bayrak, resulted in a currency meltdown of 2020 and some $77 billion since the threatened to push Turkey into a full- in 2018 and a recession in 2019. The U.S. beginning of 2019. Albayrak’s ineffec- blown balance-of-payments crisis. Federal Reserve’s tapering of quantita- tive defense of the currency has proved The Erdogan-Albayrak team’s dis- tive easing in 2018 led to a dollar liquidity catastrophic as Turkey’s central bank mal economic policies have eroded

20 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 AYKAN ERDEMIR: COVID-19 and Erdogan’s Power Consolidation investor confidence, triggered capital ability to exploit the threat of economic Erdogan with greater control over the flight, and scared away potential capi- contagion and play the “too big to fail” workings of the Turkish economy, offer- tal inflows. Over the past 12 months, card in relations with the country’s treaty ing him greater opportunity to bolster his foreign investors have withdrawn more allies in the transatlantic world. But it has patronage networks and hyper-central- than $10 billion from Turkey’s local- offered the Turkish president greater abil- ized rule, and paving the way for greater currency bond and equity markets, the ity to consolidate economic alongside po- consolidation of political power. biggest outflow since January 2016. This litical power. Erdogan appears open to the year alone, international investors have idea of being in charge of a poorer country, ❚ Grim Outlook sold $7.9 billion worth of Turkish gov- as long as it is more strictly under his Is- Together with his ultranationalist ernment bonds, more than halving their lamist tutelage. Turkey’s GDP per capita allies, Erdogan’s ongoing monopoliza- holdings. Although this trend spells di- in current U.S. dollars has been declin- tion of political and economic power saster for Turkey, an economy increas- ing consistently from its all-time high of have further undermined Turkey’s al- ingly disconnected from the global mar- $12,519 in 2013 to $8,958 as of 2019, 75th ready weak checks and balances, erod- kets provides Erdogan an opportunity in the world. During the same time, the ing what little is left of his government’s to bring the commerce further under his world’s GDP per capita rose from $10,771 accountability. The resulting impunity command and continue its transforma- to over $11,300. on the home front has also led to a more tion into state-cum-crony capitalism. As part of his push for greater con- belligerent and irredentist position in trol of the economy, the Turkish presi- foreign and security policy in the Mid- ❚ Withdrawing from the West dent has already taken steps to introduce dle East and North Africa. Ankara’s as- For decades, analysts have argued protectionist measures, pick business sertive stance in the Eastern Mediterra- that Turkey’s great fortune was not to winners from among his loyalists, and nean even prompted the Turkish Foreign be afflicted by the resource curse of its reshuffle wealth in the country from Ministry on May 12 to identify France, neighbors in the Middle East, whose Turkey’s pro-Western business elite to Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and the United rentier economies, dependent on hy- his cronies. On May 20, Ankara im- Arab Emirates as an “alliance of evil.” drocarbon revenues, precluded institu- posed an additional tariff of up to 30 The Erdogan government today appears tionalization of democratic governance percent on imports of more than 800 more emboldened to use gunboat diplo- and competitive free market economies. items, including steel and iron products, macy, military deployments, and proxy Turkey’s need to finance its chronic cur- spare parts, and work and agriculture forces to push its Islamist-cum-ultrana- rent account deficit through an export- machinery, in a move analysts inter- tionalist agenda to the detriment of its oriented economy and tourism, many preted as Turkey’s return to its policy of neighbors and treaty allies in NATO. believed, would provide an antidote to import substitution, characteristic of its Erdogan’s consolidation of a hy- the authoritarian ambitions of the likes Cold War economy until early the 1980s. per-centralist regime that gives him of Erdogan. Erdogan also started probing the sweeping power over domestic politics, Furthermore, many hoped, steady idea—for the fourth time within the economics, and foreign and security af- Western investment in the Turkish past two years—of taking over Turkey’s fairs will inevitably prove disastrous for economy would not only keep Western largest private bank, which has so far Turkey. The current trend is likely to ex- finance and business professionals vest- protected its reputation for good gov- acerbate capital flight and brain drain, ed in the country’s financial governance ernance and a pro-secular ethos. There and pivot Turkey further away from and prospects, but also keep Western of- are also reports that Erdogan might na- NATO allies and transatlantic values. ficials vested in the country’s democracy tionalize a number of his vanity proj- It is possible that Erdogan can entrench and rule of law. This no longer seems to ects, in which the Turkish government’s himself and his circle of cronies despite be the case as Erdogan’s erratic policies leasing, purchasing, and turnover guar- his weakening electoral support, but the have already pushed a significant num- antees to public-private partnership Turkey he would end up dominating ber of foreign investors out, and as a companies amounting to $142 billion would inevitably be poorer, highly vola- Reuters report argued in May, Turkey’s were beginning to develop into a finan- tile, and more isolated, following a well- “diminished importance for investors cial quagmire. established pattern with other Islamist in developing economies ... has greatly Meanwhile, the Turkish president and authoritarian regimes. reduced the risk of contagion across continues to use Turkey’s sovereign emerging markets.” wealth fund as a parallel budget not sub- AYKAN ERDEMIR is a former member Turkey’s ongoing drift from the West- ject to audit by parliament or the Court of of the Turkish parliament and the senior ern politico-economic sphere and free Final Accounts. Overall, these steps and director of the Turkey Program at the market principles has limited Erdogan’s others have the potential of providing Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 21 “A Partnership to Nurture” An inFOCUS interview with BG ASSAF ORION, IDF (Res.) Brigadier General Assaf Orion, IDF (Res.) is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, serving as director of the Israel-China program. He is also an International Fellow at The Washington Institute. Previously, BG Orion served as head of the Strategic Division in the Planning Directorate of the IDF General Staff, where he was in charge of policy, strategy, international cooperation and liaison with neighboring militaries and peacekeeping forces. He led the IDF team to the tripartite meetings with UNIFIL and the Lebanese army, took part in the U.S.-Israel security dialogue, and represented the IDF in talks with the Palestinian Authority. inFOCUS editor Shoshana Bryen spoke with him in late May.

inFOCUS: To jump right in, how between anywhere in Israel and the the authority to decide on the eligibil- much influence does the Unit- frontiers where we are fighting. ity of an investment. But now they have ed States have over Israel’s de- What we should consider is some- an advisory committee in the Treasury cisions on security trade with thing in keeping with today’s challenges, Ministry, with the participation of our any other country, not just which is a strategic innovation and tech- security agencies to consider the nation- China, but any other country? nology alliance. And that means putting al security aspects of such investments. together our forte – innovation, startup But the committee’s ruling is not BG Orion: The U.S. is our closest stra- industry – the inventive part of our two binding. On top of that, technology in tegic and defense partner, just about an nations, so to speak. Israel is generally unregulated except ally except without the treaty. American when it is defense related. So, the chief opinions, positions, concerns are well heard in Israel. I think the issue here is, when do you get to an exclusive either/ or situation? And the answer is, not yet, [We need] a fine delineation of the red or “absolutely and not on everything. The U.S. has in- fluence on Israel, but how to adapt to fast not,” the green, the “absolutely yes,” and all the moving, dramatically moving, environ- yellow that “we still need to think about.” ment and landscape is still open, both here and in America.

iF: Do you think it would be a good idea for the United States iF: In that regard, Israel has concern on the U.S. side, which is non- and Israel to sign a formal de- opened a committee to consid- directly defense related technology, is fense pact? er strategic trade with oth- not addressed by the mechanism. The er countries and to see what U.S. definition of national security relat- BG Orion: Most senior defense officials might have national security ed matters has widely expanded, while and others in Israel generally stop short implications. Can you talk to Israel’s remained rather narrow. of that because, on the one hand, our us about what it is supposed to The last point is that the American main ethos is protecting and defend- do, and whether you actually intelligence community’s priority for ing ourselves, by ourselves. We spill see it doing that? many years has been China, which was our own blood in our own wars, and we never a top priority target for Israel; it’s don’t expect the U.S. to fight for us under BG Orion: It is an advisory committee not an enemy, it’s not on our top list. We any circumstance, while we very much on national security issues in foreign in- do Iran, we do regional Middle Eastern appreciate America’s material support vestment. In Israel there are professional trouble, military issues, proliferation. enabling us to do so. And, on the other regulators in many parts of the govern- China as China is, perhaps, a concern, hand, we don’t do expeditionary wars. ment, including infrastructure, finance, but is not seen as a severe and direct na- All of our fighting is around our homes insurance, communication, etc. And tional security threat. The intelligence – we are only about two hours’ drive these regulators did, and still do, have picture in Israel on China is far behind

22 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 ASSAF ORION: Interview what we have on our top priority targets, and miles away from what the U.S. has. So, in order to professionally address American concerns, Israel will need bet- ter intelligence, perhaps with American support. iF: How broadly does Israel de- fine national security? Does it include things like food sup- ply, water supply, medical sys- tems? Is that changing?

BG Orion: We have quite a wide nation- al security definition, but it is more of a moving target. In the good – or bad – old days, Israel and the U.S. reached an un- derstanding about defense and military and dual use exports to China, and none of those have been happening since at least 2005. So, it is clear cut where the traffic light is red. But what used to be either red or green in each nation is now divided into three colors. The American red is much wider than it used to be. On com- munications, Israel was clear very early on: we don’t have serious foreign influ- ence or access to our communications in third and fourth generation technol- ogy, let alone 5G. So actually, Israel is an outlier here and I think we’re well- known for being rather strict on tradi- Brigadier General Assaf Orion, IDF (Res.) tional security. is a very wide discussion that cannot how they go. Not a treaty, but The tricky part is that what used to be ruled technically, it needs a fine de- rather a way Israel and the constitute military, defense, and dual lineation of the red, or the “absolutely United States could open that use items was quite limited in scope. not,” of the green, the “absolutely yes,” door and widen the road for Now everything is dual use. From the and all the yellow that “we still need to conversation. American perspective, almost every- think about.” thing can be used for military purposes. We need to understand that the BG Orion: It’s beyond conversation. It is Our data is definitely security connect- lines are moving in the U.S. and it needs actually reframing our relationship ac- ed. Medical issues now are perceived as synchronization and coordination with cording to what is now at the top of the security, finance is perceived as security. its partners. American list and the main issues shap- Everything is perceived as security. ing the global order. Each nation needs to strike the right iF: Senators Tom Cotton and During the Cold War, we knew our balance between economic benefits and Gary Peters, a Republican and definitions and we fought over here, and it security. In Germany, we saw the gov- a Democrat, proposed the es- well served the U.S. grand strategy against ernment step in and move against sales tablishment of a U.S.-Israel the Soviets. During the Global War on of a robotics factory, KUKA, to China operations technology work- Terrorism, Israel was a willing partner because it didn’t want to lose the tech- ing group precisely to talk in many things; we saved a lot of lives nological edge and economic future. It about where the lines are and together. In the current context, which

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 23 is the Great Power Competition, the U.S. here despite the crises and tremors of the in Djibouti in the Bab el Mandeb Straits put a target on China. We need to move last decade. at the southern part of the Red Sea. In from the point where most of the dialogue It started with the poetically named Egypt itself there are all sorts of projects. between Israel and the U.S. is centered on “Arab Spring,” with the fall of the In May, we heard that Russia would pro- prohibitions: “We expect Israel not to do Mubarak regime, with the rise of the vide Egypt with Sukhoi-35 jets [modern this, not to do that,” and into an alliance Muslim Brotherhood regime, with the multi-role fighters], and it is building mode, which means: “How can we work return of the al-Sisi government, which Egypt’s first nuclear power plant. together and synergize?” is actually the Egyptian establishment The U.S. is sitting with a force on a We can actually do quite a lot of returning. During that period, security strategic waterway. Pulling up anchor things together. Most of our high-tech in Sinai was, and still is, quite badly af- and ceding ground to Russia and China industry is Westward looking. There’s a fected. The rise of terror organizations, seems like the wrong thing to do and the lot of cooperation going on, a lot of He- insurgency in the peninsula, and the wrong time to do it. brew on the West Coast, in Silicon Val- rise of ISIS Sinai Province all produced a So, you have an Israeli reason to ley. It’s already quite robust, but we can rough ride for both Israel and Egypt. We keep that going. You have an Israel- and we must take it to the next level. At had several attacks on our borders, we Egyptian regional stability reason. And some point, it will become a more crys- had casualties on both sides, we needed the Israel-Egyptian treaty is probably tallized coalition policy. I expect Israel, to tamp things down and liaise. ihe crown jewel of American diplomacy together with other advanced technol- We saw the Egyptian armed forces in the Middle East. For America’s own ogy nations, to camp out with the U.S. needing a stronger military response in interest, both in Middle Eastern terms and widen the Western wagon circle. Sinai and needing to exceed the treaty and in Great Power Competition and It doesn’t mean that Israel will see limitations between us [Ed. established Indo-Pacific terms, you risk a disastrous China as an enemy or a rival, turning as part of the 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace loss for a very small saving. against it, but it means that our relations Treaty]. And the MFO, as an interna- with the U.S. will focus on what we do tional umbrella with an American core iF: Can you talk about Iran best, and that’s advanced technologies. was an asset for diplomacy, verification, and Syria, and Russia and Syr- military presence, and so on, helped us ia? Given Iran’s economic and iF: I’m going to change geo- graphical positions. There was a suggestion in the Pentagon that the United States might The U.S. is sitting with a force on a strategic remove the American contin- gent from the Multinational waterway. Pulling up anchor and ceding ground to Force and Observers (MFO) in Russia and China seems like the wrong thing to do Sinai. Given the state of rela- tions with Egypt, perhaps that and the wrong time to do it. force isn’t necessary anymore.

BG Orion: I’ve just coauthored a paper on the MFO for the Washington Insti- to navigate through that choppy water. coronavirus problems, can tute called Avoiding an Epic Mistake. Saying, okay, we don’t need it now Iran continue to maintain its This has been a disproportionately because Israel and Egypt are grownups, presence in Syria? beneficial mission at relatively low risk is the wrong conclusion. We need it. and low cost. Most of the MFO budget Without the U.S. it will collapse. With- BG Orion: Iran has a commitment to is divided between Egypt, the U.S., and out the MFO, relations between Israel Syria going back to at least 1979, when Israel in more or less equal shares. There and Egypt will be tougher to maintain. Hafez al-Assad sided with Iran against is partner participation by other nations, And bottom line, the main idea behind Iraq in their decade-long war. Going so the 450 American troops are the back- the withdrawal of American assets from farther back, as an ancient empire the bone of a force of more than 1,100. The the MFO is its relevance to the Ameri- Persians always wanted access to the strategic benefits are outstanding. Rath- can National Defense Strategy, which is Mediterranean Sea. Iran’s commitment er than being superfluous now that rela- focused on Great Power Competition. to the Levant is deep-rooted and it’s not tions between Israel and Egypt are great, China is economically active in expected to wither anytime soon. it actually explains how the relations got Egypt. It’s growing its maritime presence How they do it is developing over

24 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 ASSAF ORION: Interview time. It used to be mostly through sup- Hezbollah, which provided the foot sol- supports a lot of bad things happening plies, logistics, financial support to diers, the Russian air force and special in Gaza. Things have come to a very low the Assad regime, and to Hezbollah in forces actually turned the tide. Syria un- point, but we still have reasonable trade Lebanon, the flagship of their proxy [ter- der Assad was saved, and Russia gained exchange and we’re trying not to get rorism] industry. Since the beginning of a port on the Mediterranean, several air onto a collision course. the war in Syria, they have ratcheted up bases, some economic prospects, and an We find ourselves in the Eastern their involvement. And in 2017, Iran de- opportunity to tackle Turkey from the Mediterranean, aligned with actors cided to try to establish a military base south, actually pull it away from NATO that Turkey sees as its competitors, if for itself in Syria and thus have a frontier a bit, and shake it. He tried to make not rivals, with Greece, with Cyprus, with Israel. Syria a great diversion from the war in with Egypt in some manner on the gas Israel has been running against Ukraine and leverage for Russian influ- project. And Turkey seems to be quite them for years, developing the concept ence in the Middle East to promote Rus- aggressive in its approach, alienating of “the campaign between the wars,” sian arms sales. many, many others. You can now see or actually a long campaign to counter So, Israel woke up one day with a it playing out in Libya and how it plays Iran’s long campaign. There was a grad- new military neighbor on our northern the refugee card against Europe. Turkey ual buildup and growth in the Iranian border. We wisely created deconfliction and Russia sometimes hit it off together, presence in Syria, but then came an air- channels and wisely managed a useful but most of the time they tread carefully. strike campaign and an erosion of their strategic dialogue. We have our differ- They move between crises, understand- capabilities, troops, units, factories, ences; I don’t think we have illusions ings, coercion, and the next crisis. There arms transports, caches, and so on. This that Russia will do Israel’s work there. is no love, but there are some interests is an ongoing contest, with fewer re- But unlike Turkey, even when a Russian that they can pursue together. sources available to Iran now because of plane was in our airspace, we were wise the sanctions regime. Starved of oil rev- enough not to shoot it down, but to es- iF: How does Israel look at the enues and finding it very difficult on the cort it out, professionally, and preserve threat Hezbollah poses in Leb- coronavirus front, Iran has problems. our relations. anon and is there anything you But Iran also knows how to bleed thou- There’s no question on which side can it do about it? sands of people without being staggered of the Great Power Competition Israel and it is a ruthless regime. It maintains stands, but not every issue has to be de- BG Orion: I wouldn’t say that we’re not itself, adjusts the pace and means, and cided exclusively. So, we can have a great doing anything about it. But we certainly remains focused. alliance with the U.S., we can have good don’t go to war because as [Defense Min- So they reorganized and tried to understandings with Russia and mili- ister and former Chief of the IDF Staff] deploy more proxies and fewer Iranians. tary deconfliction in Syria, and we can Benny Gantz used to say, “Operations They redeployed from west to east, they have reasonable and seemingly friendly we do when we can; wars we do when we changed their ways and their logistic trade relations with China, without any must.” War is not the first choice of our lines, and so on. They suffered a huge illusion that China will ever support policy options. It is our boys and our fam- setback losing Soleimani – America did a us in the United Nations, or that it will ilies in the line of fire. great service to all the peace-loving peo- prefer us over the great majority of Arab The number one conventional threat ple in the Middle East. But this is a mara- and Muslim states and populations. to Israel is Hezbollah. But Hezbollah is thon. I don’t expect Iran to stop anytime China knows its math. an operational part of a strategic system soon. It will tune down and up, adjust We’re muddling through this, but whose great potential comes from Iran: and adapt, and continue. So will Israel. there’s no question who our strategic the industry, the science, the finance, the Russia is also a long story, begin- ally is in this equation. arms, the technology, the logistics – all ning during the Cold War, if not back of it comes from Iran. You need to un- in Czarist times. Syria was a protégé iF: Turkey? derstand the full picture. of the Soviet Union. Since the early Second, Hezbollah has grown 1970s, Russia has felt pushed out of BG Orion: We should do our best to something like tenfold since 2006. How- the Middle East, but in 2015, President avoid open hostilities; we should do our ever, since the Second Lebanon War in Vladimir Putin identified a great op- best to tamp down the tensions. But we that year, both sides have enjoyed the portunity for a comeback. With a small cannot overlook the fact that [Presi- longest calm period along the Blue Line, force but without any scruples, he used dent Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has quite a the border between us. They are deterred it ruthlessly, relentlessly. Together with clear ideological view: he backs Hamas, and we have no business going to war by Iran, the [Bashar al-]Assad regime and he backs the Muslim Brotherhood, he choice. Actually, both sides would rather

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 25 not go to war, because they also under- threats around it. The most direct-action We have some idea of what UN can stand there will be an unprecedented cases were when we saw nuclear capa- and can’t do. It’s been improving in that level of destruction. An article I coau- bilities budding or coming to fruition it’s been telling the truth more since [for- thored about that in the Atlantic Coun- in enemy countries. Iraq in 1981, Syria mer U.S. Ambassador to the UN] Nikki cil was entitled “Counting the Cost.” in 2007. And Israel’s position on Iran’s Haley successfully carried through UN So, what does Israel do? nuclear program is well-known, and Security Council Resolution 2373 in 2017. First, it’s a spatial problem, spread thankfully shared by the U.S., that it will Since then, UN[IFIL] reports have greatly from Tehran and its industries all the not be permitted to get there. improved, providing a good factual base way to Beirut, not just Southern Leba- Hezbollah is a piece of that machine from which to discuss policy issues, non, but all of Lebanon. Since their and we’re dealing with it separately, policy differences, things that should be rockets and missiles include heavy mis- while seeing the system as a whole. We done, things that can be done. We should siles with a range of hundreds of kilo- deter it, so it is restrained, we find ways be thinking about how to apply more meters, and they can also launch from to expose it, although it tries to stay con- pressure on Hezbollah, and at the same Syria and Iraq, we can’t do a Southern cealed. Our intelligence collection there time to stabilize. Lebanon-focused operation and get rid is relentless, and we know much more UNIFIL today suffers serious gaps of it for good. Like in your garden, if you about the Hezbollah than they’d like us between its size and its authority and cut a weed without uprooting it, it will to know. And should the war start, the its local permissions. My own sugges- grow again, unless you take care of the massive precision strike that Israel will tion is to either expand its authority to logistics, the roots, the veins. Hezbollah launch against Hezbollah will be stag- fit the mandate and its spirit or down- is a regenerating hydra; it grows heads as gering. It doesn’t mean that we won’t get size its force and its budget, according soon as you chop other heads off. This is a bloody nose, but the damage to Hez- to what it is permitted by Lebanon to why Israel is trying to work within “the campaign between wars,” to apply or encourage financial pressure, sanctions, The Lebanese government has to understand that it and to disrupt logistical efforts. We go after the weapon transports, factories, can’t go on ... impeding UNIFIL’s mission and failing warehouses, in all the supply lines. to protect it, while enjoying the cloak of legitimacy... Syria has seen hundreds of strikes during those years. [Hezbollah Secre- tary General] Hassan Nasrallah, said in a recent speech, “Israel’s focus in Syria is bollah, to Lebanon, to Southern Leba- do. The Lebanese government has to going after the missile factories, and the non, to the Shiite areas where it chose understand that it can’t go on like this, missile assets.” Prime Minister [Benja- to embed its military assets, and Beirut, impeding UNIFIL’s mission and failing min] Netanyahu, went to the UN Gener- will be unprecedented. It’s something to protect it, while enjoying the cloak of al Assembly and showed the production best to avoid. legitimacy and material benefits of an sites of the precision missiles and said, oversized UN mission. “You need to move it, otherwise we’ll iF: Does the UN Interim Force take care of it.” They apparently moved in Lebanon (UNIFIL) help or iF: The last area is the Gulf it while denying it existed. does it hurt? States and what appears to If you compare what Hezbollah and be an opening to Israel. Not Iran planned to have ready by now with BG Orion: Both. It helps in diffusing ten- friendship, but an opening that what they actually have, they have prob- sions through liaison, avoiding tactical in- suggests one of two things: ei- ably been set back several years. Israel’s cidents flaring up to full scale escalation. ther that they’re interested in strategy is not going to war needlessly On the other hand, UNIFIL’s work has Israel as an ally against Iran; or too early, at the same time not sitting been impeded wherever it is really impor- or they have finally decided idly and watching the enemy build up, tant. Hezbollah harasses the UN patrols, they’re not going to get rid of and trying to disrupt it all the time while impeding their movement and access, de- Israel so they might as well remaining under the threshold of war. terring them from documentation, from learn to live with it. That’s a fine balancing act. If you go too exposing its illicit military assets and hard and too fast, you’ll find yourself in operations, and so on. And the Lebanese BG Orion: Every nation has its own a war that you’d like to avoid. government and its army are playing a priorities. All Middle Eastern rulers are Israel, from birth, has had many very convoluted game there. trying to navigate between their people

26 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 ASSAF ORION: Interview

Troops stationed with the UNIFIL mission during a training. (Photo: Italy Defense Ministry) and their reading of their national in- foreign to the area. Leaders themselves, BG Orion: It is a fascinating young terest. After the last decade of upheaval, around the Gulf, and each is a bit dif- state of an ancient people. It is pioneer- most of the Middle East looked around ferent, say the following, “When we ing in unbelievable ways. It has quite a and said, “First we worry about our pub- look at the real life around us, Israel is few challenges within and without. Af- lic and how we stay alive as regimes.” not our problem, it’s not attacking us, ter its fantastic human capital, what it Look at Cairo, Damascus, Yemen, Libya it’s a good resource, it’s a good security really needs are like-minded allies and – these ended badly for the rulers, their partner, it helps against Iran, it helps partners with similar values – meaning people, or both. against radicalism.” the U.S. Second, around us are two loci of I read media reports that terror ele- Going back to the beginning of this radicalism. One is Shiite radicalism, led ments in the Sinai are complaining that conversation, to China and the fram- by Iran, a systemically destabilizing ac- they are struck from above, perhaps ing of, “Israel needs to choose.” People tor, trying to subvert and undermine all by Israel. I guess that if it’s true, Egypt do not choose between their family and the Gulf regimes, to terrorize them and both sanctions it and enjoys it, and at their friendly grocer. They stick with coerce them, and finally to topple them. the same time probably denies it. That’s their family and buy at their grocer. I The other is Sunni radicalism, let’s code fine. Everybody is treading a fine line be- think the U.S. and Israel enjoy the sta- name it ISIS, but it is everything from tween their actual reading and what the tus of family. And that’s a partnership to Al-Qaeda and branching northward. public would like to know. Middle East- nurture into the future. Realistically, Arab leaders came to ern politics are like a double decker bus: understand, and sometimes even to ad- what people do quietly in the lower deck iF: On behalf of the Jewish Pol- mit, that the Palestinian cause doesn’t is seldom expressed explicitly in the up- icy Center and the readers of play a real role in their interests except per deck. inFOCUS Quarterly, I want to in the public domain, public sensitivity, thank you for an outstand- public emotion. Palestine does resonate iF: As a closing remark, what ing contribution to our un- in Arab politics and narratives as a case would you like to say to our derstanding of Israel and the of injustice, of Muslim and Arab humil- readers? What should they Middle East. iation to a Western entity, to something know about Israel that per- that they perceive as being external or haps they don’t know? BG Orion: You are very welcome.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 27 Resilience: Israel’s Reaction to the COVID-19 Epidemic by LENNY BEN-DAVID

he Mayo Clinic has a definition of Obviously, “resiliency” is the most Ottoman sanitary officials to maintain “psychological resilience” that is important word to describe the Jewish adequate hygiene. It was during these appropriate for Israel. “The abil- people immediately after the Holocaust. marches that soldiers would at random Tity to adapt to difficult situations. Defiance, vengefulness, heroism are also mingle with civilians, picking up or When stress, adversity, or trauma strikes, apt descriptions, but not one of those leaving behind germs and microbes…” you still experience anger, grief, and pain, words by itself can explain the forma- German General Otto Liman von but you’re able to keep functioning — tion of a Jewish state only three years af- Sanders, who would command the both physically and psychologically.” ter World War II better than the Jewish Turkish-German forces in Palestine While the Mayo Clinic adds to its people’s “resiliency.” during World War I, reported on the definition that resilience also requires medical state of “poor or even non-ex- the ability to seek help, Israel has added ❚ Complacency and Resiliency isting hygiene, vermin infestations, and a new feature: the ability to offer help, in Palestine rampant sicknesses among the troops. take the offensive, improvise, muster The contradictory traits of resil- There were no bathing facilities in the human and financial resources, and de- iency and complacency were exhibited barracks; military hospitals were in an feat the adversity. during the near eradication of the Jews appalling state. A permeating stench Yes, those actions sound like they of Palestine in the early 20th century. and overwhelming dirt met him as he apply to battlefield emergencies. Indeed, They were ravaged by a locust plague, entered overcrowded hospital rooms. they have been applied to such military starvation, malaria, cholera, typhus, There was no separation between pa- purposes as developing the Arrow and expulsion, and the Ottoman Empire’s tients with physical injuries and those Iron Dome missile defense systems, in- forced conscription, cruelty, and perse- infected with diseases; men slept in the vesting in cyber defenses and offenses, cution that bordered on a repeat of the same beds or crowded on the floor.” designing the Merkava tank and its re- Armenian genocide. Epidemics were Von Sanders was faced with the active and active defenses, and more. spread by the deployment of disease- complacency and carelessness of the But the threat of and response to the carrying Turkish troops throughout the Ottoman Army. His suggestions to the invading coronavirus required the same Middle East, and the diseases struck the Ottoman military command to improve resilient and early responses in closing Jewish populations hard. In Jerusalem, the health crisis were “ignored, evaded, borders, quarantining likely carriers, es- the situation was so desperate that hun- or met with outright resistance from tablishing field hospitals, training staff, dreds of Jewish women, desperate for higher officers of the military,” accord- and employing the Mossad [Israel’s ex- food and care for their children, and ing to Prof. Schulze-Tanielian. ternal security service] to secure vital not knowing the fate of their husbands, Hemdah Ben-Yehudah, the wife of medical supplies. The government de- turned to prostitution and, as one his- the pioneering Hebrew scholar Eliezer ployed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) torian has written, “went to the wrong Ben-Yehudah, provided further details to close infected neighborhoods, create with German and Turkish troops.” on the situation in Jerusalem, in her ar- hostels for Covid-19 patients who did It can reasonably be argued that the ticle, “Jerusalem: Its Redemption and Fu- not require hospitalization, deliver sup- epidemics of 100 years ago were spread ture,” a 1918 volume of eyewitness essays: plies to elderly shut-ins, and even babysit by the movement of Turkish armies for the children of essential healthcare across the region. “Widespread epidem- Ten-thousand Jews left Jerusalem workers. Immediately, IDF and govern- ics consumed Ottoman soldiers and ci- in one week. The streets were filled ment-sponsored laboratories were redi- vilians alike during the Great War,” con- with the exiles who had no carriag- rected to design and build emergency tended Prof. Melanie Schulze-Tanielian es and conveyed their baggage on respirators and hospital robots for pa- of the University of Michigan. “The their own backs. Most of the houses tient care. Laboratories were reassigned fact that soldiers often had to march to were closed because the inhabitants to research possible vaccines. and from the front made it difficult for were dead, or deported, exiled, or in

28 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 LENNY BEN-DAVID: Resilience: Israel’s Reaction to the COVID-19 Epidemic

A Turkish military hospital in Magdabah Sinai, 1916. (Library of Congress) prison. Deserted were the streets. The demanded the privilege of fighting ❚ Afterword women kept house underground; but side by side with the English, in the How did the Jews of Eretz Yisrael there was little food to prepare. They conquest of their own country. Their recover and move forward after World had forgotten the appearance of a desire was granted. A battalion of War I, the Holocaust, the War of Inde- loaf of bread. The babies died for lack native Jews was immediately en- pendence, the Yom Kippur War, and all of milk. listed, and the [numbers of] recruits the other crises such as the coronavirus increased. pandemic? I suggest a trait of resilience Some 3,000 orphans were wander- in their DNA or psyche. ing the streets of Jerusalem out of a com- Other Jewish units arrived from I once had a discussion on religion munity of 26,000 people, according to a overseas, including volunteer units to with I. L. (Si) Kenen, the founder of AIPAC writer, Chen Malul, of the National Li- the Jewish Brigades in the British Army and my mentor. Si was notoriously non- brary of Israel. as well as volunteer medical teams from religious.“I don’t believe in God,” he told me. Almost miraculously, according to groups such as Hadassah and the Amer- “What do you believe in?” I asked. Mrs. Ben-Yehuda, the British Army ar- ican Joint Distribution Committee. Si responded, “I believe in the eter- rived in Jerusalem on Chanukah Eve, But the resilience of the Jewish com- nity of Israel.” 1917. She related the resiliency that she munity was not found in other commu- “Si, You’re no less religious than I,” I witnessed in Jerusalem’s remaining nities in Palestine recovering from dis- answered. “We just call it different things.” population: ease and war. Today, I call it resiliency. According to researcher Ella Aya- ...an impulse of life after the reign lon of Tel Aviv University, who wrote LENNY BEN-DAVID served as Deputy of death. The first to obey this over- on the crisis of Jewish orphans after Chief of Mission at the Embassy of Israel whelming impulse were Jewish World War I, “The [Jewish] Palestine in Washington. He is the author of Amer- youths, the remnant that had been Orphan Committee followed a progres- ican Interests in the Holy Land Revealed concealed hidden like the seed in the sive agenda and aspired to place the in Early Photographs. He is currently earth and had thus escaped the gen- children under its care with families, writing Secrets of World War I in the Holy eral persecution. These young men and not in an orphanage.” Land Revealed in Early Photographs.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 29 COVID-19 Has Not Eased Threats to Israel by BG YOSSI KUPERWASSER, IDF (Res.)

espite the potential for change Iran’s military presence in Syria. This al- faced with growing tensions with Iran that the novel coronavirus pan- lowed their opponents in these arenas, and its proxies along its northern bor- demic creates, it seems that including Israel in Syria, to put more pres- ders with Lebanon and Syria, either as a Dmost players in the Middle East sure on Iran and its surrogates. In Iraq, the consequence of the growing need to act view it as just an imposed break. Their new prime minister seems to somewhat against Iran’s efforts to strengthen its official reports assert only limited dam- limit Iran’s control of the government and capabilities there or as a response to Ira- age so far, regardless of the continuing in Lebanon anti-Hezbollah demonstra- nian provocation. Such provocation may spread of the disease. Pandemic or no, tions keep their momentum. also take the form of cyber-attacks, like they keep promoting their interests. But the mounting pressure has not the attempt to harm several Israeli water Tensions between rival camps in the forced Iran to change its goals and the supply systems in April 2020. This comes region and their attitudes toward Israel strategy it plans to achieve them. It con- in addition to Hezbollah’s arsenal of have not changed and are not expected tinues its effort to gain hegemony in the more than 100,000 rockets, drones, and to change. The main clash is between Middle East and beyond and export its other advanced weaponry, and its inten- the pragmatic Sunni camp and the three messianic radical version of Islam, and it tion to carry out an offensive maneuver radical elements–Muslim Brotherhood is committed to confronting the U.S. and inside Israel. Hezbollah’s intentions have supporters in Turkey, Qatar, and the annihilating Israel. In order to promote become more concrete, despite Israel de- Gaza Strip; the Iran-led axis; and Islamic its strategy, Iran is arming itself to the stroying its assault tunnels, based on the State followers. These factions continue teeth with advanced missiles of all ranges, experience its activists gained from fight- to fight each other in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, drones, and naval capabilities. It is moving ing in Syria and on a show of feasibility and Libya, with some involvement of the forward with its military nuclear project, by cutting the security fence in three dif- major foreign powers. Israel is aligned ignoring all its commitments under the ferent locations simultaneously in April. with the pragmatists and is considered Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) The possibility of entering negotia- an enemy by most radicals. and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac- tions with the U.S. on a new nuclear agree- The country in the region most affect- tion (the JCPOA, or “Iran deal”), keeps ment from the point of weakness in which ed thus far is Iran. Many in Iran believe trying to strengthen its ability to operate the regime currently finds itself is not on that the dangerous reality of the coronavi- against Israel from Syria, and to provide the agenda at this point. The regime will rus is the result of the conduct of the cleri- Hezbollah in Lebanon with precise guided do its best to wait until after the American cal regime. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader missiles. Iran is also trying to strengthen presidential elections, hoping for former Ali Khamenei tried, with very limited its ability to confront the U.S. by improv- Vice President Joe Biden to win and reen- success, to turn the battle against the dis- ing its relations with Venezuela and China. ter the JCPOA. That way, Iran would again ease into a tool to coalesce public support have a safe path toward a large arsenal of and solidarity behind him. He blamed the ❚ The End of the Embargo? nuclear weapons and long-range missiles United States for his government’s short- As bad as relations have been between on which to mount them. Yet if it becomes comings and presented Tehran’s support the U.S. and Iran, they may become even clear to the regime that all other avenues of for terrorist elements such as Hamas (Pal- more strained in the coming months, es- action have failed and public anger threat- estinian Islamic Resistance Movement) as pecially if Washington manages to delay ens to explode, it may have no choice but to useful in the fight against the pandemic. the expiration in October 2020 of the consider even the negotiation option. The ongoing American “maximum JCPOA clause preventing Iran from buy- pressure campaign” has created economic ing and exporting weapons. Such a step ❚ Closer to Home difficulties for the mullahs’ regime, forced within a month of the U.S. elections, es- The Palestinian Authority (PA) and it to cut expenditures slightly on their pecially if it is performed by a snapback the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip have proxies in Lebanon and Iraq, and make of the UN sanctions on Iran, may cause thus far handled the disease with great some changes in the characteristics of escalation. In this context Israel may be success and prevented its spread in the

30 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 YOSSI KUPERWASSER: COVID-19 Has Not Eased Threats to Israel

Police check point at Passover evening due to Israeli government regulation in Haifa, Israel. (Photo: StockStudio Aerials) territories they control. Both have en- Preparation for the extension of directly and indirectly. joyed vast Israeli support in their strug- sovereignty has brought the Palestin- The tension between the need to in- gle against Covid-19 and its economic ian issue back to the Arab agenda, but vest in the military or in health care to repercussions. Some terror attacks were throughout the coronavirus crisis, rela- guarantee national security and the in- conducted but in general relative calm tions between Israel and the pragmatic ternational economic crisis may put pres- has prevailed. In spite of generous Is- Arab states have kept improving. The sure on the military budget and affect raeli assistance (including a loan of $230 first direct flights from the UAE to Is- Israel’s ability to implement long-term million), the PA and Hamas have kept rael, the first Israeli flight to Argentina military buildup plans. spreading libels against Israel and gone over Sudan, and the new attitude toward On the other hand, the Covid-19 on with their legal and political activities Israel expressed on social media and in crisis serves also as an opportunity for against it, including their complaint at a Saudi Arabian Ramadan television se- further improving the relations between the International Criminal Court (ICC). ries attest to this reality. Israel and its neighbors, based – among In the meantime, Israel has man- other components – on Israel’s ability aged at long last to form a unity govern- ❚ Responding to the Crisis to assist them in the medical domain. If ment that is determined to extend its sov- The enormous economic damage and Israel manages to contribute to the ad- ereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria the blow to the idea of globalization as an vancement of responses to the virus and and the Jordan valley in accordance with organizing principle of the international to thereby expedite its contribution as a the U.S. peace plan if the administration system has deepened the responsibility of center of scientific research to the secu- agrees to the details. The Palestinians each country to deal with the virus and rity of the entire world it may ease the are focusing their efforts on pressuring later with the need for economic revival normalization of its relations with its Israel and the U.S. to refrain from imple- by itself. It likely will take time, but in the Arab neighbors. menting this step and on preparation for meantime the situation proved again how an escalation including diplomatic, legal deceptive the term “the Arab world” can BG YOSSI KUPERWASSER, IDF (Res.) and economic measures, riots and terror be. The economic recession, the potential is director of the Project on Regional attacks, including launching rockets if for growing tension between the U.S. and Middle East Developments at the Jeru- Israel goes ahead. Palestinian moves are China and the impact of the results of the salem Center for Public Affairs and the supposed to be accompanied by Jorda- U.S. elections may affect the stability of former head of the IDF Military Intel- nian steps and a negative reaction from some of the states of the region and affect ligence Research Division and director the European community. Israel’s national security interests both general of the Strategic Affairs Ministry.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 31 Egypt’s Struggle to Coexist with COVID-19 by OFIR WINTER and TZVI LEV

he crisis caused by the corona- It’s important to highlight the ques- average of 1.8. The shortage of medical virus presents Egypt with a slew tions regarding the veracity of Egypt’s personnel compounds the difficulty of of challenges: its large densely coronavirus data. The international preventing contagion in a population of Tpacked population; an economy media has cited estimates that the ac- 100 million people living in overcrowd- exposed to global shockwaves; and a tual extent of COVID-19 is far higher ed conditions. fragile health system. With the num- than reported, while Egypt’s Minister of As the battle against the worldwide ber of infections skyrocketing, the pan- Higher Education, Khaled Abdel Ghaf- pandemic contintues doctors and med- demic might exacerbate Egypt’s finan- far, estimated in early June that the true ical staff are protesting the dangerous cial struggles and endanger its political number may be as high as 117,000 CO- conditions they are forced to face as a stability. Those most vulnerable to the VID-19 cases. While the official mes- result of an insufficient supply of pro- virus’ economic effects are the millions sage from Egypt is that the outbreak is tective gear. Hundreds of medical staff of day laborers who lack social benefits still under control, other reports claim have already been infected, with dozens and are likely to slide rapidly into un- that the Egyptian health system is no of deaths, while doctors have taken to employment and poverty. As such, the longer able to cope with the large extra social media to complain of Egypt’s “in- benchmark for the Egyptian govern- burden and may find itself in danger of action and negligence to protect them.” ment in dealing with the crisis is its total collapse. Particularly enraging to doctors is the ability to formulate a plan that balances Ahmed al-Sobky, who heads the failure to provide treatment facilities between the need for social distancing Egyptian General Authority for Health to infected medical personnel, and the to curb infection and the economic con- Care, announced in the beginning of Health Ministry’s refusal to test medi- straints that demand a return to routine May that hospitals had reached maxi- cal staff who had been in contact with as quickly as possible. Despite three months of economic shutdown and so- cial distancing restrictions, Egypt does Even in normal times, hospitals suffer from a lack of not appear to be succeeding in its battle intensive care beds and ventilators, and substandard against the coronavirus. The number of patients is rising rapidly, surpassing sanitary conditions make it difficult to protect medical 50,000 infected and 2,000 total fatalities staff and patients from the spread of the virus. by the end of June. A major challenge facing Egyptian authorities is the relatively low rate of testing; by the beginning of May only mum capacity, with the Egyptian Medi- confirmed cases. While promising to about 105,000 had been tested, at a rate cal Syndicate warning of “a catastrophe address the issue, Egypt’s Health Min- of about 2,000 per day. According to the affecting the entire country” calling for istry disputes the Syndicate’s numbers World Health Organization (WHO), a full lockdown. Even in normal times, regarding the medical staff who have Egypt had a stockpile of about 200,000 hospitals suffer from a lack of intensive been infected. tests at the beginning of the crisis but care beds and ventilators, and substan- The Egyptian Ministry of Health has used half of its total capacity and is dard sanitary conditions make it diffi- has established a situation room to coor- reportedly testing a maximum of only cult to protect medical staff and patients dinate the response to the outbreak along 30,000 people a week. Egypt’s younger from the spread of the virus. Currently, with a call center to provide citizens population works in its favor, with only Egypt has only 1.2 doctors for every with information. Three hundred sev- 4.6 million of its approximately 100 mil- 1,000 people, significantly fewer than enty-six hospitals throughout the coun- lion citizens over the age of 65. the OECD average of 3.4 and the global try, with over 90,000 beds, have been

32 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 OFIR WINTER and TZVI LEV: Struggle to Coexist with COVID-19 Egypt’s June) for domestic tourism, along with courts, real estate registries, shortening curfews, and the resumption of flights. The first phase includes heavy restric- tions on hotels and other businesses and is slated to continue until the coun- try’s total number of coronavirus cases drops for two consecutive weeks. The second phase would last for 28 days be- fore transitioning into the final stage that would remain in place until the WHO lowers the total risk level from COVID-19. Observers explain the discrepancy between Egypt’s push to remove restric- tions and the negative public health situa- tions as a desire to mitigate the economic fallout. The Health Ministry has spoken of Egypt’s need to “coexist with the coro- navirus” and refused to recommend ex- designated for diagnosing and quaran- working from home, reduced crowd- tending the lockdown even as new cases tining coronavirus patients. In addition, ing on public transportation, bans on passed its self-declared peak of 500. Yet, 1,000 ambulances have been allocated gatherings, and closure of sports and the increasing infection numbers have and medical centers were equipped to youth clubs. The regulations initially led drawn harsh public and governmental receive thousands of cases. Meanwhile, to a 35-50 percent decrease in traffic in criticism on the Health Ministry, with hospital physicians have been afforded public places, reflecting both the partial calls to review the original plan. better employment terms, with their response by the public, and the govern- For the Egyptian government, the numbers boosted by retired doctors and ment’s decision to refrain from harsher pandemic presents a challenge but also medical lecturers and students. In an at- steps that the Egyptian economy would an opportunity to demonstrate lead- tempt to keep hospitals from being over- be unable to withstand. ership and control, and to prove the whelmed, the Health Ministry Authori- However, the public’s commitment necessity of state authorities as the re- ties launched an effort promoting local to the draconian measures appears to be sponsible address during a crisis. Lead- manufacture of ventilators to add to the rapidly fading. Reports speak of the pub- ing the operation is the military, which existing 5,000. Meanwhile, patients in lic openly flouting the health guidelines, has embarked on a campaign under the mild condition are being diverted from with hundreds of thousands of people name: “The Egyptian Armed Forces – hospitals and sent to alternative facilities remaining outside after curfew during the Protection and Support,” through requisitioned for medical purposes or to the month of Ramadan. According to which they perform a range of tasks, their homes. Egyptian officials, the disregard for so- including: monitoring and maintain- cial distancing lies behind the country’s ing border security, disinfecting roads ❚ Partial Social Distancing rapid infection rate, pointing to data and public buildings, operating mili- Starting in mid-March, Egypt’s showing just an 11 percent decrease in tary hospitals, assisting the police in strategy to reduce contagion revolved frequenting of markets. maintaining public order and enforcing around partial social distancing. Mea- Despite the consistent rise in infec- social distancing, preparing emergency sures implemented included a nighttime tion rates and fatalities, the Egyptian stocks of food, and producing and sup- curfew, shuttering entertainment cen- government gradually began to roll plying protective masks for free dis- ters and restaurants, a ban on smoking back some of the lockdown restrictions tribution to the population. While the hookahs in public areas, the suspension following the Eid al-Fitr festival. In Health Ministry and the military stand of flights, quarantine of those return- mid-May, the Health Ministry unveiled at the forefront of the battlefield against ing from overseas, closure of schools its plan to return the country to nor- the pandemic, President Abd al-Fattah and universities, a ban on prayers in mal in three phases over 90 days. The el-Sisi appears to be attempting to keep mosques and churches, restrictions on new measures include permitting ho- a safe distance from the daily manage- governmental activity, promotion of tels to operate at 25% capacity (50% by ment of the crisis.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 33 ❚ Economic Threat people to sink deeper into extreme pov- will be funded by postponing the launch The pandemic has struck at the eco- erty and increase the overall poverty rate of national projects, including the move nomic progress achieved by Egypt in to 44.4 percent. In 2020, according to the of government offices to the new admin- recent years, reflected in encouraging International Monetary Fund, growth in istrative capital. In addition, government growth rates and lower unemployment Egypt will drop to 2 percent (down from ministers and members of parliament are and inflation. Specifically, the coronavi- the expected 5.7). being asked to donate part of their salary rus has now weakened major pillars of The most vulnerable sector is the to the national fund, “Tahya Misr.” the economy. Millions of Egyptians who 12-14 million irregular day laborers, who Finally, Egypt appealed to the Inter- work abroad (mostly in the Gulf states) lack permanent employment and so- national Monetary Fund (IMF), which remitted some $29 billion to Egypt in cial benefits. Most of them belong to the approved a $2.8 billion loan in early May 2019, but many have been fired or had middle to lower class, and as their distress and a one-year $5.2 billion fianancing their wages cut and tens of thousands mounts, there will be greater potential for package in early June to help the country have already returned to their home social unrest and protests. In order to im- alleviate the economic impact of the pan- country; the tourism industry has also prove their situation, the government has demic. The Bank of Egypt also continued been particularly hard hit, having only authorized a special grant of 500 EGP per its policy of quantitative easing, cutting recently recovered from the turmoil of month for three months, but it will be dif- interest rates by 3 percent and selling al- the last decade. The sector, which saw ficult to bear such a burden beyond that. most $100 billion in debt. profits of $12.4 billion, accounted for about 15 percent of GDP, while provid- ing some four million jobs (12.6 percent of the workforce). The aviation industry A major question is the potential impact the economic lost 2.5 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP) downturn will have on Egypt’s political stability. in March alone; traffic along the Suez Canal plummeted due to the recession in global trade and the plunge in global oil prices, and forced Egypt to announce large discounts on transit fees. Another Charity organizations are also gearing up ❚ Conclusion point of concern is Egypt’s plummet- to provide help for those struggling, while In Egypt, even more so than in ing foreign currency reserves, which fell food chains are selling basic necessities at affluent Western nations, economic from $45 billion in February to $37 bil- subsidized prices. In a sign of the heavy considerations play a vital role in any lion two months later, with some ratings economic toll caused by the pandemic, plans for a return to routine. The choice agencies predicting that it may reach $31 the Egyptian Food Bank announced that is between difficult alternatives: busi- billion by the end of the year. 15 million families have requested assis- ness people are calling for a renewal A major question is the potential im- tance, a 300 percent increase from previ- of economic activity even at the cost of pact the economic downturn will have ous years. The cost of living is expected higher morbidity rates in order to avert on Egypt’s political stability. On the one to rise even more, increasing the burden economic collapse in the form of bank- hand, recent economic reforms have in- on working-class Egyptians. In April, ruptcies, mass hunger, and anarchy; creased Egypt’s flexibility in respond- the IMF predicted that consumer prices medical experts warn that containing ing to the health crisis and stabilized its would rise 5.9 percent by next January the spread of the virus mandates addi- macroeconomic position. On the other and 8.2 percent in 2021. tional economic victims, and perhaps hand, the reforms included the elimina- The Egyptian government has allo- even a complete lockdown for a limited tion of subsidies and thus increased the cated 100 billion EGP (about $6.4 billion) period. At present, although there is no poverty rate to 32.5 percent, and intensi- to deal with the crisis, and has invested sign that the infection curve is flatten- fied the vulnerability of the middle to low 20 billion EGP to stem the collapse of ing, the government is prioritizing re- socioeconomic class. According to Inter- the stock exchange. Some of these moves sumption of economic activity under national Food Policy Research Institute are designed to assist businesspeople and increased enforcement of the required estimates, the crisis will cause a reduction companies in the private sector, and in- health safety measures. in GDP of 0.7-0.8 percent each month, clude reduction of interest rates and elimi- and cut average household income by nation of bank commissions, relief on tax- OFIR WINTER, Ph,D., is a re- about 10 percent. The Egyptian Center for ation and debt repayments, a reduction in search fellow at the Institute for Economic Studies estimates that the cri- the price of electricity and gas for industry, National Security Studies (INSS). sis will cause 12 percent of already-poor and support for hotels. Part of the budget TZVI LEV is an intern at the INSS.

34 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 China’s Censorship, Propaganda & Disinformation by DANIEL BLUMENTHAL and LINDA ZHANG

isinformation, censorship, and Film, and Television (SARFT) – SARFT the idea that data is subject to the laws of propaganda are pillars of the Chi- controls the content on radio, film, and the country where it was collected. nese Communist Party’s grand TV aired in China; The PRC has proposed an Interna- Dstrategy. CCP General-Secretary 3. Ministry for Information Industry tional Code of Conduct on Information Xi Jinping has both added ballast to these (MII) – MII regulates the Chinese tele- Security (with the support of the Russian capabilities as well as relied upon them communication, software industries, and Federation) to the United Nations that even more to further his aims. Most re- Internet related services; would put states in control of the Inter- cently, the Chinese Communist Party 4. State Council Information Office net. These changes would not only signif- response to the COVID-19 pandemic (SCIO) – SCIO promotes Chinese media icantly enhance the effectiveness of PRC shows us that disinformation, censor- to a global audience and is also respon- control of the Internet, but also change ship, and propaganda are “features,” not sible for restricting news that is posted on the international rules governing it. “bugs,” of the CCP’s system of govern- the Internet; ment. A war on the truth is a central pil- 5. Central Propaganda Department ❚ CCP and the Media lar of the CCP’s strategy for survival. (CPD) – CPD is the Party organ that Chinese media portray specific criti- works with GAPP and SARFT to moni- cisms the West has made against China, ❚ The Bureaucracy tor content; such as on human rights issues, as being In February 2016 on a tour of Chi- 6. Ministry of Public Security (MPS) “anti-China,” as if a story about the par- nese media outlets, Xi announced “all the – MPS monitors and filters the Internet ty’s human rights abuses is an affront to work by the party’s media must reflect the and punishes and detains those who all Chinese people. Recently, the Chinese party’s will, safeguard the party’s author- speak out; propaganda machine has started ma- ity, and safeguard the party’s unity.” The 7. General Administration for Cus- nipulating Western sensibilities by call- job of Chinese media is not to inform the toms – Customs collects books, videos, ing any criticism of Chinese government public and search for the truth. Rather, it and other information that China does actions “racist” against all Chinese. The is to “report” stories favorable to Xi and not want inside its borders; and goal is clear: to shut down such criticism. the party and censor those that are not. 8. State Secrecy Bureau (SSB) – SSB Chinese media have long deliber- The CCP has constructed a massive enforces state secrecy laws, which are of- ately misrepresented events to attack propaganda and censorship apparatus: ten used to punish individuals who write the country’s perceived enemies. For ex- it considers the truth to be dangerous. undesirable content. ample, during the 2008 Olympic Torch It does not want its citizens to know the Relay, CCTV described all protestors extent of its corruption, its repression, its ❚ ‘Controlling’ the Internet in the West as “Tibetan separatists and mismanagement of the economy, and of There are two major Internet cen- members of other anti-China groups” crises such as the current virus, the bird sorship programs: The “Great Firewall” who “repeatedly assaulted” torchbear- flu in 1997 and SARS in 2003. The below and the “Golden Shield” program. Both ers. This was simply not true. Almost all sample of a few organizations tasked with rapidly censor internet content produced such protests were peaceful and joined by censorship and propaganda hints at how within the People’s Republic of China many different ethnic groups in the Unit- prominent a place these efforts hold in (PRC.) The PRC also seeks to assert new ed States and other countries. The cause China’s foreign and domestic policy: international legal prerogatives in the in- of religious and cultural freedom in Tibet 1. The General Administration of formation domain, such as “internet sov- has long been championed in the West. Press and Publication (GAPP) – GAPP ereignty,” a concept that would give coun- More recently, China has accused drafts and enforces restraint regulations; tries the right to control their domestic the United States of “sinister intentions” 2. State Administration of Radio, internet space, and “data sovereignty,” after Congress passed the Hong Kong

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 35 Human Rights and Democracy Act of interference, harassment, or violence ownership rights, merchandising, and in- 2019. Xinhua state news agency pub- while attempting to report in China, and dividual player sponsorship. To be sure, lished a statement from the Hong Kong eight percent have reported manhandling the Chinese do not have absolute power in Liaison Office accusing Washington or use of physical force. Twenty-six percent disputes like this. The Chinese people love of supporting violence and instability. of respondents reported that Chinese gov- the “product,” as they do so many Ameri- The truth is that Congress cares about ernment officials have harassed, detained, can products, and the Chinese censorship the basic rights of Hong Kongers and questioned, or punished their sources. apparatus backed off eventually. But still about the CCP upholding its obligations. the episode shows the extent of China’s The CCP wants its people and targeted ❚ Going After American censorship efforts. Indeed, the lure of the groups around the world to think that Popular Culture China market is the most powerful weap- Hong Kong (like Taiwan) is simply an Not only does China target journal- on the Chinese have in their fight to stave internal Chinese issue and that America ists and media in its territory, but the re- off any criticism of the regime’s practices acts imperialistically and with an unre- gime also has started to influence pop cul- and abuses. The point was made; it is very lenting anti-Chinese bias. The Chinese government monitors, harasses, and bans Western journalists Fifty-seven percent of respondents of a Foreign who publish content portraying China in Correspondents’ Club of China survey reported… a “negative” light. Examples include: 1. China kicked three Wall Street interference, harassment, or violence… and eight Journal reporters out of the country after percent reported manhandling or use of physical force.. The Journal published an Op-Ed about China that spoke the truth about the risks China’s system of government poses ture abroad. Beijing knows that its people unlikely that NBA stars or management to the world; have great admiration for American will criticize China in the future. 2. China blocked access to The New sports and pop culture icons. It therefore Chinese censorship has also hit the York Times website after The Times pub- believes it must control with an extreme heart of American entertainment in Hol- lished an article on party official Wen Jia- intensity what such figures might say. Two lywood. Americans have likely noticed bao’s family wealth in 2012; examples highlight the level of Chinese the absence of Chinese villains or “bad 3. Bloomberg News self-censored interference: Basketball and Hollywood. guys” in American movies. No other an investigative report on the wealth of The case of the National Basketball country including our own is spared “Princeling” families to protect their Association (NBA) in China is one of negative portrayals in film or television. journalists (or their bottom line); and China using its market power to make Since China agreed to open its market to 4. The arrest of Jimmy Lai, the Americans curtail their free speech. It be- foreign films in 2012, Hollywood has had founder of Apple Daily and a Hong gan when Houston Rockets General Man- to make concessions to its Chinese cen- Kong media mogul, ostensibly for par- ager Daryl Morey tweeted an image that sors. Producers and directors must coor- ticipating in an illegal assembly during read, “Fight for freedom, stand with Hong dinate with the Chinese government or the 2017 anti-government protests. This Kong.” This was during Hong Kong’s dem- lose access to the Chinese market. Films was meant to silence him (he too had onstrations over its basic human rights. with Chinese characters portrayed poor- just written a critical Op-Ed in The Wall The Chinese response was fast and ly, such as Christopher Nolan’s “Dark Street Journal) and his own paper as furious: Chinese tech giant Tencent Knight,” are not even submitted for ap- well as punish him for supporting pro- and state broadcaster CCTV suspended proval in China. democracy movements. broadcasts of Rockets games, while other As the writer Martha Bayles has The CCP has always used access to sponsors suspended relations with the chronicled, China believes that films are China as a key point of leverage to shape team. Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta also a tool of the state and their content perceptions. For years before these ar- publicly rebuked his general manager. should align with the CCP’s ideology. The rests, China would blacklist scholars and All-Star James Harden apologized for forthcoming Top Gun: Maverick – “a se- analysts from entering the country if they Morey’s tweet. The NBA released a state- quel financed in part by the Chinese firm were deemed to be “anti-China.” The CCP ment in Mandarin expressing disap- Tencent—omitted the Japanese and Tai- also uses physical intimidation to enforce pointment in Morey. wanese flags from Tom Cruise’s jacket….” censorship. Fifty-seven percent of respon- Like many American businesses, According to Bayles, in addition to dents of a Foreign Correspondents’ Club the NBA is making billions of dollars in the many censorship and propaganda or- of China survey reported some form of the China market, on viewership, digital ganizations mentioned above, films now

36 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 DANIEL China’s BLUMENTHAL and LINDA Censorship, Propaganda ZHANG: and Disinformation coronavirus samples to be either trans- ferred to designated labs or destroyed. The laboratory that first sequenced the COVID-19 genome was closed for “recti- fication” on January 12, the day after the team published its genome sequence re- sults on open platforms. Finally, authorities are continuing their usual practice of shutting down any criticism or negative portrayals of the gov- ernment. Censors closed down WeChat groups and social media discourse, pun- ished individuals, and removed articles that portray the government response in a negative way. The Chinese government censored Fang Fang, an award-winning writer based in Wuhan, who blogged a Chinese President Xi Jinping (Photo: kremlin.ru) diary account of her experience during the lockdown. Her writing described also have to pass muster with the State because it has no choice after it leaves the deserted landscapes, overcrowding of Ethnic Affairs Commission, the Minis- European Union. Other themes include hospitals, mask shortages, and govern- try of Public Security, the State Bureau of the loss of sovereignty to America and eco- ment incompetence. The state-run press Religious Affairs, the Ministry of Educa- nomic dependency on the United States. criticized her diary as “biased and only tion, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry These themes come up in both Chinese exposes the dark side in Wuhan.” of Foreign Affairs, and numerous other and English-language articles and Op-Eds Not only did the CCP silence the bureaucratic entities. in media outlets such as China.com, Xin- truth, it also pushed false narratives China also has started to make hua, China Daily, and Global Times, and about an influenza epidemic in the Unit- blockbusters for its domestic market. are shared on social media. ed States, criticized the United States for Movies made for the China market are “[creating] chaos and [spreading] fear assertive in their portrayal of China as ❚ COVID-19 pandemic with travel restrictions,” and lied about brave and righteous and America as weak We know that COVID-19 is far hospital construction. Zhao Lijian, a Chi- and decadent. more widespread than it otherwise nese Foreign Ministry spokesman, pro- America’s pop culture is one of its would have been as a result of China’s moted a conspiracy theory that the U.S. competitive advantages, enjoyed by bil- censorship. We know that Li Wenliang, Army brought the coronavirus to Wu- lions across the globe. When repressed Xu Zhangrun, Chen Qiushi, Fang Bin, han. The United States wasn’t the only populations really begin to ask why and countless other doctors, journalists, country the CCP falsely accused of start- America is so dominant in entertain- and activists who spoke out and tried to ing the virus. A Weibo post claiming that ment, they find the answer to be its free- tell the truth about the seriousness of the the coronavirus was in Italy in late No- dom – its free markets, its innovative and virus and inept response were silenced, vember, before the outbreak in Wuhan, creative culture. If China can co-opt and arrested and intimidated. went viral and reached over 490 million silence cultural icons, people will lose The CCP also attempted to censor views as of March 24. The intent of this faith in the power of these ideas. critical early research on the virus. On disinformation was not necessarily to January 1, after labs returned the first make people believe in a particular story, ❚ Foreign Disinformation batches of genome sequence results to but to sow general discord around discus- A key effort of Chinese grand strat- health authorities, the Hubei Provincial sions about the origins of the virus. This egy is to break U.S. alliances. Chinese state Health Commission ordered at least one indicates an increasing sophistication in media consistently attacks American allies company to stop testing, stop releasing the CCP’s disinformation techniques. as being economically dependent on the test results, and destroy existing sam- United States and highlights fragility in ples of the coronavirus. Two days later, ❚ What to Do? the relationships. Japan is a frequent tar- China’s National Health Commission Strategic approaches to China’s mass get. China Daily has also described Britain ordered all institutions to stop publish- use of censorship, propaganda, and dis- as “currying favor” with the United States ing on the new coronavirus and ordered information can be broken up into two

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 37 categories: China’s targeting of its own countries we have deemed rivals or en- ❚ Conclusion people and China’s external efforts. There emies in our national security documents. For the CCP, the truth is danger- are offensive and defensive measures we Third, we should set up a center ous. The party cannot allow its citizens can take. Remember, the CCP relies upon for excellence in combatting disinfor- to know that it makes grievous mistakes lies to stay in power. mation in Taiwan. Taipei faced down that lead to sickness and death within First, the United States should sub- an onslaught during its past election. China, that freedom and democracy stantially ramp up its own Chinese-lan- Many countries, including our own, work in Taiwan and in the West, that guage efforts (we have the broadcasting can learn from it. And Taiwan is a Man- Hong Kongers are demanding their ba- institutions already) to tell the truth to darin-speaking country that knows sic freedoms, that the United States is a the Chinese people about how they are what messages work in Chinese and in force for good in the world. governed. The truth should be revealed Chinese culture. Beijing cannot admit any failures about public health, the environment, Fourth, congressional and adminis- of governance, from mismanagement of corruption, and injustice. We should tration leaders can do a better job in our the viral outbreaks to a starkly slowing place ourselves on the side of the Chi- own country explaining the nature of economy. The CCP has been struggling nese people and help them discover the Chinese human rights abuses and cen- for legitimacy and a raison d’etre since truth that could better their lives. Obvi- sorship. Pressure should be put on U.S. it began allowing markets to function ously, Xi’s regime will try to block all entertainment figures who bend to CCP (and thus undermined Maoism) and such efforts. But multimedia campaigns dictates – they will likely face a backlash certainly since its violent crackdown on in Chinese make their way into China. among American followers and custom- protestors in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Censorship is a cat and mouse game, and ers if the public is more informed about It now coerces its people to accept its le- the regime needs to spend ever-greater China’s abuses. gitimacy and needs to protect itself in a resources to stop its people from learning Fifth, Congress can continue to web of lies. And, since President Xi has the truth. When the United States Infor- help set industry standards and best also set very ambitious geopolitical goals mation Agency (USIA) operated, we had practices that guide social media com- for his country to rejuvenate and return to its “rightful” place as the Middle Kingdom, CCP propaganda targets the For the CCP, the truth is dangerous. The party United States. It does so by its influence cannot allow its citizens to know that it makes over movies in which the United States is portrayed as declining and decadent grievous mistakes. and in its media portrayal of America as greedy and overbearing. career paths for those who wanted to be panies in information sharing with each While the CCP has a vast appara- “information officers” or even “informa- other and with the private and public tus to control information, arguably its tion warriors.” We need that again. sectors. This should include disclosing most powerful tool is its market size. The State Department’s Global En- automated accounts, providing the loca- The economy may be slowing but the gagement Center (GEC) can fill this tional origin of content, and providing consumer market is still very large. gap if properly funded and staffed with users with more context when they see The CCP will threaten U.S. media and Mandarin-speakers. Such efforts should certain content. entertainment companies with loss of tell America’s story in Chinese. Public di- Sixth, the administration should be market and financing if they deviate plomacy together with multimedia cam- encouraged to accelerate and broaden from the CCP party line. We need to paigns should explain and persuade – we efforts to designate Chinese state con- break down and publicize as much as need to tell the story of why Americans trolled media companies as foreign possible the specific entities that propa- support basic democratic values in Hong agents who need to register as such, and gate the CCP’s ideological line and stop Kong and Taiwan and how we would do so to make sure that “journalists” work- treating Chinese “media” as anything in China as well. We need not be defensive ing for such entities are not credentialed but foreign agents. about our foreign policy. as journalists. Congress could help by Second, we should pass proposed publishing and disseminating easily di- DANIEL BLUMENTHAL, J.D., is Di- legislation enabling the United States to gestible information on China’s mass rector of Asian Studies and a Resident Fel- do a better job of highlighting the origin censorship and media control system. low, and LINDA ZHANG is a Research of political ads, particularly from foreign The American people should know ex- Assistant at the American Enterprise sources. We also should disclose the origin actly where their information on China Institute. This article is adapted from of content of social and other media from is coming from and who is paying for it. testimony before Congress in May 2020.

38 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 Lebanon: Hezbollah Takes Over Central Bank and Telecoms by HANIN GHADDAR

[Ed Note: The coronavirus pandemic has according to Reuters and other media Since then, Hezbollah has orches- provided an excuse for some governments outlets. Despite these measures, the cur- trated a public campaign against Sal- to do what they had long wanted to do. In rency continued its freefall, selling as ameh, accusing him of stealing money Lebanon, Beirut banned anti-corruption low as 4,000 pounds to the dollar—far and protecting corrupt political elites. demonstrations by thousands of young less than the fixed peg of 1,500 pounds Likewise, Prime Minister Hassan Diab Lebanese, including Shiites in the south. to the dollar that had been in place for publicly blamed Salameh for the deterio- The country’s leaders are looking for an decades. Apparently, money exchangers rating economic conditions. “There are excuse to seize control of additional sec- had been selling dollars at prices higher gaps in the central bank’s performance, tors and replace the financial system with than the one specified by the central strategies, clarity, and monetary policy, their own corrupt, cash-based economy.] bank. Reuters reported that several of and [its] losses have reached USD 7 bil- these dealers were arrested on April 27 lion this year,” he stated in an April 24 s Lebanese protestors return for violating the cap; in response, ex- speech, adding that the bank “is either to the streets, another conflict change firms decided to shut down until incapable, absent, or directly inciting is being waged in the back- the dealers were released. this dramatic depreciation.” Free Pa- Aground—a financial battle be- The clash is part of a wider war be- triotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil tween Hezbollah and Banque du Liban, tween Hezbollah, which supports the reportedly joined the chorus, blaming the country’s central bank. On April 30, parallel economy of exchangers, and Salameh for the loss of currency reserves the pro-Hezbollah cabinet announced Riad Salameh, the central bank gover- and urging the state to “correct” these that it would be seeking billions of dol- nor who supports the banking sector. mistakes. And according to Reuters, lars in assistance from the IMF as part The winning camp will likely gain full deputy Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem of a wider economic “rescue plan.” At control over Lebanon’s hard currency “criticised the central bank over the the same time, however, the group has and financial system. pound’s drop,” declaring that Salameh been attempting to establish full con- “was partly responsible” and that an “ap- trol over the country’s remaining hard ❚ Hezbollah’s Plan Unfolds propriate decision” must be made to put currency, using the financial crisis to The first signs of this struggle were the “country’s interest ahead of all else.” strengthen its parallel economy at a seen in early April when Hezbollah Both the anti-Salameh campaign time when Lebanese banks are suffer- tried to appoint some of its allies to key and the government’s new request for ing a serious currency shortage. financial posts: namely, four open vice an IMF bailout are richly ironic given governor positions at the central bank, that the pro-Hezbollah cabinet has done ❚ The Stakes and top spots on the Banking Control nothing to weed out corruption or im- For years now, many ordinary eco- Commission, which oversees the daily plement urgently needed reforms itself. nomic transactions in Lebanon have operations of private lenders. Hezbol- Even so, Hezbollah will likely double been conducted in U.S. dollars. Re- lah’s camp already holds the Finance down on its rhetoric against the banks cently, local banks stopped providing Ministry and Interior Ministry, so infil- as the poverty-stricken populace com- dollars to depositors after months of set- trating these banking institutions would mences another wave of mass protest. ting withdrawal limits; the central bank strengthen its financial position. Yet the then ordered lenders to allow withdraw- plan was disrupted when former prime ❚ What Does Hezbollah Need? als from foreign currency accounts in minister Saad Hariri—apparently un- The group is well aware that Sal- Lebanese pounds only. But to stop the der pressure from new U.S. ambassador ameh has been implementing the finan- pound’s slide on the parallel market, the Dorothy Shea—threatened to pull his cial policies of consecutive governments central bank set a cap of 3,200 pounds allies from parliament if the cabinet ap- since he was first appointed to head the to the dollar for money exchange firms, proved the appointments. central bank in 1993. In that capacity,

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 39 he has facilitated the transfer of private preparing a comprehensive state tele- people’s demands; reminding protestors bank funds to each of these governments communications strategy that aligns that they should hold the entire politi- and, by extension, to the corrupt po- with its goals. cal elite responsible for corruption, not litical elite they represent—a tactic that just the banks; and reminding the banks went largely unchallenged for years until ❚ Policy Recommendations that caving to Hezbollah’s demands will all of the depositors’ money was squan- Lebanon’s entire system, including force the international financial system dered. Hezbollah and its allies are part its banking sector, is in serious need of to cut them off. Lebanese banks have of this elite and share much of the blame, fundamental reforms, many of which generally done a good job of respecting despite their attempts to deflect it. would need to be implemented before— U.S. restrictions on barring Hezbollah- What the group wants now is to re- not after—the international community linked individuals and institutions from place the teetering financial and banking offers a proper bailout. Short of these accessing U.S. dollars. But they may be system with its own parallel system based reforms, true renovation will be impos- tempted to give in if the group contin- on a cash economy. That would enable He- sible unless the system collapses. ues its anti-bank rhetoric or resorts to zbollah to control all of the cash currently Even so, some useful measures can be violence as it has done in the past (e.g., in the hands of the Lebanese people, esti- adopted in the interim to contain Hezbol- detonating explosives in front of Blom mated at 6 billion U.S. dollars plus 7 billion lah’s financial takeover plans and inform Bank’s Beirut headquarters in 2016.) Lebanese pounds. It would also help the the narrative surrounding the latest wave • Build communication channels group become Lebanon’s main importer of protests. Hezbollah and its allies have with the street. U.S. and international of goods, mostly from Iran and Syria. been taking advantage of public anger to officials need to start talking to protes- Moreover, Hezbollah is well aware power their campaign against the banks, tors and political activists. When Leba- that the central bank controls substan- and this campaign needs to be exposed. non’s system eventually falls apart—as tial assets besides currency. The bank While maintaining pressure on the cen- now seems inevitable—a new political still owns two potentially lucrative com- tral bank is important, Lebanon’s corrupt class might take the fore. Hezbollah is panies (Middle East Airlines and Casino Du Liban) and vast amounts of land. It also controls the country’s foreign ex- change reserves, including the $13 bil- Lebanon’s entire system, including its banking sector, lion in gold stored at the Federal Reserve is in serious need of fundamental reforms... Bank of New York. The idea of selling this gold has been anathema in Lebanon for decades, but it has resurfaced amid the country’s currency crisis and loom- elite and Hezbollah’s allies should not be already assembling its own group of ac- ing default on $33 billion in foreign debt. allowed to avoid blame for the financial tivists to fill this void, so Washington If the central bank sells the gold, that crash. To strike this balance, the United and its allies would be wise to establish would obviously create enormous op- States and the wider international com- ties with alternative leaders, and sooner portunities to divert some of the money munity should take three crucial steps: rather than later. to Hezbollah and the wider elite. • Counter Hezbollah’s rhetoric The instinct among European gov- The telecom sector has been an- against the banks. This means exposing ernments will be to send financial as- other lucrative target for the group. Now its behind-the-scenes plans to replace sistance to Lebanon as soon as possible that Hezbollah controls the Ministry the banking sector and explaining why in order to maintain stability during the of Telecommunications, it has placed its parallel economy cannot solve Leba- coronavirus pandemic. Without serious management of the sector under direct non’s crisis. A strategic communication reforms, however, any such assistance ministry control, ousting the two private strategy would help in this regard, in- would quickly be engorged by Hezbollah companies (Alpha and Touch) that once cluding outreach to certain independent and the rest of the corruption machine. filled that role on the state’s behalf. An- Lebanese media outlets. For the Lebanese people who have just nual profits from this sector could total • Issue new sanctions against a cor- gone back into the streets despite the around $1 billion, making it a particu- rupt, high-profile Hezbollah politi- risks of COVID-19, political reform is larly valuable prize. Under the watch- cal ally. Targeting such a figure (e.g., clearly more important than stability. ful eye of Hezbollah official Hussein an official or businessperson affiliated Hajj Hassan, head of the Parliamentary with the Free Patriotic Movement or HANIN GHADDAR is the Friedmann Committee for Information and Com- Amal) would serve multiple purposes: Visiting Fellow in The Washington Insti- munications, the group is reportedly sending a message of support for the tute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.

40 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 “The President Needs Help” review by SHOSHANA BRYEN

admit it. I read Appendix II first, and and limited largely to its constitutional I’m pretty sure you will too. duties. FDR, helped along by the Great When the book is subtitled “Ri- Depression, had visions of government I valries in the White House from Tru- as an enormous and powerful force. His man to Trump” and the Appendix is vision has been realized in the growth of called “White House Nicknames,” you the Civil Service from 699,000 people in have to go there. You will be reward- 1940 to 1.8 million in 1960 and the ex- ed. Hamas, Yoda, Keyser Soze, Nurse traordinary growth in spending, aided Ratched, Fat Kraut, and GK (for Grassy by the 1913 income tax and augmented Knoll) all make an appearance. Cousin by payroll taxes beginning in 1935. Cheap, the Garbage Man, Huckleberry Growth in the White House staff, Capone, and Meatball Mind, too. with its concomitant growth in the (self?) But so much for cheap laughs. importance of that staff, began incremen- Fight House, by presidential histo- tally – as growth in Washington always rian, analyst and bestselling author Tevi does. In 1936, the Brownlow Committee Troy, is a serious – OK, mostly serious on Administrative Management was es- – consideration of how presidents have tablished to help FDR deal with the grow- managed their staffs and staff rivalries ing administrative needs engendered by since the Roosevelt administration. the New Deal. In 1937, the committee Troy has extensive White House concluded, “the President needs help,” experience, having served in several suggesting six – just six – executive as- high-level positions, culminating in a sistants who would “remain in the back- stint as Deputy Assistant and then Act- ground, issue no orders, make no deci- ing Assistant to the President for Do- sions (and) emit no public statements.” Fight House mestic Policy. Experience is good, but They would be, according to the commit- what Troy really brings to the table is a tee, “possessed of high competence” and by Tevi Troy readable perspective on the presidency. a “passion for anonymity.” With a Ph.D. in American Civilization, Anyone who knows anything about his 2013 book What Jefferson Read, Ike government knows that when the ideal- Watched and Obama Tweeted: 200 Years istic picture met the reality of Washing- of Popular Culture in the White House ton egos, presidential and otherwise, it was a hit – but President Trump’s use was doomed. The While House staff has of twitter may require a sequel. Shall grown exponentially since the 1930s and We Wake the President was reviewed acquired more prestige, more responsi- in inFOCUS in 2016, and received a bility, and ever more ego. This makes the new round of publicity in the current nature of the President and his (so far, pandemic – what would Woodrow Wil- only his) willingness to tolerate or even son have done? Lincoln? George W? foster dissent and argument within the Wouldn’t you like to know? Troy is an White House staff and between the staff author who gets inside his subjects and and the cabinet secretaries a determi- makes them accessible to those of us nant of the success of his policies. who don’t and won’t have access. Some Presidents, starting with FDR, It is safe to say that no one today encouraged a variety of voices. But Har- has an adult recollection of the period ry Truman, upon arriving in the Oval before World War II, the last time in Office, was horrified by the lack of colle- which the federal government was small giality among staff members. He forbade

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 41 infighting. Troy cites historian Alonzo the feud between Secretary of State John Attorney General Nicholas Katzenbach Hamby, “However forced the cordiality Foster Dulles and Special Assistant to the wrote, “[Johnson] occasionally acted in may have been between some persons, President for Disarmament Harold Stas- an almost childish manner when news they all maintained it in their dealings sen was a classic case of a cabinet secre- he had been planning to announce with each other – or found themselves tary seeing a White House staff member leaked out.” leaving.” At least if they did it in front as an impediment to his own rise. Leaking is a subject unto itself and it of Truman. leaks across the chapters. The point was ❚ The Roaring Sixties always to enhance one’s own reputation ❚ Clifford, Marshall, and Israel What readers may remember as and to make one’s nemesis look bad. But Truman did stoke one rivalry – that Camelot in 1960 was actually the be- for decades it was, relatively, a gentleman’s between Clark Clifford and Secretary of ginning of serious change in Washing- game; now it is murder – Rowland Evans State George Marshall. In advance of the ton – the Civil Service had more than and Robert Novak, the most-read colum- declaration of the independence of Israel doubled since 1940. And Kennedy was nists in town, were part of Washington in 1948, Truman faced pressure on both a sweeping change from both the Tru- society, not assassins. The transformation sides of the recognition issue. He called on man and Eisenhower management in the book, as in Washington, is alarm- ing; Troy makes it scary/fascinating.

... for decades [leaking] was, relatively, a gentleman’s ❚ Reagan and Beyond game; now it is murder – Rowland Evans and Robert There is a recurring issue with fam- ily as well. Nancy Reagan wasn’t staff, as Novak, the most-read columnists in town, were part Bobby Kennedy was, but her clear au- of Washington society, not assassins. thority in the White House was another example of what happens when family has to be accounted for. Maneuvering around family, or with family around Clifford to present the arguments in favor styles, encouraging differences in some others, is a whole subset of politics. JFK of recognition, Marshall the arguments areas, and deliberately bringing in staff not only couldn’t ignore Bobby – he against. Israel won. Marshall was beyond that did NOT have that “passion for made him a cabinet secretary. Reagan a sore loser, saying “’If the president were anonymity” that the Brownlow Com- not only couldn’t ignore his wife – he to follow Mr. Clifford’s advice and if in mittee recommended. Feuding was in- didn’t want to. Jimmy Carter took Rose- the elections I were to vote, I would vote evitable. Robert F. Kennedy vs. Lyndon lyn very seriously. Bill and Hillary. against the president.’ As Clifford recalled, Johnson is legendary. Personal – New Somewhere in the Reagan admin- Marshall’s disloyalty to the president ‘was England royalty vs. Texas cowboy – and istration, and certainly in the succeed- so shocking that it just kind of lay there political – New England liberal vs. Texas ing administrations, the book becomes for fifteen or twenty seconds and nobody (relative) conservative – it lasted into the more personal. Readers will remember moved.’” Clifford later wrote about Mar- Johnson administration. On the other those better than FDR, HST, Ike, et. al. shall, “Not only did he never speak to me hand, Kennedy’s “Irish Mafia” and the And when you remember them, you again after that meeting, but, according “Intellectuals,” contrary to expectation, also remember the personalities. You re- to his official biographer, he never again did not feud. Harvard historian Arthur member who you liked and why or dis- mentioned my name.” Schlesinger, Jr. and Theodore Sorenson, liked and why. But Truman revered Marshall and however, did – and each wrote a book in James Baker was a master leaker. so he stayed. 1965 about their experiences. Novak, wrote, “Nobody in my long ex- It was during the Truman admin- The descriptions of Lyndon John- perience was more skillful in manipulat- istration that the line between cabinet son could easily be mistaken for those of ing reporters than Baker, who devoted officials and White House staff began to Donald Trump and Johnson’s use of the the equivalent of one full working day blur – proximity to the President having telephone foreshadows Trump’s twitter. each week to massaging the important a lot to do with that. Both are described as prodigious work- news media.” “Massaging” means leak- Eisenhower liked military structure ers and hard drivers, and both exhibited ing. Michael Deaver was trusted by both and delegating authority to the cabinet. a need to have others in company. Ac- Ronald and Nancy Reagan, an unassail- He was the first president with a Chief of cording to historian Doris Kearns God- able position – even Baker worked to be Staff and the first with a National Secu- win. “Johnson commanded, forbade, in- on his buddy list – and they were both rity Advisor. While he prized amicability, sisted, swaggered, and swore.” Johnson’s determined to get rid of Secretary of

42 inFOCUS | Summer 2020 Book Review FIGHT HOUSE: unraveling of the administration. Troy notes, “Political crises can themselves serve as a potent way to resolve the nag- ging problem of internal White House dissention.” George W. Bush had an ideologically cohesive staff and, as time went on, the domestic side ran smoothly. While there was an unheard of level of acceptance by the American public of Bush’s response to the attacks of 9-11, the administration’s Iraq policy brought people with decades of experience in Washington nearly to blows: Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, and others leaked and fought, fought and leaked. “No Drama Obama” had a rift over the lack of senior female staff in the White House, a Valerie Jarrett-vs- everyone rift, and a generational di- vide that pitted Ben Rhodes against more senior people, plus the profanity of Rahm Emanuel. The administration was, however, in comparison to others, largely quiet and ideologically cohesive. Revelations in 2020 over the misuse of intelligence, FISA warrants, surveil- lance, leaks, and other dodges to nega- tively affect the Trump administration might have, as happened in the Clinton administration, kept staffers pulling in the same direction – the final fallout re- mains to be seen. President Trump appears only in the conclusion, the timing of publication making a more in-depth consideration impossible. However, it is a very good idea to read Fight House to remind your- self that every modern White House has President John F. Kennedy speaks in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington during his State of the Union report to a joint session of Congress with Vice President Lyndon seen backbiting, self-promoting, ego, Johnson sitting behind him in 1963. leaking even some out and out fabrica- tions. Until recently, however, outsiders State Al Haig, further cementing their deflected them, often suggesting. “Okay, looking in simply didn’t have social me- relationship. Ed Meese and Donald you fellas work it out.” Sometimes they dia and an ideological press to magnify Regan, David Gergen, Peggy Noonan, did; sometimes they didn’t. the disagreements. Larry Speakes, and David Stockman all The George H.W. Bush administra- Fight House gives us an essential edged around, looking for advantage. tion was described as “the third Reagan piece of Washington history and some Reagan himself is described as term,” and Bill Clinton’s as “semi-con- pretty good laughs. “amiable and agreeable… but he also trolled chaos.” The impeachment trial had well-formed ideological principles was a motivating factor in the second SHOSHANA BRYEN is the editor of and knew what he wanted.” Loath to Clinton term, subsuming political dis- inFOCUS Quarterly and Senior Di- involve himself in staff arguments, he agreements in an effort to prevent the rector of the Jewish Policy Center.

COVID-19: The More Things Change | inFOCUS 43 50 F Street NW, Suite 100 Washington, DC 20001

❚ A Final Thought ...

Federalism❚ A Final Thought ... Emerges Just in Time tkFederalism is how states and municipalities exercise and Mardi Gras. Ohio canceled a major festival before the their authority separate from the federal government. For first case appeared. Different strokes. decades,tk liberals have sought more federal power over states In the reopening phase, governors in a swath of states (abortion, marriage, health insurance, and bathrooms) while from the Dakotas to Texas view their needs as different from conservatives have argued for less (school choice, Medicaid). the governors in the hard-hit northeast who have banded to- In 2017, President Trump withdrew the United States gether with their own plan. The governor of Nevada doesn’t from the UN-sponsored Paris Climate Accord. Irritated, a want to be ruled by the needs of the governor of New York. dozen American states and more than 200 cities committed And so, the Electoral College — the needs and votes of to maintaining the principles and goals of the pact. Certain the people of New York and California can’t swamp the votes states made certain investments and worked with various of the people of Delaware and Oklahoma. Montana has a say companies; Washington didn’t interfere. Presto – federalism. and so does Maine. Every state — as a state — is equal, and it Which brings us to 2020, COVID-19 and the Elector- is 50 states that make up the republic we cherish. al College. States, jealous of their power and prerogatives Much will come from the pandemic. Most useful would when it suits, have been furious over what some governors be a better understanding of the role of Washington and of call federal inaction on COVID-19. But each state also has a the states in managing the welfare of the American people in department of public health, a director of that department, a crisis — whether that crisis is state-wide or national — and and staff. Each is presumed to have a plan for emergencies, governors stepping up to follow through. including pandemics. Schools, parks, and beauty salons are not handled in Washington. Activating the state National – Shoshana Bryen Guard is, as its name suggests, a state prerogative. Senior Director, Jewish Policy Center And the conversation isn’t just between the states and Washington, it is among the 50 states. In February, New York City and New Orleans encour- aged their people to go out and mingle for Lunar New Year