UNTERNEHMEN BILANZ DUNKELN DONALD TRUMP Wird Die Trump Ära Wird Die Für Weltwirtschaft Und

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UNTERNEHMEN BILANZ DUNKELN DONALD TRUMP Wird Die Trump Ära Wird Die Für Weltwirtschaft Und UNTERNEHMEN TAPPEN IM DUNKELN DONALD TRUMP Der erste Schock hat sich gelegt. Doch die Unsicherheit bleibt: Wie schlimm wird die Ära Trump für die Weltwirtschaft und die Schweiz wirklich? von MARC KOWALSKY, HOLGER ALICH, MAREN MEYER und LEO MÜLLER Foto: Editorial 360˚ 26 BILANZ 23 | 2016 STRESSTEST FÜR LADY LIBERTY Die Fackelträgerin für Freiheit und Offenheit blickt in eine düstere Zukunft. Foto: Editorial 360˚ 23 | 2016 BILANZ 27 UNTERNEHMEN TRUMP-SCHOCK NOTOWN Aus Motown ist eine Geisterstadt ge- worden: Der Verfall der einstigen Auto- mobilhochburg Detroit steht für den Niedergang der US-Industrie. Trump will sie neu beleben. m Mitternacht ging das für die Schweiz? Zwar ist ein Regie- ohne die Hilfe seiner Partei errang, ist der Daniel Borel in sei- rungswechsel immer mit einem gewissen Fall besonders. «Wir wissen nicht, was nem Haus in Apples Grad an Ungewissheit verbunden, beson- auf uns zukommt», sagt selbst der deut- VD ins Bett. Für ders in Washington. Doch beim Einzel- sche Aussenminister Frank-Walter Stein- ihn, den Waadtlän- kämpfer Trump, der sich als Nichtpoliti- meier. «Ich habe mehrfach mit Henry der mit zweiter Hei- ker definiert und der seinen Wahlsieg Kissinger in New York über den zu er- mat USA, war an wartenden aussenpolitischen Inhalt und jenem Abend des 8. November alles klar: das Personal von Donald Trump gespro- UAm nächsten Tag würde Hillary Clinton chen», so Steinmeier. Doch auch der weise als Präsidentin verkündigt werden, am alte Mann und ehemalige republikani- Weltenlauf würde sich nicht viel ändern. sche Aussenminister, zu dem noch jeder Als ihn am Morgen das Radio weckte, amerikanische Politiker in der Hoffnung traute Borel seinen Ohren nicht. «Ich war auf guten Rat gepilgert ist, wusste keine völlig überrascht», sagt er. «Die Demo- Antwort. «Und mit ihm tappt die ganze kratie hat für einen Diktator gestimmt!» aussenpolitische Community in Washing- Seiher fragt sich der 68-Jährige: Was ton im Dunkeln.» Aus Trumps Wahl- wird der neue Präsident für seine Kinder kampfteam waren vorab auch keine bedeuten, die in den USA leben und dort Vertreter zu den europäischen Partner- unternehmerisch aktiv sind? Was für Regierungen entsandt worden, wie dies seine Firma Logitech, die seit 35 Jahren Zentrale früher üblich war. Ursula von der Leyen im Silicon Valley angesiedelt ist, wo die Versprechen seiner bringt es auf den Punkt: «Normalerweise überwältigende Mehrheit gegen Trump hat ein Kandidat einen Pool von Exper- gestimmt hat? «Ich habe keine Ahnung», Wahlkampagne ten, die man kennt», sagt die deutsche sagt Borel. «Ich weiss nur eines: Wir wer- hat Donald Trump Verteidigungsministerin. «Das ist hier den es schaffen. Trotz Trump.» nicht der Fall. Man wird jetzt erst einmal Zwei Wochen nach dem Wahlschock bereits wieder versuchen herauszufinden: Wer ist unser dominiert vor allem ein Thema: die Un- relativiert. Ansprechpartner?» Wenigstens eine Te- sicherheit. Wie sieht die neue Regierung lefonnummer hat das Aussendepartement aus? Was hat sie vor? Welche Folgen hat (EDA) von Didier Burkhalter: «Wir sind Fotos: Colourbox, Bloomberg, Getty Images 28 BILANZ 23 | 2016 BILLIGLOHN In chinesischen Fabri- ken wie dieser von Foxconn werden auch viele US-Produkte hergestellt. Die von Trump geplanten Schutzzölle würden Macbook und Co. in den USA massiv verteuern. seit Mai im Kontakt mit Walid Phares», Wirtschaftsprogramm ist», sagt Martin men zu kippen; die Abschaffung von heisst es dort. Phares, Experte für den Naville, CEO der Schweizerisch-Ameri- Obamacare. Keiner kennt die Pläne Nahen Osten auf Fox News, ist einer von kanischen Handelskammer AmCham. Trumps, vielleicht nicht einmal er selbst. Trumps fünf Beratern und zählt zu einem «Seine Vorhaben sind zum Teil sehr wi- Kein Wunder, werden mangels Visibi- engen Kreis illustrer Vertrauter des künf- dersprüchlich und basieren in keiner Art lität vielerorts die Ampeln auf Rot gestellt. tigen US-Präsidenten (siehe «Die neuen und Weise auf der Realität.» Und zentrale Der Spartenleiter eines grossen Schwei- Strippenzieher» auf Seite 34). Versprechen seiner Kampagne hat Trump zer Industriekonglomerates etwa hat Inhaltlich ist der Nebel noch dichter: bereits wieder relativiert: etwa das Ein- schnell reagiert: Zwei Tage nach Trumps «Wir wissen weder aus der Vergangenheit reiseverbot für Muslime in die USA; sein Wahl hat er die Tarifverhandlungen in noch aus der Kampagne, was Trumps Versprechen, das Pariser Klimaabkom- Deutschland abgebrochen und aufs • Exportlokomotive USA Investitionsboom Grosse Unsicherheit Während die Schweizer Exporte in die Die USA sind gemäss der Schweizerischen Das Volumen der Weltwirtscha meisten Länder abnahmen, stieg der Export Nationalbank die wichtigste Destination für könnte während Trumps Amtszeit stark in die USA seit 2011 massiv. Schweizer Direktinvestitionen im Ausland. vom Wachstumstrend abweichen. 40 Prozent +37,7 250 Milliarden Dollar Billionen Dollar Trump-Eekt Bestand Direktinvestitionen 224,0 30 120 000 Entwicklung der Schweiz in den USA 20 Schweizer Exporte 200 80 000 2011–2015 10 40 000 149,7 +50% 152,9 73,5 Brd. +2,7 150 0 20 000 +61% –10 –2,8 –3,0 10 000 –8,3 100 –9,8 Trend –20 5 000 –17,9 94,7 Bestand Direktinvestitionen d n A S rt der USA in der Schweiz Prognose EU IC 50 an ie eich US po 2 000 hl al Ex sc It BR l ut ankr ta 2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Fr 1965 75 85 95 05 15 De To 2024 Fotos: Colourbox, Bloomberg, Getty Images Quelle: EZV Quelle: U.S. Department of Commerce Quelle: Die Welt, Bloomberg 23 | 2016 BILANZ 29 UNTERNEHMEN TRUMP-SCHOCK FESTUNG Auf den Tag genau 27 Jahre nach dem Fall der Berliner Mauer wurde Trump gewählt. Er will die in Ansätzen bereits bestehenden Befesti- gungen an der Grenze zu Mexiko zu einem unüberwindlichen Schutzwall ausbauen. • • nächste Jahr verlegt. «Ich kann jetzt herum fliesst viel Geld: 17 Milliarden Dol- Olaf Tölke, Chefanalyst der Ratingagen- nicht die Personalkosten erhöhen, wenn lar investierten 2014 IBM, Google, Dis- tur Scope. Kein Wunder, haben Roche Deutschland wegen Trump in eine Rezes- ney und Co. hierzulande. und Novartis, UBS und Credit Suisse an sion geraten sollte», sagt er. Oder wie es den Börsen nach der Wahl mächtig Staub Rudolf Minsch, Chefökonom vom Wirt- Pharma und Grossbanken profitieren aufgewirbelt. schaftsdachverband Economiesuisse, aus- Zwei Schweizer Branchen sind von der Denn die USA sind für Roche und drückt: «Investitionsentscheidungen Wahl Trumps direkt betroffen: Pharma Novartis mit Abstand die wichtigsten trifft man am liebsten dann, wenn man und die Grossbanken. «Aus Schweizer Märkte. Rund 40 Prozent ihrer Erlöse Sicherheit hat.» Sicht dürften diese Sektoren, nach allem, erzielt die Schweizer Branche auf dem Für Schweizer Exporteure sind die was bisher absehbar ist, profitieren», sagt grössten Pharmamarkt der Welt. Und USA der weltweit zweitwichtigste Absatz- markt nach Deutschland. 2015 wurden Waren im Wert von 27 Milliarden US- Dollar in die USA verschifft, Tendenz stei- USA vor China und Russland gend. Das entspricht 13,5 Prozent am Ge- 2015 waren die USA nach Deutschland das zweitwichtigste Exportland der Schweiz. samtexport. Nicht weniger als 45 Prozent des Warenhandelsüberschusses erzielt EU:WMilliarden Franken elt: die Schweiz im Handel mit den Vereinig- 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 ten Staaten. Umgekehrt exportierten Deutschland 36,6 USA 27,4 Frankreich 14,0 amerikanische Firmen 2015 Waren im Italien 12,8 China 8,9 Wert von über 12 Milliarden US-Dollar Grossbritannien 11,7 Japan 6,4 in die Schweiz. Österreich 5,7 Hongkong 5,7 Auch als Geldgeber spielt die Alpen- Spanien 5,4 Afrika 3,2 Belgien/Luxemburg 5,2 Russland 2,2 nation eine wichtige Rolle: 24 Milliarden Niederlande 4,7 Brasilien 2,0 Dollar investierten Schweizer Konzerne Übriges Europa 23,3 Indien 1,8 2014 in den USA, damit liegt das Land Anteile am gesamten Exportvolumen auf Platz sieben. Rund 500 Schweizer Fir- men sind mit über 3500 Filialen in fast 53,7% 13,5% 7,4% 25,4% allen US-Staaten vertreten. Auch anders- EU USA BRIC Übrige Quelle: EZV Fotos: Getty Images 30 BILANZ 23 | 2016 GESUNDHEIT Erst wollte Trump das Obamacare- Programm ganz abschaffen, jetzt will er «etwas Besseres». Die Folgen für die Schweizer Pharmakonzerne? Unklar. bisher kann die Branche ihre Preise dort griffe in die Preissetzung drohen und dert. Von seinem Wahlkampfverspre- frei festsetzen, ihr steht kein globaler Ver- neue, teure Medikamente weiter vergü- chen, den «Affordable Care Act» – bes- handlungspartner gegenüber. Clinton tet werden. «Man kann erwarten, dass ser bekannt als Obamacare – wieder wollte das ändern, Trump hat sich hier Innovationen im Pharmasektor nun si- abzuschaffen, ist Trump inzwischen ab- weniger klar geäussert. Daher macht sich cherer sind», sagt David Epstein, Ex- gerückt. Bestimmte Elemente des Sys- in der Branche eine gewisse Erleichte- Pharmavorstand bei Novartis, der heute tems will er beibehalten – etwa dass kein rung breit, dass unmittelbar keine Ein- als Investor junge Biotech-Firmen för- Versicherer einen Kunden wegen Vor- • ANZEIGE DAS GEHEIMNIS FITTER MITARBEITER. Nah an der City, nah am See, perfekte Verkehrsanbin- dung, gut durchmischtes Quartier und viele Sport- und Freizeitmöglichkeiten: Ihre Mitarbeiter werden gerne in Greencity arbeiten. Ihre Controller übrigens auch – dank hervorragender Kosteneffizienz. Ihr Kontakt [email protected], [email protected] Fotos: Getty Images 3D-ENTDECKUNGSTOUR AUF: WWW.GREENCITY-OFFICES.CH zürich GREENCITY süd offices UNTERNEHMEN TRUMP-SCHOCK 2. Das Moderate-Case-Szenario stützen die Regierungsvorhaben. Die Libertari- Von EU-Kommissionspräsident
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