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THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION and the 115Th CONGRESS Rich Gold

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THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION and the 115Th CONGRESS Rich Gold AN OVERVIEW OF WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THE 115th CONGRESS Rich Gold 2 Opening Remarks and Agenda » Outlook for the Hill (Panel Discussion) » Energy and Environment » Infrastructure and Transportation » Tax Reform; Economic Development; Labor, Trade » Immigration; Homeland Security » Financial Services » Healthcare Reform/FDA » Outlook for Local Governments » Education » Native American Affairs 3 Paul Bock Kathryn Lehman Kerry Feehery 4 Outlook for the Hill: Election Results - Presidential Donald Trump Elected 45th President of the United States Mike Pence Elected Vice President Final Electoral College Results Trump: 306 Clinton: 232 WA ME MT ND OR MN ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV OH UT IL IN WV CO CA VA KS MO KY NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL 5 Outlook for the Hill (continued) Senate and House Composition Control of the 115th Senate (2016-2018) Democratic » Senate: Republicans Retained Thin Republican Majority Independent Undecided 1 - Senate Republicans still need 8 Democrats to 48 52 get to 60 for procedural votes, but nevertheless are poised to try and move key Administration priorities with control of two Total Seats* Democrats: 46 branches Republicans: 51 - *Louisiana seat faces a December runoff Independents: 2 (Caucus With Democrats) » House: Republicans Maintained Their Majority - Democrats had a net gain of 6 seats With 3 races outstanding: - Republicans gained 3 and lost 9 incumbents Republicans = 239* seats (as of print) Democrats = 193 seats - 218 needed for chamber majority - *Republicans will likely win the two outstanding Louisiana seats Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News. 6 Outlook for the Hill (continued) New Congress – Leaders and Committee Chairs » New Senate Committee Chairs: » New House Committee Chairs: - John Barrasso (WY) – Environment and Public Works - John Shimkus (IL) or Greg Walden (OR) - Energy (EPW) Committee and Commerce - Mike Crapo (ID) – Banking, Housing, and Urban - Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) – Appropriations Affairs Committee Committee - Richard Shelby (AL) – Rules and Administration - Phil Roe (TN), Gus Bilirakis (FL), or Doug Lamborn Committee (CO) – Veterans Affairs Committee - Virginia Foxx (NC) – Education and Workforce » New Senate Committee Ranking Members: Committee - Chuck Schumer (NY) – Minority Leader - Budget Committee – open (Tom Price went to HHS) - Patrick Leahy (VT) – Appropriations Committee - Homeland Security Committee – could be open if - Dianne Feinstein (CA) – Judiciary Committee McCaul goes to DHS - Tom Carper (DE) – Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee » New House Committee Ranking Members: - Claire McCaskill (MO) – Homeland Security and - Mark Takano (CA) or Tim Walz (MN) – Veterans Governmental Affairs Committee Affairs Committee - Tom Udall (NM) – Indian Affairs Committee - Bobby Scott (VA) or Jared Polis (CO) – Education - Mark Warner (VA) – Intelligence Committee and Workforce Committee - Bob Casey (PA) – Aging Committee - John Yarmuth (KY) or Tim Ryan (OH) – Budget Committee - Chris Coons (DE) – Ethics Committee - Amy Klobuchar (MN) – Rules Committee - Jon Tester (MT) – Veterans Affairs Committee 7 Outlook for the Hill (continued) Administration Transition Leadership and Cabinet Appointees Potential Leadership and Cabinet Appointees » White House COS: » Defense Secretary: » USDA Secretary: ˗ Reince Priebus, Chair of RNC ˗ Stephen Hadley, Former National ˗ Sonny Perdue, Former Gov. of GA » White House Chief Strategist: Security Advisor ˗ Sam Brownback, Gov. of KS ˗ Stephen Bannon, Chair of Breitbart ˗ James Mattis, Ret. Marine General ˗ Chuck Conner, Deputy Secretary of News » State Department: USDA under George W. Bush » Attorney General: ˗ Mitt Romney, 2012 Rep. Presidential ˗ Dave Heineman, Former Gov. of NE ˗ Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator from AL Candidate » DHS Secretary: » National Security Advisor: ˗ Rudy Giuliani, Former NY Mayor ˗ Michael McCaul, U.S. Congressman ˗ Michael Flynn, Former Director of ˗ David Petraeus, Ret. Army General, from TX DIA Former CIA Director ˗ Kris Kobach, Secretary of State in KS » White House Counsel: » Energy Secretary: ˗ David Clarke, Sheriff, Milwaukee, WI ˗ Donald McGahn, Jones Day Partner ˗ Harold Hamm, Bakken Oil Developer, » HUD Secretary: Romney Energy Advisor » CIA Director: ˗ Ben Carson, 2016 Rep. Presidential ˗ Robert Grady, Venture Capitalist ˗ Mike Pompeo, U.S. Congressman Candidate from KS » Interior Secretary: » Labor Secretary: » Education Secretary: ˗ Forrest Lucas, Founder of Lucas Oil ˗ Victoria Lipnic, Commissioner of the ˗ Betsy DeVos ˗ Robert Grady, Venture Capitalist EEOC » HHS Secretary: ˗ Jan Brewer, Former Gov. of AZ » EPA Administrator: ˗ Tom Price, U.S. Congressman from ˗ Mary Fallin, Gov. of OK ˗ Myron Ebell, Competitive Enterprise GA » OMB Director: Institute » DOT Secretary: ˗ Sen. Tom Coburn, Former U.S. ˗ Robert Grady, Venture Capitalist ˗ Elaine Chao, Former DOL Secretary Senator from OK ˗ Jeffrey Holmstead, Former Deputy under George W. Bush ˗ Eric Ueland, Rep. Staff Director, EPA Administrator » Commerce Secretary: Senate Budget Committee » VA Secretary: ˗ Wilbur Ross, Investor ˗ Scott Brown, Former Senator from » Treasury Secretary: MA ˗ Steve Mnuchin, Trump Finance Chair ˗ Jeff Miller, Ret. Chairman, House Veterans Affairs Committee 8 Outlook for the Hill (continued) New Administration Priorities & Important Dates » Priorities and First 100 Days » Legislation to Be Considered in 115th Congress: ˗ Potential Infrastructure Package ˗ 2017 Appropriations – March or end of CR ˗ Focus on Obamacare/Dodd-Frank ˗ Career and Technical Education (CTE) Rollbacks, Reforms Reauthorization ˗ Immigration Reform ˗ Perkins Career Technical Education Reauthorization ˗ Potential SCOTUS Nomination ˗ Higher Education Reauthorization ˗ Corporate Tax Reform ˗ U.S. Fire Administration, Assistance to Firefighter Grants Reauthorization ˗ Lift Restrictions on Energy Production ˗ Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Response » Important Dates Grants Reauthorization ˗ Jan. 20, 2017: 45th president-elect’s inauguration at ˗ Prescription Drug User Fee Act – expires Sept. 30, noon 2017 ˗ Feb. 6, 2017: President is required by Public Law 101- ˗ Generic Drug User Fee Act 508 to submit a budget request by the first Monday in February; there's no penalty for missing the deadline ˗ Biosimilar User Fee Act ˗ Feb. 15, 2017: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is ˗ Medical Device User Fee Act required to release its annual budget estimate ˗ Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) – expires ˗ March 15, 2017: Debt ceiling comes back into effect; Sept. 30, 2017 when borrowing authority has lapsed in the past, the ˗ FAA Reauthorization – expires Sept. 30, 2017 – and Treasury Department has used so-called extraordinary other related issues measures to avoid defaulting on government obligations 9 Outlook for the Hill (continued) 2018 Elections & Things to Watch » 33 U.S. Senators Up For Re-election in 2018: 23 Democrats, two Independents who Caucus with Democrats and eight Republicans » Vulnerable Senate Seats: Joe Donnelly (D-IN); Claire McCaskill (D-MO); Jon Tester (D-MT); Heidi Heitkamp (D- ND); Joe Manchin (D-WV); Bill Nelson (D-FL); Sherrod Brown (D-OH); Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Tim Kaine (D-VA) Things to Watch: Trump/Pence relationship with Congress New dynamic between McConnell and Schumer "Never Trumpers" in Senate Navigating the new normal Early Trumpers in House 10 Dimitri Karakitsos Ben Dunham Beth Viola 11 Energy and Environment Energy » Federal approach to energy under the Trump Administration ˗ Core agencies: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of the Interior (DOI) ˗ Department of Defense (DOD): focus on national security and mission assurance » Big Picture: push for complete energy independence ˗ Energy infrastructure: Keystone XL, Dakota Access ˗ Opening federally protected lands ˗ Reduced federal oversight ˗ SEC Disclosure Rule, which requires energy companies to report payments to foreign governments ˗ Methane regulation: BLM-issued final rule from November on methane and flaring, EPA regulation ˗ Repeal of BLM-issued rule on hydraulic fracturing ˗ Research and commercialization funding for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology » Energy initiatives in question ˗ Federal support for renewables ˗ Executive Order on Federal Sustainability ˗ Renewable Fuels Standard 12 Energy and Environment (continued) Climate Change » Big Picture: Trump’s position on climate change? ˗ Global engagement ˗ Domestic engagement » Trump Administration will review U.S. involvement in Paris Agreement ˗ Trump has stated he has an “open mind” about the Paris Agreement ˗ If the U.S. withdraws: • Option 1: Four-year timeline to pull out of Agreement • Option 2: Pull out of UNFCCC altogether • Option 3: Cripple U.S. financial commitments by ending payments to Green Climate Fund » EPA reform is on Trump’s agenda, but not in the first 100 days plan ˗ Clean Power Plan ˗ Social cost of carbon ˗ 2007 Endangerment Finding, which established greenhouse gases as pollutants, may be revisited 13 Energy and Environment (continued) Environmental » TSCA Implementation ˗ EPA to begin evaluations of the first ten chemicals and complete required rulemakings » Regulatory reform ˗ RNC platform: shift power back to states ˗ REINS Act ˗ Softening or rollback of: • Waters of the U.S. Rule, which governs the jurisdiction of the Clean Water Act •NEPA • Endangered Species Act • Stream Protection Rule ˗ EPA may initiate
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