STATE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH 2008 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey Democrats have been on a roll in legislative elections and increased their numbers again in 2008. Buoyed by the strong campaign of President Barack Obama in many key states, Democratic gains last year leave them at their best political position in legislatures in well over a decade. Democrats control 24 legislatures, Republicans control 14 and 8 are divided between the two parties.

For the third consecutive election cycle, Demo- Obama, Republicans picked up seats and took major- crats made gains in legislatures in 2008 elections. ity control, and in fact, an anti-Obama backlash in Democrats now hold more than 55 percent of all leg- those states may have helped Republican candidates. LVODWLYHVHDWVIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHVLQFHJHWWLQJFUXVKHG was the only state in the country where by Republicans in 1994. Democrats netted just shy Senator McCain won every county. of 100 seats in 2008 padding their 350 seat gains With redistricting just around the proverbial cor- over the past four years. The gains were far from a ner, Republicans are hoping for a big comeback in ODQGVOLGHDQGGHÀQLWHO\OLPLWHGEHFDXVHWKHSDUW\KDV 2010 when traditionally, the party controlling the come off of two consecutive election cycles where White House loses big in legislative races. The GOP they increased their numbers. can also take solace in the fact that the last time a Nationally, it’s been a rough four years for party gained seats in four consecutive elections was in Republican legislative candidates. After the 2004 the 1930s. Winning four election cycles in a row has election, there were almost exactly the same num- only happened twice in the past 110 years. But 2008, ber of Republican and Democratic state legislators. like 2006 and 2004, belonged to the Democrats. Now, there are 862 more Democratic legislators than Republicans, and Democrats control a majority of all Post-2008 Numbers state legislatures. $WRWDORIRIWKHQDWLRQ·VVWDWHOHJLVOD- Courtesy of 2008 gains, Democratic legislators tive seats were scheduled for elections last year in 44 ÀOORIWKHQDWLRQ·VVWDWHOHJLVODWLYHVHDWV states. Six states did not have regular legislative elec- with Republicans holding 3,222. Third party can- tions in 2008. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and didates, including the country’s only current Green Virginia hold state-level elections in odd-numbered 3DUW\OHJLVODWRULQ$UNDQVDVFRQWUROOHJLVODWLYH \HDUVVRWKH\KDGRQO\VSHFLDOHOHFWLRQVWRÀOOYDFDQ- seats, or less than one percent. Candidates run for the cies in 2008. In Maryland and Alabama, all legisla- Nebraska Senate in nonpartisan elections, so those tors serve four-year terms and were last elected in 49 senate seats are considered nonpartisan. As is 2006, so they also did not have any elections. Michi- always the case, a handful of seats are vacant pend- gan and Minnesota only had state house elections ing special elections or appointments. last year; no senate seats were up in those two states. President Obama’s convincing Electoral College More than 10,000 candidates ran in the general elec- win spelled good news for many Democratic legis- tion for legislative seats in 2008, and as usual, about lative candidates. At the top of the ticket, Obama, 35 percent of the races were uncontested. a former Illinois state senator, won the Electoral Prior to the 2008 election, Democrats controlled &ROOHJHYRWHDQGGHIHDWHG$UL]RQD6HQD- the legislative branch in 23 states while Republicans tor John McCain by more than 9.4 million votes had majority control in both chambers in 14 states. garnering 52.9 percent of all votes cast for presi- In 12 states, partisan control was divided with nei- GHQW2EDPD·VFRDWWDLOVDQGYDXQWHGFDPSDLJQÀHOG ther party controlling both the house/assembly and operation undoubtedly helped Democrats gain seats, senate. The legislature of Nebraska is unicameral and in some cases majority control, in legislatures and nonpartisan. Elections in 2008 led to Democrats in some highly contested battleground states such adding four to the number of states in their column— as Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. However, in states DOOVWDWHVWKDWZHUHSUHYLRXVO\GLYLGHG$WVWDWHV like Oklahoma and that did not see sub- Democrats now control more than half of all legisla- stantial campaign activity from either McCain or WXUHVIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHVLQFHEHIRUHWKHHOHFWLRQ

The Council of State Governments 77 STATE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH

Figure A: State Legislative Party Control, 2009

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Source: National Conference of State Legislators, 2008. when they had the majority of both chambers in 30 ties in 60 chambers. Republicans claim an outright states. Republicans emerged from the election con- majority in 36 legislative bodies and two wound up trolling both houses of the legislature in 14 states. tied. The election left the , the nation’s Only eight legislatures have divided control which is smallest legislative body, tied at 10 Democrats to 10 the lowest number of split legislatures in 25 years. Republicans and the Montana House, the nation’s Democrats gained legislative seats in 31 of the 44 most competitive legislative body, tied at 50 Demo- states with 2008 elections, and Republicans picked crats to 50 Republicans. up seats in nine states. There were three states (Kan- sas, Missouri and Washington) where the overall New Majorities partisan numbers were the same before and after the Since 1900, an average of 12 legislative chambers election. change hands in every election cycle and just like There were only 11 governor’s races in 2008. in 2006, this was an average year. Twelve cham- Missouri was the only state where the party of the bers switched hands in this election cycle including governor changed in the election going from Repub- two that went from tied to Democratic control. In lican to Democrat. However, Republicans regained the 2008 elections, Democrats supplemented their FRQWURORIWKHJRYHUQRU·VRIILFHLQ$UL]RQDDIWHU SLFNXSRIWKH9LUJLQLD6HQDWHLQE\DGGLQJ Democrat Gov. Janet Napolitano resigned to become ÀYHFKDPEHUVWRWKHLUFRQWUROFROXPQ5HSXEOLFDQV the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Secu- earned the majority in four legislative bodies. As rity under President Obama thus making Republican noted above, two chambers went from GOP control 6HFUHWDU\RI6WDWH-DQ%UHZHU$UL]RQD·VJRYHUQRU to being tied—the Alaska Senate and the Montana Democrats still hold the majority of governors with a House. 'HPRFUDW5HSXEOLFDQDGYDQWDJH7KHUHDUH The Montana House, now tied 50 Democrats states in all regions of the country where Democrats to 50 Republicans, has been the most competitive control all of state government. Republicans control chamber in the country for the past 20 years. Party the governor and the legislature in nine states, and 23 control in the Montana House has shifted nine times states have divided control. since 1980—more than any other legislative body. In terms of legislative chambers, the post-2008 0RQWDQDWDNHVWKHSUL]HIRUSROLWLFDOFRPSHWLWLYH- numbers looked good for Democrats. Headed into ness in legislative elections because in addition to 2009 sessions, Democrats had numerical majori- the House, the next most competitive chamber in the

78 The Book of the States 2009 STATE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH

Figure B: Percentage of Legislative Seats Held by Democrats and Republicans, 1900–2008

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% % Democrats 10% % Republicans

0 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Note: 3HUFHQWDJHFDOFXODWLRQH[FOXGHVQRQSDUWLVDQHOHFWLRQVLQ0LQQHVRWD ² DQG1HEUDVND ²SUHVHQW  Source: National Conference of State Legislators, 2008.

country over the past 30 years is the . of several such arrangements coming off the 2008 It has switched eight times since 1980 and is now election. There are similar, coalition style, leader- held by Republicans after four years of a Democratic ship arrangements in four additional chambers—the majority. Under Montana law, the party holding the Louisiana House, the Senate, the Ten- JRYHUQRU·VRIÀFHJHWVWRRUJDQL]HDQGFKRRVHWKH nessee House and the Texas House. It is not unusual leaders when there is a tie in the legislature. Since for there to be coalition leadership in one or two the state has a Democratic governor, the Montana OHJLVODWXUHVHYHU\\HDUEXWÀYHFKDPEHUVDWRQFHLV House is Democratic Rep. Bob Bergren. At unusually high. least one state legislative body has been tied with an In addition to taking the Montana Senate, the even number of Democrats and Republicans for the other bright spots for the GOP were in two southern past 25 years. During that time, both the Alaska Sen- states, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Before the elec- ate and Montana House were tied twice before, so tion, the was tied 24 Democrats those two chambers are now tied for the third time to 24 Republicans and had been operating with co- in 25 years. Senate leaders for two years under a power sharing The other tied legislative body following last agreement. In a state where Republican presidential year’s elections is the Alaska Senate. A coalition candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain ran very strong, including all 10 Democratic and three Republican the party grabbed two Senate seats emerging with senators voted to elect Republican Sen. Gary Stevens a 26 Republican to 22 Democrat majority. It is the as the Senate President in Alaska. Democrats gained ÀUVWWLPHVLQFH2NODKRPDEHFDPHDVWDWHLQ seats in both chambers of the even that Republicans have controlled the Sooner State though the state’s popular governor, Sarah Palin, was Senate. at the top of the GOP ticket as the vice-presidential Technically, the was also tied at candidate. 16-16 with one independent prior to last fall’s elec- The coalition vote for Alaska Senate President tion although Republicans had functional control where the leader needed a substantial block of the over the body under a coalition vote including the opposite, or minority, party to get elected was one lone independent. Tennessee was another state where

The Council of State Governments 79 STATE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH

McCain ran strong helping Republicans there win United States. Republicans controlled the Nevada three additional seats and earn a 19 Republican to Senate for 16 years although never by more than 14 Democrat majority. The Tennessee House results three seats. were far closer. In the 2008 election, 50 Republican candidates won Tennessee House seats giving the Regional Breakdown SDUW\DQXPHULFDOPDMRULW\LQWKH+RXVHIRUWKHÀUVW Republicans renewed their success in the southern time since reconstruction. However, in a contentious part of the United States in the 2008 election cycle vote for the House Speaker, all 49 Democratic Repre- although not by much. The party netted 6 legislative sentatives joined to elect Republican Kent Williams seats in the 15 southern states. Since 1982, Republi- as the new Speaker. The Tennessee State Republican cans have steadily gained seats in the south in every Party subsequently expelled Williams from the state election except for 2006 when Democrats won 24 party. seats. Republicans now hold 14 of the 30 legislative Democrats picked up chambers from Republicans chambers in the south. Republican gains in the region LQÀYHVWDWHVLQFOXGLQJVHYHUDOLQODUJHVWDWHVWKDWKDG were hampered by a strong Democratic showing in been controlled by the GOP for decades. Perhaps the Texas House races where Republicans held on to a ELJJHVWSUL]HIRU'HPRFUDWVZDVWKH1HZ

80 The Book of the States 2009 STATE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH making up more than 3 percent of legislatures. Most JDLQHGVHDWVLQRXWRIWKHODVWPLGWHUPHOHFWLRQ /DWLQROHJLVODWRUVVHUYHLQÀYHVWDWHV1HZ0H[LFR cycles which is a daunting trend for Democrats to California, Texas, Florida and Nevada. break. And if Democrats could manage to net seats in 2010, it would be the fourth consecutive election Conclusion cycle to go their way, and that hasn’t happened since Overall legislative turnover was down slightly in Democrats did it in 1936. Unless legislative election WRSHUFHQWZLWKPRUHWKDQQHZVWDWH trends going back over a century break, 2010 could OHJLVODWRUVWDNLQJRIÀFHLQ7KHWXUQRYHUQXP- be a resurgent year for the GOP just in time for legis- bers may spike up in 2010 because the national parties lative and congressional redistricting. will be pouring money into state legislative races at unprecedented levels in advance of redistricting. That could lead to more volatility. It is also possible that About the Author some current members will want to retire before 2010 Tim Storey is a senior fellow in the Legislative Manage- rather than face a rancorous redistricting process. ment Program of the Denver, Colo.-based National Confer- Even though 2008 was another Democratic year HQFH RI 6WDWH /HJLVODWXUHV +H VSHFLDOL]HV LQ WKH DUHDV RI in legislative elections, Republicans have plenty of HOHFWLRQVDQGUHGLVWULFWLQJDVZHOODVOHJLVODWLYHRUJDQL]D- reasons to be optimistic about the all-important 2010 tion and management. He has staffed NCSL’s Redistricting pre-redistricting election. Since 1900, the party hold- and Elections Committee since 1990 and authored numer- ing the White House has lost seats in legislatures ous articles on the topics of elections and redistricting. Every two years, he leads NCSL’s StateVote project to in every presidential mid-term election except for WUDFNDQGDQDO\]HOHJLVODWLYHHOHFWLRQUHVXOWV+HJUDGXDWHG two—in 1934 during the depression and in 2002 in an from Mars Hill College in North Carolina and received his election dominated by the events of Sept. 11, 2001. master’s degree from the University of Colorado’s Gradu- That means that the party out of the White House has ate School of Public Affairs.

The Council of State Governments 81