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Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis s Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis FINAL REPORT Report Prepared by: Liz St. Jean With support from: David Carment Adam Fysh Stewart Prest Copyright: not to be cited, duplicated or circulated without permission Feedback is welcome, and may be sent to [email protected] http://www.carleton.ca/cifp Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis PART A: OVERVIEW 3 1. NOTE 3 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3. EVENT TRENDS SUMMARY 6 4. FORECASTING 8 PART B: DETAIL 9 5. PROFILE 9 6. STAKEHOLDERS 11 7. SUB-NATIONAL RISK INDICATORS 14 7.1. SUMMARY 14 7.2. RISK INDICATORS BY CLUSTER 15 8. EVENTS DATA: TRENDS AND ANALYSIS 19 8.1. SUMMARY 19 8.2. PRIMARY DRIVERS 20 8.3. SECONDARY DRIVERS 24 PART C: ANNEX 25 9. SUMMARY OF DATA 25 10. TREND LINE CHARTS 26 10.1. ALL EVENTS 26 10.2. STABILIZING EVENTS 27 10.3. DESTABILIZING EVENTS 28 11. MAPS 29 12. BIBLIOGRAPHY 30 12.1. EVENT SOURCES 30 12.2. BIBLIOGRAPHY 31 13. METHODOLOGY 36 13.1. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS MONITORING 36 13.2. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS DATA COLLECTION 38 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 2 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis Part A: Overview 1. Note About this Report decided to adopt some elements of GEOPOL to meet the needs of policy This sub-national report has been makers, the academic community and the produced by the Country Indicators for private sector. The CIFP project as it Foreign Policy (CIFP) for use by non- became known has since then operated governmental organizations, businesses, under the guidance of principal academics, Canadian policy-makers, and investigator David Carment of Carleton other parties concerned with the current University and has received funding from and future state of sub-national regions. DFAIT, IDRC and CIDA. The project This Events Monitoring Profile is based on represents an on-going effort to identify a fusion of CIFP Risk Assessment and and assemble statistical information Events Monitoring methodologies.1 conveying the key features of the political, economic, social and cultural About the Author environments of countries around the world. Liz St. Jean is a research analyst for CIFP. Her area of study is international conflict The cross-national data generated through management, with a focus on CIFP was intended to have a variety of humanitarian intervention. Her current applications in government departments, research examines the factors involved in NGOs, and by users in the private sector. decisions regarding the use of force in The data set provides at-a-glance global peace operations. She has studied overviews, issue-based perspectives and economics as well as international country performance measures. Currently, relations at the University of British the data set includes measures of Columbia. She spent a year working on an domestic armed conflict, governance and independent research project that political instability, militarisation, religious involved three months in Northern and ethnic diversity, demographic stress, Uganda, and a month in Rwanda. economic performance, human development, environmental stress, and About CIFP international linkages. CIFP has its origins in a prototype The CIFP database currently includes geopolitical database developed by the statistical data in the above issue areas, in Canadian Department of National Defence the form of over one hundred in 1991. The prototype project called performance indicators for 196 countries, GEOPOL covered a wide range of political, spanning fifteen years (1985 to 2000) for economic, social, military, and most indicators. These indicators are environmental indicators through the drawn from a variety of open sources, medium of a rating system. In 1997, including the World Bank, the United under the guidance of Andre Ouellete, Nations Development Programme, the John Patterson, Tony Kellett and Paul United Nations High Commissioner for Sutherland, the Canadian Department of Refugees, the Stockholm International Foreign Affairs and International Trade Peace Research Institute, and the Minorities at Risk and POLITY IV data sets from the University of Maryland. 1 For information on the structural risk assessment, see Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2001) Risk Assessment Template, Available: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/docs/studra1101.pdf. Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 3 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis 2. Executive Summary Profile between Serbia and Kosovo authorities • Kosovo is a region in the Balkans with a to come to a negotiated agreement. large Albanian majority, who possess a demonstrated desire for independence. Baseline analysis • During the 1990s, the region • Kosovo is a medium-risk region with a experienced several conflicts, which score of 6.25. were characterized by ethnic fears and • The overall situation in Kosovo is hostility. This included attacks, destabilizing due to years of conflict, displacement and discrimination against structural governance problems, poor Albanians in Kosovo. economic development, and high ethnic • Agitation for Kosovo’s independence tensions. This is a consequence of the likewise led to violent conflict between ethnic violence, civil conflict and Albanians and Serbs in the mid 1990s, international intervention that Kosovo culminating in a military intervention by experienced in the late 1990s. the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. • The result is that today Kosovo is largely Event Trends administered by the United Nations • Events were monitored between 19 Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) with a NATO October 2005 and 2 May 2006. protection force (KFOR), although some • Events support the baseline conclusion services are run by the Provisional that Kosovo is a risky region. However, Institutions of Self-Government (PISG). the trend analysis concluded that • Economic conditions were relatively poor despite the overall destabilizing nature during the 1990s and then plummeted of the events, Kosovo exhibits a strongly following the conflict with Serbia. positive trend. • The main issue facing Kosovo today is • The improving trend is due to a rise in that of its future status; it has remained the number of stabilizing events a UN protected territory since 1999, and accompanied by a fall in the number and there has been little room for agreement magnitude of destabilizing events. Figure 1. Chart of trend lines for all events and the count of events by week Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 4 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis Primary drivers of event trends Scenarios • Armed Conflict experienced a reduction • Most likely case: relations between in violent incidents; Kosovo and Serbia improve; status talks • In Governance and Political Stability continue but without any foreseeable there was a lessening of inflammatory resolution. political statements and an increase in • Best case: Kosovo and Serbia agree conciliatory gestures; over Kosovo’s future status, and the • Economic Performance has a negative situation improves dramatically. trend due to some capital flight and • Worst case: Kosovo future status talks persistent unemployment; enter a deadlock with all actors at odds • International Linkages had a positive with one another. There is widespread trend but is still an area of concern, as discontent and low-level violence. the international community has begun to link Kosovo’s status with Serbia’s Conclusion poor ICTY cooperation. Moreover, the • Despite Kosovo’s grave history, it is trend in Serbia and Montenegro is poised to improve and could do so negative2, which will likely have a spill dramatically. over effect on Kosovo. • Kosovo should thus be largely able to absorb future damaging events. • However, the possibility of a worsening situation in Serbia and Montenegro needs to be closely monitored. 2 See Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2006) Sub-national Report for The State Union of Serbia and Montenegro: Events Scenarios and Analysis, forthcoming. Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 5 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Forecasting and Analysis 3. Event Trends Summary Overall General Trend There was a general increase in the International Linkages and Economic number of stabilizing events Performance are two main areas of accompanied by a fall in number and concern. The latter currently exhibits a magnitude of destabilizing events negative trend, and the former began The main source of the trend lies in to demonstrate an increase in the Armed Conflict, Governance and destabilizing events towards the end of Political Stability and International the reporting period. These two Linkages clusters, due to the onset of clusters could thus become a source of the Kosovo Future Status Talks and a future negative trend. reduction of violent activity. Primary Drivers Primary drivers are those clusters that Economic Performance contain more than twenty-five events. These clusters are the
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