LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, October 31, 2016

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, October 31, 2016

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Why Is Ecuador’s Senior Policy Advisor Conservatives, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP Fringe Candidates Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Government Prevail in Brazil JPMorgan Chase & Co. Local Elections W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, Reining in Assange? Voters on Sunday clobbered E.M. Warburg Pincus mainstream parties, including Dirk Donath the Workers’ Party of ousted Senior Partner, President Dilma Rousseff. Catterton Aimara Page 2 Marlene Fernández Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, Arcos Dorados ECONOMIC Peter Hakim APEC Has President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Boosted Peru’s Donna Hrinak Trade: Araoz President, Boeing Latin America Jon Huenemann The country’s trade with members Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, of APEC has increased 14 percent Philip Morris International WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been holed up inside Ecuador’s embassy in London since it became a member of since 2012. // File Photo: Ecuadorean Government. James R. Jones the bloc in 1998, said Mercedes Chairman, ManattJones Araoz, Peru’s second vice Global Strategies Ecuador’s government said Oct. 18 it had partly restricted president. Craig A. Kelly Page 3 Director, Americas International Internet access for WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil has lived in asylum in the Andean nation’s London embassy John Maisto Q POLITICAL Director, U.S. Education for more than four years. WikiLeaks has been in headlines Finance Group most recently for revealing emails aimed at embarrassing U.S. presi- Colombia’s Santos Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, dential candidate Hillary Clinton. Why has Ecuador, whose leader, Rafael Wants New Peace Grupo Marhnos Correa, often locks ideological horns with the United States, taken steps Deal by Christmas Thomas F. McLarty III to restrict Assange now? Are Assange’s days under Ecuador’s protection Chairman, Colombian President Juan McLarty Associates numbered? What has been the role of the United States and other inter- Manuel Santos said he wants a Carlos Paz-Soldan national actors in the latest developments? renegotiated peace deal with the Partner, FARC rebels by Christmas. Voters DTB Associates, LLP rejected his government’s peace Beatrice Rangel Francisco Borja Cevallos, Ecuador’s ambassador to the accord with the FARC on Oct. 2. Director, Page 3 AMLA Consulting LLC United States: “Ecuador granted political asylum to Julian José Antonio Ríos Assange in July 2012 because it considered that the situation Chief Executive Ofﬁ cer, Vadium Technology Inc. A had the required merits, and Ecuador has a long history of Gustavo Roosen granting asylum to those persecuted for political reasons. Ecuador still Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos believes the current underlying circumstances merit the asylum and will Andrés Rozental continue to safeguard his rights. In February, a United Nations panel President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior determined that Assange’s time in the embassy in London amounts to Policy Advisor, Chatham House an ‘arbitrary detention.’ Recently, Ecuador decided to temporarily restrict Shelly Shetty Head, Latin America his access to the Internet following the decision to publish documents Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc. that have an impact on the election in the United States. The decision to Roberto Sifon-Arevalo publish those documents is the sole responsibility of WikiLeaks and its Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, members. The government of Ecuador respects the principle of non-inter- Standard & Poor’s vention in the affairs of other countries; it does not interfere in the electoral processes in progress, nor does it support a candidate in particular. Santos // File Photo: Colombian Government. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS in the country, PSDB mayors will administer NEWS BRIEFS municipalities with nearly 24 percent of the Mainstream Parties country’s population. El Salvador’s Saca Arrested on Corruption Clobbered in Brazil’s Venezuela’s Maduro Allegations Second-Round Vote Enters Talks With Former Salvadoran President Tony Saca was arrested Saturday on allegations of illicit Brazilian voters on Sunday ousted mainstream Part of Opposition enrichment, unlawful association and money politicians in favor of conservative and fringe laundering, the Associated Press reported. candidates in a second round runoff election, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Sun- Prosecutors say that Saca, who held offi ce The Wall Street Journal reported. In one of the day night began talks with some members of from 2004 to 2009 with the conservative Na- most closely watched races, Marcelo Crivella, the country’s opposition coalition in a dialogue tionalist Republican Alliance, has not explained a senator and evangelical bishop, took 59 sponsored by the Vatican, the Associated the origins of some $6.5 million in assets he percent of the vote to win in Rio de Janeiro. Press reported. Fifteen parties belonging to acquired during his time in offi ce. Saca and the coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable, two of the six other suspects named by prose- boycotted the talks, saying they would not cutors were arrested at the wedding of one of engage with the government until it released Saca’s children, according to the report. several imprisoned opposition members and reversed a decision to halt an effort to schedule a referendum to recall Maduro. “For an Choice Aire to Begin eventual dialogue to take place it has to be very clear from the outset that the aim is agreeing Nonstop New Orleans- on the terms of a democratic transition in Honduras Flights the remainder of 2016,” the parties said in a Crivella // File Photo: Crivella Campaign. Choice Aire, a Miami-based public charter statement, the AP reported. Many of Maduro’s company, on Friday said it will begin offering Crivella painted his rival, Marcelo Freixo, as opponents have voiced concerns that the new nonstop fl ights from New Orleans to a socialist radical aligned with impeached Honduras starting in December, the Times-Pic- Workers’ Party President Dilma Rousseff. Evan- ayune reported. Operated by XTRA Airways, the gelical candidates had made signifi cant gains Many of Maduro’s fl ights will leave on Wednesdays and Saturdays in the fi rst round of voting earlier this year, and opponents have voiced from Louis Armstrong airport to Ramón Villeda Crivella, with his Brazilian Republican Party, or concerns that the talks Morales International Airport using 150-seat PRB, were among those to benefi t from a new may be a stalling tactic. Boeing 737-400 for the approximately three- electoral dynamic. The other major contest hour fl ight. The company’s chief executive, was in Belo Horizonte, capital of the sec- Danny Looney, said the fl ights will cater to both ond-most-populous state, Minas Gerais, where Vatican-led talks may be a stalling tactic aimed business and leisure travelers. soccer club manager Alexandre Kalil of the at easing pressure on Maduro. The president little-known Humanist Solidarity Party defeated said at the opening of the talks at a museum in a candidate with the conservative Brazilian western Caracas that he has an “absolute com- Social Democracy Party. The center-right Brazil- mitment” to holding talks with the opposition. Costa Rica’s Vehicle ian Democratic Movement Party of President “We’re giving a chance to disarm the hatred, the Insurance Rates to Michel Temer failed to gain ground on Sunday, intolerance, and open the door to love among Rise in November poll results show. Covering 18 state capital the Venezuelans,” Maduro said in televised cities and 39 other larger cities with more remarks. Former presidents of Panama, the Vehicle insurance rates in Costa Rica are set than 200,000 citizens, the election of 2016 Dominican Republic, Spain and a mediator from to rise beginning Tuesday, the Tico Times has given the center-right PSDB, which hasn’t the Vatican were on hand as the talks began. reported. The country’s National Insurance held the presidency since Fernando Henrique In addition to halting the opposition’s effort to Institute said the cost of automobile insurance Cardoso left offi ce in 2002, the largest share schedule a recall referendum against Maduro, policies, which represent a fi fth of the cost of of the country’s population it has held yet this Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which the “marchamos” insurance permits, will rise century, Folha de S.Paulo reported today. With the opposition sees as loyal to Maduro, also 6.8 percent to about $39, while motorcycle victories in 28 of the 92 of the largest cities delayed the country’s gubernatorial elections owners will have to pay 5.2 percent more, or about $109.

COPYRIGHT © 2016, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, October 31, 2016 that had been scheduled for December until ECONOMIC NEWS in November, said involvement with APEC has the middle of next year. Tens of thousands of helped expand Peru’s trade with China. “Our Venezuelans took to the streets last week in relations have been growing, especially with protest amid a backdrop of severe economic APEC Membership China; relations were formalized thanks to problems including shortages of basic goods Has Boosted Peru’s APEC, and now we have a strategic partner- such as food and medicine and an infl ation rate ship, which helped multiply trade,” Araoz told that is expected to surpass 700 percent this Trade: Araoz Andina. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged year. Another opposition-led rally is expected APEC members to speed up talks on the Free for Thursday in Caracas. This month, the oppo- Peruvian trade with member economies of the Trade Area of the Asia Pacifi c, or FTAAP, which sition-controlled National Assembly also voted Asia-Pacifi c Economic Cooperation Forum, Beijing is pushing, Reuters reported earlier this to put Maduro on trial, though the measure is or APEC, has increased 14 times since the month. APEC has previously approved work to- largely symbolic as it does not constitutionally Andean country joined the group in 1998, ward the establishment of FTAAP, which Xi said have the power to remove a president. Also, the state news agency Andina reported Sunday, was a “historic step.” However, some analysts country’s Supreme Court, which Maduro’s allies citing Mercedes Araoz, the country’s second see the initiative as a way to divert attention stacked with supporters late last year, has vice president. Araoz, who is serving as the from the 12-nation Trans-Pacifi c Partnership, ruled lawmakers’ decisions void. head of Peru’s APEC High-Level Extraordinary or TPP, trade agreement backed by the United Commission as Lima prepares to host the bloc States. Colombia’s Santos FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 Wants New Peace There was much speculation surrounding the increasingly untenable for Ecuador to claim decision from Ecuador to restrict his Internet neutrality in the ongoing confl ict between Deal by Christmas access, yet Ecuador’s foreign policy is solely Russia and the United States when it was based on sovereign decisions. Ecuadorean hosting such a high profi le hacker. So, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, who and Swedish competent authorities are col- despite Correa’s lack of enthusiasm for the suffered a major defeat when voters rejected laborating to conduct interrogations at the Obama administration, he clearly thought his government’s peace deal with the FARC reb- embassy in London regarding the allegations els, said in an interview published Saturday that against Assange.” he wants a new agreement by Christmas. “All There is very little the negotiators and I have met almost every or- Julio Carrión, associate doubt that Assange ganization and we are now digesting more than professor of political science and WikiLeaks have 500 proposals—and talking with the FARC—to and international relations at become active have a new agreement, agreed and approved, A the University of Delaware: collaborators in by Christmas. That is my goal,” Santos told “There are two explanations to account for Putin’s efforts to Britain’s Observer newspaper. Santos added Ecuador’s decision to restrict Assange’s undermine Hillary that any delay could threaten the entire peace access to the Internet. The fi rst is that there Clinton’s candidacy.” process. “This uncertainty is very risky, be- is a long Latin American tradition of granting — Julio Carrión cause anything could happen that could really asylum to political dissidents with the under- make the process explode. So I am working 24 standing that the asylee will not engage in hours a day, seven days a week, with my team open political activism that might embarrass that Assange was acting out of bounds with to get another agreement.” Santos, who has the host country. The other is that Ecuador the Latin American tradition of asylum and made the four-year peace talks the centerpiece feels that it is being put in the diffi cult was bringing attention to his administration of his presidency, said he was considering position of being an unwilling participant at a time when he’s engineering a diffi cult several options as ways to legitimize a renego- in the Russian campaign to meddle in the campaign to secure the election of his hand- tiated agreement. “Whatever mechanism I use U.S. election. There is very little doubt that picked successor. Did the United States put to implement it, whether through Congress, or Assange and WikiLeaks have become active pressure on him? Both the United States and through municipal councils or through another collaborators in Putin’s efforts to undermine Ecuador deny such pressure. Are Assange’s plebiscite or a combination, I will decide as Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. And Assange days of asylum in the Ecuadorean embassy soon as we have a new agreement and see was using the Ecuadorean embassy in numbered? I am skeptical. If Ecuador is able what would give it the best legitimacy, both London for this purpose. It was becoming to curtail Assange’s open meddling in the politically and legally,” he said. Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2016 U.S. election, there is no reason for a harsh of a grave mistake. But with polls giving action that could bring criticism to Correa Clinton a comfortable lead over Trump only Erik Brand from many that he sees as his natural allies.” days before the election, Correa decided Publisher [email protected] that Assange had become a problem to be Bruno Binetti, research asso- contained. It is unlikely that Washington Gene Kuleta Editor ciate at the Inter-American [email protected] Dialogue “For Ecuador, it made Nicole Wasson A sense to help Assange in 2012, Ecuador probably Reporter, Assistant Editor when WikiLeaks was revealing U.S. secret wants to avoid [email protected] diplomatic cables and the surveillance antagonizing a Washington had ordered against allies and potential Clinton foes alike. Granting asylum to Assange administration from allowed President Correa—a declared Michael Shifter, President anti-imperialist and ally of late Venezuelan the beginning.” Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow President Hugo Chávez—to defy the United — Bruno Binetti Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow States and raise his own global stature at a Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects relatively minimal cost. Today, the situation Kevin Casas-Zamora, Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program has changed. There are indications of a explicitly requested it, but Ecuador probably Ramón Espinasa, Nonresident Senior Fellow connection between Russia and WikiLeaks, wants to avoid antagonizing a potential Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program with the alleged intention of hurting Hillary Clinton administration from the beginning. Alejandro Ganimian, Nonresident Fellow Clinton’s campaign and (at least indirect- The South American country will elect a new Peter Hakim, President Emeritus ly) beneﬁ ting Donald Trump, a candidate president in 2017—Correa’s chosen suc- Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow profoundly rejected in Latin America and the cessor now leads the polls—amid a serious Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow world for his divisive politics, and racist and economic slump. The United States remains Margaret Myers, Director, China and sexist rhetoric. Ecuador risked being seen Ecuador’s largest trading partner by far, and Latin America Program as intervening in U.S. domestic politics—just economic cooperation could help alleviate Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration, Remittances & Development what Correa and others have been accus- the ongoing crisis.” Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow ing Washington of doing in Latin America Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration for decades. Expelling Assange from the The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program Ecuadorean embassy in London would be a section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta global embarrassment and the admission at [email protected]. Latin America Advisor is published every business day, except for major U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue at 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20005 www.thedialogue.org ISSN 2163-7962 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Subscription inquiries are welcomed at [email protected]

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