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Conventional World Scenarios: Technical Global Scenario Group Futures Technical Notes March 2002 Eric Kemp-Benedict, Charles Heaps, Paul Raskin PoleStar Series Report no. 9, 2002 ii Kemp-Benedict, Heaps and Raskin Stockholm Environment Institute – Boston Tellus Institute 11 Arlington Street Boston, MA 02116 Phone: 1 617 266 8090 Email: [email protected] SEI Web: http://www.sei.se GSG Web: http://www.gsg.org SEI PoleStar Series Report no. 9 (revised and expanded) March 2002 © Copyright 2002 by the Stockholm Environment Institute. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form by photostat, microfilm, or any other means, without the written permission of the publisher. Title page photo: View of Africa and Saudi Arabia from Apollo 17. NASA/NSSDC. Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes iii iv Kemp-Benedict, Heaps and Raskin Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes v Table of Contents 1 Introduction ......................................... 21 GSG Scenarios....................................................................................................................21 The Market Forces Scenario...........................................................................................22 The Policy Reform scenario............................................................................................22 The Fortress World Scenario..........................................................................................23 The Great Transition Scenario .......................................................................................23 Scenario Comparison .....................................................................................................23 Global Regions ...................................................................................................................25 The Structure of this Report................................................................................................27 2 Population, Economy, Poverty ............ 29 Demographics and Economics............................................................................................29 Population.......................................................................................................................29 Gross Domestic Product.................................................................................................30 Output by Sector .............................................................................................................32 Industrial Subsector Output............................................................................................33 Income Distribution and Poverty........................................................................................37 Methodology ...................................................................................................................37 Sensitivity Analyses.........................................................................................................45 3 Energy .................................................. 49 Energy Consumption ..........................................................................................................49 Total Final Consumption................................................................................................49 Households......................................................................................................................53 vi Kemp-Benedict, Heaps and Raskin Services ...........................................................................................................................62 Agriculture......................................................................................................................69 Industry ...........................................................................................................................76 Transportation ................................................................................................................85 Energy Conversion............................................................................................................104 Primary Energy Production...............................................................................................112 Energy Resources..............................................................................................................116 4 Agriculture and Food ......................... 124 Demand for Agricultural Products....................................................................................125 Trade and Regional Supply...............................................................................................132 Animal Products ...........................................................................................................134 Crop Products...............................................................................................................135 Livestock Production and Feed.........................................................................................139 Feed Requirements........................................................................................................140 Feed Supply...................................................................................................................144 Fisheries and Aquaculture............................................................................................151 Crop Production................................................................................................................151 Irrigation.......................................................................................................................154 Yield and Cropping Intensity........................................................................................157 Cultivated Land.............................................................................................................162 Cropland Degradation..................................................................................................166 Fertilizer .......................................................................................................................169 5 Land Use and Forestry ...................... 174 Protected Land ..................................................................................................................176 The Built Environment .....................................................................................................177 Conversion to Agricultural Land ......................................................................................180 Cropland .......................................................................................................................180 Grazing and Pasture Land............................................................................................181 Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes vii Forestry and Forests..........................................................................................................181 Forestry.........................................................................................................................182 Deforestation ................................................................................................................186 Barren and Other Land......................................................................................................188 6 Water.................................................. 190 Resources ..........................................................................................................................190 Withdrawals and Water Stress..........................................................................................192 Withdrawals by Sector......................................................................................................196 Domestic .......................................................................................................................197 Manufacturing ..............................................................................................................201 Energy Conversion .......................................................................................................206 Agriculture....................................................................................................................210 Water Stress ......................................................................................................................215 7 Pollution ............................................. 218 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change ...........................................................................218 Biomass Fuels and Indoor Air Pollution...........................................................................221 Acidification .....................................................................................................................222 Water Pollution.................................................................................................................225 Domestic BOD Loadings ..............................................................................................226 Livestock Production ....................................................................................................229 Fertilizer .......................................................................................................................229 Industrial BOD Loadings..............................................................................................230
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