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2014 Post-Election Analysis: Ohio

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2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: OHIO TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 4 Absentee/Early Voting 4 Regional Analysis 5 Election Law Impacts 6 Exit Polling 6 GOVERNOR 11 Media Spending Analysis 13 Geographic Analysis 15 SECRETARY OF STATE 17 Media Spending Analysis 18 Geographic Analysis 21 STATE LEGISLATURE 22 State Senate 22 State House 23 Consequences 24 STATE OVERVIEW Going into 2014, Ohio was expected to be a major battleground in the election cycle, particularly in state elections, with a key gubernatorial race and several potentially competitive down-ballot constitutional matchups. The anticipated matchup between Republican incumbent Governor John Kasich and Democratic Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races of 2014. Democrats also landed top-tier candidates for down- ballot statewide races; notably, state Senator Nina Turner and state Representative Connie Pillich launched bids for secretary of state and treasurer, respectively.1 Democrats were presented with fewer opportunities at the congressional and legislative level in 2014. The 2010 decennial redistricting process, which Republicans controlled, locked in safe districts for many Republican incumbents, leaving only a small number of competitive congressional and General Assembly districts.2 OH-14 and OH-06, represented by Republican incumbents David Joyce and Bill Johnson, respectively, are potentially competitive districts, but they did not attract significant competition in 2014. As a testament to the lack of competitive races in Ohio, 4.4 times as many broadcast TV ads aired in U.S. House races in the neighboring state of West Virginia, which has 13 fewer congressional seats.3 At the legislative level, a handful of state Senate races were targeted, notably SD-03, SD-05, and SD-13, where Republican incumbents Kevin Bacon, Bill Beagle and Gayle Manning were all running in districts that Obama carried in 2012.4 Going back to 2011, when labor and progressive groups successfully batted back SB 5, anti-public sector union legislation, Kasich emerged as one of the most unpopular governors in the country, and Ohio’s unemployment rate hovered above 8%.5 However, Democrats’ optimism was tempered by mid-summer 2014, as FitzGerald’s gubernatorial campaign foundered amid unflattering personal revelations, and Kasich was able to leverage Ohio’s improving economy to bolster his case for a second term.6 In the once-promising down-ballot statewide races, only Connie Pillich, running against incumbent Republican Josh Mandel in the race for state treasurer, went into Election Day within striking distance in the polls.7 On election night, the momentum that had been building against Democrats all year came to a head; Kasich and the full slate of Republican constitutional officeholders won re-election, with the incumbent governor defeating challenger Ed FitzGerald by more than thirty points, 64% to 33%. Of the statewide Democratic candidates, only Pillich won more than 40% of the vote, falling 43% to 57% to Mandel. Ohio’s U.S. House delegation remained static, with Republicans moving forward with a 12-4 partisan composition advantage in the 114th Congress. In the legislature, Republicans increased their majority in the state House from 60 to 65; included among the losing Democratic legislators was Chris Redfern, chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, who resigned from that position on election night.8 The partisan composition in the state Senate remained unchanged, 23 9 Republicans and 10 Democrats. 1 Sean Sullivan and Aaron Blake, “The Fix’s top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014,” Washington Post, November 15, 2013. 2 Griff Palmer and Michael Cooper, “How Maps Helped Republicans Keep an Edge in the House,” New York Times, December 14, 2012. 3 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 4 “Daily Kos Elections’ 2012 election results by congressional and legislative districts,” Daily Kos, May 20, 2014. 5 “Senate Bill 5 headed for resounding defeat Tuesday,” Public Policy Polling, 1,022 likely voters, MoE ±3.1%, November 4–6, 2011; “Local Area Unemployment Statistics – Ohio,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed October 27, 2014. 6 Aaron Blake, “The remarkable implosion of Ed FitzGerald,” Washington Post, August 29, 2014; Bob Sandrick, “John Kasich touts economic growth and balanced state budget during campaign stop in Strongsville,” Cleveland.com, August 6, 2014. 7 “GOP candidates appear to be locks,” Columbus Dispatch, 1,009 likely voters, MoE ±3.3%, October 22–31, 2014. 8 Jeremy Pelzer, “Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern loses House seat,” Cleveland.com, November 4, 2014. 9 Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014. 2 Ohio 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % GOP % Party % % Margin OH-01 Fred Kundrata Steve Chabot R 36.5% 63.5% - -27.0% Marek OH-02 Brad Wenstrup R 33.9% 66.1% - -32.2% Tyszkiewicz OH-03 Joyce Betty John Adams D 63.9% 36.1% - 27.8% OH-04 Janet Garrett Jim Jordan R 32.2% 67.8% - -35.6% OH-05 Robert Fry Bob Latta R 28.8% 66.6% 4.6% -37.8% OH-06 Jennifer Garrison Bill Johnson R 38.6% 58.2% 3.2% -19.6% OH-07 N/A Bob Gibbs R - 100.0% - -100.0% OH-08 Tom Poetter John Boehner R 27.3% 67.3% 5.4% -40.0% OH-09 Marcy Kaptur Richard May D 67.7% 32.3% - 35.4% OH-10 Robert Klepinger Mike Turner R 31.3% 65.4% 3.3% -34.1% OH-11 Marcia Fudge Mark Zetzer D 79.2% 20.8% - 58.4% OH-12 David Tibbs Pat Tiberi R 27.7% 68.2% 4.1% -40.5% OH-13 Tim Ryan Thomas Pekarek D 68.5% 31.5% - 37.0% OH-14 Michael Wager David Joyce R 33.0% 63.3% 3.7% -30.3% OH-15 Scott Wharton Steve Stivers R 33.9% 66.1% - -32.2% OH-16 Pete Crossland Jim Renacci R 36.2% 63.8% - -27.6% Governor Ed FitzGerald John Kasich R 32.9% 63.8% 3.3% -30.9% Attorney General David Pepper Mike DeWine R 38.3% 61.7% - -23.4% John Patrick Auditor Dave Yost R 38.1% 57.2% 4.7% -19.1% Carney Secretary of Nina Turner Jon Husted R 35.3% 60.1% 4.6% -24.8% State Treasurer Connie Pillich Josh Mandel R 43.3% 56.7% - -13.4% State Senate 10 seats 23 seats R 10 D 23 R - No change State House 39 seats 60 seats R 34 65 - R+5 Sources: “2014 Post Election Governors & Partisan Splits,” Stateside Associates, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:43 p.m; “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m REGISTRATION OVERVIEW Ohio is not a party registration state, and party ID is not available on the state voter file. Below is total statewide voter registration by federal election cycle. Through Election Day, total registration in Ohio was 7,748,201. This is a ten-year low and a drop of 10 more than 500,000 registrants from peak levels in 2008. 10 “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 3 Ohio Voter Registration by Party Date Total November 2004 7,972,826 November 2006 7,860,052 November 2008 8,287,665 November 2010 8,037,806 November 2012 7,987,203 November 2014 7,748,201 Change Since 2004 -224,625 Sources: “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. TURNOUT ANALYSIS Historically, turnout in Ohio has exceeded the national average. The number of voters casting ballots in Ohio peaked with 2008’s presidential election, but it barely exceeded the voting-eligible population’s (VEP) turnout rate from 2004.11 In 2010, Democrats experienced a large drop-off among key demographic groups and in historically high-performing areas. Compared to 2008, turnout in the 2012 election fell by over two points.12 In 2014, according to initial numbers, VEP turnout in Ohio fell significantly from 2010 state numbers and dropped below the national average for this cycle. In 2010, with the closely contested gubernatorial matchup between incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland and John Kasich, VEP turnout in Ohio was 44.9%, a full four points above the national average. In 2014, without a competitive top- of-the-ticket race, turnout fell to 36.2%, just below the national average of 36.6%.13 Ohio VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 8,513,079 5,698,260 66.9% 61.6% 2010 8,572,548 3,852,453 44.9% 40.9% 2012 8,648,932 5,580,822 64.5% 58.6% 2014* 8,700,170 3,150,000 36.2% 36.6% Difference from 2010 127,622 -702,453 -8.7% -4.3% Difference from 2012 51,238 -2,430,822 -28.3% -22.0% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. * 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final. ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Individual county boards of elections in Ohio are responsible for reporting absentee vote returns. As a result, absentee vote data reporting practices vary across counties.14 Early and absentee voting 11 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 12 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed October 22, 2014. 13 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 14 “Voting Absentee by Mail,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed October 27, 2014.
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