2014 Post-Election Analysis: Ohio

2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: OHIO

TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2

Registration Overview 3

Turnout Analysis 4

Absentee/Early Voting 4

Regional Analysis 5

Election Law Impacts 6

Exit Polling 6

GOVERNOR 11

Media Spending Analysis 13

Geographic Analysis 15

SECRETARY OF STATE 17

Media Spending Analysis 18

Geographic Analysis 21

STATE LEGISLATURE 22

State Senate 22

State House 23

Consequences 24

STATE OVERVIEW

Going into 2014, Ohio was expected to be a major battleground in the election cycle, particularly in state elections, with a key gubernatorial race and several potentially competitive down-ballot constitutional matchups. The anticipated matchup between Republican incumbent Governor John Kasich and Democratic Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races of 2014. Democrats also landed top-tier candidates for down- ballot statewide races; notably, state Senator Nina Turner and state Representative Connie Pillich launched bids for secretary of state and treasurer, respectively.1

Democrats were presented with fewer opportunities at the congressional and legislative level in 2014. The 2010 decennial redistricting process, which Republicans controlled, locked in safe districts for many Republican incumbents, leaving only a small number of competitive congressional and General Assembly districts.2 OH-14 and OH-06, represented by Republican incumbents David Joyce and Bill Johnson, respectively, are potentially competitive districts, but they did not attract significant competition in 2014. As a testament to the lack of competitive races in Ohio, 4.4 times as many broadcast TV ads aired in U.S. House races in the neighboring state of West Virginia, which has 13 fewer congressional seats.3 At the legislative level, a handful of state Senate races were targeted, notably SD-03, SD-05, and SD-13, where Republican incumbents Kevin Bacon, Bill Beagle and Gayle Manning were all running in districts that Obama carried in 2012.4

Going back to 2011, when labor and progressive groups successfully batted back SB 5, anti-public sector union legislation, Kasich emerged as one of the most unpopular governors in the country, and Ohio’s unemployment rate hovered above 8%.5 However, Democrats’ optimism was tempered by mid-summer 2014, as FitzGerald’s gubernatorial campaign foundered amid unflattering personal revelations, and Kasich was able to leverage Ohio’s improving economy to bolster his case for a second term.6 In the once-promising down-ballot statewide races, only Connie Pillich, running against incumbent Republican Josh Mandel in the race for state treasurer, went into Election Day within striking distance in the polls.7

On election night, the momentum that had been building against Democrats all year came to a head; Kasich and the full slate of Republican constitutional officeholders won re-election, with the incumbent governor defeating challenger Ed FitzGerald by more than thirty points, 64% to 33%. Of the statewide Democratic candidates, only Pillich won more than 40% of the vote, falling 43% to 57% to Mandel. Ohio’s U.S. House delegation remained static, with Republicans moving forward with a 12-4 partisan composition advantage in the 114th Congress. In the legislature, Republicans increased their majority in the state House from 60 to 65; included among the losing Democratic legislators was Chris Redfern, chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, who resigned from that position on election night.8 The partisan composition in the state Senate remained unchanged, 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats.9

1 Sean Sullivan and Aaron Blake, “The Fix’s top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014,” Washington Post, November 15, 2013. 2 Griff Palmer and Michael Cooper, “How Maps Helped Republicans Keep an Edge in the House,” New York Times, December 14, 2012. 3 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 4 “Daily Kos Elections’ 2012 election results by congressional and legislative districts,” Daily Kos, May 20, 2014. 5 “Senate Bill 5 headed for resounding defeat Tuesday,” Public Policy Polling, 1,022 likely voters, MoE ±3.1%, November 4–6, 2011; “Local Area Unemployment Statistics – Ohio,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed October 27, 2014. 6 Aaron Blake, “The remarkable implosion of Ed FitzGerald,” Washington Post, August 29, 2014; Bob Sandrick, “John Kasich touts economic growth and balanced state budget during campaign stop in Strongsville,” Cleveland.com, August 6, 2014. 7 “GOP candidates appear to be locks,” Columbus Dispatch, 1,009 likely voters, MoE ±3.3%, October 22–31, 2014. 8 Jeremy Pelzer, “Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern loses House seat,” Cleveland.com, November 4, 2014. 9 Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014.

Ohio 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % GOP % Party % % Margin OH-01 Fred Kundrata Steve Chabot R 36.5% 63.5% - -27.0% Marek OH-02 Brad Wenstrup R 33.9% 66.1% - -32.2% Tyszkiewicz OH-03 Joyce Betty John Adams D 63.9% 36.1% - 27.8% OH-04 Janet Garrett Jim Jordan R 32.2% 67.8% - -35.6% OH-05 Robert Fry Bob Latta R 28.8% 66.6% 4.6% -37.8% OH-06 Jennifer Garrison Bill Johnson R 38.6% 58.2% 3.2% -19.6% OH-07 N/A Bob Gibbs R - 100.0% - -100.0% OH-08 Tom Poetter John Boehner R 27.3% 67.3% 5.4% -40.0% OH-09 Marcy Kaptur Richard May D 67.7% 32.3% - 35.4% OH-10 Robert Klepinger Mike Turner R 31.3% 65.4% 3.3% -34.1% OH-11 Marcia Fudge Mark Zetzer D 79.2% 20.8% - 58.4% OH-12 David Tibbs Pat Tiberi R 27.7% 68.2% 4.1% -40.5% OH-13 Tim Ryan Thomas Pekarek D 68.5% 31.5% - 37.0% OH-14 Michael Wager David Joyce R 33.0% 63.3% 3.7% -30.3% OH-15 Scott Wharton Steve Stivers R 33.9% 66.1% - -32.2% OH-16 Pete Crossland Jim Renacci R 36.2% 63.8% - -27.6% Governor Ed FitzGerald John Kasich R 32.9% 63.8% 3.3% -30.9% Attorney General David Pepper Mike DeWine R 38.3% 61.7% - -23.4% John Patrick Auditor Dave Yost R 38.1% 57.2% 4.7% -19.1% Carney Secretary of Nina Turner Jon Husted R 35.3% 60.1% 4.6% -24.8% State Treasurer Connie Pillich Josh Mandel R 43.3% 56.7% - -13.4% State Senate 10 seats 23 seats R 10 D 23 R - No change State House 39 seats 60 seats R 34 65 - R+5 Sources: “2014 Post Election Governors & Partisan Splits,” Stateside Associates, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:43 p.m; “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m

REGISTRATION OVERVIEW Ohio is not a party registration state, and party ID is not available on the state voter file. Below is total statewide voter registration by federal election cycle.

Through Election Day, total registration in Ohio was 7,748,201. This is a ten-year low and a drop of more than 500,000 registrants from peak levels in 2008.10

10 “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014.

Ohio Voter Registration by Party Date Total November 2004 7,972,826 November 2006 7,860,052 November 2008 8,287,665 November 2010 8,037,806 November 2012 7,987,203 November 2014 7,748,201 Change Since 2004 -224,625 Sources: “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS Historically, turnout in Ohio has exceeded the national average. The number of voters casting ballots in Ohio peaked with 2008’s presidential election, but it barely exceeded the voting-eligible population’s (VEP) turnout rate from 2004.11 In 2010, Democrats experienced a large drop-off among key demographic groups and in historically high-performing areas. Compared to 2008, turnout in the 2012 election fell by over two points.12

In 2014, according to initial numbers, VEP turnout in Ohio fell significantly from 2010 state numbers and dropped below the national average for this cycle. In 2010, with the closely contested gubernatorial matchup between incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland and John Kasich, VEP turnout in Ohio was 44.9%, a full four points above the national average. In 2014, without a competitive top- of-the-ticket race, turnout fell to 36.2%, just below the national average of 36.6%.13

Ohio VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 8,513,079 5,698,260 66.9% 61.6% 2010 8,572,548 3,852,453 44.9% 40.9% 2012 8,648,932 5,580,822 64.5% 58.6% 2014* 8,700,170 3,150,000 36.2% 36.6% Difference from 2010 127,622 -702,453 -8.7% -4.3% Difference from 2012 51,238 -2,430,822 -28.3% -22.0% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014.

* 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Individual county boards of elections in Ohio are responsible for reporting absentee vote returns. As a result, absentee vote data reporting practices vary across counties.14 Early and absentee voting

11 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 12 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed October 22, 2014. 13 “Voter Turnout,” U.S. Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 14 “Voting Absentee by Mail,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed October 27, 2014.

have become more popular over recent election cycles, especially in midterm elections. Approximately 25% of the electorate voted early or absentee in 2010, down from 30.2% in 2008, but up from 16.9% in 2006 and 10.6% in 2004. In 2012, fully one-third of voters cast their ballots by either mail or early in-person voting.

In 2014, early voting was a contentious issue in Ohio. In February, Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted eliminated Sunday early voting for the two weeks preceding Election Day. The decision on Sunday early voting eliminated “Souls to the Polls” efforts, an effort undertaken across the country ahead of Election Day to organize churchgoers to vote after Sunday services.15 However, after a series of legal challenges, filed by the ACLU on behalf of the NAACP, League of Women Voters, and local church groups, early voting was reinstated for the two Saturdays before Election Day and on the Sunday before Election Day.16

As of November 7, absentee and early vote numbers are not yet available from the Ohio Secretary of State.17

Ohio Method of Vote In- Total Absentee/Early % % In Year Person Votes Votes Absentee/Early Person Votes

2006 4,185,597 639,416 15.3% 3,546,181 84.7% 2008 5,773,777 1,717,256 29.7% 4,056,521 70.3% 2010 3,956,045 1,017,628 25.7% 2,938,417 74.3% 2012 5,632,423 1,862,984 33.1% 3,769,439 66.9% 2014 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Difference N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A from 2010 Difference N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A from 2012 Source: “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed September 16, 2013.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS Ohio is a large and diverse state; beyond must-win localities, such as Cuyahoga County (and the county seat of Cleveland), running for office in Ohio requires targeted electoral strategies for an array of cities, counties and regions.

The Cuyahoga region, which includes deeply Democratic Cuyahoga County and the swing area of Lake County, is a critical region for Democrats, and successful statewide campaigns must run up a large margin of victory here. In 2012, Obama’s margin of victory in this region was 33.5 percentage points, and Sherrod Brown won by 36.0 percentage points; however, in 2010, Ted Strickland’s 19.3 point margin wasn’t enough to overcome Republicans’ performance in the rest of the state.18

15 Jeremy Pelzer, “Husted sets statewide early-voting hours for general election; Sundays not included,” Cleveland.com, February 25, 2014. 16 Jackie Borchardt, “Eric Holder denounces Ohio early voting cuts,” Cleveland.com, October 6, 2014; Jackie Borchardt, “Supreme Court blocks early voting in Ohio,” Cleveland.com, September 29, 2014. 17 Atlas interview with Ohio Secretary of State representative. 18 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/27/14.

In Central and Northeast Ohio, the state’s two largest regions, successful statewide Democrats typically win a narrow majority. In 2010, Strickland lost the two regions with 46.4% and 46.7%, but in 2012, Obama and Brown won Northeast Ohio with 51.5% and 51.6%, respectively, and won Central Ohio with 53.1% and 52.9%. In more conservative areas of the state, such as the Miami Valley and Southwest Ohio, successful statewide Democrats aim to limit their losses to at or above 42%. In 2012, both Obama and Brown were able to stay at or above 42% in the Miami Valley and Southwest Ohio, a threshold Strickland was unable to hit in 2010.

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS In 2014, Governor John Kasich, Secretary of State Jon Husted and Republicans in the legislature launched a full-on assault on voting rights in Ohio. The changes, which were implemented through legislative action and by directive from Husted, limited early voting and restricted absentee voting, programs favored by minority and working voters.19

Senate Bill 238 eliminated the so-called “Golden Week” in Ohio, during which residents could register to vote early and cast an absentee in-person ballot in one visit. A second bill, Senate Bill 205, prohibits individual county boards of election from sending out unsolicited absentee ballot applications. Instead, absentee ballots will be distributed statewide if the legislature appropriates funds.20

In February 2014, Husted eliminated Sunday early voting in Ohio for the two weeks preceding Election Day. However, after a series of legal challenges, early voting was reinstated for the two Saturdays before Election Day and the last Sunday before Election Day, which allowed for “Souls to the Polls” efforts.21

EXIT POLLING

RACE

At the statewide level, Ohio is relatively homogenous; the white voting age population (VAP) is 83.5%, African Americans are the largest minority group in the state, constituting 11.2% of the VAP, while Hispanics make up 2.4% of the VAP.22 Ohio’s urban areas — Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, and others — include most of the African American and other minority populations.

In 2010, and again in 2012, African Americans made up a slightly disproportionate share of the electorate, making up 15% of general election voters in both cycles. Since Obama’s election in 2008, African American support has overwhelmingly consolidated behind Democrats. By comparison, in 2006, Strickland won “only” 77% of the African American vote, a significant share, but 20 points below Obama’s performance two years later. In 2010, Strickland improved his performance with

19 Robert Higgs, “Kasich signs voting bills that end Golden Week and limit distribution of absentee ballots,” Cleveland.com, February 21, 2014. 20 Robert Higgs, “Kasich signs voting bills that end Golden Week and limit distribution of absentee ballots,” Cleveland.com, February 21, 2014. 21 Jackie Borchardt, “Eric Holder denounces Ohio early voting cuts,” Cleveland.com, October 6, 2014; Jackie Borchardt, “Supreme Court blocks early voting in Ohio,” Cleveland.com, September 29, 2014. 22 2010 Decennial Census: Ohio, U.S. Census Bureau, accessed September 30, 2013.

African Americans, winning 90% of their vote, but it wasn’t enough to offset a 20-point drop in support among white voters, from 58% in 2006 to 38% in 2010.23

In 2014, consistent with his weak performance across the board, Ed FitzGerald saw a significant decline in support with both African American and white voters. Compared to 2010, FitzGerald underperformed Ted Strickland with white voters by 14 points, winning just 24% of this demographic in 2014. In recent statewide elections, successful and losing Democratic candidates alike have exceeded 85% support with African American voters; however, in 2014, African American voters supported FitzGerald with just 69% of the vote.24

According to exit polls, the white vote share dropped slightly to 78% and the African American vote share ticked up to 16% in 2014.25

Ohio Performance and Vote Share by Race Obama Strickland Brown Obama FitzGerald Race 2008 2010 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 46% 38% 43% 41% 24% African 97% 90% 95% 96% 69% American Hispanic - - 51% 54% - Asian - - - - - Other - - - - - Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 83% 80% 80% 79% 78% African 11% 15% 15% 15% 16% American Hispanic 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% Asian 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Other 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% Sources: “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

GENDER

The Ohio electorate’s gender composition has remained stable over recent election cycles, with women making up a small majority, 51%-53%, of general election voters.

Until 2012, exit polling showed that the gender gap in Ohio had been consistent but small, when compared to national exit polling. In 2008, male support for Obama in Ohio was just two percentage points lower than female support; this exploded to a 10-percentage point gap in 2012. This divide expands when looking at single women; this demographic supported Obama with 66% of the vote in 2012.26 In 2010, Strickland’s support with women dropped 14 points, from 63% to 49%, illustrating

23 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 24 “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010. 25 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 26 “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012.

the challenge for statewide Democrats when they fail to win at least a small majority of female voters.27

In 2014, Ed FitzGerald’s support with both women and men dropped significantly from other recent statewide Democratic campaigns. In absolute terms, FitzGerald lost more ground with men (-16 points) than women (-12 points) when comparing to Strickland in 2010; but, when comparing to Obama in 2012, FitzGerald lost more ground with women (-18 points) than men (-16 points).28

Looking at vote share, women were a narrow minority of the electorate in 2014, after making up 51- 52% of the electorate in recent election cycles.29

Ohio Performance and Vote Share by Gender

Obama Strickland Brown Obama FitzGerald Gender 2008 2010 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 53% 49% 56% 55% 37% Men 51% 45% 48% 45% 29% Vote Share by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 52% 52% 51% 52% 49% Men 48% 48% 49% 48% 51% Sources: “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

UNION MEMBERSHIP

While union households are an important Democratic constituency in many states, they are critical in Ohio. In 2013, Ohio had more than 600,000 union workers; 12.7% of workers were in unions, and 14.1% of the workforce was covered by a collective bargaining agreement.30

Union households backed Ted Strickland, who ran a populist campaign, with 70% of the vote in 2006.31 In 2010, Strickland’s support among union households dropped five points to 65% -- much smaller than his overall decline in support, but still significant. Obama’s support among union households increased from 2008 to 2012, 56% to 60%, likely as a result of the campaign’s economic messaging and Labor’s organizing groundwork done to repeal the anti-union SB 5 in 2011.

In 2014, Ed FitzGerald lost union households outright, earning just 42% of the vote with this demographic that made up 21% of the electorate. In recent election cycles, successful Democrats like Brown and Obama, as well as unsuccessful Democrats like Strickland in 2010, reached 60% support with union household voters.32

27 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 28 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 29 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 30 Barry Hirsch and David Macpherson, “Union Membership, Coverage, Density and Employment by State, 2013,” UnionStats.com, accessed November 5, 2014. 31 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 32 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

When examining the 2014 election cycle and Ohio’s labor community, it is noteworthy that exit polls showed support for public-sector unions was slightly underwater in the state. Forty-eight percent of voters expressed an unfavorable opinion of public-sector unions while 46% indicated a favorable opinion.33 This is a departure from 2011, when voters batted back SB 5 by a margin of 62% to 38%.34

Ohio Performance and Vote Share by Union Affiliation Union Obama Strickland Brown Obama FitzGerald Affiliation 2008 2010 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Union Affiliation (Exit Polls) Union 58% - - - - Member Union 56% 65% 62% 60% 42% Household Vote Share by Union Affiliation (Exit Polls) Union 15% - - - - Member Union 28% 26% 22% 22% 21% Household Sources: “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

PARTISANSHIP (SELF-ID)

In states without party registration, such as Ohio, exit polls show the fluidity of partisan self- identification.35 Self-identified Democrats peaked at 40% in 2006, falling to 36% in the 2010 midterm election before returning to the 10-year average of 38% in 2012. Between 2004 and 2010, self- identified Democrats consistently voted for Democratic candidates within a very narrow range, with Strickland’s performances bracketing the results, 92% in 2006 to 89% in 2010.36 In 2012, Obama exceeded this range of support with self-identified Democrats, winning 93%.

Independents typically account for most of the swing in actual vote preference among voters, a fact best illustrated by the difference in Strickland’s 2006 and 2010 performances. In 2006, Strickland carried 69% of independents, while in 2010 he won just 37% of independents—a drop of 32 percentage points.37 Between the same elections, support for Strickland fell just three points among Democrats and nine points among Republicans.

33 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 34 “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 35 “Frequently Asked Questions about General Voting and Voter Registration.” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed October 1, 2013. 36 “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2003; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 37 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006.

In 2014, Ed FitzGerald’s support with both Democratic and independent voters was staggeringly low, and overall Democratic self-identification tumbled to 32%, six points below 2012. Self-identifying independents stayed relatively static, increasing only one percentage point from 2012, indicating that the shift in partisan self-identification was from Democratic to Republican in 2014.38

Ohio Performance and Vote Share by Party ID Obama Strickland Brown Obama FitzGerald Party ID 2008 2010 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 89% 89% 92% 93% 71% Republican 8% 11% 7% 5% 4% Independent 52% 37% 46% 43% 26% Share of Vote by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 39% 36% 38% 38% 32% Republican 31% 36% 31% 31% 36% Independent 30% 28% 31% 31% 32% Sources: “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

AGE

In recent election cycles, young voters in Ohio (ages 18-29) have favored Democratic candidates. However, in midterm election cycles, such as 2010, the youth vote share has dropped significantly compared to presidential years, down to 12%-13%. Meanwhile, Ohio’s electorate is aging (voters 65+) and their support for Democrats is stagnating.

In 2010, Strickland still managed to win a majority of young voters, 53%, although this represented a six-point drop in support from 2006.39 Democrats increased their support among young voters in 2012, with Obama winning 63% and Brown 64%; both candidates also matched their 2008 and 2006 support with the 30-44 demographic, winning 51% and 52% respectively.40

In 2014, FitzGerald’s support dropped with all age demographics when compared to Obama or Sherrod Brown in 2012, including by more than 20 points with young voters. Curiously, FitzGerald matched Strickland’s support with 30- to 44-year-olds, while losing all other age demographics by double digits.41

The youth vote, consistent with midterm elections, dropped off from 2012 (and 2010) to 10% in 2014. Also, like the country as a whole, the vote share of older voters surged in Ohio; when aggregating the 45+ vote, these voters made up 71% of the electorate in 2014, compared to 59% in 2012 and 65% in 2010.42

It is important to note that, tracking across the previous three federal election cycles, there has been a sharp divide in nationwide Democratic performance among young voters, falling along racial lines.

38 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 39 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 40 “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 7, 2006. 41 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m. 42 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

In national exit polls of the last three federal election cycles, Democratic performance with young minority voters has remained consistently high, while over the same span, national Democratic performance with young white voters has dropped in successive cycles, down from 54% in 2008 to 45% in 2010, 44% in 2012, and 43% in 2014.43 It is likely that the historical strength of the youth vote in Ohio is, in part, attributable to this trend.

Ohio Performance and Vote Share by Age Obama Strickland Brown Obama FitzGerald Age 2008 2010 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 61% 53% 64% 63% 41% 30–44 51% 44% 52% 51% 44% 45–64 53% 46% 49% 47% 30% 65+ 44% 48% 46% 44% 26% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 17% 12% 17% 17% 10% 30–44 27% 23% 24% 24% 19% 45–64 39% 48% 41% 41% 48% 65+ 17% 17% 18% 18% 23% Sources: “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Ohio President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014, accessed November 5 at 2:00 p.m.

GOVERNOR

Going into the cycle, the gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent John Kasich and Democratic Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald was expected to be a top-tier contest. Kasich was regularly listed as one of the most vulnerable incumbents ahead of 2014, and Democrats were preparing to launch an aggressive campaign to take back the office that Kasich won by a mere two points in 2010.44 Kasich’s support bottomed out during the SB 5 fight in 2011, when the labor community and progressive groups successfully repealed restrictions on collective bargaining for public-sector workers through a statewide ballot measure.45

However, Democrats’ early enthusiasm was tempered after a number of personal and professional missteps. First, in December 2013, lieutenant governor choice Eric Kearney dropped out after a series of tax irregularities surfaced. Later, FitzGerald’s campaign foundered amid unflattering personal revelations, and Kasich was able to move past SB 5 and leverage Ohio’s improving economy to bolster his case for a second term.46 The race was effectively ceded in August 2014,

43 Surbhi Godsay, Amanda Nover, and Emily Kirby, “The Minority Youth Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, October 2010; “Young Voters in the 2010 Elections,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, November 17, 2010; “National President Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 6, 2012; “National House Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 7, 2014, at 11:48 p.m. 44 Sean Sullivan and Aaron Blake, “The Fix’s top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014,” Washington Post, November 15, 2013; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/27/14. 45 “Senate Bill 5 headed for resounding defeat Tuesday,” Public Policy Polling, 1,022 likely voters, MoE ±3.1%, November 4–6, 2011. 46 Bob Sandrick, “John Kasich touts economic growth and balanced state budget during campaign stop in Strongsville,” Cleveland.com, August 6, 2014.

after the FitzGerald campaign underwent a major personnel reshuffle and transferred the bulk of its funds to the state party.47

Given the early recognition that the election was out of reach, Democratic and progressive groups looked past the Ohio governor’s race in 2014. So dramatic was the dearth of activity in the governor’s race, by October the cost of advertising time in Ohio had dropped to half of stations’ initial planning rates, and the cost of airtime was 10-15% below 2010 prices.48

Ohio Governor 2014 Public Polling

Ohio Governor Polling Accuracy FitzGerald Kasich Pollster Dates Sample % % YouGov 10/16–10/23 2728 LVs 35% 54% Columbus Dispatch 10/22–10/31 1009 LVs 34% 62% FOX News 10/28–10/30 803 LVs 36% 51% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 35.0% 55.7% Final Results N/A N/A 32.9% 63.8% Difference N/A N/A -2.1% 8.1% Sources: “Ohio Governor - Kasich vs. FitzGerald,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m.

On Election Day, the governor’s race, which started with promise for Democrats, ended in what had become an inevitable defeat. Statewide, Kasich carried Ohio by a margin of 63.8% to 32.9%, a performance that may have buoyed his known presidential ambitions.49 Kasich won nearly every county in Ohio, including Democrats’ (and FitzGerald’s) base of Cuyahoga County, where Kasich

47 Karen Kasler, “Two Top Aides Leave Fitzgerald Campaign, More Changes Possible,” WOSU, August 19, 2014; Chrissie Thompson, “Ed FitzGerald's campaign money going to party turnout,” Cincinnati Enquirer, August 22, 2014. 48 Randy Ludlow, “Campaign TV spots: It’s a buyer’s market in Ohio,” Columbus Dispatch, October 14, 2014. 49 Amanda Harnocz, “Voters react to Gov. John Kasich's decisive victory; speculate about presidential run in 2016,” Cleveland.com, November 4, 2014.

over-performed his own 2010 results by 16 points.50 Ultimately, the end result of the race was not a surprise; however, Kasich’s margin of victory was larger than any pre-election poll had predicted.

Ohio Governor 2014 Results Registered Total FitzGerald FitzGerald Kasich Kasich Other Other % Voters Voters Votes % Votes % Votes 7,748,201 3,011,052 989,201 32.9% 1,922,436 63.8% 99,415 3.3% Sources: “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

The abortive governor’s race in Ohio produced a dramatic drop in broadcast advertising when compared to 2010, and the impact on airtime affected races up and down the ballot. In 2010, incumbent Governor Ted Strickland, challenger John Kasich, and a wide array of coordinated and independent expenditure groups ran a combined 57,361, broadcast ads.51 In 2014, the number of broadcast ads dropped to just over 21,000 spots, at an estimated cost of $10.2 million.52 The demand for advertising time in Ohio was so diminished that by October, the cost of airtime had dropped to half of stations’ initial planning rates and 10-15% below 2010 prices.53

Not only was the absolute volume of broadcast advertising down in the governor’s race, but also the number of groups airing ads, both coordinated and outside groups, dropped off precipitously in 2014. In 2010, the number of broadcast advertising sponsors, which included the candidates, the national governors associations (and groups they funded), and labor unions, came to 11.54 In 2014, the number of sponsors dropped to four (excluding two groups that aired a total of three spots), and when counting sponsors who aired ads after August, this number dropped further to two: the Kasich ticket and the Republican Governors Association.55

50 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m; Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 11/05/14. 51 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 52 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 53 Randy Ludlow, “Campaign TV spots: It’s a buyer’s market in Ohio,” Columbus Dispatch, October 14, 2014. 54 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 55 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Ohio Governor Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1, 2014 – November 4, 2014

Ohio Governor Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1, 2014 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

As a way of quantifying messaging analysis, Atlas utilized CMAG issue tags to measure the paid media messaging in key races. It is important to note that this analysis quantifies the share of issue messaging across all broadcast advertising in a race, and it is not a reflection of the percentage of ads that featured one type of issue messaging or another.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging

Issue Democrat Republican Total

Health Care 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% Education 15.0% 2.0% 3.7% Economy 47.5% 85.4% 80.5% Other 37.5% 9.4% 13.0% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

In the governor’s race, the major issue focused on in broadcast advertising was the economy, accounting for roughly half of Democratic messaging and more than 80% of Republican messaging. However, it is worth noting that a majority of total spots ran after the race had been effectively ceded to Kasich in late August. The FitzGerald campaign did run two ads for the cycle, with both contrasting his advocacy for the middle class with Kasich’s support for the wealthy. Kasich used broadcast advertising to tout Ohio’s economic growth under his administration, citing the creation of 250,000 new jobs in the state since he took office. The Kasich campaign also touched on women’s health in broadcast advertising, using a testimonial from a female doctor to highlight Kasich’s increase in funding for cancer screenings and indirectly referencing Medicaid expansion.56

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS In order to win statewide in Ohio, successful Democrats run up large margins in the Cuyahoga region, typically at least 65% of the vote, similarly dominate in the Mahoning Valley, win pluralities in Northeast and Central Ohio, and remain competitive in the remainder of the state. However, in 2014, John Kasich outperformed Ed FitzGerald across Ohio, winning every region and carrying all but two counties: Athens and Monroe in Southeast Ohio.57

In the Cuyahoga region, where Obama won 66% of the vote in 2012 and Strickland took 58% in 2010, FitzGerald managed just 42%. In the state’s two largest regions of Central and Northeast Ohio, where successful Democrats typically win a slim majority and Strickland fell a few points short of 50% in 2010, FitzGerald managed just 33% and 32%, respectively. FitzGerald exceeded 40% in only one other region, the Mahoning Valley, where the campaign won 42% of the vote, approximately 20 points below Obama in 2012 and Strickland in 2010.58

56 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 57 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m. 58 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m; Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 11/05/14.

Looking at statewide and regional Republican performance over the last ten years, Kasich’s win can only be compared to George Voinovich in 2004, the last top-of-the-ticket Republican to break 60% statewide and carry the Cuyahoga region.59

FitzGerald 2014 Performance by County

59 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m; Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 11/05/14.

SECRETARY OF STATE

In 2014, Democratic state Senator Nina Turner challenged Republican incumbent Jon Husted in the secretary of state’s race. Husted has been a lightning rod figure in the state and at the national level. In the 2012 election, Husted generated controversy with his efforts to limit early voting hours.60 U.S. District Judge Algenon Marbley described Husted’s efforts as a flagrant “violation of state elections law” in an effort to prevent counting of provisional ballots.61 In both instances, Democrats successfully challenged Husted’s directives in federal court.62 These actions spurred Democrats to put a priority on this race in 2014, and the Democratic and progressive communities consolidated behind Turner after she announced her intention to run for the office in July 2013.63 In 2010, Husted defeated Maryellen O’Shaughnessy by a 12-point margin, after outraising the Democrat by a five-to- one margin.64

Drawing upon lessons learned from past overlooked and underfunded down-ballot constitutional efforts, Democrats indicated they would marshal significant resources behind Turner’s campaign in 2014. However, for the cycle, Husted raised $3.9 million to Turner’s $1.2 million. This was an improvement on the ratio of fundraising dollars from 2010, but in absolute terms Turner raised just a little over $100,000 more than O’Shaughnessy.65 Husted leveraged this fundraising advantage to run an aggressive broadcast advertising campaign. For the cycle, Husted ran just under 4,800 spots, airing ads across all of Ohio’s major media markets and some secondary and spill markets.66 Turner ran a more limited broadcast advertising campaign, airing 770 spots, focused on the major markets of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati.67

Turner’s campaign gained support from across the Democratic, labor, and progressive communities and had the backing of a new PAC, SoS for Democracy, which was formed to support Democratic secretary of state candidates in targeted states.68 Former President Bill Clinton did a mail piece for Turner in September, in which he criticized Husted and state Republicans for attacking voting rights and endorsed Turner as protector of these rights.69 Turner won the endorsement of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which cited Husted’s manipulation of Ohio’s early-voting laws as a disqualifying offense for a second term.70 However, the reliably conservative Columbus Dispatch editorial board endorsed Husted, choosing to characterize the incumbent as an adept elections administrator, lauding him for his “steadfast push to improve voting rules and his string of smoothly run elections.”71

On Election Day, Turner was unable to overcome the entrenched disadvantages facing Democrats in Ohio this cycle, losing to Husted by a margin of 35% to 60%.72 The Election Day results were

60 Alan Johnson, “Supreme Court rejects Husted’s early voting appeal,” The Columbus Dispatch, Oct. 16, 2012. 61 Joe Guillen, “Federal judge rips Jon Husted for unconstitutional change to Ohio election rules,” The Plain Dealer, Nov. 13, 2012. 62 “Husted, DeWine must accept federal voting-rights rulings, end pointless appeals: editorial,” Cleveland.com, September 26, 2014. 63 Henry J. Gomez, “Nina Turner announces bid for Ohio secretary of state; Democrat hopes to unseat Jon Husted,” Cleveland.com, July 1, 2013. 64 “Campaign Finance” and “2010 Elections Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed December 11, 2013; “State Overview – Ohio 2010,” National Institute on Money in State Politics, accessed October 21, 2014. 65 “State Overview – Ohio 2014,” National Institute on Money in State Politics, accessed October 21, 2014; “State Overview – Ohio 2010,” National Institute on Money in State Politics, accessed October 21, 2014. 66 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 67 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 68 Jackie Borchardt, “National groups pledge to spend millions on secretary of state races in Ohio, other battleground states,” Cleveland.com, March 4, 2014. 69 Ann Sanner, “Ohio Secretary of State race gets Bill Clinton’s attention,” Associated Press, September 18, 2014; Henry J. Gomez, “Ohio secretary of state hopeful Nina Turner to get direct mail assist from former President Bill Clinton,” Cleveland.com, September 5, 2014. 70 “Nina Turner for Ohio secretary of state: endorsement editorial,” Cleveland.com, October 14, 2014. 71 “For secretary of state, treasurer,” Columbus Dispatch, September 28, 2014. 72 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m.

generally representative of the last poll in the race, where the Columbus Dispatch found the incumbent Husted with a 21-point lead, 58% to 37%.73

Ohio Secretary of State 2014 Results Registered Total Turner Turner Husted Husted Other Other % Voters Voters Votes % Votes % Votes 7,748,201 2,982,381 1,052,719 35.3% 1,791,212 60.1% 138,450 4.6% Sources: “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m

In 2010, Jon Husted aired over 7,500 broadcast advertising spots, and Maryellen O’Shaughnessy ran fewer than 1,500 spots.74 In 2014, with a somewhat smaller fundraising disadvantage for Democrats, Nina Turner ran 770 total spots for an estimated $556,200, and Husted ran 4,776 spots for an estimated $2.1 million. Husted began airing broadcast advertising in September, with the campaign increasing the volume of spots throughout October. The Turner campaign, as well as SEIU Local 1999, which ran 293 spots at an estimated cost of $155,920, began airing ads in October.75

The Husted campaign leveraged its resources to air a broadcast media campaign across Ohio, reaching 96.7% of the statewide electorate.76 The largest number of Husted ads ran in Cleveland, the biggest market in the state, with 1,003 total ads over the course of the cycle. Turner and SEIU 1199 focused their broadcast media efforts in Ohio’s largest and most urban markets, running spots across the Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus and Dayton markets.77

73 “GOP candidates appear to be locks,” Columbus Dispatch, 1,009 likely voters, MoE ±3.3%, October 22–31, 2014. 74 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 75 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 76 Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 10/24/14. 77 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Ohio Secretary of State Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, January 1, 2014 – November 4, 2014

Ohio Secretary of State Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, January 1, 2014 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging

Issue Democrat Republican Total

Education 10.8% 0.0% 2.9% Economy 89.2% 68.7% 74.3% Other 0.0% 31.3% 22.8% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

In the secretary of state’s race, the major issue in limited broadcast advertising was the economy. The Husted campaign, which ran more than six times as many broadcast spots as the Turner campaign, highlighted the incumbent’s record as secretary of state, including his work on behalf of military voters (which fell within the “other” category), and criticized Nina Turner’s voting record on issues like taxes.78

The Turner campaign ran one broadcast ad in the race, which highlighted Turner’s voting rights advocacy and contrasted her record with Husted’s. SEIU Local 1999 ran one broadcast ad that contrasted Turner’s work on behalf of the middle class with Husted’s support for the rich and special interests.79

78 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 79 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Consistent with the traditional path to victory outlined above and Democrats’ struggles in statewide elections in 2014, Nina Turner also fell short across Ohio, with the exception of the Cuyahoga region, her home base. In Cuyahoga, Turner carried a seven-point edge over Husted, 52% to 45%. However, outside of the Cuyahoga region, Turner only broke 40% in one other region, the Mahoning Valley, also the site of FitzGerald’s best regional performance.80

Turner 2014 Performance by County

80 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m.

STATE LEGISLATURE

Going into the 2014 election, Republicans held supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature.81 Republicans have maintained a consistent advantage in the partisan composition of the state Senate, never falling below 21 of the chamber’s 33 members since 2004. In the state House, Democrats briefly gained control of the chamber after the 2008 cycle, only to lose it in 2010 when Republicans picked up thirteen seats. In 2014, Democrats did not have a realistic chance of regaining a majority in either chamber; however, individual districts presented pickup or incumbent defense opportunities.

For the cycle, the Ohio Democratic Party raised several million dollars and contributed funds to individual legislative campaigns, as well as the House Democratic Caucus and Ohio Senate Democrats.82 For their part, the state Republican Party also raised millions of dollars and contributed to individual legislative campaigns and the party’s respective legislative campaign committees.83 Party committee funds helped finance, among other things, broadcast media expenditures on behalf of legislative candidates.84

On Election Day, Republicans increased their majority in the state House from 60 to 65, leaving Democrats with 34 seats in the chamber. In the state Senate, the partisanship remained unchanged, 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats.85

STATE SENATE Ohio has 33 state Senate districts, with odd-numbered districts on the ballot in 2014. Going into the 2014 election, Republicans held a 23-to-10 majority in the upper chamber.86 Out of the 17 seats up in 2014, seven seats were held by Democrats, and Republicans held the remaining 10. Four incumbents were either termed-out or chose not to run for re-election: Democrats Eric Kearney (SD- 09), Shirley Smith (SD-21), and Nina Turner (SD-25), and Republican Tim Schaffer (SD-31).87

In 2014, top pick-up targets for Democrats included SD-03, where Democrat Star Johnson challenged Republican incumbent Kevin Bacon, SD-05, where Democrat Dee Gillis took on Republican incumbent Bill Beagle, and SD-13, where Democrat Marcus Madison challenged Republican incumbent Gayle Manning.88 All three races featured broadcast advertising, including from the parties respective Senate campaign committees and outside groups.89 For the cycle, Ohio Senate Democrats and the Democratic-affiliated Coalition for Ohio’s Future ran 890 total broadcast spots. The Republican Senate Campaign Committee ran more than 5,800 spots, including for incumbents Bacon, Beagle and Manning, and Charlie Winburn in the open race to replace Eric Kearney in SD-09.90

On election night, Democrats were unable to pick up any seats in the state Senate, losing SD-03, SD-05, and SD-13 by double digits. However, Democrats did retain the seat vacated by Eric

81 “Governors & Partisan Splits 2014,” Stateside Associates, accessed October 29, 2014. 82 “Ohio Democratic Party – 2014,” National Institute for Money in State Politics, accessed November 5, 2014. 83 “Ohio Republican Party – 2014,” National Institute for Money in State Politics, accessed November 5, 2014. 84 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 85 Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014; “2014 Post Election Governors & Partisan Splits,” Stateside Associates, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:43 p.m. 86 “Governors & Partisan Splits 2014,” Stateside Associates, accessed October 29, 2014. 87 “What’s on the ballot,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 88 Ann Sanner, “TV spending in Ohio legislative contests increases,” Associated Press, October 9, 2014. 89 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 90 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Kearney, SD-09, where Democrat Cecil Thomas defeated Winburn by 14 points, 57% to 43%.91 For the cycle, the partisan composition of the state Senate remained unchanged, 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats.92

Historical Partisanship of Ohio State Senate93

23 23 23 22 20 21 21

15 12 12 11 Dem 10 10 10 GOP

Seats 10

0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

STATE HOUSE Ohio has 99 state House districts. All districts were on the ballot in 2014. Going into the 2014 election, Republicans held a 60-to-39 majority in the lower chamber.94 Excluding a brief stretch from 2008 to 2010, when Democrats’ held a 53-46 majority in the state House, Republicans have controlled the lower chamber of the General Assembly since 1995.95

Going into 2014, the most vulnerable Republican incumbents included Anthony DeVitis in southern Summit County’s HD-36, Terry Johnson in HD-90 in Southeast Ohio, term-limited Ross McGregor in Clark County’s HD-79, Andy Thompson in Appalachian HD-95, Mike Dovilla in the suburban Cleveland HD-7, and Al Landis south of Canton in HD-98. Two of these incumbents won by very small margins in 2012: Landis won by just 14 votes in a district with a DPI of 45.1%, while Dovilla’s 118 vote victory came in a 47.3% DPI district. DeVitis won re-election in 2012 by just 2,750 votes, and his district has a DPI of 52.2%, while Johnson’s district has a DPI of 49.9%, McGregor’s district has a DPI of 48.9% and Thompson’s is 46.9%. Other than the term-limited McGregor, all of these Republicans ran for re-election in 2014.96

On election night, Republicans increased their majority in the state House from 60 to 65; included among the defeated was Chris Redfern (HD-89), chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, who resigned from that position on election night.97 Democratic state representatives Nick Barborak (HD-05) and

91 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:36 a.m 92 Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014. 93 “State Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed November 6, 2014; Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014. 94 “Governors & Partisan Splits 2014,” Stateside Associates, accessed October 29, 2014. 95 “Vernal G. Riffe, Jr.,” CapitolWords, accessed November 3, 2014. 96 “Primary Election – May 6, 2014 (Democratic Results),” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed July 9, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, NCEC Data module, accessed 10/15/14. 97 Jeremy Pelzer, “Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern loses House seat,” Cleveland.com, November 4, 2014.

Roland Winburn (HD-43) were also defeated, while Republicans won open seats in HD-28 and HD- 55.98 Moving forward, the partisan composition of the state House will be 65 Republicans and 34 Democrats.99

Historical Partisanship of Ohio State House100

60 65 53 53 59 59 60 50 40 40 46 39 40 46 34 Dem 30 GOP Seats

0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

CONSEQUENCES It would be a mistake to interpret the 2014 election cycle as representative of a major shift in the political landscape in Ohio. Democrats, both statewide and at the legislative and local level, were running in a toxic environment brought on by mistakes in the top-of-the-ticket race and Kasich’s deft leveraging of Ohio’s economic recovery for his own political gain. However, there are some important takeaways to consider as Democrats look forward to 2016 in this crucial battleground state.

First, Kasich’s landmark performance has likely bolstered his case as a potential presidential candidate in 2016. Kasich, who undertook an abortive presidential campaign in 2000, has now won back-to-back statewide elections in Ohio, and he has developed a political profile that would endear himself to the pro-business, establishment wing of the Republican Party that emerged as one of the major winners of the 2014 election cycle.101

Secondly, looking introspectively, the Ohio Democratic Party will have to regroup after an exceptionally challenging election cycle. These challenges were personified, on election night, by the resignation of chair Chris Redfern after his loss in HD-89.102 On a more encouraging note, when taking into account the challenging political climate, Connie Pillich’s performance against Josh

98 Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014. 99 “2014 Post Election Governors & Partisan Splits,” Stateside Associates, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:43 p.m. 100 “State Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed November 6, 2014; Jeremy Pelzer, “Republicans win historic majority in Ohio House; keep solid majority in state Senate,” Cleveland.com, November 5, 2014. 101 Darrel Rowland and Jack Torry, “John Kasich, Rob Portman 'viable' candidates for 2016 presidential run,” Columbus Dispatch, November 5, 2014; Alex Altman, “How the Republican Establishment Got Its Groove Back,” Time, November 5, 2014. 102 Jeremy Pelzer, “Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern loses House seat,” Cleveland.com, November 4, 2014.

Mandel, outperforming all other statewide Democrats by at least five points, may be a prelude to a successful run for statewide office in the future.103

Finally, when examining the impact of the 2014 election cycle on Ohio’s labor community, it is important to note that exit polls showed support for public-sector unions was slightly underwater in the state. Forty-eight percent of voters expressed an unfavorable opinion of public-sector unions while 46% indicated a favorable opinion.104 This is a significant departure from 2011, when voters batted back anti-public sector union legislation through SB 5 by a margin of 62% to 38%.105

Ultimately, the 2014 election cycle presented many important lessons for Democrats in Ohio, albeit painful ones. Hopefully, Democrats can use the knowledge gained in this election to rebound at the state and national level in 2016.

103 “Ohio: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:15 a.m 104 “Ohio Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2014. 105 “Election Results,” Ohio Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014.