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Infrastructure Strategy 2018-2048

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Infrastructure Strategy 2018-2048 Infrastructure Strategy 2018-2048 Protecting our Communities VOLUME 2 Environment Southland 2018–2028 Long-term Plan June 2018 Publication No 2018-07 ISBN No 978-9-909043-29-2 1 This document has been prepared in accordance with s101B of the Local Government Act 2002 following guidance from publications “Dollars and Sense” – New Zealand Society of Local Government Managers and “Matters arising from the 2015-25 local authority long-term plans” – Controller and Auditor General. Approval Date and Date of Next Approved By MORF Related Scheduled Review Reference Standards Approved – 20 February 2018 Director of Operations A339983 - Adopted – 28 March 2018 Council Reviewed – 2 Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Purpose/Vision ................................................................................................................................ 5 3. Southland Context .......................................................................................................................... 6 4. Significant infrastructure issues, management options and implications ...................................... 7 4.1 Climate and Geographic issues ............................................................................................... 7 4.1.1 Climate ............................................................................................................................ 7 4.1.2 Catchments ..................................................................................................................... 8 4.1.3 Hazardscape .................................................................................................................. 11 4.1.4 Climate change and its impacts .................................................................................... 11 4.1.5 Options to manage climate and geographic issues ...................................................... 13 4.1.6 Adapting to Climate Change ......................................................................................... 14 4.2 Demographic issues ............................................................................................................. 16 4.2.1 Current demographics .................................................................................................. 16 4.2.2 Predicted demographic trends ..................................................................................... 17 4.2.3 Options to manage demographic issues ....................................................................... 19 4.3 Economic issues .................................................................................................................... 19 4.3.1 Current economic situation .......................................................................................... 19 4.3.2 Projected economic trends ........................................................................................... 20 4.3.3 Options to manage economic issues ............................................................................ 20 4.4 Stopbank upgrade issues ...................................................................................................... 20 4.4.1 Invercargill City stopbank upgrades .............................................................................. 20 4.4.2 Options to manage Invercargill City stopbank upgrades .............................................. 22 4.5 Lake Hawkins Pumping Station replacement ....................................................................... 23 5. Assumptions and capital expenditure drivers .................................................................................. 24 5.1 Performance over the next 10 years .................................................................................... 24 5.2 When should infrastructure be maintained, repaired, renewed ............................................... 24 5.3 Other Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 25 6. Most likely scenario ...................................................................................................................... 26 7. Financial forecasts of annual operating and capital expenditure ................................................. 28 8. Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 31 Appendix 8.1 - Inventory of Environment Southland owned and managed assets ...................... 32 Appendix 8.2 – Catchments showing floodable areas and infrastructure locations .................... 39 Appendix 8.3 – Potential Liquefaction Risk Areas ........................................................................ 43 Appendix 8.4 – Insurance and Reserve Policies ............................................................................ 44 3 1. Introduction Southland has enviable economic growth, strong social cohesion and excellent community services and facilities. Southland is a geographically diverse region, encompassing 12.5% of New Zealand’s landmass. With just over 2% of the population it has historically produced in excess of 15% of New Zealand’s tradable exports. The economic growth that has been achieved, especially in recent years, has bolstered the community and contributed to higher than average household incomes and employment. There remains in Southland considerable uncertainty about the future, including the sustainability of the few key industries supporting the regional economy and a population that is both ageing and projected to decrease. Mega trends such as urbanisation, demographic shifts and the impacts of climate change that have a global impact are particularly challenging for Southland and will have to be continually dealt with at national, regional and local levels beyond the 30year scope of this Strategy. The Southland Regional Development Strategy has highlighted that the projected depopulation of the area is the most concerning issue facing Southlanders. Depopulation also impacts Southland’s ability to construct, maintain and improve vital regional infrastructure in the face of increasing pressure from forces such as climate change. This strategy will explore how the region plans to manage its infrastructure responsibilities in a way that adapts to future challenges. Affordability and an ability to pay are questions that will have to be addressed by local government now and into the future as the rating based funding source for capital projects will likely prove unsustainable for Southland’s ratepayers against a backdrop of an ageing population. The connection between this Infrastructure Strategy and the Council’s Financial Strategy will become more critical if funding source options reduce or become less able to provide the level of funding required to maintain protection and reduce the flood risks to people, property and livelihoods. The inflation indices used previously were based on the Consumer Price Index but that has become irrelevant to the local government sector which provides specialised services. The latest inflation indices are produced by BERL specifically for New Zealand’s local government sector, through the Local Government Cost Index (LGCI). Rob Phillips Chief Executive 4 2. Purpose/Vision This Strategy has been prepared to give an account of, and forecast spending for, infrastructure in the Southland region within the direct control of Environment Southland. The vision for Environment Southland is simple - “a thriving Southland”. This strategy contributes directly to achieving this organisational vision by supporting sustainable communities. This strategy also sets a complementary and specific vision for the long-term management of regional infrastructure that is integrated with the broader organisational principles of risk management, efficiency and innovation. One of Environment Southland’s community outcomes is a commitment that our actions will lead to “more empowered and resilient communities” and this strategy is a key element in providing for community resilience through effective management of a regional flood protection system. Southland features a diverse range of interconnected ecosystems, from the alpine regions and forests of Fiordland to the eastern Southland plains. The unique geography and climate that makes Southland so appealing for a range of residents and visitors also makes it susceptible to significant flooding events. Over time, urban areas have been built alongside the rivers, agriculture has developed on flood plains, wetlands have been drained and native vegetation on the hills has been reduced, collectively adding to the flood risk. The primary infrastructure maintained by Environment Southland is the network of flood protection infrastructure comprising stopbanks, dams, bridges, culverts and tidegate structures that have been designed to reduce the impact of significant flooding events along the tributaries of the Aparima, Oreti, Makarewa, Waihopai, Mataura Rivers and Otepuni Stream, as well as other smaller waterways. The flood protection infrastructure maintained by Environment Southland works in combination with other similar assets (stormwater etc) managed by the three local territorial councils in Southland. Changes to one part of the flood protection network may alter the efficacy of other components and this strategy
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