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Overview and Trends in Insurance Portfolio Management

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Overview and Trends in Insurance Portfolio Management Investment Symposium March 2010 I4: Market Overview and Trends in Insurance Portfolio Management Len Carlson Scott Robinson Greg Smith Moderator Ken Griffin Government: New Partner or Peril? Presented by Len Carlson, CFA Managing Director, Portfolio Management SOA Investment Symposium, Marriott New York Marquis, March 22, 2010 All rights reserved. This presentation is produced by Conning and may not be reproduced or disseminated in any form without the express permission of Conning. This presentation is intended only to inform readers about general developments of interest and does not constitute investment advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein, Conning does not guarantee such accuracy and cannot be held liable for any errors in or any reliance upon this information. Conning does not guarantee that this presentation is complete. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no indication of future results. Conning is a portfolio company of the funds managed by Aquiline Capital Partners LLC ("Aquiline", a New York-based private equity firm,) with offices in Hartford, New York, Dublin and London. Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 1 1 The Debt Cycle - Levels Rise to New Highs (US Debt/GDP) Source: Morgan Stanley, Federal Reserve, BEA, Datastream, “The Statistical History of the United States” Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 2 Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis Stabilize financial institutions Provide liquidity Deficit spending Increased regulation Increased and lasting market influence Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 3 2 Policy Response Effects – Fixed Income Spreads Barclays Indices OAS 1998 - 2010 Source: Barclays Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 4 The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet U.S. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ($BN) US Billion Source: Strategas Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 5 3 Excess Reserve Worries – Inflationary Tinder? Depository Institutions Monetary Base, Excess Reserves $million $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 Depository Institutions Monetary Base Depository Institutions Excess $200 Reserves $0 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Source: Source: Bloomberg, Conning Analytics Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 6 The Fed’s Exit Strategy Raise the Fed Funds rate Wind-down of short-term lending Interest on excess reserves Reverse repurchase agreements Term deposits Portfolio runoff and asset sales Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 7 4 The Fed’s Exit Strategy Use of multiple tools Despite knowledge of responses, experience is limited Timing is critical Too early – choke off recovery, increased fiscal stimulus and deficit spending likely Too late – inflationary pressures rise Historically, bias has been one of extended easing Tightening policy rarely initiated in months preceding elections Alternative tools less visible than Fed Funds FOMC telegraphing change Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 8 Deficit Spending – Balloons Government Debt CBO’s Baseline Budget Outlook Source: CBO Jan. 2010 Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 9 5 Deficit Spending – Balloons Government Debt Budget Outlook 2010 Effects of Selected Policy Alternatives on the Deficit (In billions of dollars) Source: CBO Jan. 2010 Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 10 Deficit Spending – Balloons Government Debt Budget Balance (% of GDP) Source: Action Economics Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 11 6 Deficit Spending – Implications Greece – Tragedy avoided or the canary in the coal mine? Crisis of confidence and credibility for Greece Large deficits and weak growth plague others Increasing focus on structural versus cyclical deficits Return of sovereign risk considerations Developpped and developing countries alike Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 12 Deficit Spending – Implications Increased volatility Sovereign to corporate spreads relationships may tighten, but unlikely to remain inverted Risk of crowding out as private sector credit demand rises Growth dampened by debt loads, higher taxes, fiscal restraint Policy errors/shifts – “IMF Tells Bankers to Rethink Inflation” -Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2010 Inflation levels that are not priced into the market Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 13 7 Municipal Issuers Feel the Pinch State and local issuers State Revenue Declines over the Past Two Recessions are experiencing significant revenue shortfalls Revenue squeezes are expected through 2011 Many pension plans are significantly underfunded Other post-retirement benefit obligations (OPEB) pose additional fdiifunding issues Fundamentals are Source: Pew Center on the States 2010, Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government’s declining, unpopular State Revenue Reports actions are needed to arrest these trends Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 14 Municipal Opportunities – Taxable Issues Build America Bonds - BABS - Authorized under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Provides municipal issuers a taxable issuance option with a federal interest subsidy for capital projects. BAB interest subsidy equal to 35% of taxable interest paid is provided to the issuer in arrears States, transportation agencies and utilities with large capital programs are larges issuers Typically 30 to 40 year non-call 10 and bullet maturities with make whole call features tailored to the taxable market Opportunity to diversify long credit risk away from corporates, but credit work is essential! Recent* Issuer Rating Coupon Maturity Spread NY MTA- Dedicated Tax AA/A+ 7.336 11/15/39 +170bps Miam i- Da de Trans it A1/AA/A+ 69106.910 07/01/39 +225bps Dallas Rapid Trans Aa3/AAA 6.249 12/01/34 +135 bps Illinois St Tolls Aa3/AA-/AA- 5.293 01/01/24 150bps/10's New Jersey St Trans A1/AA-/A+ 6.875 12/15/39 +190bps NYC Water Auth Aa3/AA+/AA 6.250 06/15/41 +180bps Port Seattle Wash Aa2/AA-/AA 7.000 05/01/36 +165bps Univ of Texas Aaa/AAA/AAA 6.276 08/15/41 +120bps Univ of North Carolina Aa1/AA+/AA+ 5.757 12/01/39 +140bps Los Angeles Schools Aa3/AA- 6.758 07/01/34 +200bps *As of 2/18/10 Source: Conning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 15 8 CMBS - Government Medication Treats the Symptoms AAA spreads have recovered Property values remain depressed Barclays CMBS Index Spreads Commercial and Residential Cumulative Property Price Returns 6250 6250 100% Moody's/Real Commercial Price Index 90% Case Shiller 20 MSA Residential Price Index 5000 5000 80% ) 70% 3750 3750 from 12/00 from ( 60% Spread Spread 2500 2500 50% 40% Current index down 29% from 07/06 peak 1250 1250 30% Cumulative Price Return Return Price Cumulative 20% 0 0 Current index down Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 10% 43% from 10/07 peak Source: Bloomberg/Conning Analytics 0% 01/31/2010 MIN MAX MEAN Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 5 Yr AAA CMBS vs. Treasury 250 50 1000 255 10 Yr AAA CMBS vs. Treasury 430 61 1125 281 10 Yr AA CMBS vs. Treasury 3600 68 4125 1123 Source: Moody’s, Real Estate Analytics LLC, Bloomberg 10 Yr A CMBS vs. Treasury 4660 77 4850 1419 10 Yr BBB CMBS vs. Treasury 5870 119 6000 1843 Source: Barclays Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 16 CMBS – The Fundamentals are Challenging Commercial Mortgage Maturities By Lender Type Source: Congressional Oversight Panel, Foresight Analytics Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 17 9 Corporate Sector Impact Increased regulation and scrutiny for Financials Consumer protection Systemic risk Derivatives Reduction of implied support could negatively effect ratings on senior debt Financial sector most exposed to sovereign issues Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 18 Mortgage Backed Securities 350 42 The $1.25B Fed purchase program has 300 kept valuations at rich 37 levels. Spreads are 250 vulnerable to some 32 widen ing as the 200 Government read 150 27 medication wears off p Vol % Vol S Program to be 100 completed by March 31 22 50 Reinvestment of funds 17 from Agency buyouts of 0 delinquent mortgages may mitigate near-term -50 12 widening Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Bloomberg/Barclays/Conning Analytics Many investors already 01/31/2010 MIN MAX MEAN positioned for widening 30 Yr MBS Curr.Cpn vs.Treasury 155 96 300 156 5 x 5 Swaption Volatility 24.87% 13.80% 36.70% 20.34% 30 Yr MBS OAS Spread 1 -18 135 44 30 Yr MBS Zero Volatility Spread 45 21 187 106 30 Yr MBS OAS vs. 10 Yr Agcy -23 -81 60 -4 30 Yr MBS vs. 10YSwap Spread 64 53 173 80.43 Investment Actuarial Symposium – March 22, 2010 19 10 Future Structure of FNMA & Freddie Mac? U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) produced a detailed report to Congress in October, 2009 examining potential structures: Establishment of a government corporation or agency: Focus on purchasing qualifying mortgages and issuing MBS, but eliminate retained mortgage portfolios. Probability relatively high Re-establish for-profit enterprises with government sponsorship: Restore the enterprises to their previous status, but add controls and regulation; Impose public-utility-like regulation with business activity restrictions and profitability limits. Probability low Privatization: Abolish the enterprises and disperse mortgage lending and risk management to the private sector.
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