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Planning Ahead for a Postconflict Syria: Lessons from Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen

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Planning Ahead for a Postconflict Syria: Lessons from Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen DECEMBER 2013 Planning Ahead for a Postconflict Syria: Lessons from Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen CHRISTINA BENNETT Cover Image: Aleppo, Syria, 2011. ABOUT THE AUTHOR © Saxlerb/Istockphoto. CHRISTINA BENNETT is an independent policy analyst, Disclaimer: The views expressed in this who has worked for the United Nations and several interna - paper represent those of the author tional policy institutes on humanitarian, transition, and and not necessarily those of IPI. IPI welcomes consideration of a wide postconflict peacebuilding policy. range of perspectives in the pursuit of a well-informed debate on critical policies and issues in international ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS affairs. The author would like to thank the following people who IPI Publications developed the terms of reference for the study, facilitated Adam Lupel, Editor and Senior Fellow Marie O’Reilly, Associate Editor contacts, shared documents, participated in interviews, and Thong Nguyen, Editorial Assistant provided feedback on drafts and initial findings: Abdullah Al Dardari, director, economic development and global - Suggested Citation: Christina Bennett, “Planning Ahead for ization division, United Nations Economic and Social a Postconflict Syria: Lessons from Iraq, Commission for Western Asia; Edward Burke, associate Lebanon, and Yemen,” New York: fellow, Foundation for International Relations—FRIDE; International Peace Institute, December Omar Dahi, visiting fellow at the Carnegie Middle East 2013. Center, associate professor of economics, Hampshire © by International Peace Institute, 2013 College; Omar El Okdah, policy analyst, International Peace All Rights Reserved Institute; Jérémie Labbé, senior policy analyst, International Peace Institute; Salvatore Pedulla, senior regional adviser, www.ipinst.org United Nations Relief Works Agency; Maureen Quinn, director of programs, International Peace Institute; Paul Salem, vice president, Middle East Institute; Miranda Sissons, former chief of staff, International Center for Transitional Justice; and Thomas Weiss, director, Ralph Bunche Institute of International Relations. IPI owes a debt of gratitude to its many donors for their generous support. In particular, IPI would like to thank the government of Canada for making this publication possible. CONTENTS Executive Summary . 1 Introduction . 2 The Importance of Rebuilding the State: Hard Reconstruction in Iraq . 3 The Importance of Healing the Country: The Taif Agreement in Lebanon . 7 The Importance of Regional Cooperation: The GCC Initiative in Yemen . 10 Conclusion . 12 1 Executive Summary battered utilities and reviving essential social services. But unlike in Iraq, any reconstruction plan Though the violent conflict in Syria shows few should be based on Syrian priorities and a realistic signs of abating and scenarios for any postconflict assessment of needs and capacities at national and solution are numerous and vague, renewed interest subnational levels. This will not only help to create in peace talks presents an important opportunity to the peace dividends critical to Syrian optimism and discuss the parameters of peace and reconstruction investment in the future, but also peace assets— in Syria. NGOs and civil society groups—that may emerge There are many recent examples of postconflict as part of reconstruction in spite of sectarian differ - transition in the Middle East, and particularly in ences. places of complex socio-religious composition and Focus on establishing a national identity. The high strategic interest. Focusing on the immediate Taif Agreement in Lebanon was a model agree ment postconflict reconstruction in Iraq (2003–2005), on paper. However, in its implementation Taif the Taif Agreement in Lebanon (1990) and the Gulf allowed sectarian structures and identities to Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative in Yemen remain in place. Syria would do better to eliminate (2011), this report examines themes such as sectarian association by establishing a clear concep - importance of balancing “hard” reconstruction tion of a Syrian national identity and initiating a with “soft” reconstruction and how collective national dialogue process that takes into account engagement among neighbors can contribute to the new, nonsectarian local and regional networks regional security and stability. While the transition and economies that have emerged in wartime. from conflict to peace is different for every Return and reconstruction must be an engine of country—and the future of Syria is far from reform. The implementation of the Taif Agree - certain—the report aims to extract those lessons ment also failed to use reconstruction as an that may be useful for a peaceful transition in Syria. important lever for reconciliation, including by Dismantle the regime, not the state. In Syria, failing to return hundreds of thousands of there may be a valid need to break up the power internally displaced persons (IDPs). Any political structures of the current regime in an early transi - solution in Syria would do well to include a viable tion phase. However, Iraq’s de-Baathification and well-funded reconstruction plan focused on scheme demonstrated that efforts to reduce or restoring essential services in areas of IDP and redistribute the power of the regime are not refugee return, many of whom will become agents effective in promoting stability and growth unless of change if given the right incentives and tools. accompanied by efforts to shore up the state, Regional action equals regional security. Just as including by encouraging the return and engage - Gulf countries came together to support stability ment of Syria’s talented civil service and business and reform in Yemen following its uprising in class. 2011, Syria’s neighbors and Western governments Economic revitalization must keep pace with might find common purpose in supporting Syrian political reform. There may also be an inclination refugees and host communities. Such international to pursue a rapid shift to a market economy in cooperation would provide a foundation for the Syria. However, Iraq was declared “open for type of common action regional security and business” before a legitimate authority was in place stability requires, and may prove to be a catalyst for and without support to its state-owned enterprises, greater information sharing and dialogue on more the bedrock of the Iraqi economy. In Syria it will be divisive political issues. important to pursue economic growth alongside— Cooperation can prove greater than the sum of and not ahead of—political stability, and to forego its parts. Most of Syria’s neighbors have consider - rapid privatization in the name of promoting able experience in dealing with refugees—both as stability and sustainability in the Syrian economy places of origin and as host countries. Just as Gulf and its institutions. states and the UN brought their individual Combine long-term vision with short-term alliances, expertise, and leverage to bear on gains. As in Iraq, early reconstruction priorities in Yemen’s crisis through the GCC, so could Syria’s Syria are likely to be focused on repairing Syria’s neighbors use their collective experience to bring 2 Christina Bennett creative solutions to Syria, particularly on the Oil production has been cut in half. 5 The civil war thorny issues of Syrian refugees’ status, joblessness, has also destroyed much of Syria’s manufacturing and land use. base and critical infrastructure, including 60 Common action, tangible benefits. Just as the percent of hospitals. More than 3,000 schools and a GCC Initiative in Yemen linked national transition significant number of mosques have been damaged priorities with technical support and funds, a or destroyed, forcing more than 2 million Syrian regional cooperation framework for Syrian children to drop out of school with long-term refugees might help transform the massive refugee consequences not only for the children themselves, 6 challenge from a bilateral problem to a regional but for the future society Syria will need to rebuild. solution. This could allow for more comprehensive The conflict continues to spill over into needs assessments and more coordinated neighboring countries, as border regions are approaches on issues such as budget support, debt subject to shelling and as refugees continue to relief, and renewed attention to long-standing escape the fighting. The UN Refugee Agency development challenges in host countries. (UNHCR) estimates there are more than 2.28 million refugees in neighboring Egypt, Iraq, Introduction Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey, a number that increases by tens of thousands of people weekly. 7 Since 2011, the situation in Syria has evolved from This month, the UN appealed for $6.5 billion— a civil uprising to a large-scale humanitarian and the largest appeal in its history—for the humani - political crisis, destroying infrastructure, displacing tarian response inside Syria and to support those millions, and reversing development gains in a countries hosting refugees. Even though, as of country once on track to achieve many Millennium November, donors had put forward only around 60 Development Goals. The Syrian Arab Red Crescent percent of the $5 billion appealed for in June. 8 (SARC) estimates the two-year death toll to be nd more than 100,000 people. According to the latest Peace talks, now scheduled for January 22 , have UN appeal, more than 16 million people are been stalled for months over questions about projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance participation and
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