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Geology, Published Online on 29 July 2014 As Doi:10.1130/G35902.1 Geology, published online on 29 July 2014 as doi:10.1130/G35902.1 Geology Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone Brian F. Atwater, Bobb Carson, Gary B. Griggs, H. Paul Johnson and Marie S. Salmi Geology published online 29 July 2014; doi: 10.1130/G35902.1 Email alerting services click www.gsapubs.org/cgi/alerts to receive free e-mail alerts when new articles cite this article Subscribe click www.gsapubs.org/subscriptions/ to subscribe to Geology Permission request click http://www.geosociety.org/pubs/copyrt.htm#gsa to contact GSA Copyright not claimed on content prepared wholly by U.S. government employees within scope of their employment. Individual scientists are hereby granted permission, without fees or further requests to GSA, to use a single figure, a single table, and/or a brief paragraph of text in subsequent works and to make unlimited copies of items in GSA's journals for noncommercial use in classrooms to further education and science. This file may not be posted to any Web site, but authors may post the abstracts only of their articles on their own or their organization's Web site providing the posting includes a reference to the article's full citation. GSA provides this and other forums for the presentation of diverse opinions and positions by scientists worldwide, regardless of their race, citizenship, gender, religion, or political viewpoint. Opinions presented in this publication do not reflect official positions of the Society. Notes Advance online articles have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet appeared in the paper journal (edited, typeset versions may be posted when available prior to final publication). Advance online articles are citable and establish publication priority; they are indexed by GeoRef from initial publication. Citations to Advance online articles must include the digital object identifier (DOIs) and date of initial publication. © Geological Society of America Geology, published online on 29 July 2014 as doi:10.1130/G35902.1 Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone Brian F. Atwater1, Bobb Carson2, Gary B. Griggs3, H. Paul Johnson4, and Marie S. Salmi4 1U.S. Geological Survey at University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-1310, USA 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015-3001, USA 3Earth & Planetary Sciences Department, University of California–Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA 4School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-7940, USA ABSTRACT A 130ºW 120º A stratigraphic synthesis of dozens of deep-sea cores, most of British them overlooked in recent decades, provides new insights into deep- Southern Columbia limit of 50º Fraser R. sea turbidites as guides to earthquake and tsunami hazards along the ice sheet B Cascadia subduction zone, which extends 1100 km along the Pacific Full-length coast of North America. The synthesis shows greater variability ruptures in Holocene stratigraphy and facies off the Washington coast than WWashingtonashington was recognized a quarter century ago in a confluence test for seismic Fig. triggering of sediment gravity flows. That test compared counts of 3A Holocene turbidites upstream and downstream of a deep-sea channel Columbia R. Partial junction. Similarity in the turbidite counts among seven core sites pro- BFZ Cascadia ruptures vided evidence that turbidity currents from different submarine can- Channel Oregon yons usually reached the junction around the same time, as expected Seaward of widespread seismic triggering. The fuller synthesis, however, shows edge of distinct differences between tributaries, and these differences suggest megathrust California sediment routing for which the confluence test was not designed. The 40ºN synthesis also bears on recent estimates of Cascadia earthquake mag- PACIFIC OCEAN 19 4 1010 nitudes and recurrence intervals. The magnitude estimates hinge on Tally of ruptures stratigraphic correlations that discount variability in turbidite facies. N at 125ºW inferred for the The recurrence estimates require turbidites to represent megathrust 500 km past 10,000 yr earthquakes more dependably than they do along a flow path where Figure 1. A: Index map. Submarine canyons and channels are in turbidite frequency appears limited less by seismic shaking than black. Dot along Cascadia Channel locates core sites 6609-24 and by sediment supply. These concerns underscore the complexity of M9907-22, M9907-23, and M9907-25. BFZ—Blanco Fracture Zone; R.—river. B: Summary of earthquake history postulated by Goldfin- extracting earthquake history from deep-sea turbidites at Cascadia. ger et al. (2012). INTRODUCTION Twenty-first century earthquakes are projected to take millions of 10,000 yr Cascadia history that specifies 19 full-length ruptures and lives (Holzer and Savage, 2013). Efforts to reduce the losses employ esti- a similar number of shorter southern ruptures (Goldfinger et al., 2012) mates of earthquake sizes and recurrence intervals. Paleoseismology has (Fig. 1B). This inferred history underpins tsunami scenarios (Priest et al., improved such estimates by extending earthquake histories thousands of 2010), fault-energy budgets (Goldfinger et al., 2013b), and giant earth- years into the past. quake probabilities (Kulkarni et al., 2013). Turbidite paleoseismology is based on observations that earthquakes In this paper, we reappraise deep-sea turbidites as guides to Casca- are among the triggers for sediment gravity flows that evolve downslope dia earthquake hazards. We bring together data from legacy cores off the into turbidity currents, and that shaking may cause slopes to fail in the Washington coast that previous paleoseismological studies overlooked. same few minutes at sites widely separated along fault strike, a coincidence We draw on physiography, stratigraphy, and sedimentology in disputing not expected of other potential triggering mechanisms (Talling, 2014). If the confluence test and in questioning the turbidite basis for influential turbidites indicative of earthquakes can be positively identified and cor- estimates of earthquake size and recurrence. related, their geographic extent would provide a measure of earthquake size, and their repetition would represent earthquake recurrence intervals. PHYSIOGRAPHY Settings shown to be conducive to turbidite paleoseismology include lakes Cascadia’s largest network of deep-sea channels originates in sub- in Switzerland and Chile (Strasser et al., 2013; Moernaut et al., 2014). Less marine canyons that notch Washington’s continental shelf (Figs. 1–31). favorable settings include parts of the continental slope off Sumatra, where The upper canyons debouch onto a lower continental slope ribbed with great earthquakes rarely trigger turbidity currents (Sumner et al., 2013). Pleistocene anticlines (Adam et al., 2004). The northern thalwegs from Interpretations of deep-sea turbidites are guiding hazard assessment Nitinat, Juan de Fuca, and Quillayute Canyons drain into Juan de Fuca at the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends 1100 km along the North Channel, which heads at the apex of Nitinat Fan and descends its eastern American Pacific coast (Fig. 1). The study of turbidite paleoseismology edge (Fig. 3A). Southern thalwegs emanating from Quinault, Grays, and began there with a confluence test for seismic triggering of turbidity cur- Willapa Canyons merge on the lower slope. Their shared outlet reaches rents (Fig. 2A). Holocene sequences of deep-sea turbidites were found to an abyssal confluence with Juan de Fuca Channel at the head of Cascadia be similar above and below a confluence of deep-sea channels, and this Channel, which drains southward between Nitinat and Astoria Fans and similarity was ascribed to abyssal merger of turbidity currents that had continues westward through the Blanco Fracture Zone. The network is been triggered simultaneously in different submarine canyons (Adams, 1990). Today, deep-sea turbidites provide the main basis for a proposed 1Figure 3 is provided as an oversize insert. GEOLOGY, September 2014; v. 42; no. 9; p. 1–4; Data Repository item 2014286 | doi:10.1130/G35902.1 | Published online XX Month 2014 GEOLOGY© 2014 Geological | September Society 2014of America. | www.gsapubs.org Gold Open Access: This paper is published under the terms of the CC-BY license. 1 Geology, published online on 29 July 2014 as doi:10.1130/G35902.1 A B Supporting information for Figure 3 includes an extended explana- N N tion (Table DR1 in the GSA Data Repository2), a core list (Table DR2), S S volcanic-ash data (Table DR3), notes on inferred flow paths (Table DR4), and logs of cores on Nitinat Fan and the Washington slope (Figs. DR1 and DR2). An index map to cores keys them by source (Fig. DR3). Figure DR4, showing plunge pools west of Willapa Bay, includes EM 122 mul- Continental Cascadia Fault tibeam bathymetry and acoustic backscatter data derived from Holbrook slope Channel rupture et al. (2012). Figure DR5 schematically relates findings in Figure 3 to the Path N1 confluence test of Adams (1990). N2 North-South Stratigraphic Contrasts S1 Holocene stratigraphy off Washington differs between north and S2 south, both on the continental slope and on the adjacent abyssal plain. S3 The differences involve numbers of successive turbidites and abundance of reworked Mazama ash. Erupted sometime between 7500 and 7800 yr ago, Mazama ash was delivered to the sea by the Columbia River
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