Deep-Sea Turbidites As Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone— Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop
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Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone— Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop Brian F. Atwater and Gary B. Griggs Open-File Report 2012–1043 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2012 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Suggested citation: Atwater, B.F., and Griggs, G.B., 2012, Deep-sea turbidites as guides to Holocene earthquake history at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative views for a seismic-hazard workshop: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1043, 58 p., available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1043/. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 2 Evidence Reviewed ....................................................................................................................................3 Diagram Guide ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Turbidite Primer ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Turbidite Names ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Correlations Deduced from Turbidite Counts ................................................................................................. 6 Flow Paths ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Backflooding of Side Valleys .................................................................................................................. 7 Shortcuts from Quinault Canyon to Lower Juan de Fuca Channel ......................................................... 8 Observed Counts ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Mazama Datum ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Complex Turbidites .............................................................................................................................. 10 Time Lags in Cascadia Channel ........................................................................................................... 10 Inequality Between Juan de Fuca and Quinault-Willapa Flows ................................................................ 11 Attrition of Juan de Fuca Flows ............................................................................................................ 12 Inferred Dominance of Quinault-Willapa Flows .................................................................................... 12 Correlation of Individual Turbidites .............................................................................................................. 13 Geophysical Logs .................................................................................................................................... 13 Simplicity and Variability of the Inferred Signatures ............................................................................. 14 Sedimentary Shredding of Seismological Signals ................................................................................ 14 Along-strike Variation in Seismic Shaking ............................................................................................ 15 Radiocarbon Ages and Sedimentation Rates .......................................................................................... 17 Converting Foraminiferal Ages into Turbidite Ages .............................................................................. 17 Further Uncertainty About Rates of Hemipelagic Deposition ................................................................ 18 Further Uncertainty About the Thickness of Hemipelagic Deposits Lost to Erosion ............................. 19 Serial Rupture .......................................................................................................................................... 19 Reasons to Expect Serial Rupture ....................................................................................................... 20 Consistency with Coastal Geology ....................................................................................................... 20 Triggering Distance .............................................................................................................................. 20 Stratigraphic Code ................................................................................................................................ 21 Correlation with Onshore Evidence in Southern Washington and Northernmost Oregon ........................ 21 Onshore Evidence Correlative with Turbidite J2 ................................................................................... 22 Passage of Time Inferred from Burrowed Turbidites and Forested Tidelands ...................................... 22 Consistency with Confluence Test, Geophysical Logs, and Radiocarbon Ages ................................... 23 Consistency with Coastal Land-Level Changes ................................................................................... 24 Mud Turbidites ............................................................................................................................................. 25 Apparent Absence Offshore Washington ................................................................................................. 25 Initiation of Flows Offshore Oregon and Northern California .................................................................... 25 Recommendations for Mapping of Seismic Hazards ................................................................................... 26 Earthquakes of M 9 offshore Southern Washington and Beyond ............................................................. 26 Earthquake Recurrence Offshore Southern British Columbia and Northern Washington ........................ 27 Further Reasearch ................................................................................................................................... 28 Relating Turbidites to Earthquakes ...................................................................................................... 28 iii Putting Numbers on Hazards ............................................................................................................... 29 Acknowledgments and Author Responsibilities ........................................................................................... 29 Appendix—Generating Mud Turbidites Apart from Great Earthquakes ....................................................... 29 References Cited ......................................................................................................................................... 31 Tables 1. Examples of deep-sea turbidites that have been correlated with earthquakes outside of Cascadia ..... 44 2. Counts of turbidites that are known or inferred to postdate the eruption of Mount Mazama (Oregon) 7,800–7,500 sidereal years ago ............................................................................................................ 46 Figures 1. Bathymetric profiles and index map for Cascadia Subduction Zone ..................................................... 49 2. Locations of submarine canyons and channels, and of cores, in the network of Cascadia Channel ..... 50 3. Skeletal views of the confluence test at Cascadia Channel and its tributaries ...................................... 51 4. Previously unpublished details about cores collected in the late 1960s from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries .......................................................................................................................................... 52 5. Geophysical logs used by Goldfinger and others (in press) in correlating turbidites between Juan de Fuca Channel and lower Cascadia Channel .................................................................................... 54 6. Steps used recently in adjusting radiocarbon ages to estimate times of deep-sea turbidite deposition along the Cascadia Subduction Zone .................................................................................. 56 7. Uncertainties in adjustments to radiocarbon ages for turbidites in Cascadia Channel