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EU Preparedness and Responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Threats

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EU Preparedness and Responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Threats STUDY Requested by the SEDE Subcommittee EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats Authors: Alexandra RIMPLER-SCHMID, Ralf TRAPP, Sarah LEONARD, Christian KAUNERT, Yves DUBUCQ, Claude LEFEBVRE, Hanna MOHN EN European Parliament Coordinator: Policy Department for External Relations Directorate General for External Policies of the Union DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT STUDY EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats ABSTRACT This study on ‘EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats’ was requested by the European Parliament’s (EP) Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in the context of, but not limited to, the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic. Building on reports and expert input, this study first provides an update of the current level of each of the C, B, R and N threat elements, including the type of actor from which such threats might stem. It furthermore takes stock of the existing preparedness and response mechanisms and matches these against the updated threat landscape to determine the current state of play of the EU’s response tools and its remaining gaps where improvement may be needed. The study puts forward a number of recommendations on specific issues. The core of the recommendations builds on using a ‘Team Europe’ approach to create and maintain a strong task force based response capacity, with additional authority and competence given by EU Member States to the EU. This would enable the EU to better support and manage an EU-wide crisis response in the CBRN field in a timely and effective manner. EP/EXPO/SEDE/FWC/2019-01/Lot4/R/04 EN July 2021 - PE 653.645 © European Union, 2021 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies AUTHORS • Alexandra RIMPLER-SCHMID (Ecorys; project leader and coordinator), • Dr Ralf TRAPP (International Disarmament Consultant), • Professor Sarah LEONARD (University of the West of England), • Professor Christian KAUNERT (University of South Wales), • Yves DUBUCQ (Director of the International CBRNE Institute, CEO Sphynx Development & Consultancy Former Comdr of the JCBRNC (Joint CBRN Centre) Belgium), • Colonel (r) Claude LEFEBVRE (Expert consultant in CBRN defence technologies), • Hanna MOHN (Ecorys) Consultations on draft and final paper: Joanna SMĘTEK (Ecorys) and Rachel BEERMAN (Ecorys) Research Assistance: Sebastiaan OLISLAGERS (Ecorys) PROJECT COORDINATOR (CONTRACTOR) • ECORYS POLSKA This paper was requested by the European Parliament's Subcommittee on Security & Defence (SEDE). The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the authors, and any opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. CONTACTS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT • Coordination: Jérôme LEGRAND, Policy Department for External Policies • Editorial assistants: Eva ASPLUND, Daniela ADORNA DIAZ Feedback is welcome. Please write to [email protected] To obtain copies, please send a request to [email protected] VERSION The original English-language manuscript was completed on 12 July 2021. COPYRIGHT Brussels © European Union, 2021 Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. @Cover image used under licence from Adobe Stock. This paper will be published in the European Parliament's online database, 'Think tank' ISBN: 978-92-846-8359-8 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-846-8358-1 (paper) doi:10.2861/857738 (pdf) doi:10.2861/50408 (paper) Catalogue number: QA-02-21-905-EN-N (pdf) Catalogue number: QA-02-21-905-EN-C (paper) EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats Table of contents List of Tables and Figures 7 List of Boxes 7 List of Abbreviations 7 Glossary 12 Executive Summary 16 1 Introduction 19 1.1 Objectives and scope 19 1.2 Methodological approach 19 1.3 Structure of the study 19 2 Context and relevance of the study 20 2.1 Background on CBRN 20 2.2 EU competences and activities 23 2.2.1 EU Competences 23 2.2.2 EU legislation and initiatives 23 2.2.3 CBRN link to counter-terrorism 24 2.2.4 European Parliament 25 2.3 Relevant geopolitical context 26 2.3.1 Revival of US multilateralism 26 2.3.2 Growing foreign assertiveness 26 2.3.3 Instability in the Middle East 27 2.3.4 Brexit 27 2.4 COVID-19 28 3 Findings of recent studies 30 3.1 Topics discussed in previous studies and reports 30 3.1.1 Focus on types of CBRN threats and threat actors 30 3.1.2 EU Member States’ preparedness 30 3.1.3 EU Support to EU Member States 32 3.1.4 Learning from COVID-19 34 3.1.5 EU priorities in a post-COVID-19 world 35 3 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies 3.2 Recommendations provided in previous studies and reports 35 4 Update on the CBRN threat landscape 36 4.1 International regimes against CBRN weapons 36 4.1.1 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 36 4.1.2 The Chemical Weapons Convention 37 4.1.3 4.1.3 The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention 37 4.2 CBRN threats from state actors 38 4.2.1 A concerning trend: the weakening of the international regimes against CBRN weapons 38 4.2.2 State actors of particular concern 41 4.3 CBRN threats from non-state actors 48 4.3.1 Incentives and disincentives for terrorists to acquire CBRN weapons 48 4.3.2 Past instances of CBRN terrorist plots 49 4.3.3 Assessment of the current threat of CBRN terrorism in Europe50 4.3.4 Looking towards the future: the possible impact of emerging technologies 54 4.4 Conclusion 56 5 State of play of the EU's preparedness regarding CBRN threats 57 5.1 Legal and organisational framework for EU actions 57 5.1.1 Recent experiences with EU preparedness and response against a CBRN crisis: COVID-19 59 5.2 Available Response Tools of the EU and its Member States 60 5.2.1 EU Member States capabilities 60 5.2.2 The 2017 CBRN Action Plan 62 5.2.3 Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) 65 5.2.4 Collaboration with NATO 68 5.2.5 Law enforcement 69 5.2.6 Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) 70 5.2.7 Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) 75 5.2.8 International Collaborations: UN and relevant associated International Organisations 76 5.2.9 Relationships with the Research Community and the Private Sector 77 4 EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats 5.2.10 Engagement with Populations / Civil Society 78 5.2.11 Other EU tools 79 5.3 Previously Identified Gaps in the EU's response 80 5.4 Relation to the Updated Threat Landscape 83 6 Conclusions and recommendations for reinforcing the EU's preparedness 84 6.1 EU and international level cooperation and agreements 84 6.1.1 Ensuring that the CBRN CoE Initiative becomes a genuine EU flagship programme 84 6.1.2 Ensuring strategic coordination between priorities adopted and projects implemented under the CBRN CoE Initiative and the actions supported by the EU under CFSP Council Decisions. 85 6.1.3 Revitalising the partnership with the United States 85 6.1.4 Working towards a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran 86 6.1.5 Supporting sanctions against the violations of the international regimes against CBRN weapons 86 6.1.6 Forging deeper cooperation with NATO 86 6.1.7 Contributing to the implementation of an eventual agreement on the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula 87 6.2 EU Preparedness 87 6.2.1 Reviewing the lessons from the EU response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the chemical weapons use in Syria and incidents and threats of CBRN agents being used by non-state actors in European countries 87 6.2.2 Setting up an EU CBRN Centre of Excellence 88 6.2.3 Linking CBRN preparedness to other cross-cutting issues 89 6.2.4 Introducing overarching crisis situation legislation 89 6.2.5 Strengthening the response capacity to CBRN incidents through building up indigenous production capacities for protective equipment 90 Annex I Bibliography 92 Annex II List of interviewed individuals 100 Annex III Overview of relevant EP discussions on CBRN 101 5 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies Annex IV Overview of recent studies on CBRN commissioned by the European Parliament 103 Annex V CFCP actions in the area of WMD non-proliferation and disarmament 104 Annex VI CBRN Threat Matrix 107 6 EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats List of Tables and Figures Figure 2.1 The EU policy landscape with regard to CBRN preparedness and response ......................................24 Figure 3.1 Threat and preparedness scores in selected countries and regions ......................................................31 Figure 4.1 The weakening of the international regimes against CBRN weapons ..................................................39 Table 5.1 Recommendations on the CBRN CoE from the Court of Auditors' 2018 special report ...................73 Table II.1 List of interviewed individuals ............................................................................................................................ 100 Table II.2 List of individuals from whom written responses were received .......................................................... 100 Table III.1 Overview of relevant EP discussions on CBRN ............................................................................................. 101 Table IV.1
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