Grandhome: Socio- Economic Impact Assessment
A Final Report by Regeneris Consulting
The Grandhome Trust (c/o
Turnberry Consulting)
Grandhome: Socio- Economic Impact Assessment
October 2013 Regeneris Consulting Ltd Faulkner House Faulkner Street Manchester M1 4DY www.regeneris.co.uk
Contents
1. Introduction and Purpose 1
2. Policy Context 3
3. Baseline Socio-Economic Profile 8
4. Scheme Description 29
5. Grandhome Population Estimates 33
6. Employment Impacts 37
7. Social & Community Infrastructure Assessment 45
8. Conclusions 52
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1. Introduction and Purpose
1.1 The Grandhome Trust is developing proposals for a major mixed-use urban extension of Aberdeen located on a 319 Hectare site to the north west of Aberdeen city. Grandhome was selected in 2009 as one of 11 projects in the Scottish Sustainable Communities Initiative (SSCI), intended to provide innovative solutions for large scale new housing developments across the country. The development would make a significant contribution to meeting the growth needs of Aberdeen over the next 20 years.
1.2 The masterplan for the Grandhome development is for a major new settlement which would eventually comprise (by 2050):
• Up to 7,000 homes;
• New affordable housing, with the housing mix including 25% affordable homes;
• Seven neighbourhoods which will incorporate a mix of housing, commercial premises and social/community facilities;
• An extensive range of social and community infrastructure;
• A substantial amount of networked open spaces taking advantage of the site’s location;
• Strong connections to surrounding neighbourhoods, employment areas and the wider Aberdeen city area.
1.3 The site has been identified as an opportunity site in the Aberdeen City Local Development Plan (LDP), part of the Bridge of Don/Grandhome area earmarked as being locations for growth. This ties in to the role of Aberdeen as a key driver of Scotland’s economic performance, with both the City and two other areas of Aberdeenshire recognised as strategic growth areas1. The area is expected to see strong economic growth over the next 20 years, tied to the energy sector.
1.4 This is the technical report for the assessment of the socio-economic impacts of the proposed development of Grandhome. It is intended to be read alongside the socio- economic chapter of the Environmental Statement (ES) which accompanies the planning application for the scheme. The Grandhome Trust is applying for Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) for Phases 1-5 (4,700 dwellings to be completed by 2038). However, for completeness, the technical report also presents the impacts for Phase 1 (500 dwellings to be completed by 2018) and the Overall Masterplan, i.e. Phases 1-7 (7,000 dwellings to be completed by 2050). It is anticipated that a detailed application for Phase 1 will follow.
1 The two other areas are the Huntly to Laurencekirk and Aberdeen to Peterhead transport corridors.
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1.5 The technical report is structured as follows:
• An overview of the policy context for the proposed Grandhome development, and specifically the key socio-economic policy drivers
• Socio-economic data for the local area, Aberdeen city, and Aberdeenshire to establish the baseline from which the potential impacts of the proposed development are to be measured
• Analysis of the proposed development’s potential population, which is a key driver of its economic impact
• Assessment of the potential employment impacts which could be supported by the proposed development arising from construction activity, commercial premises and household expenditure
• An overview of the potential employment impacts of social and community infrastructure and a commentary on the provision identified in the masterplan
• The key conclusions from the impact assessment
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2. Policy Context
2.1 The policy context for the proposed development at Grandhome is set by a wide range of national, regional and local strategies and policies. These range from nationwide economic and planning strategies to those specific to Aberdeen city and the area in which Grandhome is located. This section provides an overview of the policy framework against which the proposed development’s objectives and characteristics can be assessed.
National Policies
2.2 The Scottish Government sets the framework for a full spectrum of economic, social and planning policies that will shape the development of the proposed settlement. Many of these policies are reflected in specific local policies and strategies. Among the key policy drivers are:
• Draft Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) for Consultation (2013) - The SPP is a non- statutory statement of Scottish Government policy on how nationally important land use planning matters should be addressed across the country. The purpose of the SPP is to set out national planning policies which reflect Scottish Ministers’ priorities for the development and use of land to create high quality and sustainable employment and residential places. These priorities are intended to be followed through within local development plans. A key objective within the SPP is to ensure the planning process delivers sustainable economic growth, with plans informed by sound evidence about the key economic issues, challenges and opportunities within the plan area. The SPP also identifies priorities around the need to plan carefully for affordable housing to meet existing and future need, as well as the importance of green infrastructure.
• National Planning Framework 2 (2009) - This document guides Scotland’s development to 2030 and takes forward the spatial aspects of the Government’s Economic Strategy. A monitoring report was prepared in 2012 to assess progress of NPF2, while in line with the Draft SPP, work is underway on the preparation of National Planning Framework 3. The National Planning Framework 2 (NPF2) argues that changes in Scotland’s demographic profile need to be reflected in the provisions for housing, transport and local community facilities. Sub-national population projections for Scotland indicate that Aberdeenshire’s population will increase by 19% until 2030. Throughout Scotland, the number of households required by 2030 is also projected to increase by 19% (to 2.7 million), an average of 17,600 additional households per year. However, the Government’s aspirations imply a higher overall household growth than the current projections indicate. This means that not all the additional new houses needed can be built on previously developed land. Furthermore, there remains a pressing need for the planning system to help deliver growth in the supply of new homes to respond to long-term housing pressures and to ensure that enough houses of the right type are provided in the right place and at the right price.
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• Government Economic Strategy (2011) - The Government’s Economic Strategy focuses on six strategic priorities including a supportive business environment, the transition to a low carbon economy, learning, skills and well-being, as well as effective Government and equity. The strategic priority attached to infrastructure development and place focuses on harnessing the strength and quality of Scotland’s towns, cities and rural areas, as well as promoting the digital economy. Following the elections in 2011, the Scottish Government renewed its emphasis on the drive to create and sustain new private sector employment as part of a rebalancing of the economy following reductions in public sector employment.
• Working for Growth: A Refresh to the Employability Framework for Scotland (2012) - Reducing unemployment is identified as a national challenge requiring a cohesive response across all partners in Scotland. The Employability Framework encourages the alignment of employability and skills services and seeks to emphasise and develop the premise that employability policy and investment across Scotland should have the same purpose of supporting economic recovery and ensuring that those who struggle the most in the labour market are not left further behind in the competition for good jobs.
• National Low Carbon Economic Strategy (2010) - Objectives relating to the development of low carbon built environments and the provision of more low carbon transport options are central to the strategy. It reinforces the importance attached to economic growth which enables Scotland to meet its carbon emission targets. It would be expected to influence the type of development that takes place in the proposed settlement. • Energetica - Under the banner of the Energetica Framework, Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Councils, in association with other partners in Aberdeenshire are seeking to encourage development that makes a contribution to the quality of life, environmental performance and economic development targets. The Energetica area extends from North Aberdeen to Peterhead and encompasses the settlements of Dyce, Bridge of Don, and Danestone to the north of Aberdeen City. This framework will result in the transformation of the Energetica corridor into a high class lifestyle, leisure and global business location. The aspiration is to create a technology lifestyle community with innovative transport links showcasing the latest low carbon technologies while drawing on the dynamism and innovation of the energy and offshore industries. • Homes Fit for the 21st Century (2011) - This document suggests that budget cuts to the Scottish Government mean that the traditional methods used to finance new homes is no longer sustainable, and that innovative and different approaches to finance new homes are required. This view has been taken forward by the UK Government in the last year, with the development of the ‘Help to Buy’ home ownership policy. • Scottish Sustainable Communities Initiative (2008) - The Scottish Sustainable Communities Initiative (SSCI) encourages the creation of new low or zero carbon communities while providing a platform to stimulate a rise in environmental and design quality standards. It wants to do away with homogeneous, single-use housing areas that are not well related to the patterns of development around them, and which encourage energy and resource consumption as well as unhealthy and insular Page 4
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lifestyles. One of the initiative’s key proposals is that proposals are developed in partnership between both the public and private sectors and that all SSCI settlements provide high quality, affordable homes for all sectors of the community. The new sustainable communities should be housing-led projects, and the creation of new communities may be particularly appropriate in areas experiencing significant housing pressures.
• National Transport Strategy (2006) - A move to more sustainable forms of transport and reductions in carbon emissions are key objectives of the National Transport Strategy. Accessible locations for employment which are close to housing and well served by public transport will be essential to the delivery of these objectives. How the proposed settlement is able to connect residents to jobs on the site and provide sustainable transport options when they travel to other places will determine the extent of the contribution it makes.
Local Policy and Strategy
2.3 The key drivers for the proposed settlement stem from local strategies and plans. They range from community strategies for the area immediately around the settlement site to the detailed planning policy framework for Aberdeenshire. How this local policy context relates to the proposed settlement is summarised in Table 2.1 below.
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Table 2.1: Summary of Local Policy Context and Links to Proposed Settlement Policy / Strategy Relevance to Proposed Settlement Aberdeen City and Shire • Grandhome recognised as a key location for growth in the plan, part of the Aberdeen city strategic growth area Strategic Development Plan • The plan recognises the need for a supply of employment land to support economic growth, setting a target of 60 Ha of marketable land to (2013) be available at any point in time • Increase the population of the area to 500,000 by 2035 (+35,000) is a target for the plan • The document also points to the need for substantial investment in infrastructure if it is to create sustainable communities at it grows Building on Success: The • The action plan sets an ambitious economic growth rate of 2.5% per annum from 2013-18 Economic Action Plan for • Energy, the life sciences, tourism and food and drink are identified as the key sectors for the area’s economy Aberdeen City and Shire, • Attracting, developing and retaining skilled people is identified as one the key strategic priorities for the area, with actions identified to 2013-18, Aberdeen City and invest in the skills base, attract new ‘talent’ and support employment growth in key sectors Shire Economic Future • The action plan recognises the link between economic objectives for the area, the need to promote it as a place to live and the need for a (2013) planning system which supports development Aberdeen Local Plan (2012) • Aim is for Aberdeen to be a sustainable city at the heart of a vibrant and inclusive North East of Scotland. Aberdeen City Council • Redevelopment of previously used sites will make a huge contribution to the overall sustainability aims of the Local Development Plan. It is however, also recognised that the city needs to expand beyond its existing edges to maintain and enhance employment and housing opportunities as well as retaining the city’s growing population while attracting other to invest and live there. • Grandhome area is identified as having opportunities for a mixture of uses. The area has a housing allowance for 7,000 homes and 5 hectares of employment land by 2030. o 2,600 homes 2007-2016 o 2,100 homes 2017-2023 o 2,300 homes 2024-2030 Aberdeen City • The strategy’s aim is of making 21st century Aberdeen a successful city for its entire population, and is particularly focused on actions to Regeneration Strategy: support those communities which have gained least from the economic successes of the past few decades. Closing Our Gaps (2007) • It aims to achieve this by creating a more inclusive city, and by tackling the geography of inequality throughout the city. The Aberdeen City Alliance • Four City-wide challenges are identified: o Population and a changing household structure o An imbalance in housing supply and housing demand o Above-average recorded crime rates o Below-average primary school attainment. • The situation with population and household structure change is largely due to falling household sizes and the growth of single-person households. • The demand for housing type is not balance with the supply that is available. The housing offer in the City is mostly made up of flats, when family homes are required. Page 6
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Aberdeen Housing • The Housing Strategy for the Aberdeen sets out the vision for the local authority’s approach to housing and meeting wider national housing Strategy, 2012-2017 priorities. The strategy includes a vision for Aberdeen City to be a vibrant, dynamic and aspirational city. The most relevant priorities Aberdeen City Council adopted in the housing strategy are: o Encourage the building of new affordable housing. o Ensure a sustainable economic future for the city. • The strategy also highlights the important links between the provision of housing and the economic development. The provision of housing in all its forms helps to develop economic activity by providing employment opportunities in the construction industry and attracting new businesses and workers to an area.
Aberdeen Local Transport • The Local Transport Strategy’s vision is to develop a sustainable transport system that is fit for the 21st century, accessible to all, supports a Strategy 2008 to 2012 vibrant economy whilst minimising environmental impacts. Settlements would be expected to meet the principles laid out in the strategy, (2008) Aberdeen City particularly: Council o Transport networks contributing towards a thriving economy for Aberdeen City and its region o Minimising the environmental impacts of transport on the community and the wider area o Ensure that the transport system is integrated and accessible to all • This strategy aims to support Aberdeen’s thriving economy by supporting the improvement of regional, national and international connections to the City whilst locking-in benefits locally. • In addition the Local Transport Strategy aspires to facilitate and support land use development that is adjacent to sustainable and major transport corridors and nodes.
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3. Baseline Socio-Economic Profile
3.1 The purpose of the economic and social profile is to establish a summary baseline to inform the impact assessment. The assessment considers the implications of the proposed developments in Grandhome for the Danestone and Bridge of Don area, defined as the local impact area. It also considers its potential impacts on the Aberdeen City and wider Aberdeenshire area. The socio-economic profile below gives a brief overview of key data for these areas, including local data for the Danestone and Bridge of Don area where available. Key Messages • The Aberdeen City and Shire area has experienced growth in population over the past ten years. There was limited growth in the working age population, a fall in the proportion of children under the age of 16 and a significant increase in older adults. Average household size is also falling. • Population projections up to 2035 forecast that the number of older adults in the region will increase at a faster rate than in either Scotland or the UK. This, along with ever falling household sizes will drive the need for new residents of working age, and a more balanced housing mix in the Aberdeen City Housing Market Area. • Household forecasts underline the strong rate of growth anticipated for the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire areas through to 2035. • The regional economy is buoyant and was able to limit the negative impacts of the recession. The energy sector (especially oil and gas) is a key sector, employing a fifth of the regional workforce. The public sector is another major employer and employs one in four people in the Aberdeen City and Shire area. • Average incomes in the City and Shire region are higher than the Scotland and UK averages. Around 40% of people employed in the City and Shire region can be classified as being in higher managerial positions, and there is a high proportion working as scientists, researchers, engineers and technical professionals, reflecting the skills base required in the energy sector. • House prices in Aberdeen City are, on average, 50% higher than Scotland’s. While reflecting the economy’s strength, higher house prices may be driving down affordability restricting supply and, potentially influencing the ability of key and public sector workers to buy houses within the City’s HMA. • Recent housing completion rates for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire indicate that while in Aberdeenshire the market was able to respond and out-perform housing need, the City was unable to keep pace with its projected need. • The 2012 Employment Land Audit identified over 926 Ha of established land supply in the Aberdeen City and Shire area. Of this, 125 Ha is marketable supply in Aberdeen City, with 58 Ha immediately available for development. The increase in employment land allocations in the last year in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, will be important in ensuring that Aberdeen City and Shire region achieves its growth aspirations. • Aberdeen City holds a dominant position in the North East of Scotland for shopping; in 2009, it was 20th best city in UK for shopping facilities, and third-best in Scotland. Retail provision for the local impact area is currently available at Danestone, Middleton Park and Dyce. Provision is fairly limited in each area, and each functions as a district centre for its surrounding residential area. Each of the three districts is dominated by a large superstore (Tesco / ASDA) and a number of national chains.
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Population & Households
3.2 The Danestone and Bridge of Don impact area had a population of just under 22,000 people in 2011, experiencing a slight decline (-4%) between 2001 and 2011. While the local population in this area of Aberdeen has fallen over the last decade, the population for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire grew at four percent and nine percent respectively. Overall, the City and Shire’s population grew by more than 29,000 (+7%) people over the past ten years, at a rate that was almost twice that for Scotland (+4%) and in line with Great Britain’s (+7%). This growth in population across the Aberdeen City Region reflects the city’s buoyant economy and the way the city has acted as a magnet for investment and business expansion (see later analysis).
Table 3.1: Population Change 2001 to 2011 2001 2011 Absolute Change Percentage Change Danestone & Bridge 22,700 21,800 -900 -4.0% of Don Aberdeen City 211,900 220,400 +8,500 +4.0% Aberdeenshire 226,900 247,600 +20,700 +9.1% Aberdeen City & 438,800 468,000 +29,200 +6.7% Shire Scotland 5,064,200 5,254,800 +190,600 +3.8% Great Britain 57,424,200 61,425,700 +4,001,500 +7.0% Source: Census of Population, 2001, Mid-year population estimates, 2011
Age Structure
3.3 Strong population growth across the whole region reflects Aberdeen’s robust economic performance over the last ten years. In 2011, more than two out of every three people living in the Aberdeen City and Shire area were of working age (16 to 64). The proportion of children under the age of 16 was in line with Scotland’s (17%), whereas the proportion of the population aged 65 and over was lower at 16%, compared with 17% for Scotland.
Figure 3-1: Population in 2011
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Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates 2011
3.4 Although the local and regional impact areas had similar age structures in 2011, changes to their respective age structures over the previous ten years were very different. In line with the United Kingdom, the Aberdeen City and Shire area is experiencing a fall in the number of children under the age of 16 and an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over.
3.5 In the Danestone and Bridge of Don local impact area, the proportion under the age of 16 has decreased by over a fifth (-22%), while working age population increased slightly (less than one percent) and that for people aged 65 and over increased by over 60%. The changing composition within the local population will already be having important implications for the way local services (e.g. education and healthcare) and delivered and for the vibrancy and vitality of these local neighbourhoods.
Table 3.2: Change in proportions from 2001 to 2011 Children Working Age 65 and over Danestone & Bridge of Don -22.1% -2.3% +62.5% Aberdeen City -3.9% +1.9% -3.9% Aberdeenshire -10.1% -0.3% +15.9% Aberdeen City & Shire -7.3% +0.7% +6.2% Scotland -9.3% +1.1% +6.5% Great Britain -6.2% +0.9% +4.1% Source: ONS, Census of Population 2001 & 2011
Population Projections
3.6 The 2010-based sub-national population projections for Scotland and the United Kingdom indicate that population for the City and Shire region will increase by around a fifth (+19% to +22%) by 2035, whereas that for Scotland is projected to increase by only 9%. As these projections demonstrate, Aberdeen is forecast to deliver a significant uplift in its overall population by 2035. Given such growth, it will be imperative that employment opportunities and importantly housing and other infrastructure are delivered to meet this need.
Table 3.3: Population projections 2012 to 2035 Change 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2012-2035 Aberdeen City 222,231 229,935 241,391 252,347 262361 271,705 22.3% Aberdeenshire 251,055 258,629 269,625 280,383 290,458 299,404 19.3% Aberdeen City & 473,286 488,564 511,016 532,730 552,819 571,109 20.7% Shire Scotland 5,281,693 5,365,374 5,485846 5,595,578 5,685,596 5,755,477 9.0% United Kingdom 63,220,780 64,606,462 66,715,447 68,619,632 70,258,905 71,695,440 13.4% Source: NRS, 2010-based sub-national population projections 2010-2033.
3.7 In terms of the age structure, it is projected that the number of children under the age of 16 across the region will increase to over 95,800 (+17%), whereas overall growth in the number of children in Scotland is expected to be at three percent.
3.8 The working age population in the Aberdeen City and Shire region is also expected to
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increase, an important factor in the quality and depth of the area’s labour force. It is projected that the increase will be 10% above 2012 figures. On the other hand Scotland’s working age population is projected to decrease by two percent by 2035. This decrease in working age population across the Aberdeen region reinforces the trends experienced over the past ten years.
3.9 The number of people aged 65 and over is also projected to increase. This trend is universal and reflects a nation-wide tendency where growth in the elderly population is projected to be faster than for any other age group. It is projected that growth in the number of 65 and overs in the Aberdeen City and Shire region (+70%) exceeds that of both Scotland (+55%) and the United Kingdom (+37%).
Household Sizes
3.10 Recent trends of falling average household sizes are set to continue well into the future. The table below indicates that the average household size in Aberdeen City is expected to be 1.82 people in 2035, registering a fall of just under 10% on 2010 figures (2.01 people). In Aberdeenshire, the decrease in household size is expected to be less rapid, and is projected to be 1.95 people by 2035, falling by around nine percent on 2010 figures. Aberdeen City’s relatively low average household size is typical of urban areas everywhere.
Table 3.4: Changes in average household size between 2010 and 2035 Change 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010-35 Aberdeen City 2.01 1.99 1.95 1.92 1.87 1.82 -9.5% Aberdeenshire 2.35 2.32 2.27 2.23 2.19 2.15 -8.5% Scotland 2.17 2.13 2.08 2.04 1.99 1.95 -10.1% Source: General Register Office for Scotland, Average household size, by local authority, 2010 to 2035
3.11 A decrease in average household sizes, along with an increase in population total for the Aberdeen City and Shire area will influence household projections for the impact area. It is projected that the total number of households in the City and Shire area will increase to over 280,600 by 2035, an increase of 73,200 (+35%) additional households.
Household Formation
3.12 The number of households in Aberdeen City is projected to grow at a faster rate than the regional average, and it is predicted that household numbers in Aberdeen City will increase by an additional 1,600 every year until 2035. By 2035 it is forecast that an additional 40,000 (+39%) households will have formed in Aberdeen City.
3.13 New household formation in Aberdeenshire is projected to be slower than in the City and Shire region. Despite a slower formation rate than the region, Aberdeenshire’s new household formation rate (+32%) is still expected to be greater than Scotland’s.
Table 3.5: Household projections 2010 to 2035 Year Change 2010-35 Annual 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 No % Change Aberdeen City 103,680 111,440 119,280 126,690 134,920 143,620 39,940 +38.5% 1,598 Aberdeenshire 103,770 110,600 117,640 124,460 130,810 137,010 33,240 +32.0% 1,330 City & Shire 207,450 222,040 236,920 251,150 265,730 280,630 73,180 +35.3% 2,927
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Scotland 2,357,420 2,473,460 2,588,600 2,691,410 2,790,490 2,888,230 530,810 +22.5% 21,232 Source: General Register Office for Scotland, Household projections for Scotland, by local authority, 2010 to 2035, all households
3.14 The increase in the number of new households is not projected to be equal across all the household types. While the proportion of single adult households is projected to increase everywhere, this growth is expected to be faster in Aberdeenshire (+32%) and Scotland (+22%). By 2035, half of all the households in Aberdeen City are projected to be single-adult households. This reflects a combination of the area’s draw on younger labour, trends in household composition generally (eg. people leaving it longer to form couples) and the ageing of the population, with older households tending to be smaller.
3.15 Traditional households (i.e. two adults and their children) are expected to decrease everywhere, with the greatest decrease expected to be in Aberdeenshire (-57%) and Scotland (-39%).
Table 3.6: Changes in household types 2010 to 2035 2010 2035 Change % of all households % of all households 2010-2035
1 adult 42% 48% +14.3% 1 adult, 1+ children 6% 7% +16.7% 2 adults 30% 28% -6.7% 2+ adults, 1+ children 15% 11% -26.7% Aberdeen City 3+ adults 8% 6% -25.0%
1 adult 28% 37% +32.1% 1 adult, 1+ children 5% 6% +20.0% 2 adults 36% 38% +5.6% 2+ adults, 1+ children 23% 15% -34.8% Aberdeenshire 3+ adults 7% 3% -57.1% 1 adult 37% 45% +21.6% 1 adult, 1+ children 7% 9% +28.6% 2 adults 31% 31% 0.0%
Scotland 2+ adults, 1+ children 18% 11% -38.9% 3+ adults 8% 5% -37.5% Source: General Register Office for Scotland, Household projections, by household type and local authority 2010 to 2035
3.16 In contrast to the projected growth in single person households, the proportion of larger household types is expected to fall. The diagram below indicates that around 43% of all the households in the Aberdeen City and Shire area will be single adult households by 2035, and are expected to increase steadily. The number of two adult households across the City and Shire area is expected to remain constant at 33%, whereas the number of two adult with their children is expected to decrease from 19% in 2010 to around 13% in 2035.
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Figure 3-2: Household projections by type 2010 to 2035 for the Aberdeen City and Shire area
Source: General Register for Scotland, 2010-based household projections for Scotland
Employment & Enterprise
Employment Performance
3.17 As of 2011, the Aberdeen City and Shire region had a total of 271,100 jobs, with two thirds of all the jobs being located in Aberdeen City. During the period 1998 to 2011 the number of jobs in the City and Shire area increased by 17%, compared to an 8% increase in Scotland and 9% nationally. Looking at the period before the 2008 recession, the City and Shire area registered a 14% increase in jobs (+33,200 jobs), while Scotland and Great Britain registered an increase of 12% and 10% respectively.
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Figure 3-3: Overview of Employment performance, 1998 to 2011
Note: ABI data for the pre-2008 period has been recalibrated according to BRES post-2008 data Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Annual Business Inquiry 3.18 The area’s economic strength is underpinned by its energy sector, and the performance of this sector has enabled the area to weather the recession better than many. Although Aberdeen City saw a fall of 10,200 jobs (-5%), Aberdeenshire saw employment increase by 9,000 over the same period.
3.19 However, the local impact area of Danestone and Bridge of Don appears to have been hit harder by the recession. It had an employment base of 13,600 people in 2011, having experienced a loss of around 1,400 (-9%) jobs since 2008. Although accounting for only 8% of all employment in Aberdeen City in 2008, this fall represented over 13% of the job losses in the city since then.
Table 3.7: Employment Change 2008 to 2011 Change 2008 - 2011 2008 2011 Absolute Percentage Danestone & 15,000 13,600 -1,400 -9.3% Bridge of Don Aberdeen City 187,800 177,600 -10,200 -5.4% Aberdeenshire 92,600 101,600 +9,000 +9.7% Aberdeen City & 280,400 279,200 -1,200 -0.4% Shire Scotland 2,604,600 2,456,000 -148,600 -5.7% Great Britain 28,624,100 27,765,000 -859,100 -3.0% Note: All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2011
3.20 Analysis of the top ten employment sectors in the Aberdeen City and Shire area in 2011 indicates that around a fifth of all jobs are found in three sectors. These sectors, architectural and engineering activities (SIC 71), mining support services (SIC 09), and
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specialised construction activities (SIC 43) are all related to the energy sector, and depend greatly on the North Sea oil and gas industry.
Table 3.8: Top ten employment sectors (SIC 2007) in the Aberdeen City and Shire region, 2011 % of overall 2-digit SIC sectors Employment 47 : Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 8.5% 71 : Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 8.4% 86 : Human health activities 8.2% 85 : Education 6.4% 09 : Mining support service activities 6.3% 84 : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 4.3% 78 : Employment activities 4.3% 56 : Food and beverage service activities 4.2% 43 : Specialised construction activities 3.4% 46 : Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.9% Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2011 3.21 Over the last three decades, Aberdeen has steadily extended its role as an international hub for the industry, establishing itself as Europe’s foremost centre of excellence for subsea production, including high value research and development activity. Spending in the North Sea rose between 2011 and 2012, and drilling activity rose by 64% in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011. With up to 25 billion barrels of oil equivalent remaining to be extracted and prices expected to remain high, the sector will continue to be an engine of growth, with action already underway to enable the area to diversify into other energy sub-sectors. 3.22 The energy sector’s wider role is also crucial to the strength the area’s employment and business base. Its supply chain and services to it are estimated to account for around 140,000 jobs in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. It hosts 9 of Scotland’s top 20 companies with Total, Chevron, Petro Canada, CNR, Apache and Talisman operating in the oil and gas sector. Crucially, the energy sector gives Aberdeen and the UK international strength with the industry accounting for exports of around £5 billion.
3.23 Alongside the energy sector, the public sector continues to be a major employer in the Aberdeen City and Shire region. Encompassing public administration, education and health, the sector has maintained a role in the area’s employment which is consistent with the presence of a major city serving an extensive hinterland, coupled with the presence of large universities. In total, around one in four jobs in the regional impact area is supported by the public sector.
Table 3.9: Public Sector employment in the Aberdeen City and Shire region, 2011 Proportion of Employment Sector Number total jobs Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 12,100 4.5% Education 17,900 6.6% Human health and social work activities 35,100 12.9% Public Sector (total) 65,100 24.0% Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2011
Enterprise 3.24 With the energy sector as its backdrop, Aberdeen is in the top 5 UK cities for enterprise
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formation and the size of its business stock per head of population. Of the three main Scottish cities it was the only one to see an increase in the number of registered businesses between 2009 and 2011, a period when the recession resulted in increased business closures. Businesses operating in and around the energy sector (eg. research and development, engineering disciplines) accounted for an additional 500 registered enterprises (12% growth) during this period. 3.25 The strength of its private sector has also helped to reduce Aberdeen’s vulnerability to the recession and pressure on public sector spending. Centre for Cities research shows that private sector jobs outweighed public sector employment in Aberdeen by 3:1 in 2010, ranking Aberdeen in the top 10 UK cities on a measure which is an important indicator of an area’s economic resilience.
3.26 The majority of businesses (96%) operating in the Aberdeen City and Shire region employ less than 50 people. Although this is not uncommon, the proportion of businesses employing ten people or less in the City and Shire area (83%) is higher than Scotland’s (81%), but lower than Great Britain’s (85%).
Table 3.10: Enterprise size, 2008 11-49 50-199 200 or more 1-10 employees Total employees employees employees Danestone & 78.5% 15.4% 5.0% 1.1% 800 Bridge of Don Aberdeen City 77.8% 16.1% 5.0% 1.2% 9,700 Aberdeenshire 87.4% 10.3% 2.0% 0.4% 11,300 Aberdeen City & 82.9% 12.9% 3.4% 0.7% 21,000 Shire Scotland 81.4% 14.4% 3.4% 0.8% 181,500 Great Britain 85.0% 11.5% 2.8% 0.7% 2,446,000 Note: Total employee numbers are rounded to the nearest 100 Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008
3.27 Unsurprisingly over a fifth of all the businesses in the impact area operate in architectural and engineering activities (SIC 71) and specialist construction activities (SIC 43) which are both related to the energy industry.
Table 3.11: Top ten business sectors (SIC 2007) in the Aberdeen City and Shire area, 2008 % of overall 2-digit SIC sectors Employment 71 : Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 14.3% 47 : Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 9.4% 43 : Specialised construction activities 7.0% 56 : Food and beverage service activities 4.7% 70 : Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities 4.5% 46 : Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 4.2% 82 : Office administrative, office support and other business support activities 2.9% 96 : Other personal service activities 2.7% 85 : Education 2.5% 03 : Fishing and aquaculture 2.4% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008
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Business Registrations and De-registrations
3.28 The number of business start-ups and de-registrations is indicative of the stability of the local economy. A comparison of start-ups figures for 2010 indicates that business start-up rates per 10,000 adults in Aberdeen City were 30% and 60% higher than those for Aberdeenshire and Scotland respectively.
Figure 3-4: Overview of registrations, de-registrations and net change for 2010 (per 10,000 adults)
Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, 2011
3.29 Although the number of de-registrations in the City (52 VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults) is also higher than in Aberdeenshire (45 VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults) and Scotland (44 VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults) the difference is less than it is for registrations, giving Aberdeen City a positive net change since 2005. Three-year business survival rates for Aberdeen City were slightly lower than those for Aberdeenshire, indicating a less robust economy (particularly dependent on one sector) than that of its hinterland.
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Table 3.12: Business Registrations and De-registrations, 2002-2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Registrations - - 675 830 760 1,220 935 790 1,035
Registrations per 10,000 adults 45 41 39 48 44 69 53 44 57
De-registrations - - 805 740 735 665 670 740 955
De-registrations per 10,000 adults - - 47 43 42 38 38 41 52
Aberdeen City Net VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults - - -8 +5 +2 +31 +15 +3 +5
3-year business survival rates 61.4% 69.9% 62.2% 64.1% 68.8% 71.1% - - -
Registrations - - 795 1,015 895 1,385 1,045 820 880
Registrations per 10,000 adults 38 46 43 54 47 72 54 42 44
De-registrations - - 740 645 630 585 655 785 900
De-registrations per 10,000 adults - - 40 34 33 30 34 40 45
Aberdeenshire Net VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults - - +3 +20 +14 +42 +20 +2 -1
3-year business survival rates 72.5% 74.7% 74.2% 74.7% 74.7% 77.0% - - -
Registrations - - 14,375 16,935 15,070 18,165 16,225 14,725 15,530
Registrations per 10,000 adults 35 37 35 41 36 43 38 34 36
De-registrations - - 14,720 13,660 12,595 12,020 12,995 15,110 19,140
De-registrations per 10,000 adults - - 36 33 30 28 31 35 44 Scotland Net VAT/PAYE per 10,000 adults - - -1 +8 +6 +15 +7 -1 -8
3-year business survival rates 63.6% 63.4% 64.3% 64.0% 65.7% 65.5% - - - Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, 2011
Incomes & Occupations
Incomes
3.30 Incomes for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire are typically higher than those for Scotland and Great Britain. In 2012, the mean income for Aberdeen City was £35,700 and experienced over three percent growth over the previous year. The more common median annual gross income for Aberdeen City was £28,600 experiencing only 0.4% increase over the previous year. Although still higher than the averages for Scotland (£26,000) and Great Britain (£26,600) growth in the gross median income in Aberdeen City was slower than that in Aberdeenshire (+4.7%), Scotland (+2.4%) and Great Britain (+1.2%).
Table 3.13: Annual gross income 2012 Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Scotland Great Britain Mean £35,719 £35,292 £30,800 £32,899 Annual change (mean) +3.1% +3.7% +0.1% +2.9% Median £28,573 £29,662 £25,960 £26,551 Annual change (median) +0.4% +4.7% +2.4% +1.2% Average for lowest decile £15,573 £15,983 £14,382 £14,489 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – Resident Analysis, 2012
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3.31 The 2012 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) indicates that the level of income deprivation in Aberdeen City is below that of Scotland as a whole. In the Scottish IMD 2012 income domain (which looks at the number of adults receiving Income Support or Income- based Employment and Support Allowance, the number of adults receiving a Guaranteed Pension Credit, along with other indicators), nine percent of data-zones in Aberdeen City were income deprived (15% most deprived), compared to 13% across Scotland as a whole. Despite that, none of the data-zones within the Danestone and Bridge of Don impact area were within the 15% most deprived in Scotland.
Figure 3-5: Income Deprivation, Scottish IMD 2012
Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2012 3.32 The availability of well paid employment, a high employment rate and a good quality of life have contributed to Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire ranking among the best performers in the UK Government’s recently published survey of well being. It found high levels of satisfaction with life in general and relatively low levels of anxiety even at a time of economic uncertainty.
Household Expenditure
3.33 The incomes of the residents of the proposed settlement and their household expenditure will be key sources of its economic impacts, providing the basis for assessing how much spending the settlement could generate, and the benefits of this spending to the local economy. The starting point is to establish how households spend their income. In the absence of local household expenditure survey data, the most robust source is the UK Living Costs and Food Survey which incorporates Scottish expenditure data.
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Table 3.14: Indicative UK Weekly Household Expenditure, 2011 Type of Expenditure Weekly Expenditure Transport £65.70 Recreation & culture £63.90 Housing, fuel & power £63.30 Food & non-alcoholic drinks £54.80 Restaurants & hotels £39.70 Miscellaneous goods & services £38.60 Household goods & services £27.30 Clothing & footwear £21.70 Communication £13.30 Alcoholic drinks, tobacco & narcotics £12.00 Education £7.00 Health £6.60 Source: UK Living Costs and Food Survey, 2011
3.34 The table above provides a breakdown of current household expenditure based on the latest available data from the 2011 UK Living Costs and Food Survey. It gives an indicative picture of the categories of expenditure that are used to assess the spending impacts of new households in the proposed settlement.
3.35 The impact assessment uses these household expenditure data to determine how much the residents of the new settlement might be expected to spend each week, taking account of the proportion of this expenditure which would take place within the settlement itself, and outside the settlement. However, it is also useful to compare income data for Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Scotland and the UK (discussed above), to establish how close UK figures are to the study area.
Occupations and the Skills Base 3.36 Aberdeen’s and Aberdeenshire’s resident workforce has higher than average skills and qualification levels. There are high proportions of graduates in the resident and working population, with close to 45% of working age residents of Aberdeen having degree level qualification. Higher managerial and professional occupations account for around 29% of employment in the area, a higher proportion of its workforce than for the Scottish workforce as a whole. In broader terms, with professional associate professional and technological occupations included, this higher skilled, higher paid component of the occupational structure accounts for just over 40% of the City total workforce.
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Figure 3-6: Higher managerial positions (SOC 2000)
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2012
3.37 A more detailed look at occupations in Aberdeen City reflects both employment and business sectors in the City. As such it is not surprising that the proportion of the City’s population working as science, research, engineering and technology professionals (11%) is over twice that in Scotland and Great Britain (both at five percent). On the other hand the proportion of people working as corporate managers and directors in Aberdeen City (5%) is lower than that for Scotland and Great Britain (7%). Figure 3-7: Occupations (SOC 2010)
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2012 3.38 This evidence points to Aberdeen having labour market density or thickness, with a wide
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range of high skilled occupations available across a number of industrial sectors and businesses. There is a strong body of evidence indicating that labour markets of this type tend to be stronger poles of attraction for people considering moving to and settling in an area since they offer better employment prospects and a higher degree of mobility within the labour market. Aberdeen’s recent record of attracting migrants from the UK and overseas, and strong demand for housing in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, are also likely to reflect the depth of its labour market and employment base.
Housing Markets
3.39 The housing domain of the Scottish IMD 2012 (which looks at the number of persons in households that are overcrowded as well as the number of persons in households without central heating) indicates that over 15% of all the data-zones in Aberdeen City are within the 15% most deprived in Scotland. Once again, none of the data-zones within the Danestone and Bridge of Don impact area were within the 15% most deprived in Scotland. Figure 3-8: Housing Deprivation, Scottish IMD 2012
Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2012
3.40 Over the period April to June 2012 the average price paid for a house in Scotland was £180,341. Average house prices experienced a drop of over one percent over the same period in 2011.
3.41 The average price paid for a detached house in Aberdeen City between April and June 2012 was over £342,000. There was no change in the average price for detached houses over the previous 12 months, whereas house prices in Aberdeenshire and Scotland fell by nine percent and three percent respectively. The average price of a semi-detached home in Aberdeen City dropped by over four percent, compared with 2011 prices.
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Table 3.15: Average house prices, April to June 2012 Average Price Paid Annual Change (April-June 2012) Aberdeen City £342,832 0.0% Detached Aberdeenshire £237,754 -9.0% Scotland £224,602 -2.8% Aberdeen City £214,572 -4.4% Semi-detached Aberdeenshire £169,466 +0.4% Scotland £142,434 +1.7% Aberdeen City £161,438 -7.0% Terraced Aberdeenshire £138,199 -1.8% Scotland £123,373 -1.8% Source: Quarterly House Price Statistical Report, April-June 2012
3.42 As the table above indicates house prices in Aberdeen City are generally higher than in either Aberdeenshire or the average paid in Scotland. A house in Aberdeen City is typically sold for a price that is between 30% to 40% higher than that for a house in Aberdeenshire, and over 50% higher than the average in Scotland. While reflecting the economy’s strength, higher house prices in Aberdeen City may reduce affordability. This, combined with a restricted supply in the release of new housing stock (discussed below) may be an issue for some, especially key workers and public sector employees.
3.43 The table below shows how household tenure for owner occupied, social rented and private rented changed between 1999 and 2010. The rate of owner occupied houses is usually a good indication of mortgage affordability. In Aberdeen City, the averages for owner occupied houses between 1999 and 2010 were typically below those for both Aberdeenshire and Scotland.
3.44 On the other hand, the average number of privately rented households in the City is higher than that for both Aberdeenshire and Scotland. This indicates a lack of affordable homes in the Aberdeen market, highlighting the differences in prices paid for houses in the City, Aberdeenshire and Scotland.
Table 3.16: Household tenure change 1999 to 2010 1999/2000 2001/2002 2003/2004 2005/2006 2007/2008 2009/2010 Aberdeen City 60% 61% 64% 62% 65% 60% Owner Aberdeenshire 69% 74% 73% 77% 75% 74% Occupied Scotland 62% 64% 65% 66% 66% 65% Aberdeen City 30% 28% 27% 25% 24% 24% Social Aberdeenshire 21% 18% 17% 15% 15% 17% Rented Scotland 31% 28% 27% 25% 23% 22% Aberdeen City 8% 9% 8% 11% 9% 15% Private Aberdeenshire 6% 6% 7% 6% 8% 8% Rented Scotland 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% Source: Scottish Housing Survey 2009/2010
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Housing Completions
3.45 The 2011 update of the Housing Need and Demand Assessment reports that in 2009 the City and Shire area’s housing stock was around 217,300 units. Change in the housing stock between 2003 and 2009 in the Aberdeen City and Shire area (+7%) was just slightly higher than that for Scotland.
Table 3.17: Housing Stock in the Aberdeen Housing Market Area (HMA) 2003 & 2009 Housing Stock 2003 Housing Stock 2009 Change 2003-09 Aberdeen City 106,059 110,709 +4.2% Aberdeenshire 97,069 106,552 +8.9% Aberdeen City & Shire 203,139 217,261 +6.5% Aberdeen HMA 146,679 157,212 +6.7% Rural HMA 56,506 60,049 +5.9% Scotland 2,341,077 2,479,954 +5.6% Source: Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2011
3.46 Housing completions between 2000/01 to 2010/11 fluctuated greatly depending on the market at the time and the ability to access finance. On average there were around 600 housing completions in Aberdeen City and around 1,500 completions in Aberdeenshire. The average number of annual housing completions in the Aberdeen City and Shire area between 2000/01 and 2010/11 was around 2,100 houses.
Table 3.18: Housing Completions 2000 to 2011 Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Aberdeen City & Shire 2000/01 775 942 1,717 2001/02 618 1,447 2,065 2002/03 599 1,345 1,944 2003/04 588 1,471 2,159 2004/05 1,002 1,768 2,880 2005/06 727 1,772 2,499 2006/07 346 1,284 1,630 2007/08 928 1,528 2,453 2008/09 258 1,509 1,767 2009/10 280 1,793 2,073 2010/11 503 1,092 1,595 Average per year 602 1,450 2,071 Source: Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2011
Housing Requirements
3.47 The Aberdeen City and Shire Housing Need and Demand Assessment provides the evidence base needed to inform the City and Shire’s Strategic Development Plans, and aims to inform policy discussions and decisions in relation to both market and affordable housing. The table below, taken from the Housing Need and Demand Assessment, indicates that by 2033, 56,700 additional houses will be required in the Aberdeen City and Shire area.
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3.48 Around 68% of the new houses are expected to be required in Aberdeen City’s Housing Market Area (HMA) – usually defined as the City along with a 30 km radius into Aberdeenshire. This means that around 12,000 of the new houses in Aberdeenshire are to be provided within a 30 km hinterland of the City, with the rest provided elsewhere in the shire where major housing concentrations already exist.
Table 3.19: Housing Requirements by 5 year periods 2008-2013 2013-2018 2018-2023 2023-2028 2028-2033 Total Aberdeen City 5,386 5,723 4,976 4,999 5,646 26,730 Aberdeenshire 6,317 6,207 5,736 5,197 4,543 28,000 Aberdeen City & Shire 11,703 11,930 10,712 10,196 10,189 56,730 City HMA 8,140 8,422 7,440 7,215 7,561 38,778 Rural HMA 3,563 3,508 3,272 2,918 2,628 15,952 Source: Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2011
3.49 Figure 3-9 below shows housing requirements in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire between 2008/09 and 2032/33 along with the latest available housing completion numbers. It indicates that housing completions in Aberdeenshire outstripped need by circa 360 units in 2010/11, whereas there was a shortfall of around 1,400 units in Aberdeen City.
Figure 3-9: Housing requirements for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire vs. housing completions
Source: Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2011
3.50 Taken together current housing completion rates indicate that the Aberdeen City and Shire area already has an under-provision of around 1,000 houses. In order for the Aberdeen City and Shire area to keep up with housing demand, 2,300 units need to be built annually. Given the shortfall in housing completion rates in Aberdeen City, the ability of the wider City region to respond to future housing need may be severely affected.
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Figure 3-10: Housing completions over projected need for the Aberdeen City and Shire area, 2009 to 2011
Source: Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2011
Commercial Property & Retail
3.51 The most recent Employment Land Audit for the Aberdeen City and Shire region (published in 2012) identifies 926 Ha of established employment land in the City region, and 522 Ha of marketable land. Around a quarter of all the marketable land supply (125 Ha) in the City and Shire region is available in Aberdeen City. Of this, 58 Ha (46%) is immediately available for development. Table 3.20: Employment Land Supply, 2012 Established Constrained Marketable Immediately Under Supply Supply Supply Available Construction Aberdeen City 298 Ha 147 Ha 125 Ha 58 Ha 10 Ha Aberdeenshire 628 Ha 231 Ha 397 Ha 29 Ha 12 Ha Aberdeen City & 926 Ha 378 Ha 522 Ha 87 Ha 22 Ha Shire Source: Aberdeenshire County Council, Employment Land Audit, 2012
3.52 The audit has highlighted that in Aberdeen City the level of established land supply has increased substantially since 2011, with sites coming forward following the adoption of the Aberdeen Local Development Plan (including provision at Grandhome). The amount of established land in Aberdeen City has increased by 88 hectares over the last year (+42%). In Aberdeenshire there has been an increase of 84% in the total area of established land, 287 hectares more than in 2011. However, while established land has increased significantly, the amount of constrained land in Aberdeen City has increased by approximately 44 hectares or 43% since 2011. In Aberdeenshire it has increased by approximately 101 hectares (+78%).
3.53 Marketable land supply in Aberdeen City and Shire has also risen significantly between 2011
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and 2012 (an increase of 76%). This is due to some sites progressing quickly following the adoption of the Local Development Plan. There are new marketable sites in a wide range of locations in Aberdeenshire including Peterhead, Ellon, Westhill and Portlethen, whilst in Aberdeen City 18 hectares are now available at Prime 4 Kingswells and around 17 hectares at ABZ Dyce Drive by the airport.
3.54 The Main Issues Report of the Aberdeen Local Development Plan argued that by 2035 over 105 Ha of employment land allowances are needed, and an additional 70 Ha of strategic land reserve for employment purposes are needed between 2024 and 2030. The proposed development at Grandhome was identified as a preferred option within the North Danestone and Middleton Park growth area, and the 5.5 Ha of identified employment land is looked at very positively.
3.55 Historic take up of land in the Danestone and Bridge of Don local impact area has been largely linked to specific science and energy developments. Over the past ten years 5.5 Ha were developed across two sites – the Science and Energy Park (3.8 Ha) and the Science and Technology Park (1.7 Ha).
3.56 Given the increase in the current availability of marketable land supply, as well as land that is immediately available for development (87 Ha), it is likely that Aberdeen City and the wider city region now have a much larger supply of employment land, compared with the position in recent years, to meet the growth aspirations identified in the Main Issues Report.
Retail
3.57 Aberdeen City holds a dominant position in the North East of Scotland for shopping and attracts people from well beyond the City boundary. In 2009 it was ranked as the 20th best performing retail centre in the United Kingdom, and third-best in Scotland.
3.58 The following table summarises the retail provision in the local area centres of Danestone, Middleton Park (Bridge of Don) and Dyce. All three centres are District Shopping Centres within the Aberdeen City retail hierarchy.
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Table 3.21: Retail provision in Danestone, Middleton Park (Bridge of Don) and Dyce Local Centre Units Floorspace Comments Danestone 8 units Tesco • Located on the western extent of the residential dominated by a (7,118 sqm) suburb. large Tesco + • Dominated by a large Tesco and a small number of 3 multiples and adjacent retail units, all of which are located in an 4 independent off street located with dedicated access and units. parking • Superstore is well connected for public and private mobility, but is not easily accessible for pedestrians from the surrounding residential area Middleton Park 8 units, ASDA • Located at the centre of Middleton Park suburb. (Bridge of Don) dominated by (3,300 sqm) • Based on an ASDA superstore with a series of an ASDA smaller units located immediately adjacent. superstore + • Parade of single-storey shops adjacent to ASDA has 3 multiples and recently been refurbished along with the 4 independent development of another unit. units. Dyce 15 units, ASDA • One large supermarket building with additional dominated by (4,000 sqm) small retail units located within ASDA which • Shopping centre does not have an identifiable operates from 4 “street” and the surroundings offer poor quality units + public realm and unobvious entrances for 3 multiples pedestrians not entering from the car park. 4 independent and 4 vacant units. Source: Town Centre Health Check
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4. Scheme Description
4.1 This section of the technical report sets out the proposed development parameters for the proposed Grandhome scheme. These have been developed by Duany Plater-Zyberk & Co and by Turnberry Consulting as part of the February 2013 Draft Masterplan.
4.2 The masterplan sets out that Grandhome has been designed with the principles of place making firmly at the forefront. It is a mixed-use development which promotes the design of sustainable neighbourhoods offering a range of housing types of various densities, as well as shops, community facilities, and employment opportunities. The masterplan also includes extensive green infrastructure and pedestrian and cycle amenities. The masterplanning approach seeks to lessen car dependency and to promote a new community amongst both residents and workers.
4.3 The proposed development masterplan has been designed to deliver a build period which will start in 2015 and is estimated to be completed by 2050. As the proposed development period covers 35 years, seven development phases have been proposed. For the purposes of the economic impact assessment, and the proposed planning application, these phases are grouped as follows:
• Phase 1: up to 500 residential units by 2018
• Phases 1-5: up to 4,700 residential units by 2038
• Phases 1-7: up to 7,000 residential units by 2050
4.4 A planning application for Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) for Phases 1-5 will be made by the Grandhome Trust. It is anticipated that a detailed planning application will follow for Phase 1. The technical report refers to the potential impacts under all of these scenarios (Phase 1, PPiP - Phase 1-5, and the full masterplan – Phases 1-7).
4.5 The following sections set out:
• Total new residential development by units and by phasing.
• Total proposed floorspace by employment and non-employment uses (excluding residential) by gross floorspace in square metres.
• Key uses proposed at Grandhome and what that means in terms of total scale of development (land required in hectares).
Total New Residential Development
4.6 The Grandhome masterplan outlines a vision for up to 7,000 new residential dwellings at Grandhome once the development is fully completed (by 2050). Phases 1-5 will deliver up to 4,700 homes, with Phases 5-7 delivering a further 2,300 homes. Within the total
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development around 25% of the new homes will be classified as affordable housing, and are likely to be a mix of social rented and intermediate housing units (e.g. mid-market rents).
4.7 Analysis of the spread of residential units across the phases of the development show that Phase 1 will lead to the development of 500 dwellings (7% of total dwellings). However, Phase 2 leads to significant further residential development – a further 1,800 new homes (approximately a quarter of all proposed residential development). The further phases of development (largely Phases 4 and 6-7) then deliver a broadly similar level of development for the remainder of the development period.
Table 4.1: Residential Units by Phase and by Planning Application Total Market Affordable Phase 1 (Future Detailed 500 376 124 Planning Application) Phase 2 1,800 1,350 450 Phase 3 500 375 125 Phase 4 1,100 825 275 Phase 5 800 600 200 Phase 6 1,250 938 313 Phase 7 1,050 788 263
Total PPiP (Ph1-5) 4,700 3,526 1,174 Phases 1-7 7,000 5,251 1,749 Source: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Co, Turnberry Consulting
Total Employment and Non-Employment Uses Floorspace
4.8 The table below provides a summary of the proposed employment uses and gross floorspace at Grandhome. This is summarised in total, and by uses for the phases of development. In summary, the total floorspace developed under the PPiP application (Phases 1-5) will be 80,712 sqm. This rises to 86,061 sqm when all seven phases are completed. The total floorspace developed solely under Phase 1 is modest, at just 1,455 sqm.
4.9 If schools and other civic/community floorspace are set aside, the total proposed ‘mainstream’ employment generating floorspace falls to 54,032 sqm under the PPiP application, and 55,556 sqm under Phases 1-7. Under Phase 1 it is just 1,215 sqm.
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Table 4.2: Summary of Employment Generating Floorspace GFA (sqm) Phase 1 Planning Phases 1-7 Class Use Type Permission in Principle (PPiP) – Phases 1-5 1 Retail Convenience 729 9,886 10,801 Comparison 0 5,000 5,000 Bulky 0 5,000 5,000 Supermarket 0 2,700 2,700 Sub-total 729 22,586 23,501 2 Financial & Professional 122 1,648 1,800 3 Food & Drink 365 4,943 5,400 4 Business (Office) 0 18,155 18,155 5 Industrial 0 0 0 6 Distribution 0 0 0 7 Hotels 0 4,500 4,500 8 Residential Institution 0 0 0 9 Residential 0 0 0 10 Non-Residential Civic/Community 240 4,930 5,380 Institution Building School 0 21,750 25,125 Sub-total 240 26,680 30,505 11 Assembly & Leisure 0 2,200 2,200 Sui Generis 0 0 0 Total 1,455 80,712 86,061 Total (minus Non-Residential Institutions) 1,215 54,032 55,556 Source: Turnberry Consulting/Regeneris Consulting
4.10 Taking all employment generating floorspace into account, it is clear that Retailing (including supermarkets, convenience, comparison, and bulky comparison) account for over a quarter of all floorspace in the overall masterplan (27%). Business (office) floorspace, including floorspace at the employment park, accounts for around a fifth of all floorspace in the overall masterplan scenario (21%). Non-residential intuitions (e.g. schools and civic/community buildings) account for just over a third of all floorspace (37%).
4.11 Developments in Phase 2 of the proposed scheme deliver the greatest share of all employment floorspace. This phase delivers around 50% of all floorspace, given the development of the main town centre for Grandhome, along with schools and civic/community floorspace. Phase 3, which includes the development of the 5 hectare employment park accounts for around 40% of all floorspace.
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Table 4.3:Proportion of Floorspace by Uses Class Use Proportion of Gross Floor Areas Phase 1 Phases 1 - 5 Phases 1 - 7 1 Retail 50% 28% 27% 2 Financial & Professional 8% 2% 2% 3 Food & Drink 25% 6% 6% 4 Business (Office) 0% 22% 21% 5 Industrial 0% 0% 0% 6 Distribution 0% 0% 0% 7 Hotels 0% 6% 5% 8 Residential Institution 0% 0% 0% 9 Residential 0% 0% 0% 10 Non-Residential Institution 16% 33% 35% 11 Assembly & Leisure 0% 3% 3% Sui Generis 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: Turnberry Consulting/Regeneris Consulting
Uses by Phase and Land Requirements
4.12 The total development scheme is anticipated to require 147 hectares of land. Just under 80% of the total Grandhome site will be developed for residential uses (115ha). Around 12% will be used for School sites (although this could be subject to further change), while the Business Park will require 3% of the total land at Grandhome (c 4.4 hectares)
Table 4.4: Total and Phased Development Area (Hectares) Per Use PH1 PH2 PH3-A PH3-B PH4 PH5 PH6 PH7 Total % of total (ha) Area Residential Areas 10.90 20.92 0.00 8.00 18.56 15.72 18.08 23.02 115.2 78.5% Commercial at Ground Floor 0.26 3.62 0.00 0.33 0.15 0.29 0.17 0.33 5.15 3.5% Hotel 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.4% Gym 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.1% Health Clinic 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 0.1% Cinema/Arts Centre 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.2% Supermarket 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.5% Business Park 0.00 0.52 3.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.41 3.0% School Sites 0.00 3.67 0.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 18 12.3% Other community/ leisure 0.08 0.43 0.00 0.11 0.26 0.46 0.00 0.00 1.34 0.9% uses Community Parking 0.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.5% Total 146.8 100% Source: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Co, Turnberry Consulting
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5. Grandhome Population Estimates
5.1 The purpose of this section of the technical report is to set out the potential size and broad characteristics of Grandhome’s potential resident population at the various stages of the development, including its working-age population, economically active population, and the proportion of residents in higher managerial and professional occupations. The section also provides an overview of the potential level of household expenditure which could be supported in the local and Aberdeen economy as a result of the development, as well as an estimate of the total level of employment that this could support.
5.2 The population and residential expenditure estimates are presented for Phase 1 (by 2018), Phases 1-5 (the application for Planning Permission in Principle, 2015-2038), and Phases 1-7 (the total masterplanned development completed by 2050).
Total Population
5.3 To estimate population for the Grandhome scheme a mix of housing types was prepared by Turnberry Consulting. This mix of housing is driven by number of bedrooms and type of dwelling (i.e. flat, mews, semi-detached and detached).
5.4 To estimate population by housing type we have relied on using the English Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) evidence on average residents per type of dwelling. This is taken from the English Survey of Housing which is the most robust source of data in England on this issue. There does not appear to be a Scottish equivalent which matches the comprehensive nature of this survey. Table 5.1 highlights the mix of development and the total population. In summary:
• Around 11,600 residents as a result of the first five phases of development (4,700 new homes). Of these, approximately 1,250 residents will occur as a result of the 500 homes under Phase 1.
• Around 17,300 new residents on completion of Grandhome (7,000 new homes).
5.5 This suggests, given the mix of property types proposed at Grandhome, that the average number of residents per dwelling is 2.5 residents per dwelling.
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Table 5.1: Number of Dwellings and Estimated Population Type Of Dwelling Phase 1 PPiP – Phases 1-5 Phases 1-7 Average number No Units Estimated No Units Estimated No Estimated of Population Population Units Population residents 1 bed Flat 35 45 392 501 553 708 1.3 1 bed Mews 15 19 168 215 238 305 1.3 2 bed Flat 30 55 309 568 447 822 1.8 3 bed Flat 0 - - - - - 2.9 2 bed Mews 30 55 309 571 447 826 1.8 3 bed Mews 80 204 680 1,736 1,048 2,676 2.6 4 bed Mews 25 80 235 749 351 1,119 3.2 2 bed Semi 40 74 412 761 596 1,101 1.8 3 bed Semi 80 204 680 1,736 1,048 2,676 2.6 4 bed Semi 50 159 470 1,498 700 2,231 3.2 5 bed Semi 5 18 47 173 71 262 3.7 3 bed Detached 40 102 340 868 524 1,338 2.6 4 bed Detached 50 159 470 1,498 700 2,231 3.2 5 bed Detached 20 74 188 693 280 1,032 3.7 Total 500 1,250 4,700 11,569 7,000 17,327 2.5 Source: Regeneris Consulting based on the DCLG Survey of English Housing – 2012 update on average household size. There does not appear to be an equivalent Scottish Survey of Housing which identifies average number of residents by dwelling type. Detailed results from the Scottish Census 2011 have not yet been released.
Labour Market Impacts
5.6 The resident population of Grandhome would make a significant contribution to the size and depth of Aberdeen’s labour force. With the city and the wider Aberdeenshire area seeking to sustain its strong economic performance in the long term and expand its employment base, adding to the supply of labour and the quality of the labour force will be critical.
5.7 There is some uncertainty about how the characteristics of the development’s resident population would change over the long term. However, it is possible to provide a broad estimate of the size of its working age population, a good indicator of its contribution to the labour force in the area. Two main sources of data have been used to generate estimates of the working age population:
• Evidence on working age population from the 2010 ONS sub-national population projections for Aberdeen covering a period up to 2035.
• ONS mid-year population estimates for Aberdeen.
5.8 Table 5.2 summarises the key potential labour market impacts of the proposed development. It shows a range of possible effects based on:
• A working age population based on the current (2012) proportion of working age residents in Aberdeen City (70%), and an estimate based on the higher rate of working age residents consistent with areas in which the majority of properties are
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owner occupied (80%).
• Economic activity rates of 75%, which is close to the figure at which the UK economy was assumed to be in a position of near full employment in 2007, and a higher figure of 80% to reflect an area with a young population in a high performing economy.
• A population in which 30% of residents are in higher managerial and professional occupations based on Annual Population Survey data for areas with similar characteristics to that of the proposed development. Table 5.2: Summary of Key Labour Market Impacts 70% WAP 80% WAP Phase 1 PPiP – Phases 1-7 Phase 1 PPiP – Phases 1-7 Phases 1-5 Phases 1-5
Working Age Population 875 8,098 12,129 1,000 9,255 13,862 Economically Active@75% 656 6,074 9,097 750 6,941 10,396 Economically Active@80% 700 6,479 9,703 800 7,404 11,090 Higher Managerial and 195 to 1,820 to 2,730 to 225 to 2,080 to 3,120 to Professionals 210 1,940 2,910 240 2,220 3,330 Sources: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates and Sub-national Population Projections; Annual Population Survey
Expenditure Impacts of Resident Population
5.9 The creation of up to 7,000 new dwellings has the potential to make a significant contribution to supporting the economy of the local area (Bridge of Don/Danestone) and the wider Aberdeen City economy by increasing the amount of retail and other spend by Grandhome households. It could potentially give a significant boost to convenience spend in the local area (on grocery items) and would also support comparison expenditure. While this expenditure would support employment, it should be noted that we must be careful not to double count employment impacts. The following section quantifies the extent of employment supported by the development of retail and other leisure floorspace. This assessment only provides an overview of the totality of employment supported by expenditure of the households.
5.10 The following table highlights the expenditure that we have modelled using our in house impact model. Our modelling suggests that:
• Under Phase 1 we estimate that the 500 households could potentially generate a total annual expenditure, in current prices, of £12m per annum. We estimate that around £3m of this would be spent locally, directly supporting around 22 FTE direct jobs (around 24 FTE jobs including multiplier effects). Across Aberdeen the impact is greater totalling £5.5m of expenditure, supporting around 54 FTE direct jobs (around 67 FTE jobs including multiplier effects).
• Under Phases 1-5, the PPiP application, we estimate the 4,700 households could potentially generate a total annual expenditure, in current prices, of £110m per annum. We estimate that around £26m of this would be spent locally, directly
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supporting around 205 FTE direct jobs (around 225 FTE jobs including multiplier effects). Across Aberdeen the impact is greater totalling £51m of expenditure, supporting around 500 FTE direct jobs (around 625 FTE jobs including multiplier effects).
• Under Phases 1-7, we estimate that 7,000 households could generate a total annual expenditure, in current prices, of £164m per annum. We estimate that around £39m of this would be spent locally, directly supporting around 310 FTE direct jobs (around 339 FTE jobs including multiplier effects). Across Aberdeen the impact is greater totalling £76m of expenditure, supporting around 750FTE direct jobs (around 930 FTE jobs including multiplier effects).
Table 5.3: Local Expenditure Effects Total Expenditure Employment Impacts (FTEs) (millions) Direct Induced Total Impact Impact Phase 1 (future detailed planning £12 application) Bridge of Don/Danestone £2.8 22 2 24 Aberdeen £5.5 54 13 67 Phases 1-5 (the PPiP application) £110 Bridge of Don/Danestone £26 206 21 227 Aberdeen £51 500 125 625 Phases 1-7 £164 Bridge of Don/Danestone £39 308 31 339 Aberdeen £76 746 187 933 Source: Calculations by Regeneris Consulting based on evidence from the UK Household Family Expenditure Survey and evidence on shopping patterns of Aberdeen residents.
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6. Employment Impacts
Headline Employment Impacts
6.1 Employment impacts have been estimated for the Grandhome development based on the employment floorspace outlined as part of the draft masterplan prepared by Duany Plater- Zyberk & Co, in February 2013.
6.2 For assessment purposes, it is assumed that construction of the PPiP scheme will start in 2015, with Phase 1 completed in 2018 and Phase 5 in 2038, and that the proposed development (Phases 1-7) will be completed in 2050. The headline employment impacts are as follows:
Table 6.1: Headline Employment Impacts by Assessment Scenario Phasing Gross Additional Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Jobs Phase 1 (future detailed planning application) 50 Phases 1-5 (planning permission in principle) 2,150 Phases 1-7 2,210 Source: Regeneris Consulting
Assumptions
Scale of Employment Floorspace
6.3 The starting point in modelling employment impacts is to establish the scale of the commercial development which is proposed at Grandhome. This has been completed as part of the masterplanning process, with the quantum of all employment generating floorspace at Grandhome established (including civic, community and educational floorspace which have associated employment generation). This quantum has been based on judgements made by the consultant design team on total land and market requirements for different uses within the main transect areas of the development site, as well as within the employment park – the 5 hectare ‘Special District’.
6.4 The following table provides a summary of the proposed employment uses and floorspace at Grandhome. This is summarised in total and by uses for the phases of development. In summary, the total floorspace developed under Phase 1 will be 1,455 sqm; under the PPiP application it will be 80,712 sqm; and by the completion of the development it will be 86,061 sqm.
6.5 If schools and other civic/community floorspace are set aside, the total proposed ‘mainstream’ employment generating floorspace falls to 1,215 sqm in Phase 1; 54,032 sqm in Phase 1-5 (PPiP), and 55,556 sqm under Phases 1-72.
2 Employment associated with schools and other civic or social and community infrastructure floorspace has been dealt with separately from what is considered more mainstream employment generating floorspace.
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Table 6.2: Summary of Employment Generating Floorspace GFA (sqm) Class Use Type Phase 1 PPiP – Phases 1-7 Phases 1-5 1 Retail Convenience 729 9,886 10,801 Comparison 0 5,000 5,000 Bulky 0 5,000 5,000 Supermarket 0 2,700 2,700 Sub-total 729 22,586 23,501 2 Financial & Professional 122 1,648 1,800 3 Food & Drink 365 4,943 5,400 4 Business (Office) 0 18,155 18,155 5 Industrial 0 0 0 6 Distribution 0 0 0 7 Hotels 0 4,500 4,500 10 Non-Residential Civic/Community 240 4,930 5,380 Institution Building School 0 21,750 25,125 Sub-total 240 26,680 30,505 11 Assembly & Leisure 0 2,200 2,200 Sui Generis 0 0 0 Total 1,455 80,712 86,061 Total (minus Non-Residential Institutions) 1,215 54,032 55,556 Source: Turnberry Consulting/Regeneris Consulting
6.6 Taking all employment generating floorspace into account, it is clear that Retailing (including supermarkets, convenience, comparison, and bulky comparison) account for over a quarter of all floorspace in the overall masterplan (27%). Business (office) floorspace, including floorspace at the employment park, accounts for around a fifth of all floorspace in the overall masterplan scenario (21%). Non-residential intuitions (e.g. schools and civic/community buildings) account for just over a third of all floorspace (37%).
6.7 Developments in Phase 2 of the proposed scheme deliver the greatest share of all employment floorspace. This phase delivers around 50% of all floorspace, given the development of the main town centre for Grandhome, along with schools and civic/community floorspace. Phase 3, which includes the development of the 5 hectare employment park accounts for around 40% of all floorspace.
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Table 6.3:Proportion of Employment Floorspace by Uses Class Use Proportion of Gross Floor Areas Phase 1 Phases 1 - 5 Phases 1 - 7 1 Retail 50% 28% 27% 2 Financial & Professional 8% 2% 2% 3 Food & Drink 25% 6% 6% 4 Business (Office) 0% 22% 21% 5 Industrial 0% 0% 0% 6 Distribution 0% 0% 0% 7 Hotels 0% 6% 5% 10 Non-Residential Institution 16% 33% 35% 11 Assembly & Leisure 0% 3% 3% Sui Generis 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: Turnberry Consulting/Regeneris Consulting
Key Employment Floorspace Assumptions
6.8 Prior to estimating employment impacts there is a requirement to convert the gross planned floorspace areas within the proposed development scheme into floorspace which is useable for employment generating activities. For most employment uses this typically means converting gross external floorspace into either net or gross internal areas (which will depend on the types of activities undertaken within the space). Other considerations include the level of occupancy across all floorspace.
• Net sales area for retail floorspace: For retail, the Regeneris Consulting model uses a net sales area figure of 70% of gross floorspace for supermarket and convenience floorspace, and 85% for other retail (e.g. comparison and bulky comparison).
• Net internal area for commercial floorspace: The model assumes that the net internal area of a commercial building is 85% of the gross area of the building.
• Gross internal area for assembly/leisure uses: The model assumed that the gross internal area of buildings for assembly/leisure uses (e.g. cinemas, gyms) will be 95% of the gross external area.
• Occupancy levels: The model assumes throughout that 85% of all commercial premises in the Grandhome settlement are occupied at any given point in time. The exception to this is the proposed supermarket, where it has been assumed that a single occupier takes the space (i.e. 100% occupied).
Converting Floorspace to Employment Estimates
6.9 The next step in employment impact modelling is to translate this adjusted floorspace estimates into employment estimates. These employment estimates represent the volume of employment that could be accommodated within the proposed development, given the
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assumptions about the amount and type of floorspace and how much of it is occupied at a given point in time. Two key steps are used:
• Employment densities: To assess how much employment is implied by occupied floorspace, evidence on employment densities, taken from research undertaken by the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) in England and Wales in 2010, has been used. This is regarded as the most authoritative source of employment density benchmarks which are currently available, and without a Scottish equivalent, this evidence base has been used in this assessment.
• Single or multiple storeys: Turnberry and the wider design and planning team have calculated total floorspace. Their calculations make provision for both single and multiple storeys throughout the different uses within the development scheme.
6.10 The main employment densities assumptions, for the proposed uses at Grandhome, are set out in the Table 6.4 below.
Table 6.4: Assumed Employment Densities Scottish Use Class Employment Density (sqm per FTE) Class 1 Retail Convenience 19 Comparison 19 Bulky 90 Supermarket 17 Class 2 Financial and Professional 16 Class 3 Food and Drink 18 Class 4 (office) 12 Class 7 hotel (FTEs per bed) 0.5 Class 10 Non-residential Institution Various potential uses - Crèches, day nurseries, 65 day centres, museums, public libraries, reading A blended employment density given the range of rooms, art galleries uses proposed for this type of floorspace Schools Employment calculated separately – see Section 7 Class 11 Assembly & leisure Gym 65 Cinema/Culture Centre 90 Class 11 Library 36 Source: Employment Densities Guide, Homes and Communities Agency, 2010, 2nd Edition Note: Class 10 employment density is taken as a potential level. The range of uses is still to be determined. Employment in social and community infrastructure (education and health) are based on ratios of population to FTE jobs and are presented in Section 7. Hotel assumption also taken from the HCA guidance (3* hotel).
Social and Community Infrastructure Employment
6.11 Employment in social and community infrastructure activities has been determined by the planned provision of schools, GP and other health related services. Other community facilities (e.g. leisure centres, libraries etc) were considered within the broader context of
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the mainstream employment impact assessment.
6.12 There have been on-going discussions with Aberdeen City Council on a range of SCI requirements, particularly around education provision. The following table provides an overview of what the discussions have led to in terms of the proposals within the masterplan (to date).The employment impacts associated with SCI are presented in the following section.
Table 6.5: Proposed SCI Provision, February 2013 SCI Delivery Phase Education Grandhome Primary School Phase 2 Clerkhill Community Campus (includes Primary School and Academy, Phase 3 as well as community sports facilities) Cothill Primary School Phase 6 NHS 16 Chair Health Centre Phases 2-5 Source: Turnberry Consulting
Employment Impacts
6.13 Following the methodological approach set out above, it is estimated that the proposed mixed-use Grandhome development scheme will deliver significant levels of gross additional employment to the City of Aberdeen over the period to 2050 (the identified completion date). Regeneris Consulting estimate that:
• Approximately 2,160 gross additional FTE jobs will be created as part of the PPiP planning application (i.e. during Phases 1-5). Only around 50 gross additional FTE jobs would be supported during Phase 1.
• Approximately 2,220 gross additional FTE jobs will be created once the development has been completed.
6.14 Given that the latter phases of the development (Phases 6 and 7) are largely focussed on further residential development, there is only expected to be a modest increase (+60 gross FTE additional jobs) in employment associated with neighbourhood retail, leisure and other business floorspace.
6.15 The majority of employment generation associated with the proposed development scheme is delivered as a result of Phases 2 and 3 – these phases account for around 95% of all proposed floorspace. The table, below, presents the proportion of employment impacts by use class3. Two uses dominate the creation of employment at Grandhome:
• Office floorspace, largely dominated by the floorspace with the business park,
3 Under Phase 1 approximately half of the 47 FTE jobs are supported via convenience retail, while the remaining jobs are supported via food and drink, professional services, and civic/community roles.
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accounts for just over half of all gross additional jobs.
• Retail employment (covering convenience, comparison and bulky goods) accounts for around 30% of all gross additional jobs at Grandhome.
Table 6.6: Summary Total Gross Employment (FTE jobs) for Phase 1 , Phases 1-5 (PIP) and Phases 1-7 Class Use Type Gross FTE Jobs Supported Phase 1 Phases 1- Phases 1-7 Increase as a 5 (PPiP) result of Ph 6 & 7 1 Retail Convenience 23 310 338 29 Comparison 0 190 190 0 Bulky 0 40 40 0 Supermarket 0 111 111 0 Sub-total 23 651 680 29 2 Financial & 5 74 81 7 Professional 3 Food & Drink 15 198 217 18 4 Business (Office) 0 1093 1093 0 5 Industrial 0 0 0 0 6 Distribution 0 0 0 0 7 Hotels 0 38 38 0 10 Non-Residential Civic/Community 4 76 83 7 Institution Building School 0 0 0 0 Sub-total 4 76 83 7 11 Assembly & Leisure 0 29 29 0 Sui Generis 0 0 0 0 Total 47 2,159 2,220 61 Source: Regeneris Consulting
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Table 6.7: Proportion of Gross Additional Employment by Use Class, Phases 1-5 and Phases 1-7 Class Use PiP Overall Masterplan Ph 1 - 5 Ph 1 - 7 % of FTE jobs by Use Class % of FTE jobs by Use Class
1 Retail 30% 31% 2 Financial & Professional 3% 4% 3 Food & Drink 9% 10% 4 Business (Office) 51% 49% 5 Industrial 0% 0% 6 Distribution 0% 0% 7 Hotels 2% 2% 10 Non-Residential Institution 4% 4% 11 Assembly & Leisure 1% 1% Sui Generis 0% 0% Total 100% 100% Source: Regeneris Consulting
Construction Employment Impacts
6.16 The proposed development also represents a substantial potential investment in construction of housing, commercial premises and infrastructure over an extended period. This investment would support employment in a wide range of construction related occupations including:
• Jobs based on the site involved in the full range of house building activity, site preparation and related infrastructure development. Occupations would range from elementary skilled jobs to site managers and specialist trades.
• Jobs based in the local area (ie Aberdeen) but off site including those related to the design, planning and management of development.
• Jobs located elsewhere linked to a similar range of functions.
6.17 At this stage, no headline construction costs have been prepared for Grandhome by a quantity surveyor. However, for the purposes of this assessment it has been possible to use benchmark construction cost data (£ per sqm benchmarks from SPONS) to come to an indicative view on broad construction costs for: (a) the housing components of the masterplan; and (b) the employment floorspace. Best fit construction cost categories were selected where required, while costs were adjusted, in line with SPONS guidance, to make allowances for preliminaries and external works associated with the housing and floorspace elements.
6.18 However, the total cost estimates and employment estimates presented here do not reflect the total scheme. Some further costs have not been identified. As well as the housing and employment floorspace, there will be significant further costs, we envisage, in the construction of roads, pathways, mains sewerage and services, and other services to support
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the new community. As such, this assessment of construction costs and construction employment impacts could be under-estimated.
6.19 Based on these estimates, the total construction cost for the Grandhome scheme could be in the region of £990m. This level of construction expenditure has the potential to support approximately 550 temporary construction jobs per annum. These jobs would be on-site jobs, as well as jobs supported in the construction supply chain.
Table 6.8: Temporary Construction Employment Estimates (Average Jobs per Annum) Key Indicators Phase 1 Phases 1-5 Phases 1-7 (2015-2018) (PPiP 2015- (2015- 2038) 2050)
Construction cost estimates (residential) £62m £570m £854m Average construction employment per annum 410 495 486 (supported by residential) Construction cost estimates (employment floorspace) £2m £126m £136m Average construction employment per annum 11 92 65 (supported by employment floorspace) Total indicative construction cost estimates (excluding £64m £696m £990m wider site infrastructure and services) Total construction Employment (average jobs per 421 587 551 annum) Note: Construction periods: Phase 1 = 3 years (2015-2018), Phases 1-5 (PPiP) = 23 years (2015-2038), Phases 1-7 = 35 years (2015-2050). Source: Regeneris Consulting
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7. Social & Community Infrastructure Assessment
7.1 The masterplan for the proposed development includes a wide range of social and community infrastructure (SCI). This is central to the design of Grandhome, and important to the way it would function as a settlement. The provision of social and community infrastructure on the site would serve residents of Grandhome but would have a role to play in expanding the provision of services and facilities for the residents of the wider area.
7.2 The nature, scale and type of SCI provision for the Grandhome development is currently at the planning stage. However, it is set to provide a comprehensive range of facilities and services including:
• Primary schools and academy (secondary) facilities
• A community campus (library, sports facilities) and which may also be the site for some of the schools
• Health facilities, including General Practitioner provision
• Extensive managed open spaces including parks and sports facilities
7.3 The purpose of this section is to provide an assessment of the potential impacts of the provision of SCI at Grandhome. First, it provides a commentary on the proposed supply in the context of existing provision in the surrounding Danestone and Bridge of Don area. Second, it explores in more detail the potential employment impacts of the proposed facilities and services.
Proposed Social and Community Infrastructure
7.4 There have been on-going discussions with Aberdeen City Council on a range of SCI requirements, particularly around education provision. The following table provides an overview of what the discussions have led to in terms of the proposals within the masterplan (to date).
Table 7.1: Proposed SCI Provision SCI Delivery Phase Education Grandhome Primary School Phase 2 Clerkhill Community Campus (includes Primary School and Academy, Phase 3 as well as community sports facilities) Cothill Primary School Phase 6 NHS 16 Chair Health Centre Phases 2-5
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Source: Turnberry Planning
Aberdeen City Services and Facilities
7.5 The provision of facilities at Grandhome will contribute to the supply of SCI available in the Bridge of Don and Danestone areas of Aberdeen City, while residents of the development would be expected to use some facilities elsewhere in the city, including this local area. This section briefly summarises current, local SCI provision.
Health Care
7.6 Grandhome’s health facilities would be located within the Aberdeen City Community Health Partnership (CHP) area and the National Health Service Grampian area. One of 40 across Scotland, the Aberdeen City CHP is responsible for the management of health services delivered in the community, and for ensuring an integrated approach to primary and secondary health and social care. Health facilities and services at Grandhome would therefore fall under its auspices.
7.7 The development of health facilities for Grandhome would add to the established provision in Aberdeen. Table 7.2 below shows GP provision in the Aberdeen City CHP area within 3-4 miles of the Grandhome site.
Table 7.2: General Practitioners located 3-4 miles from proposed development GP Facility Number of GPs Oldmachar Medical Practice 5 partner GPs, 5 part time GPs Brimmond Medical Group 8 GPs Gilbert Road Medical Group 11 GPs Bucksburn Medical Practice 2 GPs Northfield/Mastrick Medical Practice 5 whole time equivalent GPs Scotstown Medical Group 9 GPs Woodside Medical Group 9 GPs Source: Regeneris Consulting Research, NHS Grampian website, practice websites
7.8 Aberdeen City and Scotland as a whole are comparatively well served with GP facilities, with the latest available analysis suggesting 80 GPs per 100,000 people.4 No significant shortage of GPs is currently evident in the area. A 16 chair practice at Grandhome serving a population estimated at 11,560 by 2038 would represent 1 GP per 720 residents for Phases 1-5 (PPiP) and c. 1,100 for the overall development, significantly below the 1,500 patients per GP recommended by the School of General Practitioners. This implies that the Grandhome facilities may also have the capacity to meet some demand from a wider area around the settlement.
7.9 The Grandhome development would be located c. 3.5 miles from the 900 bed Aberdeen Royal Infirmary and the network of health facilities located in and around the Foresterhill site. This would be the main hospital serving Grandhome’s residents providing an extensive
4 National Audit Office (2012)
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range of medical and clinical specialities including A&E and outpatient surgeries.
7.10 Other hospitals in the wider area include Royal Aberdeen Children’s Hospital, Aberdeen Maternity Hospital, Royal Cornhill Hospital (caring for people with mental health problems), Woodend Hospital (Aberdeen) and Woolmanhill Hospital (outpatient clinics in Aberdeen). The city provides other specialist health facilities that would also serve residents of Grandhome.
7.11 The Aberdeen City CHP has 37 listed dentistry practices, with 6 practices within reasonably close proximity of the proposed development. Following a period of investment to tackle waiting lists and improve salaried and NHS provision, no significant shortage of dentists is currently reported around the Bridge of Don/Danestone area.
7.12 With a typical patient list of 1,300-1,500 per dentist, a population of 11,560 would imply a requirement for 7-9 dentists to serve the population of Grandhome for Phases 1-5 (PPiP) stage (end of Phase 5) and 11-13 for the completed development. Given the mix of private and NHS provision in the area around the proposed development, it is difficult to assess the extent to which the needs of the resident population could be met by existing provision. Furthermore, private dentistry businesses might be expected to establish operations at Grandhome if there were sufficient demand to support such facilities.
7.13 Emergency services to the proposed development would be provided from within Aberdeen City as follows:
• Police – Grampian Police, with the area covered by the Aberdeen City North Command. The Police currently have a station at Bucksburn, to the south west of the Grandhome site.
• Ambulance – The proposed development would be covered by the Scottish Ambulance Service, North East divisions.
• Fire and Rescue – The development would be covered by Grampian Fire and Rescue Service.
Education
7.14 The scale and nature of education provision for Grandhome has been the subject of negotiations between the Grandhome Trust and Aberdeen City Council. Both parties have recognised that there is substantial unfilled capacity in the locality and provision of new schools to serve Grandhome should take this into account. In view of this, the Trust has agreed to provide a new primary school on the completion of 500 homes. Education-related employment within this new school cannot be stated with precision but advice from PSE Consulting suggests a twin-stream primary school could typically sustain between 25-35 jobs (teaching, teaching support staff and administration).
7.15 The Grandhome masterplan outlines proposals for up to three primary schools and an Academy for the overall development (7,000 homes). The current position is that this new Academy would be part of a Community Campus alongside one of the three potential primary schools. These schools would become the centre of the Community Campus for Grandhome, with wider community access to facilities (e.g. sports facilities, assembly and
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meeting rooms). However, given the long period over which the full development will take place, Grandhome will not, in itself, generate sufficient students to require the provision of a new Academy.
7.16 The scale of school provision required for Grandhome will be driven by the Pupil Product Ratios (PPR) agreed with Aberdeen City Council. These are as follows:
• Primary - 0.25 child per dwelling
• Secondary - 0.10 student per dwelling
7.17 PSE Consulting advise that the primary ratio is the same as the ratio generally applied to all residential development across Aberdeen. . Using this City-wide formula, the Council and the Trust calculate that 100 homes will mean around 25 primary aged children (0.25 children per dwelling) living at Grandhome in 2015. A further 50 children will arrive each year as development continues. This means that initially there will be very small numbers of primary children living at Grandhome. The secondary school PPR is consistent with the ratio for the Academies close to the proposed development. These ratios are applied to all dwellings including one bedroom properties
7.18 The scale of development at Grandhome is such that it will take several decades for the new community to be completed. The expected start date of 2015, the construction of 100 homes in that year, and around 200 homes in each following year, means that it will be 2050 before Grandhome is built.
7.19 There is substantial unfilled capacity in both primary and secondary schools in neighbourhoods around the Grandhome site at present. This will have a bearing both on the provision required at Grandhome and the extent to which demand from Grandhome residents could be met at neighbouring schools.
7.20 However, as a major new urban extension, schooling is central to the way that Grandhome would function as a settlement, an issue recognised in the masterplan. For this reason it is important to assess potential demand in indicative terms.
• Phase 1 (500 homes, 2015-18). Evidence generated by PSE Consulting suggested that demand for primary school places arising from Phase 1 could be met in existing nearby schools. Danestone Primary School is forecast to have a high level of unfilled places over the years 2015-2020 with a mean average of c. 140 unfilled places in each year. Based on the formula discussed above, 560 homes could be built before filling these 140 unfilled places (560 x 0.25). It has been agreed with Aberdeen City Council that Danestone can accommodate all primary children likely to arrive in Grandhome during Phase 1. As discussed above, the lengthy timescale for development means that there will be a steady but limited flow of new Grandhome children needing school places. This is contrary to the substantial and rapid influx often seen in areas of new housing development.
• Phases 1-5 (Planning Permission in principle, 2015-2038) – Development of a further 4,200 homes (Phases 2-5) at a rate of c. 200 per annum would imply a primary pupil yield of 50 per annum, and a secondary yield of 20 per annum. Each year some primary pupils would enter into secondary schooling, thus freeing up primary school
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capacity in Grandhome schools. The implication is that new primary schools will need to be located in such a way as to serve the needs of the wider Grandhome development. Later potential expansion of primary capacity would need to be managed in such a way as to prevent the development of surplus capacity.
• Phases 1-7 (2015-2050) – While the timing of future development remains to be determined, applying the PPR would give an absolute total of c. 1,750 primary and 700 secondary pupils for a development of 7,000 homes. However, as stated above, these new school users would arrive over a period of 35 years which equates to several school generations. Therefore again, any expansion of schooling at Grandhome would need to be carefully managed so as not to result in either under- provision or surplus capacity.
Sports, Leisure and Open Space Provision
Sports and Leisure Facilities
7.21 The Grandhome Development Framework makes provision for indoor and outdoor sports and recreation facilities both at the centre of the settlement and in its individual neighbourhoods. Such facilities will be the subject of detailed planning as full applications are submitted. In summary, the proposed provision includes the following:
• Sports facilities for school and community uses, centred on the proposed Community Campus. Sports facilities would form part of an 11 Hectare site (Clerkhill Community Campus) scheduled to be developed through phases 2-3 and phase 7.
• Sports pitches linked to primary schools in individual neighbourhoods. The Development Framework indicates that one or two pitches could be developed for each school.
7.22 It is also understood that there have been discussions about pitches enabling Grandhome to play host to football and rugby, with the Scottish Rugby Union having expressed interest in provision at Grandhome to address the lack of such facilities in Aberdeen.
7.23 The Development Framework recognises that Grandhome residents could use established and planned facilities both in and around the Bridge of Don/Danestone/Dyce area and elsewhere in Aberdeen City. Current provision in the immediate area is summarised in the table below:
Table 7.3: Sports Facilities Within 2-3km of Proposed Development Centre Facilities Alex Collie Sport Centre, Sports hall and fitness studio with extensive range of classes Gardens Knowe, Bridge of Don available to local community The Beacon, Bucksburn Sports hall, swimming pool, studios, meeting rooms, youth Community Campus, Bucksburn facilities, outdoor sports pitches including astroturf The Jesmond Centre, Bridge of Sports hall (4 badminton court size), smaller sports hall (1 Don badminton court), fitness studio, general purpose rooms. Facilities offers extensive range of sport and leisure activities for local community plus on site crèche. Woodside Sports Complex, Aberdeenshire Rugby Football Club’s outdoor facilities (rugby and Station Road, Aberdeen football pitches). It should also be noted that this area is identified
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in the Aberdeen Local Development Plan (2012) as the site for a Sports Village (Site OP 135).
7.24 In addition, there are a number of private membership facilities located close to the Grandhome site, including a Bannatyne Health and Fitness Centre located close to the Tesco store off Laurel Drive.
7.25 The provision of outdoor sports facilities has been audited by Aberdeen City Council as part of the 2010 Aberdeen Open Space Audit. In considering the provision of sports facilities at Grandhome, the following points are relevant:
• The low quality score for equipped play areas, parks and sports fields in Bridge of Don, attributed in part to a lack of provision.
• Quality scores for sports outdoor space in Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone were higher, reflecting the wider availability of such facilities in the area.
7.26 A new sports pitch and leisure asset strategy for Aberdeen City is currently being developed and will set out the Council’s aspirations and expectations for the future provision of facilities in the city. Supplementary planning guidance covering children’s nurseries and sports facilities was published by Aberdeen City Council in January 2013.5 While it does not provide specific guidance about the type of facilities which are expected of new developments, it sets out a number of principles relating to the design, access and impact:
• They are not detrimental to the natural or built environment or to residential amenity
• Locations are accessible to the catchment population, giving priority to walking, cycling and public transport
• Public access arrangements can be maintained, enhanced or, where appropriate, provided in a convenient location in the vicinity of the development
• The impact of floodlighting and appearance of any associated structures would not adversely affect the amenity of nearby residential properties or the character of the area
• Facilities meet the objectives of Aberdeen’s Playing Pitch Strategy.
• Existing sport and recreation facilities shall be retained unless they are being replaced by an improved facility.
7.27 Detail of the proposed sports facilities for Grandhome could be assessed against the completed Aberdeen Leisure Assets and Sports Pitches Strategy once published. However, with facilities proposed across the site, Grandhome has the potential to make an important contribution to such facilities in the city.
5 Aberdeen City Council (2013) Children’s Nurseries and Sports Facilities, Supplementary Guidance
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Open Space and Green Infrastructure
7.28 The provision of managed open spaces and green infrastructure is a feature of the Development Framework for Grandhome and is underpinned by a landscape strategy for the site. The design of the settlement includes a network of linked, open spaces across the development including green links to neighbouring areas, neighbourhood parks and the creation or maintenance of natural habitats.
7.29 The main features of proposed open space provision are the following:
• Hilltop Park, earmarked as the main public park and gardens for the settlement including a mix of facilities such as play areas and shelters
• Public gardens for each local neighbourhood, again to include some facilities such as seating or bowling greens
• A north-south green corridor forming the single largest open space area on the proposed settlement taking in Clerkhill Wood, Monument Wood and Persley Wood and forming part of the city’s green space network identified in Policy NE1 of the Local Development Plan. This area would provide a mix of uses including parks and natural landscape access.
• Meadows and copse parkland linking managed open spaces
• Woodland and tree belts, including new planting and aiming to encourage biodiversity on the settlement.
• Retention of existing woodland and watercourses.
• Civic spaces around central civic buildings to provide built open space.
7.30 In total, the Development Framework provides for 85 Hectares of open spaces across the settlement. Aberdeen City Council’s policy relating to the requirements for managed and non-managed open spaces is set out in its Open Space Supplementary Guidance (2012).6 Below shows how the provision of different types of space in the proposed development compares to the requirements identified in this Guidance. The assessment is based on the population for the Permission in Principle development of 4,700 homes and a resident population of c. 11,600 residents. Table 7.4: Aberdeen City Council Open Space Standards and Proposed Development Compared Open Space City Council Standard Proposed Comment Category Provision Play Zones 0.3 Ha per 1,000 residents = 9 zones, 4.8 Ha Significantly exceeds 3.5 Ha standards Larger Play Zones 2,500 sq m 2,500 sq m Meets City Council standard Outdoor sports 1.6 Ha per 1,000 residents = 9.5 Ha Lower than implied areas 18.6 Ha requirement
6 Aberdeen City Council (2012) Open Space Supplementary Guidance
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Natural green 1 Ha natural green space per 32 Ha Significantly exceeds space and green 1,000 residents = 11.6 Ha. 16 Ha within standard corridors All residents within 400m of 2,000m a natural greenspace >2ha All residents within 2,000m of a natural greenspace >5ha Allotments 0.3 Ha per 1,000 properties 4 areas, 2.3 Ha Significantly higher than with less than 60 sq m implied standard private garden space = 1.4 Ha Sources: Grandhome Development Framework; Aberdeen City Council Open Space Supplementary Guidance (2012).
8. Conclusions
8.1 The proposed Grandhome development has the potential to deliver significant socio- economic impacts for Aberdeen, but also the immediate local area of Bridge of Don and Danestone.
8.2 Once complete, Grandhome will be a significant demographic and economic addition to the city of Aberdeen, providing a new community with a range of housing types (both market and affordable), a new town centre with a wide range of retail, professional, and leisure services on offer, as well as a range of community facilities and open spaces. These facilities will play an important role in shaping the new Grandhome community, but they will also play a role in attracting consumers and users of services from neighbouring areas which currently have a more limited offer.
8.3 The following table provides a short summary of the key socio-economic impacts which the Grandhome scheme can potentially deliver over the various development phases. In brief the Grandhome scheme has the potential to house 17,300 residents across 7,000 new dwellings. These residents will, on average, spend £76m per annum in the Aberdeen economy, supporting 930 FTE jobs. The commercial, retail and leisure floorspace at Grandhome will directly support 2,270 FTE jobs on-site by 2050. Temporary construction employment will support, on average, 550 jobs per annum through both residential and commercial/retail/leisure construction activities. However, temporary construction impacts could be higher once wider site infrastructure and services are also considered.
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Table 8.1: Summary Table of Socio-Economic Impacts Key Indicators Phase 1 (2015- Phases 1-5 Phases 1-7 2018) (PPiP 2015- (2015- 2038) 2050)
Number of Dwellings 500 4,700 7,000 Number of Residents 1,250 11,569 17,327 Working age Population (80%) 1,000 9,255 13,862
Annual Household Expenditure of Residents £12m £110m £164m Annual Household Expenditure of Residents in £5.5m £51.0m £76.0m Aberdeen Total Direct and Multiplier (FTE) Jobs Supported by 67 625 933 Expenditure in Aberdeen
Total Employment (FTE jobs) Associated with 47 2,159 2,220 Floorspace Creation Total Employment (FTE jobs) Associated with 16 16 Healthcare provision on-site Total Employment (FTE jobs) Associated with 35 35 education provision on-site (only twin-entry primary assessed here) Total on-site employment (FTE Jobs) 47 2,210 2,271
Average construction employment per annum 410 495 486 (supported by residential development) Average construction employment per annum 11 92 65 (supported by employment floorspace) Total construction Employment (average jobs per 421 587 551 annum) Note: Phase 1 = 3 years (2015-2018), PPiP (Phase 1-5) = 23 years (2015-2038), Full Masterplan (Phases 1-7) = 35 years (2015-2050) Source: Regeneris Consulting
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