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3 Foreign Fighters: Cases, Outcomes, and Conditions GESCHWISTER-SCHOLL-INSTITUT FÜR POLITIKWISSENSCHAFT Münchener Beiträge zur Politikwissenschaft herausgegeben vom Geschwister-Scholl-Institut für Politikwissenschaft 2015 Friedrich Jonathan Hinsch ‚Export of Terror‘ Why foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq come more often from some countries oft he Arab League than from others Masterarbeit bei Dr. Alexander Spencer SoSe 2015 Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Research Question ............................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Methodological Approach .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.2.1 Two Basic Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Definition of a Foreign Fighter ..................................................................................................................... 8 2 Foreign Fighters in World Politics & Science .............................................................................................. 11 2.1 State of the Art ................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2 Purpose of this study ..................................................................................................................................... 20 3 Foreign Fighters: Cases, Outcomes, and Conditions ................................................................................. 21 3.1 The Cases: Arab League States .................................................................................................................. 21 3.2 The Outcome: Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq ............................................................................. 22 3.3 Conditions: Explaining the Export of Foreign Fighters ................................................................... 24 3.3.1 Necessary & Sufficient Conditions .................................................................................................. 24 3.3.2 Socio-economic Conditions ................................................................................................................ 25 3.3.3 Systemic Conditions .............................................................................................................................. 31 3.3.4 Political Conditions................................................................................................................................ 36 3.3.5 Practical Conditions .............................................................................................................................. 38 4 The Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA).............................................................................................. 40 4.1 Operationalization.......................................................................................................................................... 42 4.1.1 Calibration & the creation of Indices ............................................................................................. 42 4.1.2 Operationalization: Socio-economic Conditions ....................................................................... 43 4.1.3 Operationalization: Systemic Conditions ..................................................................................... 46 4.1.4 Operationalization: Political Conditions ....................................................................................... 48 4.1.5 Operationalization: Practical Conditions ..................................................................................... 53 4.2 QCA-Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 64 4.2.1 Analysis of the Necessary Conditions ............................................................................................ 64 4.2.2 Analysis of the Sufficient Conditions .............................................................................................. 69 4.3 Findings: Sufficient Conditions ................................................................................................................. 71 4.4 Interpretation of the Cases in the Light of the Findings ................................................................. 75 5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 82 6 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................................. 85 2 1 Introduction The ongoing civil war in Syria and Iraq attracts thousands of individuals from all over the world (Burken 2015). Most of these foreign fighters are young Sunni Muslim men in their twenties with a jihadist motivation (Barrett 2014a: 16). But also Shiites, Christians, Kurds and adventure seekers of different nature are pulled to the war zone (Spencer 2015; Hilgers/Hensgen 2014). Teenagers can be found as well as elderly (Barrett 2014a: 16); also an increasing number of women and girls travels to the war zone in Syria and Iraq (Freytas- Tamura 2015), either to fight (Yücel 2015) or to marry a fighter (Saltman/Smith 2015). Most of the foreign fighters join radical Islamic insurgent groups affiliated to global jihad (Hegghammer 2014b: 6). Although the numbers of foreign fighters from Europe and former soviet-union states increase, the largest proportion originates from the Arab World (Neumann 2015). While some Arab countries (Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia or Jordan) export1 great numbers of foreign fighters in comparison to their population, others are not reported to export any (Comoros; Djibouti) or only comparatively small numbers (Mauretania; Sudan; United Arab Emirates; Egypt; Algeria). Again other countries rank in the middle (e.g. Somalia; Qatar; Kuwait). By comparing socio-economic-, systemic-, political- and practical conditions in 15 Sunni Arab countries, I try to find an explanaton for the widely differing numbers of foreign fighters from the respective states. The upshot of my exploratory study is – perhaps not surprisingly – that there is no single condition that explains the noticable differences between the countries of my sample as regarding the export of foreign fighters. Most interestingly is that the combination of a modern market system, education and easy accessibility to the conflict zone seems to foster the export of fighters. Moreover, the findings show that poor and underdeveloped countries export the smallest numbers. Other conditions are apparently less important, but may still be relevant in combination with others. Suprisingly Sharia law can in combination with other conditions – contribute to the outcome ‘no export of foreign fighters’. 1 I use of the term “export” to describe the flow of foreign fighters from a country to Syria and Iraq. This is not meant to imply that the country actively and on purpose exports fighters in the usual sense of the term. 3 1.1 Research Question My research question is: What are the conditions in states of the Arab League that lead – by themselve or in combination – to a higher or lower number of Muslim foreign fighters from the respective states in Syria and Iraq? Based on the general assumption that the causes of radicalization are the same for individuals living under more or less the same social and political circumstances, I assume that structural differences between the Arab States affect the probability with which individuals living in these states may be expected to join an armed group in the conflict zone of Syria and Iraq. Moreover, I assume, that an explanation for the grossly diverging numbers of foreign fighters from the respective states can be found by comparing countries that seem to export few or none with other countries that became a mayor recruitment pool for insurgent groups in the conflict zone. In my analysis I shall focus solely on foreign fighters that (a) come from Sunni majority Arab states and (b) go to Syria and Iraq. My goal is to identify the sufficient and necessary conditions for the outcome – i.e. a comparatively high number of foreign fighters going to Syria and Iraq. My goal is not to give a comprehensive analysis of the causes of the phenomenon of foreign fighters or of the causes of radicalization and terrorism in general. I merely analyse the phenomenon of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq coming from states of the Arab League and their proportionally higher or lower numbers when compared with the population size of the respective countries. Strictly speaking, the findings will, therefore, only apply to states of a similar type. If one would, for example, include western states, that export foreign fighters, conditions that represent aspects of integration or the situation of the Muslim minorities would probably be more relevant (Matthijs/Zahid 2013; Vidino/Brandon 2012). And if one thinks of Russia and China, their policies towards regional Muslim minorities (e.g. the Chechens and the Uigurs) would seem to be very relevant (Drennan 2015; TSG IntelBrief
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