Tampa Builds on Its Strengths Winter 2021

MULTIFAMILY REPORT Tampa Builds On Its Strengths Winter 2021

Small-Business Jobs Gain Momentum

Metro Leads Short-Term Rent Growth

2020 Construction Starts Outperform 2019 TAMPA MULTIFAMILY

Recent Tampa Transactions

Trellis at the Lakes Warm Climate Boosts Rental Market

Mirroring nationwide trends of contrasting growth between City: St. Petersburg, Fla. gateway markets and lower-cost metros, Tampa’s rental market Buyer: Varia US Properties Purchase Price: $114 MM not only proved resilient in the face of economic hardship but Price per Unit: $165,698 also showcased strong performance in 2020. The metro led the top 30 markets for short-term rent gains in December, while rents on a trailing three-month basis were up 0.8% to $1,337, Bayside Arbors just below the $1,462 U.S. average.

In the 12 months ending in November, Tampa’s employment sector shed a combined 63,900 jobs, with leisure and hospitality carrying the weight of the loss (down 31,000 jobs). While job improvement is still sluggish, Tampa led growth in small-business employment as of December, according to the Small Business Employment Watch by Paychex. For December, the metro’s overall index stood at 96.84. City: Clearwater, Fla. Buyer: The Connor Group Tampa had 14,157 units under construction as of December, with Purchase Price: $93 MM 85% of those aimed at high-income renters. More than half of the Price per Unit: $213,876 pipeline (62%) is expected to come online in 2021. Some $2.5 billion in assets traded in 2020 through December, for a 36% decline Swan Lake from 2019. While the pandemic curbed sales activity, the moderation came after the decade’s cycle peak of $3.8 billion in 2019.

City: Tampa, Fla. Market Analysis | Winter 2021 Buyer: Covenant Capital Group Purchase Price: $83 MM Price per Unit: $128,906 Contacts Jeff Adler Ron Brock, Jr. Radius Palms Vice President & General Industry Principal, Matrix Manager of Yardi Matrix [email protected] [email protected] (480) 663-1149 x2404 (303) 615-3676 Author Jack Kern Timea-Erika Papp Director of Research Senior Associate Editor and Publications [email protected] City: Tampa, Fla. (800) 866-1124 x2444 Buyer: Bridge Investment Group Purchase Price: $83 MM Price per Unit: $152,778

On the cover: Photo by felixmizioznikov/iStockphoto.com 8,000 $180,000

$160,000

6,000 $140,000

8,000 $120,000$180,000

$160,000 4,000 $100,000

6,000 $140,000$80,000

$120,000 2,000 $60,000

4,000 $100,000$40,000 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 $80,000 01 016 02 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 $60,000 2,000 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 2 2 2 2019 2020 Tampa National $40,000 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 01 016 02 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 2 2 2 2019 2020 Tampa National 4.0%

2.0%

0.0%4.0%

-2.0%2.0%

-4.0%0.0%

-6.0%-2.0%

-8.0%-4.0%

-10.0%-6.0% 9 0 0 -19 19 -20 -20 -8.0% v- o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov -10.0% 9 0 0 -19 Tampa19 National -20 -20 v- o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov

Tampa National 3.5%

3.0%

2.5%3.5%

2.0%3.0%

1.5%2.5%

1.0%2.0%

0.5%1.5%

0.0%1.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 0.5%

0.0% Tampa National 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Tampa National

8,500 Units 14,157 Units

8,500 Units RENT TRENDS 14,157 Units

31,899 Units

➤ Tampa rents were up 0.8% on a trailing three- ment were up 0.9% to $1,541, while rates in month (T3) basis as of December, while31,899 the Units U.S. the working-class Renter-by-Necessity segment rate slid 0.1%. The metro’s average stood at rose 0.6% to $1,140. Planned Prospective Under Construction $1,337, below the $1,462 U.S. figure. Rent gains have been consistent in Tampa over the past ➤ Tampa Heights (23.9% to $1,435), Gandy/Bal- three years, except for a slightPlanned shiftProspective last May Under Constructionlast Point (12.9% to $1,528) and Downtown St. (-0.2%)$4,000 and June (-0.1%). Petersburg (12.6% to $1,516) led gains120 in the 12 months ending in December. Rates100 in Down- ➤ On a$3,000$4,000 month-over-month basis, Tampa led the town Tampa/Ybor City—one of the 120priciest sub- top 30 markets for short-term rent growth in markets—increased 3.7% to $1,956.80 100 December$2,000$3,000 (up 0.9%). Other warm-weather met- 60 ros including Phoenix, the Inland Empire and Or- ➤ The new $900 billion federal relief package80 allots ange County followed, all with 0.5% rent gains. $25 billion for rental assistance to be40 distributed $1,000$2,000 60 Rents in Tampa improved 3.9% year-over-year. among households earning below 80%20 of the respective area median income. According40 to the ➤ $1,000$0 0 Rent evolution across2011 the 2012 quality 2013 spectrum 2014 was 2015 2016National 2017 Low-Income 2018 2019 Housing 2020 Coalition, Florida 20 mostly even—rates in the upscale Lifestyle seg- is estimated to receive some $1.4 billion. $0 Number of Properties Volume in Millions 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Tampa vs. National Rent Growth (Trailing 3 Months) Number of Properties Volume in Millions 0.8%

0.6%

0.4%0.8%

0.2%0.6%

0.0%0.4%

-0.2%0.2%

-0.4%0.0% 9 9 9 9 0 0 -0.2% 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 p- c c un e e e Mar- J S D Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D -0.4% 9 9 9 Tampa 9 National 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 Source: Yardi Matrix p- c c un e e e Mar- J S D Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D

Tampa National 1.0% Tampa 0.8%Rent Growth by Asset Class (Trailing 3 Months) 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% -0.2% 0.2% -0.4% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% 9 9 9 9 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r -0.4% a un a ep-20 M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec -0.6% 9 9 Renter-by-Necessity9 9 Lifestyle0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r a un a ep-20 M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec

Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle Source: Yardi Matrix

Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 3 ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

➤ As of November, the unemployment rate was Employment Watch by Paychex, which measures 6.4% in Florida and 5.7% in the metro, both be- employment, on a monthly basis, for businesses low the 6.7% national level. Unemployment in with less than 50 employees. For December, the the metro peaked at 13.2% in April. Compared metro’s overall index stood at 96.84. to other Florida markets, Tampa’s November unemployment rate was below the levels in Miami ➤ The $900 billion stimulus package provides (7.0%) and Orlando (7.7%). an additional $300 in federal assistance and extends the Pandemic Unemployment Assis- ➤ In the 12 months ending in November, Tampa lost tance and Pandemic Emergency Unemploy- a combined 63,900 jobs, with leisure and hospi- ment Compensation programs at least until tality bearing the brunt of the economic fallout— late March. The bill includes a new program the sector contracted 16.5%, down 31,000 posi- that provides an additional $100 for eligible tions. While improvement in unemployment was workers, such as gig workers. The Mixed Earner sluggish, Tampa led growth in small-business jobs Unemployment Compensation program was as of December, according to the Small Business optional, but Florida opted in.

Tampa Employment Share by Sector

Current Employment Code Employment Sector (000) % Share 80 Other Services 55 3.5% 30 Manufacturing 88 5.6% 55 Financial Activities 136 8.6% 90 Government 189 11.9% 50 Information 26 1.6% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 94 5.9% 65 Education and Health Services 251 15.8% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 313 19.7% 60 Professional and Business Services 276 17.4% 70 Leisure and Hospitality 157 9.9% Sources: Yardi Matrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Population Tampa vs. National Population

➤ Tampa gained 406,464 residents over 2016 2017 2018 2019 the past decade, for a 14.6% uptick, well above the 6.1% U.S. rate. National 323,071,342 325,147,121 327,167,434 328,239,523

➤ Population growth is expected to ex- Tampa ceed 25% over the next 20 years, with 3,034,215 3,091,225 3,142,663 3,194,831 Metro Tampa’s population anticipated to surpass 3.8 million by 2040, according Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics to a study by Roofstock.

Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 4 SUPPLY

➤ Tampa had 14,157 units under construction as ➤ As of December, Downtown Tampa/Ybor City of December, with 85% of those aimed at high- (1,624 units) led development activity. Hyde income earners. More than half of the pipeline Park/Davis Island (1,319 units) and Gandy/Bal- (62%) is scheduled for completion in 2021, with last Point (1,031 units) rounded out the top 3, the remaining projects expected to come online accounting for almost a third of the total pipe- over the next two years. Multifamily has proven line. Cortland’s 587-unit Cortland Westshore in resilient in the face of economic disruption, Gandy/Ballast Point, slated for delivery in the prompting8,000 developers to plan ahead—another$180,000 spring, was the largest development underway. 40,400 units were in the planning and$160,000 permit- ting6,000 stages as of December. $140,000 $120,000

4,000 $100,000 ➤ Developers added 4,518 units to the rental$80,000 in- Tampa Completions (as of December 2020)

ventory2,000 between January and December,$60,000 com- prising 2.0% of total stock and almost$40,000 on par 8,000 $180,000 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 01 016 02 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 with0 the national rate. New deliveries predomi2011 2012- 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 $160,000 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 0 0 0 0 nantly20 favored20 2 2the2 Lifestyle2 2019 segment2020 (95%). Tampa National $140,000 Since 2014, developers have added an average 6,000 5,100 apartments to the inventory each year, $120,000 with 4.0%completions peaking at 6,464 in 2018. De- 4,000 $100,000 liveries2.0% tempered following that high point, with $80,000 2019’s0.0% completions amounting to 5,865 units. 2,000 $60,000 -2.0% ➤ Despite certain setbacks, construction activity $40,000 -4.0% 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 in Tampa hasn’t lost momentum. Developers 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 01 016 02 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 broke-6.0% ground on 7,162 units across 33 properties 0 2011 2012 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 in 2020,-8.0% marking a 12% increase in construction 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 2 2 2 2019 2020 Tampa National starts-10.0% compared to 2019. That year, developers 9 0 0 broke ground on 6,396 units in 22- 19communities.19 Source: Yardi Matrix-20 -20 v- o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov

Tampa National 4.0% Tampa vs. National Completions as a Percentage of Total Stock (as of December 2020) 2.0% 3.5% 0.0% 3.0%

2.5% -2.0% 2.0% -4.0% 1.5% -6.0% 1.0%

0.5% -8.0% 0.0% -10.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 9 0 0 -19 19 -20 -20 Tampa National v- Source: Yardi Matrix o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov

Tampa National

8,500 Units 14,157 Units 3.5% Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 5 3.0%

31,899 Units 2.5%

2.0%

Planned Prospective Under Construction 1.5%

$4,000 1.0% 120

0.5% 100 $3,000 80 0.0% $2,000 201360 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

40 $1,000 Tampa National 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of Properties Volume in Millions

0.8%

0.6% 8,500 Units 0.4% 14,157 Units

0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.4% 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 31,899 Units p- c c un e e e Mar- J S D Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D

Tampa National

1.0% Planned Prospective Under Construction 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% $4,000 120 -0.2% -0.4% 100 -0.6% 9 9 9 9 $3,0000 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r a un a ep-20 M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec 80

Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle $2,000 60

40 $1,000 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of Properties Volume in Millions

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.4% 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 p- c c un e e e Mar- J S D Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D

Tampa National

1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% 9 9 9 9 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r a un a ep-20 M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec

Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle 8,000 $180,000

$160,000

6,000 $140,000

$120,000

4,000 $100,000

$80,000

2,000 $60,000

$40,000 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 01 016 02 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 2 2 2 2019 2020 Tampa National

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0% 9 0 0 -19 19 -20 -20 v- o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov

Tampa National

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Tampa National TRANSACTIONS

➤ Some $2.5 billion in assets traded in 2020 on RBN assets, although Lifestyle properties have through December, for a 36% decline from 2019. also maintained their appeal. Of the 68 proper- While the pandemic curbed sales activity, the ties sold between January and December, 41 8,500 Units moderation came after the decade’s14,157 Units cycle peak were RBN and 27 were Lifestyle communities. of $3.8 billion in 2019. Such high points are typically followed by a softening in sales volume, ➤ The bulk of investment sales closed in the which has consistently exceeded the $2 billion fourth quarter (45%), with transaction activity mark in the metro since 2015. picking up speed after two slow quarters. Varia 31,899 Units US Properties’ $114 million acquisition of the ➤ A total of 17,847 units were sold in 2020 through 600-unit Trellis at the Lakes in St. Petersburg December, with investor interest primarily fixed was the largest deal of 2020’s final quarter.

Planned Prospective Under Construction

Tampa Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of December 2020)

$4,000 120

100 $3,000 80

$2,000 60

40 $1,000 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Yardi Matrix Number of Properties Volume in Millions

1 Top Submarkets0.8% for Transaction Volume Tampa vs. National Sales Price per Unit

8,0000.6% Volume $180,000 Submarket ($MM) 0.4% $160,000 Mainlands 240 6,0000.2% $140,000 Safety Harbor 208 0.0% $120,000 Land O’Lakes/Odessa 182 $100,000 4,000-0.2% Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 178 $80,000 -0.4% University of South Florida 153 2,000 9 9 9 9 $60,000 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 p- c c un e e e Lakeland HighlandsMar- J 114S D $40,000 Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D 8 9 0 2 4 8 0 14 15 16 17 1 1 2 1 1 01 016 02 Feather Sound/High Point 105 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 20 2 0 Tampa National 2011 2012 2013 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 3 4 1 1 15 16 17 18 Source: Yardi Matrix 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 2 2 2 2019 2020 Tampa National 1 From January 2020 to December 2020 Source: Yardi Matrix 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 6 -0.2% -0.4% -2.0% -0.6% -4.0% 9 9 9 9 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r a un a ep-20 -6.0% M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec

-8.0% Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle

-10.0% 9 0 0 -19 19 -20 -20 v- o May-1 Aug N Feb-2 May Aug-2 Nov

Tampa National

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Tampa National

8,500 Units 14,157 Units

31,899 Units

Planned Prospective Under Construction

$4,000 120

100 $3,000 80

$2,000 60

40 $1,000 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of Properties Volume in Millions

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.4% 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 -20 p- c c un e e e Mar- J S D Mar- Jun- Sep-20 D

Tampa National

1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% 9 9 9 9 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 2 -20 r p- r a un a ep-20 M J Se Dec M Jun- S Dec

Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle LISTICLE

data by

Top 10 Markets for Transaction Activity in 2020

By Razvan Cimpean

Last year proved challenging for the multifamily sector, with year-over-year rent growth declining in many markets. The COVID-19 health crisis has seen renters in more dense and expensive gateway markets relocating to suburban areas and smaller U.S. cities, in search of affordable alternatives. The majority of investment activity has remained focused on established urban multifamily markets, but that, too, has been affected. The number and the amount of deals changed in 2020, with most assets trading for less than $100 million.

Rank Market Transaction Volume (MM) Price Per Unit 1 Phoenix $5,879.7 $187,251 2 Dallas $5,501.8 $128,712 3 Washington, D.C. $5,468.2 $235,076 4 Atlanta $5,253.5 $142,429 5 Denver $4,435.8 $247,160 6 Charlotte $2,959.3 $158,235 7 Tampa $2,518.9 $155,874 8 Austin $2,387.3 $160,872 9 Miami $2,333.2 $224,266 10 Houston $2,328.2 $113,460

TAMPA

While at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic it was unclear how Tampa’s economic development would be impacted, the picture is a lot clearer now. Despite the initial shockwave that saw the jobless rate go up to a record 13.2 percent in April, by November it had declined to 5.7 percent, 70 basis points below the national average. In the 12 months ending in November, the metro lost almost 70,000 positions, with the leisure and hospitality sector down 16.5 percent year-over-year, or 31,000 jobs.

Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 7 TAMPA SUBMARKETS

Area Area Area No. Submarket No. Submarket No. Submarket 1 Downtown Tampa/Ybor City 24 Lake Magdalene 45 Pinellas Park 2 Hyde Park/Davis Island 25 Forest Hills 46 Mainlands 3 Gandy/Ballast Point 26 Sulphur Springs 47 Feather Sound/High Point 4 Sunset Park/Bayside 27 Del Rio/College Hill 48 Largo 5 Oakford Park 28 Harney 49 Belleair 6 Wellswood 29 Temple Terrace 50 Clearwater Beach 7 Tampa Heights 30 University of South Florida 51 Clearwater 8 Ruskin 31 University Square 52 Coachman 11 Clair–Mel City 32 Livingston 53 Safety Harbor 12 Orient Park 33 Tampa Palms/Pebble Creek 54 Dunedin 13 Highland Pines 34 Thonotosassa 55 Palm Harbor/Tarpon Springs 14 Lakeland Highlands 35 Brandon/Seffner 56 Oldsmar 15 Rivercrest 36 Riverview/Valrico 57 Lake Wales 16 Egypt Lake 37 Plant City 58 Davenport/Haines City 17 Winter Haven 38 Bartow 59 Land O'Lakes/Odessa 18 Garver City 39 Sun City Center 60 Zephyr Hills 19 Rocky Creek 40 Downtown St. Petersburg 61 Dade City 20 Town ‘n’ Country 41 Upper St. Petersburg 62 New Port Richey 21 Mullis City 42 Gulfport/Lealman 63 Port Richey 22 Carrollwood Village 43 St. Pete Beach/Pasadena 65 Spring Hill 23 Westchase 44 Seminole/Indian Shores 66 Brooksville

Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 8 ECONOMICDEFINITIONS SNAPSHOT

Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting over the obligations of ownership.

Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be:

➤ A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to acquire a home or condominium;

➤ Students, who also December span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely get- ting by;

➤ Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, techni- cal workers, teachers, etc.;

➤ Blue-collar households, which December barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a dispro- portionate share of their income toward rent;

➤ Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, Decem- ber extend to middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City;

➤ Military households, subject to frequency of relocation.

These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly, but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. The Yardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that requirement, designating property market positions as:

Market Position Improvements Ratings Discretionary A+ / A High Mid-Range A- / B+ Low Mid-Range B / B- Workforce C+ / C / C- / D

The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate end results.

The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference to a consistently applied standard.

To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at 480-663-1149 x2404.

Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 9 Yardi®Matrix

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Tampa Multifamily | Winter 2021 11