DocumentA of the International Fund for Agricultural Development

United Republic of Agricultural and Environmental Management Project Interim Evaluation Report

December 2003 Report No. 1419-TZ

Photo on cover page: United Republic of Tanzania An improved banana plot, Karagwe Source: IFAD Mission 2002

United Republic of Tanzania Kagera Agricultural and Environmental Management Project Interim Evaluation

Table of Contents

Acronyms and Abbreviations iii Map v Agreement at Completion Point vii Executive Summary xiii

I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Background of the Evaluation 1 B. Methodology and Approach 1 C. Work Programme 2 D. Development and Project Perspective 3

II. MAIN DESIGN FEATURES AND IMPLEMENTATION RESULTS 5 A. Project Rationale and Strategy 5 B. Project Area and Target Group 5 C. Goal, Objectives and Components 6 D. Implementation Partners and Arrangements 7 E. Major Changes in Policy and Institution During Implementation 7 F. Design Changes During Implementation 7 G. Main Implementation Results 9

III. RURAL POVERTY IMPACT 18 A. Introduction 18 B. Impact on Physical and Financial Assets 19 C. Impact on Human Assets 21 D. Impact on Social Capital and Empowerment 23 E. Impact on Food Security 24 F. Environmental Impact 25 G. Impact on Institutions, Policie s and Regulatory Framework 26 H. Sustainability 26 I. Innovation and Replicability 27 J. Overall Impact Assessment 28

IV. PERFORMANCE OF THE PROJECT 29 A. Relevance of Objectives 29 B. Effectiveness 30 C. Efficiency 31

V. PERFORMANCE OF PARTNERS 34 A. Performance of IFAD 34 B. Performance of UNOPS 35 C. Performance of Government, Agencies and Project Management 35 D. Performance of NGOs/CBOs 36 E. Performance of Cofinanciers 36

VI. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND CONCLUSIONS 38

VII. INSIGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40 A. Lessons from Project Experience 40 B. Recommendations 41

Appendices

1. Approach Paper 47 2. Implementation Results 53 Farm, Household and Enterprise Models Revised Cost/Benefit and Internal Rate of Return Analysis 3. Impact Evaluation Matrix 55 4. Financial Management Analysis 61 5. Summary Physical Achievements 75 6. Revised Logical Framework 79 7. List of Principal Contacts and Documents 85

*Annexes

1. Agricultural Development 2. Environmental Management 3. Health 4. Water Supply 5. Village Access Roads 6. Community Involvement, Household and Poverty Impact 7. Gender Aspects and Issues 8. Monitoring and Evaluation

*All Annexes are available from IFAD’s Office of Evaluation ([email protected])

ii

Exchange Ratte

Locall Currrrency = Tanzania Shillings (TZS) USD 1,,00 = TZS 990 TZS 1,,00 = 0..10 USD

Fiscal Years

Government : 1 July - 30 June Districts : 1 January - 31 December

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ARDI Agricultural Research and Development Institute ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Programme ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy AWPB Annual Work Plan and Budget BTC Belgian Technical Co-operation BSF/JP Belgian Survival Fund Joint Programme CBO Community based Organization CI Co-operating Institution (for IFAD) CLP Core Learning Partnership (for/from this evaluation) cmd Cassava Mosaic Disease DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DALDO District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officer DAS District Administrative Secretary DC District Commissioner DCDO District Community Development Officer DED District Executive Director DIVEO Divisional Extension Officer DHMT District Health Management Team DMEO District Monitoring and Evaluation Officer DMO District Medical Officer DPC District Planning Committee DPFU District Project Facilitation Unit DPO District Pla nning Officer DRDP District Rural Development Programme (of Netherlands Government) FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FC Farmer Cadre (informal extensionist) FFS Farmer Field School GDP Gross Domestic Product GTZ German Te chnical Assistance Agency HESAWA Health and Sanitation through Water (SIDA assisted programme) HIS Health Information System HIV/AIDS Human Immuno-deficiency Virus/Acquired Immuno-deficiency Syndrome IPM Integrated Pest Management IPN Integrated Plant Nutrition KAEMP Kagera Agricultural and Environmental Management Project KALIDEP Kagera Livestock Development Project KADETFU Kagera Development Trust Fund (successor to KALIDEP) km kilometre

iii

LBT Labour-based Technology (for road construction) LGRP Local Government Reform Programme LVEMP Environmental Management Project (of World Bank et al) MAFS Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security MCDWC Ministry of Community Development, Women’s Affairs and Children MCM Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing MOF Ministry of Finance MOH Ministry of Health MOTI Ministry of Trade and Industry MWCT Ministry of Works, Communication and Transport MWLD Ministry of Water and Livestock Development NGO Non-government Organisation NMB National Mic ro-finance Bank OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries PF Project Facilitator PFMU Project Facilitation and Monitoring Unit PIM Project Implementation Manual PMO Prime Ministers Office PORALG Presidents Office – Regional Administration and Local Government PRA Participatory Rural (or Rapid) Appraisal PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSC Project Steering Committee QDS Quality Declared Seeds RAS Regional Administrative Secretary RC Regional Commissioner RDS Rural Development Strategy R/DHMT Regional/District Health Management Team RMO Regional Medical Officer SGA Seed Growers Association SIDA Swedish International Development Agency TBA Traditional Birth Attendant TOSCA Tanzanian Official Seeds Certification Agency TOT Trainer of Trainers TPB Tanzania Postal Bank UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services VEO Village Extension Officer VHC Village Health Committee VHW Village Health Worker VPO Vice Presidents Office VRC Village Roads Committee VWUG Village Water Users Group WDC Ward Development Committee WSHPMA Water, Sanitation and Health Project in Marginal Areas (of IFAD/BSF)

iv

v

vi

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT

INTERIM EVALUATION

AGREEMENT AT COMPLETION POINT

1. This Agreement at Completion Point (ACP) records the understanding among the key partners of the evaluation1 for the Kagera Agricultural and Environmental Management Project (KAEMP) on the main insights and recommendations from the Interim Evaluation of the Project. The ACP is intended to contribute: to enhancing the implementation performance of KAEMP; to the future poverty alleviation and rural development planning of government and partners; and to the formulation by IFAD’s Eastern and Southern Africa Division of a new Country Strategy and Opportunities Paper (COSOP) for Tanzania that will set out the medium term strategic framework and investment priorities for Fund assistance.

2. The Interim Evaluation field work took place in November/December 2002 and employed the new IFAD Impact Evaluation Methodology. The preliminary findings, issues arising and tentative recommendations were examined and revised at a Regional Wrap-up Meeting and Stakeholder Workshop with some sixty district, farmer and community representatives and Project staff in on 2 December; and, suitably amended, at a National Wrap-up Meeting with various senior ministry and partner agency officials in on 6 December 2002.

3. Following submission of the Draft Report in mid February 2003 and the receipt of comments from KAEMP project management, the Belgian Survival Fund, UNOPS, government, and other partners, the conclusions and recommendations of the evaluation were presented and discussed at a stakeholders’ workshop in Tanzania on 6 March 2003.

4. In discussion of the findings set out in the Draft Report, there was a wide measure of agreement among participants with the evaluation’s assessment of the project’s progress and impact. A few instances were noted where it was considered that the language of the report had conveyed a misleading impression of achievements, which has been accordingly amended as deemed appropriate by the evaluation team.

5. This ACP now summarises the key points of the consensus reached on the insights and recommendations of the evaluation, taking into account the observations made during the final stakeholders’ workshop on 6 March 2003. The ACP is arranged according to the two principal themes that emerged from discussions and the subsidiary recommendations related to the components and activities relevant to those themes.

1 The partners include IFAD (represented by the East and Southern Africa Division, Office of Evaluation and Belgian Survival Fund); UNOPS; the Government of Tanzania (represented by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the Ministry of Finance and the Prime Minister’s Office), the KAEMP Project Facilitator; the Regional Administrative Secretary (RAS) of Kagera, and the District Executive Directors (DEDs) in the five project districts.

vii

Issues and Recommendations

Theme 1: Consolidation, Further Support and Sustainability

6. Perspective. Implementation of KAEMP coincided with decentralization of administration, service provision and development responsibilities to regions, districts and villages. The practical realisation of these devolution aims will depend on the availability and capability of local groups, both formal and informal, with common interests and a serious purpose for existence and continuity. The Project has established and/or supported 24 seed growers associations (SGAs); over 190 farmer IPM/IPN and 400 tree growing and planting groups; and numerous health management, water user and roads committees that can fulfil this role. However, although many are performing well, these groups are in the early stage of development; the sustainability of Project activities and benefits and the propensity of these groups to contribute to wider district development demands consolidation of their structures and improvement of their administrative and operational capacities. If this is done, KAEMP will have set up a practical resource for successful and sustainable decentralized rural development.

7. Recommendations. The principal recommendations are that:

· the viability and capability of IPM/IPN, environmental, farmers and womens groups; SGAs; village, ward and district health, water and roads committees; and relevant district service departments, be further enhanced by a practical programme of knowledge endowment, capacity building and management support provided through the Project; and

· this consolidation phase consist of one further year of limited and targeted assistance, focussed, inter-alia, on the administration, accounting and financial management of organizations.

8. The supporting recommendations on specific content of group learning by sector are that it include:

· in agriculture: investment planning and use of credit; farm record keeping and business management; practical marketing; and promotion of the services of groups, group members and Farmer Cadres as consultants or resource persons;

· in environment: broader conservation and community based natural resource management principles; and nursery and forestry enterprise management;

· in health: for selected Village Health Committees, training and coaching for the pilot application of cost sharing/cost recovery systems and mechanisms; additional training in disease prevention, child nutrition and community mobilisation for Village Health Workers and Traditional Birth Attendants;

· in water supply and roads: intensive technical orientation for user groups and committees on operation and maintenance tasks; and drafting of by-laws for financing and upkeep of facilities; and

· in Project facilitation: for district staff and village government and ward officials, coaching and support in participatory planning, including use of the logical framework; in M&E; in gender mainstreaming approaches and mechanisms; and in working with the CBO/NGO and private sectors.

viii

Theme 2: Improved Project Design and Policy Implications

9. Perspective. KAEMP has introduced and proven innovative approaches, technologies and systems in demand-driven, farmer and environment-friendly and risk-sensitive ways that afford lessons for better Project design and pointers for policy formulation. Examples include: in farming, use of low cost, organic techniques - such as composting, botanical pesticides and farmer grown improved seeds and crop planting materials; in extension, by reliance on information dissemination through common interest groups and village-based Farmer Cadres; and encouragement of farm record keeping; in environment, using schools as community focus points and promoting commercial practices in tree growing and planting; and in implementation, incorporating Project activities in district development plans using participation and logical framework planning.

10. Conversely, the participatory approach that was adopted by KAEMP took up an inordinate amount of time, effort and expenditure, particularly in the early years of the Project. Despite its successes, the need for a further input in group consolidation indicates that the process of sensitization, mobilisation and social organization is not yet fully complete; and there are a number of shortcomings in design, as expounded in the following recommendations, that can be rectified up to completion of KAEMP - and avoided in future projects.

11. Recommendations. The overarching recommendation in this context is that:

· the simple and cost-effective techniques, measures and systems of operation of interventions that have been developed or refined by KAEMP be properly documented, given wider publicity and exposure to development planning and policy drafting agencies; and be applied as appropriate, regionally and nationally, in other projects, programmes and development strategies.

12. The specific recommendations related to the various Project components are that:

· in agricultural development: local availability of improved seeds and planting materials be arranged by the Project and/or district departments through SGAs, commercia l growers, NGOs or research institutions; application of the Farmer Cadre/group extension approach be widened and formalised; and direct, practical farmer/group/trader action for improved marketing be facilitated;

· in environmental management: supply of seeds at reasonable prices for popular tree species be assured as above; and community-based natural resource management schemes, including agro-forestry, soil conservation and land management with district, village and NGO and private sector co-operation, be promoted;

· in health: the mosquito net revolving fund be decentralized to all districts; and a full inventory and classification of Project supplied equipment be carried out - and repair, modification and re-distribution arranged, including, as appropriate, to Bukoba and hospitals;

· in water supply: as the highest priority for water quality and safety for existing Project schemes, comprehensive protection/disinfection measures be implemented without delay; new schemes be constructed only when full technical, organizational and financial feasibility has been approved by a competent professional adviser; the replacement of pumps for the deepest bore wells be planned for; spare parts availability for other pumps be facilitated; and a detailed comparative costing be made of Project-assisted schemes to determine accurate unit costs and compare the efficiency of different modes of implementation;

ix

· for roads: combined labour-based/mechanised methods for construction be employed, as for the UNCDF project; subdivision of sub-projects into minor and small contracts be avoided except where there is evidence of adequate existing or strong prospective local capability for execution; and, where practical, credit facilities and arrangements for contractors be put in place as part of the contract to strengthen local private sector capacity building; and

· in Project facilitation and management:

- the whole M&E approach, systems, data formats and procedures be simplified and streamlined in line with practicability of execution within local capabilities and resources, with greatly increased beneficiary participation, gender sensitivity, qualitative assessment of impact, and precise attribution of responsibilities and resources at district and Project activity levels;

- gender mainstreaming in district departments and at ward and village level be achieved by formalising gender focal points within District Administrations, specific strengthening of womens groups and women-only training, further gender awareness learning and use of gender sensitive indicators and analysis of gender disaggregated data in regional, district and community plans; and

- for project supervision for ambitious and complex interventions such as KAEMP, adequate allocation of funds be made and proper specification of the technical inputs required be defined, to validate the designs and elucidate the problems of implementation of specialist components such as health and water supply.

13. A set of wider, cross-cutting recommendations also emerges from evaluation, namely:

· the coverage and complexity of design of projects should be tailored to a realistic assessment of the capacity for implementation and of the scope for linkage and potential synergies between components so that impact is optimised and co-ordination, supervision, monitoring and management simplified and rendered more effective and efficient; multiple objective, geographically extensive and administratively complicated projects like KAEMP entail great difficulties in these respects; a rational analysis of these factors and a better balance between thematic/sectoral focus and area coverage should be key aims of future project design;

· for community development: a discrete component focusing on community mobilisation, organization and support should be incorporated in future projects to assure best practice in: the use of existing local organizations and capabilities; careful and more measured selection and establishment of groups and committees; gender equity and empowerment of groups; facilitation of preparation of realistic village/community plans; provision of a genuine and wider, community-backed basis for natural resource utilisation and management; thus enabling some of the constraints on participation that have emerged in KAEMP to be overcome;

· in connection with community development and project launching, the zero year concept should be adopted, whereby a period would be allowed before the formal commencement of the project that would give sufficient start-up time for: sensitization, mobilisation and organization so as to strengthen the capabilities of district departments, committees and groups; training in PRA, the logical framework approach and demand-driven concepts; mitigation of the dependency syndrome among prospective beneficiaries; preliminary baseline and diagnostic studies that would enable clear identification and proper selection

x

and reaching of target groups; and advancement of the onerous early tasks of staff recruitment, office and systems establishment and procurement; and

· a corollary of the early years planning is the need for an exit strategy that would enhance sustainability to be built in to project design and to be specified in financing and implementation schedules; the need for the further input in consolidation of the gains of KAEMP points up the necessity for earlier and more specific, purposeful measures to prepare district and downstream agencies, groups and organizations for take-over of project activities - and to give them at least one year of experience in handling the associated responsibilities and tasks before project completion.

14. Responsibility and Process. For documentation and transmission of the insights and lessons from KAEMP to a wider audience, IFAD-BSF/JP, UNOPS, and the RAS/DASs, through PO-RALG; for modification of current Project operations, the PFMU and relevant District Department Officers; for the design and implementation of future projects and policies, RAS/DASs, Central Government Departments, IFAD, donor partners and the Cooperating Institution.

xi

xii

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT

INTERIM EVALUATION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background, Approach and Work Programme

1. The evaluation1 was mounted by OE at the request of the Belgian Survival Fund with a two- fold objective: to assess and document Project impact and sustainability; and to develop insights and recommendations that will serve to improve Project activities during the remaining implementation period, the design of future projects and programmes in Tanzania . It is one of a series of evaluations based on the new IFAD Impact Evaluation Methodology. This framework: primarily stresses rural poverty impact, as a main measure of project success; includes assessment of performance of the Project, encompassing key criteria of relevance of objectives, effectiveness of achievement of objectives, and efficiency in implementation; and assesses performance of partners, that is, of IFAD, its cooperating institution, government, co-financiers, project management and other participants. Preparatory work by OE in a desk review of documents culminated in an Approach Paper that identified the main issues and elements of the evaluation. Subsequent briefings stressed that evaluation was to be independent and objective, emphasising actual operations and real outcomes on farms and in households and communities - and not just on a stereotyped analysis of records, reports and performance figures.

2. The evaluation took place in November/December 2002 and involved wide ranging and detailed discussions with key informants across the spectrum of participating parties; interviews with more than 200 farm families; over 30 in-depth group discussions; and completion of the new impact evaluation matrix forms in all five districts and, in brief format, in a village. Preliminary Mission findings, issues and recommendations were discussed at a Regional Wrap-up Meeting and Stakeholder Workshop in Bukoba; and, as amended, at a National Wrap-up Meeting. The findings presented here reflect the interactions with: 60 district, farmer, and Project delegates; and various senior ministry and partner agency officers in Tanzania .

Development and Project Perspective

3. The political system and economy of Tanzania have been transformed since the late 1980s and the country is acknowledged among the leaders in sub-Saharan Africa in economic reform and social equity. Since 1996, growth in real GDP has averaged over 4%, but GDP per head remains at around USD 250 and basic needs poverty still affects some 36% of the population. The predominantly subsistence-based agriculture sector has grown at 3% per year, employs 80% of the workforce and accounts for around 50% of both GDP and all exports. The planning of KAEMP coincided with decentralisation under the Local Government Reform Programme. In 2001/2002, the development policy framework was further enhanced by adoption of a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP); the Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS); the Rural Development Strategy (RDS); and the new Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP).

1 The Interim Evaluation Mission comprised: Dr Fatima Mohamedali, Public Health Specialist; Michel Van der Stricht, Rural Infrastructure Consultant; Ms Joyce Nyoni, Sociologist; Clifford Tandari, Economist and Local Resource Person; Ms Sarah Mader, IFAD Associate Evaluation Officer and Jim Semple, Team Leader and Agriculture/Environment Specialist. Mr Ashwani Muthoo was the lead OE Evaluator.

xiii

4. All of these emphasise devolution, good governance, district self-reliance, private sector/NGO participation and gender equity in poverty alleviation. The clear PRSP priorities for development investment are: education; health; water; agriculture; roads; and the legal system. It is implicit that agriculture, as the main productive and income generating rural activity, must play the pivotal role in poverty reduction. Districts formulate their development plans on the basis of these reforms and priorities. Tanzania as a country and Kagera as a region are unusual in Third World development in enjoying a plentiful supply of land of reasonable quality, generally favourable climate and a varied, but benign natural resource base. This includes strong customary rights of use and effective security of tenure for farmers, although land is nominally state owned.

Main Design Features and Changes

5. Project Rationale and Strategy. The major determinant of the rationale was the need to combat the adverse effects of the refugee influx of about 600 000 people, representing a nearly 40% increase of the local population. Their presence was exacerbating: the already declining soil fertility and agricultural productivity; depletion of vegetative cover; scarcity of safe, clean drinking water; the pressure on local health services; and the deteriorating condition of rural and village access roads. The severity of refugee impact was such that a strategy of direct action was needed to assure food security, household incomes, reversal of degradation and district ability to provide services.

6. This implied: in agriculture, supply of improved seeds, planting materials and inputs; and introduction of simple new husbandry techniques, such as integrated pest management (IPM) and integrated plant nutrition (IPN); in environment, strengthening of forestry staff, seedling production and tree planting; and in infrastructure and services interventions, tackling the constraints to productivity, marketing and well-being of: lack of equipment, supplies and training for health facilities; the time and effort involved in safe water collection; and the poor condition of rural roads. Implementation was lodged in the devolved local government system, as a means of district capacity building and orienting staff to participatory processes.

7. Project Area and Target Group. Kagera is the remote north western region bordering , and . Road access is difficult and services scarce in the rural areas. The Project area was defined as all five districts for the agricultural, environmental and project facilitation activities; but only four districts for health and three for roads works and water supply. The region has a favourable climate and land for crop production. The important agro-ecological zones are the Highland, High/Medium Rainfall Perennial Banana/ Production zone; and the Lowland, Medium/Low Rainfall Annual Crop Production zone. At appraisal, the indigenous population was 1.6 million people in 290 000 households, dispersed in 550 villages with densities varying from 25 to 100 people per km2. Smallholder subsistence farming dominated the economy.

8. Poverty and welfare data indicated that the region was among the poorest in Tanzania. Over 40% of households were frequently deficient in staple food supply and over 80% were classified as poor. The target group universe was defined as between 170 000 and 195 000 households that comprised: the 30 to 40% of food-deficient families, with less than 1.2 acres of perennial crop or 5 acres of annual crop land - the primary target group; and the 40 to 50% of families that had some food security but no marketable surplus, with a perennial crop area of up to 2.5 acres or annual cropping of 5 to 7.5 acres - the secondary target group. Major causes of poverty were: distance from the road; lack of farm inputs, credit and extension; low prices, especially for coffee; inadequate access to safe water; scarcity of fuel wood; and lack of transport. The poorest families had: mud and thatch houses; limited cash crop production; no livestock; and pronounced child malnourishment.

9. Goal, Objectives and Components. The goal of the Project was to rehabilitate the region following the refugee encroachment and reverse the long term decline of agricultural production. The supporting objectives were to: improve household food production and incomes in a sustainable manner; support the process of improving environmental management through tree planting and water hyacinth control; improve access to safe drinking water supplies, health facilities and road access to

xiv

villages; and strengthen the implementation and service delivery capacity of the relevant District Departments and assist development of a participatory approach to resource management.

10. The six year Project had four components and a number of key activities, as follows:

· Agricultural Development: (Base cost USD 7.8 million, 40% of total)

- Multiplication and Distribution of Seeds and Planting Material; - Production Inputs and Equipment Supply; and - Improved Crop Management - diffusion of IPM/IPN techniques.

· Environmental Management: (Base cost USD 1.6m, 8% of total) - Communal and Individual Afforestation; - Control of Water Pollution; and - Institutional Strengthening

· Rural Infrastructure - Health, Water Supply, Roads: (Base cost USD 8.1m, 42% of total; plus USD 4.1m loan from OPEC for more major roads)

· Project Facilitation, Monitoring and Evaluation: (Base cost USD 1.8m, 9% of total) - PFMU - equipment, salarial and operating costs of co-ordination and administration; and - Districts - salaries, allowances, equipment, vehicles and training for district staff.

11. Total Project costs, including contingencies, were USD 20m, with the breakdown of financing as follows: IFAD loan - USD 14.8m; BSF grant - USD 2.5m; government - USD 2.1m; and beneficiaries - USD 0.6m. The OPEC loan of USD 4.1m for roads improvements was additional.

12. Implementation Arrangements. The principal national level responsibility falls under the Presidents Office Regional Administration and Local Government Department, (PO-RALG), which, through the Prime Ministers Office, handles policy guidance and liaison with Ministries. At the region, accountability lies with the Regional Administrative Secretary (RAS), who is backed up in practice by: the Project Steering Committee (PSC); and the Project Facilitation and Monitoring Unit (PFMU). In fact, the latter exercises the major tasks of guidance, arrangement of technical support to participating districts and downstream agencies; and dialogue with donors. At district level, Councils and Administrations are prime movers in planning and implementation of activities, backed up by the small District Project Facilitation Units (DPFUs). Key players are the District Executive Director (DED), the Chairperson of the District Council and the District Administrative Secretary (DAS). The ward is the link between villages and districts, particularly for planning, but in some cases has not been fully involved in Project operations. There is a wide range of competence and understanding among district staff and within Ward Executive Offices and Development Committees and in Village Assemblies and Governments. Village Finance, Economic Affairs and Planning Committees are, in theory, the source of Project proposals, but have considerable problems of capacity and capability.

13. Policy, Institutional and Design Changes. The ongoing evolution of agricultural and rural development policy has not conflicted with the established philosophy and operating modalities of KAEMP. The main institutional changes have been the relocation of the Regional Administration and Local Government Department; and devolution of agricultural, water and other technical functions to districts; these have also worked in favour of Project progress. Support of decentralisation and participatory village and district planning are key elements of the RDS that have received strong Project backing, but as yet with only limited results. Project facilitation and management has been flexible and responsive, leading to a number of design changes; the major of these are: the appraisal logical framework has been replaced by a more useful version and the logframe approach has begun to be introduced in village and district development planning; the increase in traditional staffing

xv

proposed at appraisal has been replaced by the use of consultants and appointment of unpaid, but well trained and assisted Farmer Cadre extensionists (FCs); the original contract arrangements with substantial incentives and subsidies to local groups and individuals have been switched to a system of advisory support for SGAs, other groups and informal farmer/seed growers; and the original rapid multip lication programme for cmd resistant cassava cultivars has had to be suspended and a new mother garden and farmer multiplier method employed.

14. Further changes have been: establishment of a new input supply and credit scheme in response to the failure of the original sub-component due to default/non-repayment; amended pattern of uptake for water supply interventions; promotion of diversification of crops and enterprises in response to adverse market conditions for coffee and in some areas, banana; the recent start to address the issues of marketing, which were not fully appreciated at appraisal; and the assimilation of IFAD-sponsored initiatives in gender mainstreaming training and HIV/AIDS mitigation.

Main Implementation Results

15. Financial Aspects of Performance. Of the total funds available of USD 24.12 million, expenditures to date are estimated at USD 18.71m, about 78%. Expenditures by financier are in all cases over 75% of original budget amounts. Main divergences by category of expenditure have been: input suppliers credit of only 7% of planned; and excessive salarial and operating costs, at 122% of budget. By component, significant divergences are: lower costs for agricultural development, at only 43% of planned, due to the demise of input credit; water supply expenditure of only 49% of planned; and excessive Project facilitation and monitoring costs, which are already 104% of those budgeted.

16. The aggregate status of outstanding loan and grant funds available for disbursement from the main sources is estimated as: IFAD loan - USD 1.66m, principally allocated to civil works (USD 0.50m) and supplier credit (USD 0.60m); BSF grant - USD 173 000; government USD 340 000; beneficiaries USD 50 000; and OPEC loan - USD 600 000, making an overall total of USD 2.82m.

17. Summary Physical Achievements. In overall coverage, the Project is estimated to have had a significant presence in 300 of the original 540 villages of the region, that is 159% of the initial target; and to have impacted 190 000 households, or 1 million people, representing 111% of target.

18. Agricultural Development. In Agricultural Development, uptake of improved seeds and planting materials has exceeded target except for clonal coffee and cassava. The targeted 24 Seed Growers Associations (SGAs) have been formed - and 18 of them so far registered. In improved crop management, the Project has fulfilled its targets in establishing 200 IPM/IPN farmer groups, of which 190 are still active, including several womens groups and IFAD/FAO-assisted farmer field schools, with total membership in excess of 5 000 at present, over 30% of them women. IPM/IPN techniques have been adopted by an estimated 6 000 farmers in addition to group members. The production inputs and equipment supply activity has proved unvia ble - only 160 farmer loans from 5 stockists were made, default was rife, and legal action is in train to recover outstanding loans and costs. Agricultural training and capacity building included provision of seed laboratory and soil testing equipment and facilities and refurbishment of the Farmers Training Centre at ARDI-Maruku. Two hundred and nineteen Village Extension Officers (VEOs) and other district staff and 9 000 farmers and one hundred and forty four SGA leaders have received training in Project activities and management skills. Of singular importance has been the appointment and training of Farmer Cadre extensionists; over 80 are posted, each typically with 30 to 40 farmer clients who add strongly to the extension impetus inculcated by the KAEMP group structure.

19. Environmental Management. In Environmental Management, there has been marked success in communal and individual afforestation, with a total of 3 280 acres and 2.1 million trees planted, an over 120% achievement. The claimed survival rate is 78%; Mission estimates put early growth rates at 50% to 80%. Eight hundred and forty tree nurseries have been established, about half operated by

xvi

individual growers and half by groups, schools and other institutions; at least 50 nurseries are now operating commercially. Uptake of wood saving stoves is estimated at 1 800 households or 52% of target; and water hyacinth control has entailed release of more than 30 million weevils following 14 pre and post-release surveys as against 18 planned. The on-target technical training of 26 forest department and extension staff; nearly 3 000 farmers in nursery practice; and over 2 500 village leaders on land management and soil conservation has been completed. The main shortfalls in the targeted objectives have been in district institutional strengthening, where staff numbers have not increased; and in communal resource management initiatives, where few have yet been attempted.

20. Rural Infrastructure. Under Rural Infrastructure, interventions in health appear to have directly covered about 900 000 people, with a bias to women and children. In equipment supply, a near-target 87 dispensary kits and 7 health centre kits were provided, but with some duplication and unsuitability. In malaria control, 62% of the targete d number of bed nets were procured of which 60% has either been sold or issued free; all planned training was carried out in year one, 1998, with 100% coverage as planned of District Health Management Team members who were trained as trainers, but only 27 to 32% of the planned lower echelon staff - and none of the important traditional birth attendants - trained. The prescribed cost sharing for health services has not been widely accepted or applied.

21. Water Supply. The water supply sub-component changed with the trend of demand, but discrepancies remain between achievements recorded and those able to be validated by the Mission. Technical design of works was to be done by district staff and construction by contractor/NGO. The competence of some technical design was questioned by the Mission; and much construction work seems to have been undertaken by district staff rather than by contractor, the reasons, costs and related conditions for which are unclear. The planned training of 18 technicians and 2 hydrologists became, in practice, for 46 technicians and one hydrologist, an achievement of over 230% - but a questionable one in relation to actual numbers of district water department staff employed. The numbers and types of schemes identified by the Mission as completed are: rehabilitated gravity schemes - 3, or 23% of target; new gravity schemes - 1, or 14%; deep wells - 17, or 95%; shallow wells - 51, or 230%; rainwater tanks - 67, or 223%; and protected springs - 72, or 205%. In addition, 3 pump schemes and 2 charcos dams were constructed, although such works were excluded at appraisal; and the Project is to provide equipment and supplies for three district water analysis laboratories not included at appraisal - and justification for which is questionable. The training and orientation of Village Water Users Group (VWUG) members covered 1 050 people. However, findings show that cost contributions prior to construction and cost sharing for operation and maintenance were - and are - limited; and administrative and management capability of groups and committees is rudimentary.

22. Implementation of the rural roads sub-component involved: participatory selection of sites; survey, design and supervision by consultants; and construction by contract. However, regional roads agencies played a major role after site identification with strong adherence to design parameters and commercial tendering/contracting processes. The OPEC loan funded rehabilitation of regional roads; the target total of 124 km was completed satisfactorily in 2001 by 4 contractors under 5 contracts. Village access roads works included minor items such as culverts and bridges and were accomplished by a mixture of mechanised and labour based technologies. Works cover 346 km and are about 95% achieved, pending remedial/completion inputs on one 13 km section. Standard of work has been satisfactory and the overall achievement of roads works has been commendable, although there are some reservations about drainage and gravel surfacing and out-sourcing of minor works. The sub- component included training in roads maintenance and repair of 4 roads engineers; 456 Village Roads Committee (VRC) members; and 760 village youths. All training has been done, but further training of roads technicians is required; and effectiveness of training/orientation of VRCs and groups responsible for repair and maintenance is yet to be proven.

23. Project Facilitation, Monitoring and Evaluation. Principally comprises overall co- ordination, accounting and reporting of activities as well as provision of vehicles, equipment, salarial and operating costs for regional and selected district staff. Related procurement, contract tendering

xvii

and funds provision exercises were fulfilled to target; staff appointment was completed in 1997 and the majority of procurement was done in 1998. Progress on district capacity building, beyond the sectoral training and project experience discussed above, has been less than expected. The M&E system has been changing continuously, with only rudiments of physic al recording and management information provision maintained. District Monitoring and Evaluation Officers (DMEOs) were appointed only in 2001; training took place only in 2002; quarterly reporting against AWPB is currently not in use; and surveys, studies and workshops have not been executed as planned or been unsatisfactory in coverage and content. Refinement of M&E goes on, but the quandary persists of: an over-ambitious and complex system; limited competence and resources at districts; and absence of real participatory input. Training in participatory rural appraisal (PRA) for 65 staff took place earlier and PRA studies have been completed in 44 villages. Training in use of the logical framework for 20 staff was done in 2001. Since then its concept and practical use for planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation have been demonstrated and applied within the districts and in 7 villages. The approach is promising, but community understanding and capability to apply it requires more assistance and long term support. Gender issues were given limited attention in Project design, but KAEMP has made some progress in enhancing womens participation. Further gender mainstreaming has been instigated by an IFAD grant in February 2002, under the Gender Strengthening Programme for Eastern and Southern Africa. Progress has been: training in gender awareness and approaches of 70 Project staff, including 19 women; appointment of 3 gender focal points per district; training of 200 village leaders and 22 women’s group, SGA and roads committee members; and start-up of a dissemination programme for gender related messages to communities.

Rural Poverty Impact

24. Overview. In the absence of comprehensive M&E records of Project impact, the draft Household Budget Survey of 2001 provides socio-economic data for Kagera that show that from 1991/92 to 2000/01, the share of population below the food poverty line declined from 23% to 18%; and that below the overall basic needs poverty line, from 42% to 29%; the latter figure compares with a national level of 36%. The median annual rural household income is put at TZS 801 000 (USD 809) and the mean annual consumption expenditure at TZS 756 000 (USD 763), indicating the precarious balance between family resources and needs. Data also indicate that: income inequalities are worsening; only 13% of houses have modern walls, 2% mains electricity and 31% improved water sources; life expectancy remains at 45 years; maternal mortality at 228 per hundred thousand; and infant mortality at 127 per thousand, 33% higher than the national average.

25. Impact on Physical and Financial Assets. The impact has been positive, mainly because of : increased farm productivity leading to food self-sufficiency, availability of surplus crops for sale and higher household incomes and ability to invest; establishment of tree nurseries as a source of income and tree planting as an income generating and asset accumulation venture, related also to occupation of additional village land; and roads improvement that has greatly facilitated market access and increased farmer/trader contacts and petty trading. These gains are based on: introduction of sound, farmer friendly, no-cost or low cost technologies; innovative extension methods; widespread sensitization and training of farmers and communities on the conservation and economic potential of tree planting; and support of productive processes by improved road access.

26. The evaluation recognises two categories of outcome: first hand, direct beneficiaries and benefits; and secondary, indirect beneficiaries and benefits, part of the trickle -down effect. From agricultural activities the former are estimated at 6 500 households; the latter at an additional 15 000 households. The first hand and secondary beneficiaries from environmental actions are estimated at 2 400 and 20 000 households. Roads beneficiaries, whose benefits are more tenuous, are estimated at 35 000 and 100 000 respectively. The quantum of physical and financial asset benefits and wider farm and household impact have been estimated from models set up to illustrate the effects of the principal farming and environmental interventions. The results are tabulated below.

xviii

Without Project USD With Project USD Incremental % Model Net Return to Net Return to Net Return Category Margin Family Margin Family Margin to Labour Day Labour Family Day Labour Upland Perennial Crops System/Farm 334 0.76 592 1.05 77 37 Lowland Annual Crops System/Farm 420 0.70 609 0.88 45 25

Tree Nursery na 220 2.20 Na Peak Break- Financial Investment even Year IRR % Tree Plantation na Na 731 12 18

27. The positive impact on physical and financial assets is shown in: ownership or rights of use of additional land, tree nurseries and tree plantations; livestock, especially cattle, purchase; better housing, ranging from steel sheet roofs to brick built houses; reduced indebtedness; ability to pay school fees and buy better clothes; and ownership of furniture, utensils, tools, bicycles, and radios. Project contribution to increased physical and financial assets is substantial, 3 on a scale of 1 to 4.

28. Impact on Human Assets. There have been some positive effects on human assets: agricultural and environmental activities have contributed to both food supply and family income, two key determinants of nutrition and affordability of health and education; but for health and water supply, the performance has been inadequate. Activities in health were expected to result in reduced incidence and severity of malaria, peri-natal complications and mortality, other common diseases and improved child nutrition; in the event, the evidence of significant impact is not yet conclusive. Nor is there evidence of decline in water-borne diseases, despite the intervention in water supply, which should have reduced the collection burden for women and children and assured safe and clean supplies. The Mission estimates that only 61 000 people, or 10 000 households -- as compared to the 98 000 beneficiaries estimated by the PFMU -- are covered by improved schemes and since many of these did not change accessibility, and most have been found to be contaminated, work burden alleviation and clean water availability have been limited. The Project has provided financial means that add to the rise in primary education brought about by government policy; and engendered probably the major change in human assets in the uplift in knowledge, skills and confidence of participants. The evidence is seen in: the competence and discipline of take-up of interventions; the level of participation and interest in new developments and social change; the success of the Farmer Cadre system; the ability of men and women farmers to present themselves and their views; and the coherence and resilience of the group structure. A similar, but as yet small change in understanding and attitudes is being wrought among local councils, development committees and staff of formal district, ward and village institutions. The contribution to increase in human assets for health benefits is modest, 2; and that for water supply effects is limited, 1; for the imparting of skills, knowledge and self-confidence the contribution is substantial, 3.

29. Impact on Social Capital and Empowerment. The Project has had a meaningful impact, emanating from the demand driven, participatory and group approach adopted in later years and from uplift of financial and human assets. All components have contributed, the main thrusts coming from: the IPM/IPN groups and SGAs; to a lesser extent, the environmental interventions with village groups and schools; and the health, water supply and roads O&M committees. The main weakness in social capital development and empowerment aspects is the limited degree of impact, so far, in the advancement of gender equity. There was also much more scope for Project activity on produce

xix

marketing problems, for which KAEMP was not equipped, or alerted to the need, to find solutions. Impact on social capital and people empowerment is assessed, in the round, as substantial, 3.

30. Impact on Food Security. Application of Project techniques has lifted crop yields and outputs significantly and typically moved poor, small farm beneficiary families from a position of seasonal food insecurity, to one of food self-sufficiency in most years. Estimated yield increases are over 100% for banana, 50% to 60% for ; 30 to 70% for ; and 40% to 60% for cassava. The farm models indicate that these yield increments lead, for the Upland, Perennial Crops system, to a substantial surplus of banana and grains/pulses available for sale; and for the Lowland, Annual Crops system, change a serious food deficit, to a marginal surplus in aggregate, with some grains/pulses available for sale. Impact on food security is substantial, 3.

31. Other Impacts. The impact on the environment and common resource base where the Project has been active has on balance been positive. However, the severity of the original state of degradation and continuing profligate cultivation of erosion-prone lands and periodic burning of the bush leave much still to be done. The Project has had limited impact in community-based natural resource management, or in wider application of soil conservation measures and agro-forestry. The effort in water hyacinth control has reportedly been effective, diminution of infestation having been assessed at over 70% in the lake. Environmental impact overall is modest, 2. The impact on institutions, policies and regulatory framework has come from working through the organs of district governance, as well as with NGOs and the private sector. The Project has instilled much orientation, training and experience, as seen in increased effectiveness of extension and the start of use of the PRA and logical framework in local planning. There has been little change in rural financial institutions, but the formation of groups and SGAs has been a positive development. KAEMP has not played a major part in the evolution of new policies and regulations but has utilised approaches and techniques that could influence policy and regulation formulation in future. Impact on institutions and services is classified as modest, 2; impact on policy/regulations was not assessed.

32. Key innovative aspects were: in farming, use of low cost, farmer/environment-friendly techniques - such as botanical extracts as pesticides and farmer grown seeds; in extension, strong reliance on groups, encouragement of farm record keeping and business management, and instigation of the Farmer Cadre system; in environment, use of schools and commercial nursery and planting practices; in implementation, incorporation of Project activities in district development plans and promotion of participation and the logical framework approach for planning. All of these promise to be successful and highly replicable approaches. The positive signs of likely sustainability are: best practice applied with simple but high impact IPM/IPN technologies, conservation approaches and extension systems; development of sound group structures; the orientation and training given to staff, farmers, groups and local agencies; and the initiation of better systems of planning and management of district affairs. Potentially negative factors are: the questionable capability of water users and roads committees to perform operation, maintenance and repair; lack of acceptance of cost sharing; possible inability of districts to provide the funds to maintain development impetus; and the imponderables of adverse climatic and marketing conditions. On balance, sustainability is assessed as modest, 2. The ratings for innovation and replicability are substantial, 3, for agriculture, environment and project facilitation; but at best, modest or 2, for infrastructure; actual replication is modest, 2. The overall impact assessment is that the Project has met - or come close to - most of its targets and while it has not been notably successful in health, water supply and the resilience of roads improvements, it has laid a technical foundation and demonstrated practicability for future rural and district development in Tanzania. The overall impact is assessed as between 2 and 3.

Performance of the Project

33. Relevance of Objectives. The relevance of the goa l at appraisal - of rehabilitation of the region and reversal of the long-term decline in agricultural production - was - and is - high, 4. The specific objective of agricultural development - to improve household food production and incomes in a sustainable manner - was apposite because it implies cost-limited but technically proven answers to

xx

problems of declining productivity; it continues to be germaine, with a high relevance, 4. The environmental management objectives of supporting afforestation, control of water hyacinth and promotion of wood saving stoves are considered valid, the proposed backing for the appointment of many more district forestry staff, less so; their relevance is put as substantial, 3. Rural infrastructure did not have a credible objective at appraisal but only a vague statement of intent to support the investments in agriculture and environment. The main aims of the health sub-component can be interpreted as to reduce: malaria incidence and severity; maternal and infant mortality and morbidity; and child malnutrition. These are highly relevant targets, but the relevance of the stated objectives, in the context of the severity of the problem, is modest, 2. The stated desired output for water supply was: farmers access to safe drinking water improved; relevance of this aim then, as now, is high, 4. The implied objectives for rural roads were: to facilitate transport of farm inputs and outputs and access to social infrastructures; and to increase skills and sensitisation of communities for road maintenance; the Project facilitation, monitoring and evaluation component had the main objectives of: strengthening implementation and service delivery capacity of district departments and assisting development of a participatory approach to resource management; relevance is high, 4.

34. Effectiveness. The goal achievement for the whole Project can be estimated from progress in arresting natural resource degradation, reversing farming productivity decline and measurably improving living standards of beneficiaries. Despite variation in impact of different components, aggregate effectiveness is assessed as reasonable, 2. The agricultural development component has largely achieved its objectives, transforming the predicament of participating farmers - and given the opening scenario of social disruption and resource degradation, effectiveness is high, 4. In environment, the component has had problems of staffing, the less immediate and tangible nature of benefits and higher risks; but operations have been quite successful and effectiveness substantial, 3. The health sub-component has been affected by over-emphasis on equipment supply, some of which proved not readily usable or serviceable; deficiencies in training programme design and coverage; inadequate sensitisation and community mobilisation; and inconsistency in supervision; these factors have reduced the effectiveness to modest,2. Water supply has been subject to change and difficulties in implementation; Project objectives of improved access, low operating cost and viable VWUGs have not been met and effectiveness is assessed as minimal, 1. The rural roads sub-component is close to accomplishing its target for works ; effectiveness of meeting the first part of the roads objective is high, 4; that for mobilisation of local maintenance capability is considered modest, 2. Operations under the Project facilitation component have varied from well managed to still only tentative in application, as in the case of M&E, support of PRAs and logical frameworks and gender equity; effectiveness is assessed as reasonable, 2.

35. Efficiency. The Project in total has entailed deployment of substantial resources and funds, particularly at start-up. The crux of efficiency is the quantum and likely continuity of benefits from the high level of costs incurred. An outline financial re-calculation of the internal rate of return, based on highly conservative estimates of uptake and benefit, show a calculated IRR of 15%, compared to the 19% at appraisal. The resilience of the IRR is also in line with that found at appraisal; that is, a reduction of benefits of 10% still gives a rate of return of 13%; thus the efficiency of the whole Project is put at substantial, 3. For agriculture, present and prospective expenditure is considerably below budget, partly due to cost containment strategies, and efficiency is substantial, 3. In environment incurred costs are lower than planned, despite physical achievements above predicted levels; efficiency is again substantial, 3. The health sub-component has been characterised by supply of unsuitable equipment and deficiencies in cost-sharing; efficiency is assessed as low, 1. Costs of water supply schemes are on average double appraisal estimates and unit water provision costs are over 50% higher than standards; levels of salary/fee payments for skilled labour inputs appear excessive; and sustainability of water source improvements is not well assured; for these reasons, efficiency is low, 1. Records for roads reveal: wide cost discrepancies between districts for similar works; disproportionate design and supervision costs; limited local labour employment benefit; and doubts about arrangements for repair and maintenance; efficiency is modest, 2. The Project facilitation and monitoring component has incurred excessive costs and still has weaknesses in M&E, in district capacity building activities and in gender; efficiency is put as modest, 2. Overall Project

xxi

performance as assessed by UNOPS supervision missions reveals only minor problems, ranked 2 on the UNOPS scale, except for initial delays in staffing: in the first year for a range of indicators; in years 2 and 3 for loan covenant compliance, the M&E system and time over-runs; but with a continuing problem, up to 2002, of counterpart funding.

Performance of the Partners

36. The handling by IFAD of the process of formulation and design could have been faster and less tortuous and Project concept and content less top-down, ambitious and complex. During implementation, the experience of the PFMU, government and other partners has been that back-up has been timely and effective; overall, performance is ranked 3. As the co-operating institution, UNOPS has made four annual supervision visits, two with IFAD and two with BSF participation. Supervision has been consistent and generally thorough, but limited in terms of medical and water engineering expertise, lax in oversight of district financial recording and control and optimistic with regard to M&E proficiency and target achievement; UNOPS performance is assessed as adequate, 2/3. Central Government has provided good continuity in Project oversight, policy guidance and donor and ministerial liaison, but co-operation of other ministries has been less conscientious and there has been persistent delay and shortfall in counterpart funding. Regional and District Commissioners Offices and Administrations have played a crucial role in enablement and support of project activities. Major district weaknesses have been stringency of finance and resource availability; at ward and village level there have been rather more problems of competence of staff and lack of resources; overall, government performance is satisfactory, 3. Project management, comprising the PFMU, technical cadre and DPFs, has shouldered the major responsibility for driving forward local interest and participation with dedication and competence. Work planning, budgeting and progress chasing have been reasonable; and recording and reporting timely, albeit accuracy and relevance of data presented have been less than sound. Specific shortfalls in management performance concern: use of local organisations and prior beneficiary contribution to schemes; failure of the input supply credit scheme and delay in finding an alternative approach; lax oversight of district expenditures and individual scheme inputs and costs; delay and drift in M&E; and poor technical/management supervision of water supply. In aggregate, Project management performance is assessed as competent between 2 and 3. The Project has engaged available NGO expertise, particularly in innovations in agriculture and group support, with active co-operation and few problems of overlap. The Project itself has been a major player in the development of CBOs in Kagera, in the form of IPM/IPN groups, SGAs and local committees. The NGO/CBO contribution to support of KAEMP is ranked as substantive, 3. The pre-existence of the Belgian funded Kagera Community Development Project, KCDP was a useful precedent for design of KAEMP. The continuing in put by Belgian Embassy staff to KCDP and frequent contact with the BSF regional co-ordinator have had practical advantages: no problems have been reported in management of grant funds and BSF/JP has dealt promptly and positively with requested variations in programmes and budgets. The OPEC Fund has maintained an active dialogue with the PFMU and responded in a timely and efficient manner to technical or administrative communication and withdrawal requests. Performance of cofinanciers is put at 3. The performances of the Project and development partners are summarised in the tables below.

Component/Activity Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency Agricultural Development 4 4 3 Environmental Management 3 3 3 Rural Infrastructure: - Health 2 2 1 - Water Supply 4 1 1 - Roads 4 4 and 2 2 Project Facilitation/Monitoring 4 2 2 Whole Project 4 2 3 Partner IFAD UNOPS Govt Project Mgt NGO/CBOs Cofinanciers Rating 3 2/3 3 2/3 3 3

xxii

Insights and Recommendations

37. Individual insights of key significance for design and conduct of future projects are:

· the zero year concept: the need for a period of preparation for sensitisation, planning, mobilisation, participant liaison, staffing, training and some procurement pre-Project;

· the gender dimension: desirability of clear identification of gender equity issues and explicit description of interventions/mechanisms to ensure fair sharing and improvement in status of women;

· linkage of components: lack of sufficient, ongoing inter-component linkage, e.g. between agriculture and health/child nutrition, can preclude attainment of the full potential for synergy;

· sustainability concerns: questions of sustainability of Project benefits and of definition of the means and methods of phasing out of projects need to be more comprehensively addressed;

· the terms and conditions for district staff involvement: terms of commitment, accountability, job description, incentives, penalties, and opportunities for training/ promotion, need to be spelt out;

· the importance of communic ations and flexibility: adequate resourcing of communications and provision of flexibility for project management are necessary pre-requisites of impact;

· the quandary of record keeping and reporting: a new approach needs to be devised to make M&E effective in providing management, process assessment and impact evaluation information;

· in contrast, farm business recording has been a notable and replicable success: many IPM/IPN, FFS and SGA members are assiduous users of farm and household budget planning data; and

· the group and minimal cost approach: for information dissemination/technology transfer, the KAEMP/Farmer Cadre approach can be a guide for transformation of extension provision.

38. The full set of Mission recommendations by component is presented in the Main Report; those selected as being of particular urgency or concern are set out below. It is recommended that:

· direct farmer/group action to improve marketing of produce be instigated/facilitated as a first step to an increasingly commercialised and profitable farming sector;

· group, SGA, roads, water and health committee and CBO viability be consolidated with further and advanced training and continuing advisory support for a period of at least one year;

· the groups, Farmer Cadres and tree growers that KAEMP has supported be promoted as preferred agencies and (paid) consultants/resource persons for other donor and NGO projects;

· responsibility and resources for water hyacinth control be handed over as soon as practicable to LVEMP and/or to the appropriate regional or district agencies;

xxiii

· an agro-forestry, soil conservation and land management project be devised, for communal natural resource management, involving village governments and the private sector;

· a selected number of Village Health Committees be trained and coached to implement cost sharing as pilot schemes to give feed back to VDCs for health planning and budgeting purposes;

· VHWs and Traditional Birth Attendants be included in additional training in disease prevention and community mobilisation;

· no planned or additional water supply schemes be constructed until their feasibility has been properly assessed and their design approved by a competent professional adviser;

· as the highest priority for water quality and safety for existing Project schemes, protection, hygiene and sanitation measures to prevent or treat for contamination be introduced;

· the decision to install water quality laboratories in all districts be re-visited, with a feasibility study to include a thorough comparative costing of alternative means to meet district obligations;

· a detailed comparative costing be made of a small sample of Project-assisted schemes to determine accurate unit costs and the efficiency of different modes of implementation;

· a small revolving stock of the normal wearing parts of hand pumps be facilitated at district level, preferably through private sector stockists - or private/public sector co-operation;

· replacement of some of the borehole hand pumps that are unsuitable for the present depth/work of pumping be arranged;

· for roads rehabilitation/construction a combined use of labour-based and machinery technology be made; and division of sub-projects into minor and small contracts be avoided;

· the whole M&E approach, systems, data formats and procedures be simplified and streamlined in line with real local capability and resources;

· district staff and village governments and officers be given continued support in participatory planning and M&E - and in the utilization of the logical framework; and

· knowledge and skills in gender analysis and mainstreaming be further consolidated to ensure institutionalisation and integration in regional, district and community plans, including use of gender sensitive indicators and analysis of gender disaggregated data.

39. The recommendations indicate the strong need for further consolidation of training and knowledge endowment and capacity building of groups and committees that will stretch beyond the proposed Project completion date. The Mission recommends that the possibility be explored of utilising part of the year 6 funding - and a measure of additional funding by IFAD and BSF/JP if proven necessary by a more detailed costing of the inputs required - for a consolidation phase of at least one further year of limited and targeted assistance to optimise impact and obviate what could otherwise be a certain loss of development impetus. This extended input would concentrate on the further training, guidance and management support of groups, SGAs and committees on whose competence the sustainability of Project benefits will largely depend. It would also encompass additional support for districts, wards and villages in planning and development implementation processes. IFAD and BSF/JP should consult with PO-RALG and the Regional and District

xxiv

Administrations, probably in the context of the Agreement at Completion Point, to formulate an appropriate follow-up programme.

xxv

xxvi

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

INTERIM EVALUATION

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT

MAIN REPORT

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Background of the Evaluation

1. The Mission was mounted by the Office of Evaluation at the request of the Belgian Survival Fund, to follow up on the April 2001 KAEMP mid-term review and the IFAD Country Programme Evaluation in Tanzania of October/November 2001.

2. The evaluation has a two-fold objective: to assess and document the impact and sustainability of the Project; and to develop a series of insights and recommendations that will serve to improve Project activities during the remaining implementation period and the design of similar future projects and programmes in Tanzania. The evaluation is also expected to contribute to the knowledge base on rural poverty alleviation of IFAD and its partners; and to assist in the preparation of the new IFAD Country Strategic Opportunities Paper - COSOP – for Tanzania in 2003.

B. Methodology and Approach

3. This interim evaluation is one of a series undertaken for selected projects in 2002, that is based on application of the new IFAD Impact Evaluation Methodology. The framework for this methodology lays primary stress on rural poverty impact, as a principal measure of immediate project success - and as an indicator of the contribution of IFAD to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. These encompass: reduction of extreme poverty - by half by the year 2015; universal primary education; gender equality; reduction of infant, child and maternal mortality; reproductive health services; and reversal of environmental resource losses.

4. The framework also includes assessment of the performance of the intervention, which encompasses three key criteria:

(a) relevance - of the project objectives to the development needs of the target group, as well as to government policy and strategies in poverty alleviation and IFAD aims;

(b) effectiveness - of achievement of the objectives, in securing inputs, delivering outputs and assuring impact on beneficiaries and institutions; and

(c) efficiency - of the use of resources, staff, funds, materials and equipment during implementation.

5. The third element of the framework is the performance of the partners, that is, of IFAD, the cooperating institution, government, co-financiers, project management and NGOs and civil society organisations. This covers such aspects as: adequacy of design; effectiveness of implementation and supervision; conscientiousness in execution of works and service provision; engagement with partners and integration with other development efforts; application to Project aims; and capacity building effects.

C. Work Programme

6. Preparatory work for the interim evaluation was carried out by the Office of Evaluation. A desk review was undertaken of Project documents to identify issues for the evaluation which were used as a basis for the Approach Paper for the evaluation. The Approach Paper laid out the methodology to be used, outlined the key issues for the evaluation and provided an indicative schedule for the work plan. The Approach Paper - and subsequent briefings - stressed that: the evaluation was to be an independent assessment, with emphasis on observation and examination of actual operations and real outcomes of the Project at grass roots level in farms, households and communities - and not just on a stereotyped analysis of records, reports and performance figures.

7. The Mission assembled in Tanzania on 10 November 2002 and worked under the aegis of: the Regional Administration and Local Government Department of the Presidents Office; the Regional Administration for Kagera; and the Administrations, Councils and Ward and Village Authorities for the five Districts involved, viz: Karagwe, Ngara, , Muleba and Bukoba Rural. Initial briefings in Dar es Salaam were held with the Ministries of: Agriculture and Food Security, Health and Finance; the Counsellor for International Cooperation of the Belgian Embassy; FAO and UNDP.

Photo 1: An improved banana plot, Karagwe Source: IFAD Mission 2002

8. Fifteen days were then spent in field work in Kagera, visiting all five of the Project Districts and the various divisions, wards and villages that are the focus of Project activity; meeting Local Government councillors and administrators, community representatives, NGO officials, groups and individual participants; reviewing the status and performance of interventions; meeting more than two hundred farmers and families; holding over thirty in-depth group discussions; and completing the new, IFAD evaluation matrix forms with Project staff in all five districts - and, in an abridged format, in one village.

9. The preliminary Mission findings, issues arising and tentative recommendations were presented in the form of a debriefing note for discussion at a Regional Wrap-up Meeting and Stakeholder Workshop in Bukoba on 2 December; and, suitably amended, at a National Wrap-up Meeting in

2

Dar es Salaam on 6 December. The findings now presented in this draft report reflect the gist of the responses and critiques from the interaction with: some sixty district, farmer and community representatives and Project staff in Bukoba; and ten senior ministry and partner agency officers in Dar es Salaam.

10. They also reflect the further, more detailed analysis, projection and deduction from the figures collected on Project performance and impact. It is intended that the presentation of the findings will enable agreement in principle with government and partners on the main conclusions, issues, insights and recommendations for application in the remaining period to Project completion - and in future project and programme design.

D. Development and Project Perspective

11. Tanzania has dramatically transformed its political system and economy over the past decade and a half and is now acknowledged by the country donor group and the wider internatio nal community generally as among the leading sub-Saharan African countries in terms of economic reform and assurance of social equity. This is confirmed by the debt relief granted by the Paris Club bilateral creditors in 1997; and by its qualification in November 2001 as a prospective beneficiary of the highly indebted poor countries - HIPC - initiative for debt forgiveness, which is expected to reduce debt service obligations by half by 2003.

12. Since 1996, under the influence of market liberalisation and strong fiscal discipline, national economic growth in terms of real GDP has averaged over 4%; it is currently estimated at around 5% - and is prospectively forecast to remain at or above this level. GDP per head remains at around USD 250 but the annual inf lation rate has been contained at about 5% per year and public finances, despite a low revenue take, are approximately in balance.

13. The agricultural sector itself has recorded growth of 3% per year, as a result of liberalisation and commercialisation -- but with wide year to year fluctuations due to climatic factors, yields and export crop values. Agriculture is predominantly smallholder subsistence based, employs over 80% of the workforce and accounts for 45% to 50% of GDP and over 50% of all exports.

14. Tanzania as a country - and Kagera as a region - are rather unusual in Third World agricultural development terms in that, to a large extent, they enjoy a favourable climate and a varied, but benign natural resource base in terms of land capability, water and vegetative cover. This includes the ready availability of surplus land of reasonable quality in all except the most densely populated areas; and although land is almost exclusively vested in the state, customary rights of use are strong; security of tenure for farmer occupiers is largely assured; and access to new land can be awarded to genuine applicants by most village governments.

15. KAEMP was promulgated at this time of significant change not only in the macro-economic and political climate, but also coincided with the introduction of policy changes under the Local Government Reform Programme in public service reform and decentralisation. This resulted in the devolution of a major measure of responsibility and authority for local administration and development to the districts.

16. More recently, in 2001 and 2002, government has further enhanced the policy and regulatory framework for rural development, with adoption of its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP); the Agricultural Sector Development Strategy; the Rural Development Strategy; and the new Agricultural Sector Development Programme. All of these continue the emphasis on devolution, good governance, district and local self-reliance, private sector participation and gender aspects of poverty alleviation in development.

17. The clear priorities for development investment are spelt out in the PRSP: education; health; water; agriculture; roads; and the legal system. It is implicit in the Paper and explicit in the subsequent

3

strategy and programme documents, that agriculture, as the principal productive activity and only significant income generating pursuit of the rural population, must play the pivotal role in the realisation of poverty reduction objectives.

18. Districts are formulating their own development plans on the basis of these reforms and priorities. District Councils and Administrations are increasingly assuming responsibility for agricultural and natural resources interventions and taking a leading role in development implementation. KAEMP has reflected government policy in being increasingly integrated into the district planning and implementation process. It also follows the IFAD/BSF strategy, with implementation by a combination of government, district and village councils and agencies; NGOs, CBOs and the private sector. For its duration, KAEMP has been a major provider of donor assistance to Kagera Region.

Photo 2: A plant nursery, Source: IFAD Mission 2003

4

II. MAIN DESIGN FEATURES AND IMPLEMENTATION RESULTS

A. Proje ct Rationale and Strategy

19. The prevailing need at the time of design of KAEMP - and a major determinant of the rationale for intervention - was to combat the adverse effects of the influx of 600 000 refugees, a near 40% increase in the local population, which was exacerbating: the already declining soil fertility and agricultural productivity; the depletion of vegetative cover on erosion susceptible lands; the scarcity of safe and clean drinking water; the pressure on local health services; and the deteriorating condition of rural and village access roads. The emergency assistance that was already being provided, by IFAD- BSF/JP, among others, had to be supplemented by extended investment and more effective service provision to protect family livelihoods and enable regional and district agencies to cope with the resulting problems.

20. The severity of the refugee impact was such that a strategy of direct action was needed to assure food security, household incomes and reversal of degradation. In agriculture, this implied the supply of improved seeds, planting materials and inputs; and introduction of simple new husbandry techniques, such as integrated pest management (IPM) and integrated plant nutrition (IPN). In environment, strengthening of district forest staff, tree seedling production and tree planting were identified as main planks of a natural resources recovery and conservation strategy. The strategy for inclusion of infrastructure and services interventions was to tackle the constraints to productivity, marketing and well-being of: lack of equipment, supplies and training for health facilities; the time and effort involved in safe water collection; and the poor condition of rural roads. Development responsibility lay with Regional and District Administrations and Ward and Village Authorities; it was an integral part of the rationale that implementation be lodged in the devolved local government system, as a means of capacity building and orienting district staff to the participatory approach.

B. Project Are a and Target Group

21. Kagera is the remote north western region bordering Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Road access is difficult and although electricity and telephone services are available, they are notably scarce in rural areas. The Project area was defined as all five districts for the agricultural, environmental and project facilitation activities; but only four districts for health and three for roads works and water supply. The region has a favourable climate and land for crop production. The important agro- ecological zones are the Highland, High/Medium Rainfall Perennial Banana/Coffee Production zone; and the Lowland, Medium/Low Rainfall Annual Crop Production zone. At appraisal, the indigenous population was 1.6 million people in 290 000 households, dispersed in 550 villages with population densities varying from 100 to 25 people per km2. Smallholder subsistence farming dominated the regional economy and other formal employment was - and is - negligible.

22. Data on poverty incidence indicated that the welfare index for the region was among the lowest in Tanzania. Over 40% of households were frequently deficient in staple food supply and over 80% were classified as poor. The target group universe was defined as between 170 000 and 195 000 households that comprised: the 30 to 40% of farm families that were not food self-sufficient, with less than 1.2 acres of perennial crop or 5 acres of annual crop land - the primary target group; and the 40 to 50% of families that had some food security but no marketable surplus, with a perennial crop area of 1.2 to 2.5 acres or annual cropping of 5 to 7.5 acres - the secondary target group.

23. At appraisal, the major causal factors of poverty were identified as: distance from the road; lack of farm inputs, tools, credit and extension services; low prices, especially for coffee; inadequate access to safe water; scarcity of fuel wood; and lack of transport. The poorest families were typified as having primitive mud and thatch houses; limited cash crop production; no, or very few, livestock; and a pronounced incidence of child malnourishment.

5

C. Goal, Objectives and Components

24. The goal of the Project was to rehabilitate the region following the adverse effects of refugee encroachment and reverse the long term decline of agr icultural production. The supporting, specific objectives were to: improve household food production and incomes in a sustainable manner; support the process of improving environmental management through tree planting and water hyacinth control; improve access to safe drinking water supplies, health facilities and road access to villages; and strengthen the implementation and service delivery capacity of the relevant District Departments and assist development of a participatory approach to resource management.

25. In pursuit of these objectives, the Project had four components and a number of sub-components or activities, as summarised below:

· Agricultural Development: (Base cost USD 7.8 million, 40% of total) - Multiplication and Distribution of Seeds and Planting Material - establishment of farmer-based system for popularisation of banana, cassava, maize and beans cultivars, with strong research, extension and logistics support; - Production Inputs and Equipment Supply - operation of revolving fund for stockists of small equipment and inputs, pending credit facility/agreement establishment; and - Improved Crop Management - support for development and diffusion of IPM/IPN techniques through innovative extension methods.

· Environmental Management: (Base cost USD 1.6m, 8% of total) - Communal and Individual Afforestation - support for establishment of tree seedling nurseries and encouragement of woodlot planting, with extension and logistics support; - Control of Water Pollution - surveys, training and set up of weevil breeding and distribution system for water hyacinth control in basin; and - Institutional Strengthening - financing of training, equipment supply and additional staff and logistics.

· Rural Infrastructure - Health, Water Supply, Roads: (Base cost USD 8.1m, 42% of total; plus USD 4.1m loan from OPEC for more major roads) - Health - provision of equipment, training and limited logistics support for health centres and dispensaries; - Water Supply - survey, identification, construction on contract, of up to 140 water supply schemes, training of staff and user group and technical support; and - Roads - identification, design, construction on contract of key roads and bridges for village access, including training, equipment, establishment/support of O&M groups.

· Project Facilitation, Monitoring and Evaluation: (Base cost USD 1.8m, 9% of total) - PFMU - provision of equipment, vehicles, salaries and allowances for regional cadre and agencies (incl ARDI-Maruku) for project coordination and administration; and - Districts – provision of salaries, allowances, equipment, vehicles and training for district staff.

26. The total Project costs, including contingencies, were USD 20m, with the breakdown of financing as follows: IFAD loan - USD 14.8m; BSF grant - USD 2.5m; government - USD 2.1m; and beneficiaries - USD 0.6m. The OPEC loan of USD 4.1m for roads improvements was additional. The Project was designed to be completed in six years, with a phasing of expenditures of 62% in the first three years.

6

D. Imple mentation Partners and Arrangements

27. The principal national level responsibility falls under the Presidents Office Regional Administration and Local Government Department, (PO-RALG), which, through the Prime Ministers Office, handles the liaison role with concerned Ministries. At the region, accountability for progress and performance lies with the Regional Administrative Secretary (RAS), who is backed up by: the Project Steering Committee (PSC); and the Project Facilitation and Monitoring Unit (PFMU). In practice, the latter exercises the major tasks of guidance, liaison and arrangement of technical support to participating districts and downstream agencies; and dialogue with donors - IFAD, BSF/JP and OPEC and associated agencies such as UNOPS, UNDP, FAO, the Belgian Embassy and NGOs.

28. At the district level, Councils and District Administrations are the prime movers in the planning and implementation of Project activities, backed up by the District Project Facilitation Units (DPFUs). Key players are the District Executive Director (DED), the Chairperson of the District Council and the District Administrative Secretary (DAS). The ward is the major link between villages and districts; it has been involved in the planning and oversight of Project interventions as part of its overall development planning, approval and supervision role, but has in some cases tended not to be kept fully informed and involved in Project operations under implementation, when direct contact between villages, groups and the DPFU has often become the norm. There is a wide range of competence and understanding among district staff and within Ward Executive Offices and Development Committees and in Village Assemblies and Governments; a few have a reasonable understanding of participation and enthusiasm for Project intervention, but the majority are yet to be properly sensitised, informed and convinced about its benefits. The Village Finance, Economic Affairs and Planning Committee is, in theory, the source of ideas and proposals for Project intervention, but there are considerable problems of capacity and capability at this level.

E. Major Changes in Policy and Institutions during Implementation

29. There has been an ongoing evolution of national agricultural and rural development policies, as well as continuing adjustment of the implementation of the Local Government Reform Programme, in light of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and the variable experience of implementation. These have not conflicted with the established philosophy and operating modalities of KAEMP, nor have they entailed substantive modification of Project procedures or activities. The main institutional changes have been the relocation of the Regional Administration and Local Government Department and the devolution of the agricultural, livestock, water and other technical functions to the districts.

30. The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) focuses on strengthening the institutional framework, marketing efficiency and enablement of private sector participation in the industry, as well as mainstreaming agricultural development in overall planning. The Rural Development Strategy (RDS) emphasises the promotion and equitable sharing of growth across a wide range of rural pursuits; increasing access to services and opportunities; reducing risks and vulnerability; and promoting good governance.

31. Support of decentralisation and participatory village, ward and district planning are key elements of the RDS and are concepts that have received active Project backing, but as yet with only limited results. Much more needs to be done to make devolution development responsibility a workable reality for Village, Ward and District Administrations, not least in ensuring adequate resources and funding - and their prudent deployment - for high priority projects. This is not the case at present - and is a major concern for Project management.

F. Design Changes during Implementation

32. The facilitation and overall management of the Project has been marked by a flexible and responsive approach to sub-projects and activities identified in a participatory manner. This has led to the emergence of a number of design changes; the major of these can be summarised as follows:

7

· Logical Framework. The logical framework presented at appraisal was not considered adequately detailed and explicit as a tool for project management. A revised logical framework was produced by KAEMP management with consultancy assistance, which spelt out nine key outputs. These are now established as the basic structure for the compilation of annual work plans and budgets and for the reporting of Project status, although as reported later, given their introduction only in 2000, they are still not working effectively in guiding management or in measuring progress and impact. The logical framework has, since 2001, also begun to be introduced by KAEMP for village and district development planning.

· Staffing. At appraisal, the traditional approach was taken to the question of availability of qualified extension and technical staff, that is to recommend the recruitment of more permanent district employees for various Project components. The difficulties encountered in doing so - and the questionable advisability of adding to district payrolls - prompted the PFMU to adopt alternative approaches to meet the demand. In forestry, the use of consultants overcame the shortage of forest officers; and in agriculture, the adoption of the group extension and farmer field school approaches and the appointment of unpaid, but well trained and assisted Farmer Cadre extensionists (FCs) has proved more practicable than finding and employing large numbers of Village Extension Officers (VEOs). In addition, the numbers of Project-paid staff has been reduced in line with the recommendatio ns of supervision missions and the need for a smooth hand-over, as officers have been absorbed on to district payrolls.

· Contracts and Subsidies. To get Project operations underway at the beginning - and to meet the specific technical demands of some of the seed production activities - it was necessary for KAEMP to select - from nominees put forward in local meetings - contract seed growers, IPM/IPN group leaders and tree nursery operators - and to provide subsidies to the local groups and individuals concerned to assure successful start-up of their activities. The Project supplied free inputs and also bought back for wider distribution a large part of the output of seeds, seedlings and plants produced. Later, the contract grower and subsidy arrangement was amended in favour of a switch to advisory support for seed growers associations (SGAs), other groups and informal farmer/seed growers. This was necessary because the selection and subsidy approach had proven to be expensive and to favour the more able and often relatively better-off farmer. However, it was also possible because the initial investment had proven successful in providing the catalyst for improved seed growing and plant production - and demonstrating that these could be attractive and commercia lly viable activities for many farmers, including those in the smaller acreage and poorest groups.

· Cassava Mosaic Resistant Planting Material. Cassava mosaic disease (cmd) continues to be prevalent in the districts. The original rapid multiplication programme by the Project had to be suspended when the Uganda variant of cmd was found. A change in plan is now underway based on the establishment of a new mother garden at ARDI-Maruku research centre planted with the resistant SS4 cultivar from Uganda, and the use of farmer multiplier/growers to provide some 370 acres of improved, cmd resistant planting material before Project end.

· Input Supply and Credit. It was originally envisaged that the Project would facilitate the supply of inorganic fertilisers and pesticides as well as tools, equipment and other requisites through a credit scheme for stockists. In the event, the emphasis has been on the use of natural organic sources for fertilisation and pest control; and the stockist credit scheme had, until recently, resulted in a high rate of default/non-repayment. Following the demise of the previous scheme and two years of intensive dialogue with the formal rural banking sector

8

by the PFMU and UNOPS, an agreement to open an alternative channel for input supply credit using the SGAs and an established bank, the Postal Bank of Tanzania was formalised in October 2002 and the total release of funds to date amounts to TZS 122m (USD 123 000).

· Weevils and Water Hyacinth Control. The existing static rearing facilities for the multiplication of weevils for water hyacinth control are in process of being supplemented by the establishment of one or more mobile mass rearing facilities which will allow more flexible and cost-effective control, possibly under the jurisdiction of farmer groups or village councils.

· Water Supply Schemes. The original estimates of the pattern of uptake for interventions in the water supply sector were modified, as had been allowed for in the Project design, when the actual scale and scope of need, practicability of source improvement and preparedness of villages to cooperate emerged from initial awareness and planning meetings. The numbers for rehabilitation of existing and construction of new gravity schemes was reduced to less than half and those of protection of existing sources, shallow well construction and rainwater harvesting tanks increased. In addition, one pumping scheme renovation and excavation of two small dams which had not been foreseen as feasible at appraisal, because of their high cost or hygiene implications, were undertaken.

· Diversification of Crops and Enterprises. In response to the dramatic fall in the value of coffee as the main cash crop and the difficult market conditions for banana in some areas, the Project has expanded the range of alternative crops for which it has facilitated the supply of seeds, planting material and cultural, processing and marketing advice. These now include: vanilla; rice; (round-Irish) potato; soya ; pineapple; mulberry - for sericulture; vegetable seeds for womens groups; and the moringa oilseed bearing tree. It has also facilitated a number of SGA and IPM/IPN groups to diversify into income generating activities including livestock keeping - cattle, goats and chickens; introduction of different species for tree nurseries; and complementary services provision for some farmer cadres.

· Marketing. At design no clear strategy was put in place to address issues of marketing. With an increase in production, leading to surpluses and a fall in prices, KAEMP has found it necessary to start to design strategies to enhance commercial linkages between farmers and private markets/ businessmen.

· Gender Mainstreaming and HIV/AIDS Interventions. Latterly, the Project has again demonstrated a wider development consciousness in assimilating the IFAD-sponsored initiatives in gender mainstreaming training and HIV/AIDS mitigation.

33. The PFMU, in concert with the Ministry of Finance and PO-RALG, was also successful in persuading OPEC to allow the establishment of a Special Account for the regional and district roads work sub-component. This is understood to be the first time that OPEC has agreed to such an arrangement, which was particularly important in reducing delays in approval of works and payment of contractors.

G. Main Implementation Results

Overview and Commentary

34. The overall impression of Project performance is favourable, although some activities, particularly in health, water supply, community involvement and participation have been apparently less successful. From the outset, the Project experienced external problems such as delays in government approval and financing; and recruitment of the numbers and calibre of staff required. It

9

also experienced internal difficulties, as a result of shortcomings and a top down approach in design, related to the enormous effort and protracted time needed to create awareness and inculcate Project interest in participation and ensure sound local planning as a basis for demand driven interventions. As a result, in the early years, a less participatory approach than was desired had to be adopted.

35. Nevertheless, as detailed further below, the Project has: reached a respectable proportion of the target group in a satisfactory way, despite the absence of clear strategies and mechanisms to do so; eventually engendered a reasonable level of participation, albeit more in terms of contribution to specific interventions than in involvement in planning, decision making and ownership; and significantly improved social cohesion and local self-help. It has also made strides in starting the long process of giving districts, wards and villages a measure of capability in coherent planning - and proficient management and monitoring - of development. In various individual activities, such as roads improvement; raising agricultural productivity; assuring availability of seeds and planting materials; and tree planting to combat degradation, Project targets have been equalled or exceeded.

Financial Aspects of Performance

36. The extent to which the achievements and shortfalls described have affected the financial progression and status of the Project is set out in Appendix 4 - Financial Management Analysis, and specifically in the tables used by Project management and supervision missions to measure progress of loan disbursement. A more concise assessment of Project financial performance, is summarized in Tables 1 and 2, below.

Table 1 Project Funds – Availability and Utilisation by Cost Category

Investment Costs Estimate at Design Actual to Date, September 2002 Value USD m % Value USD m % % of Planned Civil Works 10.57 44 9.62 52 91 Vehicles 1.28 5 1.30 7 101 Equipmt/Materials 2.82 12 1.79 10 64 Suppliers Credit 3.50 15 0.25 1 7 Technical Assistance 1.50 6 1.28 7 86 Training/studies 1.58 7 0.99 5 63 Sub-total 21.26 88 15.23 82 72

Recurrent Costs Salaries/Allowances 1.02 4 1.28 7 125 Other Operating 1.84 8 2.20 11 120 Sub-total 2.86 12 3. 48 18 122

Total Project Costs 24.12 100 18.71 100 78

37. The tables relate the funds available to the actual disbursements by category and component. Following the incorporation of the OPEC loan for major roads of USD 4.1m in the overall Project costs, but excluding the recent IFAD grants for gender and HIV/AIDS activities, the funds available were USD 24.12 million, equivalent at that point to some TZS 19.3 billion. Expenditures to date are estimated at USD 18.71m with a local currency equivalent of TZS 18.5bn, about 78% of the projected final costs. Expenditures by financier are presented in Table 6 of Appendix 4; all are over 75% of the original budgeted amounts.

10

Table 2 Project Funds – Availability and Utilisation by Component

Component Estimate at Design Actual to Date, September 2002 Value USD m % Value USD m % % of Planned Agricultural 7.41 31 3.18 17 43 Development (inc inputs credit) Environmental 1.85 8 1.29 7 70 Management Rural Infrastructure: 12.58 52 11.89 63 94 - Health 1.03 4 0.94 5 91 - Water Supply 3.06 13 1.50 8 49 - Roads 8.49 35 9.45 50 111 Project Facilitation and Monitoring 2.28 9 2.36 13 104 Total Project Costs 24.12 100 18.71 100 78

38. The main divergences in disbursements have been: expenditure on input suppliers credit of only 7% of that planned; and excessive salarial and operating costs, at 122% of budget. In terms of components, the significant divergences are: the lower costs for agricultural development, at only 43% of planned, due to the demise of the input credit scheme; environmental management costs of 70% of planned; water supply expenditure of only 49% of planned; and excessive Project facilitation and monitoring costs, which are already 104% of those budgeted. The Rural Infrastructure component overall, perhaps not surprisingly with its emphasis on contract execution, has maintained the closest relationship to projected expenditure, at 94% of budget.

39. The aggregate status of the outstanding balances, representing loan and grant funds still available for disbursement from the main funding instruments is estimated to be: IFAD loan - USD 1.66m, principally allocated to civil works (USD 0.50m) and supplier credit (USD 0.60m); BSF grant - USD 173 000; government USD 340 000; beneficiaries USD 50 000; and OPEC loan - USD 600 000, making an overall total of USD 2.82m. Further details are given in Appendix 4, Tables 10 and 11.

Summary Physical Achievements

40. A summary of the estimates of beneficiary numbers and physical achievements against the targets set at appraisal for all of the components of KAEMP is given in Appendix 5. The key points are amplified below. In terms of overall coverage, the Project is estimated to have had a significant presence in 300 of the 540 villages of the region, that is 159% of the initial target; and to have had some impact, from one or more activities, on 190 000 households comprising over one million people and representing 111% of target.

41. Agricultural Development. In the promotion of improved seeds and planting materials, the records show that for maize and bean seeds and banana suckers, production exceeded target, for banana by a factor of five. For clonal coffee plants and cassava cuttings, achievement has been above 80% of target, the shortfall being due to market conditions for coffee and disease complications for cassava.

42. The Project is changing from direct action in seed and planting material to facilitation of support of established growers and multipliers through Seed Growers Associations (SGAs). Twenty four such associations have been formed - and 18 of them so far registered as cooperatives or groups and 14 with bank accounts - under the aegis of KAEMP. Membership is just short of 1 000, 27% of whom are women. Concise records of seeds and planting materials availability were not readily accessible. The field evidence is that farmers still rely on their own or neighbours seed for 70% of requirements.

11

However, it appeared that adequate supplies of quality declared seeds (QDS) and planting materials would be assured in most areas by SGAs, since between 150 and 1 800 farmers, depending on the crop, were already involved and most were known to be continuing in seeds and plants multiplication.

43. In improved crop management, the Project has fulfilled its targets in establishing 200 IPM/IPN farmer groups, of which 190 are still active, including several women’s specialist groups in vegetable production. The total membership of such groups, some of which are participants in an IFAD-assisted FAO farmer field school project, is estimated to be in excess of 5 000 at present, with over 30% women - and about 14% female headed households.

44. IPM/IPN techniques promoted include improved selection and treatment of planting materials; low cost methods of pest control, including use of plant-based pesticides; and simple, low cost techniques including composting, liquid organic manure, mulching and field hygiene. Apart from the 5 000 plus first hand, direct beneficiaries of IPM/IPN, it is estimated that up to 6 000 other farmers have adopted one or other of the new techniques, for the principal crops of banana, maize, beans, coffee and sweet potato. A number are also interested in the uptake of alternative crops, such as vanilla, round potato and pineapple.

45. The third element of the agricultural activity, production inputs and equipment supply, was initiated under a credit arrangement for input stockists that has proved to be unviable. To date, only 160 farmer loans from five stockists of inputs have been made. Legal action is still in train to recover outstanding loans and costs. A new credit system utilising SGAs and specialist formal banks should be operational before the end of 2002.

46. Agricultural development has been subtended by an intensive programme of training and capacity building. The latter included the provisio n of seed laboratory and soil testing equipment and facilities and the refurbishment of the Farmers Training Centre at ARDI-Maruku. Some 219 Village Extension Officers (VEOs) and other district staff have received training in Project activities. Apart from the approximately 6 000 farmers that have been trained in seeds and IPM/IPN activities, 144 SGA leaders received management skills training and 3 000 other farmers were trained in seed and planting material production technology.

47. Of great importance for enhanced agricultural productivity has been the appointment and training of the Farmer Cadre trainer/extensionists, of whom there are now over 80 posted in their local areas to supplement the work of VEOs. An FC typically has ten or more informal farmer clients in each of the 3 to 4 villages that are covered. These farmers also receive practical field training, although their numbers are difficult to estimate.

48. Since FCs are members of SGAs and/or IPM/IPN groups, their operations are closely aligned to Project activities and partly dependent on the extension impetus inculcated by the group structure that KAEMP has created. The success of the group approach has meant that the numbers achieved of formal field days (92) and farmer to farmer visits (221) fell well short of the planned 675, although 2400 farmers attended field days in 2002.

49. Environmental Management. The main emphases of the environmental management component were: afforestation; water hyacinth infestation control; institutional strengthening; and concerns of soil conservation and reduction of fuel wood demand for cooking.

50. The component has had a marked success in the promotion of interest in - and actual execution of - the communal and individual afforestation activity. A total of 3 280 acres of tree planting has been accomplished, involving more than 2.1 million trees as against a target of 1.75 million, or over 120% of target. The claimed survival rate is 78%; Mission estimates put survival/early growth rates at 50% to 80%. The majority of plantings, including those around water source catchments or in villages, are of environmentally friendly, adapted or native species, such as Caribbean pine, grevillea, aprocarpus

12

and maesopsis instead of the originally favoured eucalyptus, which is now seen as only suitable for poor land planting.

51. In the process of afforestation, 840 tree nurseries have been established, of which just under half are operated by individual specialist nurserymen and the remainder by groups, schools, prisons and other institutions. The majority of nurseries are small, producing 1 000 seedlings per year, but field work evidence is that about 50 nurseries across the districts could be serious, commercial operations, producing 3 000 to 10 000 or more plants per year.

Photo 3: Banana split sucker used to trap weevils at the base of the banana plant,

52. Uptake of wood saving stoves under the Project is estimated at 1 800 households or 52% of the target set at appraisal; and in the region as a whole, under all projects promoting fuel wood economy, at 9 900 households. Clearly the Project and the region still have a long way to go to make a meaningful impact on the fuel wood demand for cooking. The water hyacinth control programme has been responsible for release of more than 30 million weevils following 14 pre and post-release surveys as against 18 planned; and comprehensive training of operatives.

53. The main shortfall in the targeted objectives has been in district institutional strengthening, where staff numbers have not increased. In retrospect, this may turn out not to have been a major drawback, given the prospective commercialisation of the tree nursery and timber plantation enterprises and the financial stringency affecting district budgets; a more community-based and self- financing approach to natural resource management is desirable.

54. The tree planting programme has been accompanied by intensive publicity/education campaigns on the wider aspects of protection and conservation as well as afforestation, that have included poster publicity, video shows and seminars, as well as demonstration plots in which over 220 000 trees have been grown. Training has also been a major feature; this has included the on-target technical training of 26 forest department and other extension staff; nearly 3 000 farmers in nursery practice; and over 2 500 village leaders on land management and soil conservation. Local artisans were also trained to make wood saving cooking stoves.

55. Rural Infrastructure. Interventions in health were aimed at the whole population but difficulty of accessibility would have limited direct coverage to about 1.02 million people, with a bias to women and children. In equipment supply, 87 dispensary kits and 7 health centre kits were provided to Karagwe, Ngara, Bihaharamulo and Muleba districts. Unfortunately a prior needs assessment was not done at time of purchase, resulting in some duplication and unsuitable equipment, which remains unused or is proving difficult to use. This includes the provision of electrically operated equipment to health units where no power supply is available and allocation of beds and other items where the unit concerned was already well-equipped.

13

56. Intervention for malaria control was three pronged - training; supply of impregnated mosquito nets; and improved diagnosis using microscopes. About 16 600 or 62% of the targeted number of bed nets were procured of which about 60% has either been sold or issued free to health centres. Problems of poor design of some nets, delays in supplying via the regional funding system, variable uptake and questions of availability of permethrine for re-impregnation have arisen. Microscopes have been supplied in all the dispensaries and health centres, but their use has been found to depend on the availability of reagents and the time available to the clinician. Only about 10% of patients at health centres appear to be managed for malaria based on laboratory diagnosis - and probably even less at dispensaries.

57. All planned training was carried out in year one, 1998; 25, or 100% as planned, of District Health Management Team (DHMT) members were trained as trainers; 235, or 27% of the total planned health facility staff were trained in malaria control; while 708, or 29% of Village Health Workers (VHWs) - and 15 781, or only 32% of Village Health Committee (VHC) members - received trainin g in malaria. No further or refresher courses were held, due to scarcity of funds.

58. The content of training was restricted to malaria in three districts, but covered other common diseases in Ngara and Biharamulo. Training only reached its target at the district level where the training of trainers can be confidently expected to pay dividends; achievements at health provider and community level were below expectations, principally because of under-estimation of the funding required for the training courses. Coverage of villages for malaria control sensitization and mobilization varied from 15% in Muleba, a malaria prone district, to 68% in Biharamulo, thus constraining net uptake. About 70 health unit staff were trained on use of microscopes; the rationale for training such a large number of staff, many of whom are considered unlikely to be involved in microscopic diagnosis, is not clear. Traditional birth attendants (TBAs), who form a large and important group of health service providers, were not included in any training.

59. The Health Information System (HIS) is comprehensively established as an M&E tool and includes community-based information. Data on environmental sanitation, access to water, number of births and deaths based on households per village are reported quarterly. The usefulness of establishing a more elaborate M&E system, as now planned, is, from the point of view of applying it to health activities, open to doubt; the existing HIS can readily be accessed and used - or adapted - to provide any necessary health statistics.

60. Cost sharing has been introduced nationally at all levels as part of health sector reform, but has so far not been implemented consistently or effectively in Kagera. VHCs are supposed to manage cost sharing - or cost recovery from those patients that can afford it for the supply of drugs and in-patient or out-patient treatment - but perceive it as an activity of the health unit with little community ownership. VHCs do not have the requisite management and book keeping skills and so leave the decision making on revenue collections and expenditures to health staff. There are no clear mechanisms to ensure cost sharing is sustained; no clear exemption mechanisms; and in some districts the attendance of patients has decreased after the introduction of cost sharing.

61. The original appraisal estimate of the pattern of uptake of activities for the water supply sub- component was substantially modified during implementation on the evidence of need and potential, as described above. In addition, there remain major discrepancies in achievements recorded and actual numbers and types of schemes visited - or able to be validated - by the Mission. The figures of physical achievement used here are those of the Mission and refer only to Bukoba Rural, Muleba and Biharamulo.

62. The sub-component was designed with a participatory approach at village and ward level to scheme identification; technical design by district staff; and works performed by contractor or NGO. The initial participatory process of selection appears to have been successful, although the opportunity to engage communities to the full extent desirable in the process of planning, implementation and ownership of schemes appears not to have been particularly well exploited. The competence of

14

technical design is considered to have been deficient in a number of cases, with inadequate assessment of actual water yield potential; neglect of hygiene and sanitation conditions and contamination prevention or disinfection measures; and failure to make a proper calculation of the financial parameters for investment and recurrent cost feasibility. Much of the construction work seems to have been undertaken by district staff rather than by contractor; the reasons and related conditions for this are not clear, but the competence with which some works have been executed and resultant cost over- runs raise serious doubts about the efficiency and cost control associated with this method of operation.

63. The original target for chemical analysis studies was 2 880; of these, only 777 have been completed, a 27% achievement. Eighteen water technicians and 2 hydrologists were planned to be trained; in practice, 46 technicians and one hydrologist are recorded as having been trained by the PFMU, an achievement of over 230%. However, the number of individual trainings identified by the Mission from other reports is 170, with some 64 technicians on one course alone; this is a greater number than the actual cadre of water department staff in the districts, but is understood to have included other personnel that might be involved in the water quality sampling activities, as part of district capacity building.

64. Numbers and types of schemes identified by the Mission as having been completed are: rehabilitated gravity schemes - 3, or 23% of target; new gravity schemes - 1, or 14%; deep wells - 17, or 95%; shallow wells - 51, or 230%; rainwater tanks - 67, or 223%; and protected springs - 72, or 205%. Three pumped water schemes and 2 charcos dams were also constructed, although such works had been excluded at appraisal, as alluded above. The PFMU Key Indicators records show: only 31 shallow wells, 20 fewer than indicated in the district information provided to the Mission; 124 spring protection schemes, 52 more than were claimed by the districts; and an additional 4 deep bore wells, which were in progress during evaluation but are now understood to be completed. There is clearly a need for a more rigorous reconciliation of the numbers and costs of these works; this should be part of the comparative costing exercise included under recommendations at the end of this report. In addition, the Project has agreed to provide equipment and supplies for three district water analysis laboratories, which were not included at appraisal - and justification for which is considered questionable; the present laboratory in Biharamulo, supplied only a few years ago, was not operational when visited by the Mission. Given the present position where many water sources have coliform contamination and inadequate protection from pollution, provision for protection of sources and treatment of supplies should have greater priority.

65. The final thrust of the sub-component was the training and orientation of Village Water Users Group (VWUG) members. Records show that 1 050 people have benefited from this training. However, field work findings suggest that cost contributions prior to construction of schemes and cost sharing for operation and maintenance were minimal - and the administrative and management capability of groups and committees is rudimentary at best.

66. Implementation of the rural roads sub-component was managed on a similar basis to that for water supply, in terms of participatory selection of sites, but again - because of the formalities of the tendering and contracting processes entailed - without the further involvement of communities in planning, contract tendering and implementation that might have engendered a more responsible attitude to the responsibility and tasks of subsequent operation, maintenance and repair of local roads. Nevertheless, there was a measure of representation of communities through the presence of local councillors on the District Tender Board. Construction was by contract and the regional roads authorities pla yed the major role and took the key decisions in subsequent stages of the work; survey, design and supervision were by consultants; and there was proper adherence to design parameters and commercial tendering and contracting processes. Karagwe and Ngara were excluded from roads activities, although a small amount of work has been done in Karagwe as the Project nears completion.

67. The fundamental rationale for roads inputs was based on improving wet season access to remote areas and supporting both agricultural development and human well-being with easier access to

15

markets, social services and amenities. The OPEC loan funded the rehabilitation of regional roads and the target total of 124 km was completed satisfactorily in 2001 by four contractors under five separate contracts.

68. The village access roads works included an element of minor works such as culverts and bridges and were accomplished by a mixture of mechanised and labour based technologies. The works cover 346 km with three separate contract packages for each of the districts and about 95% achieved at this juncture, pending remedial/completion works on one 13 km section in Muleba where the contract was terminated due to machinery breakdown and delay. The standard of work has been generally satisfactory and the completion on time and within budget limits of such an intensive programme of works, with substantive peripheral benefits to local people in casual employment and income earning services, and to local contractors in the upgrading of their skills, is a commendable achievement. However, the out-sourcing of culvert making proved ineffective; and there are some reservations about the design and finish of drainage channels and gravel surfacing in several cases.

69. The sub-component also included provision for training of roads engineers - 4; Village Roads Committee members - 456; and village youths, in roads maintenance and repair - 760. All of this training has been done, but the further training of roads technicians by the engineers does not appear to have been undertaken. In addition, the effectiveness of training and orientation of the VRCs and groups responsible for repair and maintenance has yet to be proven; the perception of local people in a number of cases encountered by the Missio n is that they should be paid for the work involved.

70. The Project facilitation, monitoring and evaluation component principally comprises the overall coordination, accounting and reporting of activities as well as the provision of vehicles, equipment, salarial and operating costs for regional and selected - and reducing numbers of - district staff. Related procurement, contract tendering and funds provision exercises have been fulfilled to target. Staff appointment for the regional and district facilitation posts was completed in 1997 and the majority of procurement was done in 1998.

71. Progress on capacity building for districts, beyond the sectoral training and project experience discussed above, has been less clearly marked than expected. The M&E system has been in a process of nearly continual change in response to Supervision and Mid-term Review recommendations and to the introduction of a new government-wide system under the Local Government Reform Programme. Nevertheless, the rudiments of a physical recording and management information provision have been maintained, primarily by the PFMU and DPFUs and specifically District Monitoring and Evaluation Officers (DMEOs) appointed only in 2001 at the behest of the mid-term review. DPFUs have work programme charts based on the nine key outputs and supporting activities of the revised Project logical framework and district quarterly reports follow a similar format. However, the quarterly report table that summarises physical and financial targets against the annual work plan and budget (AWPB) is under revision and currently not in use.

72. The baseline survey was undertaken on time; but only one regional review workshop and ten district review workshops have been held, instead of the six and thirty planned, achievements of 17% and 33% respectively. Only two, instead of the planned six impact monitoring studies have been undertaken; the first, in 1998/99 was premature; and the second, in 2002, confined to only one village and lacked participation in defining the indicators used. M&E training was provided, as planned, to Project staff, but in fact took place only in 2002; training in participatory rural appraisal (PRA) for some 65 staff had taken place earlier and PRA studies have now been completed in 44 villages. Refinement of the M&E system, which is geared to assessing Project performance rather than impact, goes on, but the quandary persists of: an over-ambitious and complex system; limited competence and resources at districts to carry out the work; and absence of real participatory input.

73. Training in the use of the logical framework approach for 20 staff was done in 2001. Since then the concept and practical use of the logical framework for planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation have been demonstrated and applied within the districts and in seven pilot villages. The

16

approach is promising; communities have expressed their appreciation of the way in which it has been presented and the help that it affords in their thinking about development. However, practical use still depends on the presence of Project staff or advisers, to guide participants through - and enable them to understand - the process; and there is a long way to go, including the probable need to re-design and simplify both the format and the process for filling it up, before the logical framework becomes a usable tool for management or monitoring and evaluation.

74. Gender issues were not explicitly or fully taken into account in Project planning and design, but KAEMP has succeeded to a degree in enhancing the participation of women, despite not yet challenging prevailing patriarchal values and traditional gender relations. The Project estimate is that women comprise 37% of IPM/IPN group participants, 14% of them being female heads of household, and overall nearly half of all beneficiaries. Notable, if not fully quantified achievements include: access of women to extension advice, inputs and knowledge of farm practices; participation of several women - and specialist women’s groups - in community development, income earning enterprises and leadership positions; and limited amelioration of the burdens of fuel wood and water collection and health services access.

75. Further gender mainstreaming has been instigated and supported by an IFAD grant in February 2002, under the Gender Strengthening Programme for Eastern and Southern Africa. The practical manifestation of this input so far has been: training in gender awareness and approaches of 70 Project staff - 51 men and 19 women; appointment of three gender focal point personnel in each district; training of some 200 village leaders and 22 womens group, SGA and roads committee members; and the start of a programme of dissemination of gender related messages to villages and communities through the Project.

17

III. RURAL POVERTY IMPACT

A. Introduction

76. As alluded above, the status of the rural poor in Kagera was primarily attributed to remoteness from main roads and markets; lack of inputs and services; low prices for cash crops; inadequate access to safe water and fuel wood; and lack of transport. These problems had been exacerbated at the time of Project design by the major refugee influx and its consequent effects. The refugee population has declined, although there are still significant numbers of people in camps in Karagwe, Ngara and Biharamulo, as well as additional recent arrivals from Burundi - and a number of returnees also from Rwanda. However, since they are properly settled and provided with facilities and services, their impact on the local population and its resources is lessened - and there is still no shortage of reasonably productive land in Kagera for more than 90 percent of the population that are small, subsistence farmers.

77. It is a measure of its original depth and severity that poverty continues to prevail in the Project districts. The combination of large household size and persistent high population increase; absolute scarcity of money within a family; the dispersed and still remote pattern of settlement; and the ravages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is a difficult mix of deprivation factors to combat. What KAEMP has done is to address several of the key causative factors directly, making an impact in respect of some of these, but more important, to point the way - and lay the groundwork - for further action to be taken towards poverty eradication.

78. Rural poverty impact needs to be measured: in extent - the size in terms of numbers of people affected; in degree - the significance of the change for the better in circumstances involved; and in type - the characteristics of the effects that have been wrought, whether tangible or not. For KAEMP, with six main components or sub-components that each has different potential for benefit and that impinge differently on beneficiary households, it is considered desirable to distinguish between two categories of outcome. These are: the first hand, direct beneficiaries and benefits, for instance the seed contract farmers and SGA members, who have had both financial assistance and intensive technical support over several years; and the secondary or indirect beneficiaries and benefits, for example the new clients of Farmer Cadres that have had only recent advice but who are part of the trickle -down effect.

79. In the absence of comprehensive and systematic M&E records of impact, reliance is placed on data: from Project Progress Status Reports and the two monitoring surveys; from recent, secondary sources on the socio-economic status in Kagera, such as the Household Budget Survey of 2001; from Mission field work interviews and district discussions; and from the analysis of the IFAD Evaluation Framework matrix, the composite summary version of which is presented as Appendix 3.

80. The best evidence of improvement in regional poverty status comes from the Household Budget Survey data. Between the 1991/92 and 2000/01 surveys in Kagera, the share of the population below the food poverty line has declined from 22.6% to 18%; and that below the overall basic needs poverty line, from 41.5% to 29%; the latter figure compares with the national level of basic needs poverty of 36%. The latest Survey puts the median annual per capita rural household income at TZS 801 000 (USD 809) and the mean annual per capita consumption expenditure at TZS 756 000 (USD 763), indicating the precarious balance between resources and needs of small farm families.

81. The Survey data also suggest that income inequalities, as measured by the Gini coefficient, have worsened slightly over the decade. Several of the main factors of human development have also changed little: only 13% of houses have modern walls and 2% have mains electricity; only 31% of households have improved water sources; and other data indicate that life expectancy languishes at 45 years, maternal mortality at 228 per hundred thousand and infant mortality at 127 per thousand, 33% higher than the national average.

18

B. Impact on Physical and Financial Assets

82. The major and most direct sources of impact on the physical and financial assets of Project area households - and the standards and sustainability of their livelihoods - were the production-oriented components of agricultural development and environmental management, with the rural roads component playing a less direct but crucial supporting role. The impact on physical and financial assets has been positive, the main sources of improvement having been:

· increased farm productivity leading to food self-sufficiency and therefore the availability of surplus food crops, as well as increased cash crop produce, for sale - and resultant higher household incomes and ability to invest;

· establishment of tree nurseries as a source of plants and of income for the operators - and instigation of tree planting as a resource protection measure, but also as a significant income generating enterprise and venture in asset accumulation, related not only to trees but to the occupation of village rweya land for planting; and

· rehabilitation or construction of regional and village access roads that have facilitated market access, availability of inputs and materials, increased farmer to farmer and trader to farmer to buyer contacts, as well as vendoring/petty trading potential; this benefit would have been even more marked had there been earlier recognition of the need for intervention on the marketing as well as the production front in agriculture.

83. The gains in productivity, output, incomes and asset improvement are founded on:

· the introduction of sound, farmer friendly, no-cost or low cost technologies and husbandry practices - such as IPM/IPN methods, improved seeds and planting materials produced and distributed at farm level, and promotion and support for alternative crops;

· inculcation of innovative extension methods - IPM/IPN and other groups, SGAs, Farmer Cadre extensionists and farmer field schools - that have ensured wide coverage and strong adoption of Project activities and a measurable and cost-effective trickle -down effect;

· widespread sensitization and training of farmers, village leaders, communities and especially schools on the economic potential - as well as environmental importance - of tree planting; and

· underpinning of productive, income generating processes by improved road access.

84. The first hand, direct beneficiaries that have derived substantive physical and financial asset benefits from all or most of the agricultural development activities are estimated to comprise 6 500 households; those with lesser, but still meaningful secondary or indirect benefits are estimated to include an additional 15 000 households. The figures for first hand and secondary beneficiaries from environmental management activities are estimated: at 2 400 and 20 000 households respectively; the latter number includes families that may have benefited from water hyacinth control and use of wood saving stoves. Roads beneficiaries, whose benefits are more tenuous, are estimated at 35 000 and 100 000 respectively.

85. In order to estimate the quantum of benefits and wider farm and household impact, the Mission set up models to illustrate the effects of the principal farming and environmental interventions; and to enable the later projection of the overall Project rate of return. The basic information for the models comes from field work interviews with actual beneficiaries of interventions, supplemented by discussions with technical staff at district and PFMU level. The aim has been to describe typical and simplified scenarios of benefit, using farm household or enterprise partial budgets, before and after

19

Project. In compiling the models, estimates of yield increases and changes in costs have been kept at conservative levels; prices are all in constant 2002 terms; no acreage expansion has been included; sources of food and income from livestock or non-farm activities - and peripheral livelihood benefits from infrastructure activities - have been ignored.

86. The two farms modelled are: Upland, High/Medium Rainfall, Perennial Crops System, based on banana/coffee/beans intercropping and 2.5 acres of cropped land; and Lowland, Medium/Low Rainfall, Annual Crops System, based on maize, beans, cassava and cotton and 5 acres of cropped land. The patterns of cropping are designed to be representative of the broad range of agricultural activity in the region for a standard household of seven people. The forestry models are for: a Commercial Tree Nursery for 10 000 plants per year using hired labour; and a Commercial Tree Plantation of 1 acre, using hired and family labour; such enterprises might be operated either in conjunction with a small farm or separately. The results are illustrated in the farm household and enterprise models shown in Appendix 2, Tables 2a, 2b, 3a and 3b and are summarised in Table 3 below.

Table 3 Farm, Household and Enterprise Models Results Summary

Without Project USD With Project USD Incremental % Model Net Return to Net Return to Net Return to Category Margin Family Margin Family Margin Family Labour Labour Labour Upland Perennial Crops System 334 0.76 592 1.05 77 37 Lowland Annual Crops System 420 0.70 609 0.88 45 25

Tree Nursery na 220 2.20 na Peak Break- Financial Investment even Year IRR % Tree Plantation na na 731 12 18

87. The positive changes in the physical and financial asset position of beneficiary households is manifested primarily in: ownership or rights of use of additional land; tree nurseries and tree plantations; livestock - especially cattle rather than just chickens or goats; better housing, ranging from corrugated steel sheet roofs rather than thatch to new, brick built rather than mud houses; reduced indebtedness; ability to pay school fees and buy shoes and better clothes; and ownership of proper furniture, household utensils, farm tools, bicycles, and radio sets. Possibly about 30% of the first hand beneficiaries under agriculture and environment would be enjoying more than one of these livelihood gains.

88. The principal shortcomings or dangers for the agricultural and environmental components in respect of the physical and financial asset position of farm households include:

· failure of the original input supply credit scheme for stockists; fewer than 200 farmers have been able to access inputs and equipment and the scheme was rendered unviable by repayment default and delay; the fact that the benefits described have been obtained despite this weakness strongly suggest that the key need of the farmer was for practical information and sustained technical support - rather than for inputs and credit;

· reliance, for the gains achieved, on subsidisation of inputs, defrayal of costs and the heavy resource deployment of funds, personnel and expertise, vehicles and equipment by KAEMP

20

in the early stages of implementation; this approach has now been modified, but it raises questions of replicability and post-Project sustainability, given the limited resources available to villages and districts to support farm and natural resource development in future;

· variability of the standard of tree plantation management observed - and uncertainty of avoidance of risks, such as droughts and bush fires, for tree survival; and

· dependence for the maintenance, repair and hence the longer term condition of roads on: local self-help by village people in roads committees that are not yet properly trained and equipped and reluctant to work without pay; and on a limited district share of the Road Fund.

89. The contribution of the Project to the increase in physical and financial assets is assessed as substantial, 3 on an ascending scale of 1 to 4.

C. Impact on Human Assets

90. The major elements of the impact on human assets are those related to well-being, that is: health, disease avoidance and longevity; nutritional status; access to safe, potable water; education, literacy and level of knowledge; occupational skills and capability; burden of work load; and attitudinal traits of confidence, optimism and trust. There have been some positive effects on the human asset predicament of beneficiary households, but not all components and activities have enhanced human assets to the extent desired.

91. Agricultural development and environmental management contributed to both adequacy of basic food supply and availability of family income, the two key determinants of nutritio n and accessibility and affordability of health and education services. The other sub-components that directly affect these matters are health and water supply; for these, the performance of Project interventions has been inadequate. Once again, roads played an important supporting role in achieving human asset appreciation.

92. In the event, the expected linkage and complementarity between the agricultural activity in producing sufficient food and the nutritional status of children is not demonstrated by the available records. Child nutrition status has not changed significantly, despite minor up and down movements of numbers affected in Ngara and Muleba. This is thought to indicate that either the additional food is not being consumed in sufficient quantity or that the overall dietary quality is still deficient.

93. For the other activities of the health component which were expected to result in reduced incidence and severity of malaria, peri-natal complications and mortality and other common diseases - that is the training of staff, supply of mosquito nets and provision of medical equipment and supplies - the evidence of positive impact is not yet conclusive. Only a small proportion of malaria cases rely on microscopic and laboratory analysis for treatment and the use of delivery beds and equipment varies from centre to centre but appears to be quite limited overall. In theory improved services should have been available to over one million Photo 4: Kagera river showing hyacinth reinfestation, Ngara District Source: IFAD Mission 2002 21

people in Project-assisted facilities; the available records indicate that some 900 000 patients, or 150 000 families, of whom over 60 000 households would have been afflicted by malaria, could have been affected through better treatment by the interventions made.

94. Nor, despite some encouraging trends, is there as yet evidence of decline in the incidence or severity of water-borne diseases, such as diarrhoea and skin and eye infections, despite the intervention in water supply. The other features of the impact of this component in human terms were anticipated to encompass a reduced work burden in terms of time and distance for women and children in water collection and better assurance of safe and clean supplies.

95. The best estimates of the Mission are that 61 000 people or about 10 000 households are within the coverage of all of the water schemes improved. Since many of these, such as protected springs and shallow and ring wells did not entail easier accessibility or a reduction in distance and time for collection, alleviation of the burden of work for women and children has probably been quite limited. In addition, because a majority of both existing and new sources have been found on analysis of water quality to be contaminated, the actual number of beneficiaries for safe and clean water may be less than the figure quoted in Project reports, which put the estimate of direct beneficiaries at 98 000. Thus the status of human assets in terms of health, improvement of water supply and reduced work burden is considered to have changed only marginally under Project influence.

96. There have however, been benefits in access to primary education. These are largely as a result of a change in government policy to universal free primary education, but with additional impetus provided by the Project effects in terms of the availability of family funds for school attendance costs other than fees.

97. Probably the major change for the better in the human development, asset position has been the impact of the Project in providing the necessary information to uplift the level of knowledge and skills of participants in progressive and economic farming and natural resource conservation. The way in which new techniques, systems and approaches promoted by the Project have been evolved in line with farmer needs and capabilities; field tested; introduced through farmer partnership; and then supported - technically and managerially - on the group principle, is exemplary.

98. The resulting impact on human assets arises not only from inculcating understanding and competence in the practical aspects of farming and managing natural resources better; but, consequentially, from instilling positive, confident and self-reliant attitudes among farmers in place of the previous tendency to dependence. The evidence of the change in human assets is seen in: the competence and discipline with which most Project interventions have been taken up, practised and disseminated; the level of participation and interest in new developments; the success of the Farmer Cadre system; the ability of men and women farmers to present themselves and their views, increasingly in a social and political as well as a technical context; the coherence and prospective resilience of the group structure; the preponderance among participants of farm record keeping and accounting and overall business capability; and the enthusiasm for greater and faster change.

99. A similar, but as yet only rudimentary change in understanding, skills and attitudes is being wrought among the members of local councils and representative bodies such as villa ge health, roads and development committees; and among the staff of the formal district, ward and village institutions. The personnel concerned have been given first hand experience of realistic planning and provided, possibly for the first time, with resources to enable their plans to be put into effect. All of the individual components have played a part in this, with the Project facilitation, monitoring and evaluation component as the lead contributor. The upgrading of the human assets of these other stakeholders is an important gain, particularly for the future, when their abilities to apply their skills in ensuring the sustainability of present achievements and the progress of further development are likely to be tested in more rigorous conditions than those that have prevailed under the Project.

22

100. The contribution of the Project to the increase in human assets in terms of direct health benefits is modest, 2; and that of water supply effects is assessed as minimal, 1; for the imparting of skills, knowledge and self-confidence, as described, and the indirect effects on improved human assets from increased food sufficiency and incomes, the contribution is substantial, 3, on the 1 to 4 scale.

D. Impact on Social Capital and Empowerment

101. The Project has had a meaningful impact on social capital formation and peoples empowerment, despite a weakness in the original design in specifying the mechanisms for it to do so. The impact is judged to have emanated partly from the demand driven and group approach adopted in the later years of implementation; and partly to have emerged as a knock-on effect of the uplift of financial and human assets noted above. It is also seen to have benefited from the manner in which the Project delivered tangible results for participating individuals and communities within a short time - and therefore fulfilled early expectations.

102. To the extent that they employed the same approach, all components have added something to the social capital and empowerment achievement. However, the main thrusts have come from the formation and support of the IPM/IPN groups and SGAs under agricultural development; and to a lesser extent from the environmental interventions with village and community groups, schools and other institutions. The health, water supply and roads sub-components have also each contributed to a degree through the formation, training and support of the respective committees for the management of their services and operations, although the competence and conviction of these entities is yet to be proven.

103. The 24 SGAs and 190 IPM/IPN groups, although formed under Project initiatives, are apparently well grounded at the village level as genuine grass roots level organisations. There are now several cross-linkages and shared memberships between SGAs and groups and both the elective and executive formal agencies of local government. The SGAs and groups are acting as instruments of peoples empowerment inasmuch as there is evidence that they are emerging as advocates and advisers on change across a wider range than just agriculture and environment and thus contribute to building social capital at the village and ward level. They also form a ready source of information and guidance - and potential executing agencies - for other rural development initiatives. The majority of SGAs have now become registered as corporate bodies with the associated formal administrative framework and bank accounts and hold regular meetings to discuss issues of operation and management of their organisations.

104. Another major facet of the impact on social cohesion is the manner in which the beneficiary population - especially the Farmer Cadres - have extended the IPM/IPN and seeds/planting material innovations to other individual households, projects, NGOs and communities in neighbouring villages. Evidence of these developments is largely qualitative and circumstantial, but is corroborated from sources outside the influence of the Project.

105. If there are weaknesses in the social capital development and empowerment aspects, they arise from the limited degree of impact, so far, in the advancement of gender equity and in marketing improvement.

106. Gender Aspects. Despite the presence of reasonable numbers of women in groups and SGAs; the occupancy by women of some of the senior officer or leadership positions of some organisations; and Project support for five active and progressive exclusive womens groups, the overall appreciation and application of gender sensitive policies and actions has been modest. It certainly has not changed much the gender equity balance in the Project area.

107. Women are major players in crop and livestock production activities, as well as the prime household managers and family carers, but the status that they are accorded and the consideration that they are given in society - and in the Project - do not fairly reflect their functions and contributions.

23

The prevailing social norms regarding women’s roles, expectations and responsibilities present a formidable constraint to women’s development and empowerment; the status of women is unlikely to improve until these norms change fundamentally. The recent focus of KAEMP in more determined and specific efforts to address gender issues and impart an appreciation of gender issues to distric t, ward and village cadres will be important for improved planning in Kagera and for future projects in Tanzania.

108. Marketing Issues. The issues of produce marketing have taken on greater urgency and importance as the productivity of farms has improved. Once past the threshold of family food self- sufficiency, the farmer is faced with not only the already existing quandary of disposal at remunerative prices of traditional cash crops in difficult world market conditions; but the new dilemma of optimising returns from sale of surplus staple food crops. These problems were not fully appreciated at appraisal; and KAEMP was not equipped - or, during implementation, alerted to the need - to find solutions for them.

109. Producers in some districts have been able to dis pose of produce with reasonable ease and acceptable prices during the refugee presence or because of proximity to roads and/or towns. For others, outputs of bananas, beans and maize may exceed local demand and storage and/or transportation to adjacent regions with buoyant demand is difficult. Marketing assistance and arrangement of grower/buyer contacts is now a high priority.

110. The impact of the Project on social capital and people empowerment in the round is assessed as substantial, 3.

E. Impact on Food Security

111. A major transformation has been engendered by adoption of new technologies and practices under IPM/IPN, the more plentiful supply of improved crop seeds and planting materials and the cooperation among farmers under group and SGA arrangements. It has significantly lifted crop yields and outputs and typically has moved adopting poorer, small farm families from a position of food insecurity for the final quarter of the year - from September to December - to a state of food self- sufficiency in most years.

112. The levels of yield increase for the main staple food crops that were predicted at appraisal ranged from 25% to 50%. The yield increases that are estimated to have been attained by adopters are of over 100% for banana, 50% to 60% for beans; 30 to 70% for maize; and 40% to 60% for cassava. These yield increments lead to a significant increase in staple food crops output for the typical family, lifting them above the food needs threshold, as set out in Tables 2a and 2b of Appendix 2. The results can be summarised as follows:

· the aggregate family food demand for self-sufficiency is calculated as: 6 000 kg of banana; 480 kg of grains/pulses; and 1 200 kg of root crops, mostly cassava and sweet potato;

· for the Upland, Perennial Crops system household, the without project case shows it to be in marginal surplus overall, but with a root crops deficit of 150 kg; the with project case shows it with a substantial surplus, with 12 000 kg of banana and 720 kg of grains/pulses available for sale; and

· for the Lowland, Annual Crops system household, the without project case shows it to be in serious deficit overall, with a banana shortfall of 4 200 kg and a deficit for all bulky foods of about 3 000 kg; the with project case shows it with a marginal surplus in aggregate, although still short of banana supply, and 240 kg of grains/pulses available for sale.

113. As in most farming situations, improvements in yields are the beginning of what might be termed a virtuous cycle of benefit, whereby when surplus outputs are encashed, a share of the

24

increased revenue is used to purchase more and better inputs, tools and equipment, whose use leads on to the possibility of partial double cropping and even higher subsequent yields and more - and more secure - income. There is some evidence from Project impact assessment studies that this phenomenon has begun to occur in KAEMP and that many members of the target group population have been lifted above the food self-sufficiency threshold.

114. Although this is a meaningful and important improvement, it is also recognised that it does not guarantee complete food security for households. The impact of drought has been felt in parts of Kagera for up to five months in 2002, and the consequences of the El Nino/La Nina effects in recent years are still a vivid memory. What can be said is that the resilience of the family from the food security viewpoint has been greatly strengthened by the Project.

115. There is a scarcity of non-farm employment in the Project area generally. With the exception of a large sugar estate, some commercial-scale fishing enterprises, a coffee factory and local government service, the great majority of employment is in small trading and artisan businesses, such as transport and building, and much of the demand is seasonal. In these circumstances, off-farm employment can be of crucial value to the balance of the household budget for the target group. The common occurrence is that one or more members of the poorer families will from time to time pursue a second occupation.

116. Such occupations range from the collection and selling of fuel wood, pit sawing of timber, charcoal making and trading to wage labour in the building or fishing sectors. Additional on-farm pursuits, such as petty trading of surplus produce and brewing of local beer or spirit from banana are also common and serve to diversify and augment household income. The Project, with its instigation of increased output of produce and the rehabilitation or construction of roads has had a beneficial effect in this regard, but probably only for a small proportion of participants. The most obvious example is the proliferation of small kiosks, offering a range of local produce, other foods and household requisites and services at the sides and the junctions of renovated roads.

117. The impact of the Project on food security overall is categorised as substantial, 3.

F. Environmental Impact

118. The impact of KAEMP on the environment and common resource base in those areas where the Project has been most active has, on balance, been positive. However, the severity of the original state of land and vegetation degradation and the continuing profligate cultivation of erosion-prone lands and the periodic burning of the bush mean that much remains to be done in terms of overall coverage and ensuring the sensible utilisation and conservation of those resources. The Project has so far engaged few Village Governments and local communities in genuine community-based natural resource management, which is probably a necessity for future sustainability; and only limited attention has been paid to wider application of soil conservation measures and agro-forestry.

119. The effort in water hyacinth control has reportedly been effective, diminution of infestation from Project and other interventions having been assessed at over 70% in the lake, a strong positive environmental impact. The problem of continuing renewal of infestation from the Rwandese sector of the Kagera catchment is being addressed by discussion with the Rwanda authorities; and by the better and further cooperation with the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project, whose additional weevil breeding and distribution facilities should ensure a permanent reversal of the pollution danger beyond Project closure.

120. The main manifestations of the environmental impact are the tree nurseries and woodlots that dot the countryside of Kagera. Signals of their continuation and growth are their likely commercial viability as enterprises and investments; and the sense of awareness and communal responsibility that has been instilled among the younger generation in schools and to a lesser extent among local leaders and village and ward office bearers.

25

121. The environmental impact is classified, for the present, as modest, 2.

G. Impact on Institutions, Policies and Regulatory Framework

122. The Project has worked through the established organs of district governance in the form of Councils and Administrations and their various committees and technical departments, as well as local NGOs and private sector contractors, suppliers and service providers. In the process, it has instilled a considerable amount of orientation and training in development planning, management, monitoring and evaluation and provided much hands-on experience of project implementation. The principal manifestations are: the improved awareness of district, ward and village officials of development issues and opportunities and an enhanced capability for realistic planning and budgeting; the increased effectiveness of the extension service in technology transfer and advisory back-up to farmers and groups; and the recent introduction of the use of the PRA and logical framework as a basis for local planning and development management. It would be wrong to see this as an accomplished task: further orientation, reform and support is needed.

123. There has been little change in rural financial institutions, but the formation of groups and SGAs has been a positive development; and the current formulation of more viable micro-credit arrangements will eventually add to this impact. For the main public institutions and the service provision role the Project has provided means and support for their activation as reasonably effective organs in the relevant geographic and subject matter areas covered. Some general spin-off benefits have also accrued to other entities and departments not directly implicated in Project activities, but these are not readily identifiable or quantifiable.

124. The national and sectoral policy environment and the regulatory framework for development have been changing markedly in Tanzania prior to - and during - the Project period, as described earlier. However, KAEMP itself has not played a major part in the evolution of the new policies and regulations, except perhaps to illustrate their importance and the practicability of their application. This, itself, might be thought a useful contribution; and the zero or low cost methods of improved crop production; the group and Farmer Cadre approach to information dissemination; and the systems of natural resources conservation through tree planting and hyacinth control might well form the basis of new policies and regulations that would be applicable in many other parts of Tanzania.

125. The Project impact on institutions and services is classified as modest, 2; its impact on policy and regulations was not considered applicable and not assessed.

H. Sustainability

126. The sustainability of Project gains will be determined by two main factors. On the positive side are the impacts that have already been achieved and the supporting expertise, structures and arrangements that KAEMP has put in place; and the determination of government through local governance reform to continue to strengthen the development process. On the negative side are the realities of a dependency syndrome that has not yet been eradicated; the stringency of regional and district budgets and overall scarcity of resources; and the limits so far attained of genuine participation and influence of communities in the political and development processes.

127. The Project has:

· proved and applied technologies and approaches to improve farm productivity and natural resources conservation that are eminently valid technically and economically;

· developed group structures for agricultural improvement that appear sound - and are emerging as important local development and advocacy entities;

26

· oriented, trained and given experience to the staff, office bearers, members and farmer/community clients of groups, SGAs, departments, village and ward committees; and

· utilised, demonstrated and encouraged the use of improved systems of planning, budgeting, management, monitoring and accounting of district affairs.

128. All of these internal characteristics and outcomes are acknowledged strengths that will contribute to the sustainability of Project benefits, if not of all the activities, in future.

129. On the other hand:

· notwithstanding their very recent establishment, the conviction of responsibility and capability of water users groups and roads committees to perform operation, maintenance and repair functions are as yet unconvincing;

· the cost sharing mechanisms introduced for water supply and health service provision are a key element of future sustainability, but early indications are that these are not yet being properly and consistently applied - or, in general, respected by beneficiaries;

· the monitoring and evaluation and planning systems that have been promoted, including the use of the logical framework, are not proving to be user-friendly and require further simplification and/or substantial additional training and technical support; and

· the dedication and enthusiasm of technical support staff - and participating farmers and officials - may not be maintained when the availability of vehicles, operating costs and allowances are not as assured as they have been during KAEMP.

130. It is recognised that there is a serious intent on the part of Central Government to facilitate the economic autonomy and self-reliance of regional administrations and local governments and that increasing fiscal allocations will be devoted to this purpose. However, the demand for improved amenities and services throughout the country is such, as past history shows, as to preclude significant fulfilment in the foreseeable future. The total available funding from Central Government allocations and from local and regional revenue sources are traditionally far below planned expenditures. In the consequent and inevitable prioritisation of district expenditures, the massive demands of education, health and salarial costs mean that operation, maintenance and development activities are often under- resourced. 131. Sustainability will also be a function of the external conditions: of climatic favourability or adversity, as witness the drought or flooding effects already referred to above; and of the local, regional and international market demand and prices for Kagera products. These cannot be accurately forecast but prudence dictates that predictions of sustainability should be moderated to account for their influence.

132. On balance, sustainability of Project activities and benefits is assessed as modest, 2.

I. Innovation and Replicability

133. Although KAEMP was founded on the preceding, limited refugee emergency assistance projects of IFAD and BSF, among others - and drew on the approach and technical content of KCDP, DRDP and the GTZ-IPM Shinyanga projects - it had a strong element of innovation in its agricultural and environmental interventions. Its mode of implementation through the decentralised district and local government system - and making optimal use of other institutions, NGOs and private sector contractors - was also a pioneering approach for Kagera. This was less the case in the infrastructure component, where the Project followed the accepted practices of previous health, water supply and roads projects, albeit that some of them had already had results of dubious impact and sustainability.

27

134. The key innovative aspects of the farming improvement activities were their low cost, farmer- and environment-friendly techniques - such as the use of natural, botanical extracts as pesticides; composting and admixture of farmyard manures as fertilisers; hot water treatment to de-infest planting material; farmer grown and selected seeds; and introduction of appropriate alternative crops, such as vanilla and pineapple. In extension, the strong reliance on group activities, farmer to farmer dissemination of information and ideas, encouragement of farm record keeping and farm business management and the instigation of the Farmer Cadre system are thought likely to be enduring facets of any viable future advisory system.

135. In environment, the use of schools and other institutions and the encouragement of quasi- commercial practices among participating individual farmers from the outset were new, albeit that a more communal approach could have increased prospective sustainability. The incorporation of Project activities in the distric t development plan; the introduction of participatory consultation with communities and the logical framework approach for planning; and execution as far as practicable through district agencies, while not entirely new, served to take the devolution process of local government reform at least a step forward.

136. The ratings for innovation and potential replicability of Project approaches and activities are estimated to be substantial, that is 3, for agriculture, environment and project facilitation, but at best, modest or 2, for the infrastructure component. The actual replication is at present modest, a score of 2.

J. Overall Impact Assessment

137. The Project has met - or got close to - most of the targets that were set at appraisal or expounded at mid-term when the logical framework matrix was revised. Although certain of the main beneficiaries of the original contract farmer approach and many of the beneficiaries of the environment and infrastructure components will inevitably not have been confined to the poorest of the poor, it is clear that a marked level of trickle -down to even the smaller and worst-off farm households of the target group has been achieved.

138. There has also been significant impact on a representative cross section of the regional population, of whom the great majority subsist below the poverty line; and among whom are commendable proportions of women and female headed households.

139. KAEMP has not been notably successful in its health and water supply sub-components and the resilience of the village roads improvements is not assured. However, what it has done is lay the technical foundation, establish the communal structure and demonstrate the practicability for future rural and district development in Kagera - and probably further afield.

140. The overall impact of the project is assessed as between 2 and 3.

28

IV. PERFORMANCE OF THE PROJECT

A. Relevance of Objectives

141. Whole Project. The goal at appraisal was defined as: to rehabilitate the region following the adverse effects of refugee encroachment and reverse the long term decline in agricultural production. This was later revised in the amended logical framework to read: the living standard of the people in Kagera Region significantly increased. Either of these interpretations of the overall development needs of Kagera is considered valid, the difference reflecting the change in the urgency and severity of the refugee problem as a factor in regional development status. The living standards of the Kagera population are crucially dependent upon agricultural productivity, since a predominant - estimated 85% - proportion of the population is made up of small, primarily subsistence farm families for whom food sufficiency and farm income are key drivers of household livelihood and welfare. Thus the relevance of the goal or overall objective of the Project was - and is - high, 4.

142. Agricultural Development. The specific objective of the agricultural development component was stated as to improve household food production and incomes in a sustainable manner. The supporting subsidiary objectives focus on provision of improved seeds and planting materials; inputs and equipment supply; and improved crop management via IPM/IPN technologies. These objectives were particularly apposite to the predic ament of farms at appraisal, not least because they imply cost- limited but technically proven answers to the problem of declining productivity. They continue to be germaine, albeit that if supply of inputs were to include inorganic fertilisers and expensive agro- chemicals, economic benefits to the farmer might be dubious. The relevance of the agricultural development objectives is assessed as high, 4.

143. Environmental Management. The specific objective of the environmental management component was defined at appraisal as: to support the process of improving environmental management through tree planting and water hyacinth control. This statement is less a proper objective than a rather vague description of several possible activities. The desired output for the component set out in the revised logical framework - participatory natural resource management approach effectively promoted - while also too wide, at least provided a plausible target, but one that has so far only been partly met. The main subsidiary objectives of supporting communal and individual afforestation through tree seedling production and tree planting; control of water pollution by water hyacinth growth; and promotion of wood saving stoves are considered valid, the proposed backing for the appointment of many more district forestry staff, less so. On balance, the relevance of environmental management objectives is put at substantial, 3.

144. Rural Infrastructure. The overall objective of the rural infrastructure component was set out at appraisal as: to improve access to safe drinking water supplies, health facilities and road access to villages thereby supporting the investment in agricultural production and natural resource management. This again rather vague statement of intent was refined in the new logical framework to form a series of outputs specific to the sub-components, as recounted below.

145. Health. The output for the health sub-component in the revised logical framework was stated as: health service delivery improved. This is a similarly vague definition for a sub-component the primary content of which was equipment supply oriented to malaria control and perinatal, mother and child health care; and in which the provision for community mobilisation and sensitisation was minimal and the provision for - and scope of - training was limited. The implied main aims of the health sub-component - to reduce malaria incidence and severity; maternal and infant mortality and morbidity; and child malnutrition - are all highly relevant to the Kagera situation. However, the relevance of the objectives as stated - and in the context of the severity of the diverse problems of health service provision and the need for far more intensive community sensitisation and involvement, is assessed as modest, 2.

29

146. Water Supply. The stated desired output for the water supply sub-component was: farmers access to safe drinking water improved. The implied aim was to increase the accessibility and quality of domestic water supply to target group households. The appraisal correctly identified the key factors to achieve this aim as: renovation or construction of low cost schemes; and enhancement of institutional capacity for their management at district and village level. The relevance of these objectives, then, as now, is high, 4.

147. Rural Roads. The output for this sub-component was: the network for rural access and main roads enhanced. At appraisal, the implied objectives were rather more detailed, viz: to improve village access roads to facilitate transport of agricultural inputs and outputs and access to social infrastructures; and to increase skills, know-how and sensitisation of rural communities for road maintenance. The relevance of these objectives is rated as high, 4.

148. Project Facilitation, Monitoring and Evaluation. This project management component had the main objective of: strengthening the implementation and service delivery capacity of the relevant district departments and assisting development of a participatory approach to resource management. The revised logical framework substituted the last part of the objective with an output: participatory monitoring and evaluation promoted. Whatever the interpretation of these statements, the impetus of the component was directed to sound coordination and management of Project operations and endowing the local government development partner agencies with the necessary learning and first hand experience to raise their functional capacities. The relevance of these objectives was and is, high, 4.

B. Effectiveness

149. Whole Project. The effectiveness with which the goal or overall objective of the Project is being met can be estimated from its progress in arresting natural resource degradation, reversing the decline in farming productivity and measurably improving living standards of a significant number of people. Although there is wide variation in the assessed impact of different components and activities, as elaborated below - and considerable scope for further improvement - the aggregate effectiveness is assessed as reasonable, 2.

150. Agricultural Development. Despite the scarcity of systematic and quantified data on outputs and results, the evidence in the field indicates that the agricultural development component has largely achieved the desired objectives. It has provided a clear example of application of simple technologies through creative extension and has transformed the predicament of participating and adopting farmers. Given the scenario of social disruption and resource degradation at the commencement of the Project, the effectiveness of this component is considered to be high, 4.

151. Environmental Management. The environmental management component has been subject to greater problems of availability and competence of staff; the less immediate, less personal and less tangible nature of its benefits; and higher risks. Despite these factors - and some evidence of poor survival rates and lax management for some tree plantings - operations have been relatively successful and the effectiveness of the component is put at substantial, 3.

152. Rural Infrastructure. The health sub-component has been affected by the over-emphasis on equipment supply, some of which proved not readily usable or serviceable; deficiencies in training programme design and coverage; inadequate sensitisation and community mobilisation; and inconsistency in supervision. These factors have reduced the effectiveness of the intervention; effectiveness is therefore assessed as modest , 2.

153. The water supply sub-component has been subject to more change than other components and more difficulties in implementation. Fewer gravity schemes than planned were constructed, although these were the most likely to meet Project objectives of improved access and low operating cost; water yield and quality aspects were not fully accounted for in some schemes and designs were deficient;

30

only limited improvement of access and reduction of work load for collection were achieved; and the training and mobilisation of village water user groups is judged as inadequate. Effectiveness is assessed as minimal, 1.

154. The rural roads sub-component is close to accomplishing its target of 124 km of regional roads and 346 km of village access roads and the condition of completed rehabilitation and construction works is good. The main weaknesses in performance have been the susceptibility of local contractors to breakdowns and delays and the uncertainty about the use of local labour in the construction process. In addition, the propensity for local organisations to be able to cope with operating, maintenance and repair - and therefore sustainability - is questionable. Effectiveness of meeting the first part of the roads objective is high, 4; that for the mobilisation of local maintenance capability is cons idered modest, 2.

155. Project Facilitation, Monitoring and Evaluation. The structure for Project management devised at appraisal recognised the dilemma of ensuring effective start-up and early progress of a complex intervention like KAEMP while trying to fulfil the decentralisation principles of reliance on the planning and implementation capacities of districts, wards and villages. The decision was to establish a PFMU at the region and DPFMUs in the districts; given the shortage and limited competence of staff and the absence of proficient planning and implementation departments within local government agencies, this approach is considered to have been justified. However, the structure and approach now appear to have been deficient in not restricting the involvement of Project staff in routine and detailed operations; and in lacking an effective strategy, mechanisms and schedule for more active hand-over of Project responsibilities to district and downstream officials, or merging of Project units into existing departments, such as planning, or development committees. These weaknesses - and the excessive cost implications of the Project units accumulating additional staff and operational responsibilities - were recognised by UNOPS and accepted by Project management in 1999.

156. In the event, there has been a conscious, if still not fully successful effort on the part of the PFMU to devolve as much planning and operational responsibility as possible and staff numbers and operational costs have been progressively reduced. The practical obstacles to completion of this task have been: the discrepancy in remuneration between Project and district, ward and village officers; the continuing shortage of district staff and resources; and weaknesses in communication and understanding between parties as to their roles and levels of involvement and decision making. There is a strong need for more precise and even more purposeful devolution of Project activities in the period up to completion and possibly into a slightly extended duration.

157. The operations under the facilitation and monitoring component have covered a range of activities; some of these, such as coordination and direction of Project interventions, including ensuring the cooperation of steering committees and district personnel - and liaison with district and village authorities, NGOs, contractors and other parties - have, on the whole, been well managed. Others, including the application of the M&E system, the introduction and support of PRAs and wider participatory approaches and logical frameworks for village and district planning and the assurance of gender equity, so far less so. In general, taking account of the circumstances at the starting point of the Project and the difficulties entailed in the process of district decentralisation, the effectiveness of the component is assessed as reasonable, 2.

C. Efficiency

158. Whole Project. As noted, the Project as a whole - and most of the components - have entailed the deployment of substantial resources and funds, particularly in the start-up phase in establishing interest and launching activities, with excessive reliance on subsidies and failure to apply cost sharing principles in line with government policy. In the case of Project facilitation and monitoring, expenditure is already over 100% of the original budgeted amount. In other components, despite the absence of detailed physical and financial records, there is evidence of higher unit costs for individual

31

schemes and activities than would be expected from examination of the inputs, surrounding conditions or comparison with similar current projects. These divergences and the resulting assessments of efficiency are discussed further below.

159. As far as the overall efficiency of the Project is concerned, the crucial factor is the quantum and likely continuity of benefits from the high level of costs incurred. The Mission has undertaken an outline re-calculation, based on highly conservative estimates of actual adoption and results obtained, of the internal rate of return of the Project from the estimated costs and benefits derived from Project records and field data. The assumptions and working schedules are presented in Tables 4 and 5 of Appendix 2.

160. The results show that the calculated internal rate of return for Project operations is 15%, which compares with the EIRR of 19% produced at appraisal. The resilience of the IRR is also in line with that found at appraisal; that is, a reduction of benefits of 10% still gives a rate of return of 13%. Given this result and notwithstanding the poor performance of some of the social activities, the efficiency with which the Project as a whole has been implemented is assessed as substantial, 3.

161. Individual Components. Despite the extensive coverage and impressive degree of participation in the agricultural development component and the consequent heavy deployment of resources in its implementation, present and prospective expenditure is below budget. This is partly due to the putting in place of strategies to contain costs in later years. Given a reasonable prospect of sustainability on the basis of the financial justification for continued uptake of the introduced technologies and the strength of the group structure that has been developed, the efficiency of agricultural development is judged as substantial, 3.

162. The environmental management component has to date incurred costs that are also lower than planned, in spite of the fact that physical achievements are above predicted levels. Although there are certain misgivings about survival and growth rates of trees and standards of plantation management, efficiency for this component is again ranked as substantial, 3.

163. The health sub-component has been characterised by procurement and supply of equipment without a proper needs assessment and beyond the capability of the health units to operate; and by deficiencies in the application of cost-sharing regimes and in the management of revolving funds. The efficiency is assessed as low/negligible, 1.

164. The costs of indiv idual schemes within the water supply sub-component are on average double those estimated at appraisal and the overall costs of water provision per head of beneficiary population are estimated at over 50% more than standard costs. These are higher deviatio ns from norms than can be attributed solely to the acknowledged additional remoteness costs and inflation rates affecting Kagera. In addition, the levels of salary/fee payments for skilled labour inputs appear excessive and the sustainability of water source improvements is not well assured. For these reasons, the efficiency of implementation is ranked as low/negligible, 1.

165. The physical and financial records for the roads sub-component reveal wide discrepancies between district figures for similar works and between quantum of works and design and supervision costs. Given also the uncertainty of the size of the local labour employment benefit from construction and doubts about the arrangements for repair and maintenance, efficiency is assessed as modest, 2.

166. The Project facilitation and monitoring component has incurred excessive costs and still has weaknesses in monitoring and evaluation, in the practical application of district capacity building activities and in gender sensitivity. Efficiency is put as modest, 2.

167. The overall Project performance as assessed by UNOPS supervision missions is depicted in Tables 6 and 7 of Appendix 2. The main recording of problems - all classified as minor problems, ranked 2 on the UNOPS scale, except for initial delays in staffing - was in the first year for a range of

32

indicators; in years 2 and 3 for loan covenant compliance, the M&E system and time over-runs; but with a continuing problem, up to 2002, of counterpart funding.

33

V. PERFORMANCE OF PARTNERS

A. Performance of IFAD

168. Project Formulation and Design. At the time of appraisal, the involvement since 1994 of IFAD - and BSF/JP - in the refugee emergency assistance programme for fuel wood provision and re- forestation laid the basis for a positive response to government interest in a more comprehensive and development oriented project. This was based on proposals for two separate projects prepared by an FAO/TCP team in 1995. IFAD followed up these proposals with: a desk study of assistance options; a consultation with stakeholders in Kagera on environmental issues and intervention priorities; and finally, in early 1996, an agreement with government to prepare a single regional project.

169. Project formulation was undertaken by an FAO/IC mission in the first half of 1996 and the resulting project was appraised between July and October. On the basis of the Appraisal Report, government negotiated with IFAD - and with BSF and the OPEC Fund - for loan and grant assistance for KAEMP. The Project became effective in September 1997, with a closing date of December 2003, and the first expenditures were incurred in 1998. The process of Project development should have have been faster and less tortuous and IFAD should have put more effort and urgency into resolving the considerable complexities of: consonance with the overall mitigation programme for refugee assistance; multiple donor involvement; and the need for stakeholder input to enable IFAD to meet its pre-occupations with targeting, innovation and participation. In light of these factors, the time to practical implementation is considered rather excessive.

170. The design was that of a classic, integrated rural development project, covering all five districts with the agricultural, environmental and facilitation components but with adjustments of rural infrastructure inputs to take account of the state of facilities and the presence or prospect of other donor activities in Bukoba Rural, Karagwe and Ngara. The multi-sectoral and wide geographic coverage and the mode of decentralised implementation inevitably meant that the Project was rather ambitious and complex in concept and design. Given the depth and urgency of needs, it is difficult to see how they could have been simplified, but omission or diminution of the health and water supply sub-components might have been justified in terms of the marginal nature of the former and the costs involved in the latter - and the possibly enhanced impact of other activities.

171. Apart from the ambition and complexity, a number of aspects of design have proven to be less effective than they might. Although there was much stated emphasis on beneficiary participation, the Project actually appears to have been conceived and designed in a top-down manner and it was not given a meaningful community mobilisation/development input. Such a component could have strengthened the - so far not too convincing - efforts to establish capable health management, water user and roads maintenance committees; and not least, promoted a genuine community-backed basis for natural resource utilisation and management. Other areas in which design could have been more detailed and explicit were: incorporation of elements of gender awareness and equality; M&E systems definition; and the sanitation/hygiene factors in water supply schemes.

172. Participation during Implementation. The experience of the PFMU and the concerned central government cadre has been that back-up from IFAD has been timely and effective in resolving technical issues and in dealing with loan management matters. The relevant IFAD personnel are seen to have taken an active role in promoting and supporting the project, including participation in supervision, coordination of related activities such as the IFAD/FAO Farmer Field School projects and acquisition of other related grant assistance, viz the gender awareness training and HIV/AIDS programmes. IFAD regional project management workshops have been particularly practical and useful. Overall, the performance of IFAD is ranked as satisfactory, 3.

34

B. Performance of UNOPS

173. The cooperating institution for the Project in its first year was the World Bank, but since year two, 1999, it has been UNOPS. The Nairobi Outpost of the Service has made four annual supervision visits, ranging from ten to fourteen days in duration in the field. Two of the supervision missions have had IFAD participation and two representation by Belgian Embassy or BSF regional staff. The Mid- term Review was arranged by government with considerable help from UNOPS and with IFAD- BSF/JP assistance - and undertaken by a largely national consulting team in April 2002. Table 6 of Appendix 2 lists details of the supervision missions.

174. From year 2, supervision has been consistent and appears to have been thorough in terms of the timely and cogent assessment of progress and transmission of findings and recommendations. However, the subsequent performance of the health and water supply sub-components suggests that there was inadequate specialist medical and water engineering expertise applied in the first three years.

175. In the same vein, the paucity and imprecision of information made available to the Interim Evaluation Mission calls in question the optimistic tenor of UNOPS conclusions as to the proficiency of M&E and the achievement of targets; and, given that, in general, the analysis and recommendations of supervision missions were perceptive, the bland and discursive way in which findings and recommendations were presented detracts from their impact and usefulness.

176. In addition, while appreciating that there are tight budgetary limitations on what can be done at supervision, it is the opinion of the Mission that there should have been more rigour in the investigation of progress - and particularly in examination of financial recording and control of individual schemes and cost centres - at district level. The performance of UNOPS in supervision is assessed as adequate - a score of between 2 and 3.

C. Performance of Government, Agencies and Project Management

177. The main direct function of Central Government has been in convening steering committees, giving policy guidance and overall direction and providing liaison between the donors, the various ministries and the Project. Despite changes in the location of the Regional Administration and Local Government department at the centre, there has been good continuity and cooperation from the personnel involved in these relationships. PO-RALG and MAFS have been the key participants; communication among them and between them and the Regional Administration and the PFMU has been satisfactory. The cooperation of other ministries, including MWCT, MWLD and MCM - and until recently MOF -- has been less consistent and conscientious. Another principal weakness in central government involvement has been the persistent delay and shortfall in counterpart funding.

178. The Regional and District Commissioners Offices and Administrations have played a crucial role in the enablement and support of project activities, the great majority of which are now tied in to district development plans and employ district staff as front line operatives. The Regional Steering Committee and Tender Board arrangements have been satisfactory. Principal weaknesses at district level have been the stringency of finance and resource availability - which partly explains the excessive costs of facilitation and monitoring - and the scarcity, inexperience and lack of skills of some of the key technical staff.

179. However, a key part has been played by District Executive Directors, Administrative Secretaries and Planning Officers and District Management Committees. At ward and village level there have been rather more problems of competence of staff and lack of resources; although attitudes may be positive, Project affairs tend to be relegated in the face of more urgent concerns of village/ward development committees. Overall, the government performance is assessed as satisfactory, 3.

180. The Project management, although termed facilitation and monitoring unit, has in fact shouldered the major responsibility for driving forward local interest and participation and energising

35

virtually every activity. The PFMU core staff, its technical advisory cadre and the District Project Facilitators and senior district departmental personnel that comprise the project management capability have demonstrated interest in and empathy with Project aims and the technical competence to understand the process and ensure that things get done. In this they have been greatly assisted by the supporting administrative and secretarial staff and by the modern communications system put in place by the Project.

181. Work plans and budgets have generally been put in place on time. The scheduling and progress chasing of activities actually being undertaken has also been reasonable, with some exceptions noted above, in rural infrastructure. A great majority of recommendations from supervision missions for action and change have been accepted and implemented; recording and reporting has been timely, albeit that the accuracy and relevance of some of the data presented have been less than sound. A workmanlike mid-term review was mounted, which recommended a re-allocation of Project funding towards completion; it is the opinion of the Mission that the re-allocation should be revised for this final year of implementation.

182. There have been a number of specific shortfalls in management performance: although it is part of government policy - and was part of design - for beneficiaries to have established credible local organisations with demonstrated financial viability and to have made cash contributions to some Project investments, this was not fully adhered to; the failure of the input supply credit scheme should have been identified and the issue of an alternative approach resolved earlier; the oversight of district expenditures and individual scheme inputs and costs has not been as strict as it should; a not fully satisfactory M&E system has been allowed to drift and persist; technical supervision of the water supply component and its mode of implementation has been inadequate; and overall financial control has been less rigorous than it should be. In aggregate, Project management performance is assessed as competent, between 2 and 3.

D. Performance of NGOs/CBOs

183. The Project has made use of available NGO expertise, particularly in innovations in agricultural development, such as that of Mayawa in the introduction of vanilla and mulberry/sericulture as alternative cash crops; and in support for IPM/IPN group and SGA members to acquire through KALIDEP or its successor farmers trust, KADETFU, dairy heifers for milk and farmyard manure production. Where existing NGO activities overlap with KAEMP interventions, there has generally been good liaison and few problems are reported. In the various endeavours the Project has had ready cooperation from local NGOs, including having their participation in steering committee and planning meetings, where relevant.

184. The Project itself has been a major player in the development of CBOs in Kagera. The emergence of IPM/IPN groups and SGAs complements the prior existence of a number of groups that have been formed mostly by NGOs such as Oxfam and World Vision or local, religion based organisations such as the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Tanzania or the Bukoba Catholic Diocese. CBOs formed by NGOs are generally engaged in health, education and water supply micro-projects, but some also have roles in advocacy and other social affairs or have been involved in tree nursery training. Insofar as they have been involved, NGO/CBO contribution to support of KAEMP is ranked as substantive, 3.

E. Performance of Cofinanciers

185. Belgian Survival Fund. The pre-existence of the Belgian funded Kagera Community Development Project, KCDP and its activities in promotion of improved banana cultivars were useful precedents for the design of KAEMP. By the same token, the continuing input by the staff of the Belgian Embassy in Tanzania to supervision of KCDP - and the frequent contact with the regional coordinator for BSF from Kampala - have had sound practical advantages for the PFMU. No problems have been reported regarding the management of the Belgian grant funds - which were also handled by

36

UNOPS - and BSF/JP has dealt promptly and positively with requested variations in training programmes and budgets.

7. OPEC. The approach of the OPEC Fund to implementation management is not to become involved in the fine and everyday detail but to maintain a discreet and active dialogue from a distance with the PFMU; and respond in a timely and efficient manner to technical or administrative communications and withdrawal requests. The Fund, as an exception to its normal practice, gave agreement to establishment of a special account in order to facilitate consultancy and contractor payments. The performance of the cofinanciers is assessed as 3.

186. The performances of the Project and the development partners are summarised, using the 1 to 4 ratings system, in Tables 4 and 5, below.

Table 4 Project Performance Summary

Component/Activity Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency

Agricultural Development 4 4 3

Environmental Management 3 3 3

Rural Infrastructure: - Health 2 2 1 - Water Supply 4 1 1 - Roads 4 4/2 2

Project Facilitation/Monitoring 4 2 2

Whole Project 4 2 3

Table 5 Partner Performance Summary

Partner IFAD UNOPS Govt Project Mgt NGO/CBOs Cofinanciers

Rating 3 2/3 3 2/3 3 3

37

VI. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND CONCLUSIONS

187. KAEMP has satisfie d the second element of its goal in that it has reversed the long term decline in agricultural production of the region; and while it cannot be claimed that the Project alone has met the first aim of the goal and rehabilitated the region by countering all of the adverse effects of refugee encroachment, it can be said that it has had a substantive impact on: environmental awareness; re- vegetation of degraded lands; and control of water hyacinth infestation in the Kagera River and Lake Victoria.

188. The extent to which the Project has met the supporting objectives that were expounded at appraisal varies. In the case of improving household food production and incomes in a sustainable manner, it has succeeded and has undoubtedly laid the basis - and pointed the way - for continuing improvement of agricultural productivity and prosperity for the mainstream farming systems of the region. This achievement has been underpinned, as described above, by local organisational developments and cost effective, sustainable extension approaches.

189. It has also succeeded, as implied above, in its support for the process of improving environmental management, not least by establishment of tree seedling nursery capacity and enablement of individual and communal tree planting, both on a basis that is thought likely to prove commercially viable and sustainable. However, on the other aspect of environment in the fourth objective, namely that of assisting development of a participatory approach to resource management, only a few cases of fostering the necessary community, private sector and Village Government cooperation for genuine community-based natural resource management have been accomplished.

190. On the third subsidiary objective on the subject of rural infrastructure, KAEMP has recorded an on-target performance for the rehabilitation or construction of main and access roads - and the benefits for farmers and communities are already emerging in terms of the facilitation of marketing and other income generating pursuits.

191. However, the messages in the case of health and water supply are not positive. Access to health facilities has been only marginally enhanced by the equipment provision and training that have been provided, and there is as yet no conclusive evidence of measurable beneficial effect or sustainability. For water supply, while again access has been improved in some cases, the levels of penetration and benefit that were able to be verified are much lower than Project reports imply; the costs of individual schemes appear to have been inordinately high; the cleanliness and safety of water supplies are not satisfactory; and the sustainability of water source operation, maintenance and management is not considered to be assured by the present VWUG arrangements.

192. The fina l objective - the strengthening of the implementation and service delivery capacity of the relevant district departments - has also been achieved to a reasonable degree. It is openly acknowledged by the PFMU that district departmental performance in pursuit of Project activities has been the lynchpin of coverage and impact at the grass roots. Part of this achievement is undoubtedly attributable to the simple availability of transport and supplies - and the generous allowances and operating cost provisions that came with the Project. Nevertheless, the view of the Mission is that there has been a meaningful enhancement of the skills, confidence and enthusiasm of district staff that augurs well for future sustainability.

193. If the achievement of Project targets is viewed in the context of the nine revised outputs listed in the new logical framework, the main shortfalls are related to:

· assurance of agricultural input supply - pending launch of the new credit scheme;

· effective promotion of participatory natural resource management - only limited effort and impact so far, as described above;

38

· improved health service delivery - advantages so far identified are marginal;

· improved farmers access to safe drinking water - limited, as described above; and

· effective promotion of participatory monitoring and evaluation - improvement needed.

194. When degree of target achievement and the impacts and prospective sustainability of the Project are taken into account, KAEMP has been a largely successful development intervention, despite its ambitious coverage of five large, remote districts and its wide range of subject matter. The implementation of the principal productive components of agricultural development and environmental management has been according to schedule and expectation, as has that of the major supporting infrastructural sub-component, main and access roads. Project facilitation and district capacity building have succeeded to a similar degree.

195. There is no fundamental reason why the complementarity between the productive components and the supporting social activities should not have been realised to the extent that was expected. The shortfalls in proficiency of execution and impact of the health and water supply sub-components could have been rectified by technic al support and a different mode of implementation. In the case of health, there were design weaknesses of specifying the equipment to be supplied without a timely and rigorous assessment of need by district and health unit; of limiting the training coverage among grass roots staff; and of insufficient technical/medical support from Project management and supervision. These militated against a more constructive contribution of the intervention to the availability and quality of family labour that would have fed in to the realisation of on-farm impacts.

196. In the case of water supply, the difficulties were less in the original appraisal design but more in the choice of schemes, the assessment of potential of sources, the technical specifications of improvement works and failure or inability to engage competent contractors to undertake the construction. Despite the disappointing outcome of these activities, the basic tenets of design of the Project are considered valid and appropriate for replication in similar contexts elsewhere, albeit that the effectiveness and efficiency of implementation would be improved if it was possible to concentrate on a less diverse range of activities.

39

VII. INSIGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A. Lessons from Project Experience

197. Individual lessons of importance for technical and sectoral reasons with respect to the management of implementation are highlighted and discussed in the main body of this report and in the Working Papers. They are not exhaustively repeated here; but those that are of key significance and/or have wider and cross-cutting implications for the design and conduct of future projects are incorporated below.

198. The lessons that are considered critical can be summarised as follows:

· the zero year concept: implementation of KAEMP would have been greatly facilitated and expedited if there had been a zero year before the formal commencement of the Project when community sensitisation, PRAs and logical framework training for district staff and village leaders and officials could have been undertaken, leading to the preparation of realistic village development and community action plans; a real understanding of the demand-driven concept; and mitigation of the dependency syndrome; at the same time, a proper baseline survey, some key diagnostic studies and clear identification of the target group could have been carried out, and staff recruitment and procurement advanced;

· the gender dimension: although KAEMP is judged to have had a better than average involvement of - and impact on - women, it would have been helpful to have: a clearer identification of gender equity issues in Project activities; and explicit description of interventions and mechanisms to ensure the fair sharing of benefits and improvement in the predicament and status of women;

· linkage of components: the integrated, participatory community-based approach has worked to a degree in each separate sector, but lack of sufficient, continuous inter- component linkage, for example between agriculture and health with respect to child nutrition, has precluded attainment of the full potential for synergy of Project benefits;

· sustainability concerns: the question of sustainability of Project benefits and of definition of the means, measures and methods of phasing out of proje cts needs to be more comprehensively addressed at the outset of design and built into the implementation plan; implementation through the existing, decentralised district planning and administrative framework is feasible and can be cost-effective, but the performance of wards and villages as management and planning entities varies widely with the calibre of chairpersons and leaders - and for the foreseeable future they will need considerable further training and district or external help in formalising and finalising their reports and plans;

· the terms and conditions for district staff involvement: the mode of implementation through the decentralised district system has proved reasonably successful, but would have been rendered even less problematical and more effective in terms of commitment and accountability if staff had been given clear job descriptions, with their responsibilities; the incentives and penalties to be applied in respect of performance; and the opportunities for training and possibly promotion, spelt out;

· the importance of good communications and flexibility: KAEMP has been a prime example of the benefits of: adequate resourcing of the communications network - telephone, cell phone, radio and internet, as well as good roads - for project management; and ability to change the approach and design for components and activities in the face of actual conditions on the ground, for instance in problems of marketing, being different from those envisaged;

40

· the quandary of record keeping and reporting: availability of accurate and usable records at all levels of planning and implementation - except on-farm, see below - has been a persistent problem; the difficulties of obtaining relevant and accurate data about water supply scheme works and costs is a case in point; it is clear that the present and prospective systems of monitoring and evaluation are too complex and burdensome for practicable application; a new and different approach needs to be devised to make M&E effective in providing management, process assessment and impact evaluation information;

· in contrast, farm business recording has been a notable success: many IPM/IPN group, farmer field school and SGA members, and some of their contacts, have become assiduous record keepers - and users - of information for both farm and household budget planning; this is an exceptional achievement - and one that needs to be fostered, promoted and extended to other groups within KAEMP, such as VWUGs and roads committees, as well as to other rural development interventions and programmes; and

· the group and minimal cost approach: for information dissemination and technology transfer, the Project has evolved an approach and methodology, based on the IPM/IPN and FFS groups, SGAs and Farmer Cadres that can serve as an example of the transformation of extension theory into practice in:

- farmer to farmer dialogue, assistance and advice at economic cost;

- facilitation of collective market research and marketing, bulk input supply and possibly credit provision;

- research and support of diverse livelihoods improvement opportunities, including income earning as resource persons/development contractors by groups and Farmer Cadres themselves; and - particularly -

- community based seed and planting material production; if the latter continues to prove successful, it could be rolled out nationally as a system of producing affordable, well-adapted, quality crop inputs.

B. Recommendations

Immediate and Short Term

199. The first set of Mission recommendations addresses urgent problems or opportunities and applies mainly to the period up to Project completion.

200. Agricultural development. In agricultural development, it is recommended that:

· availability of cmd resistant planting material through SGAs/multipliers be increased; · emphasis be placed on alternative crops where banana improvement has already assured food security needs and banana market conditions are problematical; however, the number and variety of new and more esoteric crop introductions should be curtailed;

· loans for inputs and productive re-investment be made available to all group/SGA members that present sound, bankable proposals; and

· direct farmer/group action to improve marketing of produce be instigated/facilitated.

41

201. Environmental management. The recommendations for environmental management are that:

· supply of seeds at reasonable prices for the most popular tree species be arranged;

· support for seedling producers and tree planters, including their promotion as consultants and resource persons for other projects and agencies, be continued; and

· responsibility and resources for water hyacinth control be handed over as soon as practicable to LVEMP and/or to the appropriate regional or district agencies.

202. The urgent recommendations for health measures - which, now that the existing grant funds are exhausted, would require a measure additional funding from an extension of the BSF/JP grant - are that:

· DMEOs liaise with the health information officer to review/extract data from the HIS and the latter be provided incentives to assist with the M&E process;

· the mosquito net revolving fund be decentralized and proportionally allocated to all the districts; and districts be given responsibility for future operation of the scheme, including disposal of unsuitable nets, follow up insecticide supply and possible easy payment plans;

· a selected number of VHCs be trained and coached to implement cost sharing as pilot schemes that can give feed back to VDCs for health planning and budgeting purposes; and

· a full inventory and classification of equipment should be carried out and repair, modification and re-distribution arranged, including, as appropriate, to Bukoba and hospitals.

203. Water Supply. The recommendations for water supply are that:

· while schemes currently under construction should be completed, any planned or additional water supply schemes be constructed only when their feasibility, including their protection from pollution and the sustainability of their operation, maintenance and financing, have been properly assessed and their design approved by a competent professional adviser;

· a detailed comparative costing be made of a small sample of Project-assisted schemes to determine accurate unit costs and the efficiency of different modes of implementation;

· as the highest priority for water quality and safety for existing Project schemes, there be introduced: for springs, secure protection perimeters of >100 m and means of disinfection of storage tanks; for shallow and ring wells, routine chlorination; and for gravity schemes and rain water tanks, regular testing and disinfection/chlorination as necessary; and

· the decision to install water quality laboratories in all districts be re-visited, with a feasibility study to include a thorough and objective comparative costing of alternative means of servicing regional/district water quality control obligations.

204. Roads. The immediate recommendations for roads are that:

· tool sets and handbooks of maintenance and repair guidelines be delivered as soon as possible to village road committees;

· KAEMP liaise with the UNCDF Mwanza project for information sharing and district roads staff training; and

42

· further training and supervision be provided to the villagers as required.

Longer Term

205. The second set of recommendations are framed to address the need for consolidation of the benefits of KAEMP and for continued rural development in Kagera, as well as considering their wider application in project and programme design in Tanzania - and their possible contribution to the policies and strategies of the CLP members.

206. In agricultural development, the longer term aim would be to assure the development of an increasingly commercialised and profitable agriculture sector. To this end, it is recommended that

· group and SGA viability be consolidated with further/advanced training of groups, farmers and extension staff and continuing advisory support for a period of at least one year;

· practical marketing research be promoted and direct farmer/trader linkages encouraged - and in future projects, the marketing implications of increased farm productivity be much more rigorously investigated and catered for;

· KAEMP -trained farmers/group leaders be engaged in a process to produce an improved Farm Records/Accounts Book; and

· the groups and Farmer Cadres that KAEMP has supported be promoted as preferred agencies and (paid) consultants/resource persons for other donor and NGO projects;

207. The long term recommendations for environmental management are that:

· training on environment and conservation in schools and other learning institutions be improved and expanded;

· a programme for agro-forestry, soil conservation and land management be devised, preferably as a community-based natural resource management scheme, involving districts, village governments, communities and groups and the private sector; and

· the sustainable commercialisation of the timber and fuel wood sectors be assisted, including expansion of work already started on use of cheap local materials for nurseries.

208. Health. In health, the longer term recommendations - which again would benefit from a supplementation of BSF/JP funding - are that:

· capacity building in management, finance and bookkeeping for VHCs be given priority;

· VHWs and TBAs be included in additional training in disease prevention and community mobilisation; and

· health education - in child nutrition for villages with agriculture interventions; and in water- borne diseases for villages with water supply schemes - be initiated or intensified.

209. Under water supply, it is recommended that:

· a rigorous review be undertaken of the credibility and viability of VWUGs or committees responsible for Project schemes; and, where justified, intensive capability building by a professional adviser/NGO in administration and accounting be provided; in addition,

43

further sensitisation, information, training and means - that is, drafting of necessary by-laws - to enforce contribution and proper organisation, including more equitable and effective women’s representation be provided by an NGO; at least twelve months of additional input is estimated to be entailed;

· a small revolving stock of the normal wearing parts of hand pumps be facilitated at district level, preferably through private sector stockists - or private/public sector cooperation;

· replacement of some of the borehole hand pumps that are unsuitable for the present depth/work of pumping be arranged; and

· a specialist water supply M&E system be instituted to assist village water management.

210. The longer term and more general recommendations for roads are that:

· concerning future labour-based technology (LBT) implementation, a combined approach, with the use of a minimum of machinery where technical standards cannot be obtained with intensive la bour operations only, be employed for all road sections;

· subdivision of sub-projects into minor and small contracts be avoided except where there is evidence of adequate existing or strong prospective local capability for execution; and

· where practical, credit facilities and arrangements for contractors be put in place as part of the contract and the need for local private sector capacity building.

211. M&E and Gender. Additional recommendations with respect to M&E and gender are that:

· the whole M&E approach, systems, data formats and procedures be simplified and streamlined in line with real local capability and resources, so that there is:

- more participation by beneficiaries and enablement of their own M&E capacity;

- more qualitative recording of impact and livelihood change according to specific indicators set by participants;

- incorporation of gender sensitive indicators in the M&E system so that the involvement of and benefits for men and women can be separately measured and assured;

- improved process monitoring - with regular village and group meetings; some is done already and this should be part of all IFAD M&E inputs;

- more training on participatory and gender aspect monitoring, communication, group dynamics and conflict resolution; and

- precise attribution of responsibilities, incentives and allocation of resources.

· the DMEO be a full time district planning office person and the District Community Development Officer, who knows most about impacts, be involved in all M&E activities; and

· distric t staff and village governments and officers be given continued support in participatory planning and M&E - and in the utilization of the logical framework;

44

· KAEMP/district staff carry out a gender analysis of each component;

· gender focal points be absorbed into District Administrations and made permanent to provide gender orientation and guide the process of gender mainstreaming in district departments and at ward and village level;

· specific strengthening of women’s groups and women-only training be done;

· knowledge and skills in gender analysis and mainstreaming be further consolidated to ensure institutionalisation and integration in regional, district and community plans, including use of gender sensitive indicators and analysis of gender disaggregated data; and

· all IFAD projects include specific, policy-aligned gender monitoring indicators.

212. The recommendations indicate the strong need for further consolidation of training and knowledge endowment and capacity building of groups and committees that will stretch beyond the proposed Project completion date. The Mission recommends that the possibility be explored of utilising part of the year 6 funding - and a measure of additional funding if proven necessary by a more detailed costing of the inputs required - for a consolidation phase of at least one further year of limited and targeted assistance to optimise impact and obviate what could otherwise be a certain loss of development impetus.

213. This extended input would concentrate on the further training, guidance and management support of groups, SGAs and committees on whose competence the sustainability of Project benefits will largely depend. It would also encompass additional support for districts, wards and villages in planning and development implementation processes. IFAD and BSF/JP should consult with PO- RALG and the Regional and District Administrations, probably in the context of the Agreement at Completion Point, to formulate an appropriate follow-up programme.

214. At the same time, the Regional and District Administrations might wish to actively and expeditiously pursue the possibility that other donors would be interested in contributing complementary funding to the commercialisation, community-based natural resource management, capability building, livelihoods support and micro-finance interventions alluded to in this report.

45

46

Appendix 1

REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA, INTERIM EVALUATION

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT (KAEMP)

APPROACH PAPER

A. Background and Rationale

The Kagera Agricultural and Environmental Management Project (KAEMP) was approved by the IFAD Executive Board in December 1996. It became effective in September 1997 and its present closing date is December 2003. The total project costs is USD 24.1 million, out of which IFAD’s loan on highly concessional terms is USD 14.83 million. The project’s cofinanciers, OPEC and the Belgium Survival Fund (BSF), have provided grants of USD 4.1 million and USD 2.5 million, respectively. The Government of Tanzania (GOT) and the beneficiaries provided a total contribution of around USD 2.69 million. The UNOPS is the co-operating institution for the project and the Prime Minister’s Office, through the Regional Administrative Secretary of Kagera, is executing the project in five districts, namely Ngara, Karagwa, Biharamulo, Muleba and Bukoba.

KAEMP is a multi-sectoral rural development project targeting around 190 000 household beneficiaries. Its goal is to rehabilitate and improve food security in the Kagera Region, which has been adversely affected by both an influx of refugees and a long-term decline in agricultural productivity. KAEMP’s purpose is to: (a) improve household food production and income of smallholders; (b) contribute to improving natural resources through tree planting; (c) enhance drinking water, health and roads infrastructure; and (d) strengthen the capacity of institutions at the district level.

As part of its global evaluation programme under the joint IFAD-BSF Joint Programme, the BSF has requested IFAD’s Office of Evaluation and Studies (OE) to undertake the evaluation of KAEMP in 2002. The exercise will be based on IFAD’s overall evaluation approach and process, and the new impact evaluation methodology developed by OE in 2001/2 will be applied in the KAEMP evaluation.

B. Objectives of the evaluation

The objective of the evaluation will be to: (a) assess and document the impact and sustainability of KAEMP; and (b) develop a series of insights and recommendations that will serve to improve project activities during the remaining period of implementation and the design of similar future projects and programmes in Tanzania. The evaluation will also contribute to building the Fund’s and its partners knowledge-base on rural poverty alleviation.

C. Expected outcome of the evaluation

The evaluation is expected to provide an opportunity for learning and lead to an understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by the project. It will also result in a set of coherent and implementable recommendations to guide IFAD and its partners. A focused evaluation report will be produced based on the standard table of contents and format adopted by OE in 2002 for all evaluation reports.

47

D. The Evaluation Process

The evaluation will involve: (a) the preparation of an approach paper that will outline the overall evaluation process, methodology and timeframes; (b) constitution of a Core Learning Partnership (CLP) to steer the evaluation process under the responsibility of the OE; and (c) the formulation of an Agreement at Comple tion Point (ACP) at the end of evaluation, which will contain an understanding among the main partners on key evaluation insights, recommendations and follow up actions.

More specifically, the evaluation will be initiated by discussions with key partners and a thorough desk review of relevant documents, which will contribute to the identification of issues for investigation during the evaluation. The lead OE evaluator will then travel to Tanzania in mid-October 2002 to hold discussions with KAEMP stakeholders on the approach paper and to make arrangements for the evaluation team’s field work. This will be followed by the preparation of the mission’s detailed terms of reference (TOR) and fielding of the evaluation mission, which will include multi-disciplinary expertise3. Members of the evaluation mission will be asked to come for briefing to IFAD headquarters before their travel to Tanzania for the field work.

Under the overall responsibility of the lead OE evaluator, the exercise will benefit from the guidance of the Core Learning Partnership (CLP). The CLP will be formed at the outset of the evaluation and its role will be to provide inputs at key stages in the evaluation, including during the preparation of the Approach Paper and mission TOR, the main evaluation report and the evaluation Agreement at Completion Point (see next paragraph). The CLP will comprise of the IFAD Director of Africa II Division, Country Portfolio Manager (Tanzania), the lead evaluation officer and BSF Programme Manager, UNOPS portfolio manager, KAEMP liasion officer in the Prime Minister’s Office, the Project Co-ordinator and a representative from the Kagera district council.

The evaluation will be concluded by the formulation of an Agreement at Completion Point (ACP), which will contain key insights and recommendations that core partners agree to adopt and implement in ongoing KAEMP operations and future programme design and implementation.

E. Key Evaluation Issues

Some of the key issues that the evaluation will focus on are listed below. They will be more thoroughly developed and reflected in the mission’s TOR.

Agriculture component

To which extent did the approach to agricultural extension service (IPM and IPN through farmer field schools) revitalise the agricultural education system and contribute to the increased productivity and income? How far could the project enhance the understanding of beneficiaries and field staff on the linkages between increased agricultural production, improved human nutrition and health? Has the project improved the availability and accessibility to a year around balance diet for women, men and children in the project area? How effective is the seed multiplication and distribution programme in general and to what extend does the seed programme/seed producer groups have an economic impact on the poorest women and men? How effective is the agriculture input supply revolving fund functioning?

3 The mission will include experts in the following areas: mission leader/Agriculture, Public Health, Rural Infrastructure and Water Management, Rural Sociology, and Gender/M&E. The mission will consist of at least one Tanzanian (locally recruited) consultant.

48

Infrastructure/water supply/health

How has the road construction affected the livelihoods of the rural people , particularly with respect to input supply, generation of labour/income, accessibility to marketing facilities, input prices, and health services? Determine the extent to which beneficiaries are involved in the health and water supply programme, and revie w the cost-sharing arrangements? Assess the construction of the water supply scheme and its implication on the time devoted to collect water, impact on whom (by gender)? Has the distribution of mosquito nets been effective in Bukoba to reduce the malaria cases, particularly infant mortality?

Environmental component

What were the consequences of the tree planting programme? Did the project successfully contribute to the control of the waterhyacinth infestation in the Kagera river? To which extent is the local population actively involved in the management of the natural resources (reforestation, waterhyacinth control) and knowledgeable on the linkages between deforestation, environmental protection, poverty, food security and health?

Socio -economic issues

What results were achieved in terms of empowerment of communities? What were the levels of participation and did the project contribute to enhanced gender equity and women’s increased access to and control over productive resources and services (e.g. forest, information, water, income, health and agriculture extension service)? Evaluate the role of community-based organisations and the targeting mechanisms adopted, as well as the rural poverty focus of the intervention. Review the progress made under the gender programme. What has been the performance of the monitoring and evaluation? The evaluation will pay particular attention to assessing the synergies between the social and productive/investment components of KAEMP, and comment on the opportunities and constraints of such complementary interventions for rural poverty reduction.

Institutions, Implementation and Project Management

The evaluation will assess the adequacy of the overall implementation partnerships and arrangements, and review the capacities of the various institutions involved in operations. It will pay close attention to project management, implementation and supervision activities.

F. Methodology of the evaluation

The evaluation shall be participatory in nature, involving representatives from all relevant parties throughout the process. The evaluation will be designed and conducted in accordance with the evaluation impact methodology and approach to evaluation elaborated by OE. There will be three core areas for analysis: a) Rural Poverty Impact; b) Performance of Interventions (relevance of objectives, effectiveness and efficiency); and c) Performance of Partners (IFAD, GOT/PMO, Kagera District Council, BSF, UNOPS, CBOs and others). The matrix associated with the impact methodology will also be filled out by the mission.

49

A combination of different methodologies will be used to achieve the objective of the evaluation. As assessment will be made of the impact studies undertaken by the project. In selected project sites, gender-sensitive PRA methods and/or an open-ended questionnaire/survey will be undertaken to generate information from beneficiaries. Key informant interviews, focus group discussions and (informal) workshops will also be used to learn from implementing partners, the project management unit, district and field staff, grassroots organisations, government authorities and donors. Additionally, the review of secondary data prior to the fieldwork will assist to consolidate the empirical evidence collected in the field. At the end of the fieldwork, a workshop will be held in the Kagera district to present and discuss the initial findings and preliminary conclusions of the evaluation team. This will be followed by a wrap-up meeting in Dar es Salaam. The mission will prepare a Debriefing Note in the field, which will constitute the basis for discussions at the workshop in Kagera and during the Dar wrap-up meeting.

G. Communication of Evaluation results

A reader friendly evaluation report will be produced (maximum length 35 pages), with an executive summary of 5-7 pages. In addition, an evaluation profile will be prepared at the end of the exercise, and the main evaluation outputs will be posted on the “Evaluation” section of the IFAD web site.

Evaluation results will be thoroughly discussed and disseminated in-country. This will involve the organization of workshops in Tanzania bringing together all the key stakeholders, leading up to the formulation of the evaluation’s Agreement at Completion point.

50

H. Work Plan

Date Activity 29 Sep to 4 Identification of relevant documents and desk study of Oct 2002 secondary data 6 Oct Development of draft Approach Paper and draft TOR 11 Oct Distribution of Approach Paper to CLP 16-18 Oct Preparatory evaluation mission to Tanzania 19- 30 Oct Finalisation of Approach Paper, TOR, Recruitment of Consultants, refinement and preparation of evaluation approach/methodology and field programme 7-8/11 Mission briefing in Rome 9/11 – 5/12 Field work 11-12/11 Meetings in Dar 13/11 Travel to Kagera 13-27/11 Field work 28/11 – 1/12 Preparation of Debriefing Note (DN) in Kagera 2/12 Distribution of DN to all concerned 2/12 Kagera Workshop/wrap-up discussions 3/12 Travel to Dar 5/12 Wrap-up meeting in Dar Dec 2002 Debriefing OE/PMD/BSF at IFAD HQs Dec 02 - Jan Preparation of evaluation report 03 Feb 2003 Discussion of draft evaluation report with CLP Feb – Mar 03 Finalise Report, Prepare and Discuss ACP Mar 03 Agreement at Completion Point (ACP)

51

Annex 1 – Bibliography

The evaluation mission will review a series of documents:

1. IFAD-OE (2000), New evaluation approach and process 2. IFAD-OE (2002), Towards an Impact Evaluation Methodology 3. IFAD (2002), Regional Strategy Paper for rural poverty reduction in Eastern and Southern Africa 4. IFAD (1998) Tanzania, Country Strategic Opportunities Paper 5. IFAD-OE (2002), Tanzania, Country Programme Evaluation Report 6. UNOPS (2001 and 2002) KAEMP Supervision Reports 7. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (1999), Study of Food Security Situation in the Kagera Region, Tanzania, Final report 8. Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (1999), Report on KAEMP Impact Monitoring Study 1998 -1999 9. KAEMP Mid-Term Review Report 2001 10. Care International in Tanzania (1997), Kagera Environment Programme, Report on IFAD Funded Activities, March 1996-June 1997 11. Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (1998), KAEMP Progress Status Report 1st July to 30th September 1998 12. Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (1999), KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 31st December 1999 13. Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (2000), KAEMP Progress Status Report for the 4th quarter of the year 2000 14 Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (2001), KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 30th September 2001 15 Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (2002), KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 30th June 2002 16 Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government (2002), KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 31th September 2002

52

Appendix 2 FARM AND HOUSEHOLD M ODELS

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA - IFAD/BSF-JP KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT - INTERIM EVALUATION IMPLEMENTATION RESULTS

Table 1 Base Data for Farm and Household Models

Yield/Use Intercrop Pure Stand Outputs Notes Unit Appraisal Value Appraisal Base Improved Base Improved TZS TZS kg/acre kg/ac Banana kg 66 20 1619 4500 12000 na na Coffee - dry cherry kg 378 90 101 250 320 270 400 Beans - dry pulses kg 192 200 101 200 300 250 400 Maize - dry grain kg 90 120 304 250 430 450 600 Cassava - fresh root kg 54 35 1538 1000 1600 2000 2800 Sweet Potato kg ? 50 na 1200 1800 2200 3000

Seed Cotton (average) kg 240 170 251 na na 1000 1500

Tree Seedlings unit 66 100 6500/yr na 8500 Poles unit 600 1000:5000 55/yr7 na 160x4 Mature Trees unit ? 70000 na 160

Inputs

Seeds: Beans (traditional) kg 162 250 6 or 12 20 20 20 20

53

Beans (improved) kg 210 300 6 or 12 20 20 20 20 Maize (trad) kg 84 100 10 10 10 10 10 Maize (improved) kg 90 120 10 10 10 10 10 Cotton (trad) kg 300 350 15 15 15 Cotton (improved) kg 600 500 15 15 15

Tree Seeds plant 15 2

Plants/Cuttings: Cassava (trad) ac ? own use Cassava (cmd new) ac na Sweet Potato ac ? own use Banana (trad) sucker ? 100 440 Banana (improved) sucker ? 150 440

Farmyard Manure trip 40000 Inorganic Fertiliser kg 270 400 Chemical Pesticides (av applicn) ac cotton only 10000 10000 Polypots kg 3300 3500 1kg=625plants for cotton, beans, Bags piece 270 500 maize

adult Labour day 330 700 (unskilled) 1000 (skilled)

Note: Yields for lowland, annual crops system for field crops, except cotton, assumed to be 80% of upland, perennial system for model, see Table 2b

54

Appendix 3: GUIDING FRAMEWORK FOR IM PACT EVALUATION

MAIN Key Questions for Impact Assessment in Rural Assessment of change Reach of change Assessment Dynamic Sustain- DOMAINS Communities Affected by the Project (changes to (1) (3) of Project Processes ability OF IMPACT which the project has contributed Contribu- Triggered by the Potential tion (2) Project** (4) *** (5) Presence What has changed (Indicators) Extent of How many Who and Change (house- (Poor/ Direct. (Rating) holds and poorest/ 4/3/2/1 4/3/2/1 4/3/2/1 of * people) better change 4/3/2/1 of) (+) (0) (-) I. 1.1 Did farm households physical assets change (i.e. Farm size, # livestock, woodlots, ox Physical and farmland, water, livestock, trees, equipment, etc.)? + carts 2 15% 60% 3 3 2 financial 1.2 Did other household assets change (houses, Quality of houses, roofs, bicycles, assets bicycles, radios other durables, etc.) + radio, tools, 2 15% 60% 3 3 2 furniture, clothing 1.3 Did infrastructure and people access to markets Crop prices of crops, easy access to change? (transport, roads, storage, communication + markets 2 25% 60% 3 2 1 facilities, etc.) 1.4 Did households’ financial assets change? (savings + Income++ bank a/cs, 2 20% 60% and debts) debt down good food, children go 3 2 2 to school, afford med services 1.5 Did rural people access to financial services Bank a/cs, SGAs, IPM group change? (credit, saving, insurances, etc.) + network 2 7% 30% 2 2 1 1.6 Did the extent of security in access to assets + Same as 1.5 1 5% 30% 2 1 1 change? 1.7 Other change in physical & financial assets of rural people? II. 2.1 Did children nutritional status change? + Access to food, decrease of Human malnourished children assets 2 10% 30% 2 3 3 2.2 Did people access to potable water change? 0 2.3 Did access to basic health and disease prevention + Availability of mosquito nets, road 2 5% 30% 1 1 2 services change? access health units awareness malaria 2.4 Did the incidence of HIV infection change? N/A 2.5 Did maternal mortality change? 0 2.6 Did access to primary education change? + Increase in enrolment 2 15% 50% 2 1 2 2.7 Did primary school enrolment for girls change? + Increase in girls enrolment 2 15% 50% 2 1 2

55

2.8 Did women and children workload change? negligib Woodlots, stoves, water tanks le 2.9 Did adult literacy rate and/or access to information + Trainings, radio progs, better extn, and knowledge change? group work 3 25% 60% 3 3 3 2.10 Did people professional skills change? + Improved agric practices, new 3 25% 60% 3 3 3 techn- ology 2.11 Other changes in human assets? + # of women leading groups, self help spirit, farmer district staff 2 10% 40% 3 2 3 relations III. 3.1 Did rural people organisations and institutions + IPM/IPN & Social capital change? Women groups, and people SGAs 3 20% 20% 3 2 2 empower- 3.2 Did social cohesion and local self–help capacity of Village par-ticipation ment rural communities change? 3.3 Did gender equity and/or womens’ conditions + Access to property, leadership 2 10% 25% 2 2 3 change? positions 3.4 Did rural people feel empowered vis a vis local Community based plans and national public authorities and development + 3 15% 40% 3 3 2 partners? (Do t hey play more effective role in decision making?) 3.5 Did rural producers feel empowered vis a vis the Market via groups, bulk buy inputs market place? Are they in better control of inputs 0 supply and marketing of their products? 3.6 Did migration out of the area change? N/A 3.7 Did access to information and knowledge change? Training, technology transfer, better extension 3.8 Other changes in social capital (e.g. more equitable access to assets in general) IV. 4.1 Did farming technology and practices change? + new simple agric. tech, 3 25% 60% 3 3 3 Food practices, fym, compost, Security organics (Production, 4.2 Did agricultural production change (area, yield, + Increased yields, ++ area under 3 25% 60% 3 3 3 Income and production mix, etc.)? cultivation, vanilla, pineapple Consump- 4.3 Did non-farm activities/employment/income + No. kiosks, trade surp produce, tree 2 7% 20% 2 3 3 tion) opportunities change? nursry 4.4 Did household real income and/or consumption As 1.1 and 1.2. level and pattern change? + 2 20% 60% 3 2 3 4.5 Did the frequency of food shortage change? + Surplus, diversification of crops, 3 25% 60% 3 3 3 improved planting materials, practices 4.6 Did household food security change?

56

V. 5.1 Did the natural resource base status change (land, # of trees planted, nurseries, wood Environment water, forest, pasture, fish stocks…)? + lots, w hyacinth control 2 15% 40% 3 3 3 & common 5.2 Did the environment change? + Tree planting, contouring, by-laws 2 10% 30% 2 2 2 resource base on bush fires 5.3 Other change in the environment?

VI. 6.1 Did rural financial institutions change? + SGAs, new credit plan 2 5% 10% 3 3 2 Institutions, 6.2 Did local public institutions and service provision + Application of LFA, district dept 2 20% 40% 2 3 2 policies, and change? capability + farmer cadre extn regulatory 6.3 Did national/sectoral policies affecting the rural N/A framework poor change? 6.4 Did the regulatory framework affecting the rural N/A poor change? 6.5 Other change in institutions and policies? N/A

57

MAIN Key Questions for Impact Assessment in Rural Expectation/ Effectiveness Rating (achievement against Innov. Replica Repli- DOMAINS Communities Affected by the Project (changes to (Project stated objectives) stated objectives) Approa- bility cation OF IMPACT which the project has contributed (6) 4/3/2/1 ches in Poten- (7) achieving tial 4/3/2/1 impact (10) 4/3/2/1 4/3/2/1 (8) (9) Change Change Reach Reach Change Change Reach Reach what? how how who? what? how how who? much? many? much? many? I. 1.1 Did farm households physical assets change (i.e. Physical and farmland, water, livestock, trees, equipment, etc.)? financial 1.2 Did other household assets change (houses, 3 for 3 for 3 for assets bicycles, radios other durables, etc.) Agricultur Agric & Agric & e & Envirmt Envirmt Environm ent 1.3 Did infrastructure and people access to markets Rural roads 346.4 Not All 1for 1 for 1 for change? (transport, roads, storage, communication km stated 3 3 3 3 Health , Health , Health , facilities, etc.) roads Road & Road & Road & improve Water Water Water d 1.4 Did households’ financial assets change? (savings and debts) 1.5 Did rural people access to financial services change? (credit, saving, insurances, etc.) 1.6 Did the extent of security in access to assets change? 1.7 Other change in physical & financial assets of rural people? II. 2.1 Did children nutritional status change? Human Assets

2.2 Did people access to potable water change? 2 3 2 2.3 Did access to basic health and disease prevention Prevent Access 27,000 All (3 for services change? malaria to hh 2 2 2 2 Agric & mosquit Environm o nets ent) 2.4 Did the incidence of HIV infection change?

58

2.5 Did maternal mortality change? 2.6 Did access to primary education change? 2.7 Did primary school enrolment for girls change? 2.8 Did women and children workload change? 2.9 Did adult literacy rate and/or access to information and knowledge change? 2.10 Did people professional skills change? 2.11 Other changes in human assets? III. 3.1 Did rural people organisations and institutions IPM/IPN Capacit Social capital change? groups y , and people cohesio 200 All 3 3 3 4 empower- n groups ment 3.2 Did social cohesion and local self–help capacity of rural communities change? 3.3 Did gender equity and/or womens’ conditions change? 3.4 Did rural people feel empowered vis a vis local 2 3 1 and national public authorities and development partners? (Do they play more effective role in decision making?) 3.5 Did rural producers feel empowered vis a vis the market place? Are they in better control of inputs supply and marketing of their products? 3.6 Did migration out of the area change? 3.7 Did access to information and knowledge change? 3.8 Other changes in social capital (e.g. more equitable access to assets in general) IV. 4.1 Did farming technology and practices change? Food security 4.2 Did agricultural production change (area, yield, (Production, production mix, etc.)? Income and 4.3 Did non-farm activities/employment/income Consump- opportunities change? tion) 4.4 Did household real income and/or consumption 3 3 2 level and pattern change? 4.5 Did the frequency of food shortage change? 4.6 Did household food security change? V. 5.1 Did the natural resource base status change (land, Rate of Tree Environment water, forest, pasture, fish stocks…)? deforestation planting and Wood 2 2 2 2 common saving 3500 hh All resource base stoves 5.2 Did the environment change? As above 3 3 2

59

5.3 Other change in the environment? VI. 6.1 Did rural financial institutions change? Institutions, 6.2 Did local public institutions and service provision 3 3 2 policies, and change? regulatory 6.3 Did national/sectoral policies affecting the rural framework poor change? 6.4 Did the regulatory framework affecting the rural poor change? 6.5 Other change in institutions and policies? * Rating: 4= High; 3= Substantial; 2= Modest; 1= Negligible *** Rating: 4= Highly likely, 3= Likely; 2= Unlikely; 1= Highly Unlikely. ** This refers to cases where even though impact achievement is modest or negligible, the project in question has set in motion dynamic positive processes that will eventually lead to substantial impact achievement. The identification of the existence of these processes is left to the evaluators judgement on a case by case basis.

60

Appendix 4

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS

Table 1 Project Costs at Appraisal Table 2 Project Costs at Implementation Table 3 Costs at Implementation against Actual Cumulative Expenditure Figures Table 4 Financing of Cumulative Expenditure as at 30 September 2002 Table 5 Component Expenditure as at 30 September 2002 Table 6 Project Expenditure by Financiers as at 30 September 2002 Table 7 Analysis of BSF Grant Exchange Rate Fluctuation Table 8 Analysis of IFAD Loan SDR Exchange Fluctuation Table 9 Analysis of Movement of OPEC Loan Table 10 Statement of Available Funds as at 30 September 2002 Table 11 Category Mix of Available Funds Table 12 Projected Project Expenditure Accounts Table 13 Projected Component Costs from 1 October to end PY6 Table 14 Projected Total Project Component Costs Table 15 Project Funding by Financiers 1 October to end PY6 Table 16 Final Project Funding by Financiers

Attachment:

Detailed Statements of Expenditure and Disbursement

61

Foreign Exchange

At the time of preparation/appraisal, the project was evaluated and presented in USD terms at an exchange rate of 1USD to 600 Tanzanian shillings. As at 30th September 2002, review of the disbursement accounts indicate the following exchange rates:

· Local Cash Book Transactions USD 1 to TZS 995 · IFAD Transactions USD 1 to TZS 829 · BSF Transactions USD 1 to TZS 784 · OPEC Fund Transactions USD 1 to TZS 845

Weighted average foreign exchange rate for all transactions to 30th September 2002 is assessed at USD 1 to TZS 800. For the Financial Analysis, this rate is applied to all historical transactions, unless actual data relating to the transaction is sourced.

During the time of evaluation, the official bank rate was 1 USD to 987 TZS while the informal market 1 USD was equivalent to 1,000 TZS. Projections on all transactions to the end of the project disbursement period set at a rate of 1 USD to 1,000 TZS.

Projected Costs at Appraisal

Project expected expenditure at appraisal, including contingencies is summarised as follows:

Table 1: Project Costs at Appraisal

Total Projected PY1 to PY5 USD ‘000 % Project USD ‘000 % Project % Exp Cost Cost Account Investment Costs Civil Works 5 849.9 32% 5 524.9 34% 95% Vehicles 695.9 4% 695.9 4% 100% Equip/Materials 2 638.3 15% 2 296.3 14% 87% Suppliers Credit 3 500.0 19% 3 500.0 21% 100% T.A 1 423.8 8% 1 186.5 7% 83% Training/Studies 1 431.8 8% 1 193.2 7% 80% Sub Total 15 539.2 86% 14 396.8 87% 93% Recurrent Costs Salaries/Allowances 966.5 5% 805.4 5% 83% O &M 1 535.2 9% 1 279.3 8% 83% Sub Total 2 501.7 14% 2 084.7 13% 83% Total Project Costs 18 040.9 100% 16 481.5 100% 92%

Total Project Costs at Appraisal, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 to TZS 600, including contingencies, was estimated at USD 18.04m (TZS 10 824.0m). Civil Works USD 5.85m (TZS 3 510m) or 32% of Total Project Costs; Equipment/Materials USD 2.64m (TZS 1 584m) or 15% of Total Project Costs; and Suppliers Credit USD 3.50m (TZS 2 100m) or 19% of Total Project Costs, together represented two thirds of Total Project Expenditure. By the end of PY5 it was envisaged that USD 16.5m (TZS 9 889m) or 92% of Total Project Costs would be disbursed.

Project Costs at Implementation

Prior to implementation, the OPEC fund agreed to the funding of rural trunk roads. As a consequence project management costed the regional and trunk road sub component for inclusion in the appraisal report thereby revising Total Project Costs. Unfortunately financial data relating to the revised draw

62

down of the OPEC fund was not reflected in the Appraisal Report. Project expenditure at implementation recognising the co financing of OPEC as well as PIM adjustments was as follows:

Table 2: Project Costs at Implementation

Total Projected PY1 to PY5 USD ‘000 % Project USD ‘000 % Project % Exp Cost Cost Account Investment Costs Civil Works 10 571 44% 10 426.0 47% 99% Vehicles 1 284 5% 1 284.0 6% 100% Equip/Materials 2 822 12% 2 480.0 11% 88% Supplier Credit 3 500 15% 3 500.0 16% 100% T.A 1 497 6% 1 186.5 5% 79% Training/Studies 1 585 7% 1 193.2 5% 75% Sub Total 21 260 88% 20 069.7 90% 94% Recurrent Costs Salaries/Allowances 1 022 4% 805.4 4% 79% O&M 1 837 8% 1 279.3 6% 70% Sub Total 2 859 12% 2 084.7 10% 73% Total Project Costs 24 119 100% 22 154.4 100% 92%

The revised Project cost, which included increased expenditure on civil works, vehicles, equipment and materials, increased the total to USD24.12m (TZS 19 295m) this figure including contingencies and taxes.

Project Expenditure as at 30th September 2002.

By the time of the visit of the Mission, Project management had prepared Project accounts up to 30th September 2002. Project Implementation cost figures are compared with cumulative expenditure as at 30th September 2002 and the results are as follows:

Table 3: Costs at Implementation against Actual Cumulative Figures

Total Project Costs CUMULATIVE EXPENDITURE TO 30TH SEPTEMBER 2002. USD ‘000 % Project USD ‘000 % Project % Exp Cost Cost Account Investment Costs Civil Works 10 571 44% 9 620 52% 91% Vehicles 1 284 5% 1 301 7% 101% Equip/Materials 2 822 12% 1 789 10% 64% Supplier Credit 3 500 15% 250 1% 7% T.A 1 497 6% 1 280 7% 86% Training/Studies 1 585 7% 990 5% 63% Sub Total 21 260 88% 15 230 82% 72% Recurrent Costs Sala ries/Allowances 1 022 4% 1 280 7% 125% O&M 1 837 8% 2 200 11% 120% Sub Total 2 859 12% 3 480 18% 122% Total Project Costs 24 119 100% 18 710 100% 78%

63

The analysis suggests that 78% or USD 18.71m of Total Project Costs have been disbursed, including an allowance for Government contribution through taxes foregone. While 122% or USD 3.48m of the recurrent budget has been disbursed, 72% of the investment costs estimated at USD 15.23m have been drawn down.

Of the major investment expenditure accounts, the vehicle account is fully allocated, while 64% of the project expenditure account attributed to Equipment and Materials has been disbursed. Disbursements from Civil Works, TA, Training and Studies expenditure accounts are between 63 and 86%. Training and Studies are on-going for the duration of the project.

Draw-down on the Supplier Credit expenditure account indicates significant constraints in the implementation of this input. These constraints have been addressed properly by management as the disbursements of the credits have picked up following effectiveness of collaboration arrangements with a local bank in the operationalization of the fund.

The Mid-term Review that was carried out during the year 2001 recommended reallocation of expenditure for disbursement accounts. Management prepared the reallocation proposal that was approved by financiers towards the end of year 2001. Following the fact that by that time the loan and grant accounts had suffered losses due to exchange rate fluctuations, available funding on the loan account dropped from USD 14.83m to USD 13.48m; and the grant dropped from USD 2.5m to USD 1.92m. Cumulative project cost as at 30th September when compared to the above figures gives the following results:

64

CUMULATIVE EXP UP TO 30TH FINANCING PLAN UP TO 30TH SEPTEMBER 2002 COMPON SEPTEMBER 2002 -ENTS OF GOV COST IFA OP OPE / TOT TOT ITEMS APP3 BSF IFAD BSF IFAD BSF OPEC D 2 EC C BEN AL ALS . Civil 4.88 10.00 0.90 3.90 4.27 0.80 3.37 1.16 9.62 87.50 89.00 86.41 96.20 Works Vehicle, equipment 1.79 3.32 0.65 0.20 1.68 0.68 0.13 0.60 3.09 93.85 104.62 65.00 93.07 & materials Incremental supplies 0.93 1.0 0.03 - 0.20 0.05 - 0.01 0.25 21.50 166.67 - 25.00 credit Consultanc 1.47 1.55 - - 1.28 0 - 0 1.28 87.08 - - 82.58 y services Training 1.05 1.44 0.14 - 0.79 0.14 - 0.06 0.99 75.23 100.00 - 68.75 and studies Salaries and 1.29 2.64 0.05 - 1.23 0.05 - 0 1.28 95.35 100.00 - 48.49 allowances. Other oper. 149.6 1.81 1.47 0.15 - 1.65 0.16 - 0.39 2.20 91.16 106.67 - Expenses. 6

Total 13.48 22.21 1.92 4.10 11.10 1.88 3.50 2.22 18.71 82.34 97.92 85.37 84.24

Table 4: Financing of Cumulative Expenditure as at 30th September 2002 (see above)

Notes : 2 From detailed financing plan or appraisal ; 3 From financing plan / appraisal report (includes non IFAD financing).

Component Expenditure.

Of the Total Revised PIM Project Cost of USD 24.12m including contingencies and tax, 52% or USD 12.57m is allocated to Rural Infrastructure re emphasising the focus on civil works construction especially rural roads. 8% or USD1.85m is attributed to Environmental Management. The Project Facilitation and Monitoring Unit responsible for implementing the project is allocated USD 2.28m to administer the project.

Table 5: Component Expenditure as at 30 September 2002

Total Actual 30th September 2002. USD % Total USD % Total % Component ‘000 Cost ‘000 Cost Account Agricultural Development 3 910 16% 2 926 16% 75% Supplier Credit 3 500 15% 250 1% 7% Environmental Management 1 855 8% 1 287 7% 70% Rural Infrastructure 12 575 52% 11 891 64% 95% PFMU 2 279 9% 2 356 12% 103% Total Cost 24,119 100% 18 710 100% 78%

65

As at the end of September 2002, the Agricultural Development Component excluding Suppliers Credit, had drawn down USD 2.926m or 75% of the funds allocated to the component. The Environmental Management Component had drawn down USD 1.287m or 70% of the components allocated funds while the Rural Infrastructure Component had drawn down USD 11.891m or 95% of funds allocated to upgrading rural infrastructure. The PFMU (Regional and District) by the end of the financial year had drawn down USD 2.356m, which exceeds by 3% the limit of funds allocated to PFMU component according to PIM. The contributing factors to this excessive draw down include: · An understatement of personnel and O&M costs when the project was reviewed prior to implementation (PIM) · Government doubled field allowances in PY2 · The cost of fuel has increased considerably since PIM

Project Expenditure by Financiers as Appraised

The appraised Project Cost of USD 24.12m was to be funded through a commitment from IFAD of USD 14.83m, a commitment from OPEC of USD 4.10m and a commitment from the Belgium Survival Fund (BSF) of USD 2.50m. The balance would be funded through the Government of Tanzania waiving of taxes and cash contribution, together estimated at USD 2.06m; and beneficiary contributions estimated at USD 0.62m.

Table 6: Project Expenditure by Financiers as at 30th September 2002

Total 30th September 2002 USD % Total USD % Total % Loan Million Cost m Cost Account IFAD 14.83 62% 11.10 59% 75% BSF 2.50 10% 1.88 10% 75% OPEC 4.10 17% 3.50 19% 86% GOT/Govt 2.06 8% 1.72 9% 83% Beneficiaries 0.62 3% 0.50 3% 81% Total Cost 24.12 100% 18.71 100% 78%

As at the end of September 2002, IFAD had funded 59% of total cumulative Project Costs or USD 11.10m, this being some 75% of the IFAD original commitment. BSF at the same time had funded 10% of Total Project Cost or USD 1.88m, this being 75% of the BSF original commitment in USD terms. OPEC had funded 19% of Total Project Costs or USD 3.5m the equivalent of 86% of the OPEC commitment. The Government of Tanzania contribution, at USD 1.72m represented 9% of Total Project Costs or 83% of the suggested government contribution. Beneficiary contributions estimated at USD 0.5m represented the balance of Total Project Costs or 81% of beneficiary commitment.

Exchange Rate Fluctuation

Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on BSF Disbursement Account.

At PIM the BSF account was estimated in USD but nominated in the loan agreement in Belgium Francs at an exchange rate of BEF 31.34 to USD 1. At PIM, the USD 2.50m allocated to the BSF disbursement account was equivalent of BEF 78m or TZS. 1 500m. While the Belgium Franc and the Tanzanian Shilling have moved relative to each other, at around TZS 19.5 to BEF 1, both currencies have weakened against the USD. Exchange rate movements relative to the USD since 1997 have had the following impact: · The weighted average exchange rate BEF to USD 1 over the period up to 30th September was BEF 37.91 to USD 1.

66

· The weighted average exchange rate TZS to USD 1 over the period up to the time of the Mission visit was TZS 784 to USD 1 this being the weighted exchange rate of all transactions from the Special Account to the Local Account. · The weighted exchange rate after considering transactions of direct expenditures from the Special Account increases to TZS 787 to USD 1. · Current actual exchange rate to the USD is BEF 41.02 and TZS 995.

The exchange rate fluctuation has the following implications on the Grant account.

Table 7: Analysis of BSF Grant Exchange Rate Fluctuation

BEF BEF Equivalent Equivalent TZS to in to USD in TZS in USD 1 million USD 1 million million PIM - Grant 78.35 31.34 2.50 1,500 600 Expenditure up to 30th 71.27 37.91 1.88 1.504 800 September 2002 Available balance 7.08 41.02 0.173 0.172 995

The amount available for disbursement on the grant account in dollar terms has been affected by the devaluation factor. As at 30th September 2002, USD 0.173m equivalent to TZS 172m is available for disbursement. In view of this, the grant has dropped from USD 2.5m to USD 2.052m, a decline of 18%.

Impact of Reduced BSF/JP Grant Funding

Since BSF cannot either commit additional funds or accept foreign exchange fluctuation risks, the available balance on the BSF disbursement account remains BEF 7.08m which at an exchange rate of BEF 41.02 to USD 1, equates to USD 0.173m. Given this level of available grant funds, project management has no alternative but to restrict further investment in activities funded by BSF/JP Grant to USD 0.173m for the remaining Project period.

The SDR Fluctuation Effect on the IFAD Loan

At PIM the IFAD loan account was estimated in USD but nominated in the loan agreement in SDR at an exchange rate of SDR 1 = USD 1.44623. At PIM the USD 14.83m allocated to the IFAD disbursement account was equivalent to SDR 10.3m. Exchange rate movements relative to the USD since 1997 have had the following impact: · The weighted average exchange rate of one SDR to USD over the period up to the time of the missions visit was one SDR to USD 1.2158 · The weighted average exchange rate TZS to USD over the period up to the time of the Mission visit was TZS 829 to USD 1 this being the weighted exchange rate of all transactions from the Special Account to the Local Account. · Actual exchange rate as at the time of the Mission visit was SDR 1 equals USD 1.239 and TZS 995 equals USD 1.

The IFAD loan statement of account was reconciled and statement figures are in agreement with Project records. As at 30th September 2002, the exchange rate variations of the SDR have the following implications on the Loan account.

67

Table 8: Analysis of IFAD Loan SDR Exchange Fluctuation.

SDR 1 SDR Equivalent Equivalent TZS to in to USD in TZS in USD million USD million million PIM - Loan 10.300 1.44623 14.83 8 898 600 Reconciled exp. as at 12th 9.061 1.2158 11.04 8 832 800 December 2002 Available balance 1.239 1.34005 1.661 1 653 995

In view of the above analysis, the amount available for disbursement on the Loan Account in dollar terms has been affected by the variation factor. As at 30th September 2002, USD 1.661m equivalent to TZS 1.653 billion is available for disbursement. In dollar terms, the Loan account dropped from USD 14.83m to USD 12.7m, a decline of over 14%.

The OPEC Loan

The OPEC loan is denominated in USD therefore it has no effect on disbursable amount. Withdrawal from the Loan Account terminates at the end of year five; thus the amount available for disbursement during project year five is as follows.

Table 9: Analysis of movement of OPEC Loan

USD in Equivalent TZS to Million TZS million USD PIM- Loan 4.100 2,460 600 Reconciled exp. as at 30th 3.500 2,800 800 September 2002 Available balance USD 0.600 0.597 995

The government has requested the Financier to extend time for withdrawing from the loan account up to the end of year six.

Statement of Available Funds as at 30th September 2002.

In view of the foregoing analysis, total available resources for the remaining Project life are as per the following table:

Table 10: Statement of Available Funds as at 30th September 2002. Figures in millions Financier Nomination Loan/ Drawn/ Available Drawn Available of Loan Grant Committed funds - Funds funds in Amount Amount Amount 30th in USD September USD 2002. IFAD SDR 10.300 9.061 1.239 11.040 1.661 BSF/JP BEF 78.350 71.270 7.080 1.880 0.173 OPEC USD 4.100 3.500 0.600 3.500 0.600 GOT USD 2.060 1.720 0.340 1.720 0.340 Beneficiaries USD 0.620 0.570 0.050 0.570 0.050 Totals 18.710 2.824

68

Following the above analysis of financing pattern, Project year six has available funds amounting to USD 2.824m equivalent to TZS 2.82 billion at the approximate projected exchange rate of TZS 998 to one USD. IFAD would inject USD 1.661m equivalent to 58.82% of anticipated project cost for the remaining period. OPEC would inject USD 0.600m equivalent to 21.25%, BSF/JP would inject USD 0.173m equivalent to 6.11 % and government would inject USD 0.34m, equivalent to 12.04%. Beneficiaries would inject USD 0.05m equivalent to 1.78% of anticipated Project costs for the remaining Project period.

Revised Project Costs

Projected Expenditure for Project Year Six

Table 11: Category Matrix of Available Funds Figures in USD millions Totals TOTAL IFAD BSF/JP OPEC GOT BENEF. EXP. YEAR 6

Investment cost Civil Works .496 .075 .541 .067 .050 1.229 Vehicles ------Equip/Materials .065 .093 .010 .189 - .357 Supplier Credit .598 - - .040 - .638 T.A .085 - - - - .085 Training/Studies .196 .005 .020 .020 - .241 Sub Total 1.440 .173 .571 .316 .050 2.550

Recurrent cost Salaries/Allowances 86 - .020 - - .106 O &M 135 - .009 .024 - .168 Sub Total 221 - .029 .024 - .274 Total Project Costs 1.661 0.173 0.600 0.340 .050 2.824

The summary of cost tables in Table 11, for projected Project Costs for PY6, including contingencies, show that they fall within the available financing of USD 2.824m. This figure recognises the effect of loan and grant losses resulting from exchange rate variations for the BEF and SDR denominations. Of the USD 2.824m, for Investment, USD 1.229m or 44% of projected Project Costs are attributed to Civil Works; USD 0.241m or 9% of projected Project Costs are attributed to Training/Studies; and USD 0.357m or 13% of projected Project Costs is attributed to Equipment and Materials. Incremental Recurrent Costs through to PY6 are assessed at USD 0.274m or 10% of projected Project Costs. Of this amount USD 0.106m or 4% is allocated to Salaries and Allowances, with the balance estimated at USD 0.168m allocated to O &M expenditure.

Projected Project Expenditure Accounts

Projected Project Expenditure Accounts can be summarised as follows:

69

Table 12: Projected Project Expenditure Accounts

Actual Projected PIM 30TH Projected Estimated Projected September Expenditure Final Project % of 2002 PY6 Cost PIM

Investment costs Civil Works 10 571 9 620 1 229 10 849 103 Vehicles 1 284 1 301 0 1 301 101 Equip/Materials 2 822 1 789 357 2 146 76 Supplier Credit 3 500 250 638 888 25 T.A 1 497 1 280 85 1 365 91 Training/Studies 1 586 990 241 1 231 78 Sub Total 21 260 15 230 2 550 17 780 84 Recurrent Costs Salaries/Allowances 1 022 1 280 106 1 386 136 O &M 1 837 2 200 168 2 368 129 Sub Total 2 859 3 480 274 3 754 131 Total Project Costs 24 119 18 710 2 824 21 534 89

The revised Total Project Cost including contingencies by PY 6 is now assessed at USD 21.534m or some 11% lower than PIM assessment. The projected analysis of Total Project Costs suggests marginal increases of 2.63% on Civil Works and 1.32% on Vehicles, Equipment and Material Expenditure Accounts. Technical Assistance suggests a decline of 8.8% and Training and Studies Expenditure Account suggests a decrease of 22.38%. Disbursements from the Suppliers Credit Expenditure Account are expected to be below those envisaged at PIM by 74.63%.

The recurrent costs are estimated at USD 3.754m by end of PY6. The analysis suggests that salaries and allowances will increase to USD 1.386m, a 35.62% increase over the PIM estimate. Government increased allowances by 100% in 1999 thus PIM estimates were overtaken by the decision. At the same time, O &M costs associated with vehicles and office maintenance suggest an increase to USD 2.368m, or 28.91% over the PIM estimate.

Revised Component Costs

Of the projected Project Costs assessed at USD2.824m, USD 0.41m or 14% would be allocated to the Agricultural Development Component; USD 0.142m or 5% would be allocated to the Environmental Management Component; USD 1.386m or 49% would be allocated to Rural Infrastructure; while the PFMU (Regional and District) would receive USD 0.498m or 18% of projected Project Costs.

Table 13: Projected Component Costs from 1st October to end PY6

Total USD % Total Project ‘000 Costs Agricultural Development 410 14 % Incremental credit 388 14% Environmental Management 142 5 % Rural Infrastructure 1 386 49 % PFMU 498 18 % Total Cost 2 824 100%

70

Projected Total Project Component Expenditure

Total projected Project Component Expenditure can be summarised as follows:

Table 14: Projected Total Project Component Costs

Actual USD’000 Projected USD ‘000 At PIM At 30th Projected Estimated Total Projected September Expenditure Project Cos ts % of 2002. 1st Oct 2002 PIM to end PY6

Agricultural 3 910 2 926 410 3 336 86% Development Suppliers 3 500 250 388 638 19% credit Environmental 1 855 1 287 142 1 429 77% Management Rural 12 575 11 891 1 386 13 277 106% Infrastructure PFMU 2 279 2 356 498 2 854 125% Total Cost 24 119 18 710 2 824 21 534 89%

The Rural Infrastructure Component at USD 13.277m will surpass the PIM allocation by 6% and the Project Facilitation component at USD 2.854m suggests an increase over the budgeted PIM allocation of 25%. The Agricultural Development Component at USD 3.336m shows a decrease of 14% over the budgeted PIM allocation. The increase in the PFMU allocation reflects the increase in recurrent costs that have, and will be, incurred. The Supplier Credit sub component has been scaled down to the capacity level. Scaling down the expenditure on the agricultural component is a result of formation of seed growers associations and privatisation of the seed production and marketing whereby the Project shall only facilitate training of farmers groups and associations. No major procurement of seed from farmers shall be undertaken and inputs shall be loaned from the revolving fund held at TPB.

The new input credit scheme has been scaled down for the following major reasons: · Input utilisation in Kagera is at low levels; now, the tendency is to go organic farming. · Farmers associations are in a consolidation stage; management do not anticipate substantial credit absorption from these groups. · The general low-income levels of the community in Kagera limit farmers expenditure on inputs and equipment. · Marketing structure is yet to be developed in the region and there are very limited input outlets.

Project Funding

Project Funding by Financiers from 1st October to end of PY6

In accordance with the funding arrangements at PIM, the projected Project Costs for the remaining period 1st October 2002 through to the end f PY6, totalling some USD2.824m is summarised below:

71

Table 15: Project Funding by Financiers 1st October to end PY6 (USD m)

Category Total IFAD BSF OPEC Govt Beneficiaries Investment costs Civil Works 1.229 .496 .075 .541 .067 .050 Vehicles 0 - - - - - Equipment /Materials .357 .065 .093 .010 .189 - Supplier Credit .638 .598 - - .040 - T.A. .085 .085 - - - - Training/Studies .241 .196 .005 .020 .020 - Total Investment Costs 2.550 1.440 .173 .571 .316 .050

Recurrent costs Salaries and Allowances .106 .086 - .020 - - O &M Costs .168 .135 - .009 .024 - Total recurrent costs .274 .221 - .029 .024 -

Total disbursements 2.824 1.661 0.173 0.600 0.340 0.050 % Total Disbursements 100 59 6 22 12 1

Under an indicative funding arrangement based on the criteria used at PIM it is envisaged that IFAD would fund some USD 1.661m or 59% of the remaining projected expenditure; BSF USD 0.173m or 6%; the OPEC Fund USD 0.600m or 22%; Government USD 0.340m or 12%; and Project beneficiaries the balance of 1%.

Final Project Funding by Financiers

The Final Total Project Funding by Financiers based on the position as at 30th September 2002 and the projected funding requirements through to end of PY 6 can be summarised as follows:

Table 16: Final Project Funding by Financiers (USD m)

Actual Projected

At At Projected Estimated Projected Financier PIM Mission Expenditure Total % of review- Actual 1st October Project Cost PIM 30th Sept. 2002 to end 2002 PY6

IFAD 14.83 11.04 1.661 12.701 86 % BSF 2.50 1.88 .173 2.053 82 % OPEC 4.10 3.50 .600 4.100 100 % GOT/Govt 2.06 1.72 .340 2.06 100 % Beneficiaries 0.62 0.57 .050 .62 100 % Total Cost 24.12 18.71 2.824 21.534 89 %

Based on these indicative projections, the IFAD disbursement accounts in dollar terms have declined by 14%, the BSF disbursement account is down by 17% while the OPEC, government and beneficiary disbursements are within the PIM projections.

72

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT - KAEMP LOANS AND GRANT NOS: IFAD LOAN: NO. 433-TZ REF: 03880-TA NO. OPEC LOAN: 687P BSF/JP GRANT: NO.26-TZ REF. NO.03990-TA STATEMENT OF EXPENDITURE UP TO 30TH SEPTEMBER, 2002 - SUMMARIZED BY MAIN CATEGORIES

EXPENDITURE 1ST CUMMULATIVE CUMMULATIVE REALLOCATED DESCRIPTION CATEGORY JAN TO 30TH EXPENDITURE UP TO 30TH EXPENDITURE UP TO PROJECT % OF SEPTEMBER, 2002. SEPTEMBER, 2002 31ST DECEMBER, 2001 EXPENDITURE CUMMUL. EXPEND. TO REALLOCATED T.Shs in EXP.. T.Shs '000' US$ T.Shs '000' US$ T.Shs '000' US$ Billion US$

2 116 2 563 7 699 9 619 5 901 7 281 10 Civil works 1 740 058 897 814 600 510 8.722 903 88.23 49 45 2 473 3 089 2 288 3 042 3 Vehicle, Equip. & Materials 2 169 426 033 705 625 438 3.040 880 79.63 - 1 199 249 141 193 Incremental Suppliers credit 3 - 462 294 019 495 538 0.613 766 32.51 199 229 1 024 1 279 821 1 045 1 Consultants Services 4 303 397 443 899 673 805 1.182 477 86.66 148 171 792 989 733 923 1 Training and Studies 5 645 804 338 861 388 503 1.022 278 77.45 177 200 1 024 1 279 875 1 114 1 Salaries and Allowances 6 655 941 394 855 226 490 1.097 371 93.35 329 378 1 762 2 201 1 435 1 823 2 Other Operating Costs 7 219 833 415 849 387 451 2.008 510 87.72

TOTAL 3 020 3 587 14 975 18 710 731 997 814 002 12 197 394 15 424 735 17.68 22 185 84.34 We certify the above amounts have been paid for proper execution of the project activities within the terms and conditions of Loan Agreements. All documents authenticating these expenditures have been retained in Project Facilitation Unit in Kagera and will be made an available for review by auditors and visiting Missions upon request.

73

74

Appendix 5

SUMMARY PHYSICAL ACHIEVEMENTS

No Component/Activity Unit Total % of Target 1 Project Area Coverage Villages No 300 159 Households No 190 000 111 Population No 1 140 000 111

2 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IPM/IPN Farmer Working Groups No 200 100 IPM/IPN members No 6 000 100

Production of improved seeds/planting materials: Beans Kg 102 993 130 Maize Kg 32 828 513 Banana Suckers 276 000 110 Cassava Cuttings 1 104 337 88 Clonal coffee Cuttings 439 405 83

Farmers/households adopting improved crop management technologies: IPM/IPN farmer working group members No 6 000 Other adopters for respective principal crops: Beans No 4 911 Maize No 5 838 Banana No 1 083 Clonal coffee No 362 Sweet potatoes No 2 000

Seed Growers Associations (SGAs) Formed No 24 100 Registered No 18 75 SGA-Members female No 269 SGA-Members male No 730

Credit Disbursement TZS million 200 7 Beneficiaries No 160

3 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Farmers operating tree nurseries No 415 Groups operating tree nurseries No 426 Communal and individual afforestation ha 1 328 121 Households using improved wood saving stoves No 1 808 52

75

No Component/Activity Unit Total % of Target 4 RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE 4.1 Health Households using impregnated mosquito nets No 16 600 61

4.2 Water Supply Population getting clean and safe water No 112 051 74 Population getting clean and safe water % 21.6

4.3 Rural Access Roads Rehabilitated roads-Regional roads Km 124 100 Rehabilitated roads-District roads Km 346.4 100

5.0 CAPACITY BUILDING Training: Agricultural Development: Village Extension Officers No 131 101 District staff No 88 100 Farmers trained in seed/planting production technology No Farmers producing improved beans No 1 761 22.3 Farmers producing improved maize No 761 43 Farmers maintaining disease free banana nurseries No 397 11 Farmers maintaing cassava nurseries resistant to CMD No 152 Farmers maintaining clonal coffee nurseries and mother No 161 43 gardens

Management skills for SGAs – Leaders No 144 100

Environmental Management: Forestry staff No 26 100 Farmers trained on nursery establishment No 2 916 Village leaders and farmers trained on land management No 2 647 and soil conservation

Water District Water Staff (engineers and technicians) No 18 100 Water User Group members No 1 050

Roads: Road Engineers No 4 100 Village Road Committee members No 456 100 Village youths No 760 100

76

No Component/Activity Unit Total % of Target Health: Training of trainers (TOT)-District medical personnel. No 25 100 District /dispensary staff No 235 27 Community health workers No 708 29 Village Health Committee members No 15,781 32

Monitoring and Evaluation: District /Regional staff Participatory Rural Appraisal No 65 Logical Framework Approach No 20 M&E No 18

Gender Mainstreaming: District and Regional staff No 70 100 Village leaders No 190 100 Women group No 6 100 SGA members No 10 100 Village Road Committee members No 6 100

77

78

Appendix 6

KAGERA AGRICULTUR AL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT-KAEMP LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE MEANS OF VERIFICATION IMPORTANT INDICATORS ASSUMPTIONS The Goal: The living standard of the people in Kagera Region significantly increased Project Purpose: 1. Changes in productivity over time. Use -Interview schedule Food security, cash income and health -Questionnaire levels of the poor household families 2. Changes in profit margin levels -Semi Structured in the KAEMP project areas in overtime. Interview (SSI) Bukoba rural, Muleba, Karagwe, -Tables(tabular Biharamulo and Ngara Districts 3. Adoption/diffusion rate. format) sustainably increased. Select Key variables on: 4. Changes in inputs and output prices. -Output 1-9 -Activities as per 5. Changes in effective protection of the AWP&B. village environment. Case study. On -spot survey 6. Changes in the standard of houses.

7. Possession of household assets e.g. radios, bicycles.

8. Changes from home savings to bank savings

9. Changes in the household food stress periods.

10. Changes in control of project benefits

79

NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE MEANS OF VERIFICATION IMPORTANT INDICATORS ASSUMPTIONS Project Component: Agriculture 1. Increased productivity level Use -Interview schedule The rain seasons in the region Output 1 2. Increased levels of profitability -Questionnaire remains conducive Crop management and crop 3. Increased profit margin per crop -Semi Structured diversification improved 4. Yield increase Interview (SSI) 5. Amount of money saved for using -Tables(tabular biological means in controlling plant format) pests and increasing plant nutrients Selection of key variables on:- 6. Increased proportion of village groups Output 1 practicing IPM/IPN techniques -Activities as per AWP&B. Annual extension report available at DALDO's office Output 2 1.0Increased rate of germination to about 90% Use -Interview schedule Quality seed production and 2.0Increased proportion of village farmers -Questionnaire distribution sustainably promoted producing quality seeds -Semi Structured 3 .0 Percentage of farmers using quality seed Interview (SSI) in the village increased -Tables(tabular format) Select Key variables on: -Output 2 -Activities as impact or case study. KAEMP progress reports

Output 3 1. Increased number of business people /SGAs Use -Interview schedule supplying agricultural inputs in the village -Questionnaire Agricultural input supply adequately 2. Percentage decrease in agro input prices -Semi Structured assured 3. Increased proportion of villagers with Interview (SSI) access to agro inputs -Tables(tabular format) Select Key variables on: -Output3 -Activities as per AWP&B. Annual extension report available at DALDO's offices

80

Project component:Environment 1. Time reduced by project beneficiaries in Use -Interview schedule management collecting firewood -Questionnaire Output 4 1. Vegetation cover in the project area -Semi Structured Participatory natural resource increased by 30% by June 2003 Interview (SSI) management approach effectively 2. Percentage reduction of water -Tables(tabular promoted hyacinth in Kagera River and lake format) Victoria (June 2002-40% and June Select Key variables on: 2003-70%) -Output 4 3. Use of wood fuel saving stoves -Activities as per increased AWP&B. .

KAGERA AGRICUL TURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT-KAEMP LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE MEANS OF VERIFICATION IMPORTANT INDICATORS ASSUMPTIONS Project component: rural 1. Increased proportion of villagers in the Use -Interview schedule infrastructure project area with mosquito nets distributed -Questionnaire Output 5 by KAEMP -Semi Structured Health service delivery improved 2. Reduced cases of malaria in project village Interview (SSI) 3. Reduced types and number of referral cases -Tables(tabular from health centres and dispensaries format) Select Key variables on: -Output 5 -Activities as per AWP&B. KAEMP progress reports Annual health records available at DMO,s office

Project component: rural 1. Average distance reduced for water Use -Interview schedule infrastructure collection -Questionnaire Output 6 2. Average time reduced for water collection -Semi Structured Farmers access to safe drinking water 1. Increased proportion of village households Interview (SSI) improved with access to clean and safe drinking water -Tables(tabular format) Select Key variables on:

81

-Output 6 -Activities as per AWP&B. KAEMP progress report

Project component: rural 1. Increased producer prices /growth in Use -Interview schedule Allocation of road infrastructure value of agricultural produce 7.2 -Questionnaire maintenance funds by the Output 7 Increased availability of -Semi Structured District Councils sustained and The network for rural access roads goods and services Interview (SSI) released timely. and main roads enhanced. 2. Decreased traveling time and -Tables(tabular transport costs format) 3. Increased kilometers of Select Key variables on: rehabilitated rural roads -Output 7 4. Presence of viable village -Activities as per road maintenance committee AWP&B. KAEMP progress report Annual report available at DALDOs office Road user interview Annual report available at District Licensing Board Reports available at the District Engineers office.

82

KAGERA AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PROJECT-KAEMP LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE MEANS OF VERIFICATION IMPORTANT INDICATORS ASSUMPTIONS Project component: Monitoring and 1.0Increased level of partnership between the Use -Interview schedule Evaluation project and district council government -Questionnaire Output 8 2. Improved capacity of district council in -Semi Structured Functional capacity of the district planning and conducting M& Interview (SSI) departments in agriculture, forestry, -Tables(tabular Water, Health and civil works format) enhanced Select Key variables on: -Output8 -Activities as per AWP&B. KAEMP progress report District annual reports available at DEDs office.

Project component: Monitoring and 1. Increased proportion of beneficiaries able to Use -Interview schedule Evaluation do participatory M&E or participatory impact -Questionnaire Output 9 M&E -Semi Structured Participatory approach in monitoring 2. Increased number of consultative (District Interview (SSI) and evaluation effectively promoted and workshops to solve identified problems) -Tables(tabular workshops format) Select Key variables on: -Output 9 -Activities as per AWP&B. KAEMP progress report User groups /village/District reports

83

84

Appendix 7

LIST OF PRINCIPAL CONTACTS AND DOCUMENTS

Key People Consulted

Presidents Office – Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG): Alfred Kabagire Programme Manager Local Government Reform Programme Julius Kanyasi Programme Officer Liaison Office

Vice Presidents Office – Planning and Privatisation: Clifford Tandari Officer (and Mission member)

Prime Ministers Office: Erad Mushi KAEMP/IFAD Liaison Officer

Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Wilfred Ngirwa Permanent Secretary Ms Janet Bitegeko Head Policy and Planning Department Ms Margaret Ndaba Policy and Planning Department Ms Anna Ngoo Agricultural Economist Policy and Planning Department Dr Nicodemus Sicilma Director Crops Department

Ministry of Finance: Peniel Lymo Permanent Secretary Adrian Njau Finance Management Officer IFAD Desk Officer Ms Joyce Mapunjo Commissioner for the External Sector

Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing: J P Kimati Officer

Ministry of Water and Livestock Development: M M Ndimbo Officer

United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS): Dele Ilebani IFAD Portfolio Manager Tanzania

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP): Christopher Mushi Programme Officer Poverty Reduction Ms Mary Kabatange Assistant Resident Representative Poverty, Environment and Gender Unit

Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO): Pierre Gence Resident Representative Justus Kabyewera Programme Officer

Embassy of Belgium: Marc Dennys Attache for International Cooperation Dirk Brems Attache for International Cooperation Ms Claudine Aelvoet Attache International Cooperation (BSF Regional Coordinator) Ms Rosemary Mpendazoe Programme Officer

Districts Rural Development Programme (Netherlands Assistance): Steven Hollevoet Adviser District Development Ngara and Biharamulo Antoon Vergroesen Adviser District Development Bukoba Rural

85

Kagera Agricultural and Environmental Management Project (KAEMP) Project Facilitation and Monitoring Unit (PFMU): Leopold Rweyemamu Project Facilitator Jovin Kangimba Financial Controller Ms Jane Fatukubonye Procurement Officer Eldom Anyosisye Monitoring and Evaluation Officer Bulili Sayi Assistant IPM/IPN Specialist Leonard Mukandala Assistant Regional Seed Production Officer Mechard Tiba Loans Officer Julianus Thomas Farmer Field Schools Coordinator

Kagera Regional Administration: General T Kiwelu Regional Commissioner Hussein Seif Regional Administrative Secretary

ARDI Maruku Research Station: Jackson Nkuba Officer in Charge Elia Marandu Research Officer

Karagwe District Council and Administration/KAEMP Karagwe: Ole Telele District Commissioner Samweli Mashindike District Executive Officer (DED) Salvatory Karabamu District Council Chairperson Frank Muganyizi District Project Facilitator Zacharia Nachoa District Planning Officer Buchard Kweyunga District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officer Rama Masele Forest and Beekeeping officer Joseph Kifigo IPM/IPN Coordinator Emmanuel Kawia District M&E Officer Samweli Stambuli District Seed Supervisor John Kasenene District Medical Officer Christopher Besisila Assistant District IPM/IPN Officer Eliesikia Mgheni District Forest Officer Bujune Burchard Divisional Extension Officer Abed Mtimba Ward Extension Officer

Karagwe Village Governments: Samuel Pesha Chairperson Katwe Village Paul Bwanakunu Chairperson Katere Village

Karagwe Farmers and Communities: Bernard and Valeria Barigi SGA group farmers/nursery Kihanga Village Theodore Kibombo Farmer and nurseryman Katembe Village Rafael and Liberata Salvatore Adopting farmers Katwe Village Rafael Reverian Adopting farmer Katwe Village Maulusia Gideon Adopting woman farmer Katwe Village Nason Kagoba Farmer and chair person of beekeeping group Katwe Village Emmanuel and Pudenciana Vedasto Farmers and IPM/IPN/SGA group members Katere Village Ephrem Colling Farmer Cadre Extensionist Katere Village Honorata Colling Woman farmer (and wife of extensionist) Katere Village Anod Mzee Farmer and treasurer of IPM/IPN/goat group Katere/Kaisho Makumbe and Theresa Domision Adopting farmers Ishaka Village Godwin and Serena Gerard Adopting farmers Ishaka Village

Ngara District Council and Administration/KAEMP Ngara:

86

N Ruguge Ruguge District Council Chairman Johj Shimimana District Council Member Bakari Kingobi District Executive Director Hezron Kayanda District Accountant and acting DED Titus Masao District Project Facilitator Damian Gyalenga Distict Project Accountant George Bahemu Monitoring and Evaluation Officer Philip Ileta Natural Resources Officer John Madafali Agricultural Officer (Seeds) Gasper Kaparaga Agricultural Officer (IPM/IPN) Mrs Bernadetha Kanyakole District Primary Health and Nutrition Officer Mwunge Langenda Manager Weevil Breeding Unit Rusumo Village Renatus Katabaro Village Extension Officer Rusumo Village Daniel Mushika Village extension Officer Kabanga Village

Ngara Village Governments: Zephania Secawyrume Chairperson Kumwendo Village

Ngara Farmers, Institutions and Communities: Dickson Mchunguzi Farmer Cadre Extensionist Benaco Village Members of Ushirikiano Womens Group, Benaco Village Elisante Mchunguzi Farmer/wife of cadre, member Ushirikiano Womens Group, Benaco Village Dauda Yunusi Farmer Benaco Village Mohamed Bulangawe Treasurer Songanbele Group Benaco Village Tarasis Joseph Chairperson Songanbele Group Benaco Village Charles Menane Songanbele Group Benaco Village Robert Ruhenange Farmer Cadre Extensionist Rusumo Village Pili Juma Farmer Rusumo Village Laban Ntahogora Farmer and group official Rusumo Village James Ntarukundo Farmer Rusumo Village Adelina Domitilio Woman farmer and group official Rusumo Village Alice James Woman farmer and group secretary Rusumo Village Alois Njongoma Farmer Cadre Extensionist Kabanga Village Gideon Leverian Adopting farmer Kabanga Village Lambert Cipriani Adopting farmer Kabanga Village Susanna Michael Adopting woman farmer Kabanga Village Andrew Ngogwa Head teacher Kumwendo Primary School (wood lot, nursery and farm) Lazaro Kanane Academic Officer Kumwendo Primary School Angelina Thobias Duty teacher Kumwendo Primary School Minani and Trefonia Lambart Farmers and multiple group members Nyabihanga Village

Biharamulo District Council and Administration/KAEMP Biharamulo: M B Sanga District Commissioner Andrew Fatukubonye District Project Facilitator Dr Gabriel Ngaiza District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officer Jovin Kyamuhangile Seeds Supervisor Yusuf Vulumusi Agricultural Field Officer Yassin Mutanda Water Technician Shaaban Ntarambe District Planning Officer Zabron Njanga Planning/M&E Officer Nestory Njunjwa District Project Accountant Cyprian Mafuru District Forestry Officer Eliasi Rutakyamirwa Acting District Medical Officer Jenipha Magurula District Nursing officer Amina Kiwanuka Community Development/Gender Officer

87

Idi Musa Village Extension Officer Kasozibakaya Village

Biharamulo Village Governments: Samuel Amos Chairperson Kagoma Village Council

Biharamulo Farmers, Institutions and Communities: Imelda Iganga Head Teacher Nyakatuntu Primary School Gerard Yeyeye Environment teacher Nyakutuntu Leonce and Godberita Sebastian Farmers and IPM/IPN Group members Bisisbo Village Pius Magnus Farmer Cadre Extensionist Bisibo Village Clemence Kaflira Farmer and local carpenter Bisibo Village Aquilina Patrick Woman farmer and seed multiplier Bisibo Village Maria Salome Woman farmer and seed multiplier Bisibo Village Laurant Isaka Farmer (and group) Kibamaba Village (non-project village) Atmane Kuzenza Farmer and seed producer Kagoma Village Stephano Kanyerere Farmer and draught oxen cultivation contractor Kagoma Village Juma Kuzenze Farmer and oxen cultivation contractor Kagoma Village Daoudi Iduma Farmer and chairperson of IPM/IPN group Kasozibakaya Village Patrick Kitangaja Farmer Cadre Extensionist Kasozibakaya Village Minzigarama Lutema Farmer Kasozibakaya Village Mageni Mchenja Woman farmer and household head (non-project) Kasozibakaya Village

Muleba District Council and Administration/KAEMP Muleba: Alhaj Rugusha District Commissioner Robert Shangali District Executive Director Fidelis Jallady District Accountant Richard Ngirrwa District Project Facilitator Julius Motashobya District M&E Officer Julius Yumzu District Accountant Baraka Otouma District Forestry Officer Tresphory Mutagwaba District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officer Justinian Muchunguzi District IPM/IPN Superviser Aisha Rugusha District Village Health Workers Coordinator Julius Mutashobya District M&E Officer Sadoth Francis District Deputy Planning Officer Samson Rwezanra District Extension Officer

Muleba Village/Local Governments: Ernest Jacob Divisional Secretary Wilson Mutalemwa Ward Executive Officer Gosbert Andrew Village Executive Officer Kasharungu Village Charles Kayanda Chairman Kasharungu Village Gration Muganda Chairman Nsisha Village

Muleba Farmers, Institutions and Communities: Vedasto, Annastella and Alex Roman Farmers and tree nursery operators Kasharungu Village Margreth Charles Woman farmer and entrepreneur (female headed household) Kagoma Village

Mugirage Group Kagoma Ward: Paul Kanyoma Farmer and Secretary Moses Bishanje Farmer Cadre Extensionist Kagoma Malisteria Darius Woman farmer Celestina Joasi Woman farmer Praxeda Johnspeter Woman farmer Nicklaus Nicodeum Farmer

88

Afsa Ali Woman farmer Salvatory Sylvester Farmer Aplonia Francis Woman farmer (female headed household) Theophilda Pousion Woman farmer (female headed household) Godfrey Joasi Farmer Valentine Deverian Farmer

Bukoba Rural District Council and Administration/KAEMP Bukoba Rural: Zuberi Mbyana District Executive Director Ms Erica Kalembo District Adminstrative SecretaryPhilbert Itanisa District Project Facilitator Ms Bertha Munyaga Seeds Superviser Christian Kajagu Assistant seeds Superviser Jonathan Lutashobya Acting District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officer Christopher Manugulilo Assistant IPM/IPN Officer Charles Kiberenge District Planning and M&E Officer Kajagu C Assistant Seeds Superviser Ranfranco Shawa District Project Accountant Anne Marie Msubuga Assistant District Health Officer Ahmada Abdalaha District Water Engineer Maximillian Kabairuka District Works Engineer

Bukoba Rural Village/Local Governments: Edwin Kerbishanda Divisional Executive Secretary Lucas Rwabishogi Ward Councillor Rubale Ward Davis Kazaoura Ward Extension Officer Deus Kiza Ward Extension Officer Bulifani

Bukoba Rural Farmers, Institutions and Communities: Katibu Mohamed Farmer Cadre Extensionist Kyema Village Isaac Mohamed Farmer and IPM/IPN group member Kyema Village Mbelwa and Mwanahawa Abass Farmer (and chairperson) Kyema IPM/IPN group Emmanuel Joachim Farmer Kyema IPM/IPN group Featum Kandara Farmer and group member Kyema Village Deogracia s Kagimbo Farmer and group member Kyema Village Afsa Atibu Woman farmer and group member Kyema Village Modricat Lutemba Farmer and group member Kyema Village

Mwamko IPM/IPN and Farmer Field School Groups: Oscar Boniface Chairperson Charles Mugwenga Secretary Jackson Musitiro Committee Member Amipha Juma Lady Chairperson Mwamko FFS Rubale Village Ephraim Gaudinia Secretary Mwamko FFS Adam Abdul Latif Member Mwamko FFS Abass Kabamba Member Mwamko FFS Leonidas Ramakumbu Member Mwamko FFS Jonah Kamakara member Mwamko FFS Pirdea Mweenza Woman farmer member Mwamko FFS Uritium Juma Woman farmer member Mwamko FFS Abdul Mushobozi Farmer and tree nursery operator Rubale Village Msaya Stephen Chairperson Bulifani Village

Pambasuko IPM/IPN Group Bulifani Village: Morideno Sued Secretary Esther Isiya Treasurer

89

David seleman Group Adviser Ali Sayedi Farmer Cadre Extensionist Ahmed Kajubi Farmer, group member and spokesperson Samuel and Dina Daniel Farmers and group members Edinata Devi Woman farmer and group member

Tuinwani IPM/IPN Group Rubale Hamlet Bulifani Ward: Dominic Mwamsiki Chairperson Khamis Ntumo Group Adviser Hamid Abakar Secretary Nusurath Kajiwe Woman farmer cadre extensionist

List of Documents Consulted

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD): Project Management Department PF: Tanzania Agricultural and Environmental Management Project Appraisal Report Oct 1996 Regional Strategy Paper for Rural Poverty Reduction in Eastern and Southern Africa 2002 United Republic of Tanzania, Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (COSOP) 1998

Office of Evaluation OE: New Evaluation Process 2000 Towards an Impact Evaluation Methodology 2002 Tanzania, Country Programme Evaluation Report

Katholie ke Universiteit Leuven: Study of Food Security Situation in the Kagera Region, Tanzania, Final Report 1999

Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government: Report on KAEMP Impact Monitoring Study 1998 -1999 1999 KAEMP Progress Status Report 1st July to 30th September 1998 1998 KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 31st December 1999 1999 KAEMP Progress Status Report for the 4th quarter of the year 2000 2001 KAEMP Progress Status Report as at 30th September 2001 2001 Policy Paper on Local Government Reform October 1998

United Republic of Tanzania, Presidents Office - Regional Administration and Local Government: KAEMP Annual Work Plan and Budget for Year 2002 December 2001 KAEMP Mid Term Review – Final Report and Annexes 2001 KAEMP Progress Status Report, 31 June 2002 2002 KAEMP Progress Status Report, 30 September 2002 2002

United Republic of Tanzania: (Ministries of Agriculture and Food Security, Water and Livestock Development and Cooperatives and Marketing and National Bureau of Statistics) Agricultural Sector Development Strategy October 2001 Agricultural Sector Development Programme: Draft Framework and Process Document September 2002 District Integrated Agricultural Survey 1998/99: Kagera Report February 2001

Government of Belgium: Chambre des Representants Rapport – Visite de Quatre Projets Du Fonds Belge de Survie en Tanzanie (25 Janvier-2 Fevrier 2002)

Care International in Tanzania:

90

Kagera Environment Programme, Report on IFAD Funded Activities, March 1996-June 1997

Clean Lakes Inc/ Institut des Sciences Agronomique du Rwanda (ISAR): Biological Control of Water Hyacinth in the Kagera River Headwaters of Rwanda: A review through 2001 October 2002

United Nations Office for Project Services: KAEMP Supervision Reports 2001 and 2002

Karagwe District Council - KAEMP: District Information Summary for KAEMP November 2002 Progress report for Third Quarter 2002 September 2002 Ngara District Council - KAEMP: Project Brief for Interim Evaluation Mission November 2002 Progress report for Third Quarter 2002 September 2002

Biharamulo District Council - KAEMP: Brief to the KAEMP Interim Evaluation Mission November 2002 Progress report for Third Quarter 2002 September 2002 Monthly Returns for October 2002 November 2002

Muleba District Council - KAEMP: Report on the Implementation Status of KAEMP Muleba Interim Evaluation Mission November 2002 Progress report for Third Quarter 2002 September 2002

Bukoba Rural District Council - KAEMP: Overview of KAEMP Activities as at October 2002 November 2002 Progress report for Third Quarter 2002 September 2002 Local Government Reform Programme Strategic Document 2002-2006 November 2002

Kagera Community Development Programme KCDP (assisted by BSF): Quarterly Progress Report, July to September 2002

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU): Country Profile 2001 -- Tanzania Quarterly Review June 2002

91