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DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG " Media " Published: 14th June 2019 DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG WKN: A0Z23G | ISIN: DE000A0Z23G6 | Bloomberg: ERMK GY BUY Before: BUY I-Motion deal is a good strategic fit for DEAG Price Target EUR 5.20 (5.20) Share price* EUR 4.49 (+16%) Acquisition of 50.1% share in I-Motion GmbH: On June 7, the company announced " Company Update" it had acquired a 50.1% share in I-Motion GmbH, the German operative unit of *last XETRA closing price In LiveStyle Inc. I-Motion was founded over 25 years ago and is an organiser of Change 2019e 2020e 2021e electronic music events. The three most well-known events are "Nature One" (since Sales 3.7% 5.1% 4.8% EBIT 5.2% 8.4% 8.5% 1995), "Mayday" (since 1991) and "Ruhr-in-love" (since 2003). These three annual EPS 1.0% 7.3% 3.4% events alone generate ticket sales of over 100,000 a year. Details of the transaction: DEAG expects revenue potential of EUR 15 m from I- 5 Motion. We believe that a margin of 6-8% can be achieved on an EBITDA level, 4,5 because it is not only the own IPs that can be used, but also proceeds from food 4 and drink, merchandise, and sponsorship. In the 25 year history the revenues 3,5 3 ranged between EUR 12-15m. In 2017 revenues stood at EUR 13.3m. Given the fact 2,5 that there were around 6% less visitors in 2018, we assume that revenues will have 2 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 DEAG Deutsche Entertainment Aktiengesellschaft MSCI Europe / Media & Entertainment -IG been at EUR 12.6m in 2018e. For 2019e we except revenues to grow, however, Germany SDAX mainly because NatureOne will be celebrating its 25th anniversary event. The 20th Source: Factset anniversary event saw a 14% hike in visitors YoY. We expect the increase to be Basic share data about 12% in 2019e (rising to 60.5k, 2018: 54k) with corresponding revenue of around EUR 14.3m. An estimated margin of 7% would put the EBITDA at around Number of shares (million) 19.1 Free Float (in %) 35% EUR 1m. Based on the assumption that the multiple is at the top end of the range Market Cap (in million EUR) 83.6 of 6-8x EBITDA, the purchase price for a 100% share would be at EUR 8.5-10m. This Trading volume (Ø) 28,500 means that DEAG must have paid around EUR 4.5-5m for a 50.1% share. High (EUR, 52 weeks) 4.64 Low (EUR, 52 weeks) 2.20 Estimates for I-Motion: We assume that DEAG can consolidate significantly more than half of turnover for 2019e. We believe revenues of EUR 10m should be realistic Shareholder structure for the rest of the year. For 2019e we are working on an EBITDA margin of 6%, Apeiron Investment Group 19.0% putting the EBITDA contribution at around EUR 600k. For 2020e we see I-Motion Plutus Holdings 2 10.4% Free float, others 70.6% (plus contribution from myticket) achieving turnover of EUR 15m with an EBITDA of 7%, or EUR 1m. For the time being, we will leave the revenues/EBITDA estimates Corporate calendar for I-Motion stable at EUR 15m/revenues and EUR 1m/EBITDA. AGM 27.06.2019 BUY confirmed: In the course or the update to our model as part of the I-Motion H1 19 report 30.08.2019 takeover, we also reviewed the operational turnover development and adjusted it slightly. This results in an increase in revenues in 2019e of just EUR 8m. On an Analyst EBITDA level this has an effect of around EUR 200k. Our fair value from the peer Marcus Silbe, CEFA group evaluation is currently at EUR 5.34. We therefore confirm our BUY Head of Research recommendation. [email protected] +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 12 GY End: 31.12;.in EURm CAGR (18-21e) 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Contact Turnover 9.2% 179.5 159.8 200.2 226.6 248.2 260.6 FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG EBITDA 7.2% 5.2 6.5 14.6 14.6 17.0 18.0 Schillerstrasse 16 Margin 2.9% 4.1% 7.3% 6.4% 6.9% 6.9% 60313 Frankfurt am Main Germany EBIT 10.0% 3.7 5.1 10.6 10.8 13.2 14.1 Margin 2.1% 3.2% 5.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.4% +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 10 net result n.m. -3.6 -2.3 3.5 3.0 4.0 4.2 www.fmr-research.de EPS n.m. -0.22 -0.12 0.20 0.16 0.21 0.23 Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 In cooperation with: EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 EV/EBITDA n.m. 10.5 5.6 5.7 4.3 3.5 P/E n.m. n.m. n.m. 27.8 20.9 19.7 Net debt/EBITDA n.m. 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 Source: DEAG, FMR Page 1 of 8 DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG Valuation After integrating the data from the I-Motion transaction we arrive at a new fair value from the peer group valuation of EUR 5.34, meaning the value has risen by a further 20 cent. Excluding the maintenance adjustments, the fair value would even have increased to approx. EUR 5.50 per share. We will leave our target price at EUR 5.20 for now, since this currently still represents upward potential of approx 16%. We still want to wait until we have the latest figures for Ruhr-in-Love and Nature One, since these account for a substantial share of I-Motion's annual performance. Peer Group Valuation Company name P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E DEAG (consensus) 31.0 19.5 15.5 7.0 5.4 4.2 9.9 7.2 5.4 Current Premium/Discount vs. Average peer 8.0% -22.3% -31.4% -47.8% -54.6% -71.4% -62.3% -66.2% -68.7% vs. Median peer 8.0% -22.3% -31.4% -47.8% -54.6% -63.4% -62.3% -66.2% -68.7% CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA 28.7 25.1 22.6 11.9 10.5 9.4 14.5 12.6 11.2 Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. n.m. n.m. n.m. 14.9 13.0 11.4 38.3 29.9 23.5 Madison Square Garden Co. Class A n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Eventbrite, Inc. Class A - - - n.m. n.m. 22.9 - n.m. n.m. Average (excl. DEAG) 28.7 25.1 22.6 13.4 11.8 14.6 26.4 21.3 17.3 Median (excl. DEAG) 28.7 25.1 22.6 13.4 11.8 11.4 26.4 21.3 17.3 EPS EBITDA EBIT in Mio. EUR, außer EPS (in EUR) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E DEAG: Financial estimates by FMR 0.16 0.21 0.23 14.6 17.0 18.0 10.8 13.2 14.1 Applied multiples: Peer group median 28.7 25.1 22.6 13.4 12.4 11.4 26.4 21.3 17.3 Enterprise value (derived) - - - 195.0 211.0 205.0 286.1 281.2 244.2 - Financial net debt & minority interests -12.1 Market capitalisation (derived) - - - - 198.9 - - - - Market capitalisation (derived) 198.9 Premium (discount) vs. Peer Group -50% Fair market capitalisation 99.4 Number of shares (m) 18.6 Fair value per share (EUR) 5.34 Source: Factset, FMR Page 2 of 8 DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG Appendix P&L in EURm 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Revenues 179.5 159.8 200.2 226.6 248.2 260.6 YoY grow th 4.3% -11.0% 25.3% 13.2% 9.5% 5.0% Cost of revenues -148.7 -130.5 -161.7 -183.5 -198.6 -208.5 as % of revenues -82.8% -81.6% -80.8% -81.0% -80.0% -80.0% Gross profit 30.8 29.3 38.5 43.1 49.6 52.1 as % of revenues 17.2% 18.4% 19.2% 19.0% 20.0% 20.0% General & administrative expenses -13.6 -12.6 -16.5 -17.4 -18.6 -19.5 as % of revenues -7.6% -7.9% -8.2% -7.7% -7.5% -7.5% Sales and marketing expenses -20.7 -13.1 -19.0 -20.9 -24.5 -25.7 as % of revenues -11.5% -8.2% -9.5% -9.2% -9.9% -9.9% Other operating income/exenses 7.2 1.4 7.6 6.2 6.7 7.2 as % of revenues 4.0% 0.9% 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% Reported EBITDA 5.2 6.5 14.6 14.6 17.0 18.0 as % of revenues 2.9% 4.1% 7.3% 6.4% 6.9% 6.9% Depreciation and amortisation (incl. PPA) -1.4 -1.5 -4.0 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9 as % of revenues -0.8% -0.9% -2.0% -1.6% -1.5% -1.5% Reported EBIT 3.7 5.1 10.6 10.8 13.2 14.1 as % of revenues 2.1% 3.2% 5.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.4% Net financial results incl.
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