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FOOD Briefing Food Briefing: Agflation in Asia

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FOOD Briefing Food Briefing: Agflation in Asia AUTUMN 2008 FORUM Sofitel Metropole Hanoi November 13-15, 2008 FOOD BRIEFING Food Briefing: Agflation in Asia Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Demand Pressures in Asia .............................................................................................................................................................................4 Supply Pressures in Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................6 Agflation Consequences ..................................................................................................................................................................................9 Government Policies in Asia ......................................................................................................................................................................11 The Way Forward .......................................................................................................................................................................................................13 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Endnotes ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18 ABOUT THE ASIA BUSINESS COUNCIL The Asia Business Council is an independent organization of top executives who share an interest in the market-friendly policies needed to ensure the region’s contin- ued economic development and competitiveness. The Council conducts research on issues that are important to Asia’s future and, where appropriate, takes action. The Council, which was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, is funded by its members and has no government affiliation. The statements in this report are the sole responsibility of the author and should not be regarded as reflecting an official Council viewpoint. This briefing was written by Asia Business Council Program Director Janet Pau and edited by Sheridan Prasso. Design by George Skarpelos, Media Arts International Copyright © 2008 the Asia Business Council All rights reserved Executive Summary This briefing examines the and logistical costs put immense pres- portunities exist for governments, the major causes of surging food sure on all of the region’s agricultural private sector, and non-governmental prices in Asia and concludes sectors. If unresolved, a combination of organizations to improve the function- that agricultural inflation, these structural factors will mark the ing of agricultural markets. They in- or agflation, is not simply a end of food abundance for populations clude measures to reduce competition cyclical problem but reflects in developed and emerging markets, between biofuel and food resources, deep-seated and potentially as well as reduce countries’ abilities the effective use of biotechnology to dangerous structural to feed their poorest populations. improve productivity and reduce envi- changes. Government policies that have been ronmental impact, practices to increase implemented so far have leaned toward sustainability of farming, improvements n emerging Asia, increased caloric protecting food supply in individual in agricultural research and expertise intake, changing dietary preferences countries in the short term but may to raise farmers’ incomes, investments and a growing demand for biofuels distort agricultural trade and regional in transportation and storage infra- are primary drivers of food demand. markets, thus further aggravating structure to reduce waste, conservation IAt the same time, urbanization and agflation. While more fully opening efforts to combat climate change, and climate change, degradation of existing up agricultural markets faces huge targeted relief and rural development farmland, as well as increases in input challenges, a number of immediate op- policies to help the most vulnerable. 2 | 2008 Autumn Forum: Food Briefing Introduction The era of cheap food is This briefing argues that recent gains of recent years and stunt fu- ending, and populations agflation patterns do not appear to be ture economic growth. The average around the world and in Asia simply a cyclical problem reflecting headline inflation for the region in are feeling the pain. general inflation. Rather, increased 2008, pushed up by food and fuel caloric intake, changing dietary prices, is estimated to be more than hile global attention preferences, the growing biofuel 6%, double the average rate the past has long been focused industry, urbanization and climate ten years.3 Rising commodity prices on how to feed the change, shrinking and increasingly have led to deteriorating terms of trade, poorest populations in degraded farmland, and skyrocketing especially for the net food importers Wthe �����������������������������������least developed countries, particu- input and logistical costs, along with in the region, hurting consumption, larly in Africa, skyrocketing food prices short-term and nationally focused investment, and labor markets. Many have hit the pockets of not just the policies, are coming together at the Asians already spend a third or even a poorest, but also broader populations same time, threatening food availability half of their income on food. A proxy in Asia. With food and fuel protests and access for populations around Asia. for this is the weighting of food in the in many countries in Asia earlier this Consumer Price Index (CPI), as shown year and marked increases in prices WHY THIS IS AN IMPORTANT in the graph on page 3. ��������������roadly speak- of day-to-day food products at local PROBLEM FOR ASIA ing, poorer countries and poorer people food markets, what seemed like remote For rapidly growing Asian economies spend more of their income on food problems affecting the poorest and like China and many Southeast Asian and are hit harder by price increases. most remote populations of the world countries, continued price infla- In Asia, the absolute number of are hitting closer to home for many tion threatens to erode the economic people who are hard hit is large and Asians. Since the end of 2006 alone, food prices have almost doubled for rice, wheat, coarse grains,1 and oilseeds, ac- cording to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From the mid-1970s until 2002, food prices declined as food pro- duction growth surpassed global popu- lation growth. Since 2002, however, the three-decade-long decline in food prices has reversed. The Food Price Index2 compiled by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) peaked in June 2008, with a growth of more than two-thirds overall since 2006. Price indices for oils and fats, cereals, and dairy have accelerated the most rapidly. Despite falling prices in recent months, the overall index is still 50% above its value in 2006. 3 | 2008 Autumn Forum: Food Briefing growing. Asia is home to two-thirds of the world’s poor, or almost 2 billion people living on less than $2 a day, who 300 are most vulnerable to food insecurity. The number of food-insecure people in Dairy 250 Asia, i.e. those consuming fewer than 2,100 calories a day, a nutritional target Oils & Fats Cereals set by the FAO, is projected to increase 200 through 2017. According to the U.S. All Department of Agriculture (USDA), 150 more than 20% of Asia’s population Sugar 4 will be food-insecure. For higher- Meat income consumers in Singapore, South 100 Korea, and even China, the impact may be no more severe than cutting back 50 on non-essentials. �ut for middle-class and lower-income consumers, hunger 0 and nutritional deficiency may become 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 average more urgent issues. Jan-Oct A number of underlying trends suggest that the agflation problem HISTORICAL GLOBAL FOOD PRICE INDICES is influenced primarily by structural SOURCE: UNITED NatiONS FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZatiON rather than cyclical factors. 57% India 47% Philippines 46% Pakistan 43% Vietnam 42% Indonesia 33% China 33% Thailand 30% Malaysia 27% Hong Kong 26% Japan 25% Taiwan 23% Singapore 14% Korea 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 FOOD WEIGHTINGS IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) BASKET BY COUNTRY SOURCES: ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK; ECONOmist INTELLIGENCE UNIT; FAO; USDA 4 | 2008 Autumn Forum: Food Briefing Demand Pressures in Asia INCREASING CALORIC INTAKE Per-capita calorie consumption per and demand for higher-quality foods, rowing populations in Asia day across Asia has increased from an organic foods, and ethically sourced or are consuming more calories average of 2,269 calories in 1978-80, to fair-trade foods. Last year, the out- than before. Asia accounts 2,710 in 1998-2000.7 Increased caloric break of the Porcine Reproductive and for almost 60% of the global intake means higher food demand.
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