In Search of a New Order in East Asia to the Memory of Georgi Fjodorovitch Kim
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In Search of a New Order in East Asia To the memory of Georgi Fjodorovitch Kim and Vladimir D. Tikhomirov RESEARCH PAPERS AND POLICY STUDIES 37 In Search of a New Order in East Asia EDITED BY Chong-Sik Lee ^7- INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES OF OOBOKNU . BERKELBV Apublication of theInstitute of EastAsianStudies, University ofCalifornia at Berkeley. Althoughthe Institute is responsible for the selectionand acceptance ofmanuscripts in this series, responsibility for the opinions expressed and for theaccuracy of statements rests with their authors. The Research Papers and Policy Studies series is one of several publications series sponsored by the Institute of East Asian Studies in conjunction with its constituentunits. The others include the ChinaResearch Monograph series, the Japan Research Monograph series, the Korea ResearchMonograph series, and theIndochinaResearch Monograph series. A list of recent publications appears at the back of the book. Correspondence may be sent to: Ms. Joanne Sandstrom, Managing Editor Institute of East Asian Studies University of California Berkeley, California 94720 Copyright © 1991 by The Regents of the University of California ISBN 1-55729-028^8 Libraryof Congress Catalog Card Number 91-75663 Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. Contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction Chong'Sik Lee 1 PART 1: POLITICAL RELATIONS IN THE PACIFIC-ASIAN REGION 1. A Regional Review Robert A. Scalapino 9 2. A Japanese View Seizaburo Sato 29 3. A Soviet View Gennady I. Chufrin 42 4. A Chinese View Wu Zhan 52 5. The Importance of Regionwide Cooperation Gendengiin Nyamdoo 69 PART 2: PACIFIC-ASIAN ECONOMIC RELATIONS 6. Prospects for Continued Rapid Growth in East Asia Dwight H. Perkins 79 7. Patterns of Growth Saburo Okita 96 8. Changing Patterns of Economic Interaction D.W, Nam 109 9. Soviet Economic Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region Vladlen A. Martynov 122 PART 3: MILITARY-STRATEGIC TRENDS IN THE REGION 10. Arms Control in the Vortex of the Pacific Alexei G, Arbatov 135 11. Changes in Strategic Equations Ronald J. Hays 156 12. East Asian International Relations in the 1990s Byung'joon Ahn 162 PART 4: THE FUTURE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA 13. Prospects for Peace and Unification on the Korean Peninsula HanSungjoo 177 14. North and South Korea at a Crossroad Chong-SikLee 190 Contributors 207 Acknowledgments The conference at which these papers here were delivered ("In Search ofa New Order in East Asia," Santa Barbara, California, February 1-3,1990) was held in commemoration of the seventieth anniversary of the inauguration of Dong-A Ilbo (East Asia Daily). That paper was launched in 1920, when Korea was under Japanese rule. Since then, except between 1940 and 1945, when the colonial regime suppressed all nongpvemmental Korean media, the paper continued to serve as the beacon and mouthpiece ofthe Korean people in spite ofharsh circumstances. The very fact that the paper had survived the trials and tribulations for seventy years was a cause for celebration. But Dong-A Ilbo and the Korean people had much more to celebrate in 1990. Just two years before, the South Koreans had installed a democratic system of government after decades of authoritarian dictatorship and had successfully organized and conducted the International Olympics. The institution of democracy meant the lifting of government censorship and governmental interference that directly affected Dong-A Ilbo. Except for a year between 1960 and 1961, this was the first time that Korean newspapers were allowed complete freedom. This was certainly a cause for celebration. We join Dong-A Ilbo in its celebration and wish to thank Dr. Sang Man Kim, the honorary chairman, and Mr. Byung Kwan Kim, the president, respectively, ofthe Dong-A Ilbo Company, for the generous support provided for the conference. Mr. Jin Hyon Kim, who was then the Chief Editorial Writer ofDong-A Ilbo, served as the organizer of the conference. I also wish to express my special thanks to Harry Kendall, who performed a yeoman's task as coordinator ofthe conference on behalfofthe Institute ofEast Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, which cosponsored the conference. His task demanded extraordinary patience because he had to deal with scholars ofso many different countries. Jonathan Petty and many others at the institute also provided valuable service. The credit for seeing the volume viii Acknowledgments through editing and production goes to Joanne Sandstrom, managingeditor of the institute. Introduction CHONG-SIK LEE The changes Mikhail Gorbachev ushered into the world since he came into power in 1985 have been truly astonishing. The cold war has ended, the Communist bloc dissolved itself, and Germany united. The Soviet Union has been undergoing drastic transformations, and as this volume goes to press. President Gorbachev is attempting to redefine the nature of the relationship between Moscow and the various republics within the Soviet Union. These changes were very poignant for those who participated in the Santa Barbara conference (In Search of a New Order in East Asia) in March 1990 particularlybecausethey couldlookbackto manysimilar occasions whenthe atmosphereand the topics of discussionwere vastlydifferent: they had to deal primarily withcausesof and solutions to mounting conflicts. Nowthescholars were called upon to look toward a future in which East-Westtension has been minimized. There was no doubt that we were entering a new era in history. The changes, of course, were not confinedto formerly socialistcountriesor to international relations between Communist and non-Communist countries. Some of the countries that had been outside the Communist bloc also experi enced political changes of great significance in part because of the thaw in international relations but also as a result of ongoing socioeconomic transfor mations. And, as the people in different countries became increasingly more assertive, politics in each country and the relationships among countries became more complicated. The complexitywas compoundedby the intensified economic, social, and political interaction among nations. It was important, therefore, for scholars of various countries to identify the nature of the changes taking place, to assess the current situation, and to forecast the future. It was considered essential also that scholars of various countries exchange their ideas. As the title of the conference suggests, the Santa Barbara conference was devoted to East Asia, particularly the Northeast Asia region. Selected scholars 2 CHONG-SIK LEE from China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, the Soviet Union, and the United States were invited to present papers and participate in discussions. It was understood, of course, that invited scholars represented no one other than themselves and that their views might not be representativeof the viewsof theirfellow citizens, let alone their government. Scholars from both North Korea and South Korea were invited, but we regret that the North Koreans found it inconvenient to accept the invitation. Because the pace of change accelerated subsequent to the Santa Barbara meetings, it was necessary to revise mostof the papers. Thepapers presented here, then, are revised versions of those presented at the conference. In a few cases, the authors chose to rewrite their papers completely. We are grateful indeed to all the authors for theirrepeatedgenerositywiththeirtime andeffort. Northeast Asia as a Unit of Analysis Whytreat NortheastAsia as a singleunitfor analysis? In whatways does the situation in that region differ from that in Europe? Duck-Woo Nam presented a mostcogentanswer to thefirstquestion. In addition to geographic proximity, it is a region where, except for the Soviet Union, all countries or economies fall within the Sinic or Confucian cultural sphere; both major Communistpowersare represented,alongwiththeirallyNorthKorea;thearea has experienced active, long-term, and massive involvement of the United States andtheSoviet Union inaddition totheregional powers; anditistheonly subregion in the world that has not yet established a multinational framework of political or economic cooperation such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The second question—^the characteristics of the situation in Northeast Asia—^has been answered by many others. This region shares similaritieswith Europe in that there is a trend toward dialogue, detente, reconciliation, and cooperation. The countries in the region are also attempting to institutesocial reform, political readjustment, and economic development. But there are majordifferences. Alexei Arbatovfrom the SovietUnionflatly statedthat the many positive aspects of the European experience are not applicable to the Asia-Pacific region. Large armed forces are involved in the 'Tocal" confronta tions, and "it is not easy to find a country [in the region] that does not feel insecure in theactual or potential military-political encirclement byunfriendly states." Byung-joon Ahn from SouthKorea, Seizaburo Satoof Japan, andWu Zhan from the People's Republic of China shared similar views. They noted that in East Asia, unlike in Europe, there is an asymmetry of power, and political uncertainty and regional conflicts prevail. As elsewhere, a tide of nationalism is rising among weaker powers in East Asia, and some of them are Introduction 3 enthusiastically expanding theirarsenals while developed countries arereduc ing theirs. Also in contrast to developments in Europe, Asian Communists continue to adhere