Legal Uncertainty and Municipal Bond Yields: Market Spillovers from Puerto Rico CHUCK BOYER∗ July 8, 2019 ABSTRACT I explore the effects of legal uncertainty on U.S. municipal bond yields. The legal framework for state government default in the United States is very uncertain, and has very little precedent (no state has defaulted on its debt since the 1930s). I argue that recent events in the Puerto Rican debt crisis may provide information to investors about the potential legal structure for future state government default events. I test whether U.S. state government bond yields react to legal news and decisions relating to the Puerto Rican default crisis. Additionally, I explore cross-sectional differences in these spillover effects. I find that state bond yields do react to events in Puerto Rico. However, I do not find evidence that effects are stronger in states with lower credit quality. This suggests that markets may perceive these events as setting precedent for potential future state default events. Overall my results imply that creating a default framework for U.S. state governments could reduce market uncertainty, and therefore state borrowing costs. ∗University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Department of Economics.
[email protected]. I thank Lubos Pastor, Eric Zwick, Amir Sufi and seminar participants at the University of Chicago for their feedback. This research was funded in part by the John and Serena Liew Fellowship Fund at the Fama-Miller Center for Research in Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business. I. Introduction Some of the legal precedents potentially being set, whether or not technically bind- ing outside Puerto Rico or the 1st Circuit, erode the expectations and good order of the municipal bond marketplace that finances the activities of states and municipal instrumentalities nationwide.