Northamptonshire County Council NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD Full Business Case
70021598 JANUARY 2020 CONFIDENTIAL
Northamptonshire County Council
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD Full Business Case
TYPE OF DOCUMENT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECT NO. 70045931 OUR REF. NO. 70021598
DATE: JANUARY 2020
WSP The Mailbox Level 2 100 Wharfside Street, Birmingham B1 1RT Phone: +44 121 352 4700
WSP.com
CONFIDENTIAL
QUALITY CONTROL
Issue/revision Final
Remarks Final Full Business Case
Date January 2020
Prepared by Jake Page
Signature
Checked by Nichola Byrne
Digitally signed by Byrne, Nichola (UKNEB001) Byrne, Nichola DN: cn=Byrne, Nichola (UKNEB001), Signature ou=Birmingham (Mailbox), (UKNEB001) [email protected] Date: 2020.01.30 16:57:29
Digitally signed by Byron, Paul (UKPJB002) Authorised by Paul Byron Byron, Paul DN: cn=Byron, Paul (UKPJB002), ou=Birmingham (Mailbox), [email protected] Andrew Palmer (UKPJB002) Date: 2020.01.30 17:21:41 Z
Digitally signed by Palmer, Andy Reason: I am approving this Signature document Date: 2020.01.30 17:53:53 Z
Project number 70045931
Report number 1
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NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 9
1.1 PURPOSE 9 1.2 BACKGROUND TO NORTHAMPTON AND THE TRANSPORT STRATEGY 9 1.3 THE NEED FOR CHANGE 11 1.4 OBJECTIVES 13
2 STRATEGIC CASE 14
2.1 INTRODUCTION 14 2.2 HISTORY OF THE PROJECT 16 2.3 GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 17 2.3.1 LOCATION 17 2.3.2 STRATEGIC AND MAJOR ROAD NETWORK 18 2.3.3 LOCAL ROAD NETWORK 20 2.3.4 NEW DEVELOPMENTS 21 2.4 CASE FOR CHANGE 22 2.4.1 INTRODUCTION 22 2.4.2 PROBLEMS AND OBJECTIVES IDENTIFIED IN THE OAR 28 2.4.3 PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES 29 2.4.4 EXISTING PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES 29 2.4.5 FUTURE PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES 33 2.5 INTERDEPENDENCIES 35 2.6 OUTCOMES WITHOUT THE NWRR 36 2.7 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCHEME: WHAT WILL BE DELIVERED 36 2.8 EVIDENCE OF STRATEGIC FIT 38 2.8.1 NATIONAL POLICIES 39
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
2.8.2 REGIONAL POLICIES 46 2.8.3 LOCAL POLICIES 49 2.9 FOUR STRATEGIC THEMES 52 2.10 THEME 1: FACILITATING HOUSING GROWTH 53 2.11 THEME 2: ENABLING NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY 53 2.12 THEME 3: SUSTAINING AND SUPPORTING ECONOMIC GROWTH TO DEVELOP NORTHAMPTON TOWN CENTRE AS THE KEY REGIONAL CENTRE 55 2.13 THEME 4: PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 55 2.14 FIT WITH SEMLEP STRATEGIC PRIORITIES 56 2.15 THE EVOLUTION OF THE SCHEME: FROM CONCEPT TO OBJECTIVES 58 2.16 TRAFFIC MODELLING 59 2.17 STAKEHOLDERS 59 2.17.1 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT 59 2.17.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT 61 2.17.3 STAKEHOLDER GROUPS 62 2.17.4 PERSIMMON/DAVID WILSON HOMES AND ALTHORP 63 2.18 DEVELOPING THE OBJECTIVES: FROM SCOPE TO OPTIONS 64 2.19 CONSTRAINTS 68 2.19.1.1 RIVER NENE FLOODPLAIN 68 2.19.1.2 NORTHAMPTON LOOP RAILWAY LINE 68 2.19.1.3 CHARACTER OF THE LANDSCAPE 69 2.19.1.4 FURTHER CONSTRAINTS 69 2.20 RISKS 70 2.20.1 PHASE 1 RISKS 72 2.21 OPTIONS 72 2.22 MEASURES OF SUCCESS 74 2.23 SUMMARY 78
3 ECONOMIC CASE 79
3.1 INTRODUCTION 79 3.2 DIRECT TRANSPORT USER IMPACTS 79
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
3.3 MODELLING APPROACH 80 3.4 APPRAISAL ASSUMPTIONS 81 3.6.1 ECONOMY 85 3.6.1.1 DIRECT USER BENEFITS 85 3.6.1.2 RELIABILITY 85 3.6.1.3 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS 86 3.6.2 SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS 86 3.6.2.1 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY 86 3.6.2.2 JOURNEY QUALITY 86 3.6.2.3 ACCIDENTS 86 3.6.2.4 SECURITY 87 3.6.2.5 ACCESS TO SERVICES 87 3.6.2.6 AFFORDABILITY 87 SEVERANCE 87 3.6.2.7 OPTION AND NON-USE VALUES 87 3.6.3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 88 3.6.3.1 NOISE 88 3.6.3.2 AIR QUALITY 88 3.6.3.3 GREENHOUSE GASES 89 3.6.3.4 LANDSCAPE AND TOWNSCAPE 89 3.6.3.5 HERITAGE AND HISTORIC RESOURCE 89 3.6.3.6 ECOLOGY AND NATURE CONSERVATION 90 3.6.3.7 WATER ENVIRONMENT 90 3.6.4 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS 91
4 VALUE FOR MONEY STATEMENT 92
4.1 INTRODUCTION 92 4.2 SUMMARY 92 4.2.1 OPTIONS CONSIDERED 92 4.2.2 MODELLING APPROACH 95 4.2.3 INITIAL BENEFIT COST RATIO 95 4.2.4 ADJUSTED BENEFIT COST RATIO 95
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
4.2.5 NON-MONETISED IMPACTS 96 4.2.6 KEY RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES 96 4.2.7 ASSUMPTIONS 98 4.2.8 SENSITIVITY TESTS 98 4.2.9 BENEFIT COST RATIOS 100
5 FINANCIAL CASE 103
5.1 INTRODUCTION 103 5.2 PHASE 1 103 5.3 PHASE 2 104 5.3.1 BASE COSTS 104 5.3.2 QUANTIFICATION 105 5.3.3 COST DATA 105 5.3.4 BASE DATA 105 5.3.5 DIRECT CONSTRUCTION WORKS 105 5.3.6 INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION WORKS 105 5.3.6.1 CONTRACTOR PRELIMINARIES 105 5.3.6.2 CONTRACTOR OVERHEADS AND PROFITS 105 5.3.7 CONTINGENCIES & RISKS 106 5.3.8 BUDGETING AND FUNDING COVER 106 5.3.9 WHOLE LIFE COSTS 107 5.3.10 FINANCIAL RISKS 108 5.3.11 ACCOUNTING IMPLICATIONS 108
6 COMMERCIAL CASE 109
6.1 INTRODUCTION 109 6.2 PHASE 1 109 6.3 PHASE 2 109 6.3.1 OUTPUT BASED SPECIFICATION 109 6.3.2 PROCUREMENT 110 6.3.3 PROCUREMENT STRATEGY 111
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
6.3.3.1 STRATEGIC AIMS OF THE MHA 111 6.3.3.2 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE OPERATION OF MFS3 111 6.3.3.3 MANAGING RELATIONSHIPS IN MSF3 111 6.3.4 PAYMENT MECHANISM 112 6.3.5 PRICING FRAMEWORK AND CHARGING MECHANISMS 112 6.3.6 RISK ALLOCATION AND TRANSFER 112 6.3.7 CONTRACT LENGTHS 112 6.3.8 CONTRACT MANAGEMENT 113 6.3.9 PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME 113
7 MANAGEMENT CASE 115
7.1 INTRODUCTION 115 7.2 PHASE 1 115 7.2.1 DELIVERY 115 7.2.2 RISKS 115 7.3 PHASE 2 115 7.3.1 EVIDENCE OF SIMILAR PROJECTS 115 7.3.2 PROJECT DEPENDENCIES 116 7.3.3 GOVERNANCE, ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE AND RULES 116 7.3.4 ASSURANCE AND APPROVALS PLAN 119 7.3.5 PROJECT PLAN 119 7.3.6 COMMUNICATIONS AND STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT 119 7.3.7 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 120 7.3.8 BENEFITS REALISATION AND MONITORING 120
TABLES
Table 2-1 - Strategic Case Structure 15 Table 2-2 - TIS Objectives Summary 39 Table 2-3 - Highways England Strategic Business Plan Summary 40 Table 2-4 - NPPF Sustainable Development Objectives 41
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
Table 2-5 - NPPF Summary 42 Table 2-6 - NIDP Summary of Objectives 44 Table 2-7 - UK Industrial Strategy Summary of Policies 45 Table 2-8 - SEMLEP Summary of Objectives 46 Table 2-9 - Summary of NTP Objectives 47 Table 2-10 - SEM Transport Strategy Summary of Objectives 48 Table 2-11 - SEM Local Industrial Strategy Summary of Priorities 49 Table 2-12 - Summary of West Northamptonshire JCS Objectives 50 Table 2-13 - Summary of West Northamptonshire IDP priorities 52 Table 2-14 - Stakeholder Groups Summary of Interests 62 Table 2-15 - NWRR Objectives, Outputs and Outcomes 64 Table 2-16 - Intervention Options analysed in the OAR 65 Table 2-17 - Short list sift options from the OAR 66 Table 2-18 – Top Initial Project Risks 70 Table 3-1 - Northamptonshire Committed Development Schemes 81 Table 3-2 - Northamptonshire Committed Employment Development Sites 82 Table 3-3 - Northamptonshire Committed Road Schemes 83 Table 3-4 – Summary of Quantified Impact of Air Quality 89 Table 4-1 - Do Minimum 2021 PCU km Comparison 98 Table 4-2 - Do Something 2021 PCU km Comparison 99 Table 4-3 - Do Minimum 2031 PCU km Comparison 99 Table 4-4 - Do Something 2031 PCU km Comparison 99 Table 4-5 – Do Something 2021 PCU km Comparison 99 Table 4-6 – Do Something 2031 PCU km Comparison 100 Table 4-7 – BCRs (2010 Market Prices Discounted to 2010) 100 Table 5-1 - Approximate Phase 1 Scheme Cost 103 Table 5-2 - Scheme Base Cost Profile as of January 2020 104 Table 5-3 - Spending Profile and Funding Sources 107 Table 5-4 - Opportunities for Cost Reductions During Preliminary Design Phase 107 Table 6-1 – Procurement Programme 113 Table 7-1 - Scheme Benefit Monitoring 122
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
FIGURES
Figure 2-1 - NWRR connecting A428 and A5199 18 Figure 2-2 - Map of SRN and MRN surrounding Northampton 20 Figure 2-3 - Location of Northampton SUEs proposed in the JCS 21 Figure 2-4 - Dallington Grange SUE illustrative masterplan 23 Figure 2-5 - 2031 AM Peak flows without NWRR 24 Figure 2-6 - 2031 AM Peak flows with NWRR 24 Figure 2-7 - 2031 AM Peak volume capacity ratios without NWRR 25 Figure 2-8 - 2031 AM Peak volume capacity ratios with NWRR 26 Figure 2-9 - 2015 AM Peak flows 27 Figure 2-10 - 2015 PM Peak flows 27 Figure 2-11 - Interrelationship between problem/challenges and objectives 29 Figure 2-12 - Percentage of residents in employment at MSOA Level 30 Figure 2-13 - IMD at LSOA Level 31 Figure 2-14 - Method of Journey to Work - Northampton 32 Figure 2-15 - Road Traffic Accidents by Severity 2012-2017 33 Figure 2-16 - Difference in flows between 2031 DM and 2015 base in AM Peak 34 Figure 2-17 - Map of the NWRR in relation to North West Northampton 38 Figure 2-18 - Policies and Strategies 38 Figure 2-19 - Interrelationship of SEMLEP core themes and FBC four themes 58 Figure 2-20 - Illustrative design of the new link at the northern aspect of the NWRR 74 Figure 2-21 - NWRR Scheme Logic Chain 76 Figure 3-1 - Committed Infrastructure Schemes 84 Figure 4-1 - Large Committed Residential Developments By 2031 (Based on Uncertainty Log – Updated November 2018) 93 Figure 4-2 - Proposed Committed Employment Sites By 2031 (Based on Uncertainty Logs – Updated November 2018) 94 Figure 7-1 - NWRR Project Governance Structure 118
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
APPENDICES
OPTION ASSESSMENT REPORT
STATEMENT OF COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
RISK REGISTER
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT NOTE
APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLE (AST)
SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT WORKSHEETS
PUBLIC ACCOUNTS TABLE
TEE TABLE
ANALYSIS OF MONETISED COSTS & BENEFITS (AMCB)
QUANTIFIED RISK ASSESSMENT
PROJECT PLAN
COMMUNICATIONS PLAN
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE The purpose of this Full Business Case (FBC) is to present the need for the delivery of the Northampton North West Relief Road (NWRR). The FBC, and business case process, have been developed in line with the SEMLEP Assurance Framework 2019, as well as Department for Transport (DfT) WebTAG guidance. The FBC is the final phase of the business case process and follows the submission, and approval, of the Outline Business Case (OBC) submitted to SEMLEP in March 2019. The FBC updates and builds upon the OBC, providing further detail and ensuring that the evidence is up to date, accurate and relevant for the needs of the scheme. The FBC will take the NWRR scheme through the five cases of the Department for Transports (DfT) Full Business Case Model taken from WebTAG guidance. An update of each of the five cases is outlined below and will form the broad structure of this report. 1. The Strategic Case: will assess the need for investment for the NWRR; 2. The Economic Case: will assess the impacts of the NWRR option and the resulting Value for Money (VfM) to justify investment; 3. The Financial Case: will determine the affordability of delivering the NWRR in the context of its location in Northampton and local conditions; 4. The Commercial Case: will provide evidence on the commercial viability of the NWRR and the procurement strategy used to encourage their use; and 5. The Management Case: will assess the deliverability of the proposed NWRR in its political and local stakeholder context. The FBC aims to: • Highlight the strategic fit of the scheme in line with local, regional and national strategy and policy including that of Northamptonshire County Council (NCC), West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit, Highways England (HE) and South-East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP); • Pull through the business context, policy context and data from the fixed demand forecast modelling, alongside sensitivity analysis using the variable demand forecast, to demonstrate a clear imperative for intervention; • Set out how achievements will be measured using metrics linked to the scheme objectives; • High level costs based on initial concepts and engineering judgements on land take required to inform the Financial Case; • Update the project governance, stakeholder processes and assurance process; • Refine the project programme; and • Scheme appraisal. 1.2 BACKGROUND TO NORTHAMPTON AND THE TRANSPORT STRATEGY Northampton is situated at the heart of England and is well located near the Strategic Road Network (SRN) including the M1, A4, A43 and A45. It has a mainline national railway service which is served by trains to London and Birmingham.
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
The district population of Northampton is around 195,000 people, meaning Northampton is the third largest town in the UK that does not have city status. Northampton is 54 miles south east of Birmingham and 68 miles north west of London. Northamptonshire and the wider area around Northampton is predominantly rural in nature. There are several settlements and smaller satellite towns in the wider area including Milton Keynes to the south, Rugby to the north west, and Wellingborough to the north east. The past decade has seen Northampton designated as a growth area, expected to accommodate further significant housing growth. The West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy sets out that provision will be made for approximately 28,470 net additional dwellings, of which 16,850 are sought to be delivered through Sustainable Urban Extensions, within the Northampton Related Development Area in the period between 2011 and 2029. As part of this development, Dallington Grange is a proposed Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE) sought to deliver 3,000 new homes in the north west of Northampton. Part of the NWRR (Phase 1) will be within the Dallington Grange site. Transport modelling using the Northamptonshire Strategic Transport Model (NSTM) has demonstrated that the traffic volume in Northampton is high in the base year of 2015; particularly on key strategic routes including Harlestone Road, the A508, Brampton Lane, and the A5076. Modelled traffic flows indicate that there is a significant volume of traffic in the AM and PM peak. Traffic levels on such roads, and Northampton in general, are expected to rise and congestion become progressively worse in line with the ambitious growth targets for the area. To alleviate existing traffic issues and support the impact of future forecast growth, including access to and from the Dallington Grange development site. The Northampton North West Relief Road is proposed to provide the necessary new link between the existing A428 Harlestone Road and A5199 Welford Road. The NWRR is scheduled to be developed in two parts: • Phase 1, the section from the A428 to just south of the railway line at Grange Farm, will be constructed by the developers of Dallington Grange SUE. • Phase 2, which continues northbound from Grange Farm crossing over the railway to the A5199, will be managed by NCC. The strategic and economic benefits of the full length of the route, both Phase 1 and Phase 2, are appraised in this FBC, with the exception of the environmental appraisal which has been undertaken for Phase 2 only in line with the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) developed for the NWRR Phase 2 Planning Application. The latest available details of the cost and management are also provided in this document. The NWRR is identified as one of the eight key actions to support the growth and regeneration of Northampton as part of a programme of highway improvements in the Northampton Town Transport Strategy. The road is also supported in the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) and the Northamptonshire Local Transport Plan (LTP). Transport modelling undertaken previously for the JCS demonstrates that the current road network in and around north Northampton cannot accommodate the level of growth proposed without further intervention.
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
1.3 THE NEED FOR CHANGE The current and future problems identified that demonstrate the need for the scheme to support the existing transport network include: • Problem 1 - Areas with high unemployment · In some cases, almost 50% of residents by Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOAs) in the north, east and north-west of Northampton are not in employment. Opportunities to reduce the imbalance in employment in Northampton need to be identified in line with the underlying cause of this problem. • Problem 2 - Areas of high deprivation · Some parts of the north east and north west of Northampton are within the top 10 – 20% of the most deprived areas in the UK. Investment is necessary in these areas to support prosperity and reduce inequality in a local and national context. • Problem 3 - Dominance of car travel to work · Approximately 75% of journeys to work are made by car and van as a driver or a passenger, meaning that only around 25% of journeys to work in Northampton are made using sustainable modes, according to 2011 Census data. Most of these journeys to work by car are short distance trips which are less than 5km. Furthermore, the high mode share of car journeys suggests that driving is embedded in the journey to work culture of residents of Northampton, and that mode shift even for short distance journeys would be difficult to instigate without a range of significant interventions, behaviour change and time to see an impact. · There is also the prominent issue of the environmental impact stemming from the dominance of car related travel, which contributes to congestion and high traffic flows in Northampton. Air quality has been assessed in Northampton and where a failure is identified, the area concerned will usually be declared an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA). There are various AQMAs in Northampton, therefore the need to improve air quality is evident. • Problem 4 - Accident hot spots · Based on latest accident data available covering a five-year period between 2012 and 2017, the majority of accidents in Northampton occur on arterial routes into the town centre. The greatest concentration of accidents on routes in Northampton involve the A508, the A43 and the A45. There have been a number of fatal accidents on key routes to the north of Northampton including on the A508, Boughton Road and Sywell Road. • Problem 5 - Supporting freight movements · Northampton is located at the heart of the national freight network within the ‘golden triangle’, the largest concentration of major logistics and distribution operations in Europe, and home to the Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), located off the A5 in north west Northamptonshire. The ‘golden triangle’ benefits from access to over 90% of the UK population within a four-hour drive. In addition, the proposed Northampton Gateway SRFI has been submitted to the Planning Inspectorate (PINS) and is anticipated to be decided by the end of 2019, demonstrating the growing demand for freight and distribution hub growth in Northampton.
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
· To support local and national economic growth, it is important that the strategic freight network is managed to ensure the ease of movement through the county and to reduce the impacts of congestion and ‘lost productive time’ in line with the objectives of the Northampton Road Freight Strategy. • Problem 6 - Future increase in traffic flows on key routes · Future increase in traffic flows on key routes in line with development proposals without mitigation in the form of transport interventions. Traffic flows based on modelling undertaken show that traffic volume in the influence area of the scheme is high in the base year of 2015. It is estimated that there will be significant traffic growth between 2015 and 2031; therefore, if nothing is done, forecasted residential growth and economic growth will continue to add to traffic on the existing highway network without any intervention. • Problem 7 - Facilitating future housing growth · The West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) proposes the delivery of eight Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs) in the Northampton Related Development Area in the period up to 2029, including a total of approximately 16,850 houses; 20ha of local employment opportunities; 10 primary schools; and a minimum of 8 new local centres. The SUEs in north west and west of Northampton have limited proposed sustainable interventions in comparison to other areas of the town, with the exception of the Northampton Railway Station Interchange in west Northampton. · Specifically, Dallington Grange is a proposed Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE) sought to deliver 3,000 new homes in the north west of Northampton; part of the NWRR (Phase 1) will be within the Dallington Grange site. • Problem 8 - Significant development proposals for Northampton · Policy and Strategy for Northamptonshire highlights plans for future regeneration in Northampton including the redevelopment of Northampton Waterside Enterprise Zone. In addition to regeneration sites, the West Northamptonshire JCS highlights significant development proposals are planned in the Northampton Central Area Action Plan (NCAAP) for Northampton up to 2026, including a net increase of circa: - 37,500 sqm of retail (non-food) floor space - 3,000 sqm of convenience retail (food) floor space - 100,000 sqm of office development floor space · This development needs to be supported by the right transport infrastructure to ensure Northampton can operate efficiently with the necessary network capacity. The issues identified highlight the need for intervention in North West Northampton, with options assessment and appraisal identifying the development of the North West Relief Road as the preferred option. This FBC builds upon this the case set out to date to update the need and benefits of the development of the road.
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
1.4 OBJECTIVES Having established the current and future problems and challenges in Northampton, scheme specific objectives were developed which include: • Objective 1 - To support free flow traffic movements on key local routes in North West Northampton during off peak periods, and minimise delay during peak periods. • Objective 2 - To increase journey time reliability and minimise travel costs on key strategic routes in wider Northamptonshire. • Objective 3 – To unlock housing development at Dallington Grange. • Objective 4 - To support the delivery and purchase of planned housing development sites in North West Northampton to support economic growth. • Objective 5 - To improve access to employment sites for residents in North West Northampton. • Objective 6 - To reduce the number and severity of accidents in North West Northampton, particularly in hot spot areas. • Objective 7 - To support the reduction of emissions and better air quality in the vicinity of AQMAs in Northampton.
NORTHAMPTON NORTH WEST RELIEF ROAD CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70045931 | Our Ref No.: 70021598 January 2020 Northamptonshire County Council
2 STRATEGIC CASE
2.1 INTRODUCTION The Strategic Case outlines the need for the scheme including the alignment of the NWRR with the South-East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP) strategic priorities to support development and economic growth in the South-East Midlands. In November 2017, SEMLEP published a revised Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) which sets out the ambition and strategic economic direction for the South-East Midlands up to 2050, seeking to double GVA by 2050 through the delivery of seven strategic priorities. These strategic priorities are covered by four themes: • Growing business: 1. To use our strengths in high-performance technology, including Next Generation Transport, and across sectors more broadly, to deliver commercialisation of innovation, driving growth within the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Corridor. 2. To deliver increased levels of private sector investment, including Foreign Direct Investment into the area, and grow jobs by 10% by 2025. 3. To deliver greater trading activity between companies in our area and elsewhere, with a special emphasis on emerging global markets, but also working to retain good European links. • Growing people: 4. To deliver an integrated and employer-led approach to skills attainment to ensure that our population is aware of, and has the attributes and competencies required for, a modern, competitive economy. This will comprise all pathways including delivery of 170,000 apprenticeships in the decade to 2025/26 and opportunities for up-skilling, re-skilling and re- engagement. • Growing places: 5. To deliver sufficient new homes – with 130,000 planned in the decade to 2025/26 – to meet the needs of our growing population, with an emphasis on accelerating the completion of units with planning consent. 6. To deliver infrastructure needed to achieve our full growth potential, including East-West Rail and the Expressway, and much-improved Broadband and wireless connections. • Cross-cutting: 7. To ensure that this growth is undertaken in a manner that promotes social inclusion and environmental sustainability. As the scheme supports infrastructure provision and aims to support increased economic activity, it is well placed to create conditions which encourage growth and inward investment. Opportunities will arise from supporting a reduction in congestion on existing routes and enhancing transport connectivity, as recognised to provide a competitive advantage to firms and local authorities. Sustainable transport should be supported to manage any additional congestion through Northamptonshire’s existing interventions to ensure it will not be detrimental to local economic growth.
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This section is structure in line with the headers considered in WebTAG Transport Business Case Guidance. Table 2-1 sets out the structure of the Strategic Case, updated following the development of the Outline Business Case.
Table 2-1 - Strategic Case Structure
CHAPTER DESCRIPTION
History of the Project Sets out the history of the scheme.
Geographic Context Sets out the key background of the scheme and its location.
Case for Change Sets out the need for intervention in the form of a relief road and the interrelationship between problem areas and scheme objectives. Details the eight problems established in the OAR.
Interdependencies Considers internal / external factors upon which the successful delivery of the project is dependant.
Outcomes without the NWRR Sets out the potential outcomes should the NWRR scheme not be delivered.
Description of the Scheme Sets out the key background information of the scheme.
Evidence of Strategic Fit Highlights the strategic fit of the NWRR scheme in regard to national, regional and local transport policy and strategic objectives.
Development of Four Strategic Sets out the four themes and how the four themes highlighted for the scheme were Themes derived from four policy drivers: Theme 1 - Facilitating housing growth. Theme 2 - Enabling national and international connectivity. Theme 3 - Sustaining and supporting economic growth to develop Northampton Town Centre as the key regional centre. Theme 4 - Promoting sustainable development.
Fit with SEMLEP Strategic Sets out the interrelationship between the SEMLEP core themes/priorities and the Priorities alignment of the schemes four themes.
Evolution of the Scheme: From Outlines the vision and scheme objectives. Concept to Objectives
Traffic Modelling Details the traffic modelling undertaken for the study area, including the fixed demand forecast modelling and the variable demand forecast for sensitivity analysis.
Stakeholders Outlines the main stakeholder groups and their contribution to the project. Identifies any evidence developed or provided by these groups relevant to the project.
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CHAPTER DESCRIPTION
Developing the Objectives: From Sets out that the OAR went through an initial sift and EAST to establish the NWRR Scope to Options scheme as the preferred option for intervention.
Constraints Sets out the high-level engineering and environmental constraints e.g. river floodplain, railway line, character of the landscape, etc.
Risks Sets out risks facing the project and describes the risk management including scheme risk register.
Options Sets out all the options for the relief road following the consideration of a number of options throughout the design process. Identifies risks associated with each option and those risks common to all options.
Measures of Success Establishes specific, measurable, achievable, realistic objectives that will support the mitigation of the problems identified. Shows how the objectives align with the strategic aims.
Summary Concludes the Strategic Case with summary of the chapter and final remarks.
2.2 HISTORY OF THE PROJECT A scheme to connect the A428 and A5199 in North West Northampton has been under consideration for many years and was last consulted on in the late 1980s. A preferred route was agreed as part of the Northampton Local Plan (2012), however in line with other priorities at the time, the scheme was not considered for further development. The need for the scheme was re-established in the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) (2014) due to the designation of additional growth sites. Subsequently in January 2016, the Northamptonshire County Council Cabinet decided that the scheme would be one of the County’s next key priorities for a major road scheme. Work has been undertaken in relation to the scheme and the NWRR was consulted on between June and August 2017. 64% of those responding to the consultation supported the need for the NWRR. The precise alignment both horizontally and vertically had not yet been determined, as well as the location and form of junctions, due to the scheme being in early stages of development. As such, the NWRR has strong public and political support. Following the 2017 consultation, the preferred route and next steps for delivery of the NWRR were agreed in the October 2018 Northamptonshire County Council Cabinet Meeting (The outputs of this meeting are included as part of appendices to the Communications Plan at the rear of this document and are available in the public domain). The Dallington Grange Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE), of which the NWRR will provide the primary access route into the site, received outline planning permission in November 2018. The Outline Business Case (OBC) for the North-West Relief Road was submitted to SEMLEP in March 2019 and subsequently approved to be taken to FBC.
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The NWRR scheme will be constructed in two parts, Phase 1 and Phase 2. Phase 1 will be constructed by the developers of Dallington Grange and is the section from the A428 to just south of the railway line at Grange Farm. Planning permission for the section of the road within Dallington Grange (Phase 1) has already been granted by Northampton Borough Council. Phase 2 continues northbound from Grange Farm, crossing over the railway to the A5199. In conjunction with the Phase 2 Planning Application, public information events took place in June 2019 to provide further information detailing the NWRR scheme. A Planning Application for the NCC section (Phase 2) of the scheme was submitted in June 2019 by Northamptonshire County Council. This can be found on the Northamptonshire County Planning Portal, application number 19/00045/CCDFUL. Northamptonshire Highways Development Control officers have subsequently reviewed the Transport Assessment (TA) associated with the Planning Application and provided comments. To address these comments, additional work has been undertaken to produce a Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA). This TAA provides proposed off- site mitigation measures to support the evidence towards the Planning Application. The TAA was submitted on the 26th September 2019; following this there was a 30-day period for comments up to 26th October 2019. A decision on the outcome of the Planning Application for the NCC section (Phase 2) of the NWRR is anticipated in 2020. 2.3 GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 2.3.1 LOCATION Northampton is the county town of Northamptonshire, situated in the East Midlands. It has a key strategic position in the East Midlands, located 54 miles south east of Birmingham and 68 miles north west of London. The county and the area around the town is predominantly rural in nature. There are several other settlements and towns nearby including Milton Keynes to the south, Rugby to the north west, and Wellingborough to the north east. The proposed location of the NWRR is to the north west of Northampton Town Centre, to link the A428 Harlestone Road with the A5199 Welford Road, as illustrated in Figure 2-1. The road will serve to support access to housing development proposed to the west and north of Northampton, including Dallington Grange Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE). The road will also help to provide better connectivity east to west and west to east of north Northampton to reduce associated traffic issues such as bottlenecks, congestion, safety issues, and inefficient heavy goods vehicle (HGV) and freight movements.
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Figure 2-1 - NWRR connecting A428 and A5199
Source: Northamptonshire Highways 2.3.2 STRATEGIC AND MAJOR ROAD NETWORK The Strategic Road Network (SRN) surrounding Northampton provides key regional and national access to wider economic areas, as well as links for international connectivity. The M1 connects Northampton to London in the south and Leicester and Nottingham to the north. The A5 connects Northampton to Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), Milton Keynes and the West Midlands. The A14 connects Northampton to Cambridge, Rugby, the M6 and major freight ports to the east coast such as Felixstowe. Northampton benefits from being within the ‘golden triangle’, whereby 90% of the UK population can be reached within a four-hour drive and thus making it the ideal location for freight hubs. This is evidenced by the planned growth in distribution centres in the locality; such as the proposed Northampton Gateway SRFI, which was granted planning approval by the Secretary of State in October 2019 as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project. Northampton is also well located in terms of airports, with 5 international airports within a 1.5-hour drive. These being Birmingham Airport, East Midlands Airport, Luton Airport, Stansted Airport and Heathrow Airport. The Government is also committed to creating a Major Road Network (MRN) to allow for dedicated funding from the National Roads Fund to be used to improve the middle tier of the busiest and most economically important local authority A roads. In March 2018, England’s Economic Heartland
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(EEH) provided a consultation response in relation to the proposals for the creation of the MRN. The EEH welcomed the recognition of the strategic importance of roads owned and operated by Local Transport Authorities. The EEH is engaged in the development of the Transport Strategy for the Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge corridor, this transformational agenda will have implications for the identification of the MRN for the EEH. Therefore, the EEH will, as part of the development of the Transport Strategy, review the definition of the MRN and put forward a revised MRN as part of the draft Strategy. The SRN (motorways and trunk roads) and MRN (major local authority controlled A roads) in relation to Northampton and the NWRR visualised as the green link, are identified overleaf in Figure 2-2. As identified in the DfT’s ‘Proposals for the Creation of the Major Road Network’ (2017), the MRN seeks to: • reduce congestion; • support economic growth and rebalancing; • support housing delivery; • support all road users; and • support the SRN.
The MRN objectives align with the objectives of the Transport Investment Strategy (TIS) published in November 2017. The TIS seeks to address issues including congestion, the economy and housing; as well as supporting the development of the MRN to form a middle tier of roads sitting between the national SRN and the rest of the local road network.
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Figure 2-2 - Map of SRN and MRN surrounding Northampton
Source: Department for Transport 2.3.3 LOCAL ROAD NETWORK The A428 Harlestone Road, situated south-west of the proposed relief road, provides north south access into Northampton and to local residential areas such as Dallington and New Duston. This road is mainly single lane carriageway, operating at 40mph within its urban proximity before becoming national speed limit when it reaches rural areas. New Sandy Lane and Sandy Lane connect to Harlestone Road and provide local connections to the west and south west of Northampton, as well as connecting to the A4500 on to the M1 Junction 16. These roads are single lane carriageways and operate at national speed limit. The A5199 Welford Road, to the north-east of the proposed relief road, connects north of Northampton to the A508 and passes through Kingsthorpe, a predominantly residential area, running further northbound to the A14.
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2.3.4 NEW DEVELOPMENTS Policy and strategy for Northamptonshire highlights plans for future regeneration in Northampton including the redevelopment of Northampton Waterside Enterprise Zone. The University of Northampton opened their £330 million purpose-built ‘Waterside’ campus along the River Nene for 12,000 students with room to increase capacity in the future. The West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) identified the ‘gap’ that exists between the infrastructure needed and the likely levels of private-sector investment. The delivery of eight Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs) in the Northampton Related Development Area is highlighted in the JCS for the period up to 2029 with an expectation of a minimum average density of 35 dwellings per hectare within the proposed SUEs. SUEs will provide the opportunity for renewable, low carbon energy regeneration schemes. The locations of the proposed Northampton Related Development Area SUEs are outlined in Figure 2-3. This includes a total of approximately: • 16,850 houses; • 20ha of local employment opportunities; • 10 primary schools; and • Minimum of 8 new local centres.
Figure 2-3 - Location of Northampton SUEs proposed in the JCS
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2.4 CASE FOR CHANGE 2.4.1 INTRODUCTION There is a need for the appropriate infrastructure to provide additional capacity on the transport network and support ambitious housing growth targets for Northamptonshire. In the Northampton Related Development Area alone, 16,850 housing units are sought to be delivered through eight Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs) by 2029. These additional housing units will add demand to the existing highway infrastructure, therefore adding to increased journey times, congestion and potentially creating adverse impacts on journey time reliability. There is a need for the NWRR to support housing growth by providing additional highway capacity to the network. Specifically, in North West Northampton, three SUEs are planned to deliver approximately 6,600 homes including Dallington Grange (Kings Heath SUE), Buckton Fields (North of Whitehills) and Northampton West. As such, the NWWR would support these developments by increasing highway capacity in the local area and providing a new east-west link between the A428 and A5199. Modelling outputs indicate approximately 29% of trips with an origin or destination at Buckton Fields (North of Whitehills SUE) would use the NWRR in the peak hours in 2031. Additionally, modelling undertaken also demonstrates that approximately 21% of trips with an origin or destination at the Northampton West SUE would use the NWRR in the peak hours in 2031. Therefore, modelling indicates that the NWRR provides an essential east-west link in the north west of Northampton which supports the delivery of Buckton Fields and Northampton West SUEs. Of those three SUEs, the NWRR will provide direct suitable access to/from the Dallington Grange SUE site via the west from the A428. This development alone seeks to deliver approximately 3,000 homes, two primary schools, 1 secondary school, a local centre and employment land. The relief road would run along, but within, the northern aspect of the SUE site and provide direct access to the development. The illustrative masterplan for Dallington Grange is shown in Figure 2-4, which visualises the site access points into the Dallington Grange SUE from the North West Relief Road which runs along the northern aspect of the site. Ultimately, the NWRR is vital in unlocking the Dallington Grange site to enable the full SUE development to take place.
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Figure 2-4 - Dallington Grange SUE illustrative masterplan
Source: Northampton Borough Council Planning Portal / Pegasus Group Without the relief road, traffic arising from the development would fully load onto the existing road network, such as Mill Lane; causing congestion and restricting the full development potential of the Dallington Grange SUE site, indicating that the site is dependent on the delivery of the NWRR. In Northamptonshire Highways response to the Dallington Grange SUE Outline Planning Application (N/2014/1429), it is set out that the NWRR will need to be delivered in 2021. Therefore, Northamptonshire Highways assert there is a need to secure the delivery of the first section of the NWRR by 2022 to serve the SUE. Figure 2-5 demonstrates modelling outputs of the AM peak traffic flows in the 2031 Do-Minimum scenario in Passenger Car Units (PCUs) per hour, whereby the Dallington Grange development occurs, but the NWRR is not delivered. This highlights that all traffic loading onto the development goes via Harlestone Road and Mill Lane. Whereas Figure 2-6 illustrates AM peak flows in PCU per hour in 2031, with both Dallington Grange and the NWRR scheme going ahead. This demonstrates that traffic loading onto the Dallington Grange would be more evenly distributed. The modelling demonstrates the relief road taking a substantial amount of traffic flows onto Dallington Grange, which relieves pressure on the existing network, due to a reduced amount of development traffic loading onto Mill Lane and Harlestone Road.
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Figure 2-5 - 2031 AM Peak flows without NWRR
Figure 2-6 - 2031 AM Peak flows with NWRR
In addition, modelling outputs also produced volume capacity ratios for the highway network in 2031. Figure 2-7 demonstrates the volume capacity ratios at nodes in the network in 2031 should Dallington Grange be delivered without the NWRR. Figure 2-8 illustrates the volume capacity ratios
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at nodes in the network in 2031 should both Dallington Grange and the NWRR scheme go ahead. In comparison, the modelling outputs highlight that there is a greater likelihood of congestion on Harlestone Road and Mill Lane should the NWRR not be delivered. The modelling forecasts that, should the NWRR be delivered, additional congestion will occur at the northern end of the relief road. Therefore, a new link including two roundabout junctions has been incorporated into the design of the scheme to assist in distributing traffic more suitably, this is elaborated in more detail in the ‘Options’ chapter of the Strategic Case. In addition to this, a Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA) has been produced in support of the Planning Application for NWRR Phase 2. Within this TAA, measures have been developed to mitigate the forecast impact that delivering the NWRR will likely have on the wider Northampton highway network. The proposed off-site mitigation measures outlined in the TAA, for which has been agreed with Northamptonshire Highways’ Development Control Team, are set out below: • Traffic calming improvements in the villages of Boughton and Moulton; • Capacity mitigation improvements at A508 Harborough Road/ Brampton Lane/ Vyse Road Roundabout; • Capacity mitigation improvements at A428 Harlestone Road/ New Sandy Lane/ York Road (NWRR) Roundabout; and • Capacity improvements at A508 Harborough Road/ A5076 Holly Lodge Drive Signalised Junction.
Figure 2-7 - 2031 AM Peak volume capacity ratios without NWRR
V/C Ratio at Nodes < 50 % 50-75 75-85 >85
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Figure 2-8 - 2031 AM Peak volume capacity ratios with NWRR
V/C Ratio at Nodes < 50 % 50-75 75-85 >85
The Planning Application for Dallington Grange reiterates that the main access points into the site will be via three points. These being from Harlestone Road, from Mill Lane and from the NWRR scheme; with local concern raised about the traffic impact of the development, particularly on Harlestone Road. The modelling outputs above demonstrate worsening traffic conditions on Harlestone Road in 2031 should the NWRR not be delivered. In Northamptonshire Highways response to the Dallington Grange SUE Outline Planning Application (N/2014/1429), it is stated that the development is significant in scale and the build out of the development is intrinsically linked to the delivery of the NWRR, both in terms of delivery of the first section of the relief road and the completion of the second stage. As stated, Northamptonshire Highways set out that it was anticipated that the NWRR would need to be delivered in 2021, as such the Applicant has agreed to deliver the infrastructure in 2021. Therefore, Northamptonshire Highways assert there is a need to secure the delivery of the first section of the NWRR by 2022, with the completion of the NWRR within the site required to serve the development. Northamptonshire Highways also set out the need to provide the land required to dual the NWRR within the site to allow for future dualling. Current traffic flows show high volumes of traffic in the area, this is only forecast to increase in the future in line with housing and employment growth in Northampton and the wider Northamptonshire. Figure 2-9 and Figure 2-10 illustrate modelling outputs of the base year (2015) scenario showing traffic flows in the AM and PM peaks in PCUs around the NWRR area. These figures demonstrate high volumes of traffic in the Northampton area in the 2015 base year; with forecasted demand leading up to 2031 highlighting there will be further growth in traffic volumes.
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Figure 2-9 - 2015 AM Peak flows
Figure 2-10 - 2015 PM Peak flows
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The delivery of the relief road would add additional highway capacity to the local highway network and contribute towards alleviating these growing pressures on the network, to support a reduction in journey times and emissions. If nothing is done, housing and employment growth will continue to add to congestion; whereas the relief road will enhance connectivity and capacity. The NWRR will promote economic growth by providing greater connectivity to the Strategic Road Network (SRN) to support access to and growth for businesses in the north west of Northampton. The NWRR will also promote economic growth and regeneration proposals in Northampton Town Centre. Key strategic and policy documents set out the desire to underpin Northampton as the key regional centre by increasing retail and employment floorspace, and through the regeneration programme of the Northampton Waterside Enterprise. These growth proposals for the town centre are forecast to generate additional traffic into the town. The NWRR provides the opportunity to support the facilitation of these additional vehicles, to support journey times and congestion not only in the north west, but also on the highway network in the Town Centre. This enhanced connectivity would contribute to encouraging businesses to invest and locate in Northampton, supporting Policy N1 ‘The Regeneration of Northampton’ within the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy. The growth of the local economy would also contribute towards further employment and education opportunities, this along with increased accessibility, would promote the reduction in unemployment and deprivation within areas of Northampton. The scheme would also promote an improvement in the quality of life for Northamptonshire residents by providing additional highway capacity and releasing capacity of existing routes. This release of capacity is sought to encourage more active travel (cycling and walking trips); and increase safety on key roads in Northampton. Northampton currently has accident hot spots on key arterial routes into the town; the NWRR would promote a reduction in the number and severity of accidents in Northampton. Reduced congestion on key roads, such as Harlestone Road, would also seek to decrease emissions, thus improving local air quality. 2.4.2 PROBLEMS AND OBJECTIVES IDENTIFIED IN THE OAR The need for intervention originates from the eight problems / challenges and seven scheme objectives as established in the OAR. These are summarised in Figure 2-11 and demonstrate the interrelationship between the problems / challenges in the current and future situation in the area and the subsequent scheme objectives of the NWRR that aim to support the mitigation of these challenges.
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Figure 2-11 - Interrelationship between problem/challenges and objectives
2.4.3 PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES The following section expands upon the current and future problems / challenges within Northampton and the wider Northamptonshire region, which were established in the previously developed Option Assessment Report (OAR). 2.4.4 EXISTING PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES Problem / Challenge 1 – Areas of High Unemployment Figure 2-12 shows the percentage of residents in employment by MSOA level based on 2011 Census data. Opportunities to reduce the imbalance in employment in Northampton need to be identified, in line with the underlying causes of this problem. In some cases, almost 50% of residents by Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOAs) in the north, east and north-west of Northampton are not in employment.
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Figure 2-12 - Percentage of residents in employment at MSOA Level
Problem / Challenge 2 – Areas of High Deprivation Figure 2-13 demonstrates the Index of Multiple Deprivation by Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level based on 2011 Census data. Investment is necessary in areas to support prosperity and reduce inequality in a local and national context. Some parts of the north east and north west of Northampton are within the top 10 – 20% of deprived areas in the UK.
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Figure 2-13 - IMD at LSOA Level
Problem / Challenge 3 – Dominance of Car Travel to Work Approximately 75% of journeys to work are made by car / van as a driver or a passenger, meaning that only around 25% of journeys to work in Northampton are made using sustainable modes, according to 2011 Census data. Figure 2-14 shows the various methods of journey to work in Northampton, which is dominated by car travel. Many of these journeys to work by car are short distance trips which are less than 5km. Furthermore, the high mode share of car journeys suggests that driving is embedded in the journey to work culture of residents of Northampton, and that mode shift even for short distance journeys would be difficult to instigate without a range of significant interventions, behaviour change and time to see an impact. As well as the environmental impact of the dominance of car travel, this contributes to congestion and high traffic flows in Northampton. Air quality has been assessed in Northampton and where a failure is identified, the area concerned will usually be declared an AQMA. There are various AQMAs in Northampton, therefore the need to improve air quality is evident. This is reiterated by Northampton Borough Council Councillors voting to declare a ‘climate emergency’ in June 2019, in a bid to become carbon neutral by 2030.
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Figure 2-14 - Method of Journey to Work - Northampton
Problem / Challenge 4 – Accident Hot Spots Based on the latest accident data available covering a five-year period between 2012 and 2017, the majority of accidents in Northampton occur on arterial routes into the town centre. The greatest concentration of accidents on specific routes in Northampton during this period involves the A508, the A43 and the A45. There have been several fatal accidents on key routes to the north of Northampton including on the A508, Boughton Road and Sywell Road. Figure 2-15 demonstrates the spatial distribution of accidents by severity in the Northampton District.
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Figure 2-15 - Road Traffic Accidents by Severity 2012-2017
Problem / Challenge 5 – Supporting Freight Movements Northampton is located at the heart of the national freight network within the ‘golden triangle’, the largest concentration of major logistics and distribution operations in Europe, and home to the Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), located off the A5 in North West Northamptonshire. The ‘golden triangle’ benefits from access to over 90% of the UK population within a four-hour drive. In addition, the recently consented Northampton Gateway SRFI demonstrates the growing demand for freight and distribution hub growth in Northampton. In order to support local and national economic growth, it is important that the strategic freight network is managed to ensure the ease of movement through the county and to reduce the impacts of congestion and ‘lost productive time’ in line with the objectives of the Northamptonshire Road Freight Strategy. 2.4.5 FUTURE PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES Problem / Challenge 6 – Future increase in traffic flows Future increase in traffic flows in line with development proposals without mitigation in the form of transport interventions. Traffic flows based on modelling undertaken show that traffic volume in the influence area of the scheme is high in the base year of 2015. It is estimated that there will be significant traffic growth between 2015 and 2031; therefore, if nothing is done, forecasted residential and economic growth
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will continue to add to traffic on the existing highway network without any intervention. Figure 2-16 below illustrates the difference in traffic flows between 2031 Do-Minimum and 2015 base scenarios for the AM Peak; demonstrating increasing traffic flows in the future. Of particular note, Harlestone Road, Mill Lane and the A508 are anticipated to encounter significant growth in terms of traffic flows, as shown by the bold green lines representing growth from 2015 to 2031.
Figure 2-16 - Difference in flows between 2031 DM and 2015 base in AM Peak
Problem / Challenge 7 – Facilitating Future Housing Growth
The delivery of eight Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs) is highlighted in the JCS for the period up to 2029 with an expectation of a minimum average density of 35 dwellings per hectare within the proposed SUEs. SUEs provide the opportunity for renewable, low carbon energy regeneration schemes. The locations of the proposed Northampton SUEs are outlined in Figure 2-3. This includes a total of approximately:
• 16,850 houses; • 20ha of local employment opportunities; • 10 primary schools; and • Minimum 8 new local centres.
The SUEs in north west to west of Northampton have limited proposed sustainable interventions in comparison to other areas of the town, apart from the Northampton Railway Station Interchange in west Northampton.
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Specifically, Dallington Grange is a proposed SUE sought to deliver 3,000 new homes; part of the NWRR (Phase 1) will be within the Dallington Grange site. Following Northamptonshire Highways response to the SUE Planning Application, the developers are required to deliver the first phase of the NWRR by 2022, as it is anticipated it would need to be delivered by 2021. Further detail on the intrinsic link between Dallington Grange and the NWRR is provided in the subsequent Section 2.5 ‘Interdependencies’.
Problem / Challenge 8 – Significant Development Proposals for Northampton Policy and Strategy for Northamptonshire highlights plans for future regeneration in Northampton including the redevelopment of Northampton Waterside Enterprise Zone. In addition to regeneration sites, the West Northamptonshire JCS highlights significant development proposals are planned in the NCAAP for Northampton up to 2026, including a net increase of: • A minimum of 37,500 sqm of retail (non-food) floor space; • Circa 3,000 sqm of convenience retail (food) floor space; and • Circa 100,000 sqm of office development floor space. 2.5 INTERDEPENDENCIES The key dependent development is the Dallington Grange SUE. This is due to the NWRR running along the northern boundary of the SUE and providing direct access into the site from both the A428 and A5199. The development is dependent on access from the NWRR, as such the scheme is needed to prevent this traffic loading onto the existing network. The developers of Dallington Grange are also scheduled to construct the westernmost section from the A428 to just south of the railway. Both the SEMLEP SEP and West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy set out the need for significant housing growth in the area, with Dallington Grange providing a vital contribution to this target. As set out previously in the Strategic Case, Northamptonshire Highways response to the Dallington Grange SUE Planning Application outlines that the Dallington Grange development and the NWRR scheme are intrinsically linked. The developers are required to deliver the first phase of the NWRR, which is located within the SUE site by 2022, as it is anticipated it would need to be delivered by 2021. Completion of the NWRR within the site is stated as a vital mitigation measure required to serve the full development. The Dallington Grange SUE currently has outline planning permission. The design work to enable the Section 106 agreement to be signed is nearing completion, and it is anticipated that the Section 106 will be signed imminently. Once signed, the developers (Persimmon and David Wilson Homes) will have six weeks to take up the option to purchase the land from the owner, Althorp. There is no reason of understand that this option will not be taken. If the developers do take up the option, they will deliver NWRR Phase 1 as required by the Section 106 agreement. However, if they do not, the land owner Althorp will deliver the NWRR Phase 1 works, under the obligations of the Section 106 agreement. Althorp have confirmed that this would be the intention and they would then sell the development land for delivery of the housing, but with the infrastructure already in place. The Buckton Fields (North of Whitehills SUE) and Northampton West SUEs will also require the relief road to support their developments due to the proximity of the scheme to these future housing developments. Strategic modelling indicates that the NWRR would serve approximately 29% of origin/destination trips at Buckton Fields and 21% of origin/destination trips at Northampton West in
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peak hours of the forecast year 2031. These two SUEs, in addition to the Dallington Grange SUE, comprise the delivery of approximately 6,600 housing units in North West Northampton. It is considered that the NWRR will serve proposed housing growth to the North and West of Northampton, thus it is essential in helping to enable such growth aspirations. Having established the need or the scheme in the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy, the January 2016 cabinet meeting recognised that the relief road should be one of Northamptonshire County Councils (NCC) next priorities for major road schemes. Subject to land acquisitions and the relief road gaining planning permission, construction is planned to commence in 2020. 2.6 OUTCOMES WITHOUT THE NWRR The key outcome should the NWRR scheme not be delivered would be in regard to the development of Dallington Grange SUE with approximately 3,000 new dwellings proposed. The Dallington Grange SUE and the NWRR scheme are intrinsically linked. The delivery of 3,000 houses on Dallington Grange would not be met if the NWRR scheme is not delivered. Ultimately, the NWRR provides a key access point into the Dallington Grange site which would relieve pressure on Harlestone Road and Mill Lane, which are the other two access points into the site. In addition, modelling outputs for 2031 have demonstrated that the NWRR will play a significant role in providing additional capacity to serve the Buckton Fields and Northampton West SUEs. As previously set out in the ‘Case for Change’ and ‘Interdependencies’ sections of the FBC, select link analysis was undertaken to demonstrate the role of the NWRR in supporting these two SUEs. These outputs indicate approximately 29% of trips with an origin or destination at Buckton Fields and 21% of trips with an origin or destination at Northampton West SUE would use the NWRR in the peak hours in the future year of 2031. Therefore, the NWRR supports the delivery of these two SUEs by facilitating east-west traffic movement through the relief road. If the scheme was not delivered, trips that previously had an origin or destination to either of these SUEs via the NWRR would instead have to use alternative routes, thus adding additional pressures onto the existing highway network. The NWRR will also support the tackling of wider issues identified in Northampton, such as unemployment, car dominance and accident hot spots on key routes by providing additional capacity to the highway network. This additional capacity in turn has the potential to increase journey time reliability, reduce delays and provide a vital east-west link in the north west of Northampton; thus, supporting opportunities to address the problems and challenges identified in Northampton. The Social and Distributional Impacts Assessment outlines that in the Fixed Demand core scenario, an estimated 559 accidents and 708 casualties will be saved by the scheme over the 60-year appraisal period. The Assessment also outlines that it is likely that the NWRR will slightly benefit physical activity in Northampton by presenting the opportunity for schemes to promote active travel. Additional detail can be found in the Social and Distributional Impacts Assessment which is located in Appendix F of the FBC. 2.7 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCHEME: WHAT WILL BE DELIVERED The NWRR is identified as one of the eight key actions to support the growth of Northampton and regeneration of its town centre as part of a programme of highway improvements in the Northampton Town Transport Strategy. The need for the relief road is identified in a wider number of
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local and regional transport policies and strategy documents including the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy and Northamptonshire Local Transport Plan. The Northampton North-West Relief Road will see the construction of a new highway route from New Sandy Lane/A428 in an eastern direction for approximately 2km to the south of the existing Northampton Loop Railway Line and east of Grange Farm, constructed by the developers of Dallington Grange SUE (Phase 1). Part of the westernmost section of the road from the A428 has already been constructed (namely York Way) as part of the Harlestone Manor development, which adjoins the New Sandy Lane highway scheme from the West. The easternmost section of the relief road (Phase 2) will be managed by Northamptonshire County Council. This section will see the route continue northbound towards the A5199. Traffic modelling indicates the existing river bridge on the A5199 would not be suitable for such significant predicted traffic flows. As such, a new roundabout link is proposed as part of the design of Phase 2 to the south of the A5199 Northampton Road / Sandy Lane and at the A5199 Welford Road/Brampton Lane junction to ensure traffic is distributed suitably at the north of the scheme. This new link will allow for a degraded section of the A5199, which will be used solely for Non-Motorised Users (NMUs), such as pedestrians and horse riders. Further detail on this new link and the two roundabout junctions is provided in the ‘Options’ chapter, which is detailed later in the Strategic Case. Figure 2-17 visualises the NWRR scheme in relation to the surrounding North West Northampton area and the local highway network. The NWRR is accessed via the A428 from the west and the A5199 from the north east; with three access points from the relief road scheme into the Dallington Grange SUE. The Figure demonstrates the NWRR Phase 1 (developer section) in blue as a consented road; the NWRR Phase 2 (NCC section) is identified by the green line; and the Dallington Grange SUE is shown as the pink shaded area. The local highway network is also visualised, as well as the Sandy Lane Relief Road Phase 2 also identified in blue as a consented road. The design speed for the scheme is 60 mph in terms of alignments and highway features, however speed limits are to be applied to the relief road meaning that it is anticipated that speed limits vary between 40 mph to 60 mph. The NWRR scheme proposes the closures and diversions of Public Rights of Way (PRoW), including footpaths and bridleways, within the scheme locality. These diversions include the closure of a level crossing, with the footpath route to be diverted underneath the existing flood arches of the rail line. Phase 1 of the NWRR is proposed to include a ‘new shared cycle path and separate grassed route for horses’; with Phase 2 of the scheme proposed to include a shared footway/cycleway. This demonstrates that the integration and creation of routes for NMUs, including pedestrians, cyclists and horse riders, has been a key integral element throughout the design process. Further details on the proposed closures and diversions of PRoW are provided in Section 2.17 in line with stakeholder feedback on these changes.
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Figure 2-17 - Map of the NWRR in relation to North West Northampton
2.8 EVIDENCE OF STRATEGIC FIT This chapter highlights the strategic fit of the scheme in regard to national, regional and local transport policy and strategic objectives. The main documents considered are set out in Figure 2-18 by their national, regional and local coverage. Where specific objectives, policies or strategic statements are given a simple red / amber / green assessment of the strategic fit has been made based on the high-level alignment of the potential opportunities presented by the development of the scheme. Green indicates that the relief road proposals are well-matched to the objective, Amber suggests less direct alignment but still complimentary, whereas Red would suggest no alignment with policies or even a potential conflict of priorities.
Figure 2-18 - Policies and Strategies
Transport HE Strategic National UK National Investment Business NPPF Infrastructure Industrial Strategy Plan Delivery Plan Strategy
South East SEMLEP Local South-East Northamptonshire Midlands Industrial Regional Midlands SEP Transportation Plan Transport Strategy Strategy
Northampton Town West West Northamptonshire Local Transport Stratgy Northamptonshire JCS IDP
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2.8.1 NATIONAL POLICIES Transport Investment Strategy (July 2017) The Transport Investment Strategy (TIS) sets out how recent progress through capital investment will be built on, through the investment decisions to be taken and how responses will be realistic and pragmatic towards todays challenges. This will drive progress towards fulfilling the aims of the Industrial Strategy and put the travelling public at the heart of the choices made. Table 2-2 below summarises the objectives and policies in the TIS.
Table 2-2 - TIS Objectives Summary
POLICY / STRATEGY SUMMARY OF POLICY STRATEGIC FIT
Create a more reliable, less “Our intensively used networks are ageing and face increasing congested, and better- demands, creating delays and undermining reliability. In places connected transport network they don’t provide the connections people and businesses that works for the users who need.” rely on it.
Build a stronger, more “Our national productivity lags behind our countries and balanced economy by prosperity hasn’t been shared evenly between different places, enhancing productivity and leaving some communities feeling left behind.” responding to local growth priorities
Enhance our global “Our long-term success in a globalised world will depend on our competitiveness by making ability to attract job-creating investment in our industrial Britain a more attractive place strengths and to trade as frictionlessly as possible with partners to trade and invest old and new.”
Support the creation of new “We face an immense challenge to provide the houses that housing people need in the places they need them. Transport infrastructure is one of the keys to unlocking development.”
Highways England Strategic Business Plan (2015 – 2020) The Strategic Business Plan has been developed in response to the governments Road Investment Strategy. The SRN includes the M1, A5, A43 and A45 around the NWRR. The performance specification sets out eight key areas that will be monitored including making the network safer, user satisfaction, smoother flow of traffic, economic growth, better environmental outcomes, helping cyclists, walkers and vulnerable users, real efficiency and keeping the network in good condition. Table 2-3 sets out the three strategies to transform England’s national roads.
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Table 2-3 - Highways England Strategic Business Plan Summary
POLICY / STRATEGY SUMMARY OF POLICY STRATEGIC FIT
Modernise the network “Provide more capacity and better connections by: • Developing a national spine of Smart Motorways and adding new capacity at key points on the network; • Upgrading key non-motorway routes to the new Expressway standard; • Doing more to ensure a network has a positive impact on the environment and neighbouring communities; and, • Improving facilities for cyclist, pedestrians and other road users.”
Maintain the network “Take a longer term and more efficient approach to maintaining our roads by: • Upgrading some of the busiest junctions and alleviating many of the worst bottlenecks; • Resurfacing much of the network and improving the condition of our other assets; • Designing and packaging our work in a way that improves productivity and minimises the disruption to our customers.”
Operate the network “Keep traffic moving and better inform our customers by: • Improving information to help people make better decisions before and during their journeys; • Increasing availability through better planned road works; • Working with others to respond more effectively to incidents that cause the most congestion.”
Planning for the future “We will improve our planning for the next decade and beyond. This will mean: • Taking a more responsive and coherent approach to planning – one that is better understood by our customers, staff, suppliers and partners; • Giving stakeholders more of a say in how we develop the network at a national and local level; • Exploring new and better ways to stimulate growth; • Encouraging innovation, especially to exploit the benefits of vehicle and roadside technology.”
Growing our capability “We will support our people and suppliers to enable them to perform to the best of their ability, to innovate and keep improving by: • Helping them to develop their skills to get better at what they do; • Being a more diverse and inclusive organisation where our values and behaviour are used to hold ourselves and other to account; • Developing better ways of working to drive efficiencies and build our business capability.”
Building stronger relationships “We will continue to build relationships with our partners to help us meet the increasing investment challenge by: • Changing the way, we design and package our work;
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POLICY / STRATEGY SUMMARY OF POLICY STRATEGIC FIT
• Working with our suppliers to develop their capacity and capability; • Working with Transport Focus to better understand and improve people's experience on the network; • Working more closely with regional and local partners tasked with delivering economic growth."
Efficient and effective delivery "We will improve journeys to support economic growth by: • Focusing on how to better design and deliver our major schemes; • Giving more weight to the impact of disruption when making investment decisions; • Becoming better at delivering projects and programmes to give greater value for money for the tax payer; • Doing more to understand and manage our assets to become a more efficient and customer orientated organisation."
Improving customer service “We will deliver a better service that aligns with our customers’ expectations by: • Building a comprehensive understanding of the needs of our customers, recognising that different customers have different needs at different times; • Giving our customers information that is clear, reliable and easy to understand; • Helping customers better understand what we do and why we do it; • Ensuring our customers have more of a voice in determining investment priorities and how work is delivered; • Providing for the needs of cyclists, pedestrians and others who walk or ride on, near or across the network.”
National Planning Policy Framework (February 2019) The revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published February 2019 and sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these should be applied. It provides a framework within which locally-prepared plans for housing and other developments are expected to be produced. Table 2-4 summaries the NPPF sustainable development objectives. Table 2-5 provides a summary of the key relevant sections of the NPPF. Table 2-4 - NPPF Sustainable Development Objectives
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC FIT
An Economic Objective To help build a strong, responsive and competitive economy, by ensuring that sufficient land of the right types is available in the right places and at the right time to support growth, innovation and improved productivity; and by identifying and coordinating the provision of infrastructure.
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A Social Objective To support strong, vibrant and healthy communities, by ensuring that a sufficient number and range of homes can be provided to meet the needs of present and future generations; and by fostering a well-designed and safe built environment, with accessible services and open spaces that reflect current and future needs and support communities’ health, social and cultural well-being.
An Environmental Objective To contribute to protecting and enhancing our natural, built and historic environment; including making effective use of land, helping to improve biodiversity, using natural resources prudently, minimising waste and pollution, and mitigating and adapting to climate change, including moving to a low carbon economy.
Table 2-5 - NPPF Summary
SECTION PARAGRAPH SUMMARY OF SECTION STRATEGIC FIT
Delivering a 59 To support the Government’s objective of significantly sufficient boosting the supply of homes, it is important that a supply of sufficient amount and variety of land can come forward where homes it is needed, that the needs of groups with specific housing requirements are addressed and that land with permission is developed without unnecessary delay.
80 Planning policies and decisions should help create the conditions in which businesses can invest, expand and adapt. Significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth and productivity, taking into account both local business needs and wider opportunities for development.
81 Planning policies should: • Set out a clear economic vision and strategy which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth; • Set criteria, or identify strategic sites, for local and inward investment; Building a • Seek to address potential barriers to investment, such strong, as inadequate infrastructure; and, competitive • Be flexible enough to accommodate needs not anticipated economy in the plan.
84 Planning policies and decisions should recognise that sites to meet local business and community needs in rural areas may have to be found adjacent to or beyond existing settlements, and in locations that are not well served by public transport. In these circumstances it will be important to ensure that development is sensitive to its surroundings, does not have an unacceptable impact on local roads and exploits any opportunities to make a location more sustainable (for example by improving the scope for access on foot, by cycling or by public transport). The use of previously developed land, and sites that are physically well related to existing
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SECTION PARAGRAPH SUMMARY OF SECTION STRATEGIC FIT
settlements, should be encouraged where suitable opportunities exist.
Ensuring the 85 Planning policies and decisions should support the role that vitality of town town centres play at the heart of local communities, by taking centres a positive approach to their growth, management and adaption.
Promoting 91 Planning policies and decisions should aim to achieve healthy and healthy, inclusive and safe places which: promote social safe interaction; are safe and accessible; and enable, and support, communities healthy lifestyles.
103 Significant development should be focused on locations which are or can be made sustainable, through limiting the need to travel and offering a genuine choice of transport modes.
110 Applications for development should: • Give priority first to pedestrians and cycle movements and second, so far as possible – to facilitating access to high quality public transport; Promoting • Address the needs of people with disabilities and reduced sustainable mobility in relation to all modes of transport; transport • Create places that are safe, secure and attractive – which minimise the scope for conflicts between pedestrians, cyclists and vehicles, avoid unnecessary street clutter, and respond to local character and design standards. • Allow for the efficient delivery of goods, and access by service and emergency vehicles; and • Be designed to enable charging of plug in and other ultra- low emission vehicles in safe, accessible and convenient locations.
Achieving well- 127 Planning policies should ensure that developments: designed places • Will function well and add to the overall quality of the area over the lifetime of the development; • Are visually attractive as a result of good architecture, layout and appropriate and effective landscaping; • Are sympathetic to local character and history, including the surrounding built environment and landscape setting, while not preventing or discouraging appropriate innovation or change; • Establish or maintain a strong sense of place; • Optimise the potential of the site to accommodate and sustain an appropriate amount and mix of development and support local facilities and transport networks; and, • Create places that are safe, inclusive and accessible and which promote health and well-being.
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National Infrastructure Delivery Plan 2016 – 2021 (March 2016) The National Infrastructure Delivery Plan (NIDP) updates the previous NIDP and outlines details of £483 billion of investment in over 600 infrastructure projects and programmes in all sectors and spread across the UK to 2020-21 and beyond. Alongside economic infrastructure, for the first time this plan includes sections on how infrastructure will support large scale housing and regeneration projects alongside key social infrastructure (Schools, hospitals and prisons), in line with the government’s £100 billion commitment. The NIDP sets out what will be built and where, focusing specifically on nearly £300 billion of the pipeline that will be delivered over the next 5 years to 2020-21. Table 2-6 below summarises the key objectives from the NIDP.
Table 2-6 - NIDP Summary of Objectives
Objective Summary STRATEGIC FIT
Safety Making the network safer, with a target of 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured on the SRN against the 2005-09 period by the end of 2020.
Satisfaction By 31st March 2017, 90% of people responding to the National Road Users’ Satisfaction Survey need to be either fairly or very satisfied.
Congestion relief Minimise delay and inconvenience to road users and ensuring at least 97% of the SRN is available to road users and ensuring at least 85% of incidents are cleared within 1 hour.
Economic Growth Encouraging economic growth by working to minimise delay on the SRN.
Environmental Delivering better environmental outcomes.
Active Travel Helping cyclists, pedestrians and other vulnerable users of the SRN.
Capital Savings Achieving real efficiency; delivering total capital savings of at least £1.2 billion by the end of the Road period 1.
Maintaining roads Keeping the SRN in good condition; including an ambitious resurfacing programme.
UK Industrial Strategy (November 2017) The UK Industrial Strategy, published November 2017, sets out the long-term plan to boost the productivity and earning power of people throughout the UK. The document outline five foundations of productivity: ideas, people, infrastructure, business environment and places. The Strategy also sets out four grand challenges to put the UK at the forefront of industries of the future: artificial intelligence and the data economy; clean growth; future of mobility; and an ageing society.
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Table 2-7 summarises the policies from the UK Industrial Strategy.
Table 2-7 - UK Industrial Strategy Summary of Policies
Policy Summary STRATEGIC FIT
Ideas • Raise total research and development (R&D) investment to 2.4% of GDP by 2027. • Increase the rate of R&D tax credit to 12%. • Invest £725m in new Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund programmes to capture the value of innovation.
People • Establish a technical education system that rivals the best in the world to stand alongside our world-class higher education system. • Invest an additional £406m in maths, digital and technical education, helping to address the shortage of science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) skills. • Create a new National Retraining Scheme that supports people to re-skill, beginning with a £64m investment for digital and construction training.
Infrastructure • Increase the National Productivity Investment Fund to £31bn, supporting investments in transport, housing and digital infrastructure. • Support electric vehicles through £400m charging infrastructure investment and an extra £100m to extend the plug-in car grant. • Boost our digital infrastructure with over £1bn of public investment, including £176m for 5G and £200m for local areas to encourage roll out of full-fibre networks.
Business Environment • Launch and roll-out Sector Deals – partnerships between government and industry aiming to increase sector productivity. The first Sector Deals are in life sciences, construction, artificial intelligence and the automotive sector. • Drive over £20bn of investment in innovative and high potential businesses, including through establishing a new £2.5bn Investment Fund, incubated in the British Business Bank. • Launch a review of the actions that could be most effective in improving the productivity and growth of small and medium sized businesses, including how to address what has been called the ‘long tail’ of lower productivity firms.
Places • Agree Local Industrial Strategies that build on local strengths and deliver on economic opportunities. • Create a mew Transforming Cities fund that will provide £1.7bn for intracity transport. This will fund projects that drive productivity by improving connections within city regions. • Provide £42m to pilot a Teacher Development Premium. This will test the impact of a £1000 budget for high quality professional development for teachers working in areas that have fallen behind.
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2.8.2 REGIONAL POLICIES South East Midlands Strategic Economic Plan (November 2017) The mission of the South-East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP) Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) is to “build on our reputation as a premier location for growth, innovation, creativity and world-leading technologies, resulting in the doubling of GVA by 2050.” The plan sets out the ambition and strategic economic direction for the South-East Midlands to 2050, focusing particularly on the next 10 years. It details priority areas where SEMLEP and partners will target investments and actions to create and support the right conditions for successful growth, doubling the size of the area’s economy by 2050. The Strategic Economic Plan provides detailed economic evidence that underpins long-term strategic priorities. Table 2-8 below summarises the SEMLEP policies and objectives.
Table 2-8 - SEMLEP Summary of Objectives
Policy Summary STRATEGIC FIT
Growing Business • Build on the area’s ‘showcase sector’ strengths – in High Performance Technology, Manufacturing & Advanced Technology, Logistics and the Creative & Cultural sector – by working with showcase sector groups and partners to produce and deliver sector-specific growth plans; • Promote the South-East Midlands to prospective investors, including by working in partnership with local authorities, developers and commercial agents to match prospective businesses with appropriate employment land; • Encourage businesses to explore new markets, and working to generate a talent pipeline of people with the skills that employers require; • Deliver services to meet local business needs, with a specific role to assist scale-up businesses to achieve a sustained growth through tailored support and access to finance; • To access funding from government to build on the area’s impressive innovation and growth record; • Support delivery of Local Growth Fund projects to progress innovation in the High-Performance Technology sector.
Growing People • Work through skills sector forums and employer engagement to determine required skills needs; • Disseminate labour market information; • Support school and college staff to embed employer-drive core skills and competencies into the curriculum; • Ensure signposting of provision and pathways for continuous personal development; • Strengthen social inclusion and labour market engagement.
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Policy Summary STRATEGIC FIT
Growing Places • Strengthen cross-growth corridor governance, catalyse the further development of East-West Links; • Improve local connectivity; • Accelerate the completion of homes; • Develop an Energy Strategy; • Improve digital and mobile infrastructure; • Improve transport infrastructure and unlock housing and employment land.
Cross Cutting Themes • Promote social inclusion; • Support rural businesses; • Facilitate projects that promote energy and resource efficiency in businesses.
Northamptonshire Transportation Plan (March 2012) The aim of the Northamptonshire Transportation Plan (NTP) is ‘Fit for Purpose’ which means “creating a transport network that delivers exactly what Northamptonshire needs to be able to function plus what it needs to be able to grow”. The plan reflects the changing nature of the county, reflecting new ways of thinking, not only in regard to transport, but also lifestyles and how people go about their daily lives. It looks to find new ways of working to ensure that Northamptonshire delivers best value for money to residents and council tax partners. Table 2-9 summarises the key objectives from the NTP.
Table 2-9 - Summary of NTP Objectives
POLICY SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Fit for…the Future Creating a transport system that supports and encourages growth and plans for the future impacts of growth, whilst successfully providing for the county.
Fit for…the Community Through the transport system help to maintain and create safe, successful, strong, cohesive and sustainable communities where people are actively involved in shaping the places where they live.
Fit to...Choose Ensuring that the people of Northamptonshire have the information and the options available to them to be able to choose the best form of transport for each journey that they make.
Fit for…Economic Growth Creating a transport system that supports economic growth, regeneration and a thriving local economy and successfully provides for population and business growth.
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POLICY SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Fit for…the Environment To deliver a transport system that minimises and wherever possible reduces the effect of travel on the built, natural and historic environment.
Fit for…Best Value Being clear about our priorities for investment and focusing on value for money by prioritising what we spend money on and how it can be beneficial for the county as a whole and search for alternative sources of funding.
South East Midlands Transport Strategy (March 2014) The aim of the South-East Midlands Transport Strategy is to review the previous transport strategies for the area and the related identified strategic transport needs and proposed schemes. The review process identifies whether the current transport and movement priorities for the South-East Midlands area, to be addressed through the SEP, are consistent with those previously identified. The strategy outlines the importance of improving east-west links from and within the area including by public transport, by rail and inter-urban bus based linkages. Furthermore, the A45 / A4500 corridor between Daventry and Northampton is highlighted as a route within the SEP that has the potential to improve public transport journey times and accessibility. Table 2-10 summarises the South-East Midlands Transport Strategy objectives. Table 2-10 - SEM Transport Strategy Summary of Objectives
POLICY SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Protect and enhance the built This overarching objective covers the shared goals related to the and natural environment environment, climate change, heritage and green infrastructure.
Provide high quality, safe The second overarching objective covers those goals related to access to services and promoting health and wellbeing, sustainable local travel, access opportunities to local services and educational opportunity and attainment.
Maintain and enhance the This objective is the first of the two objectives related to regions links with the wider economic growth and development and is specifically focused economy upon encouraging growth of the SEMLEP area, promoting wider connectivity and supporting the efficient management and movement of freight.
Build capacity to enable The second economic objective is related more closely to growth and economic supporting the economies of local centres and releasing and development enabling specific development sites.
South East Midlands Local Industrial Strategy (November 2017) Following on from the UK Industrial Strategy published November 2017, the South-East Midlands seeks to be one of three trailblazer areas for local industrial strategies, due to be complete in March 2019.
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Table 2-11 summarises the emerging priorities in the South-East Midlands Local Industrial Strategy.
Table 2-11 - SEM Local Industrial Strategy Summary of Priorities
PRIORITIES SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Ideas • Facilitation and marketing of a ‘Cluster of Clusters’ across the Ox-MK-Cam Arc. • Advanced Logistics Centre of Excellence within SEMLEP area. • SEMLEP area as a test-bed for innovative technologies, including smart energy, waste utilisation and innovative freight technologies.
People • Employer-led skills: build on current successes. • Support development of the country’s first STEM-skills focussed University (MK:U) and an Institute of Digital Technology at Bletchley Park. • Greater influence on local adult skills funding allocation, to allow greater tailoring to local needs.
Infrastructure • Support the development of new distributed energy resources and active network management, to mitigate supply constraints. • Improve digital connectivity. • Support strategic transport links and greater first mile-last mile connectivity. • Become an exemplar for electric vehicle usage and infrastructure.
Business Environment • Comprehensive support for local scale-up businesses, including greater linkages with local universities. • Further funding for employment premises and/or de-risking of new employment premises. • Support with exporting and access to new markets.
Places • Promote SEMLEP as the Connected Core of the Arc, the place to collaborate with space to capitalise on commercialising new technologies. • Pilot ‘future settlement’ ideas, inc: flexible work-live units, modern methods of construction and greener settlements. • Connections into strategic transport links across the Ox-MK- Cam Arc.
2.8.3 LOCAL POLICIES Northampton Town Transport Strategy (January 2013) The objectives of the Northampton Town Transport Strategy (January 2013) are the same as those identified in the Northamptonshire Transportation Plan (March 2012). These objectives are outlined in Table 2-9. West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (December 2014) The Joint Core Strategy (JCS) sets out the long-term vision and objectives for the whole of West Northamptonshire for the planned period up to 2029, including strategic policies for steering and shaping development. It identifies specific locations for strategic new housing and employment and
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changes to transport infrastructure and other supporting community facilities, as well as defining areas where development will be limited. Table 2-12 sets out and summarises the JCS objectives.
Table 2-12 - Summary of West Northamptonshire JCS Objectives
POLICY SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Objective 1 – Climate To minimise demand for resources and mitigate and adapt to climate Change change by:
• Promoting sustainable design and construction in all new development; • Ensuring strategic development allocations are located and designed to be resilient to future climate change and risk of flooding; • Encouraging renewable energy production in appropriate locations; and, • Ensuring new development promotes the use of sustainable travel modes.
Objective 2 – To protect and enhance existing local services and to ensure social, Infrastructure & physical and green infrastructure is adequately provided to meet the Development needs of people and businesses in a timely and sustainable manner in response to regeneration and new development in West Northamptonshire.
Objective 3 - Connections To reduce the need to travel, shorten travel distances and make sustainable travel a priority across West Northamptonshire by maximising the use of alternative travel modes. In doing so, combat congestion in our main towns and town centres, reduce carbon emissions and address social exclusion for those in both rural and urban areas who do not have access to a private car.
Objective 4 – Protecting To ensure new development in urban areas effectively supports and and Building Urban links new and existing communities physically and socially, to achieve Communities social cohesion and address the areas of deprivation identified in parts of Northampton and Daventry.
Objective 5 – Supporting To support the regeneration of Northampton’s town centre by making Northampton Town it the focus of high quality retail, employment, leisure and cultural Centre development at the heart of Northamptonshire and to support the delivery of the Northampton Central Area Action Plan (NCAAP).
Objective 6 – Supporting To support the regeneration of Daventry town centre through planned Daventry Town Centre growth and infrastructure delivery.
Objective 7 – Supporting To support Towcester and Brackley in their rural service centre roles Towcester and Brackley’s to ensure their communities are self-sufficient sustainable places and Town Centres the towns are the focus of services and facilities for surrounding villages.
Objective 8 – Economic To strengthen and diversify West Northamptonshire’s economy by Advantage taking advantage of our internationally well-places location, strategic transport networks and proximity to London and Birmingham.
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POLICY SUMMARY STRATEGIC FIT
Objective 9 – Specialist To support and develop opportunities for specialist employment Business Development clusters and business development focused on a low carbon economy.
Objective 10 – To raise educational achievement and the skills base of our Educational Attainment communities through supporting the development of West Northamptonshire’s learning infrastructure and strengthen the link between local businesses and local schools, Moulton and Northampton Colleges, the University of Northampton and Daventry and Silverstone University Technology Colleges.
Objective 11 – Housing To provide a range of housing in sustainable locations to ensure all residents have access to a home they can afford and that meets their needs. Housing development will be focused at the most sustainable location of Northampton, supported by Daventry and Towcester and Brackley in their roles as rural service centres with limited development in the rural areas to provide for local needs and support local services.
Objective 12 – Protecting To protect and support rural communities to ensure they thrive and and Supporting Rural remain vital. Communities
Objective 13 – Rural To support rural diversification and rural employment opportunities, in Diversification and particular those related to agriculture, horticulture and forestry. Employment
Objective 14 – Green To protect natural species present in West Northamptonshire and Infrastructure enhance the existing strategic green infrastructure network, including biodiversity corridors, by incorporating and designing these into Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs) at Northampton, Daventry, Towcester and Brackley.
Objective 15 – High To achieve high quality design in both rural and urban areas that Quality Design takes account of local character and heritage and provides a safe, healthy and attractive place for residents, visitors and businesses.
Objective 16 - Heritage To conserve, and where possible enhance through carefully managed change, the heritage assets and their settings of West Northamptonshire, and to recognise their role in providing a sense of place and local distinctiveness.
West Northamptonshire Infrastructure Delivery Plan (December 2018) The West Northamptonshire Infrastructure Delivery Plan (IDP) is an evidence base document which supports the delivery of the West Northamptonshire JCS. The JCS adopts a planning strategy which concentrates development primarily in and adjoining the principal urban area of Northampton, with appropriate development of a lesser scale at the sub-regional centre of Daventry Town with development needs of the rural service centres of Towcester and Brackley appropriately provided for. The IDP reflects the urban concentration and settlement hierarchy of the JCS. Table 2-13 summarises the West Northamptonshire IDP key priorities.
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Table 2-13 - Summary of West Northamptonshire IDP priorities
SUMMARY OF KEY PRIORITIES STRATEGIC FIT
“Based on the adopted JCS, the area of West Northamptonshire is to deliver around 42,600 dwellings over the JCS plan period 2011 to 2029. Some of these dwellings have already been delivered with some 33,700 still to be provided (As at 31/03/17). Within the plan period, Northampton will accommodate 16,850 dwellings, Daventry 2,600 dwellings, Brackley 1,730 and Towcester 2,100 through Sustainable Urban Extensions alone to these towns, in addition to the regeneration and redevelopment of urban capacity sites within the existing urban areas.”
“The NWRR is highlighted as a key primary infrastructure project required to support the delivery of the JCS to serve the SUEs of North of Whitehills, Dallington Grange and Northampton West. Broad phasing for the scheme is outlined for works to commence in 2019 and complete by MID 2021.”
“A North-West Relief Road for Northampton will be required within the JCS period to help serve the SUEs identified above. It will link on to the recently constructed New Sandy Lane, which between them will complete an orbital route around the western side of Northampton, giving access to the A45, A43, M1 and to SUEs to the north-west and west of the town.”
Summary of Strategic fit for the NWRR scheme Overall, the high-level assessment of the schemes strategic fit indicates that the relief road is extremely well matched or complimentary to national, regional and local transport policy and strategic objectives. The policies with no alignment or a potential conflict relate to the potential impact of the relief road scheme on the natural environment. The relief road does have environmental constraints such as the visual impact of the new road, additional noise that the road would generate, as well as the impact upon the function of the floodplain and local ecology. Therefore, necessary mitigation has been built into the design of the scheme to minimise these impacts. 2.9 FOUR STRATEGIC THEMES Following on from the OAR which identified four policy drivers used to identify the key threads running through national, regional and local transport policy and strategy, these drivers have been taken forward to for the four strategic themes of the Strategic Case for the NWRR and are aligned with the scheme objectives. Each theme has been introduced with a high-level summary of key national, regional and local policies and their interrelationship with the themes. Appendix A sets out the interrelationship between the key national, regional and local policy documents and the four policy drivers analysed in the Option Assessment Report (OAR). The four themes are set out in Sections 2.9 to 2.12 and include: • Facilitating housing growth; • Enabling national and international connectivity; • Sustaining and supporting economic growth to develop Northampton as the key regional centre; • Promoting sustainable development.
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2.10 THEME 1: FACILITATING HOUSING GROWTH At a national level, the 2019 revision of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) sets out the Governments objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes and seeks to provide policies to help deliver a sufficient supply of homes. The national Transport Investment Strategy (2017) also outlines that transport infrastructure is one of the keys to unlocking development and providing houses, which is a key challenge for the country. At a more local level, the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (JCS) (2014) sets out a remaining housing requirement to deliver 41,760 dwellings between 2011 and 2019; with 16,850 dwellings sought to be delivered through SUEs in the Northampton Related Development Area. As previously outlined in the Strategic Case, the housing growth ambitions for West Northamptonshire, and in particular Northampton, will lead to a significant increase in new dwellings, population and thus, traffic movements. Specifically, the NWRR is proposed to be located within the northern part of the Dallington Grange (Kings Heath SUE) development of 3,000 housing units, employment land, a local centre, 2 primary schools and a secondary school. The NWRR will unlock the Dallington Grange housing development by providing suitable and direct access into the SUE. Access to/from the Dallington Grange site would come from both the A428 and A5199. Without the relief road scheme, traffic entering and exiting the site would be required to use the existing road network such as Mill Lane, which would place additional demand on these existing roads and restrict the full development potential of the Dallington Grange site. Dallington Grange SUE is dependent on the development of the NWRR, as such preventing development traffic fully loading onto the existing network. Wider local connectivity in North West Northampton would be supported by the relief road in line with the additional traffic generated from the development. The scheme will also support the regeneration of Kings Heath and adjoining areas by supporting infrastructure requirements to enhance and support access to these local centres in the development. The scheme will also support connections to Buckton Fields and Northampton West SUE. These three SUEs have limited proposed sustainable interventions in comparison to other areas of the town, with the exception of the Northampton Railway Station Interchange in West Northampton. The NWRR is set out in the West Northamptonshire JCS as ‘essential infrastructure’ that is required to serve these three SUEs Ultimately, the NWRR will provide additional capacity to the highway network in Northampton, specifically in an area with significant proposed growth. This will support SEMLEP core theme ‘Growing Places’. Strategic Priority 5 of the SEMLEP SEP seeks to deliver sufficient new homes (with 130,000 planned to 2025/2026) to meet the needs of the growing South-East Midlands population. Strategic Priority 6 aims to deliver the infrastructure needed to achieve full growth potential for the South-East Midlands. As such, the NWRR contributes to these priorities by providing essential infrastructure to unlock the Dallington Grange SUE and support housing developments in wider Northampton. 2.11 THEME 2: ENABLING NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY The National Infrastructure Delivery Plan (NIDP) (2016-2021) outlines the importance of the Strategic Road Network (SRN), which carries over 4 million vehicles per day; and highlights that
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connectivity to the SRN is vital to the successful functioning of the economy. At a regional level, a key objective of England’s Economic Heartland Planning for Growth (2016) document is to improve the operation and resilience of strategic and local road networks. Additionally, the South-East Midlands Strategic Economic Plan (2017) outlines that improved transport connectivity is a crucial intervention to facilitate growth. The NWRR will improve access to the SRN and MRN to support local and strategic trips, including for freight journeys, to promote economic growth and benefit business areas in the North West of Northampton. The increased connectivity in Northampton is vital for encouraging businesses to invest and locate in the area, which would support further economic growth and provide work, education, health and leisure opportunities for Northamptonshire residents. As set out in Section 2.3, Northamptonshire is well located in a key strategic position between London and Birmingham; with strong links to the SRN and MRN. It also has five international airports within a 1.5-hour drive, highlighting the national and international connectivity of the area. In terms of the SRN, the M1 connects Northampton to London, Leicester, Nottingham and the M45. The A14 connects Northampton to Cambridge, Rugby, the M6 and major freight ports to the east coast such as Felixstowe. Connecting these to the SRN, the A45 provides a vital link between the M1 and A14. The A5 connects Northampton to Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), Milton Keynes and the West Midlands. Building upon DIRFT, Northampton is located at the heart of the national freight network within the ‘golden triangle’, which is the largest concentration of major logistics and distribution operations in Europe. The ‘golden triangle’ continues to grow, with the latest consented SRFI, the Northampton Gateway, illustrating the continuing demand for distribution and freight hubs in Northampton and the East Midlands. Northampton is also central to various highways which are proposed for the MRN. The A43 and A509 connect the A45 and A14; the A5076 and A4500 provide vital links to the south and west of Northampton; and the A508 to the south of Northampton provides links to the M1 and A5. The MRN aims to: • Reduce congestion; • Support economic growth and rebalancing; • Support housing delivery; • Support all road users; and • Support the SRN. These aims align with the objectives of the NWRR for local and strategic trips in and around Northampton and the wider Northamptonshire. The NWRR support SEMLEP’s core themes of ‘Growing Business’ and ‘Growing People’. Strategic Priority 2 seeks to deliver increased levels of private investment and grow jobs by 10% by 2025; and Strategic Priority 3 aims to deliver greater trading activity between companies in South East Midlands and elsewhere. Improving access to the national networks such as the SRN and proposed MRN will help support increased attractiveness to invest in Northampton and enhance trade elsewhere through increased transport infrastructure. Strategic Priority 4 sets out the aim to deliver an integrated and employer-led approach to skills attainment; this would be reinforced by transport infrastructure interventions that support businesses in the area.
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2.12 THEME 3: SUSTAINING AND SUPPORTING ECONOMIC GROWTH TO DEVELOP NORTHAMPTON TOWN CENTRE AS THE KEY REGIONAL CENTRE The Transport Investment Strategy (2017) identifies that at a local level, people need access to employment centres and vital services. The NPPF (2019) also sets out that planning policies and decisions should support the role that town centres play by taking a positive approach to their growth. Both the West Northamptonshire Infrastructure Delivery Plan (2018) and West Northamptonshire JCS (2014) identify Northampton as the largest urban area in the County; and will seek to enhance the towns role as the key regional centre, assisted by key infrastructure projects such as the NWRR. The NWRR will help unlock economic growth potential by improving connectivity around the north and west of Northampton, releasing capacity on existing routes through the town. The additional highway capacity will reduce congestion in Northampton and improve access into the town centre to increase its focus as the core centre for the region. This will support the ambitious economic growth targets for the town, including improved access to the Waterside Enterprise Zone which is pivotal to the town in terms of economic activity, jobs and gaining skills. Supporting these key economic sites will solidify the town centre as the key regional centre for Northamptonshire County. This theme links to SEMLEP core themes ‘Growing Business’, ‘Growing People’ and ‘Growing Places’. The NWRR links to ‘Growing Business’ and ‘Growing People’ due to the improved accessibility for residents to gain jobs and training and supporting economic growth by providing additional highway capacity to the network. Strategic Priority 6 seeks to deliver the infrastructure needed to achieve full growth potential in the South-East Midlands, the NWRR will support growth by facilitating additional capacity on the highway network in line with the additional housing growth through the development of SUEs, for access into and beyond Northampton. 2.13 THEME 4: PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The NPPF sets out that the planning system should contribute to the achievement of sustainable development; which is split into economic, social and environmental threads. The economic objective is to build a strong economy and growth by identifying and coordinating the provision of infrastructure. The social objective is to support vibrant communities by providing a sufficient number of homes and to meet the needs of local communities. The environmental objective includes the aim to minimise pollution and adapting to climate change. The Northamptonshire Transport Plan (2012) and Northampton Town Transport Strategy (2013) seek to make public transport, cycling and walking more attractive to encourage sustainable travel. Both documents also seek to improve connectivity to increase access to employment and reduce deprivation in local communities. 2011 Census data shows that approximately 75% of journeys to work in Northampton are made by car/van as a driver or passenger, as such only 25% of journeys to work are made using sustainable modes. This dominance of journeys to work results in congestion and resultant environmental impacts from emissions. The NWRR will provide additional highway capacity contributing towards tangible transport options in the area by relieving congestion on the network, this would help encourage more sustainable travel on routes where capacity is released such as cycling or walking. Furthermore, a reduction in congestion in Northampton would also support improvements to resident’s quality of life in terms of improved air quality and safety. The growing importance of air
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quality and pollution is demonstrated by Northampton Borough Council Councillors voting to declare a ’climate emergency’ in Northampton in June 2019; in a bid to become carbon neutral by 2030. As set out in the previous themes, the NWRR will support economic growth and job opportunities; improved accessibility in North West Northampton will also seek to reduce barriers to work and unemployment to enable a more socially inclusive community. This links with SEMLEP core theme ‘cross-cutting’, whereby Strategic Priority 7 seeks to promote socially inclusive growth and environmental sustainability. 2.14 FIT WITH SEMLEP STRATEGIC PRIORITIES The strategic objectives of the SEMLEP Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) 2017 form a vital measure of the NWRR objectives and outcomes. As part of developing the strategic fit of the scheme the scheme has been assessed against SEMLEP’s Strategic Priorities. The relevant core themes and priorities along with their interrelationship with the schemes themes and objectives are outlined below, as summarised in Sections 2.9 to 2.12. Growing Business Strategic Priority 2. To deliver increased levels of private sector investment, including Foreign Direct Investment into the area, and grow jobs by 10% by 2025. The additional highway capacity in North West Northampton provided by the NWRR will support improved journey times and reduced congestion on key routes. Improvements to the highway networks performance would increase the attractiveness to invest in the local area which in turn would facilitate economic growth and support the opportunity of job creation in the area. Strategic Priority 3. To deliver greater trading activity between companies in our area and elsewhere, with a special emphasis on emerging global markets, but also working to retain good European links. Suitable transport intervention, such as the NWRR, seeks to improve accessibility and connectivity to the wider national and international network to enhance the attractiveness of Northamptonshire for trading. The provision of an essential east-west link in the north west of Northampton will support the improvement of journey times from the local highway network onto the MRN and SRN. For example, traffic modelling indicates a reduction in journey times at peak hours between New Sandy Lane and Boughton crossing by up to five minutes in the forecast year of 2031 following the delivery of the NWRR. Growing People Strategic Priority 4. To deliver an integrated and employer-led approach to skills attainment to ensure that our population is aware of, and has the attributes and competencies for, a modern, competitive economy. This will comprise all pathways including delivery of 170,000 apprenticeships in the decade up to 2025/26 and opportunities for up-skilling, re-skilling and re-engagement. The scheme will release capacity on existing routes through Northampton town centre, which will support economic growth that may provide scope for further apprenticeship opportunities within companies and educational growth at University of Northampton in the Waterside Enterprise Zone. For example, traffic modelling suggests a reduction in traffic on local roads parallel to the NWRR alignment, such as Harlestone Road west of Church Brampton.
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Growing Places Strategic Priority 5. To deliver sufficient new homes – with 130,000 planned in the decade to 2025/26 – to meet the needs of our growing population, with an emphasis on accelerating the completion of units with planning consent. The NWRR will help unlock the Dallington Grange site of 3,000 dwellings by providing direct access into the site. Due to the intrinsic nature of the NWRR and Dallington Grange, should the NWRR not be delivered, then the Local Plan allocation of the Dallington Grange SUE would not be met meaning the proposed 3,000 dwellings would not be delivered. The scheme will also support further housing growth, such as the Buckton Fields and Northampton West SUE, whereby modelling for the forecast year of 2031 demonstrates that the scheme providing a vital east-west link for trips to and from both SUEs. Strategic Priority 6. To deliver the infrastructure needed to achieve our full growth potential, including East-West Rail and the Expressway, and much-improved Broadband and wireless connections. The NWRR will provide essential infrastructure necessary to support housing and economic growth targets in the West Northamptonshire JCS, which ultimately contributes to growth in the South East Midlands. Traffic modelling demonstrates that the NWRR would support trips in the north west of Northampton, which would be generated from new housing and employment developments in the local area. Cross-Cutting Strategic Priority 7. To ensure that this growth is undertaken in a manner that promotes social inclusion and environmental sustainability. The NWRR will release capacity on existing routes on the highway network to promote sustainable travel such as cycling and walking. Additionally, the scheme will provide improved accessibility in North West Northampton to promote the reduction in deprivation and unemployment through reduced barriers to work. Figure 2-19 illustrates the interrelated nature of the four themes identified in Sections 2.9 to 2.12 and the SEMLEP core themes and strategies as set out in the SEP:
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Figure 2-19 - Interrelationship of SEMLEP core themes and FBC four themes
2.15 THE EVOLUTION OF THE SCHEME: FROM CONCEPT TO OBJECTIVES As part of development of the scheme from concept to objectives, evidence gathered in the OAR was utilised to formulate a vision and seven scheme specific objectives. The evidence collated and used in the OAR includes strategic fit (as set out in previous chapters), traffic modelling and stakeholder engagement (both outlined in the subsequent chapters). The vision and scheme objectives are set out below: The vision for intervention is: To contribute to making Northamptonshire a location of choice to work, live, learn and invest through the competitive ability to provide fast and efficient movement of people and goods. Improving journey time reliability and accessibility in Northampton will support economic and housing growth, by enabling people to get to work and services more efficiently within timescales of greater confidence. This will support businesses to flourish to make Northamptonshire an exemplar for industries. Scheme Specific Objectives: • O1 - To support free flow traffic movements on key local routes in North West Northampton during off peak periods, and minimise delay during peak periods. • O2 - To increase journey time reliability and minimise travel costs on key strategic routes in wider Northamptonshire. • O3 – To unlock housing development at Dallington Grange.
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• O4 - To support the delivery and purchase of planned housing development sites in North West Northampton to support economic growth. • O5 - To improve access to employment sites for residents in North West Northampton. • O6 - To reduce the number and severity of accidents in North West Northampton, particularly in hot spot areas. • O7 - To support the reduction of emissions and better air quality in the vicinity of AQMAs in Northampton. 2.16 TRAFFIC MODELLING The modelling analysis approach utilises the existing Northamptonshire Strategic Transport Model (NSTM) to assess the traffic demand within the area of influence of the scheme. The NSTM uses a base year of 2015; with traffic forecasts based on uncertainty logs provided for residential, employment and network development for the years 2021 and 2031. A design year of 15 years after opening (2021) is to be considered using TEMPro for growth from 2031 to 2036. The business case is centred on the fixed demand Core Scenario forecast, which remains unchanged from the Outline Business Case submission. This demonstrates a positive business case for the delivery of the NWRR. For sensitivity analysis, a variable demand forecast to gauge the impact the scheme has on induced demand and thereby its economic case, has been produced using a WebTAG compliant calibrated DIADEM demand model within the NSTM suite. Additionally, a sensitivity test has been undertaken taking account of the latest plans for Phase 1 roundabouts issued by the Dallington Grange developer. These reduce the capacity of the roundabouts from those assumed in the Do Something. Further detail on the traffic modelling is provided in the Economic Case. The modelling sets out that the additional highway capacity and link between the A428 and A5199 in the form of the NWRR will result in various impacts on the existing highway network. The NWRR will support the improvement in east-west connections in the north west of Northampton; the reduction of congestion on existing routes; the reduction of journey times; the reduction of rat run traffic flows along Harlestone Road and Pitsford Road; and growth proposals in Northamptonshire. 2.17 STAKEHOLDERS 2.17.1 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT The NWRR has strong public and political support, and is a priority project for Northamptonshire County Council. It has been strongly supported in the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy by the Joint Planning Unit and its constituent local authority members. Public consultation for the proposed development of a North-West Relief Road to the north of the town was undertaken when the scheme was initially developed in the late 1980s. At the time, a preferred route was agreed, but the scheme was subsequently dropped. Following this, the option of a North-West Relief Road has been reconsidered and consultation recently took place for the proposal of the Northampton Northern Orbital Route and Northampton North West Relief Road in June to August 2017.
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The aim of the 2017 consultation was to seek views and feedback from the public, statutory and non-statutory consultees on the current proposal, which is a variation of the 1990s route. A total of 755 visitors attended the joint consultation events in person (Excluding those who did not sign in). Based on the response of the questionnaire 64% of respondents out of a total of 878 supported the need for the NWRR. However, based on the written responses following the consultation, the main concerns were: • The impact on Harlestone Firs which is well used by walkers and equestrians, and the potential adverse impact to some equestrian businesses. • The impact on the flood risk caused by building a road within the River Nene flood plain. • The impact on the local road network, for example at the busy junction at the Windhover. • Noise and visual impact on local residents in Kingsthorpe due to the road embankment location and height above ground level. • The potentially significant traffic impacts in and around Kingsthorpe in the period between the completion of the NWRR and the Northern Orbital Route i.e. the roads should be completed together.
This important stakeholder feedback has resulted in the further iterations of the scheme design taking account of all of these perceived concerns and mitigate where possible.
Following on from the events held in 2017, two public information events took place in June 2019, focussed on explaining the rationale of the chosen option and design. The events provided the opportunity for members of the public or other interested groups to view the plans for the NWRR; find out more information about the scheme; and to pose any questions or concerns that they have.
Display boards were provided at the June 2019 events and included the following information: • Project background and context; • General layout explained; • Transport Assessment work undertaken; • The design principles; • Environmental Assessment work undertaken; • The construction phase; and • The next steps and further information.
Prior to the June 2019 events, the following methods were used to advertise the public events: • Leaflets sent to residents, over 7,000 distributed; • A project web page has been set up on the NCC website; and • Letters and emails were sent to Councillors and Parish/Town Councils.
The 2019 public information events were conducted with the intention to raise as much awareness of the NWRR scheme as possible, ahead of the submission of the Planning Application for NWRR Phase 2. Due to the nature of the 2019 public information events, it was made clear to those attending prior to the events taking place, that any formal comments should be made through the planning process. Feedback from the event has been collated and will inform the detailed design.
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In conjunction with the public information events, the Planning Application (19/00045/CCDFUL) for the NCC section (Phase 2) of the NWRR was submitted by Northamptonshire County Council in June 2019.
Details of the 2017 consultations and 2019 public information events are provided in the Statement of Community Involvement in Appendix B. 2.17.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT In July 2011, consultation took place with key stakeholders including the Environment Agency and Network Rail in separate meetings with Northamptonshire County Council. The outputs of these meetings are as follows. Following these meetings, issues regarding the River Nene floodplain and Northampton Loop railway line were addressed and have been taken forward into the design process to ensure mitigation measures are in place. In summary, Network Rail stated that they would not support a level crossing, and would only support an under-option if there were compelling reasons for not passing over. Engagement with the Environment Agency scoped that encroachment into the floodplain is only permitted for ‘essential infrastructure’. NCC confirmed that the road is considered essential infrastructure. The Environment Agency stated that an over bridge structure would be preferable due to flood risk; and stated that mitigation measures are necessary for the scheme. The options taken forward in the design process following stakeholder engagement are identified in further detail in in the ‘Options’ chapter of the Strategic Case. It is clear however from this engagement with the key statutory stakeholder that there are no show stoppers to the delivery of the scheme. In addition to engagement with both Network Rail and the Environment Agency, further modifications have been made to the scheme design seeking to mitigate stakeholder concerns, including: • Sustrans – Options were considered and modifications have been made to the crossing facilities for the National Cycle Network following consultation and a meeting with Sustrans. • Brampton House and equestrian users – Discussions have informed the speed limit strategy and the equestrian crossing facilities in the area. • Speed limit review panel – A meeting with the panel, including the police, has informed the speed limit strategy for the project, particularly the enforceability of the speed limit on the mainline. • Northamptonshire Highways Public Rights of Way team – Meetings with NH Public Rights of Way team and the Ramblers Association have informed the design of the facilities for Non-Motorised Users (NMUs). Specifically, regarding the NH PRoW team and Sustrans stakeholders, the NWRR scheme proposes closures and diversions of footpaths and bridleways. These diversions refer to bridleway HW6 and footpath HW44, which diverts both PRoW using the proposed Dallington Grange ‘new shared cyclepath and separate grassed route for horses’. The proposal for HW44 includes diversion of the footpath underneath the existing flood arches under the rail line and the closure of the existing level crossing used for the PRoW. There has been an objection to the diversion of this PRoW, this relates to the procedure being followed to process the closure, therefore this should not present a risk to the NWRR scheme going ahead. In addition to the above, various meetings and discussions have recently taken place with stakeholders and consultees regarding the relief road. These include:
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• June 2019 – Brian Rice Farms/Fisher German, NBC, public information events, WASPRA. • July 2019 – LGSS legal services, various stakeholders in the risk workshop, NCC property services and Burton Knowles. • August 2019 - NCC development control officers, NBC and NCC Councillors and WASPRA. In conjunction with the Planning Application submitted in June 2019, various statutory consultees have requested additional information or asked specific questions. A register of the statutory consultees and their information requests has been created and is being monitored on a regular basis; and the requests are currently being responded to by the relevant specialists within the team. This is currently an ongoing process. Additionally, weekly discussions have taken place with the land owners in order to progress the land acquisition element of the scheme. These meetings are continuing with the aim to agree the land acquisition and secure options on the land once funding and planning aspects of the scheme are complete. 2.17.3 STAKEHOLDER GROUPS A list of the main stakeholder groups and a summary of their contribution / specific interests to the project are outlined below in Table 2-14 below.
Table 2-14 - Stakeholder Groups Summary of Interests
STAKEHOLDERS SUMMARY OF INTERESTS
Department for Transport Will be interested in how the scheme will deliver additional capacity to the network and (DfT) help improve and support the efficient movement of people and goods in light of new developments in Northampton.
Directly affected Interested in the land take and engineering requirements of the Relief Road and how this landowners will affect them directly.
Emergency Services Interested in how the scheme will impact upon their service provision, accessibility and (Police/Fire/Health) permeability.
Equestrian users Local equestrian users and business, such as Harlestone Firs, will be interested in the scheme will impact on them.
Environment Agency Interested in the environmental legislation relevant to construction, air quality, noise and floodplain issues.
Highways England Interested in the impact of the scheme on the trunk road network, and junctions on the network.
Historic England Interested in limiting adverse impacts of the scheme protecting the historic environment.
Housing developers of Require the NWRR to accommodate the Dallington Grange SUE by providing suitable Dallington Grange SUE access to/from the site and additional highway capacity to support the development.
Housing Developers of Require the NWRR to accommodate the housing growth and support the additional traffic SUEs in Northampton generated in Northampton.
Indirectly affected Interested in the land take and engineering requirements of the Relief Road and how this landowners will affect them indirectly.
Media Groups All issues relating to the Relief Road may be of public interest.
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STAKEHOLDERS SUMMARY OF INTERESTS
Natural England Interested in the natural environment. To ensure that areas with environmental designations are conserved, enhanced and managed.
Network Rail Interested in how the Relief Road will cross the Northampton Loop railway line and the design of the scheme will affect the railway line.
Northamptonshire County NCC will have heavily vested interests in the delivery of the NWRR as it will have a major Council (NCC) contribution towards the delivery of developments within their local plans.
Northamptonshire NH will be interested in infrastructure schemes affecting the highway network in Highways Northamptonshire and will also have specific representatives, such as the Public Rights of Way team that will seek to influence the scheme design.
Residents/public Interested in issues surrounding all aspects of the scheme, such as noise pollution, visual impact, traffic implications, traffic management, construction issues, planning issues, environmental issues and design.
Services providers Water and powerlines may potentially be affected by the routing of the relief road. (Anglian Water, BT Openreach, etc)
SEMLEP Interested in the detailed plans, development of the full business case and submission, funding and planning.
Sustrans Interested in the impact the scheme will have on sustainable travel such as walking and cycling.
Transport groups (bus Interested in issues surrounding transport companies, such as route changes and journey companies, freight times. associations)
WASPRA (Whitehills and Interested in issues surrounding all aspects of the scheme, such as noise pollution, visual Spring Park Residents impact, traffic implications, traffic management, construction issues, planning issues, Association) environmental issues and design.
West Northamptonshire Will want to understand how the NWRR will affect the distribution of traffic on the network Councils (Daventry District and how it will contribute to them delivering developments within their plans. Council, Northampton Borough Council, South Northamptonshire Council) 2.17.4 PERSIMMON/DAVID WILSON HOMES AND ALTHORP Persimmon and David Wilson Homes are the developers for the Dallington Grange SUE site, which is sought to deliver approximately 3,000 new dwellings in the north west of Northampton; the SUE received outline planning permission in November 2018. Althorp are currently the land owners for the site. Phase 1 of the NWRR will be constructed by the developers of Dallington Grange, planning permission for this section of the road has been granted by NBC. This phase of the scheme will provide vital direct access into the SUE site and link with Phase 2 of the NWRR which is to be delivered by NCC. As outlined in the ‘Interdependencies’ chapter of the FBC, design work to enable the Section 106 agreement to be signed is nearing completion. It is anticipated that the Section 106 will be signed
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imminently. Once signed, the developers will have six weeks to take up the option to purchase the land from the owner, Althorp. If they do take up the option, the developers will deliver NWRR Phase 1 as required by the Section 106 agreement. If they do not, the land owner Althorp will deliver the NWRR Phase 1 works, as the obligations under the Section 106 agreement will revert to them. Althorp have confirmed that this would be their intention and they would then sell the development land for delivery of the housing, but with the infrastructure already in place. WSP, NCC and the developers (Persimmon and David Wilson Homes) meet regularly to discuss the scheme designs and provide any relevant updates. Designs of both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are regularly shared and discussed. Both Phase 1 and Phase 2 designers shared the latest designs in August 2019, to ensure that the designs aligned both horizontally and vertically. In addition, the status of discussions with Persimmon/David Wilson Homes has been shared with the ECI contractor. Contact details have been shared and engagement is scheduled to occur to discuss and agree compounds, access routes and any other construction matters. This will inform the contractors programme and price, and enable preparations to commence work in 2020. 2.18 DEVELOPING THE OBJECTIVES: FROM SCOPE TO OPTIONS In line with meeting the needs of the objectives and achieving the strategic outcomes, the OAR established that an intervention should be implemented in the area where the greatest impact will be achieved in North West Northampton. The scheme objectives, outputs and outcomes are outlined in Table 2-15.
Table 2-15 - NWRR Objectives, Outputs and Outcomes
Ref Objectives Desirable Outputs Strategic Outcomes
O1 To support free flow traffic To provide sustainable capacity To utilise the transport network movements on key local routes on the transport network in line to unlock growth and enable in North West Northampton with demand. regeneration in Northampton. during off peak periods, and To reduce the impact of To improve the quality of life of minimise delay during peak congestion on key routes on air residents in Northampton by periods. quality in Northamptonshire. reducing the impact of congestion on air quality.
O2 To increase journey time To enable efficient connectivity To support national connectivity reliability and minimise travel to / from the strategic road including for freight journeys. costs on key strategic routes in network (SRN) in wider Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire.
O3 To unlock housing development To enable the delivery of To provide access and improve at Dallington Grange. Dallington Grange SUE by local connectivity to unlock providing suitable access Dallington Grange for housing. to/from the site.
O4 To support the delivery and To support the purchase of To improve local connectivity to purchase of planned housing planned housing sites by support the delivery of planned development sites in North providing the right transport housing and economic growth West Northampton to support infrastructure for accessibility within Northamptonshire. economic growth. to/from these sites.
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Ref Objectives Desirable Outputs Strategic Outcomes
O5 To improve access to To support a reduction in To realise opportunities to employment sites for residents deprivation and unemployment reduce the imbalance of in North West Northampton. in north, east and north-west economic growth in Northampton. Northampton in a national context.
O6 To reduce the number and To increase safety on key roads To generate a greater quality of severity of accidents in North in Northamptonshire. life for residents in West Northampton, particularly Northamptonshire with greater in hot spot areas. confidence to use active travel modes through increased safety.
O7 To support the reduction of To reduce emissions and Support the Northamptonshire emissions and improve air provide better air quality in the Highways Air Quality Strategy quality in the vicinity of AQMAs vicinity of AQMAs in (2013) “to reduce the number of in Northampton. Northampton. transport-related Air Quality Management Areas in Northamptonshire to zero and maintain that position.” Extensive options generation has previously taken place for interventions in Northampton across a range of modes, regulation and influencing travel behaviour that has been captured in key strategic documents. These interventions include measures across different modes and are set out in Table 2-16:
Table 2-16 - Intervention Options analysed in the OAR
Type of Options Intervention
• Strategic Bus Corridor Development
• West Coast Main Line Modernisation • Existing bus service improvements • Bus priority corridors
Public • Upgrades to local bus and rail interchanges Transport Transport • Demand management measures on identified public transport corridors • Increased frequency of core radial bus services
• Northampton North West Relief Road (formerly Bypass)
Highways Infrastructure Infrastructure
• Improved quality and consistency of information and signage of walking routes
• Pedestrian infrastructure improvements • Improve existing cycle routes Active Travel • Improvements to cycling networks and cycle parking • Securing and enhancing urban and rural walking networks
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Type of Options Intervention
• Improved crossing facilities for cyclists
• Neighbourhood Walking Plans • Promotional materials for new walking infrastructure • Support schools to promote walking • Major employer active travel reward and support schemes Change Behaviour • Personalised travelling planning and voluntary travel plans
• Revised parking standards • Establishment of a Taxi Quality Partnership • Establishment of a Freight Quality Partnership • Re-examination of all 40 mph speed limits within the built-up area • Introduction of additional 20 mph zones Regulations Standards & Standards
• Parking improvements (e.g. Introduction of pay on foot systems) Parking
An initial sift of the long list of the options against the scheme specific objectives has been undertaken to discard those options which do not: • Meet the key objectives identified for the intervention; and • Do not fit with existing local, regional and national strategies, as well as wider government priorities. The following options in Table 2-17 went through to the short list sift.
Table 2-17 - Short list sift options from the OAR
Ref. Name/No. Description No.
1 Demand An effective, reliable inter-urban public transport Network linking management major towns and cities, including the Development of a high quality measures on Northamptonshire Arc Transit network, will be prioritised on the identified public following principal journey to work corridors: transport • A508 Northampton To Milton Keynes corridors • A45 Northampton To Wellingborough • A5 Towcester To Milton Keynes • A45 Daventry To Northampton • A45 Daventry To Rugby • A43 Brackley To Northampton • A43/ A361 Brackley To Cherwell District (Banbury/ Bicester) • A43 Northampton To Kettering
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Ref. Name/No. Description No.
2 Northampton New road link running from A428 to A5199. North West Relief Road
3 Re-examination of All 40mph speed limits within the built-up area be reviewed with a all 40 mph speed view to reducing them to 30mph. limits within the built-up area
4 Introduction of Additional 20mph zones are also recommended for investigation, additional 20 mph particularly near schools, which will improve permeability through zones residential networks for cyclists.
A tailored version of the DfT’s Early Appraisal Sifting Tool (EAST) was utilised to undertake a high- level assessment of the short list of options. Where relevant, any quantified impacts and evidence from previous studies have been included to inform the appraisal process. This process identified the preferred option to be NWRR to support the need for intervention and facilitate future housing and employment growth in Northamptonshire. A summary of the four short-listed options is provided below. Option 1 (demand management measures on identified public transport corridors) would support air quality improvements and journey time reliability for public transport. Stakeholder support, including operator support, for this option is a key uncertainty. This option is likely to have a medium Value for Money (VfM). Option 1 has minor barriers to its practical feasibility in terms of the small amount of necessary land take; however key risks include maintenance of the infrastructure and the resource required to manage and maintain operations. The capital cost for Option 1 is unknown, however this option does not have any committed funding. Option 2 (North West Relief Road) fully addresses the identified problems, with the intervention supporting the development of housing and wider support to the growth of employment sites. The NWRR will also provide greater journey time reliability and reduce traffic flows in conservation areas such as Chapel Brampton and Church Brampton. The intervention is likely to provide a positive air quality due to additional capacity reducing stop/start movements. However, this option is likely to have a negative impact on the local environment as a result of land requirements. The NWRR supports economic growth with a high VfM and the potential for outputs to support job creation and the delivery of 6,600 dwellings across three SUEs. This option would be a medium-term intervention with various barriers such as environmental constraints. This option does have excellent quality of supporting evidence with the intervention first introduced in the late 1980s. Although this option represents the highest cost, funding arrangements to deliver the scheme have been allocated. Option 3 (re-examination of all 40 mph speed limits within the built-up area) would likely have a minor impact on addressing the problems. The focus of this intervention would benefit safety and accessibility for cyclists and pedestrians; and would support the reduction in stop/start movements. Key uncertainties for this option include stakeholder support and the enforcement measure for reducing speed limits. Option 3 is likely to have a medium VfM, but only provides weak economic growth. The capacity of the existing network is capped and therefore has a limited opportunity to
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provide economic growth and may create some safety issues. Option 3 would involve a lengthy study, but would be a short-term intervention in terms of construction on site. This option has minor barriers to its practical feasibility due to the small amount of necessary land take. Similar interventions elsewhere have been in the region of £2 million in terms of area wide sign-only schemes, however this option does not have any committed funding. Option 4 (introduction of additional 20 mph zones) would likely have a minor impact on addressing the problems, but would benefit safety of cyclists and pedestrians as well as the reduction of stop/start movements. Key uncertainties for Option 4 include stakeholder support and the enforcement measure for reducing speed limits. This option is likely to have a medium VfM, with weak economic growth. Option 4 has minor barriers to its practical feasibility because of the small amount of land take required. Similar interventions elsewhere have been in the region of £2 million in terms of area wide sign-only schemes, however this option does not have any committed funding. The only options that truly delivers against objectives is the preferred option taken forward - Option 2 NWRR. 2.19 CONSTRAINTS Various constraints have been identified in relation to the scheme that could potentially affect other various aspects within Northampton as well as the delivery of the scheme. These constraints have been considered and will be continued to be considered in the development of the detailed design, with relevant mitigation measures implemented. The key constraints are detailed below. 2.19.1.1 RIVER NENE FLOODPLAIN The River Nene floodplain is a key constraint for the Relief Road due to a potential influx in water runoff from the development, leading to a reduction in water table capacity of the floodplain. As such, stakeholder engagement with the Environment Agency has highlighted that ‘essential infrastructure’ is suitable in the functional floodplain and should be design to: • Remain operational and safe for users in times of flood; • Result in no net loss of flood plain storage; • Not impede water flows; and • Not displace an increase flood risk elsewhere. In order to mitigate the impact of this constraint, any loss of flood plain should be minimised, and any loss of flood storage must be compensated for by the reduction in the level of nearby ground of same volume to mirror the floodplains existing situation. 2.19.1.2 NORTHAMPTON LOOP RAILWAY LINE The Relief Road will cross the Northampton Loop railway line. Therefore, several options were discussed with Network Rail, these being: • At-grade railway crossing; • Under-bridge of the railway; and • Over-bridge of the railway. Following discussions, comments were made that there will be no option to crossing the railway during the construction of the road and all possible works will be undertaken outside of Network Rail land. Therefore, the site will need to be considered as two separate sites either side of the railway. It
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was agreed by all parties present that an option with a level crossing would not be further considered. Network Rail stated that they would only support an under-bridge option if there were compelling reasons for not passing over. Network Rail also advised than an over-bridge structure would be owned, and maintained, by the Highway Authority. Technical approval would be needed by the Highways Authority and Network Rail would provide comment on the design and only in regard to the bridge’s interface with the railway. To counteract these constraints, the road will pass over the railway line utilising a bridge structure and will also be required to mitigate flood plain issues. 2.19.1.3 CHARACTER OF THE LANDSCAPE The introduction of the NWRR has potential to cause an adverse impact on the character of the landscape. The designation of the area which the NWRR will pass through is designated as having ‘Special Landscape’ within local planning documentation, which means that the proposed scheme will need to reflect the character of the landscape through its design. A Planning Application has now been submitted for the NWRR scheme, of which the following issues have been considered: • It comprises agricultural, forestry, recreation of tourism development; or • It relates to settlements within these areas; or • It relates to the re-use or adaptation of rural buildings; and or • It does not adversely affect the character of the local landscape. 2.19.1.4 FURTHER CONSTRAINTS Additional constraints work is being undertaken to mitigate any constraints and potential negative impacts resulting from the scheme. Further constraints identified for the scheme include: • Additional Environmental Issues relating to Biodiversity, Ecology, Flood Risk, Landscape, Townscape and Heritage etc.; • Golf Courses; on the flood plain, which may be affected by run off as a result of the NWRR; • Gradient / Topography: varying topography must be addressed for the NWRR. May also change with the construction of the relief road which could affect run off and structure of surrounding infrastructure; • Land Ownership: the NWWR may pass through private land which will need to be discussed with local land owners; • Historic assets will need to be considered as, within the proximity of the scheme, is an Area of Acknowledged Archaeological Value (AAAV) and a Scheduled Ancient Monument; • Important sites for Nature Conservation; the scheme may affect the efficiency of conservation at certain sites; • Public Rights of way: may be crossed over by the scheme; • Western Power Distribution lines and cables; will need to be considered so that they are not affected too dramatically by the scheme; • Tree constraints; Trees with Tree Preservation Orders should not be affected or those that contain protected species or special natural habitats; • Service providers: must be consulted with as routes will potentially be affected.
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• Statutory undertaker’s equipment 2.20 RISKS Project risks will be managed and reported to ensure they are kept up to date throughout the life cycle of the project which is set out in the Management Case of this Full Business Case. A detailed scheme risk register and risk management strategy has been produced to identify the current scope of risks associated with the scheme. The risk register identifies the risks associated with the project. Risks and opportunities run through all the stages and areas of the projects. They are categorised into types, these being: Approvals, Construction, Contractual, Environmental, Financial, Political, Project Management, Regulatory / Legal, Stakeholder Managements / Communications and Technical. It is important that risk and opportunity are considered seriously at the outset and throughout the life of a project to protect, and maximise opportunity. The Project Risk Management Tool is being used for managing risks and opportunities. In December 2018, the risks identified on the Project Risk Management Tool were reviewed at a risk / opportunity workshop attended by the design team and associated discipline leads. This workshop was facilitated by the commercial team who transferred the risks to a quantified cost risk assessment (QCRA) which has been used to monetise the risks and opportunities for the scheme cost estimate. The latest risk and opportunity workshop was held in July 2019. The QCRA will now be used as the master risk and opportunity register on the scheme so that risks and opportunities can continue to be captured and managed and the effect on the overall scheme cost estimate can also be managed. Top project risks identified for the scheme to date (as of January 2020) are outlined in Table 2-18. These risks and the full risk register, have been reviewed with mitigation measures identified for each risk to reduce the impact that this will have on the outputs and outcomes of the scheme. Further details of the risk register and risk management strategy are provided in the Management Case.
Table 2-18 – Top Initial Project Risks Risk Cause Mitigation Actions Pre- Post- "There is a risk "This is Mitigation Mitigation that…" because…" Score Score Status of NCC Government 30 8 after 2020 influences Ensure that governance is in place changes, poor and includes for major project performance on delivery. Pushed back to 2021. precious activities. Non-statutory Planning stage Complete pre-planning information 25 16 objections at non-statutory and consultation exercises – planning objections. Complete. threaten Engage with WASPRA – Ongoing planning Co-ordination of planning approval. responses - Ongoing
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Risk Cause Mitigation Actions Pre- Post- "There is a risk "This is Mitigation Mitigation that…" because…" Score Score Traffic impact of Scheme Ensure that the scheme stands up 25 16 the NWRR attracts on its own and with the Northern without the additional traffic Orbital in place. Include Northern Orbital to the local assessment of off-site junctions in causes a area. the traffic modelling and design - medium term Complete. Liaise with WASPRA - negative impact. Ongoing. Ensure that the scheme uses the consistent narrative of a balanced approach. Additional TA Addendum produced. Archaeology on Archaeology Early geophys – Complete 25 12 adjacent site investigation WSI accepted by NCC indicates that work Trenching works – Complete significant undertaken on Addendum for Planning – Complete investigation will an adjacent Agree construction phase mitigation be required. site. - underway High differential Presence of Appropriate ground improvement 25 12 and total alluvium. methods may be adopted (e.g. settlements. excavate and replace, surcharge etc). Foundation design to be carried out according to tolerable settlement limits and appropriate factor of safety. Investigate option for use of conventional fill with lightweight fill. Badgers are Badgers being 25 4 known on site. If present on site. setts are Additional surveys complete and recorded within more done in 2019. the scheme Mitigation included in ES. footprint or will Account for within construction be disturbed by programme. the scheme, Works to avoid main sett on then further Bridleway. surveys and exclusions may be required. As demonstrated in Table 2-18 above, the relevant and necessary mitigation measures reduce all risk scores for the top projects based on a qualitative assessment. The latest version of the scheme risk register is provided in Appendix C which outlines the reduction of the initial risk ratings following the application of the mitigation measures. In addition to the table, some of the key mitigation measures in relation to risks are identified below: • Network Rail Approvals – Risk associated with approval from Network Rail for structural design and access during construction were raised early in the project. Every liaison with Network Rail
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has informed the decision to go over rather than under the railway, informed the form of structure designed and has informed the programme construction methodology by the contractor. • Geotechnical risks – Risks of unknown ground conditions on the floodplain were mitigated by undertaking early preliminary ground investigations to determine alluvium depths and settlement calculations. Further risks identified by the ground investigation informed the decision to bridge over the railway, the structural form and identified possible land slips. A further ground investigation sought additional information in relation to the risk of land slips and has informed the design and earthworks strategy for the scheme. • Scheme exceeds budget – In addition to risks, the risk register identifies opportunities including those to reduce costs to reduce the risk of the scheme exceeding budget. A key opportunity to use material from the developer’s attenuation ponds for the construction of the road embankments was identified. Agreement in principle for this has been established with the developer and landowner and preliminary geotechnical investigation has been competed to inform the technical feasibility of the opportunity. • Unknown archaeology – Desk based investigation identified the possibility of buried archaeology. Geophysical surveys have informed a focussed programme of trenching to ensure that all buried archaeology is investigated to the satisfaction of the local planning authority prior to the works commencing. This will reduce the risk of later delays to construction and additional costs being incurred. 2.20.1 PHASE 1 RISKS The risks shown in Table 2-18 represent the top risks associated with the NWRR scheme in terms of both phase and the road in general. However, it is also important to note that there are risks associated solely with Phase 1, which is the developer phase of the NWRR. The key risks associated with Phase 1 of the NWRR include: • Issues around ownership and the taking up of options by the developer; • The integration of Phase 1 and Phase 2; • The risks associated with the two contractors sharing the same site.
The most recent meetings have been attended by the scheme CDM advisor to ensure that information is being shared and best practice is being followed to ensure the safety of the construction teams and the lowest risk design and construction approaches are being taken. In addition to the risks, opportunities are included in the register where savings can be made by the co- ordination of the works, for example the borrow pits and sharing access routes. 2.21 OPTIONS In order to provide further detail on the NWRR scheme, this chapter outlines the various preferred options for the relief road following the consideration of a number of options throughout the design process. Following on from consultation comments in 2017, designs for the scheme have sought to be sympathetic of issues raised and aim to achieve optimum solutions for the NWRR due for construction in 2020. Three initial options, as well as one sub-option, were developed for the NWRR corridor. Further environmental work was undertaken in order to assess the risks and constraints of the options for the scheme. Additional factors such as land ownership and costing of the various scheme options
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were also taken into consideration in order to take a preferred route forward. The preferred route alignment, illustrated in Figure 2-1 of the FBC, is the easternmost of all options considered; avoids passing through the golf course; and represents the shortest length of all options considered for Phase 2. Phase 1 of this alignment runs from New Sandy Lane/A428 for 2km in an eastbound direction to the east of Grange Farm, this will be constructed by the developer of Dallington Grange. Phase 2 of the scheme bears 90 degrees northbound to Northampton Road/Sandy Lane junction and will be overseen by NCC. As a result of the scheme needing to cross the Northampton Loop railway line, discussions took place with Network Rail prior to the 2017 consultation to explore three options. These being at grade railway crossing, under bridge or over bridge options. The preferred option moving forward is a bridge over the railway line to ensure low risk delivery within budget and programme. This also minimises flood risk and greater cost in comparison to the under-bridge option; with the at grade option for the predicted traffic flows not explored further than the discussion as it would not be functional. The greater visual impacts will be mitigated by minimising embankment heights and incorporating landscape features into the design. Nine alignment sub-options were considered in line with the geography and constraints of the area. Option 4 (50 mph single carriageway) was taken forward as the preferred option, subject to further development and future proofing. Following the development of this option, the road will be designed for 60 mph but with safe departures from standards to reduce the embankment height. Additionally, 40 mph speed limits will be considered at roundabouts along the relief road. This option has evolved through the design process, with amendments made the alignment of the scheme to utilise higher embankment heights and to avoid environmental constraints where possible. Both phases of the NWRR, the developer and NCC sections, are proposed to be single carriageway with the option of future proofing to dual carriageway in the future should traffic demand increase. Traffic modelling indicates that the existing river bridge on the A5199 Northampton Road would not be suitable for predicted future traffic flows. Therefore, a new link has been included in the design from the junction of the NWRR with Northampton Road and Sandy Lane, and the Welford Road/Brampton Lane junction to ensure that traffic is distributed suitably at the north of the scheme. Both the Sandy Lane and Brampton Lane junctions have been designed as 4-arm roundabouts, which would carry additional capacity in comparison to the existing junction layout. Figure 2-20 provides an indicative representation of the new link at the northern aspect of the NWRR, including the downgraded section of the A5199 for Non-Motorised Users (NMUs) such as pedestrians, cyclists and horse riders.
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Figure 2-20 - Illustrative design of the new link at the northern aspect of the NWRR
Downgraded section of A5199 Northampton Road
The NWRR will be designed for 60mph speeds but with safe use of departures from standards to reduce the embankment height. 40mph speed limits will be considered at roundabouts along the relief road. To summarise, the preferred option for the NWRR is identified below: • Route alignment as per Figure 2-1; • A bridge to cross over the railway line; • Single carriageway that is future proofed for duelling in the future; • New link at the north of the scheme to ensure suitable distribution of traffic; and • Designed for 60mph speeds. 2.22 MEASURES OF SUCCESS To ensure that the success of the objectives is measurable, they were developed into SMART objectives, below identifies those scheme objectives: • O1 - To support free flow traffic movements on key local routes in North West Northampton during off peak periods, and minimise delay during peak periods. • O2 - To increase journey time reliability and minimise travel costs on key strategic routes in wider Northamptonshire. • O3 – To unlock housing development at Dallington Grange.
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• O4 - To support the delivery and purchase of planned housing development sites in North West Northampton to support economic growth. • O5 - To improve access to employment sites for residents in North West Northampton. • O6 - To reduce the number and severity of accidents in North West Northampton, particularly in hot spot areas. • O7 - To support the reduction of emissions and better air quality in the vicinity of Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) in Northampton. The SMART objectives are: • Specific – say in precise terms what is sought; • Measurable – the means by which satisfaction, whether or not the objective has been achieved, can be assessed; • Attainable – general agreement that the objective set can be reached; • Relevant – the objective is a sensible indicator or proxy for the change which is sought; and • Timed – the objective will be associated with an agreed future point by which it will have been met. Developing the objectives in such a way provides a definitive way to constitute what would a successful outcome be in terms of measurable output. Additionally, the objectives need to work towards supporting the vision outlined in previous chapters. Figure 2-21 represents the logic chain for the North West Relief Road scheme, which outlines the seven scheme objectives; and sets out how these objectives feed into desired outputs, outcomes, wider impacts and measures.
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Figure 2-21 - NWRR Scheme Logic Chain
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Following the logic chain providing measures for the scheme objectives, a scheme benefits realisation plan has been established to track the expected benefits to be accrued over the lifetime of the scheme, this is detailed further in the Management Case of the FBC. Further detail such as the agreed future point as to when the objective is sought to have been met is also provided in the Management Case. The measures identified in the logic chain align with the desirable outputs for each scheme objective which were initially scoped in the OAR. Due to the dependency of the Dallington Grange SUE on the NWRR, the delivery of the NWRR would ultimately seek to unlock the full development of 3,000 new dwellings on the site. Additionally, the Buckton Fields and Northampton West SUEs will be supported by the relief road, with modelling for the forecast year of 2031 demonstrating the NWRR providing an important east-west link for trips to and from these SUEs. Therefore, the scheme would support all three SUEs in the north west of Northampton, totalling approximately 6,600 new dwellings in the area which would represent a vital contribution to the housing need in both Northampton and the wider Northamptonshire. As per the SEMLEP Assurance Framework 2019, mechanisms will be put in place to ensure that the scheme is monitored and evaluated in line with the latest Department for Transport (DfT) guidance on the evaluation of local major schemes. In addition to the requirements of the DfT guidance, SEMLEP has also developed additional minimum requirements which the logic chain aligns to. These four additional requirements are also strongly linked with the four themes set out earlier in the Strategic Case. The impact of the scheme on promoting sustainable growth in jobs, housing and town centre investment has been identified throughout the Strategic Case, with the relief road providing direct access to the Dallington Grange SUE which will deliver housing and job growth in North West Northampton. The NWRR will also reduce congestion and support the delivery of wider SUEs and housing developments in Northampton, to support ambitious growth targets for both Northampton and the wider Northamptonshire. Reduced congestion on key routes into the town centre of Northampton will also promote Northampton as the key regional centre in Northamptonshire by increasing attractiveness of the town and supporting growth targets for the town centre. The NWRR will also seek to contribute to economic output (GVA) in the local area through improved journey time reliability and increased connectivity from Northampton to the SRN and MRN. The NWRR will provide direct job opportunities during the construction phase of the relief road, as well as construction jobs for the Dallington Grange by allowing it to reach its full development potential. The NWRR will also support employment opportunities at the Dallington Grange SUE site, further employment land sites and in Northampton town centre by alleviating congestion on key routes. The scheme seeks to increase connectivity in north west Northampton and release capacity on existing routes; thus, providing improved travel options to local residents accessing opportunities including training and apprenticeships. Additionally, the NWRR will relieve congestion on key routes into Northampton, supporting the Northampton Waterside Enterprise Zone, which is a pivotal regeneration scheme in terms of jobs and gaining skills for the area. Furthermore, the NWRR will improve access to the SRN and proposed MRN to enhance national connectivity of Northamptonshire through the provision of vital east-west infrastructure in North West Northampton. This enhanced links to the wider national and international economy will support economic growth and improvements to journey time reliability all journeys, including freight.
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2.23 SUMMARY Northampton has been identified as a key growth location within the Northamptonshire region, but to deliver the residential and employment growth needed, delivery of essential infrastructure such as the Northampton North West Relief Road is necessary to support such growth. In terms of Sustainable Urban Extensions (SUEs), 16,850 homes are sought to be delivered in the Northampton Related Development Area through the delivery of eight SUEs by 2029. This housing contribution to Northamptonshire will be vital to deliver the growth required, but will also provide jobs, schools and local centres. The NWRR will support this housing growth by providing additional highway capacity in Northampton and alleviating congestion on key routes in Northampton. Specifically, the NWRR will unlock the Dallington Grange development of 3,000 homes by providing immediate access to the SUE site in the North West of Northampton. The scheme also aims to support the delivery and purchase of planned housing development sites in North West Northampton to support economic growth. The scheme will improve access to employment sites in North West Northampton, and seeks to support economic growth and regeneration of Northampton town centre to cement the town as the key regional centre in Northamptonshire, through reducing congestion and journey times. Furthermore, with this proposed residential and economic growth in Northampton and wider Northamptonshire, traffic flows would further increase, thus adding to congestion. The NWRR will provide additional capacity and connectivity on the local highway network to support free flow traffic movements on key local routes in North West Northampton during off peak periods, and minimise delay during peak periods. The scheme aims to also increase journey time reliability and minimise travel costs on key strategic routes in North West Northampton. Supporting greater free flow movements on the local network, and minimising delay will support a reduction in the number and severity of accidents in North West Northampton, particularly in hot spot areas. The outputs of the scheme also aim to support a reduction in emissions and help to provide better air quality in Northampton. For the Relief Road to not be progressed to delivery would mean exacerbation of the existing issues as well as restrictions for future housing and employment growth and prosperity in Northampton, including the dependent development of Dallington Grange SUE. These opportunities align to the SEMLEP core themes of Growing Business, Growing People and Growing Place.
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3 ECONOMIC CASE
3.1 INTRODUCTION The Economic Case sets out the economic impact of the North-West Relief Road (NWRR) to outline the value for money for the scheme based on the cost benefit analysis (CBA) and the evidence pulled together as part of the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). Further details of the economic assessment of the scheme are provided in the updated Economic Assessment Note in Appendix D. 3.2 DIRECT TRANSPORT USER IMPACTS The NWRR will provide various direct transport user impacts. The key benefit from the scheme is the increase in highway capacity in North West Northampton. The scheme will relieve traffic on existing east-west links by providing a link between the A428 and the A5199 in North West Northampton. Currently, journeys between the A428 and A5199 must use routes towards the town centre or through Church Brampton, whereas the NWRR would provide a more direct link and reduce journey times during peak periods between New Sandy Lane and Boughton Crossing by up to five minutes in 2031. The scheme analysis shows that the largest impacts arising from the NWRR relate to decongestion on existing roads near the scheme and journey time savings. The NWRR will improve journey times on other important roads and delays at junctions; supporting greater confidence in the network and economic growth. The NWRR will also significantly reduce rat run traffic flows along Harlestone Road and Pitsford Road between the A428 and A5199. The additional highway capacity due to the NWRR will relieve congestion and lead to a sizeable change in user costs of travel. This reduced congestion would support reduced carbon emissions, increased attractiveness for investment in Northampton and economic growth. The NWRR will provide direct access to and unlock the Dallington Grange SUE development which proposes to deliver approximately 3,000 new homes, 1,432 jobs and additional facilities such as schools. On a wider scale, the relief road would support further SUE housing developments in the Northampton Related Development Area, totalling approximately 16,850 dwellings. Two key objectives of the scheme seek to unlock housing development at Dallington Grange by providing direct access into the site and additional highway capacity; and to support the delivery of housing sites in North West Northampton through the provision of essential infrastructure to support housing growth in the area. Therefore, the overall scheme is anticipated to provide a wide range of benefits which include providing additional capacity to the highway network to support economic growth; reduce rat run traffic flows; improve journey times on other important roads; and increase safety on key roads in North West Northampton. The assessment of traffic volume on the scheme demonstrates that there is a positive business case for the delivery of the NWRR.
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Traffic modelling shows that the existing river bridge on the A5199 Northampton Road would not be suitable for the predicted traffic flows after opening of the NWRR and the following completion of local developments. A new link has therefore been included from the Junction of the NWRR with Northampton Road and Sandy Lane and the Welford Road / Brampton Lane Junction. This improvement provides a safer and less congested route for traffic and helps improve safety and reduce congestion. Further to providing needed support for the housing growth in the area, the NWRR provides significant benefit to journeys across Northampton, reducing traffic on Mill Lane and other routes within the town. This will not only provide significant economic benefits but also local environmental and social benefits. Other routes through villages to the north of the town such as the route through the Bramptons on Harlestone Lane will also experience significant reductions in traffic with corresponding social and environmental benefits. 3.3 MODELLING APPROACH The business case is centred on the fixed demand Core Scenario forecast, which remains unchanged from the Outline Business Case submission. The modelling carried out shows the largest scheme impacts arising from the NWRR relate to decongestion of existing roads near the scheme and journey time savings. Therefore, in line with WebTAG the model robustly estimated the main impacts of the scheme. The modelling used a locally validated version of the Northamptonshire Strategic Transport Model (NSTM). NSTM contains three model elements: • The highway assignment model (HAM); • The public transport assignment model (PTAM); and • The transport demand model (TDM). With the HAM, the modelling approach focuses on the area near the scheme and proposed developments. Within this area, network and zoning detail has been refined to improve the representation of local traffic interactions with the increase in traffic due to proposed development. The NSTM highway trip matrices has disaggregated to reflect the zoning refinements. Using local traffic data, the revised HAM has been locally recalibrated and validated in line with WebTAG guidance. At the same time the wider area validation of the HAM was updated to ensure that strategic traffic movements and their costs were properly represented. Changes were made to the PTAM model in NSTM to update its calibration for cost skimming purposes. The bespoke TDM model was replaced with a model developed in DIADEM. The trip generation element of the TDM covered demand forecasting. To appraise the NWRR, traffic forecasts were required for opening year and two further forecast years within the 60-year appraisal period. The forecasts were controlled to the growth predicted by version 7.2 of the DfT National Trip End Model (NTEM) allocated locally to reflect predicted changes in land use in line with WebTAG guidance. For sensitivity analysis, a variable demand (VDM) forecast to gauge the impact the scheme has on induced demand, and thereby its economic case, has been produced using a WebTAG compliant calibrated DIADEM demand model within the NSTM suite.
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Additionally, a sensitivity test has been undertaken taking account of the latest plans for Phase 1 roundabouts issued by the Dallington Grange developer. These reduce the capacity of the roundabouts from those assumed in the Do Something. 3.4 APPRAISAL ASSUMPTIONS Appraisal assumptions are based on the latest uncertainty log for committed developments provided by Northamptonshire Council and included in the NSTM model. Development Schemes in Daventry, Northampton and the wider Northampton Related Development Area are included, with a total of 17,049 dwellings by 2031 included in the uncertainty log as committed or highly likely to come forward. Table 3-1 identifies 29 committed development schemes within Northamptonshire, and their corresponding dwelling numbers.
Table 3-1 - Northamptonshire Committed Development Schemes
Ref Committed Development Schemes in Northamptonshire
1 N of Boughton Rd, Moulton (16 Dwellings)
2 Sandy Hill Lane, Moulton (126 Dwellings)
3 Land off Alibone Close (16 Dwellings)
4 Harlestone Road (26 Dwellings)
5 Welland Way (12 Dwellings)
6 Witham Way (4 Dwellings)
7 Bective Road (126 Dwellings)
8 Devon Way (132 Dwellings)
9 Ecton Brook Road (54 Dwellings)
10 Northfield Way (240 Dwellings)
11 High Street, Kingsthorpe (16 Dwellings)
12 Welford Road (58 Dwellings)
13 Northampton North SUE (200 Dwellings)
14 Northampton West SUE (925 Dwellings)
15 Northampton South SUE (1000 Dwellings)
16 Northampton South of Brackmills (1300 Dwellings)
17 Northampton North SUE (1000 Dwellings)
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Ref Committed Development Schemes in Northamptonshire
18 Northampton North of Whitehills (1120 Dwellings)
19 Upton Phase 1 (389 Dwellings)
20 Upton Park (1000 Dwellings)
21 Dallington Grange (3000 Dwellings)
22 Upton Lodge (1400 Dwellings)
23 Norwood Farm (1900 Dwellings)
24 Princess Marina Hospital (550 Dwellings)
25 Northampton North SUE (560 Dwellings)
26 Castle Station (950 Dwellings)
27 Park Campus (800 Dwellings)
28 Moulton, Marsh Spinney (85 Dwellings)
29 Moulton, Salisbury Landscapes (70 Dwellings)
The committed employment developments in Northamptonshire are outlined in Table 3-2.
Table 3-2 - Northamptonshire Committed Employment Development Sites
Ref Committed Employment Development Site
1 Dallington Grange (1,432 Jobs)
2 Castle Station (1,663 Jobs)
3 The Waterside: St Peter's Way (2,389 Jobs)
4 University Nunn Mills (1,806 Jobs)
5 Bridge St/St John/Angel St (2,500 Jobs)
6 Northampton North SUE (1,316 Jobs)
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Table 3-3 and Figure 3-1 illustrate the committed infrastructure schemes for 2021 and 2031.
Table 3-3 - Northamptonshire Committed Road Schemes
Ref Committed road schemes Included in scheme
N1 North-West Relief Road Phase 1 Do Something
N2 North West Relief Road Phase 2 Do Something
N3 Sandy Lane Relief Road Phase 2 Do Minimum and Do Something
N9 Harlestone Road / Mill Lane Junction Do Minimum and Do Something
N16 Moulton Bypass Do Minimum and Do Something
N18 Dallington Grange roundabout Do Something
N26 A43 Phase 2 and 3 Do Minimum and Do Something
N30 Sandy Lane / Berrywood Road / Roman Road double Do Minimum and Do roundabout Something
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Figure 3-1 - Committed Infrastructure Schemes
Further details of the modelling approach are provided in the Appraisal Specification Report (ASR). 3.5 OPTIONS APPRAISED Two core options for the North-West Relief Road were developed, with the difference in the two options relating to the proposed alignment. Option 1 relates to the NWRR east of Grange Farm then aligning northbound adjacent the western border of the golf course, whereas Option 2 relates to the NWRR west of Grange Farm running through the golf course. These options are illustrated in the ASR. Further to the two core options, there are nine sub-options identified to understand and appreciate the engineering constraints. These sub-options relate to design speeds and overbridge or underbridge for the railway line crossing. The nine sub-options are: • Option 1 – 70 mph dual overbridge; • Option 2 – 60mph single overbridge; • Option 3 – 40mph single overbridge; • Option 4 – 50mph single overbridge; • Option 5 – 50mph dual overbridge; • Option 6 - 60mph single underbridge; • Option 7 – 60mph dual underbridge; • Option 8 - 60mph single underbridge; and
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• Option 9 – 60mph dual underbridge. The difference between Options 6 to 7 and 8 to 9 is solely alignment. The Department for Transport’s guidance in WebTAG requires that a Core Scenario is used to test a scheme, this business case is focussed on the fixed demand Core Scenario forecast. For appraisal purposes there needs to be at least two options considered under this Core Scenario. These are derived from the uncertainty log and are reported as ‘Do-Minimum’ (without scheme) and ‘Do- Something’ (with scheme). At this stage, the preferred option to be taken forward for the ‘Do Something’ in line with planning is a single carriageway route with a bridge over the railway designed for 60mph speeds but with safe use of departures from standards to reduce the embankment height. The scheme will include new roundabout junctions at Sandy Lane and Brampton Lane, connected by a new river bridge and causeway link. The capacity of these junctions will balance the wider benefits of higher capacity infrastructure with the local impacts of traffic being drawn to the NWRR, which is exacerbated further without the NNOR being delivered. New 40mph speed limits at the roundabouts will be considered. 3.6 APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLE The following section summarises the outputs of the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). The full AST is included in Appendix E. 3.6.1 ECONOMY 3.6.1.1 DIRECT USER BENEFITS The NWRR will provide various direct transport user impacts. The key benefit from the scheme is the increase in highway capacity in North West Northampton. The scheme will relieve traffic on existing east-west links by providing a link between the A428 and the A5199 in North West Northampton. Currently journeys between the A428 and A5199 must use routes towards the town centre or through Church Brampton, whereas the NWRR would provide a more direct link and reduce journey times at peak times between New Sandy Lane and Boughton Crossing by up to five minutes in 2031. Further information on the direct user benefits is provided in the Economic Assessment Note in Appendix D. 3.6.1.2 RELIABILITY Overall the scheme will provide an improvement in reliability. As stated in the Strategic Case, Figure 2-7 demonstrates the volume capacity ratios at nodes in the network in 2031 should Dallington Grange be delivered without the NWRR. Figure 2-8 illustrates the volume capacity ratios at nodes in the network in 2031 should both Dallington Grange and the NWRR scheme go ahead. The modelling outputs highlight that there is a greater likelihood of congestion on Harlestone Road and Mill Lane should the NWRR not be delivered. The modelling forecasts that, should the NWRR be delivered, additional congestion will occur at the northern end of the relief road. Therefore, a new link including two roundabout junctions has been incorporated into the design of the scheme to assist in distributing traffic more suitably, and a Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA) has been developed by NCC in support of the Planning Application for NWRR Phase 2. Within this TAA, mitigation options have been developed to mitigate
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the forecast impact that delivering the NWRR will likely have on the wider Northampton highway network. 3.6.1.3 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS The overall scheme is anticipated to provide a wide range of benefits which include providing additional capacity to the highway network to support economic growth, such as increased footfall and reduced journey costs for employers; reduce rat run traffic flows; improve journey times on other important roads; and increase safety on key roads in North West Northampton. The scheme will unlock housing growth and support employment development, increasing economic growth in the area. Residential land value uplift has been calculated for the 2850 dependent development dwellings and adjusted for additionality at a regional level assuming 25% deadweight and 84% displacement. Resulting in £9.723 million uplift in land value. 3.6.2 SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS The following section outlines the social and distributional impacts of the scheme, also summarised in the AST (Appendix E). The Social and Distributional Impact Assessment is included in Appendix F. 3.6.2.1 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY It is likely the implementation of the NWRR will slight benefit to physical activity due to the nature of the scheme. The removal of trips from within Northampton will present the opportunity for schemes to promote active travel such as improved walking conditions and cycle infrastructure which will improve physical activity of the population. 3.6.2.2 JOURNEY QUALITY The impact on traveller care will be neutral - beneficial. All elements will be designed to current industry standards therefore this may be an improvement to traveller environment over the existing local roads that are currently being used. The impact on travellers’ views will be neutral as the majority of works will run through countryside. The impact on traveller stress will be neutral as the scheme will reduce congestion and delay on some routes, but in line with the current design some additional congestion will occur at the northern end of the relief road. A new link including two roundabout junctions has been incorporated into the design of the scheme to assist in distributing traffic more suitably to mitigate this. 3.6.2.3 ACCIDENTS The majority of accidents in Northampton appear to occur on the arterial routes into Northampton town centre. The greatest concentration of accidents take place on the A508, A43 and A45; with a number of fatal accidents on key routes to the north of Northampton such as the A508, Boughton Road and Sywell Road. By providing additional capacity to the highway network in North Northampton, the NWRR will support a reduction in accidents by reducing traffic on unsuitable and congested routes. This is likely to positively affect all the associated age groups. For example, young people and children under 16 are likely to benefit within the urban area during morning and evening journeys to school / university. Reduced car use on roads within the centre of Northampton will provide
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opportunities for new schemes with the freedom to better integrate older people and people with disabilities. Additional capacity provided by the scheme in the Fixed Demand scenario, shows that an estimated 559 accidents and 708 casualties will be saved by the scheme. Further information is provided in the COBALT Assessment Report. 3.6.2.4 SECURITY The scheme will pass through previously undeveloped land and will therefore not have any detriment to the existing road side amenities elsewhere on the network. No significant security risk will be introduced by the proposed scheme. The security impact is assumed to be neutral. 3.6.2.5 ACCESS TO SERVICES The appraisal of accessibility focuses on the public transport accessibility aspect of accessing employment, services and social networks. At this stage, it is not proposed that there will be a change in routes served by the public transport system as a result of the scheme, although this may change in the future as Dallington Grange is developed. The accessibility impact is assumed as neutral. 3.6.2.6 AFFORDABILITY The scheme will have an impact on car fuel and non-fuel operating costs only, based on the TUBA assessment undertaken the scheme will have a beneficial effect on affordability. Further details of the monetised benefits of vehicle operating costs by user group are provided in the Economic Efficiency of the Transport System -TEE Table (Appendix I) and Economic Assessment Note (Appendix D). SEVERANCE WebTAG defines community severance as the separation of residents from facilities and services they use within their community caused by substantial changes in transport infrastructure or by changes in traffic flows. Severance will only be an issue where either vehicle flows are significant enough to significantly impede pedestrian movement or where infrastructure presents a physical barrier to movement. The scheme will have some impact on existing public rights of way, however engineering solutions have been developed with due regard for the needs of pedestrians, cyclists and equestrians, alongside any new opportunities in the developing scheme design. This will support practice mitigation measures to provide a neutral or improved situation for users of the local area around the scheme. There is likely to be a neutral severance impact as a result of the scheme. 3.6.2.7 OPTION AND NON-USE VALUES An option value is the willingness-to-pay to preserve the option of using a transport service for trips not yet anticipated or currently undertaken by other modes, over and above the expected value of any such future use. The appraisal of impact on option and non-user values is only likely to be of importance where an intervention will substantially change the availability of transport services within a study area.
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At this stage, it is not understood that the scheme will result in the provision of new public transport services. The option values impact is assumed as neutral.
3.6.3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS The following sections outline the environmental impacts of the scheme, also detailed in the AST (Appendix E) and the Environmental Impact Worksheets provided in Appendix G. The Environmental Impacts have been updated for the Full Business Case to take account of mitigation captured through risk mitigation design workshops and built into the schemes design. The environmental appraisal has been undertaken for Phase 2 only in line with the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) developed for the NWRR Planning Application. 3.6.3.1 NOISE There are four Noise Important Areas (NIAs) in the vicinity, although none is closer than 1.2km to the scheme alignment. There are numerous residential receptors within 600m of the scheme. With respect to construction noise and vibration, after the implementation of appropriate mitigation and with appropriate control measures in place, residual adverse effects would be direct, temporary, short-term and not significant. With respect to operational road traffic noise, significant adverse effects are anticipated in four areas (Grange Farm, along Brampton Lane and Brampton Valley Lane, Buckton Fields East and to the west of Welford Road). No appropriate mitigation has been identified for affected receptors, so residual adverse effects would be direct, permanent, short-term (sometimes long-term) and significant. In Church Brampton and Chapel Brampton residual beneficial effects would be direct, permanent, short-term and significant. Overall, the net present value of change in noise is forecast to be -£1,562,706. 3.6.3.2 AIR QUALITY The Northampton North West Relief Road (Scheme) is located within 2km's of the Harborough Road AQMA along with six additional AQMAs located throughout Northampton. There are seven road links classified under the DEFRA Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) in exceedance of air quality standards within the study area however the background levels are between 10-20ug m-3 within Northampton. There are numerous properties within 200m of the scheme corridor. In the opening year, 21 exceedances of the Air Quality Strategy objective value for NO2 is predicted at sensitive human receptors without Northampton NWRR in place (Do-Minimum 2021). With Northampton NWRR in place (Do-Something 2021), there is predicted to be 4 of these exceedances removed and one new exceedance. No exceedances of the PM10 or PM2.5 objective in opening year 2021 is predicted. In the opening year 2021 property weighted concentrations of NO2 are predicted to experience a deterioration at the greatest number of receptors. A net improvement of property weighted concentrations of PM2.5 is predicted between the Do-Something and Do-Minimum scenarios. Overall the impact of Northampton NWRR is considered to be negligible at the majority of sensitive receptors and the overall effect is assessed as not significant. The following table summarised the quantified monetised impact of air quality as a result of the scheme with positive values indicating a net benefit.
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Table 3-4 – Summary of Quantified Impact of Air Quality
Value of Change Monetised Impact
Present value of change in NO2 emissions -£2,323,892
Present value of change in PM2.5 emissions -£5,880,486
Total value of change in air quality -£7,237,242
3.6.3.3 GREENHOUSE GASES The total greenhouse gas emissions for the three administrative local authorities’ areas in 2016 was 1,683 kt CO2 for all sectors. Emissions of CO2e are predicted to increase as a result of the scheme over Carbon Budget periods 3 and 4. The change in emissions for the opening year with the scheme in place is an increase of 5,403tCO2e compared to without the scheme in place. Overall, the Net Present Value of CO2e emissions is -£3,749,304. 3.6.3.4 LANDSCAPE AND TOWNSCAPE The proposed scheme includes a new offline single carriageway within an agricultural area north- west of Northampton. As such, the nature and magnitude of effect is expected to vary significantly between components. The Proposed Scheme lies within and adjacent to several widely varying landscape types and characters, the most sensitive of these is the river valley floodplain. The proposed scheme lies within an area in which transport infrastructure and urban developments are not already a dominating feature of the landscape. The predicted impact from the proposed scheme on the landscape character effect is considered to be Moderate Adverse. The proposed scheme would impact landscape pattern and tranquillity of rural areas. There are opportunities through environmental design measures, including landscape planting, to minimise the potential impacts upon the landscape character area. The summary assessment score of Moderate Adverse is driven by the proposed offline route adjacent to the identified town, which has the potential to be at considerable variance with the human interaction and cultural associations of the townscape. Due to loss of open space the scheme would result in changes in land use. However, these impacts can be minimised through appropriate design and mitigation. The proposed scheme also offers beneficial impacts, through the alleviation of traffic to Northampton. 3.6.3.5 HERITAGE AND HISTORIC RESOURCE Eight of the ten Listed Buildings within the Study Area were scoped out as it was considered that the Scheme would have no impact on them. However, reappraisal of the evidence led to the Church of St John the Baptist also being scoped out. It is considered that the scheme will have a Minor Adverse impact on the setting the Windmill Inn. The impact for the asset will be a visual intrusion on
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the long-distance views from the assets to the west. The Kingsthorpe Conservation Area will also have long range views of the Scheme. The Dallington causewayed enclosure falls partly within the zone of visual influence of the Scheme which will have a minor adverse impact on its setting. Geophysical survey has identified potential archaeological features that likely date to the Iron Age to Romano-British periods, and it is likely that the Scheme contains further as yet unidentified below ground heritage assets. The scheme will have a Major Adverse impact on any below ground heritage assets within the area of impact. 3.6.3.6 ECOLOGY AND NATURE CONSERVATION There are anticipated to be limited direct/indirect impacts on statutory sites within 10km due to changes in water quality, air quality, noise, vibration levels, lighting levels and visual disturbance. Such impacts can be minimised through the adoption of design measures into the scheme design, including implementation of controlled drainage systems, installation of best practice lighting etc. The Proposed Scheme has the potential to directly impact 2 parcels of priority habitat. As such, they may be removed as part of the Proposed Scheme. Mitigation, including minimising habitat loss, providing habitat enhancements and compensatory habitat may reduce the level of impact. The Proposed Scheme may also indirectly impact habitats, including other priority habitats, through increased disturbance and noise. Adverse impacts can be minimised through integrating appropriate mitigation measures into the scheme design during construction. The impacts identified through this assessment will need to be reviewed at the detailed assessment stage. Based on the information available at the time of writing, it is considered likely that moderate ecological avoidance, mitigation and compensation measures will be required. This may require compensatory habitat creation within the Scheme Footprint. Adverse effects upon species and habitats will be mitigated through a number of measures including; mitigation built into the construction methods of the Scheme (e.g. incorporating best practice guidelines and avoiding construction works within certain seasons), and incorporating specific mitigation into the design of the Scheme (e.g. animal passes, barn owl boxes, compensatory habitat). Where effects cannot be avoided or mitigated for, compensation will be designed into the scheme. Overall, there is expected to be a moderate adverse impact to biodiversity as a result of the scheme. 3.6.3.7 WATER ENVIRONMENT Suitable mitigation is adopted in the Proposed Scheme to minimise potential impacts to water environment receptors to a slight adverse or negligible effect with low significance. There are residual risks to groundwater as full detailed surveys have not yet been completed, however there is likely to be mitigation suitable to minimise potential impacts associated with groundwater supply and quality. Overall, there are expected to be Moderate Adverse impacts to groundwater which require further assessment. Slight adverse or Negligible impacts to surface water features.
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3.6.4 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS The capital costs of the scheme are set out in detail within the Financial Case. The costs presented at OBC have been reviewed and remain valid at time of writing (August 2019) for the purpose of the economic case. The total estimated scheme cost of Phase 1 of the NWRR is approximately £8 million excluding optimism bias. This includes 20% risk allowance and a contingency of £1 million. Note this section is to be funded by the Dallington Grange developer. At Outline Business Case the cost inclusive of optimism bias was estimated at £10 million in 2019 prices. As there remains uncertainty around the design of the Phase 1 scheme the economic investment cost for Phase 1 remains around £10 million. The Phase 2 base cost in 2018 real prices is £32.5 million. This includes professional fees of £4.4 million, £1 million for land claims and fees and £3.7 million risk. In terms of operating costs for Phases 1 and 2, an outline estimated cost for resurfacing in 20 years from opening (2041) is expected to be £150,000 in 2018 prices. A full reconstruction cost at 40 years from opening (2061) is estimated at £1.6 million in 2018 prices. Annual maintenance costs are estimated at around £0.05 million. These costs have been adjusted to market prices, converted to 2010 real prices and discounted to 2010 in line with WebTAG appraisal requirements. The Public Accounts Table, provided in Appendix H, shows the derivation of the broad transport budget over the 60-year appraisal period of £29.1 million. This includes a reduction of £7.1m developer contribution for Phase 1 of the NWRR and operating costs of £2.7million. Since the OBC the calculation of the PVC includes a revised upward adjustment for Phase 2 real outturn prices and a reduction in Phase 2 optimism bias to 4.5% reflecting the advanced stage in the scheme development. The loss of indirect tax revenues due to road users making more efficient journeys because of the NWRR amounts to a cost to Central Government of £7.3 million. The revenue loss excludes dependent development traffic. The level of indirect tax revenue lost falls to £5.2 million in the case of the variable demand sensitivity. The reduction in indirect tax revenue loss with the reduced capacity roundabouts on Phase 1 of the scheme is slight with losses totalling £7.2 million. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT RESULTS Chapter 4 provides examines the key economic assessment results in the Value for Money Statement. As part of the VfM assessment sensitivity tests have been undertaken including: • Adjusted Core Case using the Variable Demand Model (VDM) • Reduced capacity Phase 1 roundabouts Supporting tables for Public Accounts (PA), Economic Efficiency of the Transport System (TEE), and Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) have been updated in August 2019 and are provided in Appendices H, I, and J including sensitivity test versions of each table.
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4 VALUE FOR MONEY STATEMENT
4.1 INTRODUCTION This section provides a value for money (VfM) conclusion by considering all the evidence pulled together as part of the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). It informs the final judgement on the Value for Money category of the scheme as recommended by DfT in their VfM advice1. In summary the statement addresses: • To what extent the proposal represents value for money? • What are the key impacts of the proposal on the public? • Why do these impacts place the proposal in the reported category? • How confident can we be in the value for money reported category? The summary below sets out the do minimum scenario and the options considered (the do something scenario. It then presents the initial and adjusted benefit to cost ratios (BCRs), non- monetised impacts and risks and uncertainties. Sensitivity tests have also been undertaken to the test the robustness of the scheme’s forecasted benefits and the results of these are set out in Section 4.2. 4.2 SUMMARY 4.2.1 OPTIONS CONSIDERED The do-minimum scenario includes committed development and schemes within the area of influence of the NWRR. These are derived from the Core Scenario uncertainty log. Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2 show the large residential and employment development sites which are included in the do-minimum. Note only 150 dwellings of the Dallington Grange residential and employment site are included in the do-minimum as the remainder of the site is dependent on the completion of the NWRR.
1https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/630704/val ue-for-money-framework.pdf
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Figure 4-1 - Large Committed Residential Developments By 2031 (Based on Uncertainty Log – Updated November 2018)
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Figure 4-2 - Proposed Committed Employment Sites By 2031 (Based on Uncertainty Logs – Updated November 2018)
The committed highway schemes included in the do-minimum are: • Sandy Lane Relief Road Phase 2; • Harlestone Road / Mill Lane Road junction; • Moulton Bypass; • A43 Phase 2 and 3; and • Sandy Lane / Berrywood Road / Roman Road double roundabout. The do-something scenario consists of the do minimum but with the addition of the North West Relief Road and the completed Dallington Grange development together defined as: • Single Carriageway North West Relief Road combining Phases 1 and 2 between A428 / New Sandy Lane and A5199 / Sandy Lane; • The remaining 2850 dwellings including affordable housing; • 7.2ha employment land for office/light industry (B1) and general industry (B20; • A mixed use local centre for retail and other services; • 2 primary schools and 1 secondary school; • Redevelopment of an existing farm to provide a hotel, restaurant or other catering establishment; and
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• Open space for wildlife and public recreation.
A sensitivity test has been undertaken taking account for the latest plans for the Phase 1 roundabouts issued by the Dallington Grange developer. These reduce the capacity of the roundabouts from those assumed in the Do-Something. 4.2.2 MODELLING APPROACH The Northamptonshire Strategic Transport Model (NSTM) has been used to provide forecasts of travel demand, journey times and distances for use in the appraisal of the scheme. The model is validated for 2015 and is WebTAG compliant. It produces both fixed and variable demand peak hour and interpeak forecasts for 2021 and 2031 taking into account DfT growth assumptions and changes to the local network and development data described above. The most relevant element of the model for appraisal purposes is the highway assignment component which is built using the SATURN software platform. The business case is centred on the fixed demand Core Scenario forecast, which remains unchanged from the Outline Business Case submission. For sensitivity analysis a variable demand forecast to gauge the impact the scheme has on induced demand and thereby its economic case, has been produced using a WebTAG compliant calibrated DIADEM demand model within the NSTM suite. 4.2.3 INITIAL BENEFIT COST RATIO The Initial Net Present Public Value (NPPV) for the scheme, encompassing the direct transport user benefits is forecast to be £27.9m, with the expected Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of the scheme at 10.6 to 1. The initial NPPV represents a quantified assessment of monetised benefits in terms of a traditional set of transport scheme impacts representing travel time changes, vehicle operating cost changes and indirect tax revenues. It excludes a range of non-monetised impacts. Excluding these benefits does not provide a full assessment of the impact of the scheme. 4.2.4 ADJUSTED BENEFIT COST RATIO The adjusted NPV for the scheme is forecast to be around £17.8m with the expected BCR of the scheme at 7.1 to 1. The scheme therefore falls into the “very high value for money” category. The adjusted BCR incorporates a £119m external cost of dependent development on existing users’ travel time, operating costs and indirect taxation benefits offset by a £9.7m land value uplift. We have taken a conservative estimate of 84% of the anticipated potential uplift from greenfield to residential land values because of the scheme to allow for displacement at a regional level. It is clear from initial and adjusted BCR values that land value uplift is not the main driver of the positive BCR for this scheme and therefore additional sensitivity tests around land value uplift are not necessary. Even with no land value uplift the adjusted BCR would be 6.8:1. Since the Outline Business Case the following benefits have also been monetised: • Accident reductions and severity; • Greenhouse gases; • Noise; and
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• Air quality. As these have been calculated with the dependent development in place they include the impact of development traffic. Thus, they are included as part of the adjusted BCR calculation. 4.2.5 NON-MONETISED IMPACTS In addition to the monetised benefits, the package of scheme measures is forecast to deliver a range of non-monetised impacts. Those criteria for which there is anticipated to be either positive or negative impacts are summarised below, with a full analysis of outcomes for all criteria, presented within the full Economic Case. As noted in the Economic Case, the Environmental Impact appraisal has been updated for the Full Business Case to take account of mitigation captured through risk mitigation design workshops and built into the scheme’s design. As this work continues to progress, the current impacts are likely to improve following completion of the mitigation design work. • Economy. · Reliability impact on business users – Slight - Moderate Beneficial. · Regeneration – Not applicable. The scheme is not expected to substantially impact regeneration areas. · Wider impacts – Moderate Beneficial. • Environmental. · Landscape – Moderate Adverse · Townscape – Moderate Adverse · Historic environment – Large Adverse · Biodiversity – Moderate Adverse · Water environment – Moderate Adverse • Social. · Reliability impact on commuting and other users – Slight / Moderate Beneficial. · Physical activity - Slight Beneficial · Journey quality – Neutral · Accidents - Beneficial · Security – Neutral · Access to services - Neutral · Affordability - Beneficial · Severance – Neutral · Options and non-use values – Neutral 4.2.6 KEY RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES A comprehensive quantified risk assessment (QRA) has been undertaken for Phase 2 of the scheme and is included as part of the Management Case. This suggests a value of £3.7m should be applied in considering financial risk at this stage of scheme development. This is 13% of the Phase 2 scheme costs (excluding optimism bias) in 2018 prices.
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Optimism bias of 4.5% has been considered for the Phase 2 cost for economic assessment purposes. This reflects the guidance in WebTAG Unit A1.2 Scheme Costs for a scheme which is at Full Business Case. It also reflects that the scheme is road based (optimism bias of 3%) and includes a railway overbridge and other structures (optimism bias 6%).
Phase 2 Present Value Costs of construction comprises: · Initial base cost = £28.8million 2018 Q3 prices; · Real cost increase adjustment = +£0.9 million (ROCOS/GDP deflator) · Real cost QRA adjustment = +£3.8 million (£3.7 million plus real cost increase) · Optimism bias @ 4.5% = +£3.1 million · Deflation to 2010 prices deduction = -£4.6 million · 2010 discount deduction = -£9.8 million · Market price adjustment (19%) = +£4.2 million • Phase 2 PVC of construction = £26.4 million
Phase 1 of the scheme is to be provided by the developer of the Dallington Grange Development. The cost of this includes a cost estimate including a 20% risk allowance and £1 million contingency to give an estimated total cost of £7,968,520 in 2019 prices. That said there remains additional uncertainty regarding the level of development the cost have reached therefore an additional 25% optimism bias has been included.
Phase 1 Present Value Costs of construction comprises: · Initial base cost = £5.8 million 2019 Q3 prices; · Real cost increase adjustment = +£0.3 million (ROCOS/GDP deflator) · Real cost QRA adjustment = +£2.3 million (20% risk + £1 million contingency + real cost increase) · Optimism bias @ 25% = +£2.0 million · Deflation to 2010 prices deduction = -£1.5 million · 2010 discount deduction = -£2.8 million · Market price adjustment (19%) = +£1.1 million • Phase 1 PVC of construction = £7.1 million
The combined present value cost of Phases 1 and 2 amounts to £33.5 million in discounted 2010 prices. This includes economic construction costs of £26.4 million and £7.1 million for Phases 2 and 1 respectively and a discounted forecast 60 year maintenance spend of £2.7 million. The scale of the BCR associated with the NWRR shows that the Phase 2 costs alone would need to increase by a further £20 million to reduce the BCR from a “very high value for money” status to a “high value for money status”. An uncertainty to note is the level of land value uplift that may be generated because of the scheme. Our assessment is based on uplift from a change from greenfield to residential only using MHCLG 1st April 2017 values. The residential only assessment of uplift in gross terms is £82.9m. Allowing for local impacts including local additionality this figure falls to £38.5m. By adjusting the uplift for
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regional additionality, the figure falls further to £9.7m. Thus, the adjusted BCR adopts a conservative estimate and there is therefore some potential for an upside adjustment if land use other than residential was taken into consideration along with more local as opposed to regional additionality impacts. 4.2.7 ASSUMPTIONS Assumptions made in line with WebTAG have been documented throughout this Economic Case. The main assumptions made can be summarised as: • Modelling approach; · Fixed demand matrices used (variable demand matrices are a sensitivity); · Impacts during weekends and off-peak time periods, not modelled so economic impact in terms of user benefits in these time periods is assumed to be neutral. · Accident benefits have been assessed using COBALT. • Residential land value uplift; · Land Value Estimates per hectare for Policy Appraisal May 2017 values (Source: MCLG) for agricultural land and residential land values per hectare. · Residential additionality assumes 25% deadweight, 84% displacement and 2.2% substitution. · No multiplier or leakage impacts assumed. 4.2.8 SENSITIVITY TESTS A summary of the sensitivity scenarios are as follows: • Low Case · Low growth traffic forecasts resulting in 6% less traffic in 2021 and 8% less by 2031 compared with the Core Case. • Variable Demand Core Case · Allowing traffic to respond to changes in travel costs as a result of changes in land use and network in both the Do Minimum and Do Something. The form of responses includes changes in trip frequency, distribution and mode split. · In terms of vehicle (pcu) kilometres the impact is slightly positive in 2021 and 2031 in both the Do Minimum and Do Something as shown in the following tables.
Table 4-1 - Do Minimum 2021 PCU km Comparison
2021 Fixed DM Variable (VDM) DM % Change
AM 6713152 6723245 0.2%
IP 4646598.5 4657826 0.2%
PM 6159506.5 6178356 0.3%
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Table 4-2 - Do Something 2021 PCU km Comparison
2021 Fixed DS2 VDM DS2 % Change
AM 6713479 6731797.5 0.3%
IP 4647414.5 4660473.5 0.3%
PM 6161028 6184998 0.4%
Table 4-3 - Do Minimum 2031 PCU km Comparison
2031 Fixed DM VDM DM % Change
AM 7142027.5 7146749 0.1%
IP 4974052.5 4990476.5 0.3%
PM 6566280 6587551.5 0.3%
Table 4-4 - Do Something 2031 PCU km Comparison
2031 Fixed DS2 VDM DS2 % Change
AM 7177068 7182684.5 0.1%
IP 4987987 5004461.5 0.3%
PM 6594119.5 6617077 0.3%
• Reduced capacity roundabouts (RCR) on Phase 1 of the NWRR · As Core Case but with three roundabouts on the Phase 1 section modelled in line with latest designs provided by Dallington Grange developer. · The impact on vehicle kilometres travelled is small as shown in the following tables. Table 4-5 – Do Something 2021 PCU km Comparison
Fixed DS2 RCR %change
AM Peak 6713479 6713517 0.001%
IP average hour 4647414.5 4647420 0.000%
PM Peak 6161028 6161004 0.000%
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Table 4-6 – Do Something 2031 PCU km Comparison
Fixed DS2 RCR %change
AM Peak 7177068 7177095 0.000%
IP average hour 4987987 4988036 0.001%
PM Peak 6594119.5 6594180 0.001%
4.2.9 BENEFIT COST RATIOS Table 4-7 summarises the impacts of these risks and sensitivity tests on the BCR.
Table 4-7 – BCRs (2010 Market Prices Discounted to 2010)
Scenario PVC (£M) PVB(£M) NPV(£M) BCR
Initial Core Case £29.1 £308.2 £279.1 10.6:1
Adjusted Core £29.1 £197.0 £168.0 6.8:1 Case excluding land value uplift
Adjusted Core £29.1 £219.3 £190.3 7.5:1 Case excluding environment costs
Adjusted Core £29.1 £206.8 £177.7 7.1:1 Case
Adjusted Core £49.3 £206.8 £157.5 4.0:1 Case with 70% increase in scheme costs
Adjusted Core £29.1 £116.4 £87.3 4.0:1 Case with 44% reduction in scheme benefits
Low Growth initial £29.1 £541.7 £512.6 18.6:1 BCR
Initial Core Case £29.1 £221.8 £192.7 7.6:1 variable demand sensitivity
Adjusted Core £29.1 £170.8 £141.8 5.9:1 Case variable demand sensitivity excluding environment costs
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Scenario PVC (£M) PVB(£M) NPV(£M) BCR
Initial reduced £29.1 £290.8 £261.7 10.0:1 capacity Phase 1 roundabouts sensitivity
Adjusted reduced £29.1 £192.2 £163.1 6.6:1 capacity Phase 1 roundabouts sensitivity excluding environment costs The initial BCR is based only on the direct transport user benefits and does not fully capture the benefits that will be derived from the improvement in land value and the local economy. Furthermore, it does not include the monetised impacts of accidents, noise, air quality and greenhouse gases along with a range of non-monetised impacts, particularly in relation to journey time reliability. The initial BCR is 11.7:1. The adjusted BCR presented incorporates the benefits derived from the land value uplift to give a fuller appreciation of the likely benefits of the scheme. It also includes the accident, noise, air quality and greenhouse gases monetised impacts which have been calculated inclusive of the external costs of traffic arising from Dallington Grange development. Risk and sensitivity tests have been undertaken on this core adjusted BCR to demonstrate the extent to which benefits and costs need to change to reduce the value for money category from “very high” to “high” status and the impact of lower assumptions to growth. The initial Low Case produces a significantly higher BCR (18.6:1) than the initial Core Case. The reduction in traffic due to lower growth by 2031 means a less congested do-minimum road network. As a result, the NWRR provides wider network benefits as access to and from it is less affected by upstream and downstream congestion. The effect of applying variable demand modelling has been assessed on both the initial BCR and the adjusted BCR excluding environmental costs. In both cases there is a reduction in NPV and BCR. With the adjusted BCR dropping from 7.5:1 to 5.9:1. It is notable that the outputs of the variable demand model sensitivity test provide lower transport user benefits than the Core Case albeit the traffic model outputs do not show a significant variation in traffic volumes. This is because the variable demand model has altered the composition of traffic on the network by replacing trips affected by higher transport costs with trips which can take advantage of lower transport costs such as longer distance journeys. This effect happens in both the Do Minimum, where transport costs change due to the combined effect of traffic growth and changes in the network, and the Do Something where the network is additionally altered by the presence of the NWRR. The net effects of these changes is an increase in congestion costs in the peak periods in forecast years resulting in overall reductions in traffic and therefore user costs in both the Do Minimum and Do Something. However, the traffic reduction is less in the Do Something due to the additional capacity provided by the NWRR. Because of the smaller reduction in Do Something transport costs due to variable demand modelling there is a reduction in user benefits.
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Reducing the capacity of the roundabouts on the Phase 1 section of the NWRR has a much less noticeable impact on the BCR with a reduction in the adjusted BCR (excluding environment costs) from 7.5:1 to 6.6:1. When considering the Core case adjusted BCR of 7.1:1, the results of the sensitivity analysis and including the anticipated non-monetised benefits, we consider this scheme to represent a Very High Value for Money investment.
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5 FINANCIAL CASE
5.1 INTRODUCTION This section of the report presents the Financial Case for the NWRR. It concentrates on the affordability of the scheme, including the funding arrangements and financial risk. The Financial Case is based upon long-standing and significant levels of scheme optioneering, development and refinement of scheme costing. This has led to the identification and detailed costing of a preferred scheme route to support the delivery of local developments, especially Dallington Grange. The Financial Case builds upon the increased detail and understanding of the scheme costs since the development of the Outline Business Case. This section represents the most up to date costs as of January 2020. 5.2 PHASE 1 Phase 1 of the NWRR will be delivered by the developer for Dallington Grange, as outlined in the Management Case. Phase 1 costs were requested from the developer but have not been provided at this stage, as they are currently commercially sensitive, as the developer is at a critical stage in finalising the Section 106 agreement and the acquisition arrangements for the land. As such, KierWSP have undertaken a strategic cost estimate exercise to validate the previous Phase 1 cost estimations provided in the Outline Business Case. The cost of Phase 1 of the NWRR is approximately £8 million, based on the following as summarised in Table 5-1. Over £2 million is include in the Phase 1 estimated construction costs for risk (20%) and contingency but no additional optimism bias is included in this breakdown.
Table 5-1 - Approximate Phase 1 Scheme Cost Cost
Main Carriageway £941,700
Kerbs and footpath £230,480
Roundabouts (x3) £1,400,000
Earthworks £475,520
Drainage £77,400
Swales (x4) £300,000
Balancing Pond £300,000
Prelims £2,100,000
Risk (20%) £1,161,420
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Contingency £1,000,000
Total Scheme Cost (Approximate) £7,968,520
5.3 PHASE 2 The following sections provide details of the scheme costs for the Phase 2 section of the scheme. The SEMLEP funding will support the development of this section of the NWRR, with Phase 1 funded by the developer as outlined above. The Phase 2 costs are estimated in greater detail following a full bill of quantities for the preliminary design of this section of the scheme, including a full Quantified Risk Register and risk cost simulation as appended. 5.3.1 BASE COSTS Throughout the scheme development, a scheme cost estimate and forecasting procedure has been followed. This was used to budget the scheme and inform decisions relating to the design. During the concept design phase, cost estimates were produced for options for the route to pass either over and under the railway and options for single carriageway and dual carriageway. Table 5-2 outlines the high cost estimates for the single carriageway overbridge as the preferred option taken forward, as of January 2020, which details: • Professional Fees, in detail for the current financial year and estimated for future years • Land costs including acquisitions, agent’s fees and Part 1 claims • Survey costs including ground investigations and archaeological fieldwork • Utilities diversion costs • Risk allowances, initially as a percentage but later from the Quantified Cost Risk Assessment • Allowances for inflation for costs in future years. As part of the construction costs, an allowance of 5% has been incorporated for “Unscheduled Items”. At this stage, this allowance in the cost estimate is for all additional costs that are considered necessary to complete the works. The risk allowance in the cost breakdown, is based on the QRA, including a range of costs (best, worst and most likely) and likelihoods of the risk occurring. The Project Team will be challenged during this period to ensure the best possible value for the scheme and realist any specific opportunities to reduce the scheme risk and costs, whilst maximising the value of the scheme.
Table 5-2 - Scheme Base Cost Profile as of January 2020
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Total (£)
Professional Fees 1,198,668 2,054,900 2,494,348 1,149,273 6,897,190
Advanced Works - - 200,000 - 200,000
Land, Claims and 35,000 85,000 1,400,000 250,000 1,770,000 Fees
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2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Total (£)
Construction - - 6,827,593 13,837,472 20,665,065
Risk - - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000
Total 1,233,668 2,139,900 11,921,941 17,236,745 32,532,255
The level of detail within the construction cost estimates continues to be refined as the design progresses. The total known value engineering initiatives are likely to reduce the scheme costs significantly. The latest cost estimate is based on the following methodology. This is likely to be the higher scheme cost estimate, with known value engineering initiatives re likely to reduce the scheme costs significantly in the following stages of scheme design. 5.3.2 QUANTIFICATION The measurement and quantification is based upon the Method of Measurement for Highway Works. 5.3.3 COST DATA The costs, rates and allowances included in this estimate are derived using several methods. Some are based upon composite rates, and others have been calculated from “first principles” resource- based costing. The costs for labour, plant, material, allowances and composite rates used in the estimate come from sources including internal cost database, recent similar projects, supplier cost information and published cost data. 5.3.4 BASE DATA The base date of the estimate is the fourth quarter of 2018. 5.3.5 DIRECT CONSTRUCTION WORKS Direct work items have been quantified from the drawings by detailed quantity take-off using cost estimating software where possible. Where detailed design information is not shown on the scheme drawings, typical / anticipated items have been derived based on an indicative highway cross- section. 5.3.6 INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION WORKS 5.3.6.1 CONTRACTOR PRELIMINARIES Contractor preliminaries are included and are based on the scope of works: • Project Overheads – 20% of measured direct works; • Method Related – 10% of measured direct works; • Insurances – 2.5% of measured direct works. These have been benchmarked against similar projects. 5.3.6.2 CONTRACTOR OVERHEADS AND PROFITS Contractor overheads and profit are included and are based on the scope of works.
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• Contractor Fee – 10% of measured direct construction works. This has been benchmarked against similar projects. 5.3.7 CONTINGENCIES & RISKS An allowance of £3,000,000 has been identified as an opportunity for cost reduction during the preliminary phase which has been applied to cover contingencies and risk across all elements of the project delivery. The Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) was developed to consider, manage and mitigate risks associated with the delivery of the project, including financial risks. The business case management section outlines the robust approach to mitigation of delivery risks, delivery programming and monitoring to ensure the spending of funds before the end of the project programme. The QRA is included in the appendices. 5.3.8 BUDGETING AND FUNDING COVER The NWRR is a pipeline scheme that is expected to be delivered by Northampton County Council as part of the South-East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP) Growth Deal originally agreed between SEMLEP and Government in 2014. SEMLEP have allocated £7,930,000 worth of funding to the scheme. The OBC was submitted to SEMLEP in March 2019 and subsequently approved, this FBC is the final phase of the business case process. As explained in Section 7.3.3, local government reorganisation is taking place in Northamptonshire, with the eight existing local authorities being replaced by two new unitary authorities from 1st April 2021. Pending the formation of the shadow authorities, major decisions that will impact on the new unitary councils are being discussed with the leaders of the existing local authorities. As the majority of the costs of financing the NWRR will fall to the new West Northamptonshire Council, the leaders of the County Council, Daventry District Council, Northampton Borough Council and South Northamptonshire Council agreed at a meeting on 16th January 2019 that the financing of the NWRR should be included in NCC’s Capital Strategy which forms part of NCC’s budget for 2020/21, and form an obligation on the new unitary authority. NCC’s Full Council will be responsible for agreeing the Capital Strategy at its budget-setting meeting on 20th February 2020. A further report will then be presented to the meeting of the Council’s Cabinet on 10th March 2020 to gain approval for progressing the scheme. This will clearly be dependent on receiving certainty from SEMLEP that the funding application has been approved. This decision by NCC will become an obligation on the new West Northamptonshire Council, and there is confidence that this level of capital funding will be affordable to the new authority. Through the Capital Strategy, an additional £24,602,255 will be contributed to the scheme by Northamptonshire County Council (NCC)/West Northamptonshire Council (WNC) to deliver the aims of the project. The timing of the funding is expected to be distributed proportionately over the four years up to 2023, however this will be reviewed throughout the programme. Table 5-3 breaks down the funding profile by provider.
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Table 5-3 - Spending Profile and Funding Sources
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Total (£)
NCC 1,233,668 2,139,900 3,991,941 7,365,510
WNC 17,236,745 17,236,745
SEMLEP 7,930,000 7,930,000
Total 1,233,668 2,139,900 11,921,941 17,236,745 32,532,255 5.3.9 WHOLE LIFE COSTS Future maintenance works associated with the scheme will be added to the maintenance inventory and funded from NCC’s maintenance budget; however, at this stage there is no further detail in addition to what has been provided at Outline Business Case to change the assumptions provided. It is anticipated that the provision of new or upgraded assets could reduce some future maintenance liabilities on NCC. In terms of renewal costs, an outline estimated cost to resurface the whole of the road 20 year from opening is expected to be in approximately £150,000, and a full reconstruction of the road 40 years from opening approximately £1.6 million. Table 5-4 outlines opportunities for cost reductions during the preliminary design phase. At this stage, these opportunities remain as provided in the Outline Business Case, however following the finalisation of the procurement strategy (further information provided in the Commercial Case), the preferred contractor has been asked to produce a baseline scheme cost on the latest design which will form the baseline against which the value engineering / detailed design stage will be compared. This scheme cost will provide further opportunity to highlight opportunities for cost reductions. In addition, the risk register includes potential opportunities where savings can be made by the co- ordination of Phase 1 and 2 works, for example borrow pits and sharing access routes.
Table 5-4 - Opportunities for Cost Reductions During Preliminary Design Phase
Opportunity Cost (£)
Additional value engineering from reducing road footprint (designed and awaiting costing) 1,400,000
Maximise local Borrow Pit vs import 500,000
Minimise Land Compensation Claims through designed mitigation and close communication 50,000
Consider programme options to reduce aluvium settlement engineering costs 500,000
Lower alignment through bridge deck detailed design and following detailed survey 250,000
Remove south roundabout from NCC works. Pavement and earthworks above and lighting here. 200,000
Removal of all dual so take out double sided RRS 65,000
Focus on risk mitigation to reduce risk allowances (target 50% and focus on Geotech Risks) 3,000,000
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5.3.10 FINANCIAL RISKS The project is conditional on the allocation of local authority monies. Funding from NCC/WNC has been included in the Capital Strategy to be agreed in February 2020. A risk management strategy is presented within the Management Case, which was recently updated in July 2019 after a risk and opportunity workshop was held to capture further strategic items. In addition, to this the quantified risk register is also provided in the appendices.
5.3.11 ACCOUNTING IMPLICATIONS The following implications on public accounts are expected: • Developed SEMLEP funding of £7,930,000 of the scheme costs is required with expenditure starting in the 2020/21 financial year; • Maintenance costs will be added to the maintenance inventory and funded from NCC’s maintenance budgets; and • There are no state aid issues to address.
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6 COMMERCIAL CASE
6.1 INTRODUCTION The Commercial Case for the NWRR shows that the proposed scheme can be successfully procured, implemented and operated to ensure that the best deal from the market is achieved by adopting the right commercial approach. This chapter updates the latest understanding of the proposed commercial requirements since the development of the OBC including: • Output Based Specification; • Procurement; • Payment Mechanisms; • Pricing Framework and Charging Mechanisms; • Potential for Risk Transfer; • Contract Length; and • Contract Management. 6.2 PHASE 1 The Phase 1 works will be procured by the developers Persimmon/David Wilson Homes. The draft Section 106 agreement for their development requires that Phase 1 should be delivered by September 2021 or such later date as agreed with the County Council. This is to ensure that both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are ready to be opened to traffic and can serve the proposed Dallington Grange SUE. This requirement has been accepted by the developers through latest discussions. As included in the Risk Register, a current risk for the scheme is to ensure appropriate highway adoption procedures are aligned to this programme, so that adoption does not cause any delay to the scheme. Mitigation measures are included as part of the action on this risk to adopt at the earliest opportunity. The Project Management Team regularly meets with Persimmon and David Wilson Homes and their designers. This is to ensure that the two phases of the scheme align and that all actions required to deliver the scheme are well co-ordinated. The detailed design for the Phase 1 road has been provided by the developer’s designer to the Phase 2 designers, who will ensure that the two tie in together. 6.3 PHASE 2 6.3.1 OUTPUT BASED SPECIFICATION The outcomes of the procurement strategy must include certainty that the scheme can be delivered within the available funding constraints and that further preparation costs are minimised whilst ensuring the appropriate quality is maintained. Contractors will input to the construction programme, risk management and mitigation measures at the earliest available opportunity to ensure that the management of the scheme is achievable and risk is minimised. The outcomes which the procurement strategy must deliver are to:
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• Achieve cost certainty, or certainty that the scheme can be delivered within the available funding constraint; • Minimise further preparation costs with respect to scheme design by ensuring best value, and appropriate quality; • Utilise contractor experience and input to the construction programme to ensure the implementation programme is robust and achievable; and • Obtain contactor input to risk management and appraisals, including mitigation measures, to capitalise at an early stage on opportunities to reduce constructions risk. The specification for the scheme is broadly as follows: • New single carriageway highway route between A428 and A5199, with the option of future proofing to dual carriageway in the future; • Phase 1 to be constructed by the developers of Dallington Grange SUE and Phase 2 managed by NCC; • NWRR Phase 2 to include two junctions designed as roundabouts to distribute traffic suitably at the northern end of the scheme; • Offsite mitigation measures on the wider highway network; • Degradation of a section of the A5119 to be used solely for NMUs; and • Closures and diversions of PRoW, with proposals for a ‘new shared cycle path and separate grassed route for horses’ along Phase 1 and a shared footway/cycleway along Phase 2. 6.3.2 PROCUREMENT The KierWSP Construction team considered the strategy and recommended that the procurement followed Midlands Highway Alliance (MHA) through a Mini-Competition. Procurement through MHA is NEC 4, involving discussions with all four framework contractors. Various forms on contract and procurement were considered, these included NEC3, NEC4 and JCT and the use of either the OJEU process or existing framework and whether it should be a single or two stage award. The procurement strategy recommendation for the NWRR scheme that a two-stage approach would be most suitable strategy, particularly when taking into account the added complexities of NCC converting to two unitary authorities during the project lifecycle of this scheme. The most appropriate procurement route to deliver this two-stage approach would be to utilise the MHA Framework (MSF3), of which NCC is currently a member. This was retendered in 2017 under the OJEU process. The form of contract would be NEC4 Engineering and Construction Option C Target cost. The advantages of choosing this strategy are: • The timescales are quicker utilising the MHA Framework rather than using the full OJEU competitive tender routes, either open or restricted; • NCC procurement costs would be lower as there would be less administration resources required than if the full OJEU process was followed; • The MHA Framework provides a fully auditable procurement process; • The MHA uses the NEC4 Form of Contract which has incorporated user feedback; • NEC4 includes clause X22 which makes it a two-stage contract; • NEC4 promotes and demonstrates recognition of value engineering;
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• NEC4 requires the contractor to provide budget estimates and revisions as value engineering options are progressed, all ahead of production of Target Cost; and • The quality would be bespoke to NCC and the project. Approval to recommendation was given at Project Board level in conjunction with LGSS, the procurement arm of NCC. The price will be based on the scope of work required for the ETI period, preliminary costs and some major quantities from the scheme. The contract is at the stage of the announcement of the preferred contractor who will produce a baseline scheme cost on the latest design which will form the baseline against which the value engineering / detailed design stage will be compared. 6.3.3 PROCUREMENT STRATEGY The procurement strategy is through the MHA contract, based on the following. 6.3.3.1 STRATEGIC AIMS OF THE MHA The aims of the MHA (and its member organisations’ motivation) is to continue to achieve high quality highways, public realm and infrastructure schemes as improved value for member organisations by combining and sharing resources. This will likely be achieved using agreed best practice, procurement and project management principles, including: • Long-term framework agreements, providing responsive procurement options; • Open book accounting through the supply chain; • Target pricing; • Incentivisation; • Performance measurement, benchmarking and continuous improvement; • Risk sharing and management; and • Early contractor involvement including key members of the supply chain. 6.3.3.2 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE OPERATION OF MFS3 Key principles of the framework are: • All parties shall act in a split of openness and trust; • All parties will act to secure best value for money and continuous improvement; • Collaboration between all parties; • Objectives are shared with long-term commitment from all parties by establishing an effective joint management and decision-making structure; • Joint working and transparency between partners and their suppliers; • Trading opportunities are developed and funding stream opportunities are maximised; • Investment in mutual staff training and development programmes; • Achievement against performance indicators; • Innovate and implement change quickly and effectively; and • All parties shall so far as possible, avoid conflicts or disagreements and, should they arise, will resolve them promptly together. 6.3.3.3 MANAGING RELATIONSHIPS IN MSF3 Following the success of the Medium Schemes Framework 1 and 2 (MSF1 & MSF2), the MHA recognises that a culture of collaborative relationship management at both an operational and strategic level offers significant benefits for all parties, particularly in a long contractual relationship.
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It will, therefore, strive to develop collaborative relationships with its partner contractors under MSF3 which are: • Friendly but business-like; • Proactive rather than reactive; • Interdependent; • Flexible, where all parties are prepared to change; • Respectful of differences; • Fair, open and honest; • Risk is appropriately proportioned; • Governed by relationship management plans to ISO44001 as appropriate; and • Disputes are resolved quickly and fairly. 6.3.4 PAYMENT MECHANISM Construction payment mechanism will be in accordance with the NEC 4 contract which has the following options: • Option A: Prices contract with activity schedule prepared by the contractor; • Options B – Priced contract with Bill of Quantities prepared by the client; • Option C and D: Target cost contracts with activity schedule or Bill of Quantities; • Option C and D: Target cost contracts with activity schedule or Bill of Quantities; • Option E: Cost reimbursable contract; • Option F: Management Contract. 6.3.5 PRICING FRAMEWORK AND CHARGING MECHANISMS The pricing framework will be option C or D as above. This is either a priced activity schedule or a priced bill of quantities. Payment is made to the contractor based on their application for the price of works done to date, usually on a monthly basis. 6.3.6 RISK ALLOCATION AND TRANSFER Thorough risk assessment process and mitigation measures have been established and undertaken throughout the development of the scheme to date, including a number of risk workshops with the design team and NCC. Many of the design risks will continue to be mitigated and resolved through rigorous design and regular review processes. Following the design stage, the primary risks going forward will be in construction. There is potential for transferring these risks through the construction procurement process by the inclusion of standard contractual clauses overlaying damages. NCC’s Project Management Team will be responsible for wider risks, including managing planning consent, road space, programme conflicts, demands from businesses and residents. 6.3.7 CONTRACT LENGTHS The contract is likely to be a two-stage contract: Stage 1 for the contractor to provide input into the detailed design stage; and Stage 2 for the construction following completion of design and agreement of a target price.
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6.3.8 CONTRACT MANAGEMENT NCC will appoint a Project Manager to the NEC4 contract and a Site Supervisor. In addition, there will be quantity surveyors to assess payment applications and make assessment of any change or compensate events. The site supervisor will have a team of clerk of works for the various specific elements of the scheme including structures, geotechnical, civil engineering, environmental management and any other specific disciplines required through the works. 6.3.9 PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME The following table provides the breakdown of the procurement programme, including activities completed to date.
Table 6-1 – Procurement Programme
Activity Indicative Indicative Duration Complete Duration (days - 7-day week) (weeks)
MHA expression of interest 1 3.00
Proposed Works information for ECI and - - Delivery
Supplier Briefing 1 2.00
Mini competition Open 0 0.00
Mini competition Return 5 35.00
Evaluation 2 14.00
Moderation commences 0.5 2.50
Feedback and notice of preferred bidder - -
Contractor meeting to discuss our - - requirements for D&B delivery
Preferred contractor provides a quotation 6 42.00 for the works require by the client as agreed at the meeting
Client accepts or rejects the quotation 1 7.00
Assuming the client accepts the quotation, 0.5 3.50 the Client will seek to gain approval of the Framework Board to award a Work Order which will utilise Clause X22
Quotation update 6 42.00
Contractors design completed 6 42.00
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Activity Indicative Indicative Duration Complete Duration (days - 7-day week) (weeks)
Contractors design accepted to allow - - target cost to be produced
Christmas shutdown 2.2 15.40
Target costing by contractor 8 56.00
Vetting & agreement of target cost 5 35.00
NCC order to proceed 2 14.00
Lead in period 4 28.00
Contractor on site - -
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7 MANAGEMENT CASE
7.1 INTRODUCTION The Management Case presents the proposed delivery plan for the scheme to ensure its successful outcome. This chapter provides assurance that a robust delivery process is in place including details of the proposed programme, resources, impacts, problems, stakeholder and public consultation, to ensure that the scheme is ultimately on time and to budget. 7.2 PHASE 1 7.2.1 DELIVERY The Phase 1 works will be managed by the developers Persimmon/David Wilson Homes. As stated in the Commercial Case, Northamptonshire Highways have set out the need for the NWRR to be delivered in 2021. This is to ensure that both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are ready to be opened to traffic and can serve the proposed Dallington Grange SUE. As stated in the Commercial Case, the Project Management Team regularly meets with Persimmon and David Wilson Homes and their designers. This is to ensure that the two phases of the scheme align and that all actions required to deliver the scheme are well co-ordinated. The developers are at a critical stage in finalising the Section 106 agreement and the acquisition arrangements for the land, therefore at this time certain information in regard to the Phase 1 costs and delivery are currently commercially sensitive. However, regular engagement is taking place between the Phase 1 and Phase 2 teams to ensure that communications and information share is up to date as far as possible. Once the option to purchase the land is confirmed to have been taken (or not) the Phase 2 works will continue to be delivered in full co-operation with the developer/owner under the supervision of the CDM advisor. The most recent meetings have been attended by the scheme CDM advisor to ensure that information is being shared and best practice is being followed to ensure the safety of the construction teams and the lowest risk design and construction approaches are being taken. 7.2.2 RISKS Key risks associated with the delivery of Phase 1 of the NWRR, are included as part of the Phase 2 risk register in the appendices. These risks include ownership and uptake of the options by the developer, the tie in of the Phase 1 and phase 2 roads and the risks associated with two contractors sharing the same site. The most recent meetings have been attended by the scheme CDM advisor to ensure that information is being shared and best practice is being followed for the safety of the construction teams, and the lowest risk design and construction approaches are being taken. In addition to the risks, opportunities are included in the register where savings can be made by the co- ordination of the works, for example the borrow pits and sharing access routes. 7.3 PHASE 2 7.3.1 EVIDENCE OF SIMILAR PROJECTS NCC has delivered a number of successful transport schemes in the region, working alongside their internal and external contractors. Previous schemes include:
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• A45 Daventry Development Link Road: A new 3.5km single carriageway, starting at a new roundabout on the existing A45 between the villages of Dodford and Weedon. It then passes to the north of the villages of Weedon, Flore and Upper Heyford before rejoining the A45 at a new roundabout between Upper Heyford and the M1 Motorway at Junction 16. The scheme was successfully delivered and cost a total of £40.9 million which was funded by the SEMLEP Local Growth Deal, the Highways England Growth and Housing Fund, Northamptonshire County Council, Daventry District Council and developer funding. • Cycle CoNNect: A 24 hour on-street bike hire service in Northampton, with bikes available to hire across the network at any time, every day. Northampton have developed a network of 9 Cycle CoNNect docking stations across Northampton where you can hire and return a bicycle and there will be 50 bikes available to hire across the network at any time of the day, every day. This is a successful scheme development by Northamptonshire Country Council which can be used by residents, commuters, students and visitors. The NWRR will add to NCC’s portfolio of transport schemes. Once completed, combined, they will help to address the existing transport constraints and help to deliver growth in the region. 7.3.2 PROJECT DEPENDENCIES The key project dependency is the Dallington Grange SUE. This is due to the NWRR running along the northern boundary of the SUE and providing direct access into the site from both the A428 and A5199. The development is dependent on access from the NWRR, as such the scheme is needed to prevent this traffic loading onto the existing network. The developers of Dallington Grange are scheduled to construct the westernmost section from the A428 to just south of the railway. Both the SEMLEP Strategic Economic Plan and West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy set out the need for significant housing growth in the area, with Dallington Grange providing a vital contribution to this target. As stated above, regular engagement is taking place with the Phase 1 developers, and the Phase 2 works will continue to be delivered in full co-operation with the developer/owner under the supervision of the CDM advisor. Additionally, the Northampton North of Whitehills and Northampton West SUE will also require wider support from the relief road to support the delivery and feasibility of these housing developments. Dallington Grange, Northampton North of Whitehills and Northampton West SUEs comprise of a total of proposed 6,600 housing units in North West Northampton. It is considered that the NWRR is required to facilitate this housing growth. Having established the need for the scheme in the West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy, the January 2016 Cabinet Meeting recognised that the relief road should be one of NCC’s next priorities for major road schemes, subject to land acquisitions and planning permissions which is in progress. 7.3.3 GOVERNANCE, ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE AND RULES The Government has announced that two new unitary authorities will replace the existing County and District/Borough Councils in Northamptonshire from April 2021. This change will take place while the NWRR is under construction. Subject to the successful passage of the necessary Structural Change Order through Parliament, elections for the new authorities will take place in May 2020. The new councils will initially shadow authorities before becoming formally constituted as local authorities from 1st April 2021. Until that date the existing authorities continue to be responsible for their functions.
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Northamptonshire County Council will therefore be responsible for awarding contracts and commencing construction of the NWRR until the responsibility for these contracts and the completion of construction of the road passes to the new West Northamptonshire Council from 1st April 2021. Once the road is completed, West Northamptonshire Council will be responsible for it as the local highway authority. The Capital Programme Delivery Unit (CPDU) within Northamptonshire Highways is responsible for day to day management of NWRR and other major highway projects. The CPDU provides monthly highlights reports to NCC for all major projects. These reports are presented and discussed monthly at a meeting of the Major Projects Board attended by all CPDU Project Directors and Project Managers, Project Board members and representatives from Development Management, Property, LGSS Law to bring together the various disciplines which contribute to the successful delivery of a major highways project. The Major Projects Board meet monthly and provide the strategic programme direction, under which the NWRR project sits. The Programme Board overview the decision making and are the point of escalation, and coordinate with key planning and corporate matters, key partners and stakeholders. The Major Projects Board discusses the following for each scheme: • Review of programme and progress in period (whether planning, design or site activities etc.) • Budget • Review of any design options • Communication and Stakeholder Liaison • Planning matters • Risks and opportunities • Procurement, land and legal matters In addition to the monthly Major Projects Board meeting, each scheme is provided with specific direction by a Project Board consisting of a Senior Responsible Owner and Senior User from NCC, a Senior Supplier from KierWSP and the CPDU Project Director for the scheme. The Project Board’s key decision maker, the Senior Responsible Officer, is a senior NCC manager and takes direction directly from Directors, the Chief Executive and Cabinet Members of NCC. The CPDU Project Manager reports to the Project Board which provides direction and a point of escalation in the event of risks and issues being identified such as a deviation from programme or budget. The Project Board also meets at key points in the delivery programme to agree moving to the next stage e.g. from design to mobilisation. Project Boards are convened as and when required to supplement the monthly meeting and reporting. Day-to-day leadership of the project is provided by the CPDU Project Manager whilst delivery activities are managed by Works Package Managers working alongside a Design Coordinator. Direction is provided by the CPDU Project Director. The CPDU team manages delivery of projects on behalf of the client and operates as an extension of the client’s commissioning team assuming responsibility for ensuring that the desired project outcomes and any budget or other constraints are understood by all parties. The CPDU Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that appropriate work packages are issued to all parts of the delivery team and monitors and reports on progress against agreed programme and outcomes. The CPDU PM acts as the interface between the Project Board and delivery teams, ensures that the Board is always appraised of scheme progress and risks and is responsible for cascading the Board’s direction to the project team as necessary.
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The Project Management Team has overall responsibility for commissioning and managing the Project Team, including overseeing the day-to-day task management. The team includes the Project Manager, Project Director, Assistant Project Manager and Design Co-Ordinator. Their responsibilities focus on the main project level matters which are elevated to the Project Board on exception basis. The CPDU Project Manager liaises regularly with the wider delivery team with weekly or fortnightly design, planning or other subject skype meetings are held to ensure coordination of activities and identify issues for escalation or decision making. Regular risk workshops are conducted with the project delivery team. The day-to-day delivery of the NWRR will be provided by the Project Team including representatives across Procurement, Planning, Land, Legal and Communications to name a few. The Project Team will meet frequently and report to the Project Management Team. The following diagram provides an overview of the project governance structure, as of January 2020 including the key roles and responsibilities.
Figure 7-1 - NWRR Project Governance Structure
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7.3.4 ASSURANCE AND APPROVALS PLAN The scheme will be managed day-to-day by Northamptonshire Highway’s Capital Programme Delivery Unit (CPDU), which, since its creation in 2009, has successfully provided enhanced governance and management of NCC’s major highways programme. The CPDU has managed the delivery of highway projects valued in excess of £160 million to programme and budget. The CPDU draws upon the resources and skills available within NCC, their highway services provider and external organisations with Project Directors and Project Managers appointed based on appropriate skills and experience. Staff within the CPDU work to Terms of Reference agreed with NCC and in accordance with externally accredited ISO 9001:2015 project management processes based on Prince 2 project management methodology, with projects managed by end stage and exception. The business case is being developed in line with the 2019 SEMLEP Assurance Framework. The framework covers robust governance and decision making, accountability and transparency and strong practices to ensure probity. This includes ensuring value for money, clear project prioritisation, independent appraisal, approval, due diligence, risk management, project delivery and evaluation. In line with the assurance process, the business case has been developed using the Department of Transport’s WebTAG Transport Appraisal Guidance for the full business case and value for money aspects of the scheme. 7.3.5 PROJECT PLAN A project plan has been developed for Full Business Case which covers each key stage of the project and the critical path. The detailed project milestones are set out in the project plan in Appendix L. The Project Manager will have overall responsibility for delivering the tasks required to achieve key milestones. Key timescales are summarised below: • Full Business Case submitted January 2020; • Planning Consent decision 2020; • Detailed Design completion and submission 2020. • Construction begins Autumn 2020; • Expected Construction completion in 2021/2022. 7.3.6 COMMUNICATIONS AND STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT NCC has a robust stakeholder engagement and communications process which is used on all significant projects through a dedicated in-house team. NCC and their design consultants continue to work with land owners, key stakeholders and members of the public to ensure that a clear and transparent process is being undertaken based upon the specific needs of each group in line with guidance and statutory processes. The Strategic Case highlights the consultation and stakeholder engagement which has taken place to date. This clear, open engagement and dialogue will continue into the next stages of the project, with further update and a full Communications Plan provided in Appendix M.
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7.3.7 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY The proactive and detailed management of risk and uncertainty through accurate evaluation and proactive mitigation of risks is critical to the success of the project. The Technical Project Manager continues to oversee the management of risks associated with the project, with individual risks assigned to specific owners to action and monitor. As stated, a thorough risk assessment process and provision of mitigation measures has been established and are being undertaken through the development of this scheme, including a number of risk workshops with the design team, technical specialists and NCC. The risk register is a live document over the course of the scheme programme with attendance at future risk workshops dependent based upon the stage of the project. The latest version of the scheme risk register is provided in Appendix C. This outlines the scheme risks with initial risk rating and post-mitigation rating, including details of the action owners and mitigation measures. maintained and updated at regular project governance board meetings. The risk register, including all scheme delivery risks, will also form part of the quarterly monitoring reports to SEMLEP. Key risks to the delivery of the scheme at this stage includes the risk of Judicial Review (JR) by residents’ groups in the planning application because of concerns over any medium term negative traffic impact at the northern end of the NWRR where it ties back into the existing network. It is not anticipated that a JR will follow, as the opportunities for one will be minimised both by the planning application itself being robust, and by the County Council as planning authority undertaking all the proper processes and addressing all the issues, particularly those from objectors in their committee report. Government approval has now been given for two unitary authorities in Northamptonshire. The new authorities will be in operation from April 2021. As described above, the NWRR is strongly supported by Members and senior officers from the existing local authorities which will be replaced by the West Northamptonshire Council. On this basis, Northamptonshire County Council will be making the key decisions which are necessary to ensure the delivery of the scheme. The NWRR provides an excellent opportunity for the new West Northamptonshire Authority to demonstrate an early success in delivering an important piece of infrastructure and associated housing and growth. This should provide further confidence that the restructuring of local government in Northamptonshire will not be allowed to delay this key scheme and the use of SEMLEP funding by the end of March 2021. 7.3.8 BENEFITS REALISATION AND MONITORING The purpose of benefits realisation plan is to track the expected benefits to be accrued over the lifetime of the scheme as shown in Table 7-1. The plan details the activities required to track the progress of the scheme including project milestones and responsibilities. Monitoring will take place prior to scheme opening (baseline) and at predefined intervals upon successful delivery of the scheme. The table sets out a 1-year post development target for 2022 and a 5-year post development target for 2026. The 1-year and 5-year targets have been produced in line with DfT Monitoring and Evaluation framework.
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These targets vary in respect that some are cumulative, for example housing delivery up to 2026; and some are comparisons between the relevant years. These targets were derived from analysis of the traffic modelling, COBALT and Northamptonshire uncertainty log for housing. Where targets have been derived for the peaks, the AM Peak has been used as a representative of the peak hours. Within their Assurance Framework, SEMLEP set a schedule of milestones which are agreed with the project manager and the funds are only released once the milestone has been reached and approved by the SEMLEP task group. In November 2017 an additional process was added to provide further assurance to the accountable body of the compliance of each project with the terms of their funding agreement prior to releasing each payment. Where a milestone is no longer achievable this will be reviewed and considered by Growth Fund Task Force group as a change request. The accountable body sits at the Growth Fund Task Group to advise. Where procurement needs to be undertaken to facilitate the programme delivery this will be subject to compliance with the SEMLEP procurement policy which is overseen by the Finance, Risk and Audit Committee.
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Table 7-1 - Scheme Benefit Monitoring Objective Beneficiary Outcomes Benefit Baseline 1-year post 5-year post Measures development development target (2022) target (2026) To support free To utilise the Reduce vehicle Change in vehicle Compared with no Compared with no • All Road Users flow traffic transport network hours on local hours on local scheme and no scheme and no • Local movement on key to unlock growth routes in the area. routes. Dallington Grange, Dallington Grange, Businesses local routes in and enable vehicle hours on vehicle hours on • New Residents North West regeneration in local routes to fall local routes to fall • NCC Northampton Northampton. by 107 in the AM by 67 in the AM • Developers during off peak peak. peak. • Non-Road periods, and Users minimise delay (Accidents) during peak • Local Residents periods.
To increase To support Reduce vehicle Change in vehicle Compared with no Compared with no journey time strategic hours on strategic hours for car and scheme, car and scheme, car and reliability and connectivity to routes in the area. LGV (excluding LGV hours to fall LGV hours to fall minimise travel promote efficiency Dallington Grange by 267 in the AM by 342 in the AM costs on key and resilience on Increase national traffic). peak. peak. strategic routes in strategic routes. and international wider connectivity Change in vehicle Compared with no Compared with no Northamptonshire. to/from hours for HGV scheme, HGV scheme, HGV Northamptonshire. (excluding hours to fall by 3 in hours to fall by 4 in Dallington Grange the AM peak. the AM peak. traffic).
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Objective Beneficiary Outcomes Benefit Baseline 1-year post 5-year post Measures development development target (2022) target (2026) To unlock housing To improve local Support an Number of new 1,575 dwellings 435 dwellings development at connectivity to increase in housing units and delivered in delivered in Dallington Grange. unlock Dallington housing supply additional Dallington Grange Dallington Grange Grange for and choice for development at SUE by 2026 as SUE by 2022 as housing. residents of Dallington Grange. per per Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire Northamptonshire uncertainty log. uncertainty log.
To support the To improve local Support an Number of new 1,143 dwellings 2,877 dwellings delivery and connectivity to increase in housing units and delivered in delivered in purchase of support the housing supply additional Dallington Grange, Dallington Grange, planned housing delivery of planned and choice for development in the Buckton Fields and Buckton Fields and development sites housing and residents of surrounding area. Northampton West Northampton West in North West economic growth Northamptonshire. SUEs by 2022 as SUEs by 2026 as Northampton to in per per support economic Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire Northamptonshire growth. uncertainty log. uncertainty log.
To improve access To realise Increase the radius Compared with no Compared with no Change in number to employment opportunities to to employment scheme, scheme, of trips with a trip sites for residents reduce the opportunities for approximately 5% approximately 5% time of less than in North West imbalance of local residents in more trips in the more trips in the 15 minutes. Northampton. economic growth North West AM peak with a trip AM peak with a trip in Northampton in Northampton. time of less than time less than 15 a national context. 15 minutes in minutes in 2026. 2022.
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Objective Beneficiary Outcomes Benefit Baseline 1-year post 5-year post Measures development development target (2022) target (2026)
To reduce the To generate a Increased Quality Total road Total road Reduction in the number and greater quality of of life due to added accidents in the accidents in the number and severity of life and safety confidence using area to reduce by area to reduce by severity of accidents in North benefits for active travel 10% (15 9% (13 accidents) accidents in North West residents in North modes. accidents) compared to no West Northampton, West compared to no scheme in 2026. Northampton. particularly in hot Northampton. scheme in 2022. spot areas. Total cumulative reduction of 72 accidents between 2021 and 2026, compared to no scheme.
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Objective Beneficiary Outcomes Benefit Baseline 1-year post 5-year post Measures development development target (2022) target (2026) To support the To support a Better air quality As per targets for As per targets for Change in vehicle reduction of reduction in the and reduction of objectives 1 and 2, objectives 1 and 2, hours on local emissions and impact of emissions (such as reduced vehicle reduced vehicle routes in the better air quality in Northamptonshire nitrogen dioxide) to hours to contribute hours to contribute vicinity of AQMAs the vicinity of Highways Air support quality of to the reduction in to the reduction in near NWRR AQMAs in Quality Strategy life for local emissions and emissions and (AQMA nos. 2, 3, Northampton. (2013) “To reduce residents in improve air quality improve air quality 4, 6 and 8). the number of Northampton. at AQMA locations. at AQMA locations. transport-related AQMAs in Supporting Northamptonshire Northampton’s to zero and goal to become maintain that carbon neutral by position.” 2030.
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