Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21St to 30Th May 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 81

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21st to 30th May 2021

st 21 May 2021

© NOCC May 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°81 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th May 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also assesses the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021. This dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the Monsoon over the rest of the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad They include: - Gamboura and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Mindourou, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Sangmelima, Akom II, Ambam Kribi and Zoetele in the South region; - Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham and Foumban in the West region; - Idenau, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mundemba, Fontem, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Kumba and Mamfe in the South West region; - Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Dibombari and Edea in the Littoral region. NB1: This dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwaves (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities of the North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) the Far North (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua), Centre (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yaounde), South (Djoum, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, Kribi, Ambam and Lolodorf), East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam, Belabo, Moloundou, Kika and Mindourou) and Littoral region s (Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja). II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region;

- Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua-Boulai in the East region;

- Ako and Audu in the North West region. st th NB2: This dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West region

(Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West region (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) II.2. For Precipitation The period from 21st to 30th May 2021 will be marked by a general decrease in rainfall amounts in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, the Highlands Zone and the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone, as opposed to the Bimodal Rain Forest Zone where rainfall amounts will increase as compared to the last dekad.

NB3: This dekad, from 21st to 30th May 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions), in the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regionsIII.) and Climate in the Guinean forecasts High Savannah for the Zone five (Adamawa agro-ecological region); zones for the period from 11th to 20th May 2021 -the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). This dekad could also be marked by an increase in the number of successive days without rain in the bimodal rain forest zone and the monomodal rain forest zone.

2 1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the southern part of the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts slightly below those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Banyo, Mbakaou Ngaoundere, Tibati and Ngaoundal; around the mean in Meiganga and Tignere. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - Above average rainfall amounts recorded (a) (b) during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Mbandjock and Akonolinga; below average in Yoko and around average in Ngoro in the Centre region; - Above average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Djoum, Kribi and Zoetele; around average in Campo, Akom II, Sangmelima and Ambam in the South region - Above average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Bertoua, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang and Belabo; around average in Batouri and Betare- Oya in the East region. Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that d) In the High plateaux zone recorded during the period May 11-20, 2021 (a) - below average rainfall amounts recorded Source : NOCC, May 2021 from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Batcham, Bazou, Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Makam; around average in Bafoussam, st th Bafang, Dschang, Mbouda, Bamendjou, NB 5: For the dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021, we expect: Bangangte, Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rain West region; Forest Zone (Centre, South and East regions); -below average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West Benakuma, Kumbo, Ndop and Fundong; and North-West regions) and the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone around average in Nkambe, Nwa, Bali, Batibo, (Littoral and South-West regions) the Guinean High Savannah

Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Zone (Adamawa region); Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the North West region. - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far North and North regions). e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone -rainfall amounts below those recorded during th th the dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem in the South West region; - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum and; above average in Baptek; around average in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral region.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Koutaba, Dschang, Foumbot, Bazou, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Bafang, Bangangte, Tonga and Makam; above the mean in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham and during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Foumban in the West region; 37.18°C in the Far North region, 34.6°C in the North region, - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Fontem, Nguti and Ekok; above the 31.16°C in the Adamawa region, 27.81°C in the Centre region, mean in Idenau, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mundemba, Fontem, Buea, Bakogo, 28.63°C in the South region, 317.7°C in the East region, 25.91°C Limbe, Kumba and Mamfe in the South West region; in the West region, 26.42°C in the North-West region, 27.43°C in - Above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, the South-West region and 27.68°C in the Littoral region, for the Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: III, Dibombari and Edea in the Littoral region. - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Kaele Mora, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo and Waza; above the historical mean in Gamboura and Mokolo; below the historical mean in Makary in the Far North region - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider and Poli; above average in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar and (a) (b) Yoko in the Centre region - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua- Boulai; above the mean in Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Mindourou, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo; around the mean in Libongo and Mambele in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Sangmelima, Akom II, Ambam Kribi and Zoetele; around the mean in Djoum, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf; below the mean in Campo in the South region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Munkep, Furu-Awa, Audu and Ako; around the mean in Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong, Benakuma, Nwa and Wum; below the mean in Esu in the North West region; Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, May 2021)

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Benakuma, recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021, for the dekad from Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop and Wum; below the mean in Esu, in the 21 to 30 May 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: North West region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May th th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021 in Bangangte, 2021 in Waza, Kousseri, Mindif, Makary, Maroua, Bogo, Maga, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Bafang, Bazou, Yagoua and Kaele; below the mean in Mora and Mokolo in the Far Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region. North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo and Guider; above the mean in Touboro in the North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere, Nassarao and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Kongolo, Garoua-Boulai (a) and Mindourou in the East region; (b) - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Ngoro, Eseka, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Obala and Yaoundé in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Zoetele, Sangmelima, Akom II Kribi, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, and Ambam; below the mean in Djoum, Nyabizan and Campo in the South region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Bamusso, Eyumojock, Tiko, Limbe, Mamfe, Nguti, Kumba, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Idenau, Fontem and Buea; above the mean in Ekok and Mundemba in the South West region; - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Melong,

Nkongsamba, Pouma, Manjo, Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 (b) compared Douala, Nyanon, Edea, Ndokama, Loum, Mouanko, Yabassi and to those recorded for the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 (a). Mbanga in the Littoral region; Source: NOCC, May 2021

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region;

- Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region;

- Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Mindourou, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Sangmelima, Akom II, Ambam Kribi and Zoetele in the South region;

- Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham and Foumban in the West region; - Idenau, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mundemba, Fontem, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Kumba and Mamfe in the South West region; - Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala,

Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Dibombari and Edea in the Littoral region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ako and Audu; around the mean in Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures Wum, Nwa, Munkep, Furu Awa, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop and Benakuma in the recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 25.7°C in the Far North North West region; region; 25°C in the North region; 20.7°C in the Adamawa - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, region; 19°C in the Centre region; 20.7°C in the South region; Nguti, Mundemba, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang and Eyumojock; above the mean in Idenau, 20°C in the East region; 16.8°C in the West region; 16.8°C in Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba; below the mean in South West region; the North-West region; 20.7°C in the South-West region and - above the mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Ndokama, Edea, Mbanga, st th 20.4°C in the Littoral region, for the dekad from 21 to 30 May Yabassi, Dizangue, Mouanko, Baptek, Douala, Manjo and Penja; around the mean in 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral region.

- below the historical mean recorded for the same period from

1979 to 2018 in Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora; around the mean in Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo and Lagdo; below the mean in Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; around the mean in Banyo; above the mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period (a) (b) from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo and Ngambe Tikar; around the mean in Nanga Eboko, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoyla and Kozo; around the mean in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri, Moloundou and Betare Oya; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi and Campo; around the mean in Zoetele, Djoum, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Akom II, Lolodorf, Nyabizan and Ambam in the South region;

- around the historical mean recorded for the same period from Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (21-30 May 2021) (b) compared to 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, May 2021 Bamendjing, Bazou, Foumbot, Tonga, Bangangte and

Foumban; above the mean in Makam in the West region; 7 Based on the difference between the average minimum -around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok th th temperatures recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 May and Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe and Buea; below the mean st th 2021, for the dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021, we expect in Kumba and Nguti in the South West region. minimum temperatures: - - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makary, Bogo, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua, Mokolo, Waza and Mora in the Far North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Tchollire, Pitoa and Lagdo; below the mean in Garoua, Dembo, Guider, Poli, Rey Bouba and Touboro in the North region; - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere, Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Nkoteng; below the mean in Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Obala, (a) Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, (b) Monatele, Yoko and Bafia in the Centre region; - below the mean recorded during the period from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla and Yokadouma; around the mean in Koso and Betare Oya in the East region; - below the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South region; - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Makam Mbouda, Magba, Bafoussam and Bafang; below the mean in Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot in the West region; - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa and Wum; below the mean in Esu in the North West region Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th May 2021 in Penja, from 11th to 20th May 2021 (a). Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba and Source: NOCC, May 2021

Yabassi; above the mean in Mouanko, Edea and Douala; below the mean in Baptek in the Littoral region;

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021, particular attention should be paid, to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

-Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora, in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North region;

- Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai, in the East region; - Ako and Audu, in the North West region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of: • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high - continuous drying up of water supply points due to drought and continuous temperatures in the Far North and North regions; decrease in the water table in the Far North Region and the northern part of the • water stress for vegetable and food crops in the Far North and North regions due to the North Region; scarc ity of water resources and drought; - decrease in the volume of water in dams, water catchment and treatment points in the -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South-West and Far North and northern part of the North Region; Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. - the falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by

strong winds in the Guinean high savannah zone, the bimodal rain forest zone, the b) In the health sector: monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands zone; A risk of recording cases of: -the contamination of groundwater, surface water and water catchment points by • meningoc occal meningitis, due to the severe dry season, coupled with the increased dust in the polluted runoff in the bimodal rain forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, the air in the Far North and North regions; Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands zone. • water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: • cases of cholera in some settlements in the bimodal rain forest zones and the Guinean High A high risk of recording numerous cases of: Savannah Zone, due to the pollution of drinking water by polluted run-off water; - bush fires in many localities in the Far North and North Regions; • respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), due to dust - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in increasingly present in the air in the Far North and North regions; search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; • conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North and - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in North regions; search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; • general pathologies in people suffering from hypertension, diabetes, obesity and women in - A high risk of observing morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in menopause, due to heat, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones; the Centre, South and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west • proliferation of malaria causing vectors (mosquitoes) in the 05 Agro-ecological zones. (Highlands zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone);

- A high risk of recording cases of floods in some localities especially in the large c) For the livestock sector agglomerations of the bimodal rain forest zone, in some localities of the monomodal A high risk of recording cases of: • continued migration of transhumant herders in search of water and pasture in the Far North rain forest zone and in some localities (Douala, Nkongsamba, etc.) in the South and Region and in many localities in the North Region; Eastern part of Ngaoundere. •an increase in conflicts (herders versus farmers and between herders) around water points in the -landslides in some localities in the North-West and West Regions (Highlands Zone), plains and pasture lands in the Far North and North Regions; due to waterlogging as a result of rainfall registered since the beginning of the rainy •numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some localities of the season. West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); f) In the defence and security sector: continued scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North Region and in many A risk of recording cases of: localities in the North Region; - cases of conflicts between herders, in search of water and food for their livestock, • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by heavy thunder in and farmers in the Far North and North regions the Guinean high savannah zone. - conflicts between populations from different localities of the Far North and North regions, due to limited pasture and water resources for various purposes (consumption, irrigation, etc.).

th th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 25,7 25 20,7 20 19 20,7 16,8 16,8 20,7 20,4

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 81 80,2 86,3 80 84,8 80,7 83 82,3 82,5 85 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 38,08 36,1 32,34 29,01 27,88 29,31 26,46 27,08 28,4 28,25 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 85,3 84,3 83,5 85 82,5 85 80,7 88,5 85 85,9 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the Agriculture sector, continue to Plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar drawn up by NOCC for the 2021 season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filter drinking water before consumption and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ Dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of cholera in order to take care of them. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]