Cole County/Jefferson City Hazard Mitigation Plan

2016

Prepared by: Mid-Missouri Regional Planning Commission 206 East Broadway P.O. Box 140 Ashland, MO 65010 Phone: (573) 657-9779 Fax: (573) 657-2829 Plan updates available online at www.mmrpc.org

Cover Photos (clockwise from upper left):

 US Army Corps of Engineers photo taken in 1993 of the HWY 63/54 intersection just north of the Missouri River Bridge outside of Jefferson City.

 Inspection of the Renn’s Lake Dam failure in 2009 (Jefferson City News Tribune, photo by Julie Smith).

 A Russellville home after a 2007 ice storm that caused damage across much of Western and Central Missouri (Jefferson City News Tribune, photo by Julie Smith).

 Damage to home after an F4 tornado touched down in Southwest Missouri in 2008 (Missouri State Highway Patrol).

The planning process for the update of the Cole County/Jefferson City Hazard Mitigation Plan was led by the Mid-Missouri Regional Plan Commission through a contractual agreement with the MO State Emergency Management Agency and Cole County.

Mid-Missouri Regional Planning Commission 206 East Broadway, P.O. Box 140 Ashland, MO 65010 Phone: (573) 657-9779 Fax: (573) 657-2829

Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1 Plan Adoption ...... 7 Log of Post-Adoption Changes to Plan ...... 19 List of Major Acronyms Used in Plan ...... 21 Section 1: Introduction and Planning Process ...... 23 1.1 Purpose ...... 23 1.2 Background ...... 24 1.3 History of the Hazard Mitigation Plan ...... 24 1.4 Participating Jurisdictions ...... 26 1.5 The Update Process ...... 27 Section 2: Planning Area Overview...... 35 2.1 Geography, Geology and Ecology ...... 35 2.2 Climate ...... 42 2.3 History ...... 44 2.4 Natural Hazard History ...... 45 2.5 Population, Housing and Poverty ...... 47 2.6 Education ...... 52 2.7 Employment and Income ...... 53 2.8 Transportation and Commuting Patterns ...... 56 Section 3: Planning Area Assets and Capabilities ...... 59 3.1 Critical Facilities Overview ...... 59 Government...... 60 Fire Protection ...... 61 Water Supply ...... 62 Wastewater ...... 63 Medical Facilities ...... 64 Emergency Management Agency ...... 66 3.2 County and Communities ...... 69

Cole County ...... 69 Jefferson City ...... 73 Russellville ...... 77 St. Martins ...... 79 St. Thomas ...... 81 Taos ...... 83 Wardsville ...... 85 3.3 School Districts and Higher Education ...... 88 Blair Oaks R-II School District...... 88 Cole R-V School District ...... 90 Jefferson City Public Schools ...... 91 Lincoln University ...... 93 3.4 Non-governmental and Volunteer Organizations ...... 94 3.5 Policy, Planning, and Program Capabilities ...... 95 Legal Authority ...... 95 Political Willpower ...... 96 Community and Regional Partnerships ...... 96 Plans and regulations ...... 96 Section 4: Risk Assessment ...... 101 Natural Hazards Affecting the Planning Area ...... 109 4.1 Severe Winter Weather (including Ice, Snow, and Severe Cold) ...... 110 4.2 Severe Thunderstorms (including Damaging Winds, Hail, and Lightning) ...... 119 4.3 Tornado ...... 129 4.4 Flood ...... 136 4.5 Levee Failure ...... 160 4.6 Dam Failure ...... 171 4.7 Extreme Heat ...... 201 4.8 Drought ...... 208 4.9 Wildfire ...... 218 4.10 Earthquake ...... 229 4.11 Land Subsidence/Sinkhole ...... 239

Section 5: Risk Assessment ...... 245 Technological and Human-made Hazards Affecting the Planning Area ...... 245 5.1 Public Health Emergency ...... 246 5.2 Hazardous Materials Release ...... 251 5.3 Transportation Incident ...... 258 5.4 Nuclear Incident ...... 261 5.5 Utility Service Disruption ...... 270 5.6 Cyber Attack ...... 281 5.7 Armed intruder ...... 284 5.8 Terrorism ...... 290 5.9 Civil Disorder ...... 294 5.10 Mass Casualty/Fatality Event ...... 297 Section 6: Mitigation Strategy ...... 299 6.1 Goals, Objectives and Actions ...... 299 6.2 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions ...... 324 STAPLEE and Benefit/Cost Reviews ...... 324 6.3 Implementation and Administration In Participating Jurisdictions ...... 328 Cole County ...... 329 Jefferson City ...... 340 Russellville ...... 349 St. Martins ...... 353 St. Thomas ...... 356 Taos ...... 358 Wardsville ...... 362 Blair Oaks School District ...... 366 Cole R-V School District ...... 370 Jefferson City Public Schools ...... 372 Lincoln University ...... 374 6.4 Integration of Hazard Mitigation into Other Planning Mechanisms ...... 376 6.5 Funding Sources ...... 379 Section 7: Plan Maintenance Process ...... 384

7.1 Plan Monitoring and Evaluation ...... 384 7.2 Plan Updating ...... 385 7.3 Public Participation in Plan Maintenance ...... 386 Appendix ...... 388 Planning Process Documentation ...... 388

“Across the United States, natural, manmade, and other disasters have led to increasing numbers of deaths, injuries, property damages, and disruptions of business and government services. This can take an immense toll on people, businesses and government, especially in these challenging economic times. The time, money and effort to respond to and recover from disasters divert public resources and attention from other important programs.

Hazard mitigation is defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards and their effects. This is crucial to the residents, businesses, and governments of Missouri.

Hazard Mitigation is the only phase of emergency management specifically dedicated to breaking the cycle of damage, reconstruction, and repeated damage.”

- Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, July 2010

Executive Summary

Hazard mitigation focuses on anticipating and lowering risks to lives and property. Natural hazards are taking an increasing toll on lives and property in the United States. The number of FEMA declared Presidential Disasters across the nation has increased drastically over the past two decades. The year 2011 (when an EF-5 tornado devastated the Missouri town of Joplin) set a record with 242 disaster declarations. The cost of these disasters has also increased in recent years, in part because of increased population and a larger built environment but also because of the magnitude of many recent disasters. Hazard mitigation, the cornerstone of emergency management, seeks to address these issues.

Hazard mitigation can save lives and property; it also makes good economic sense. A 2005 study conducted by the National Institute of Building Science found that every dollar spent on mitigation activities saves four dollars in post-disaster recovery costs. Hazard mitigation is a good business practice for both the public and private sectors.

The Plan: Cole County and its jurisdictions have had a FEMA approved hazard mitigation plan in place since 2005; the plan, and the mitigation strategy within it, is updated every five years as required by federal law. For the 2016 update, the Cole County plan has been enhanced to an All Hazards Mitigation Plan. In addition to profiling eleven natural hazards, the plan now also profiles ten technological/human-made hazards which are potential threats. A risk assessment is included for each potential hazard.

The risk assessment (Sections 4 and 5) indicates the natural hazards posing the greatest threat to Cole County as a whole are: tornado, severe thunderstorm, severe winter weather, and an earthquake of significant magnitude at the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Flood is of particular concern for the jurisdictions with land near the Missouri River and other river/branch floodplains. Drought is of concern for the rural parts of the County.

The technological/human-made hazards posing the greatest potential threat are a public health emergency, utility service disruption, cyber attack, armed intruder, cyber attack, and mass casualty/fatality event. Civil disorder is of particular concern for the jurisdictions of Jefferson City and Lincoln University.

Mitigation Currently in Place: Much progress in mitigation has been made in Cole County since the first plan was written in 2005; many mitigation activities are in place in the regular operations of the county, its communities, educational institutions, and special districts.

A number of mitigation actions have been completed since the 2011 update of the plan: new solar-powered warning sirens were installed in the County and Jefferson City, new Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS) were adopted by the jurisdictions and the City of Taos joined the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program).

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 1 2016 Mitigation Strategy: The current mitigation strategy, found in Section 6.1 of the plan, lays out a series of actions to be focused on during the coming five years. Each of the actions has been analyzed as to applicable jurisdiction(s), the agency or department which will lead the effort, and the means of implementing and financing the action. All of these decisions were made by jurisdictional representatives participating as members of the hazard mitigation planning committee. Not every action in the overall mitigation strategy applies to each jurisdiction. For example, “Maintain formal agreements with appropriate shelter locations throughout Cole County” is an action carried out by the Cole County Emergency Management Agency, working in conjunction with the American Red Cross. Other jurisdictions do not need to do anything with this action, although they do benefit from it. An example of an action applicable to many jurisdictions is “Encourage the construction of tornado safe rooms”; this is an important action which most of the jurisdictions will be undertaking to address their own particular circumstances. Each participating jurisdiction in the plan has resolved to execute some of the specific actions outlined in the strategy. Section 6.3 of the plan contains a subsection for each participating jurisdiction which outlines the actions for which that jurisdiction is responsible. Government officials can easily find their jurisdiction in Section 6.3 in order to thoroughly familiarize themselves with the tasks ahead.

While it is to be hoped that many of the mitigation actions in the strategy will have been completed before the next five-year update, nothing in the plan is legally binding on the participating jurisdictions.

The 2016 countywide mitigation strategy is shown in its entirety below, organized by the five major mitigation goals. (Actions continuing from the 2011 plan are in plain text while new actions for 2016 are in bold text.) Goal 1: Mitigation Planning - Mitigate effects of future natural hazards throughout the County through public and private cooperation.

 Ensure that public facilities proposed for floodplain will comply with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).  Encourage new public facilities to have adequate road access above the floodplain.  Continue development of storm water programs and ensure adequate maintenance of drainage systems.  Continue to review and update school plans on an annual basis to ensure that they adequately address all potential threats from identified hazards.  Continue to encourage fire and water districts to have alternate power supplies.  Continue to encourage all water providers to install electric transfer switches and/or backup generators.  Encourage community participation in the annual Earthquake Awareness Day.  Develop a Debris Removal Plan.  Develop a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Cole County/Jefferson City and the smaller communities regarding public works assistance.  Develop a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP).

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 2  Continue to encourage local hotels/motels to provide their customers with high wind/tornado information including location and directions to local shelters, directions, and where to go in the hotel in the event of a disaster.  Promote knowledge of and volunteer participation in the SAVE Coalition.

Goal 2: Mitigation Policy - Develop policies that limit the impact of natural hazards on lives and property.

 Review and update flood damage prevention ordinance to ensure maximum protection from flood hazard events.  Continue to advise property owners on retrofitting their homes and businesses to better respond to floods.  Continue to enforce flood damage prevention/floodplain management ordinances in compliance with NFIP requirements.  Maintain bridge and culvert standards to prevent debris from clogging waterways.  Adopt and enforce model building codes and national engineering standards.  Encourage appropriate land use development downstream from dams.  Discourage road building on dams.  Overflow from dam should not pass over public road.

Goal 3: Mitigation Programs - Implement cost effective and feasible mitigation programs to protect lives and property of Cole County jurisdictions.

 Monitor public infrastructure for any potential flooding issues and mitigate as needed.  Continue to encourage the bracing of high value equipment such as furnaces, water heaters, and above ground tanks.  Provide backup power to all critical infrastructure such as police, fire, hospitals and local government buildings.  Continue to encourage removal of vegetation and combustible materials around homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure using information from Firewise.org.  Continue to alert the public of hazardous weather via early warning sirens/electronic notification system or establish a mass notification system where needed.  Continue to ensure that school buses have two way radio communications that meet or exceed FCC requirements.  Maintain formal agreements with appropriate shelter locations throughout Cole County.  Identify potential transportation for vulnerable populations needing relocation to shelters.  Maintain a system of temporary alternative placement sites ("safe houses") for emergency evacuation and shelter of school populations.  Continue to encourage camping and RV facilities and mobile home parks to have safe rooms on the premises.  Encourage the construction of tornado safe rooms.  Continue to assist owners of regulated high hazard dams with development of the Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) required in conjunction with the inundation studies being conducted.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 3 Goal 4: Public Awareness - Increase public awareness of natural hazards in order to make the public a greater partner in hazard mitigation planning.

 Utilize available SEMA/FEMA materials to educate the public about all hazards affecting the planning area.  Maintain flood warning signs at known flooding locations.

Goal 5: Future Development - Promote hazard-proof development in the jurisdictions of Cole County.

 Continue to encourage developers to include adequate storm water retention facilities on new builds.

Funding and Funding Issues: Some actions in the current mitigation strategy can be put in place given minimal resources and some staff time. However, there are some very important mitigation activities which require major funding. For example, there is a serious lack of tornado safe rooms in the jurisdictions and tornadoes/high winds are one of the greatest threats in the area. More generators and power transfer hookups are also needed to mitigate power outages that often accompany damaging winds or severe winter storms. (Severe winter storms occur almost every year and have been responsible for three Presidential Disaster Declarations since 2006.)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has both pre-disaster and post-disaster mitigation grant programs to help local jurisdictions with mitigation projects. These programs are outlined in Section 6.5 of the plan. The jurisdictions participating in the plan are eligible to apply for funding from these programs; a 25% local match is typically required for the funds received.

Unfortunately, there has been a severe decline in recent years in the amount of pre-disaster federal money available. This creates the unfortunate situation where most federal funding for local mitigation projects becomes available after a disaster has occurred - if a Presidential Disaster Declaration is declared. At that point, 20% of the total federal cost of the disaster is awarded to the state to be used for mitigation projects.

Planning Process: A plan is only as good as the planning process which developed it. A thorough update of the plan was completed with the active participation of representatives from Cole County jurisdictions and utility providers at regularly scheduled meetings over a five month period. The draft plan was presented at two public meetings of the Cole County Commission, and published on the website of the Mid-MO Regional Planning Commission, to allow for input from the general public.

The plan will be evaluated and maintained on a yearly basis with the help of the planning committee; the next complete update will be undertaken in five years.

The ultimate test of a plan is the action taken on the roadmap presented. It is to be hoped that many of the mitigation actions in this plan will have been completed before the next five-year

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 4 update. Action on the strategy in this plan will help to ensure a greater, and more cost-effective, level of protection for the citizens and property of Cole County and its jurisdictions.

The Cole County/Jefferson City Hazard Mitigation Plan can be found online at: http://www.mmrpc.org/reports-library/hazard-mitigation-reports/.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 5

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 6 Plan Adoption

Requirement For multi-jurisdictional plans, each jurisdiction requesting approval of the §201.6(c)(5): plan must document that it has been formally adopted.

Adoption resolutions and adoption letters (school districts and institutes of higher learning) are included in this section.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 7

TAOS

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 13

BLAIR OAKS R-II SCHOOL DISTRICT

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 15

COLE R-V

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 16

LINCOLN UNIVERSITY

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 18

LOG OF POST-ADOPTION CHANGES TO PLAN

Date Pages Change Reason Name/Agency

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 19

Date Pages Change Reason Name/Agency

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 20 LIST OF MAJOR ACRONYMS USED IN PLAN ACS – American Community Survey ARES® - Amateur Radio Emergency Service BCA – Benefit Cost Analysis CDC – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CFR – Code of Federal Regulations CDBG – Community Development Block Grant COOP – Continuity of Operations Plan CSIP – Comprehensive School Improvement Plan DDoS - Distributed Denial of Service DED – Department of Economic Development DHSS - Department of Health and Senior Services DNR – Department of Natural Resources EAP – Emergency Action Plan ECC – Emergency Communications Center EF – Enhanced Fujita EHS – Environmental Health and Safety EMC – Emergency Management Coordinator EMS – Emergency Medical Services EOC – Emergency Operations Center EOP - Emergency Operations Plan EPA – Environmental Protection Agency FAA – Federal Aviation Administration FBI – Federal Bureau of Investigation FCC – Federal Communications Commission FDA – Food and Drug Administration FEMA - Federal Emergency Management Agency FIRM - Flood Insurance Rate Map FMA – Flood Mitigation Assistance GETS – Government Emergency Telecommunications Service GIS – Geographic Information System HAZUS/HAZUS-MH - Risk assessment software program for analyzing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds and earthquakes HMEP – Hazardous Materials Emergency Plan HMGP – Hazard Mitigation Grant Program IT – Information Technology LEPC - Local Emergency Planning Committee MDFS - Missouri Division of Fire Safety MEERTS - Missouri Environmental Emergency Response Tracking System Mid-MO RPC – Mid-Missouri Regional Planning Commission MMI - Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale MoDNR – Missouri Department of Natural Resources MoDOT – Missouri Department of Transportation MSA – Metropolitan Statistical Area MSBA – Missouri School Board Association MSHSAA - Missouri State High School Activities Association

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 21 MULES – a law enforcement computer data network used by the Missouri Highway Patrol MURR – University of Missouri Research Reactor MUSIC – Missouri United School Insurance Council NAWAS – National Warning System NCDC – National Climatic Data Center NDMC - National Drought Mitigation Center NFIP – National Flood Insurance Program NMSZ - New Madrid Seismic Zone NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPSTC - National Public Safety Telecommunications Council NWS – National Weather Service OMB - U.S. Office of Management and Budget PDM - Pre-Disaster Mitigation PDSI - Palmer Drought Severity Index PHHS – Public Health and Human Services PHMSA – Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration POD – Point of Dispersion PSJC – Public Safety Joint Communications PWD – Public Water District PWSD – Public Water Supply District RHSOC – Regional Homeland Security Oversight Committee RSMo – Revised Statutes of Missouri SAME – Specific Area Message Encoding SEMA - State Emergency Management Agency SNS – Strategic National Stockpile SoVI™ - Social Vulnerability Index SPI - Standardized Precipitation Index STAPLEE – a prioritization tool using Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, and Environmental factors for analysis TSA – Transportation Safety Administration USACE – United States Army Corps of Engineers USDA - U.S. Department of Agriculture USGS - United States Geological Survey USFWS – United States Fish and Wildlife Service WD – Water District WUI – Wildland Urban Interface

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 22 Section 1: Introduction and Planning Process

1.1 PURPOSE The Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan is designed as a resource for county and municipal governments, residents, developers, organizations, and others interested in controlling the potentially disastrous effects of natural hazards in Cole County. Each year natural hazards take a great toll in the United States. Cole County is not immune; it is subject to numerous natural hazards which can threaten life and property. A well-conceived mitigation strategy, developed through an inclusive and thoughtful planning process, is an important step in protecting citizens and reducing loss.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) defines mitigation as “sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people and their property from hazards and their effects.” A 2006 study by the Institute for Building Science found that $4 was saved in post- disaster response and recovery for every $1 spent on pre-disaster mitigation.

The Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan was developed by the communities and citizens of Cole County, their elected officials and public servants. The process was carried out by identifying the natural hazards that impact Cole County and its residents, assessing the probability of occurrence and severity posed by each natural hazard, identifying the most vulnerable areas, and evaluating all possible mitigation actions which might be effective. Potential mitigation actions were assessed and prioritized based on the perceived need, probable outcome, potential for being executed, and benefit related to cost.

The plan was developed in accordance with FEMA’s Mitigation Planning regulations under Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 44, Part 201.6, Local Mitigation Plans. Relevant requirements from CFR §201.6 are highlighted throughout the plan.

Multiple jurisdictions within Cole County participated in the development of this plan. Having a current and approved hazard mitigation plan makes each of the participating jurisdictions eligible to apply for FEMA pre-disaster mitigation grants and the mitigation portion of post-disaster mitigation grants.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 23 1.2 BACKGROUND Responding to and mitigating for natural disasters has been a subject of increasing focus for the federal government in the past decades.

The process for declaring Presidential Disasters was established with the passage of the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. In 1988, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act created the organizational framework through which funds and assistance would be provided after a Presidential Disaster Declaration; FEMA was designated to coordinate the relief efforts.

In 1993, FEMA created the Mitigation Directorate to oversee hazard mitigation. This established mitigation as the cornerstone of emergency management.

The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 further defined activities related to disaster relief and mitigation; one of its provisions encourages development of hazard mitigation measures, including land use and construction regulations.

1.3 HISTORY OF THE HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN In November 2003, a “current and approved” hazard mitigation plan became a FEMA eligibility requirement for local jurisdictions applying for pre-disaster mitigation grants and the mitigation portion of post-disaster grant funds.

Due to this change in FEMA grant requirements, the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) contracted with the Missouri Council of Governments for the Regional Planning Commissions to direct hazard mitigation planning for interested counties within their respective regions. Cole County contracted with the Mid-Missouri Regional Planning Commission (Mid-MO RPC), of which they are a member, to facilitate the development of a natural hazard mitigation plan for the county.

A Project Steering Committee was formed to oversee the planning and writing of the original Jefferson City - Cole County Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2005. The plan was approved by FEMA on January 31, 2006.

Maintenance of the Hazard Mitigation Plan 2011-2016

The Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 2011 was written to be a working document to guide participating jurisdictions in the county in mitigating potential natural hazards. To this effect, the plan has been publicly available on the website of the Mid- MO RPC (www.mmrpc.org) since it was approved and adopted in 2011.

The maintenance plan in the 2011 document called for an annual monitoring and review of the plan to be facilitated by the Mid-MO RPC. This monitoring and review was carried out in early 2013. Representatives from each of the participating jurisdictions and other interested parties were contacted by email to attend a plan monitoring meeting. Eleven representatives attended the meeting; discussion centered around the drought of 2012, water main breaks in Jefferson City, installation of new warning sirens in the County and Jefferson City, and adoption of the new FEMA flood maps.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 24

Following the meeting, a survey was sent out to all participating jurisdictions requesting an update any progress on the mitigation strategy outlined in the 2011 plan and any other changes in their jurisdiction; response was received from five jurisdictions.

Information from the surveys and monitoring meeting, along with updated hazard event data and two updated maps (Fire Stations map and Warning Sirens map), was compiled and added to the plan as an Addendum.

Preliminary discussion of a similar monitoring in 2014 never resulted in action. Unfortunately, staff schedules and commitments did not allow the time or resources for any further monitoring to take place.

The Mid-MO RPC disseminates information regarding mitigation grants when funding becomes available.

Nine of the mitigation actions included in the 2011 mitigation strategy have been implemented or completed at this time. A table of these completed mitigation actions is included in Section 6 of this plan (Figure 6.1). Many of the 2011 actions have been kept in the 2016 mitigation strategy either because they have not yet been completed or because they are ongoing actions which the committee wanted to highlight in the overall plan (Figure 6.3)

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 25 1.4 PARTICIPATING JURISDICTIONS

Requirement Multi-jurisdictional plans…may be accepted, as appropriate, as long as each §201.6(a)(3): jurisdiction has participated in the process…

Planners from the Mid-MO RPC (Plan Author) developed the following criteria for a jurisdiction to qualify as a participating jurisdiction in this multijurisdictional plan:

1. Participation in planning meetings via either direct representation or by designated representative from outside the jurisdiction 2. Completion of a survey regarding capabilities, vulnerable assets, and future development 3. Development of plans for administration and implementation of mitigation actions for which the jurisdiction takes the lead 4. Formal adoption of the plan by resolution

The completion of the above criteria by jurisdictions participating in the 2011 and 2016 update planning processes are shown in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 Multi-jurisdictional Plan Participants 2011 Part. 2016 Planning Process 2016 Part. Jurisdiction Juris. Meetings Survey Actions Adoption Juris. Cole County       City of Jefferson     City of Russellville     City of St. Martins       City of St. Thomas     City of Taos     Village of Wardsville     Blair Oaks R-II School District     Cole County R-V School District     Jefferson City School District     Lincoln University    

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 26 1.5 THE UPDATE PROCESS

[The plan shall document] the planning process used to develop the Requirement plan, including how it was prepared, who was involved in the process, §201.6(c)(1): and how the public was involved.

A Hazard Mitigation Plan must be updated and adopted by the participating jurisdictions every five years to be considered current. The update of the Cole County/Jefferson City County Hazard Mitigation Plan was directed by planners from Mid-MO RPC (Plan Author) as specified in a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA).

The general update planning process was as follows:

1. MOA for update finalized and signed (Sept. 2015)

2. Preliminary discussion with Cole County/Jefferson City Emergency Management Coordinator re: update (Oct. 2015)

3. Letter sent from Presiding Commissioner and Emergency Management Coordinator to all communities, school jurisdictions, and Lincoln University explaining update of plan, requesting appointment of a representative to the planning committee, and inviting them to initial update planning meeting (December 2016 – see Appendix)

4. Announcement of initiation of planning process on front page of Mid-MO RPC website; specific invitation to any interested parties in the 6-county Mid-Missouri Region or surrounding counties to participate in the planning process (December 2016 – see Appendix )

5. Planning Committee meetings (Jan. 2016 - May 2016)

6. Survey to officials of participating jurisdictions on capabilities, vulnerable assets, and future development (Jan. 2016)

7. Public Presentation #1 at Cole County Commission (April 5, 2016)

8. Implementation strategies for mitigation actions within jurisdictions (May 2016)

9. Draft of update submitted to SEMA (May 2016)

10. Public Presentation #2 (May 2016)

11. Final plan drafting and review; participating jurisdictions adopt plan (May - Aug. 2016)

12. Final plan submitted to FEMA (via SEMA) for approval (Aug. 2016)

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 27

Planning Committee

The planning representatives for each jurisdiction are shown in Figure 1.2. Bill Farr, Cole County Emergency Management Coordinator, represented the City of Taos at planning meetings (see documentation in Appendix).

Figure 1.2 Jurisdictional Planning Representatives Planning Jurisdiction Position Representatives Bill Farr Emergency Management Coordinator Larry Benz Public Works Director Cole County Shannon Kliethermes Public Works Senior Planner Kristi Campbell Health Department Director Health Dept. Emergency Planner/ Chris White Environmental Specialist City of Jefferson Jason Turner Division Chief (Fire) Eric Barron Senior Planner Britt Smith Public Works Operations Director City of Russellville Karen Platter/Jan Wyatt City Administrator City of St. Martins Doug Reece City Administrator City of St. Thomas Bob Schellman Mayor City of Taos Bill Farr (represent) Emergency Management Coordinator Village of Wardsville David Elliott Mayor Blair Oaks R-II School District Jim Jones Superintendent Dawna Burrow Superintendent Cole County R-V School District Teresa Messersmith Elementary Principal Kurt Mueller Safety & Security Coordinator Jefferson City School District John Moon Project Manager Kevin Pigford Police Captain Lincoln University Caleb Groner Police Corporal

In addition to the regular Planning Committee, the following representatives of other agencies and disciplines attended meetings to assist the update planning on particular issues: Matt Shofield (Jefferson City Fire Dept.); Eric Meyer (Jefferson City IT); Chad Stieferman (Jefferson City Police Dept.); Ralph Lemongelli (Cole County Sheriff’s Dept.); David Kempf (PWSD #1); Randy Kay (PWSD #2); Sheryl Gilmore (PWSD #3); Will Humphrey (PWSD #4); David Treece, Brent Haas, and Aaron Lachowicz (Missouri American Water); Dave Hagan, Bill Burnett and Dennis Bennett (Ameren UE); Bill Wibberg (Three Rivers Electric Coop); and Jacob Gier (Conoco Phillips Pipe Line).

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 28 Melody Welschmeyer and Debbie Malzner (County Commission’s Office), Dawn Cremeans (County Clerk’s Office), Tom Butler (County Assessor’s Office) and Debra Kidwell (Lincoln University) all assisted the planning process with information or tasks.

Jack Crawford, Assistant Director, Environmental Health and Safety (EHS), University of Missouri, provided much of the information on Nuclear Incidents (Section 5.4) during the update of the Boone County Hazard Mitigation Plan; Boone County is Cole County’s neighbor to the north.

The lead planner for the update was Susan Galeota, Regional Planner at the Mid-MO RPC; Katrina Thomas, Regional Planner/GIS Specialist at the Mid-MO RPC provided mapping services.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 29 Planning Committee Meetings Regular meetings of the Planning Committee were held from January 2016 through May 2016. A brief summary of each meeting is shown in Figure 1.3. Meeting announcements and sign-in sheets are included in Appendix.

All hazard mitigation planning meetings were open to the public and public notice was provided in accordance with Missouri’s “Sunshine Law” (Revised Statutes of Missouri 610.010, 610.020, 610.023, and 610.024.) Notice of each meeting was posted at the Cole County Annex in Jefferson City (location of the County Commission and many County offices), the Mid-MO RPC in Ashland, and on the website of the Mid-MO RPC (www.mmrpc.org).

Figure 1.3 Planning Meetings Meeting Meeting Agenda Date General introduction: Overview and history of Cole County/Jefferson City Hazard Mitigation Plan; update process/requirements; planning meeting schedule Discussion and consensus on: 1) inclusion of technological/human-made hazards; 2) Jan. 5, 1 restructuring parts of plan to enhance organization; 3) inclusion of discussion of climate 2016 change effect on hazards Jurisdictional surveys distributed Review of 2011 mitigation strategy: severe winter weather events Review of 2011 mitigation strategy: tornado, thunderstorm, flood, levee failure and dam Jan. 19, 2 failure events 2016 Review of 2011 mitigation strategy: extreme heat, drought, wildfire, earthquake, land Feb. 2, 3 subsidence/sinkhole 2016 Discussion of new hazards (risk assessment/mitigation strategy) to be included in plan: Feb. 16, 4 utility service disruptions (water, gas, electric, wastewater, telecommunications), cyber 2016 attack Discussion of new hazards (risk assessment/mitigation strategy) to be included in plan: March 8, 5 public health emergency, nuclear incident, hazardous materials release, mass 2016 casualty/fatality event, transportation incident Discussion of new hazards (risk assessment/mitigation strategy) to be included in plan: March 6 armed intruder, terrorism, civil disorder 29, 2016 Review overall mitigation strategy: 1) determine applicable jurisdictions and appropriate April 12, 7 lead for each action; 2) STAPLEE, benefit/cost reviews and prioritization of all mitigation 2016 actions Review of: 1) mitigation strategy by jurisdiction; 2) integration of hazard mitigation into other planning 3) project funding 4) maintenance of plan May 3, 8 Discussion of 1) funding possibilities/challenges; 2) plan adoption procedure; timeline of 2016 submission and approval

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 30 Summary of Update

The Planning Committee made the following general decisions regarding the update of the plan:

1. Technological and human-made disasters would be included in the updated plan to make it an all hazards mitigation plan. This will allow all mitigation planning to be done within the same planning process and documented in the same plan.

2. The effect of climate change on hazards profiled would be considered in the update.

3. Certain sections of the plan would be reorganized for better flow and organization of the material.

A general description of changes and updates made to the plan are shown in Figure 1.4.

Figure 1.4

General Review and Update of Plan by Section

Section Pages Section Pages Description Revised (2011) (2011) (2016) (2016) Section 1: Introduction and Planning Process Yes 1 3-17 1 31-42 Changes: Update of process, participants, etc. Section 2: Planning Area Profile and Capabilities Yes 2 18-69 2 43-66 Changes: Section restructured for ease of use. Section 3: Risk Assessment Changes: This section has been divided into three sections: 67-108 The asset information from Section 3.3 (2010 plan) is Section 3 3 (2015 plan). Yes 3 70-192 The natural hazard profiles and vulnerability summaries are 4 109-252 now Section 4. A risk assessment of technological/human-made hazards has 5 253-306 been added to the plan as Section 5. Section 4: Mitigation Strategy Yes 4 193-312 6 307-390 Changes: Strategy updated; this is now Section 6. Section 5: Plan Maintenance Process Yes 5 313-321 7 391-394 Changes: This is now Section 7. Section 6: Maps not not Yes 6 322-330 Changes: Section eliminated; maps integrated throughout plan applicable applicable Appendices Changes: Some material was integrated into body of plan, other Yes App. 331-405 Appendix information was not included in update, and Appendix A (2011) was updated with 2016 process and participant documentation

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 31

In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects Requirement of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: (1) An opportunity §201.6(b): for the public to comment on the plan during the drafting stage and prior to plan approval;

In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: (2) An opportunity Requirement for neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in §201.6(b): hazard mitigation activities, and agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia and other private and non- profit interests to be involved in the planning process;

Before the beginning of the update process, an article was published on the front page of Mid- MO RPC website which specifically invited any interested parties in the 6-county Mid-Missouri Region or surrounding counties to participate in the planning process (Appendix).

In addition, outreach was made the public water supply districts and utility companies serving the planning area to invite them to participate in the planning process. Representatives from most of these agencies attended one or more planning meetings.

Public Meetings for Comment and Input The following two presentations/meetings were held with the specific purposes of raising public awareness of the hazard mitigation plan update process and seeking public comment and input:

1. Public Presentation #1 – April 5, 2016, Cole County Commission meeting. This first presentation/meeting was held after the risk assessment on natural and technological /human-made hazards had been completed.

2. Public Presentation #2 – May 17, 2015, Cole County Commission meeting. This second meeting was held after the mitigation strategy, including the administration and implementation thereof , had been finalized.

The public presentations were announced on the Cole County Commission agenda which is posted in the Cole County Annex, on the County website and sent to news agencies. In addition, the presentations were listed on the calendar of the Mid-MO RPC website and physically posted

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 32 at the Mid-MO RPC. All EMDs of Highway Patrol Region F, the 13 county region including and surrounding Cole County, were invited to the public presentations by email notice.

It was emphasized at the meetings that the current draft of the update is always available online at: www.mmrpc.org (Library Section) with contact information for questions and comments. A short article was posted on the home page of the Mid-MO RPC website on April 5, 2016, indicating the posting of the working draft of the plan on the website and welcoming comments and questions from those in the region and surrounding area.

All documentation is included in Appendix.

Comments Received from the Public There were no comments received from the public, either at the public presentations or via the posting of the plan on the website.

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 33

In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects Requirement of natural disasters, the planning process shall include:

§201.6(b): (3) Review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information.

Many existing plans, studies, and reports were consulted in the development of this plan. These include:

 2008 Bagnell Dam Emergency Action Plan – Osage Project No. 459, Ameren UE  2030 Metropolitan Transportation Plan, Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO)  A Study of Active Shooter Incidents in the United States Between 2000 and 2013, Federal Bureau of Investigation  Atlas of Missouri Ecoregions, Missouri Department of Conservation  Boone County Stormwater Design Manual, Boone County, Missouri  Communicating Before and After a Nuclear Power Plant Incident (June 2013), FEMA  Cole County/City of Jefferson Emergency Operations Plan (2015)  Cole County Local Public Health Emergency Response Plan (2015)  Cole County Master Plan, The  Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for the Mid-MO Region (2009), Mid-MO Regional Planning Commission  Jefferson City Comprehensive Plan, The  Lincoln University Emergency Operations Plan (2008)  Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), Missouri Department of Transportation  Missouri Drought Plan (2002), Missouri Department of Natural Resources  Missouri – Region F Regional Communication Interoperability Plan (R-CIP)(2015)  Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan (2013), Missouri State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA)  Missouri Weather Patterns and Their Impact on Agriculture, Grant L. Darkow, University Extension, University of Missouri-Columbia  National Climate Assessment 2014, U.S. Global Change Research Program (GlobalChange.gov)  Regional Transportation Plan (2016), Mid-MO Regional Planning Commission  Situation Reports (online), Missouri SEMA  Telecommunications Infrastructure in Disasters: Preparing Cities for Crisis Communications (April 2005), Center for Catastrophe Preparedness and Response & Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University

Section 1 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 34 Section 2: Planning Area Overview

2.1 GEOGRAPHY, GEOLOGY AND ECOLOGY Cole County is located in central Missouri with an area covering 391 square miles. It is approximately midway between Kansas City to the west and St. Louis to the east. Jefferson City is the county seat and largest population center; it is also the capital of the State of Missouri. The incorporated communities in the county are: Centertown, Jefferson City, Lohman, Russellville, St. Martins, St. Thomas, Taos and Wardsville (Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 35 Geologically, Cole County has been shaped primarily by the Ozark Uplift in the southeastern part of the state. This geology has implications for the hazards analyzed in this plan. Of particular concern is possible activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to the southeast (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 36 The county is bordered on the north by the Missouri River, which separates it from Boone and Callaway counties, on the east by the Osage River which separates it from Osage County, on the south by Miller County, and on the west by Moniteau County.

The county is located in the northern part of the Ozark Highlands. The Atlas of Missouri Ecoregions, published by the Missouri Department of Conservation, describes the Ozark Highlands as “a distinctive biogeographic region that includes most of southern Missouri and much of northern Arkansas and small parts of Illinois, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Geologically, the Ozark Highlands is a low structural dome of essentially horizontally bedded strata that has been undergoing erosion and weathering for a quarter billion years into a thoroughly dissected plateau”.

Figure 2.3

The Ozark Highlands is very diverse biologically and geographically with rugged hills, prairies, savannas, and open woodlands. The predominant underlying bedrock is carbonate (limestone and dolomite), giving rise to karst topographic features such as caves, underground streams, and sinkholes. Natural springs provide an abundance of fresh water in many areas.

The land area of Cole County falls into five different subsections of the Ozark Highlands distinguished by differing landforms, soils, and vegetation (Figure 2.3). In turn, these subsections give rise to differences in land use patterns, conservation needs, and vulnerability to certain natural hazards.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 37 The following information summarized from the Atlas of Missouri Ecoregions gives brief descriptions of the land types found within the subsections in Cole County.

Inner Ozark Border This subsection includes most of the northern, western, and central parts of the county. It consists of dissected plains and hills with local reliefs averaging 100-150 feet. It encompasses the area of both branches of the Moreau River. Historically, the area was largely oak savanna, woodland, and forest with frequent glades and small prairie openings. Currently, the area consists of row crops, pasture, second growth forests, and overgrown glades. Urbanization pressures are strong in the Jefferson City area.

Osage River Hills This subsection includes the eastern and southern portions of the county. This area lies within the Osage River watershed and is characterized by deeply dissected hills with local reliefs averaging 200-250 feet. High bluffs afford scenic views of the Osage River. Historically, oak woodland was dominant in the area with mixed-oak and mix-hardwood on rougher sites. The area is currently comprised of pastures, small isolated woodlots, cedar thickets, and second-growth forests.

Prairie Ozark Border Fingers of the eastern part of this subsection extend into the western part of Cole County in two locations. This subsection is a high, smooth plain with less than 100 feet of local relief. The underlying strata are limestone and dolomite and the area is blanketed with loess. This area is transitional between the wooded hills of the Ozarks and the open plains to the west; historically, it was mostly prairie with trees alongside streams. Currently, the land is mostly pasture with some significant tracts of cropland.

Outer Ozark Border A small tongue of this subsection extends into the far northwestern part of Cole County. This area is steep loess-covered hills and bluffs along the Missouri River. The underlying strata are limestone and dolomite. This area is the most rugged bluffland on the southern side of the Missouri River west of the Osage River. Prior to European settlement, oak savanna and woodlands dominated the higher areas and dense oak and mixed-hardwoods were found in the steep-sided limestone ravines. Currently, the uplands are primarily fescue pasture and the ravines are second-growth forests and cedar thickets.

Missouri River Alluvial Plain This subsection, consisting of the Missouri River channel and its adjoining alluvial plain, is found along the northern border of the county. Soils are deep and loamy and the area is subject to riverine flooding. Historically, the vegetation was typical bottomland species such as cottonwood, willow, sycamore, silver maple, elm, and hackberry.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 38 The Missouri River’s relationship to Cole County deserves special attention because the river is the defining physical feature in Mid-Missouri and it defines the northern border of the county. It is the longest river in the country and drains approximately one sixth of the United States.

Flood control structures, power plants, and other engineering projects have profoundly changed the course of the river since Lewis and Clark first traversed it in the early 1800s. In recent years debates over the future of the Missouri River have taken place among the seven states through which it runs. Commercial river traffic, recreational use, environmental concerns, managing river levels to comply with the needs of endangered species, and the preservation of sacred and historical sites along the river and floodplain are all issues which make the management of the river a sensitive balancing act.

In both 1994 and 1995 the Missouri River was listed as one of the “10 Most Endangered Rivers in the Country” by American Rivers, a river conservation group (http://www.americanrivers.org/). This “Most Endangered” list does not reflect rivers in the worst condition; rather, it seeks to highlight rivers “confronted by decisions in the coming year that could determine their future.” The Missouri River was chosen for the list in the mid-1990s because of dam, channelization, navigation, and agricultural runoff issues.

The flooding of the river in 2011 brought the controversy over its management into sharp focus. Record snowfalls in the Rockies combined with heavy spring rains to result in record water releases from six reservoirs on the river. Flooding occurred along the river from Montana to Missouri. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers came under sharp criticism for not releasing water earlier in the season so the reservoirs would be able to accommodate the snow melt and rains. Meetings were held throughout the Missouri River Basin where local frustration was voiced over species protection and recreation being prioritized over flood control in river management decisions.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 39 Cole County Land Use

The land use map of Cole County shows clearly the concentrated development in and around Jefferson City in the northern part of the County (Figure 2.4).

Figure 2.4

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 40 Public Land

There are over 6,000 acres of public land in Cole County (Figure 2.5). Most of this land is managed by the Missouri Department of Conservation; in a few cases this is done in conjunction with the Cole County Government or Jefferson City.

Figure 2.5 Public Land in Cole County Name Responsible Agency Acres Binder Lake Jefferson City/MO Department of Conservation 223 Conservation Commission Head Quarters MO Department of Conservation 153 Clark's Hill/Norton State Historic Site MO Department of Natural Resources 13 Honey Creek Access MO Department of Conservation 84 Hough Lake Jefferson City/MO Department of Conservation 6 Jaycee Park Lake Cole County/MO Department of Conservation 7 Jefferson Landing State Historic Site MO Department of Natural Resources ~1 Mari-Osa Access MO Department of Conservation 28 Marion Bottoms Conservation Area MO Department of Conservation 2997 Marion Access MO Department of Conservation 2 McKay Park Lake Jefferson City/MO Department of Conservation 6 Moreau 50 Access MO Department of Conservation 10 Pikes Camp Access MO Department of Conservation 170 Runge Conservation Area and Nature Center MO Department of Conservation 107 Scrivner Road Conservation Area MO Department of Conservation 919 Smith Conservation Area MO Department of Conservation 516 Smoky Waters Conservation Area MO Department of Conservation 1041 St. Thomas Ferry Access MO Department of Conservation ~2 Stringtown Bridge Access MO Department of Conservation 50 Total ~6335 Sources: MO Department of Conservation (MDC), MO Spatial Data Server(MSDIS), MO Department of Natural Resources (DNR)

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 41 2.2 CLIMATE

Cole County, like the rest of the state of Missouri, has variable weather patterns and extremes of temperature. With its central continental location, Missouri receives air masses bringing weather from all directions.

Warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico can bring moisture year round and is the principal source of precipitation in the spring, summer, and fall; in contrast, air from other directions may be hot and dry (southwest), warm and dry (west), cold (northwest and north), cool and moist (northeast). The flow from the different source regions typically changes in a matter of days, giving rise to the commonly heard expression in Missouri, “If you don’t like the weather, wait a day.”

At times, the flow of air from one of the source regions will settle in and persist for weeks or months. These periods are associated with particular upper air flow patterns and associated surface conditions.

The Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan quotes Dr. Grant Darkow of the University of Missouri - Department of Atmospheric Science on the importance of understanding these weather patterns:

“The persistence of these weather patterns and the possible resulting condition is the subject of several of the natural disasters discussed in this study. Specifically, floods, droughts, fires, heat waves, severe cold, and winter storms can be the result of the persistence of one of these weather patterns, whereas tornadoes can represent the outgrowth of rapid shifts in weather patterns. Knowing these patterns may assist in alerting disaster planners and the general public to the possibility of a developing emergency situation.”

While Cole County does have extreme variations in weather at times, there is a relative pattern of temperature and rainfall consistent with a humid continental climate (Figures 2.5-2.6). The data shown in the charts was collected at the Missouri American Water Plant weather station in Jefferson City. The rainfall data collected in the years 1931-1995 showed an average of 39” of rainfall per year; average rainfall in this data set is defined as including precipitation of any form.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 42 Figure 2.6

Average Temperature (1981-2010) Jefferson City WTP 100 90 80

70 60 50 40 Maximum Fahrenheit

° 30 Mean 20 Minimum 10 0

Original Source: National Climatic Data Center Website source: http://ggweather.com/normals/MO.html

Figure 2.7

Average Precipitation (1981-2010) Jefferson City WTP 6

3 Inches 2 Precipitation

1 Snow

Original Source: National Climatic Data Center Website source: http://ggweather.com/normals/MO.html

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 43 2.3 HISTORY Cole County was originally home to the Osage and other groups of indigenous people. White settlers from Kentucky and Tennessee began settling in the area around 1816; the county was officially organized in 1820.

After Missouri was admitted into the United States in 1821, the General Assembly appointed a commission to decide on the permanent location of the state capital. The statute appointing the commission stipulated that the capital was to be on the Missouri River within forty miles of the mouth of the Osage River. The site of present day Jefferson City was eventually chosen as the site; lots were laid out for the town by Daniel Morgan Boone, son of the famous frontiersman, and Major Elias Bancroft. In 1826, Jefferson City was officially designated as the permanent seat of state government and the first capitol building was completed. All the workings of state government, including the Great Seal, were moved from the temporary capital in St. Charles to Jefferson City.

Prior to this there were very few people living in Jefferson City; after 1826, the population began to increase rapidly. In 1837, the capitol building burned; work on a new capitol began the next year using stone from the Missouri River bluffs near the city for the building and limestone from Callaway County for the pillars.

As the state of Missouri grew, so did Cole County; with the capital city located within its boundaries, the county has played a central role in Missouri ever since statehood.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 44 2.4 NATURAL HAZARD HISTORY Cole County has been subject to many natural hazards in the past. Floods, droughts, windstorms, hail, tornadoes, severe winter weather, and extreme heat have all taken their tolls; dam failure has threatened. A brief overview of the more recent natural hazard events in the county will be discussed here; more extensive history will be given with each Hazard Profile in Section 4 of the plan. Technological/human-made hazards, including historical occurrences, are discussed in Section 5.

Probably the most prominent natural hazard within memory is the Flood of 1993 (Figure 2.8). This flood was devastating to much of Missouri and the Midwest; it took a great toll in Cole County. According to data from the U.S. Corps of Engineers (http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/flood/fl93home.html), there was $1Million to $5Million in damages in each of the following sectors in the county: public facilities, residential, transportation system, and utilities. In addition, both commercial property damages and emergency expenses were in the range of $0.5Million to $1Million.

Figure 2.8

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 45 Estimates of the per capita costs of this flood for three sectors in the Mid-Missouri Region are shown in Figure 2.9. It is important to note that this chart reflects per capita cost and that Cole County has the second largest population, by far, in the region. (Neighboring Boone County has the largest population, approximately twice that of Cole County.)

Figure 2.9 Per Capita Costs of 1993 Flood in Central Missouri

Moniteau Howard

Cooper

Cole Callaway Boone $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700

Public Facilties Commercial Residential Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

The devastating flood of 1993 was followed by floods in 1994 and 1995. Cole County was included in Presidential Disaster Declarations for flooding each of these years.

Although the county does not experience severe flooding every year, thunderstorms can be expected annually. In most years there are reports of associated high winds (Windstorms) and Hail someplace in the county. In 1999, thunderstorm winds caused $1Million in property damage in Jefferson City. Severe hail was a problem in the spring of 2006.

Less frequently, thunderstorms will spawn Tornadoes in the area. Cole County experienced eight tornadoes between 1950 and 2009 resulting in $2.8 million in property damage. There were no injuries or deaths from these tornadoes, but this is an ever present concern due to the frequency of thunderstorm activity and the potential for formation of tornadoes.

Severe Winter Weather can be expected in Cole County on a general average of every other year. The county has been included in three Presidential Disaster Declarations for severe winter weather since 2006. A winter storm in December 2007 caused widespread power outages leaving an estimated 25% of the county without power.

On the other end of the temperature spectrum, periods of Extreme Heat also commonly occur in the county, usually at least every other year. Drought is an ever present possibility; there were significant crop and livestock losses in the county during the last major drought in 2005-2006.

The very real issue of potential Dam Failure came to the forefront in the county in 2009 with the near failure of Renn’s Lake Dam in Jefferson City.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 46 2.5 POPULATION, HOUSING AND POVERTY A mapping of Cole County’s population (2010 Census) by block group clearly shows that the highest population density is in the northern part of the county (Figure 2.10).

Figure 2.10

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 47 The 2010 Census indicated an overall population increase in Cole County of 7% with an overall increase of 12% in housing units (Figure 2.11). The strongest growth was in Wardsville which saw over 50% increase in both population and housing.

Figure 2.11 Change in Population and Housing 2000-2010

Population Housing Units % % 2010 2000 2010 2000 Change Change Cole County (total)* 76,158 71,397 7% 32,324 28,915 12%

Cole County (unincorporated) 28,066 27,422 2% 11,449 10,215 12% Jefferson City 43,057 39,636 9% 18,842 16,987 11% Russellville 807 758 6% 360 346 4% St. Martins 1,140 1,023 11% 474 398 19% St. Thomas 263 287 -8% 100 107 -7% Taos 878 870 1% 340 315 8% Wardsville 1,506 976 54% 529 347 52% * Cole County (total) includes all incorporated jurisdictions, including those not participating in this plan and not included in this table.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 48 Figure 2.12

While the 2010 Census data indicates only a 1% population growth in Taos, the city has annexed extensive areas of unincorporated Cole County (Figure 3.24) since the Census data was collected. A mapping of the population change (by block group) between the two censuses, coupled with the current corporate boundaries, clearly shows that some of the strong population growth in unincorporated Cole County at the time of the 2010 Census is now within the corporate boundaries of Taos (Figure 2.12).

The map also shows the strong growth in and around Wardsville.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 49 Vulnerable Populations Some sectors of the population are more vulnerable in general to the threat of hazardous events. Children need the help and guidance of adults, especially in extraordinary circumstances, and this is also true for some older citizens. The 2010 Census showed 12% of the county’s population under the age of 10 and over 9 % as 65 years and older (Figure 2.13.)

Figure 2.13

Age Demographics - Cole County 16 14 12 10 8 6 Percent 4 2 0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census x

Those living in group quarters are especially vulnerable in that they may need to be evacuated. Some of the elderly are grouped in specific facilities; this is also true for the seriously ill in hospitals and those recovering from health emergencies in nursing facilities. These critical facilities are listed and mapped in Section 3.1 (Figures 3.4-3.5). In addition, there are students living in group quarters at Lincoln University in Jefferson City.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 50 The poor are also a vulnerable population. Poor housing conditions or lack of any housing, lack of reliable transportation and inadequate insurance can all contribute to heightening the impacts of a hazard worse for those living in poverty. Approximately 13.6% of the population in the planning area is below the poverty threshold, according to estimates from the American Community Survey 2010-2014 (Figure 2.14).

Figure 2.14

Poverty Status Over Last 12 Months - Cole County

Subject Number % Persons for whom poverty status is determined 71,835 Persons below poverty 9,784 13.6 Poverty ratio under 0.5 4,171 5.8 Poverty ratio in 0.5 to 0.99 5,613 7.8

Persons under 18 for whom poverty status is determined 17,445 Persons under 18 in poverty 3,463 19.9

Persons aged 18 to 64 for whom poverty status is determined 44,835 Persons aged 18 to 64 in poverty 5,754 12.8

Persons over 65 for whom poverty status is determined 9,555 Persons over 65 in poverty 567 5.9

Persons in families for whom poverty status is determined 57,858 Persons in families in poverty 6,274 10.8

Unrelated individuals for whom poverty status is determined 13,977 Unrelated persons in poverty 15 years and over 3,510 25.1

Source: American Community Survey, 2010-2014

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 51 2.6 EDUCATION Students are a vulnerable population as they are dependent on others for natural hazard information during the school day. A mitigation plan must take this into account. Often, this has been done by building schools out of floodplains and having safe areas within the school where the students can assemble in the event of a disaster. School buildings also have the potential to be built or reinforced to tornado safe room specifications and some school facilities may be used to assist with wider sheltering needs during or after a disaster.

Figure 2.15

The following four public school districts are located in the Planning Area: Cole County R-I, Blair Oaks R-II, Cole County R-V, and Jefferson City Public Schools (Figure 2.15). Ea ch district has an elected Superintendent and School Board along with several administrative staff. Combined, the school districts employ more than 800 teachers and educate more than 10,000 students in 25 schools.

Public school students in the very northwest corner of Cole County attend schools in the Jamestown C-I School District in neighboring Moniteau County.

A major residential institution of higher learning, Lincoln University, is located in Jefferson City.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 52

2.7 EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Cole County is within the designated Jefferson City, Mo Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. MSAs are geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for use by Federal statistical agencies in collecting, tabulating, and publishing Federal statistics. An MSA consists of a core urban area of 50,000 or more population, the county or counties containing the core urban area, and adjacent counties which have a high degree of social and economic integration with the urban core (as measured by commuting to work).

Jefferson City is the urban core for the MSA which includes Cole County and neighboring Callaway, Moniteau, and Osage Counties. The MSA designation is indicative of growth in Jefferson City area; prior to the year 2000, the core area’s population was below 50,000.

Due to the location of the state capital in Jefferson City, Cole County has jobs that are often more lucrative than those found in the surrounding counties. The county benefits from a highly educated and diversified workforce. Additionally, the workforce tends to be in stable, higher income industries such as government, education, and mid-management. The major employers are shown in Figure 2.16.

Figure 2.16 Major Employers in Cole County Employer Employees Employer Employees State of Missouri 14,208 Jefferson City Medical Group 564 Jefferson City Public Schools 1,556 WIPRO Infocrossing 305 Scholastic, Inc. 1,400 Missouri Farm Bureau 280 Capital Region Medical Center 1,398 CenturyLink 275 SSM Health - St. Mary's Hospital 1,070 McDonald's Restaurants 250 Central Bancompany 918 Modine Manufacturing 220 State Technical College of ABB, Inc. 653 Missouri 208 Walmart Supercenter (2 locations) 631 Command Web 175 City of Jefferson 580 Learfield Communications 165 Quaker Window Products 580 DeLong's, Inc. 156 Lincoln University 490 Lowe's 151 Unilever Home & Personal Care 480 Sonoco Plastics 150 Cole County 362 Hawthorn Bank 150 Gerbes Supermarket (2) 308 Ameren Missouri 150 Source: www.jcchamber.org/

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 53 Agriculture

Agriculture is an important part of the economy of the planning area. There are 176,306 acres in farmland in the county according to the 2012 Census of Agriculture from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); this is down from 180,840 acres in 2007 (Figure 2.17). Farmland comprises over 70.4% of the land area of the county. Of the total farmland, 67,524 acres are cropland and 57,570 of these acres were harvested in 2012.

Hay, soybeans, corn, and wheat are the major crops in the county; cattle and pigs are the main livestock. Other crops include grain sorghum, grapes, garden vegetables, nuts, fruit, native plants, trees, and shrubs. The total market value for all agricultural products (crops and livestock) sold in 2007 was $34,711,000.

Figure 2.17 Agricultural Overview - Cole County 2012 2007 Change Approx. land area (acres) 250,559 250,559 Land in farms (acres) 176,306 180,840 -2.5% Percentage in farms 70.4% 72.2% -2.5%

Number of farms 1,055 1,103 -4.4% Avg size of farm (acres) 167 164 1.8% Estimated market value-land & buildings $513,566,000 $435,750,000 17.9% Avg value per farm $486,793 $395,059 23.2% Avg value per acre $2,913 $2,410 20.9%

Total sales $38,372,000 $34,711,000 10.5% Average sales per farm $36,372 $31,470 15.6%

Source: USDA Census of Agriculture 2012

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 54 Unemployment Rates

The unemployment rate in Cole County is consistently lower than the average of the Mid- Missouri region, the state of Missouri and the national average unemployment (Figure 2.18).

Figure 2.18 Annual Unemployment Rate 1990-2013 12% Cole County 10%

8% MiD MO RPC Average 6% State of Missouri

Percent 4% 2% United States 0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Income The breakdown of household income and benefits for Cole County is shown in Figure 2.19.

Figure 2.19 Household Income and Benefits - Cole County

Income and Benefits # %

Total households 29,307 100.1 Less than $10,000 1,833 6.3 $10,000 to $14,999 1,414 4.8 $15,000 to $24,999 2,781 9.5 $25,000 to $34,999 3,309 11.3 $35,000 to $49,999 4,373 14.9 $50,000 to $74,999 6,180 21.1 $75,000 to $99,999 3,739 12.8 $100,000 to $149,999 3,728 12.7 $150,000 to $199,999 1,339 4.6 $200,000 or more 611 2.1 Median household income = $53,228 Source: American Community Survey, 2010-2014

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 55 2.8 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUTING PATTERNS Cole County has three major highways which intersect in Jefferson City. There is a sizeable commuting population within, and to and from, the planning area due to the location of the State Capital in Jefferson City and the location of the University of Missouri at Columbia in adjacent Boone County to the north. Figure 2.20 Roadways Cole County, like most of the United States, is heavily dependent upon the personal vehicle and roads. Roads are the dominant transportation arteries in Cole County, moving most goods and services that flow in and out of the county. The Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) takes care of all state and federal roads in the county; Cole County Public Works maintains roads in unincorporated areas and the various jurisdictions maintain their own roads.

The three major highways in Cole County (U.S. 54, U.S 50, and U.S. 63) all intersect near the center of Jefferson City, the state capital. U.S. 54 provides access to the Lake of the Ozarks, a major recreational and tourism area approximately 60 miles southwest of Jefferson City. U.S. 50 provides access to the State Fair in Sedalia approximately 75 miles to the west. U.S. 54 and U.S. 63 both provide access to Interstate 70, approximately 30 miles to the north. Interstate 70 connects to St. Louis in the east and Kansas City in the west and is the most used east-west artery in the state.

Many citizens from neighboring counties work and conduct business in Jefferson City. The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) cites the following 2005 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) in their 2030 Metropolitan Transportation Plan:

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 56  Missouri River Bridge Crossing (U.S. 54/ 63) – 43,253 AADT  U.S. 50 just west of the “tri-level” (U.S.50/54/63 interchange) – 37,880 AADT

Public Transportation OATS, Inc., a private not-for-profit corporation, was founded by a group of seniors in 1971 as transportation for older citizen. Its current mission is to “provide reliable transportation for transportation disadvantaged Missourians so they can live independently in their own communities.” OATS, Inc. serves a wide diversity of citizens in 87 Missouri counties. In Cole County, the organization provides transportation between Jefferson City and the communities of Centertown, Eugene, Meta, Russellville, St. Martin, Taos, and Wardsville. OATS predominantly serves the elderly and disabled, but will serve anyone needing transportation.

Public transportation is available within Jefferson City through the fixed-route city run bus system (JEFFTRAN) which provides service Monday through Friday. JEFFTRAN also provides a door-to-door paratransit service (Handi Wheels) for clients who qualify under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).

Railroads Passenger Rail Amtrak provides passenger service from Jefferson City to both Kansas City (and points westward) and St. Louis (and points eastward) via the Missouri River Runner. Two trains traveling in each direction stop daily at the Jefferson City Amtrak Station. The completion of a 9,000-foot rail siding extension just west of California, Missouri in November 2009 increased the on-time arrival percentage of the Missouri River Runner trains from 55-79% in recent years to over 90%, according to the Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT). With a better record of on-time arrivals, ridership has subsequently increased about 20%.

Rail Freight A large amount of freight travels by rail through Cole County. Union Pacific operates tracks through the northern part of the county. According to the Missouri Department of Transportation’s Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), 33 percent of all product movement in Missouri is conducted by rail. Kansas City and St. Louis are ranked as the 2nd and 3rd busiest rail hubs in the nation, according to the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC).

Air The Jefferson City Memorial Airport, operated by Jefferson City, is located across the Missouri River in Callaway County. A wide variety of military, state government, corporate, and general aviation aircraft operate out of the airport but there are no scheduled commercial airline flights. The nearest public passenger airport is the Columbia Regional Airport, located approximately twenty miles north of Jefferson City in neighboring Boone County. Lambert-St. Louis International Airport and Kansas City International Airport are both 2-3 hours drive from Jefferson City.

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 57

Commuting Patterns

The seat of state government in Jefferson City provides a wealth of employment possibilities both in government jobs and in sectors supporting and serving the various needs of the government and its employees. A high percentage of residents work with the county and a significant percentage of workers come from other places to work in the county.

The abundance of employment opportunities is reflected in commute times. Commute times for workers residing in Cole County are the lowest in the region served by the Mid-Missouri RPC and significantly lower than the state average (Figure 2.21). Only neighboring Boone County, home to the University of Missouri, has similarly low commute times.

Figure 2.21

Commute Times in Mid-Missouri Region 30 25 20 15

10 Minutes 5 0

Source: ACS 2009-2013 x

Section 2 Cole County/Jefferson City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan 58