View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach Pfau, Wade Donald National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan December 2006 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18829/ MPRA Paper No. 18829, posted 06. December 2009 / 06:38 This article was published as: Pfau, W. D., “Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach,” The Korean Economic Review. Vol. 22, No. 2 (Winter 2006), p. 233-247. “Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach” by Wade D. Pfau National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan 162-8677 Phone: 81-90-9300-2243 Email:
[email protected] Abstract Demographic and economic characteristics have been shown to provide important predictive power for determining a country’s success in the Olympic Games. This paper extends such research, providing a set of predictions for the gold medals and total medals each country will win at the 2006 Winter Olympics. We expected Germany to win the most medals, followed by the United States, Norway, Italy, Austria, and Canada. For total medals, the overall correlation between the predictions and the actual results was 0.934. While Germany and the United States did finish in the top two places, there were some surprises as Canada, Austria, and Russia performed better than expected, while Norway and Italy did not live up to expectations.