Israel and Middle East News Update

Wednesday, August 18

Headlines: ● Jerusalem Wildfires Brought under Control ● Meeting to Approve Rare Palestinian Construction Delayed ● PM: Will Choose Time and Place to Respond to Rocket Fire ● Report: Hamas Leader Meets with Taliban ● Syrian Media Reports Possible Israeli Strike near the Border ● UN Nuclear Watchdog: Iran Producing More Uranium Metal ● Turkey Welcomes ‘Positive Messages’ from Taliban ● Signs Deal with Jordan for Agricultural Imports

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: ‘‘Things Look Different from the Top’’ - By Yossi Yehoshua

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Lessons from Afghanistan’’ - By Amos Gilad

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts August 18, 2021 I24 News Jerusalem Wildfires Brought under Control Wildfires that have ravaged woodland in the hills west of Jerusalem since noon on Sunday have finally been brought under control, the Israeli fire service said. Hundreds of families had been evacuated from 10 villages west of the city over the three days. The firefighters said there were no casualties, but the blazes burned 2,500 hectares of forest. Palestinian firefighters joined their Israeli counterparts in a gesture hailed by Defense Minister who used Twitter to send his thanks in Arabic. "I thank Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas for the initiative to send firefighters to help Israel to save human lives and our common interests," Gantz tweeted. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett overflew the affected area by helicopter, and thanked the firefighters "for their dedication and professionalism." Around 1,500 firemen battled the flames on the ground and 20 specialized aircraft flew more than 400 sorties to drop water and fire retardant.

Times of Israel Meeting to Approve Rare Palestinian Construction Delayed Despite an announcement last week of rare plans to approve more than 800 housing units in Palestinian towns, a meeting to finalize the move has been delayed to an unknown date. The Defense Ministry’s Civil Administration — which regulates West Bank construction in areas where Israel has civilian control — was also set to discuss advancing 2,200 units in settlements. The Civil Administration declined to comment on specifics. It was unclear when either of the construction plans — in Israeli settlements or Palestinian towns — would be authorized. But the proposal to approve Palestinian construction had ignited sharp opposition among Prime Minister Bennett’s constituency on the Israeli settler right. Israel rarely approves Palestinian construction in Area C. Most Palestinian towns in the zone are unrecognized. Between 2016 and 2018, Israel rejected around 98% of Palestinian applications for permits, according to Defense Ministry figures.

Ynet News PM: Will Choose Time and Place to Respond to Rocket Fire A day after rocket fire from the resumed, Prime Minister Bennett warned on that Israel will respond at a time of its choosing. "We will operate at a time, place and conditions that suit us — and nobody else," he said while visiting IDF Gaza Divison soldiers alongside Defense Minister Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi. Rockets were launched from the Palestinian enclave into southern Israel, setting off air raid sirens in the city of Sderot as well as the border communities of Avivim, Nir Am and Erez. The attack ended three months of relative calm along the Gaza border following an 11-day conflict between Hamas and Israel in May. The military confirmed that one rocket that was launched from Gaza was intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system. Israel did not retaliate for the attack. Dig Deeper ‘‘TV: Israel Not Responding to Gaza Rocket Due to Progress in Talks with Hamas’’ (Times of Israel) 2 Israel Hayom Report: Hamas Leader Meets with Taliban Top Hamas officials met with Taliban leaders several weeks ago to congratulate the radicals who were then rolling through Afghanistan, according to Palestinian media outlets affiliated with Hamas that released photos of the meeting this week. Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Arouri met with Taliban head Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and other senior officials. According to Palestinian sources privy to the matter, the meeting took place in the Qatari capital of Doha shorty after Operation Guardian of the Walls in May. In the meeting, Baradar reportedly praised Hamas and its leaders "for their steadfast opposition to the Zionist enemy and the long-awaited victory." A senior Hamas official also said that, at the time, Hamas kept the meeting secret, but decided to confirm it after Taliban took over Kabul. Senior Hamas official Mousa Mohammed Abu Marzook even sent Baradar an official letter, in which he congratulated the radicals on seizing the Afghani capital and vowed continued support from Hamas. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel Allows 10 Trucks Carrying Tires, Engines into Gaza Strip’’ (I24 News)

Jerusalem Post Syrian Media Reports Possible Israeli Strike near the Border Explosions were heard in Quneitra, Syria, Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported. Syrian media claimed Israel was behind the explosions. Arab news agencies report that an Israeli missile attack targeted the Qir al-Nafl area, west of the town of Hader in the northern countryside of Quneitra. Kan reported that there were two missiles launched toward the target. An IDF spokesperson told Russian media that Israel attacked an army post and no soldiers were killed, Kan reported. According to the Palestinian Ma'an news agency, reports claim that one of the targets is a post, and another belongs to Iran. The area near where UN peacekeepers maintain a longstanding ceasefire between Israel and Syria has a strong presence of Iranian-backed militias led by the Lebanese Hezbollah group. Israel has over the last two years dramatically expanded airstrikes on suspected Iranian targets in Syria to repel what it sees as a stealthy military encroachment by its regional arch-enemy.

Associated Press UN Nuclear Watchdog: Iran Producing More Uranium Metal Iran continues to produce uranium metal, which can be used in the production of a nuclear bomb, the United Nation’s atomic watchdog confirmed, in a move that further complicates the possibility of reviving a landmark 2015 deal with world powers on the Iranian nuclear program. In a report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna to member nations, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that his inspectors had confirmed that Iran had now produced 200 grams of uranium metal enriched up to 20%. Grossi had previously reported in February that his inspectors had confirmed that a small amount of uranium metal, 3.6 grams, had been produced at Iran’s Isfahan plant. The production of uranium metal is prohibited by the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, which promises Iran economic incentives in exchange for limits on its nuclear program, and is meant to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel Hopes Biden Will Take Harder Line on Iran after Afghan Withdrawal’’ (Al-Monitor)

3 Al-Monitor Turkey Welcomes ‘Positive Messages’ from Taliban Turkey welcomed the “positive messages” that have come from the Taliban, saying that it is now waiting to see them translated into action. “I would like to acknowledge that the messages that come from the Taliban to the foreigners, to diplomatic missions, and to its people have been positive so far. Hopefully, they’d be translated into action,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu said at a joint press conference with his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Saffadi in Amman. Cavusoglu’s remarks came as the Taliban announced a "general amnesty" for all government officials and urged them to return to work. Cavusoglu remained vague on whether Ankara was still upholding its offer of maintaining the security of the strategic Hamid Karzai airport in Kabul after the withdrawal of NATO troops. Two security forces who said that the Turkish offer of the airport has now been dropped after the Taliban took control of the Afghan capital and formed a transitional government. The sources stated that Turkey is ready to provide “security and technical support” if the Taliban requests it. Dig Deeper ‘‘With US Credibility Gashed by Kabul Fiasco, Israel May Be Bruised by Association’’ (Times of Israel)

I24 News Israel Signs Deal with Jordan for Agricultural Imports Israel and Jordan signed a deal to prioritize agricultural imports from the Jewish state's eastern neighbor during the upcoming shmita (sabbath year) that starts in September. The agreement was inked during a meeting at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Israeli Agriculture Minister Oded Forer and his Jordanian counterpart Rasan al-Majali. The Israeli and Jordanian ambassadors were in attendance. They agreed that Israel would import Jordanian produce during the biblical sabbatical year that takes place every seven years of the agricultural cycle. Israeli farmers must leave their land fallow and cease all agricultural activity for the year in order to be certified kosher. Purchasing agricultural produce from Arab neighbors is one solution for obtaining fruits and vegetables to feed Israel's observant Jewish population. The ministers also discussed boosting agricultural cooperation between the two countries. Ties between Israel and Jordan have been warming since Israel's new government was sworn in. The two countries last month agreed to increase Jordan's export potential to the West Bank from about $160m a year up to $700m annually. Israel also agreed to sell an additional 50m cubic meters of water to Jordan this year. Dig Deeper ‘‘Protesting Agriculture Reform, Israeli Farmers Attempt to Breach Lebanon Border’’ (Times of Israel)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 18, 2021 Things Look Different from the Top By Yossi Yehoshua ● Prime Minister Naftali Bennett paid a scheduled visit to the IDF yesterday, together with Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi. After being briefed on the situation on the Gaza border Bennett tried to explain why he hadn’t ordered the military to respond to the rocket attack on Sderot Monday. “We, and we alone will choose the time and place that are best for us to respond,” the new Prime Minister Bennett said. It is easy to imagine just what Opposition Leader Naftali Bennett would have had to say if a different prime minister had done the same thing and not responded to a rocket attack closer to the event. Monday’s rocket fire was particularly serious because it was carried out in broad daylight and was aimed at the largest Israeli community in the Gaza border region. To Israel, it doesn’t matter whether the rocket was fired in response to clash between undercover IDF troops and armed Palestinians in Jenin that left four Palestinians dead or whether it was related to delays in transferring Qatari money to the Gaza Strip. ● The rocket was fired with lethal intent. The person who fired the rocket is not a member of Hamas—he was arrested by Hamas—but Hamas is the responsible party as far as Israel is concerned. The person who fired the rocket did not choose any other type of attack like an incendiary or explosive balloon. He did not fire a mortar at the border fence or at a military target. Bennett has set a very high price for incendiary balloon attacks from Gaza: The IAF normally responds to attacks of that type by attacking Hamas targets. True, these are not usually high-quality targets but the very fact that military strikes are carried out is intended to set a high price tag. To date, Bennett has been successful on this front and the IAF attacks have not dragged us into an escalation and the incendiary balloon terrorism is relatively tolerable. Monday, however, he chose not to respond. Now, with the weight of responsibility on his shoulders, he’s internalized just how true the old phrase “things look different from the top” really can be. ● The problem is that this incident comes on the heels of the latest incident on the northern border in which the IDF did not retaliate for 20 Hizbullah rockets that were fired at Mt. Dov. In this neighborhood, the Middle East, everyone is always watching— especially if you are a new prime minister—and trying to test you. A show of weakness [by failing to respond to cross-border attacks] could lead to war if you are seen to lose your power of deterrence. Anybody looking for a settlement needs to do so from a position of strength. Otherwise, he will be taken advantage of. Bennett hinted [that he is looking for] an extended period of calm when he said “our goal is to give long-term security to residents of the South and of the Gaza Belt region.” Currently, negotiations over the transfer of Qatari funds are not making progress, mainly because Israel does not want to give the money directly to Hamas agents. The challenge is to find a solution that would allow humanitarian aid to reach Gaza as soon as possible in order to prevent a further breakdown that could lead to a military escalation.

5 ● At the moment there is no solution either to the problem of Israel’s POWs and MIAs [held in Gaza]. Hawkish elements in Hamas have indicated that if no progress is made there will be an escalation. In contrast to the northern theater, Hamas in Gaza is a much more convenient adversary, and this is an opportunity to act strongly against that organization’s violations (not to initiate fighting), to exact a price and yes, to stand by your word. At the same time, a prime minister who spends most of his time dealing with the coronavirus pandemic must make sure that the IDF is prepared for war with Hizbullah. He must [ensure the army is well-equipped] with anti-missile and smart bomb equipment, push forward with building the physical barrier that currently is breached and speed up the project of laser-based anti-missiles technology. In addition, he must nudge the Internal Security Ministry to push forward with plans to create a national guard that might respond to potential rioting by Israeli Arabs during a clash [with foreign forces].

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 18, 2021 Lessons from Afghanistan By Amos Gilad ● The hasty United States-NATO retreat from Afghanistan will leave a deep impression on the international stage for a long time—and Israel can derive a lesson from this immediately. The first lesson is that radical Islam, represented by al-Qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban is a dangerous enemy that must be defeated before it becomes a threat. Israel’s security establishment can pat itself on the back for the way it has dealt with the threat of this type of terrorism in Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and for creating a range of security collaborations with Sunni Arab states. The threat of terrorism by extreme actors in most Arab countries is under control, and in touchy areas like Sinai a developing terror threat has been blocked. The price—which is arguable—is that Israel is sometimes accused of collaborating with non-democratic Arab regimes. ● The choice, then, is not between democracy that is bedecked with personal freedom and human rights—we must recognize and accept the fact that no democracies are going to emerge in the Middle East in the coming decades for a variety of reasons. Israel must continue, as it has been doing, collaborating with regimes that can ensure regional stability in the Middle East and improved ability to deal with the Iranian challenge as its main threat. In this context Israel did well by changing the policy of the previous government, which amounted to harming Jordan in a range of sensitive areas. The Hashemite Kingdom has no better strategic asset than Israeli security. Same for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Even if normalization does not expand beyond the Abraham Accords, it is essential that we continue to nurture and develop a wide range of security collaborations. The second insight here is that Israel has its very own Afghanistan. ● At the beginning of the 1980s, Israel allied itself with Christian forces in Lebanon on the illusion—based on absolutely no intelligence or facts on the ground— that this course of action, highlighted by the occupation of Beirut, would lead to a strong, stable Lebanon that would then follow Egypt’s example and sign a peace treaty with Israel. Israel got bogged down in the Lebanese mud for two decades, extracted itself after failing to accomplish any of its diplomatic illusions, and ultimately withdrew unilaterally under the cover of darkness. Looking back [the withdrawal from Lebanon] appears problematic both because of its impact on Israel’s perceived imagine and because of the possible correlation to the eruption of the . ● Therefore, there is a clear lesson that has recurred here: don’t join forces with failed actors since the evidence bears out that alliances with them will be as rickety as buildings that are built on a sand foundation. When making decisions in the future, Israel would do well to remember the Lebanon/Afghanistan/Vietnam model, all of which share a common denominator: They all rested on faulty assumptions that could easily have been discerned had they been adjudicated by professional criteria ahead of time. The problem with President Biden‘s decision is that America’s recognition of failure was too late in coming.

7 ● The problem was exacerbated by a failed withdrawal that instead of being well planned and organized turned into, as we have seen in media reports, into a frantic retreat. That sends a terrible message about American strength to America’s enemies and adversaries. Similarly, it is important to prepare for the possibility that Iran may reach the conclusion that it can continue down the path of developing a military/nuclear option with reduced fears of America’s ability to respond or impose its will. Presumably, Iran will not reduce its effort to build up its range of options for violence against Israel and the Arab world, and it is likely that there is basically no chance that a [renewed JCPOA] agreement will include provisions on this topic. ● With or without a deal, Iran will likely strengthen its resolve to continue on the path towards becoming a regional power—and it’s belligerence in a range of military spheres could well increase. An additional question that is related to the United States’ international standing and its real ability two impose its leadership on the democratic world versus adversaries like China and Russia. Similarly, it would appear likely that the impact of the Taliban‘s takeover will not be immediate, although if the regime there becomes [too] extreme it will have an impact on other failed states like Pakistan, which has 100 nuclear warheads. Therefore, there are consequences that we are likely to have to deal with eventually. The bottom line is that now more than ever Israel must continue to nurture and develop its strategic military power while giving top priority to strategic ties with Arab states that are characterized by having stable regimes.

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