WINTER 2001 Observer As his tenure begins, President George W. Bush should learn from the mistakes of the previous administration and a good place to start is Asia, recommends journalist Tom Plate. “Always remember that if you ask the wrong set of questions, you’re virtually certain to get the wrong set of answers,” Plate advised, in Asian Options and the a keynote speech delivered at the Asia Pacific New U.S. Administration Executive Forum sponsored by the East-West Center in in January. “The most important question about China is not so much the possibility of aggression from military buildup but the possibility of implosion from festering internal problems,” he said. “The most important Inside: question about is not whether it should expand its military role in Asia to increase security but how it Columnist Tom Plate being interviewed live before giving Asia’s Aging Population can expand its economy to enhance Asian economic his keynote address at the Asia Pacific Executive Forum. Tied to Slower stability, not to mention its own. Economic Growth “Remember: In the last few years, the most ■ Don’t let all your top people travel to Europe Page 2 traumatic event for Asia was not the North Korean before anyone has gone to Asia. While Clinton’s first missile test, as much as it scared the Japanese secretary of state, Warren Christopher, indicated to Asia Pacific: especially, but the Asian financial crisis, which shook Plate that he would balance the time he spent in Struggling with everyone in the region to their roots.” Europe and the Middle East with attention to Asia, Globalization Plate, a former editorial page editor of The Los the reality was that Christopher focused on the Middle Page 3 Angeles Times, is an internationally syndicated East, the journalist said. columnist who focuses on America’s relationship with ■ Don’t think a sensible U.S.-Asia foreign policy can Reforms in the Asia Pacific region. His columns appear in The be achieved without simultaneously honoring the Philippines Unlikely Straits Times of , Korea Herald, South China historic roles of both China and Japan. Page 5 Morning Post in , and Seattle Times. He has While Clinton’s diplomacy was at times too a joint appointment in the School of Public Policy and brusque toward the Japanese, the way to redress that Pacific Island Leaders College of Letters and Science at the University of problem is not to be brusque toward the Chinese, Gather in Hawaii California at . Plate said. “It’s rather to construct a subtle diplomacy Page 7 In his speech, he offered the following of respect for both great Asian powers, to articulate, in recommendations to the Bush administration: a clear, consistent but low-key way our basic regional ■ Don’t waste the first year or so knocking China, as interests in Asia, and to work as closely as possible Clinton did. “Don’t reinvent the human-rights wheel with both major powers to maintain stability and because it isn’t going to get you rolling anywhere,” he said. prosperity.” That approach will only waste time and taxpayer ■ An increase in military arms and troops money, irritate the Chinese, depress the rest of Asia, sometimes can result in less rather than more security. and embarrass U.S. allies, he said. It is better to press Plate noted that Colin Powell, a former chairman American ethical concerns in a way that doesn’t look of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is Secretary of State and like grandstanding to the Chinese. James Kelly, a former Navy captain, will be Assistant “China will open up gradually when it is ready, in Secretary of State for Asia. “This tough team its own way, unless there is a revolution, which you undoubtedly will pack some kind of firepower, but probably don’t want.” continued on page 2 2

Asian Options and the New U.S. Administration continued from page 1 one hopes that it won’t become punch drunk with the Plate concluded with a brief discussion of three idea of military power itself. Perhaps that won’t happen Asian political leaders, China’s Deng Xiao-ping, with sensible people like Colin Powell and Jim Kelly in Singapore’s and ’s Kim Dae key positions. But it’s often forgotten, especially by Jung and tied this to implications for U.S. foreign policy. civilians, that rising levels of arms can trigger hostile In his discussion of Deng’s legacy, he suggested, buildups that render everyone less well off than before.” “The more we relate to China in a manner that The best example of this would be an American- appeals to their economic and security interests, the led defensive missile system that would cost a lot of less motivated they will be to magnify other money and not raise anyone’s level of security, Plate differences with the West out of proportion.” argued. “It might even lower it as powers like China The implication from the successes of Lee are counter by raising the bid with a new offensive missile “don’t make —it’s the American way or it’s the buildup. An irony of military emphasis is that it can highway — the abrasive tone” of U.S. foreign policy. be more a sign of weakness — for example, of a pushy, Finally, Plate said, “Bush’s foreign policy will have preachy diplomacy — than true strength — a quiet, no moral weight if it does not offer an architecture for self-confident diplomacy.” peace. Peace is the necessary condition of prosperity ■ More important than keeping the U.S. military which is the necessary condition of security. The The East-West mighty is keeping the U.S. dollar mighty. peace/prosperity/security formula can only be achieved Center Observer National security involves more than simply who through an enlightened diplomacy. No one in recent is a quarterly newsletter can field the largest and best armed forces and the times in Asia has set a better example of that than Kim published by the biggest missiles, Plate said. Dae Jung. Center for Cultural and “The most important foreign policy response to “The new administration owes this great man the Technical Interchange North Korea is not to gin up a new defensive missile benefit of the doubt and, therefore, of its support as he Betwen East and West, Inc., program by the year 2005 —probably won’t work, seeks to cap his five-year term with a legendary legacy East-West Center, certainly will cost too much,” he said, “but aggressively of enduring peace and prosperity on the peninsula.” 1601 East-West Road, to help create conditions on the peninsula that (The Asia Pacific Executive Forum was sponsored by Honolulu, HI 96848-1601. diminish the paranoid isolation of the Democratic the East-West Center in partnership with Frost & The East-West Center People’s Republic of North Korea and its psychotic Sullivan.) is a public non-profit level of armaments.” institution established in 1960 to foster mutual understanding and cooperation among the governments and Aging Population Tied to Shrinking peoples of the Asia Pacific region, including the United States. Work Force, Slower Economic Growth Volume 5, Number 1 Winter 2001 Asia’s rapidly aging population will ultimately rates. In addition, foreign investment will flow to mean slower economic growth in the region, warns countries with more abundant work forces, Mason Charles E. Morrison, President Andrew Mason, senior fellow at the East-West Center predicts. Karen Knudsen, Director and a specialist on population change and economic At the same time, there will be increasing pressure Office of External Affairs Adevelopment. Already the region’s governments are on Asian governments to devise programs to meet the For information, contact: grappling with policies directed at the needs of the needs of its older population. This was a problem in elderly, including pension issues and health care reform. the United States in the 1970s, when the elderly had The East-West Center “With rapid growth in the number of elderly the higher rates of poverty and lower consumption than 1601 East-West Road prospect of a growing and impoverished class of children and working-age adults. Increases in Social Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 seniors looms large,” Mason says. Security benefits eliminated these disparities. Telephone: 808-944-7111 He presented his analysis, based on on-going “But the problem everybody worries about,” Fax: 808-944-7376 EWC studies of the region, at recent Center briefings Mason says, “is that many programs for the elderly E-mail: and conferences. Declining birth rates and longer life undermine economic growth. Pension programs often EastWestCenter.org expectancies in Japan are already leading to a decline encourage early retirement, accelerating the decline in in the working-age population and an erosion in the the work force. Some pension programs also World Wide Web: tax base. South Korea, China, and other Asian undermine saving incentives, reducing investment http://www.EastWestCenter.org countries will soon begin to experience similar trends. available for new industries and technology.” Slower Editor: Susan Yim An aging population brings with it a host of growth will limit the capacity of governments to meet Design: Kennedy & Preiss challenges, including labor shortages, lower rates of the needs of a growing aging population. saving and investment, and substantially higher tax continued on page 5 3

A new administration in Washington takes office at a time when the Asia Pacific region is struggling with an epidemic of serious domestic difficulties, observes East-West Center President Charles E. AMorrison. These difficulties extend across what Australians have called an “arc of crisis” from Indonesia to Fiji and include Northeast Asia, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines. Morrison presented a regional snapshot of domestic and international relations and economic Asia affairs at the Asia Pacific Executive Forum in January. He noted that he could not remember a time, in 35 years following events in Asia, when so many leaders Pacific: were wrestling with internal challenges so widely spread around the region. Struggling with the This political weakness, he suggested, is due Pressures of Globalization to a combination of political Charles Morrison presented a regional snapshot of systems not fully consolidated and pressures associated domestic and international relations and economic affairs with globalization. “Globalization in its broadest sense at the Asia Pacific Executive Forum. involves values, economic pressure, people movements, a lot of things that affect society and create very Internationally, the new administration will have difficult political challenges that would be difficult for to resolve the issue of arms sales to Taiwan. “It will be any government,” Morrison said. a significant test of how they manage that very These pressures also occurred in the United complicated relationship between Taiwan and China,” States, but because America is in the forefront of Morrison said. globalization, the challenges happened over a longer Economically, he anticipates the Bush administration period of time, he said. “Many Asian countries are will push for free trade and de-escalate some of the dealing with globalization challenges that suddenly labor and environmental concerns that have been confront them in a very quick and significant way.” connected to trade in recent years. This will probably In countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and be welcomed in much of the region, he said. even Thailand, that are historically long-established Following Morrison’s presentation, Vinod and have a good deal of homogeneity, a sense of Aggarwal addressed “Shifting Trading Arrangements in nationhood provides a certain amount of strength. Asia Pacific.” Aggarwal is director and professor at the But in countries where political systems are quite new, Berkeley APEC Study Center, University of California they’re not that legitimate, he said. In South Asia, at Berkeley, and managing director of the Nonmarket Southeast Asia, and Pacific Islands states, countries Strategy Group for Frost & Sullivan. have been put together generally during a colonial era. He discussed trends with respect to trading “Often in the early independence period, they arrangements in the region and possible scenarios and inherited political systems from the colonial powers,” strategic relationships for the near future. Bilateralism Morrison said. “These frequently involved a small will undermine both the effort to have regionalism as political elite. They didn’t have strong roots within the well as trans-regionalism, he argued. society and many of those systems disappeared fairly “What we’re going to get is a large number of quickly.” bilateral agreements that lead to trade diversions, But throughout the region, political systems are undermine the core of the international trade system,” becoming more open, accountable, and adjusting to he warned. “I think it will undermine APEC. It will pressures of globalization, he added. “New values are undermine the existing regions like ASEAN. coming in that mean often much more to the elite in “This is what it looked like in the 1930s. The the capital cities than in the countryside, and it’s not Germans going out and making bilateral agreements going to be a smooth and easy process. This is the and everybody else making bilateral agreements. It was changing dynamic that Washington has to take into not a happy world where they all got together to use account.” bilateralism as a building block for regionalism or trans-regionalism.” 4

News in Brief

Alumni Honor EWC Curator Jeannette “Benji” Bennington is the recipient of the Former Distinguished Service Award of the Hawaii chapter of the EWC President East-West Center Association (EWCA), the EWC alumni Michel organization. The award is based on outstanding service Oksenberg Dies to the Center, the EWCA, and the Hawaii community. Michel Oksenberg, Bennington, who joined the Center in 1962, is former president of the currently curator of the EWC Exhibition Series. She East-West Center, died has designed and implemented more than 175 of cancer in California exhibitions and related activities involving more than on February 22. He 750,000 participants, in venues from Honolulu to served as EWC president Jeannette “Benji” Chicago, Bali to Australia, and Papua New Guinea. from 1992-95, and had Bennington been a senior fellow at East-West Wire Debuts the Asia/Pacific Research Michel Oksenberg In January, the East-West Center introduced the Center at Stanford East-West Wire to provide journalists with digests of University, where he also Supporting news-worthy conferences and seminar presentations and was a professor of political science. the Center analysis of current issues via e-mail. “I was deeply saddened to learn of Mike’s passing,” said Charles E. Morrison, EWC RECENT GRANTS Susan Kreifels, special assistant to President AND CONTRACTS Charles E. Morrison, developed and coordinates the president. “He was a tremendous asset in U.S.- wire. Media requests for further information and Asia Pacific relations. As a brilliant scholar and Research/ interviews can also be made through the wire. committed teacher, he trained an entire Economics For more information about the East-West Wire, generation of younger China scholars. He was a powerful force in intellectual and policy issues in $200,000 contact her at [email protected] or (808)944-7176. shaping thinking about the implications of Ford Foundation China’s role in the international system.” Oksenberg, who was the author of numerous Pacific Islands publications, was a specialist on contemporary Development Japan Gives EWC China, Asia-Pacific affairs, American foreign $357,000 policy in the region, and Sino-American relations. Government of Japan $357,000 for PIDP Education Asian Diplomats on The East-West Center received a $357,000 Stability in Philippines, Economy $56,045 contribution from the government of Japan in its State of Hawaii continuing support of the Center’s Pacific Islands Rolando S. Gregoria, Philippine consul general in Department Development Program. Hawaii, predicted his country “was not over the of Education TMinoru Shibuya, consul general of Japan in hump” after the ousting of President Joseph Estrada, Hawaii, presented the contribution at an evening but said the Filipino people “by and large support” $140,000 reception for participants of the Pacific Islands President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Korea Development Conference of Leaders on January 31. The reception Gregoria made those comments at a January Institute was sponsored by the Bank of Hawaii. luncheon program in Hawaii, less than a week after $71,071 “The government of Japan has always supported Arroyo was sworn into office. He and consuls general Korea Foundation the East-West Center and the PIDP activities for their from Japan, South Korea, and Australia spoke at the worthwhile causes,” Shibuya said. “This contribution event, hosted by the East-West Center, Friends of the External Affairs expresses the strong commitment of the Japanese East-West Center, Pacific and Asian Affairs Council, Government to the sustainable development of the and Consular Corps of Hawaii. $38,740 countries and the improvement of the people’s well- Other diplomats forecast increases in tourism EWC Foundation/ being in the Pacific region.” from their countries. However, Japanese Consul The Hawaii Since 1978, Japan has provided $3.9 million to the General Minoru Shibuya warned a slowdown in the Pacific Rim Society Center, primarily to assist PIDP in meeting research and U.S. economy would affect the economic climate in training needs of the peoples of the Pacific Islands region. Asia. Gabriel Oh, vice consul general for South Korea, Federated States of said there is concern in his country about a second Micronesia President, economic crisis fueled by high oil prices, a slowing Leo A. Falcam, accepts U.S. economy, a slowdown in the semiconductor Japan’s contribution industry, and drops in the Korean stock market and from Minoru Shibuya, currency. consul general of Japan In his remarks, Peter Woolcott, consul general for in Hawaii, while Australia, said his main job is representing his country’s George Ariyoshi, chair- interests with the Commander in Chief of the Pacific. man of the EWC Board “We have to get CINCPAC on our side” before of Governors, looks on. Australia approaches Washington on issues, he said. 5

While “people power” in the Philippines forced a Philippines since its independence. An economist, she change in leadership, specialists at the East-West Center received her Ph.D. in economics from Georgetown do not expect President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to University. EWC Senior Fellow Peter Xenos served on press for social reforms badly needed in the country. her thesis committee at the University of the W“There is little evidence to suggest that the new Philippines where she earned her master’s degree in president will be empathetic toward the poor majority economics. in the Philippines,” says Gerard Finin, an EWC senior “She came into politics from academics, “ Xenos fellow. “As a result, the illusion of mass Filipino says. “So, she lacks some of the networks and cronies ‘people with whom to work.” But the new president is power’ perceived as competent, politically moderate, and has Philippines: Wide-Ranging bringing not been associated with the corruption that was the social change undoing of Estrada, he says. will instead Xenos also notes Arroyo is remarkably popular Reforms Are Unlikely maintain the with the general public, having led the roster of system that senatorial candidates, who are elected nationally, in the has for generations produced great wealth for a few previous election. but abject poverty and inequality for many.” However, he agrees that the chances for wide- During the administration of Joseph Estrada, the ranging changes are minimal. “Any reform-minded economy took a nose-dive, investor confidence was president will have to deal with the fact that the severely shaken, and poverty and other social indicators Philippine political and economic elites are not really declined to low levels. As a result, Arroyo, who was in favor of reforms,” he says. “They have too much at sworn into office in January after Estrada was ousted, stake.” faces tough social, economic, and political challenges. Despite the political upheaval, the East-West Reinvigorating an anemic economy is an Center continues to work in substantial ways in the immediate challenge, Finin says. “A second major Philippines, Xenos says, including with environmental challenge involves re-establishing the supremacy of agencies, with agencies doing population and other civilian rule in light of the role that the military and social policies and economic planning. national police played in Estrada’s ouster,” he adds. Both Xenos and Finin recommend the United “Similarly, a greater degree of separation between States continue to be supportive of democratic church and state is important, even though the church processes in the Philippines but avoid direct or high- played a constructive role in the transition from profile involvement in what are essentially internal Estrada to Arroyo.” political issues. “It is much healthier for U.S.- A daughter of a former president, Arroyo comes Philippine bilateral relations if the United States from the elite that has dominated politics in the remains in the background,” Finin says.

Aging Population Tied to Shrinking Work Force continued from page 2 Already traditional family support systems, mandated that workers save as much as 40 percent of much more important in Asia than in the West, are their wages. It facilitates a high rate of saving and beginning to erode. In Japan and South Korea, half of investment and provides for old age of long-term the elderly live with their children compared to 80 participants in the program. But the problem, he percent a few decades ago, Mason says. notes, is that during start-up such programs do nothing Asia has enjoyed one important advantage in to improve living standards among those who are near facing the challenge of aging: high rates of saving. In the end of their working years or already retired. the United States, most elderly have little or no savings He also cautions that public pension policies can be on which to depend. Asians appeared to be much successful only if governments are sufficiently efficient better prepared than their American counterparts until and recognize long-term commitments. Reliable the region’s recent economic troubles began. “The retirement programs require complex administration, recent financial crisis has destroyed the financial dependable financial systems, adequate government resources of many,” he says. regulations, and low levels of corruption. As a result, many Asian governments are Some of the more advanced countries in Asia have considering proposals to expand public pension public and financial institutions that can cope with the programs. Some are based on pay-as-you-go principles, major challenges that will accompany a rapidly aging like the Social Security system in the United States. population. “But other Asian countries are experiencing Other countries are considering compulsory savings population aging at a much lower level of development,” programs similar to those in Singapore and Malaysia. Mason says. “It is uncertain that countries like However, Mason cites merits and problems in the Indonesia will have the political and financial Singapore approach, in which the government has institutions in place to handle retirement programs.” 6

Publications in Review

The Publications Office now sends e-mail announcements of new publications to interested readers. If you would like to receive such announcements, please send a message to [email protected] with the word “subscribe” in the Subject field. Please include your name, title, organization name, and e-mail address. International Production Networks in Asia: Rivalry or They have created cross-border production networks Riches? edited by Michael Borrus, Dieter Ernst, and — led by multinational corporations that span the Stephan Haggard. Routledge Advances in Asia-Pacific entire value-chain in a number of industries. This Business, 2000. London: Routledge. xx, 267 pp. book addresses the changing nature of high-tech The economic crisis of 1997 called East Asia’s industries in Asia, particularly in the electronics sector, economic miracle into question and generated wide- where these networks are increasingly designed to spread criticism of the region’s developmental models. foster and to exploit the region’s highly heterogeneous However, the crisis did little to alter the growing technology, skills, and know-how. economic integration of the region, which is being Cloth, $90.00. Distributed by Routledge, forged through American, Japanese and Chinese firms. (800)634-7064 / fax (800)248-4724.

Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic social security reform. It focuses on intergenerational Transfers Between Generations, edited by Andrew features — the influence on demographic behavior, Mason and Georges Tapinos. International Studies in the distribution of income, and the accumulation of Demography, 2000. New York: Oxford University wealth. Studies consider the role of the state as a Press. xvi, 408 pp. provider of economic security for the elderly, drawing This book is a collection of papers by leading on international experience to discuss many of the scholars whose research concerns economic transfers issues that must be confronted if efforts to reform between generations. The issues addressed have great public pension programs are to be successful. relevance to demographic issues, particularly the Cloth, $85.00. Distributed by Oxford University determination of fertility; to economic issues, including Press, (800)455-9714 / fax (919)677-1303. equity and growth; and to public policy, especially

How Blaming ‘Slash and Burn’ Farmers Is Deforesting biodiversity, and reduction in carbon storage. In fact, Mainland Southeast Asia, by Jefferson M. Fox. shifting cultivation may be ecologically appropriate, AsiaPacific Issues, No. 47. December 2000. 8 pp. culturally suitable, and under certain circumstances For decades, international lenders, agencies, and the best means for preserving biodiversity in the foundations as well as national and local governments region. The real threat to these tropical forests is posed have spent millions of dollars trying to “modernize” by the steady advance of large-scale permanent and the traditional practices of farmers in many commercial agriculture. mountainous areas of Southeast Asia. But a new look Printed hard copy available for $2.50 plus at how forests fare under shifting cultivation (known shipping/handling from the East-West Center, pejoratively as “slash and burn”) clearly demonstrates [email protected]. that efforts to eliminate the ancient practice have Free downloadable pdf file located at actually contributed to deforestation, loss of http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/api047.pdf.

The Two Koreas: Prospects for Economic Cooperation and “one nation, two systems” outcome, but the North Integration, by Marcus Noland. East-West Center could collapse before this is completed (or one side or Special Reports, No. 7. December 2000. 32 pp. the other could attempt a forcible unification). Central The two Koreas have embarked on a process of to the prospects for peaceful coexistence are three To order East-West Center national reconciliation, but the starting points are not questions: Is North Korea willing to change, is it publications, contact the auspicious. South Korea is still grappling with the capable of successfully managing change, and to what East-West Center aftershocks of the 1997-98 financial crisis, while purpose would it apply the fruits of change? Publication Sales Office, North Korea’s economy has experienced a decade of Paper, $7.00 plus shipping/handling from the 1601 East-West Road, decline. Both governments are officially aiming for a East-West Center, [email protected]. Honolulu, HI 96848-1601. New Survey Measures Fertility and Family Planning method. Female sterilization is by far the most popular Phone: (808)944-7145. Trends in India, by Sidney B. Westley and Robert D. method, used by 34 percent of all currently married Fax (808)944-7376. Retherford. Asia-Pacific Population & Policy No. 55, women age 15-49. The use of spacing methods (pills, E-mail: ewcbooks@ October 2000. Honolulu: East-West Center. 4 pp. IUDs, condoms) remains extremely low. EastWestCenter.org According to the second National Family Health Single copies available free of charge from the Note: These books are Survey in India, the total fertility rate in 1998-99 was East-West Center, [email protected]. also available to walk-in 2.9 children per woman. Fertility levels vary widely Free downloadable pdf file located at customers at the EWC among India’s regions and states. Nearly one-half of http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/p&p055.pdf. Publications Office. currently married women are using some contraceptive 7

Presidents, prime ministers, governors and officials of 14 nations and territories in the Pacific Islands region gathered for the 6th annual Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders at the East-West Center, January 30-31. PThe event marked the 20th anniversary of the Conference, its Standing Committee, and the Pacific Islands Development Program (PIDP) based at the East-West Center. Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara, former prime minister of Fiji and member of the EWC’s International Board of Governors, convened the conference, which is held every three years. The theme adopted was “Pacific Peoples Futures: In an Era of Globalization, How Do We Care For and Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara (right), member of the EWC Share With Others?” Pacific leaders discussed issues Board of Governors and conference convenor, confers with pertaining to governance and globalization in the Sitiveni Halapua, director of EWC’s Pacific Islands region, tensions between global and local cultural Development Program. values, the effect of globalization on island economies, security and strategic Admiral Dennis C. Blair, Commander in Chief of challenges, opportunities the Pacific, spoke of “U.S. Interests in the Pacific.” Pacific Islands Leaders for telecommunications, The U.S. considers international criminal activity and and the consequences ethnic violence as threats to security in the region, of climate change. Blair said. He emphasized that regional cooperation in on Globalization, During the first intelligence and law enforcement and other Pacific session, Kessai H. Islands efforts to address these areas of concern are the Note, president of the way to curtail these threats to regional security. Regional Cooperation Republic of the At the conclusion of the conference, Leo A. Falcam, Marshall Islands, president of the Federated States of Micronesia, was suggested the Pacific Islands work as a unit, not as elected to lead the organization’s Standing Committee individual countries, to cope with globalization for the next three years. President Falcam is a 1961 East- impacts — noting that both unity and diversity are West Center Alumnus. Prince ‘Ulukalala Lavaka Ata, key Pacific Islands strengths. He said the EWC and prime minister of Tonga, was elected vice-chairman. PIDP could work with the Pacific leaders to help Leaders from Pacific Islands countries and provide some policy guidance. territories who participated were from American Prime Minister Terepai Maoate of the Cook Samoa, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Islands addressed the session on Pacific Islands Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New economies and managing the requirements of Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon international financial organizations. International Islands, Tonga, and Tuvalu. Also attending was organizations need to help poorer countries by being Benjamin Cayetano, governor of Hawaii. more flexible and “user-friendly,” he said and The EWC Pacific Islands Development Program questioned whether the Pacific Islands are any better was established at the first Pacific Islands Conference off because of their own regional organizations. He of Leaders, held at the EWC in 1980. The PIDP advocated studying whether these regional institutions serves as the secretariat and research arm of the need to be streamlined, restructured or abolished, and Conference and its Standing Committee. Sitiveni new ones created. Halapua of Tonga is PIDP director.

EWC President Charles Morrison (left) talks with Governor Tauese P.F. Sunia of American Samoa. Seated next to him are Prime Minister Terepai Maoate of the Cook Islands and Leo A. Falcam, President of the Federated States of Micronesia. 8

Notes and Quotes

From A broad strategy developed at Japan’s National including illegal fishing, illegal entry and piracy. “Protecting Japan’s Right to Institute for Defense Studies envisages a Japan-led It would have both benign military duties, such as Freedom of Navigation” international Ocean Peacekeeping Force, which would search and rescue, and constabulary functions. There By Mark Valencia, EWC Senior Fellow be primarily concerned with activities that are have been many examples of bilateral cooperation in The Japan Times necessary to fulfill obligations under the 1982 U.N. of this type but none on a multilateral basis. December 28, 2000 AConvention on the Law of the Sea to maintain This long-term vision has the peace-keeping force maritime order and prevent armed conflict at sea. providing a framework for security cooperation between The force would conduct joint monitoring Japan, the U.S., China and Russia. Such an approach activities to protect the environment and resources in could help curb the pirate scourge in the region, and in waters beyond state control, as well as combat illegal the longer run greatly enhance both safety and the activities that span international maritime boundaries, freedom of navigation regime in the South China Sea.

From WASHINGTON — “Global Trends 2015” is the senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, “Report Sees Conflict Risk in Asia” result of analysis culled from U.S. experts in the and author of the book “Asia Security Practice,” said By Jason Sherman national intelligence community as well as from the prospects of war in the region are low. in Defense News January 8, 2001 academia and industry. The report examined how “There has been a perception in Europe and the Wfactors such as demographic shifts, availability of United States that Asia is going to be conflict-torn in natural resources and advancement and proliferation the future,” Alagappa told Defense News (on) Dec. 4. of technology will influence the world and prospects “Yes, there is potential for conflict, but the political for war and international cooperation…. motives that lead to war are not strong enough. So I do Despite these dynamics, Muthiah Alagappa, a not see the potential for all out war in Asia,” he said.

From If the speed of that downward spiral were not “It’s an extraordinarily good thing that Filipinos “Filipino History Repeats Itself — Quicker” dizzying enough, judicial, military, and religious leaders have brought about this transition without bloodshed, By Ilene R. Prusher announced that they would swear in (Gloria Macapagal) but there’s also the breakdown of the process of in the Christian Science Monitor Arroyo by noon Saturday — even before (Philippine impeachment itself, and that doesn’t bode well for January 22, 2001 President) Estrada had agreed to leave office. Indeed, he democracy,” says Gerard A. Finin, a Southeast Asia Istill has not formally resigned and never used the word expert at the East-West Center in Hawaii. “It reeks of “resign” when he announced Saturday that he would a politicized military,” adds Mr. Finin. “There is some leave the palace. That has left some here questioning the need to have some separation between church and very constitutionality of the succession, widely touted as state, and between military and state, and that’s one a shining example of democracy in action. big blur at this point.”

From Looking ahead, we should also increase co- This certainly was borne out when then-U.S. President “New Challenges Await Pacific Region” operation with the Association of Southeast Asian George Bush requested in 1990 that a summit By Ratu Sir Kamisese Nations. At the same time, it is important to maintain meeting convene at the East-West Center with the K.T. Mara in and strengthen cooperation with the United States. All leaders of Pacific island nations. The Honolulu Advertiser of this can contribute to a stronger and more vibrant President Bush was not only empathetic to our January 28, 2001 L Asia Pacific community. particular issues and concerns but also prepared to We have confidence that there is no better commit the United States to longer-term action. As a institution for strengthening these linkages, with a result of the summit, the U.S.-Pacific Island National time-tested record of accomplishment, than the East- Joint Commercial Commission was established, with West Center’s Pacific Islands Development Program. PIDP housing its secretariat.

Non-Profit Org. U.S. Postage PAID 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, HI Honolulu, Hawaii 96848-1601 Permit No. 264

CHANGE SERVICE REQUESTED EWC Foundation 1

New Member of the EWC Foundation Board of Directors Newly appointed to the EWC Foundation Board was Joichi Saito, chairman of the board and chief executive officer, Central Pacific Bank. East-West Co-Chairs James F. Gary Ihakara Puketapu Center Kenneth F. Brown John N. Hawkins Jean E. Rolles Foundation Haigo Shen Lawrence M. Johnson Joichi Saito 2001 Board Directors Daniel B.T. Lau Puongpun Sananikone of Directors Joan M. Bickson Edison Miyawaki Oswald K. Stender Frank Boas Gerald M. Pang Ratan Tata Mark Fukunaga G. Markus Polivka Gulab Watumull

East-West Center Arts Program The Hawaii Pacific Rim Society has continued its Grass in Hawaii performance and demonstrations from generous support of the East-West Center Arts April 8 to 11; and the Pacific Islands Arts Initiative Program through its funding of the following three which includes the Vanuatu: A Melanesian Society in projects in 2001: Carved Puppets of Asia exhibition Transition exhibition from July 5 to September 21 and from January 23 to March 23; Bamboo in Japanese ‘Atenisi Performing Arts Ensemble from Tonga from Culture: Traditional, Ritual, Practical exhibition from June to July. April 8 to 11; Silk & Bamboo: the Sounds of Bamboo William Feltz and Benji Bennington of the EWC Arts Program; Hideo Murakami, Hawaii Pacific Rim Society; and Dr. Michael Schuster, co-curator of the Carved Puppets of Asia exhibition.

How the 2001 Tax Changes Will Affect You Please join us for a seminar by Stephen H. Reese, Esq., Date: Tuesday, March 20, 2001 estate planning attorney, on Tuesday, March 20, to Time: 11:30 a.m. Lunch 12:00 noon Seminar assist you in understanding how President Bush’s proposed tax changes will affect the average family in Place: East-West Center Hawaii. A complimentary lunch and parking will be Hawaii Imin International Conference Center provided. There is no charge or obligation for this Kaniela Room seminar. 1777 East-West Road RSVP: Gary Yoshida at 944-7196 By Friday, March 16 (please indicate whether you will need parking) EWC Foundation 2

On behalf of the Annual President’s Dr. & Mrs. William Counselor East-West Center, M. H. Dung Giving Council W. Mendel Borthwick, Jr. we would like to thank Mary C. Forestieri those individuals, Levels The Hawaii Pacific Rim Lee-Jay & Eun-Ja Cho corporations, businesses, Society Mr. & Mrs. James F. foundations, and President’s Gary H. Dwight Damon organizations who have Council Statesman Honda Foundation, David M. Haig generously contributed $25,000 or more Paul Honda to the East-West Center Frank Boas Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc. Foundation. Listed President Honsador Lumber Marian C. & Walter G. Corporation below are gifts received $10,000 - $24,999 Chuck Foundation Mr. & Mrs. Akemi between November 1, Lawrence M. Johnson Kurokawa 2000 and January 31, Statesman Philip H. Laughlin, III Linsu Kim Jenny L. Lampson 2001. $5,000 - $9,999 Dr. & Mrs. Edison H. Miyawaki Robert G. Lees Chiyeko Miyasaki Ambassador Yoshinori Murakami Jeni Miyasaki $1,000 - $4,999 Servco Foundation Robert C. Oshiro The Ninash Foundation Counselor Ambassador Tsue A. & Gerald A. A. Terry and Patma $500 - $999 Ostermann Vityakon Rambo Mrs. Abraham Akaka Diplomat Dr. & Mrs. William J. Robert & Ursula The Rev. Abraham Kahu Perry Retherford $100 - $499 Akaka Ministries Foundation Sarah K. Vann Seiro Takehara Colleague $99 and below Richard L. Collins The Hon. John D. Waihee, III

EWC Foundation Programs AsiaPacific Breakfast Briefing Jhamandas Watumull President Charles Morrison spoke on “Prospects for U.S.-India Fellowship Program Asia Pacific in 2001” on January 16, 2001 at the Bank With the support of the Jhamandas Watumull Fund, of Hawaii Executive Dining Room. the East-West Center will continue two visiting fellowships with the purpose of promoting cooperation Asia Pacific Outlook between India and the United States. In addition to 2001 Speaker Series preparing their research papers and making presentations to business and research communities in Eileen Shea, EWC climate project coordinator, spoke Honolulu, the scholars will also travel to the U.S. on “Consequences of Climate Change: Challenges and mainland and to New Delhi to present their research Opportunities for the Pacific Islands and Hawaii” on findings. The first recipients were Pradeep Agrawal December 14, 2000 at the Outrigger Wailea Resort. and Sanjaya Baru. This year’s focus will be on Richard Baker, EWC former director of studies, spoke technology cooperation. Gulab Watumull, a member on “Foreign Policy Challenges for the New of the EWC Foundation Board of Directors, is Administration” on November 28, 2000 at the Mauna president of the J. Watumull Fund. Lani Bay Hotel and Bungalows. The neighbor island speaker series is made possible by the support of Hawaiian Airlines, Mauna Lani Bay Hotel and Bungalows and Outrigger Wailea Resort. EWC Foundation 3

Diplomat Mary Jo Freshley Daniel B. T. Lau SAFECO Life Insurance Companies AFSCME Local 928, Norman C. Fu Nancy Laughlin AFL-CIO Yasuhiko Saito Mr. & Mrs. Robert M. Dr. Irving Lazar Dr. Michael H. Anderson Fujimoto Mr. & Mrs. Robert K. Suzanne Brown Little Sakai William Armbruster Prof. Kouhei Funatsu Robin U. Loomis Mr. & Mrs. Yoshiharu Jim Belz Mary Jo Rossi Furgal Paul Lundberg Satoh Dr. Edward J. Bentz, Jr. Mark K. L. Goldstein, Prof. Robert A. Scalapino Ph.D. James D. Lynn Beverly Ann Bush Richard Theodore Lee Gren Sumi Y. Makey J. W. A. Buyers Schultz Clark G. Hatch Linda G. Martin Michael S. Carl Carl W. Schwartz Adm. Ronald J. Hays, Professor Kenichi Matsui Ralph R. Carvalho William H. Sewell USN (Ret.) Masakazu and Nancy Vicki L. Shambaugh Boonthai & Saichay Dr. Lawrence R. Heaney Matsumoto Chantavy Kevin R. Shaney Robert B. Hewett Gordon J. Mau Dr. & Mrs. Donald F. B. Anees A. Sheikh Char Teruo Himoto David & Wendie McClain Kiyoshi Shioiri Chaonan Chen James F. Hopgood, Ph.D. Harriet McFarlane Anahita Thanawalla Larry and Beatrice Ching Connie Howard Sidhwa Foundation Mr. & Mrs. Robert R. Professor Nancy G. Midkiff G. William Skinner Minja Choe Hume Susan Mittleman David G. Streets Henry B. Clark, Jr. Brett Humphreys Kimie Miyazaki Anthony F. Sukowatey Robert F. Clarke Teruhisa Ichihara Rasim Moid Christine K. Sutow Richard R. Clifton Yoshiki Iinuma Marie A. Monsen Linda C. Takayama Elsie Cunningham Andrew & Jennie In Randolph G. Moore Shigeatsu Taki Ken and Hyla Cushner Osamu Iwata Dr. & Mrs. Kenneth P. William M. Taylor Dr. Dale C. Dahl Bruce T. Johnson Mortimer The Times Mirror Dr. Robert H. Dale David Jones Dr. Savario Mungo Foundation Mr. & Mrs. C. F. Mark Juergensmeyer Mr. & Mrs. Wallace T. Ricardo D. Trimillos Damon, Jr. Nagao Annie M. Kaneshiro Tokiko Umezawa Donald R. Dawson Joan M. Natalie Janet M. Kanja Dr. Amnuay Viravan William Theodore Takashi Nonin DeBary Theodore N. Kaplan Betty M. Vitousek Douglas Russell Norton Martha Anne Dow Taeko Kato Dr. Frank M. Vivio Caroline Ward Oda Yvonne Han Edelin Capt. & Mrs. Lawrence Mary J. Wagner & W. Kelley John and Yahui Olenik Metone S. Wamma Glenna M. Eshleman James A. Kelly Kazu Omoya Ethel Alikpala Ward Zenaida Estrada Richard S. Kennedy Dwight H. Perkins Dr. Susan S. Waugh EWC Craft Fair Committee Hypatia Kingsley & Diane Peters-Nguyen General Fred C. Weyand Daniel McArdle Prof. Nien Tze Fan Eveline Grapens John Williams Mrs. Teresita L. Chan Prof. Harold Farwell Kopka Stephen and Priscilla Cynthia Winegar Pingree Foodland Super Market, Richard and Mildred Paul A. Wright Ltd. Kosaki Diane J. Plotts Zijin Yang The Honorable Mr. & Mrs. Kenneth R. Teresita V. Ramos Gary H. Yoshida Galen W. Fox Kupchak Arwin Rasbid & Mrs. Carol M. Fox Jitsuri Yoshida Avrum D. Lank Leon Richards EWC Foundation 4

Yoshinori Yoshida My D. Do Thomas H. Keene J. K. Richards The East-West Center Drs. Mimi & Muneo Betty Dodds Andrea Kempf Gordon and Milly Ring Foundation has made Yoshikawa every effort to present an Ernest J. Donehower Alissa Keny-Guyer Marcia Beth Ristaino accurate listing of donors. William M. Zanella Doris Duke Charitable Thao Khamoui Mary Frances Huth If your name has been Laura A. Ziegler Foundation Robey omitted or erroneously Sumiye E. Konoshima listed, please call David Norman Zurick Michael R. Dove Nancy M. Sakamoto Katie Kyndely Judy Masters at Steven Ebesu Kazuo Sato 808-944-7105. Charles S. La Monica Colleague Jeanne Louise Edman Regina B. Schofield Dr. Carleen S. Leggett Timothy L. Albao Roger Ernst John H. Scranton Dr. Howard M. Leichter Colonel Ronald H. Virginia O. Fine Chandrahas Hiralal Shah Averill, USA (Ret.) Arthur Lisciandro Stephen Fleck, M.D. Mr. & Mrs. Tsutomu Adolph F. Bakun Ramon R. Lopez, Ph.D. Shiraki Scott Ford Richard E. Ball, Ph.D. Dr. Cynthia A. Lowry Prof. & L. R. Silverman James H. French Bank of America John B. Lum Pearllette Simao Matching Gifts Program Alan S. Fujimoto Dr. Norman Y. Luther Dr. Susan Skelton Tom Banse Mrs. Catherine Muirhead Gallagher Iain Macfarlane Dr. Barry D. Solomon Roger S. Bellinger Paul R. Gardiner Kay Marinos Kristen Strellec Susan Sutterfield Bells Robert D. Geise Dr. Mikiko Matsumura Proserfina A. Strona Genevieve Brighouse- Failauga Dr. Margaret Spafford Dr. James & Shangming (Julia) Su Golfin Dr. Elizabeth Patricia W. Buckman McCutcheon Prof. Frank Tang Trina Gonzalez Robert E. Campbell Linda Karen Miller Edward Leonard Taubold Chance I. Gusukuma William M. Carpenter Daisy C. Mo Pirith Thipphavong Dr. Loren J. Habegger Dr. Laurence Marshall Susan R. Morrow, Ph.D. John & Donna Thomas Carucci Kiyoshi Hamano Wali Naibi Richard J. Tobin Charlotte Cascio Ormond W. Hammond Dr. Xavier J. Harry C. Triandis Arnold Castagner Sandra Handler Nampiaparampil Dr. & Mrs. Nai-Kuan Robert C. Causton Juliana M. Hersman Roger C. Niemeyer Tsao Murray Chapman Wayne A. Hudders William L. & Nenita A. Albert E. Varady Ninde Mr. & Mrs. Kenneth Al Hulsen Regis Voss Chong Kenneth Y. Nishihara Sandra L. Hyde, Ph.D. Dr. Lynn T. White Yvonne E. Chotzen Mary M. Okihara Cheryl Denise Kaneko Dennis L. Wilcox Theron Jon Chun Ikemiya Steve & Gigi Olive Bobbie Wygant Dr. Helen A. Cox Edwin L. Johnson Dr. William B. Owen James T. Yamamoto Robert R. Craft Mary M. Dickens James E. Owens Johnson Dwayne D. Yoshina Mr. & Mrs. Gordon H. Dr. Barbara A. Peterson Damon Garth N. Jones Dr. Nancy Foon Young Vincent Kelly Pollard Dr. Ajit K. Das Robert B. Kaplan Sheila Zuehlke Stephen Pyrczak Larry J. Diamond Joann W. Kealiinohomoku, Ph.D. Morita Rapoza Fran Dieudonne Professor William E. Remus