Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific

Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Building greater climate resilience into the agriculture sector in Asia and the Pacific must begin with an understanding of the likely added risks and vulnerabilities the sector will face from climate change. The Asian Development Bank–sponsored agriculture sector study, carried out by the International Food Policy Research Institute, uses predictions of global climate models to develop scenarios up to 2050 for Asia and to derive implications for food security. The study recommends cost-effective adaptation responses that could and the Pacific Asia of Sector in the Agriculture Resilience Climate Building better equip vulnerable regions and countries to cope with the likely impact of climate change under alternative scenarios. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries substantially reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.8 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 903 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org Printed in the Philippines Agriculture.indd 1 9/25/2009 7:01:46 PM Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific International Food Policy Research Institute © 2009 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2009. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN Publication Stock No. Cataloging-In-Publication Data (title of the publication; written in lowercase except proper nouns and the first word) Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2009. 1. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel: +63 2 632 4444 Fax: + 63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org For orders, please contact: Department of External Relations Fax: +63 2 636 2648 [email protected] Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Contents Foreword xv Acknowledgments xvii Executive Summary 1 Overview 1 Agricultural Profile of Asia and the Pacific 2 Climate Change Trends 4 Resilience as the Conceptual Framework 6 The Role of Adaptation 9 Important Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation 16 Conclusions and Priority Actions 19 Chapter I. Introduction and Overview 23 Introduction 23 Conceptual Framework 24 The Three Dimensions of Vulnerability 26 Exposure 27 Sensitivity 34 Adaptive Capacity 44 Implementation of the Conceptual Framework 45 Actions to Reduce Vulnerability and Build Resilience 45 Adaptation 46 Mitigation 47 Outcomes of Improved Resilience 48 Limitations of the Modeling Undertaken 48 Summary 50 Chapter II. Vulnerability of Countries in Asia and the Pacific to Climate Change 51 Factors Affecting Vulnerability to Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific 51 Results of Vulnerability Assessments for Asia and the Pacific 53 Bangladesh 53 iii Contents Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Pakistan 56 Cambodia 56 Viet Nam/Mekong Delta 56 The People’s Republic of China and India 57 Central Asia 58 Pacific Island Countries 60 Vulnerability Indicator for Asia and the Pacific 62 Summary 65 Chapter III. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security 67 Introduction 67 Components of the Modeling Framework 68 Crop Modeling 68 Climate Data 68 Other Agronomic Inputs 70 Linking Crop Model Results to IMPACT 70 Modeling Results 70 The Effects of Climate Change on Yields 70 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Human Well-being 79 The Costs of Adaptation 91 Effects of Trade Liberalization and Increased Protection 96 Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Crop Area in Asia and the Pacific 99 Limitations 99 Conclusions 102 Chapter IV. Adaptation Policies, Investments and Institutional Reforms 103 Introduction 103 Local Coping Strategies 107 Central Asia 107 East Asia 107 South Asia 108 Southeast Asia and the Mekong Subregion 109 Innovative Adaptation to Climate Change 110 Changes in Agricultural Practices 110 Changes in Agricultural Water Management 116 Agricultural Diversification 119 Agricultural Science and Technology Development 119 iv Contents Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Agricultural Advisory Services and Information Systems 124 Risk Management and Crop Insurance 126 Strengthening Important Ongoing Development Initiatives to Support Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation 127 Secure Property Rights 127 Agricultural Market Development 131 Agricultural Policies 131 Trade Policies 132 Other Environmental Policies 132 Social Protection 134 Financial Markets: The Role of Microfinance 135 Disaster Preparedness 136 Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Policies 142 Mainstreaming Climate Change and Adaptation into Development Planning 142 Financing Adaptation 144 The role of the CGIAR in Climate Change 146 Significant New Investments 147 The Cost of Adaptation 148 Global Adaptation Costs 148 Adaptation Costs for Asia and the Pacific 156 Reforming Climate Change-related Governance and Institutions 157 Civil Society 160 Government Institutions 160 Regional Organizations 162 Development Agencies and Donors 163 The Private Sector 163 Adaptation Policy Recommendations 164 Chapter V. Opportunities for Mitigation and Synergies with Adaptation and Sustainable Development 171 Introduction 171 Global and Regional Emissions Trends and Sources 172 Agricultural Soils 175 Livestock and Manure Management 176 Rice Cultivation 178 Other Agricultural Sources 179 Mitigation Strategies in the Agricultural Sector 179 Carbon Sequestration 180 v Contents Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Bioenergy 181 On-Farm Mitigation 184 Summary of Technical Mitigation Potential 186 Economic Potential of Mitigation Options 186 Summary of Economic Mitigation Potential 188 Institutional Barriers to Mitigation in Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific 189 Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation in Sustainable Development Pathways 191 Synergies between Mitigation and Adaptation 193 Combating Economic Losses in the Pursuit of Mitigation Strategies 194 Generating Income from Carbon Markets and Ensuring Smallholder Participation 194 Summary 195 Chapter VI. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 197 Introduction 197 Agriculture’s Role in Asia and the Pacific 197 Climate Change Trends 198 Vulnerability to Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific 199 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture 199 Adaptation Measures 201 Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation 202 Conclusions and Priority Actions 203 Negative Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security 204 Assistance Should be Targeted Towards those Most Vulnerable to Climate Change 205 Key Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Need to be Undertaken Now 206 International Trade is an Important Mechanism for Sharing Climate Change Risk 209 Regional Cooperation among Governments in Asia and the Pacific Needs to be Improved 210 Agriculture Needs to Form Part of International Climate Change Negotiations 211 Appendixes 213 Appendix 1: Additional Tables 213 Appendix 2: List of ADB’s Developing Member Countries, by Subregion 243 Appendix 3: List of Regional or Subregional Groupings Involving Countries in Asia and the Pacific 245 Appendix 4: Survey of Climate Change Impact Models 250 Agronomic-Economic Simulations 250 Agroecological Zone Analysis 251 Ricardian Models 252 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific according to Global Assessments 253 Appendix 5: IFPRI’s Climate Change Modeling Framework 256 vi Contents Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific Approach 256 Modeling Overview 256 Adaptation Needs and Potential 259 Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture 259 The IMPACT2009 Model 264 Spatial Aggregation Issues 266 Modeling the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change 266 How we Represent the Future 271 References 272 Glossary 298 List of Tables Table 1.1: Indicators of Vulnerability in the Agricultural Sector 28 Table 1.2: Projected Change in Long-term Mean Temperature and Precipitation under Climate Change, Various Scenarios

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