DOCSLIB.ORG

Quarterly Bulletin Autumn 2003

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Quarterly Bulletin Autumn 2003 Quarterly Bulletin Autumn 2003 Bank of England Volume 43 Number 3 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Autumn 2003 Summary 255 Recent economic and financial developments Markets and operations 257 Box on issuance of HM Government US dollar bond 262 Box on adjustments to the Bank’s official operations in the sterling money markets 270 Research and analysis Trends in households’ aggregate secured debt 271 Box on structure of model 272 Public expectations of UK inflation 281 Non-employment and labour availability 291 The information content of regional house prices: can they be used to improve national house price forecasts? 304 Balance sheet adjustment by UK companies 315 Summaries of recent Bank of England working papers Implicit interest rates and corporate balance sheets: an analysis using aggregate and disaggregated UK data 327 A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies 328 Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators 329 UK business investment: long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics 330 E-barter versus fiat money: will central banks survive? 331 Non-interest income and total income stability 332 Credit risk diversification: evidence from the eurobond market 333 Houblon-Norman essays Inflation targeting and the fiscal policy regime: the experience in Brazil 334 The optimal rate of inflation: an academic perspective 343 Reports The EU Financial Services Action Plan: a guide 352 Box on a Single Market in Financial Services: estimating the benefits 353 Box on FSAP measures 356 Box on the Lamfalussy process 359 Box on market experts’ views about the FSAP 362 Speeches Credit conditions and monetary policy Speech by Paul Tucker, executive director of the Bank of England and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, given to the Leeds Financial Services Initiative on 28 August 2003 366 The contents page, with links to the articles in PDF, is available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/qbcontents/index.html. Authors of articles can be contacted at [email protected]. The speeches contained in the Bulletin can be found at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/index.html. Volume 43 Number 3 Printed by Park Communications © Bank of England 2003 ISSN 0005-5166 Quarterly Bulletin—Autumn 2003 Markets and operations This article reviews developments since the Summer Quarterly Bulletin in sterling and (pages 257–70) global financial markets, UK market structure and the Bank’s official operations. Research and analysis Research work published by the Bank is intended to contribute to debate, and (pages 271–333) does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank or of MPC members. Trends in households’ aggregate secured debt (by Rob Hamilton of the Bank’s Structural Economic Analysis Division). The aggregate level of households’ secured debt relative to their income has increased by about a quarter over the past five years, and has almost tripled since 1980. Using a simple model, this article concludes that much of this increase can be accounted for by the spread of homeownership and the fall in inflation (which has reduced the rate at which households’ real debt burden is eroded over time). However, the model is unable to account for the full extent of the recent increase in secured borrowing growth. The model also suggests that, because only a relatively small fraction of the housing stock changes hands each year, the aggregate level of debt responds relatively slowly to changes in house prices. So the recent increases in house prices could lead to continuing increases in the debt to income ratio over the next five to ten years. Public expectations of UK inflation (by Clare Lombardelli and Jumana Saleheen of the Bank’s Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division). Every quarter, NOP carries out a survey of the inflation expectations of the general public. This article illustrates how expectations vary according to individuals’ different circumstances, and tries to explain how these differences might occur. Non-employment and labour availability (by Jerry Jones, Michael Joyce and Jonathan Thomas of the Bank’s Structural Economic Analysis Division). According to the Labour Force Survey, about 20% (approximately 7.5 million) of the non-student working-age population were not in paid employment in 2002. Of these people about one in five were classified as unemployed, with the remainder labelled as ‘inactive’. Despite this categorisation, however, some groups in the so-called inactive population are as likely to move into employment as those classified as unemployed, so any comprehensive measure of labour availability needs to incorporate information on the characteristics of the non-employed pool as a whole. This paper describes the key trends in the demographic and skill structure of the non-employed population since the mid-1980s and contrasts them with those in employment. It also attempts to draw out the implications of these trends for overall labour availability, building on recent Bank research which models individual transition rates from non-employment into employment. The information content of regional house prices: can they be used to improve national house price forecasts? (by Rob Wood of the Bank’s Structural Economic Analysis Division). It is often suggested that house price movements in the South East lead, or even cause, movements in the rest of the United Kingdom. If this were the case then house price inflation in the South East would be useful when forecasting national house price inflation. There are plausible channels through which such a ‘ripple effect’ could operate. But tests for patterns of regional price changes consistent with the effect give mixed results. There is evidence that regional price 255 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin: Autumn 2003 changes were consistent with the South East playing a leading role in the late 1980s/early 1990s, but not during other periods. So it is important to understand the nature of the shock to the housing market before concluding that a given house price change in London and the South East has implications for house prices in other regions. Balance sheet adjustment by UK companies (by Philip Bunn and Garry Young of the Bank’s Domestic Finance Division). Corporate debt levels in the United Kingdom are currently at an historically high level in relation to the market value of corporate capital. Empirical evidence discussed in this article suggests that this is unlikely to be an equilibrium position and that companies will continue to act so as to strengthen their balance sheets. Much of this adjustment is likely to occur through financial channels, such as reduced dividend payments or increased new equity issues, but it could also occur through more restrained capital investment. Illustrative simulations presented in the article suggest that adjustment tends to be gradual and that it may take several years for balance sheets to return to equilibrium. Houblon-Norman essays Inflation targeting and the fiscal policy regime: the experience in Brazil (by Francesco (pages 334–51) Giavazzi, Houblon-Norman Fellow and Professor of Economics at Bocconi University, Milan and Visiting Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology). This article reviews the recent experience of Brazil showing that credit risk is at the centre of the mechanism through which a central bank might lose control of inflation. Brazil during 2002 came close to a situation where fiscal policy hindered the effectiveness of monetary policy. But in early 2003 a change in investors’ perception of the long-run fiscal stance brought the economy back to normal conditions, reducing credit risk, stabilising the exchange rate and, through these two variables, inflation expectations, inflation and the dynamics of the public debt. Brazil’s experience could thus offer useful lessons for other emerging market economies, which consider adopting inflation targeting as their monetary policy rule. The optimal rate of inflation: an academic perspective (by Peter Sinclair, Houblon-Norman Fellow and Professor of Economics at the University of Birmingham). In an economy free of all imperfections, inflation should be slightly negative. Prices should keep dropping, at the real rate of interest. Any higher rate of sustained inflation (or lower deflation) would reduce the benefits from holding real money. Central banks typically aim for modest positive inflation, however. This article explores five types of imperfection: inertia in nominal prices, the need for distorting taxes, market power for retail banks, the value of the option to cut nominal interest rates in bad times, and menu costs. It concludes that the combined effect of these imperfections is in practice likely to justify a small positive rate of inflation. Reports The EU Financial Services Action Plan: a guide. A Single Market in financial services (pages 352–65) has long been an EU objective. The integration of financial markets in the EU has progressed much further in wholesale than in retail financial services, with the latter still segmented largely along national lines. The Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) consists of a set of measures intended by 2005 to fill gaps and remove the remaining barriers to a Single Market in financial services across the EU as a whole. This guide to the FSAP has been prepared by HM Treasury, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and the Bank of England. The guide is intended to provide an introduction to the FSAP for the UK financial sector, corporate sector and consumer
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Batini, Nicoletta; Nelson, Edward Working Paper Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 103 Provided in Cooperation with: Central Bank of Sweden, Stockholm Suggested Citation: Batini, Nicoletta; Nelson, Edward (2000) : Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting, Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 103, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/82438 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 2SWLPDO+RUL]RQVIRU,QIODWLRQ7DUJHWLQJ Η Ι Nicoletta Batini and Edward Nelson 5HYLVHGYHUVLRQ)HEUXDU\ $EVWUDFW In this paper we investigate the problem of selecting an optimal horizon for inflation targeting in the United Kingdom.
    [Show full text]
  • The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition
    = tlohfkd=m^mbop=fk= fkqbok^qflk^i=b`lkljf`p= kçîÉãÄÉê=OMMR=√ =kçK=TKMR= qÜÉ=däçÄ~ä=j~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= `çåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=çÑ=~=aÉãçÖê~éÜáÅ= qê~åëáíáçå= t~êïáÅâ=g=j`háÄÄáå= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=bÅçåçãó=mêçÖê~ã= The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent international policy think tank based in Sydney, Australia. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia - economic, political and strategic – and it is not limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to: • produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia’s international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate. • promote discussion of Australia’s role in the world by providing an accessible and high quality forum for discussion of Australian international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences. This Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed in this paper are entirely the author’s own and not those of the Lowy Institute for International Policy. The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition Warwick J. McKibbin Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, RSPAS, Australian National University; & The Lowy Institute for International Policy; & The Brookings Institution Draft: 28 October 2005 _________________________ This paper was prepared for the G20 Workshop to be held in Sydney on 27-28 August 2005. It is part of a joint research project with Ralph C. Bryant of the Brookings Institution. Earlier work on this project was supported by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Japan Cabinet Office as part of their series of International Collaboration Projects.
    [Show full text]
  • Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?
    Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies? Andrew T. Levin * and Jeremy M. Piger ** First Draft: October 2002 This Draft: June 2006 Abstract: Many empirical studies have indicated that inflation exhibits very high persistence throughout the post-war period in nearly every industrial economy. In this paper we challenge this conventional wisdom and instead argue that in many cases, high inflation persistence is an artifact of empirical techniques that fail to account for occasional shifts in the monetary policy regime. In particular, we estimate autoregressive models of inflation for twelve OECD countries over the period 1984-2004, and we then perform tests for the existence of a structural break at an unknown date. For eight of the twelve countries, we find strong evidence for a break in intercept in the late 1980s or early 1990s; furthermore, conditional on the break in intercept, each inflation measure generally exhibits much lower persistence. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies. Keywords: Inflation dynamics, largest autoregressive root, monetary regimes, structural break JEL Codes: C11, C22, E31 We appreciate helpful comments from Nicoletta Batini, Luca Benati, Ben Bernanke, Todd Clark, Tim Cogley, Günter Coenen, Chris Erceg, Jordi Gali, Luca Guerrieri, Lutz Kilian, Tom King, Jesper Lindé, Ming Lo, Mike McCracken, Ed Nelson, Jeremy Rudd, Jim Stock, Mark Watson, Karl Whelan, Volker Wieland, Tony Yates, and seminar participants at the Bank of England, Bank of France, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and St. Louis, Midwest Macroeconomics Conference, University of Georgia, University of Kentucky, University of Missouri, and University of Virginia.
    [Show full text]
  • 5. Etableringen Av Norges Banks Regionale Nettverk
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Berg, Thomas Nordbø; Kleivset, Christoffer Research Report Inflasjonsstyring - et dokumentasjonsnotat om enkelte metodeendringer som har funnet sted i Norges Bank i perioden 2001-2013 Staff Memo, No. 5/2014 Provided in Cooperation with: Norges Bank, Oslo Suggested Citation: Berg, Thomas Nordbø; Kleivset, Christoffer (2014) : Inflasjonsstyring - et dokumentasjonsnotat om enkelte metodeendringer som har funnet sted i Norges Bank i perioden 2001-2013, Staff Memo, No. 5/2014, ISBN 978-82-7553-799-5, Norges Bank, Oslo, http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506914 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/210294 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made
    [Show full text]
  • Sovereign Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity
    Sovereign Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity∗ Diego Anzoateguiy Rutgers University November, 2018 Abstract I study the impact of austerity programs implemented in the Eurozone since 2010. To do so I incorporate strategic sovereign default into a DSGE model where the government follows fiscal rules, which are estimated from data. I calibrate the model using data from Spain and estimate the size and impact of fiscal policy shocks associated with austerity policies. I then use the model to predict what would have happened to output, consumption, employment, sovereign debt levels and spreads if Spain had continued to follow the pre-2010 fiscal rule instead of switching to the austerity track. I find that, contrary to the expectations of policy makers at the time, austerity did not decrease sovereign spreads or debt-to{GDP ratios during 2010-2013. Furthermore it had a negative impact on employment and GDP. Nevertheless, the short run pain is related to a long run gain. The model predicts that as a consequence of austerity Spain is more likely to show lower levels of debt and spreads in the future. ∗I am grateful to Ricardo Lagos and Mark Gertler for their guidance and support throughout this project. I also thank Jaroslav Borovicka, William Easterly, Miguel Faria e Castro, Raquel Fernandez, Nic Kozeniauskas, Joseba Martinez, Diego Perez, Pau Roldan and Gianluca Violante for helpful comments. yDepartment of Economics, Rutgers University, 75 Hamilton St., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901. Email: [email protected] 1 1 Introduction The European debt crisis of 2010 triggered a debate on the potential effects of fiscal austerity.
    [Show full text]
  • Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan1
    Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan1 Nicoletta Batini a*, Giovanni Callegari b and Giovanni Melina a a International Monetary Fund b European Central Bank Abstract Using regime-switching VARs that embed the response of monetary policy we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across contractions and booms. We also estimate ex-ante probabilities of expansions and contractions derived in association with different-sized and different types of fiscal shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to frontloaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in a downturn facing high-risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases. JEL Classification Numbers: E62; F41; H30; H63 Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth-friendly fiscal policy *Corresponding author at: International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20431, United States. Phone: +1-202-623-8568; Fax: +1-202-589-8568. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund (or of its Board) or of the European Central Bank (or of its Governing Council). Work on this paper was done while Giovanni Callegari was an Economist at the International Monetary Fund. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (N. Batini); [email protected] (G. Callegari); [email protected] (G. Melina). 1 We are grateful to Anja Baum, Fabio Canova, Peter Doyle, Paul Levine, Larry Kotlikoff, Julia Scmidt, Anke Weber and seminar participants at the International Monetay Fund, European Central Bank, DIW and University of Surrey for useful comments.
    [Show full text]
  • Sovereign Spreads and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity
    Sovereign Spreads and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity∗ Diego Anzoateguiy Rutgers University November, 2019 Abstract I analyze the impact of austerity on sovereign spreads. To do so I propose a model with strategic sovereign default and nominal rigidities where the government follows fiscal rules, which are estimated from data. I first analyze the theoretical implications of the model and find that austerity can be self-defeating only when austerity packages are persistent and the economy is expected to be in a recession with high fiscal multipliers. I then calibrate the model using data from Spain and estimate the size and impact of fiscal policy shocks associated with austerity policies. I use the model to predict what would have happened to spreads and economic activity if Spain had continued to follow the pre-2010 fiscal rule instead of switching to the austerity track. I find that, relative to the counter-factual, austerity decreased sovereign spreads and debt-to-GDP ratios even when fiscal multipliers where higher than one during 2010-2013. Overall, the results indicate that the likelihood of facing self-fulfilling austerity episodes depends on the magnitude of fiscal multipliers but is generally low. In fact, this probability is below 3% considering calibrations with overall fiscal multipliers lower or equal than 3. ∗I am grateful to Ricardo Lagos and Mark Gertler for their guidance and support throughout this project. I also thank Alessandro Dovis, Diego Perez and all participants to presentations at the SED 2019, 2018 7th Atlanta Fed Workshop on International Economics, Fall 2017 Midwest Macro, McMaster University, Rutgers University, George Washington University.
    [Show full text]
  • Attention All Landlords!
    JULY 2016 Inside: Local News Features – Histories & Mysteries – Food – Puzzles Attention all Landlords! You are invited to a FREE Landlords Open Day At our Newcastle branch on Saturday 9th July, 10am - 4pm Please call in or contact Stefan Knapper on 01782 622155 for more details Your award-winning local estate agent 36 High Street, Newcastle, Staffordshire, ST5 1QL Tel: 01782 622155 www.buttersjohnbee.com See inside for more details An independent magazine for the local community delivered to 10,000 homes and businesses in Clayton, The Westlands, Westbury Park and Thistleberry. What’s in this month ... 4 Lower Back Pain? 6 Open Day for Landlords 8 Westbridge Furniture 10 Wines Etc - Gin Showcase If you have any news, events or anything else that 12 Like a bit of Spice? you would like to see included in the next issue 14 Local History please contact: [email protected] 16 Cool Facts 18 Gemstone of the Month 20 Newcastle Town Centre Junction 15 Limited 22 St. Luke’s Hartwell, Harrowby Drive, The Westlands ST5 3JU 24 Spear Travels Advertising & Editorial, 26 Pattens – Wolstanton & Stone What’s On and General Enquiries: 28 Horoscopes 01782 625 482 or 07511 452 598 30 Gardening Features Editor: 32 Recipe [email protected] • 07511 452 598 34 Stinging Nettle Uses Design: 36 FJ Flooring, Harlo Sliding Doors [email protected] • 07787 334 218 38 Puzzle Page 40 Getaway Corner We would like to thank all the businesses who have advertised in Junction 15 and/or provided 42 Kids’ Page content. Every care is taken to ensure accuracy but Junction 15 cannot accept responsibility for any loss damage or omission in any advert or editorial.
    [Show full text]
  • Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy
    This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Monetary Policy Rules Volume Author/Editor: John B. Taylor, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-79124-6 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/tayl99-1 Publication Date: January 1999 Chapter Title: Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy Chapter Author: Nicoletta Batini, Andrew Haldane Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7416 Chapter pages in book: (p. 157 - 202) 4 Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy Nicoletta Batini and Andrew G. Haldane 4.1 Introduction It has long been recognized that economic policy in general, and monetary policy in particular, needs a forward-looking dimension. “If we wait until a price movement is actually afoot before applying remedial measures, we may be too late,” as Keynes (1923) observes in A Tract on Monetary Reform. That same constraint still faces the current generation of monetary policymakers. Alan Greenspan’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in 1994 summarizes the monetary policy problem thus: “The challenge of monetary policy is to inter- pret current data on the economy and financial markets with an eye to antici- pating future inflationary forces and to countering them by taking action in advance.” Or in the words of Donald Kohn (1995) at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: “Policymakers cannot avoid looking into the future.” Empirically estimated reaction functions suggest that policymakers’ actions match these words. Monetary policy in the G-7 countries appears in recent years to have been driven more by anticipated future than by lagged actual outcomes (Clarida and Gertler 1997; Clarida, Gali, and Gertler 1998; Orphanides 1998).
    [Show full text]
  • The Economics of Climate Change
    DECEMBER 2019 Carbon calculus P. 6 Fifty shades of green P.12 The adaptive age P.20 The Economics of Climate Contents We should treat the natural world as we would the economic world and protect our natural 4 capital. THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE 4 The Greatest Balancing Act 22 Investing in Resilience Nature and the global economy Disaster-prone countries are strengthening David Attenborough and Christine Lagarde their ability to withstand climate events Bob Simison 6 Carbon Calculus For deep greenhouse gas emission reductions, 26 Climate Change and Financial Risk a long-term perspective on costs is essential Central banks and financial regulators are starting Kenneth Gillingham to factor in climate change Pierpaolo Grippa, Jochen Schmittmann, and 12 Fifty Shades of Green Felix Suntheim The world needs a new, sustainable financial system to stop runaway climate change 30 Reaping What We Sow Mark Carney Smart changes to how we farm and eat can have a huge impact on our planet 16 Putting a Price on Pollution Nicoletta Batini Carbon-pricing strategies could hold the key to meeting the world’s climate stabilization goals 34 Nature’s Solution to Climate Change Ian Parry A strategy to protect whales can limit greenhouse gases and global warming Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Connel Fullenkamp, and Sena Oztosun Subscribe at www.imfbookstore.org/f&d Read at www.imf.org/fandd Connect at facebook.com/FinanceandDevelopment FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT A Quarterly Publication of the International Monetary Fund December 2019 | Volume 56 | Number 4 DEPARTMENTS
    [Show full text]
  • Summary of Papers Presented at the Second Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy
    153 Summary of Papers Presented at the Second Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy Gregg Forte, of the Board’s Division of Research and INFORMATION AND LEARNING Statistics, prepared this article. In the conference’s first session, ‘‘Information and The International Research Forum on Monetary Learning,’’ two papers considered the conduct of Policy held its second conference on November 14 monetary policy during the high inflation and high and 15, 2003. The organization is sponsored by the unemployment (stagflation) of the 1970s. In both European Central Bank (ECB); the Board of Gov­ papers, the authors note the wide agreement today ernors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB); the that underlying productivity growth had fallen in the Center for German and European Studies (CGES), at early 1970s and that monetary policy was too accom­ Georgetown University, in Washington, D.C.; and the modative given the resultant narrowing of the output Center for Financial Studies (CFS), at the Goethe and unemployment gaps. Fabrice Collard and Harris University, in Frankfurt. It was formed to encourage Dellas create a model that can explain the conduct of research on monetary policy issues that are relevant monetary policy in the 1970s if the central bank is from a global perspective, and it organizes confer­ fairly insensitive both to expectations of rising infla­ ences that are held alternately in the euro area and the tion and to any perception of a wide output gap and is United States. also highly uncertain about potential output. The 2003 conference, held in Washington, D.C., Athanasios Orphanides and John C.
    [Show full text]
  • Initial Proposals for New Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in the West Midlands Contents
    Initial proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the West Midlands Contents Summary 3 1 What is the Boundary Commission for England? 5 2 Background to the 2018 Review 7 3 Initial proposals for the West Midlands 11 Initial proposals for the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent 12 sub-region Initial proposals for the Herefordshire, Shropshire, 13 Telford and Wrekin, Warwickshire, West Midlands, and Worcestershire sub-region 4 How to have your say 19 Annex A: Initial proposals for constituencies, 23 including wards and electorates Glossary 37 Initial proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the West Midlands 1 Summary Who we are and what we do What is changing in the West Midlands? The Boundary Commission for England is an independent and impartial The West Midlands has been allocated non-departmental public body which is 53 constituencies – a reduction of six from responsible for reviewing Parliamentary the current number. constituency boundaries in England. Our proposals leave seven of the 59 The 2018 Review existing constituencies unchanged. We have the task of periodically reviewing As it has not always been possible to the boundaries of all the Parliamentary allocate whole numbers of constituencies constituencies in England. We are currently to individual counties, we have grouped conducting a review on the basis of rules some county and local authority areas set by Parliament in 2011. The rules tell into sub-regions. The number of us that we must make recommendations constituencies allocated to each sub-region for new Parliamentary constituency is determined by the electorate of the boundaries in September 2018.
    [Show full text]