Science for Saving Species Research findings factsheet Project 2.1

Birds Red Hot List: The Australian most at risk of extinction

Key Messages

This project seeks to identify which avoid further losses, a sentiment and The birds at greatest risk of extinction Australian species are at greatest commitment that underpins ’s are endemic to islands or occur mostly risk of extinction in the near to recent Strategy. in the more intensely developed parts medium future (about 20 years), of southern Australia. Every one of This research project has garnered, and to identify priority actions that these species will require specifically integrated and analysed the may most effectively reduce the targeted actions to mitigate risks. knowledge of Australian researchers risk of such extinctions. expert in conservation to derive Identifying species at risk is a crucial In the last 200 years around 29 a first-ever estimate of the likelihood first step in avoiding their extinctions Australian bird species and of extinction over the next 20 years but must be followed by substantial subspecies have become extinct. for Australia’s most imperilled birds. investment by, and collaboration among, governments, non- Most of these extinctions could have Pooling the extinction-likelihoods government organisations and been prevented had conservation across species also allowed the the private sector. managers and our community been project to estimate that another more aware of the extent of risk that 10 Australian bird species could Without interventions, future these species faced, and if managers become extinct in the next 20 Australian bird extinctions are likely had been able to respond more years (by 2038) unless current to take place on islands, or in species effectively and rapidly to the threats management efforts and that occur in the more developed driving their decline. We want to effectiveness improve. parts of southern Australia.

No. 13: Swift parrot Photo: Heather CC BY NC 2.0 Flickr

No. 11: Black-eared miner No. 17: Helmeted No. 2: Orange-bellied parrot No. 6: Plains wanderer Photo: Ron Knight CC BY 2.0 Photo: Dylan Sanusi-Goh CC BY 4.0 Photo: JJ Harrison CC BY SA 3.0 Photo: Patrick K59 CC BY 2.0 Wikimedia Commons Wikimedia Commons Wikimedia Commons Wikimedia Commons

AUSTRALIA The 20 Australian birds most at risk of extinction over the next 20 years. Mean likelihood of Rank Species or sub-species extinction within 20 years (%) King Island brown thornbill 1 94 pusilla archibaldi Orange-bellied parrot 2 87 Neophema chrysogaster* King Island scrubtit 3 83 Acanthornis magna greeniana Western ground parrot 4 75 Pezoporus wallicus flaviventris* Houtman Abrolhos painted button-quail 5 71 No. 12: Mallee emu-wren Turnix varius scintillans Photo: Ron Knight CC BY 2.0 Wikimedia Commons Plains-wanderer 6 64 Pedionomus torquatus* Regent honeyeater Table 1. The 20 Australian birds 7 57 most at risk of extinction over Anthochaera phrygia* the next 20 years. Grey-range thick-billed 8 53 Note that these estimates are based Amytornis modestus obscurior on an assumption of continuation Herald petrel 9 52 of the level and effectiveness of Pterodroma heraldica^ current management. Black-eared miner 10 47 Manorina melanotis Northern eastern * 11 39 MDasyornis brachypterus monoides Mallee emu-wren 12 34 Stipiturus mallee* Swift parrot 13 31 Lathamus discolor* Norfolk Island boobook 14 27 Ninox novaeseelandiae undulata* Mount Lofty Ranges chestnut-rumped 15 24 Heathwren Calamanthus pyrrhopygia parkeri Fleurieu Peninsula southern emu-wren 16 17 Stipiturus malachurus intermedius Helmeted honeyeater 17 17 Lichenostomus melanops cassidix* Cocos buff-banded rail 18 17 Hypotaenidia philippensis andrewsi Western bristlebird 19 16 Dasyornis longirostris Alligator Rivers yellow chat 20 15 crocea tunneyi*

^ Refers to Australian breeding population. Australia’s Threatened Species Strategy (2016) includes ten birds from Table 1 as priorities species (marked*). Locations of the 20 Australian birds at greatest risk of extinction

Figure 1. Locations of the 20 Australian birds at greatest risk of extinction This map shows the number of birds occurring in each Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australian (IBRA) subregion (CK – Cocos (Keeling) Islands. CI – Christmas Island, NI – Norfolk Island).

A consistent method to identify species at most risk of extinction

The methods developed in this To date, this project has provided project are being applied to identify estimates of extinction risk for extinction risk for species in other Australian birds and mammals. taxonomic groups. In general, the information available for threatened species in these In this project we obtained estimates groups is more substantial than for of likelihood of extinction through other threatened species in other an expert elicitation process. We were groups (such as fish or insects). able to complement this approach with estimates derived from the However, even for the relatively application of existing global well-known groups such as birds protocols for and mammals, there are significant assessments (IUCN Red List of information gaps – in knowledge Threatened Species and NatureServe). and population size and trajectories, the threatening factors that are most These approaches provide broadly imperilling the species, and the comparable estimates, though effectiveness of management actions all have constraints and sets of that seek to control such threats – assumptions. Therefore, the use of that markedly constrain our ability several complementary approaches to predict the future for these is more likely to provide a robust species. It is difficult to predict assessment of extinction risk: the the future if we don’t know well future of any species is not always the past or the present. straightforward to predict. No. 7: Regent honeyeater Photo: Jessica Bonsell CC BY 3.0 Wikimedia Commons No. 13: Swift parrot Photo: Heather CC BY NC 2.0 Flickr

Twenty-nine Australian bird species (or subspecies) have become extinct in the last 200 years. Future extinctions are more likely to be avoided if we can identify the birds at greatest risk.

Further Information For more information contact Prof Stephen Garnett – [email protected]

This project is supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.